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Geez! When this drops it DROPS!!
Management has been silent so I haven't a clue.
I'm still holding, not much choice. Avg about $11.
Loading more here I think...
One of the analysts commented on something of that
order. I was so mad at them I hardly read their blather,
one said it was because of the mild winter, which is BS
as most OXF coal goes by barge to electric plants. They
just got tarred and feathered along with the other coal
and mining companies and it could have been handled
better, by the MMs handling the trades. I day trade the
pennies sometimes, so know how the game should be
played. The guys that handled this were amateurs.
I believe contracts are renewed around February for coal
companies. We need an expert. OXF has not been a
partnership long enough to really chart it.
It may very well be a cyclical play that is best to avoid during certain times of the year,gotta check and backtest it.
I generally try to think like Warren Buffet would when
looking at a stock. I did some good DD on this one, they
took a hit last year about this same time, and the experts
downgraded it then. I was impressed by the CEO coming
out and explaining in common language what was going
on, how they were going to deal with it, and that they had
so much confidence in the company and the men they
would just leave the divi alone and make it up later. Good
management can overcome weather and weak markets.
I should know this because my family have farmed here
for hundreds of years. OXF pulled it off and should do all
right this time too. But next year I may sell early in the
year and buy back in March to save the strain.
I did ok,but could have been a great play,wasnt believing it at 7 either,realistically from a balance sheet and guidance perspective the 9 area should have held,the drop to 7 was weird,implying insiders or those in the know were dumping and the hit the coal sector as a whole was taking didnt help,coal seems to have found bottom and turned and if the divi announcement is any where near half or better than in 2011 this sees 12 quick,if they keep divi and repeat that guidance will be ok then back to 16 for u,good luck,considering buying back in for a long position, i gotta stop thinking short term,lol
I kept averaging down 100 shares at a time until I just
gave up trying to find bottom at$7.90. Even when it closed
at $7.01 one day I didn't believe them. I finally had $25,000
in this thing and seriously, the wife, who usually doesn't
give a crap what I do, stopped talking. Now that it is on the
way back, if the divi stays up and I collect on 2300 shares
I'll feel like a genius. Got to get above $11 though. Hope
the ride was better for you
nice recovery from the abyss,hope u are near break even or green ( assuming u added near lows)
Slowly crawling back up. Those charts were no help as
it crashed to the bottom, and I don't expect much on the
way up. This is still dependent on the dividend announced
in a week or so.
Woohoo! Nice $9.00 print right there at the end!
Yes, I see that. Momentum could carry the price through to perhaps the 84 candle MA on the hourly chart at around $10. The market is now Overbought and momentum has slowed and bearish tension can be seen in the MACD so, based on the hourly chart (below) whether or not the price goes higher or stops right here, there will most likely be a correction in the price. So, the key will be to watch where it corrects to and how firm the support is following the correction. If we get a normal Fibonacci correction, and firm support on good volume, then we could have a bull market for while as the current price may very well be considered undervalued in the eyes of investors. What we have probably seen so far, is a short covering rally and a few swing traders playing the bounce. The price correction will tell a story of the future of the stock. Options are: a normal price correction, a drop back to recent lows and a double bottom formation, spike below recent lows and an immediately rally back, a very quick correction and a continued rally and formation of a V-bottom on the daily chart.
OXF - 60 min Candlesticks
Bounced the $2.00 in PPS since the low low PPS of $7.00 was touched.
$9.00! NICE...NOW LET'S GET TO $10.00
Well brotheirs...lost a little bit of steam towards the end there but IMHO it was prolly just so it could pick up a few more coals.
cool, i took 8.80, only had a few,nice move off 7, wouldn't surprise me to see 10 in short order, drop was way overdone
Still waiting for $10
OXF doing well indeed.
Guess we finally found bottom. Thank goodness.
Nice bounce in today.. Wish I checked scans last night... waaaa
WLT trying to get off bottom,should help OXF,PCX,JRCC, of course word from board on divi would help
If some of my other POshits would get going I'd have more powder to add for the bounce here!
I think that the market downside should already be priced in... a few times over. lol
Just hold tight and dont buy on margin, you will make moneys if you wait this out
doesn't help when the rest of the market is selling too.
This is horrid... like a never-ending selling volume...
this could be bottoming out. Volume seems low thus far, and if we stay in this trading pattern for the day, we have a nice star forming. tomorrow could start a nice bounce. ...we will see.
def. on watch
Another day in Dogpatch.
I bought 3 times over the past two days. Selling is the question! lol
Well, I didn't buy any today, so that's a start towards my
rehabilitation. That $8 looks awfully tempting. As I do
math every once in awhile, I realize how tough it gets to
successively average down when one starts at $17.50
and one is so happy with the dividend one follows it
down. I never wanted to have this much in any one stock.
Mostly as I will be stuck for awhile and can't pick up
some bargains. I was just reading Warren Buffets advice
to stockholders, linked here:
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/02/27/25-must-read-quotes-from-buffetts-letter-to-share.aspx
OXF holders would do well by scrolling down and read
"On committing to bad investments." it applies to OXF
as I see it. If this recovers, this will be just a bad dream.
For the rest of you, I'd be looking hard to buy in just as
soon as they figure out what the divi will be. This board
was dead but should be followed now and checked for
news.
I'm sticking it out but sorry you feel that way Hope your wife doesn't give you the silent treatment for too long!
I have decided to pretty much sit this out and wait for a
decision from management about the divi. Even if it is
reduced it will be better than most. I think the know every
thing analysts don't know the nature of a partnership. This
is not an ordinary common stock.
We're green! F*CK the downgrade!
Well in the meantime there's nothing wrong with collecting a dividend.
I disagree with you in today's environment. I particularly watch stocks for bounces and this one is a very poor candidate with big downgrades from the only analysts following it, poor earnings and guidance and looking at performances of IPOs the past few years. If the company has good management, it may be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat. But I see it dropping further before anything good happens. Best to sell now and re-buy later if you like the company. I don't mind being wrong, so best of luck to you.
I could be completely wrong here but I don't think it will really affect things much...I think Wednesay's drop was so drastic that it has these "downgrades" priced in already. Other folks that like to bottom feed could look at this as a buying opportunity as well...that's all I'm saying. I don't have my life savings invested here so to me I can wait until this gets to $12 again as I bought in at only $9.85 lol...worst case senario this never bounces back and it will be my tax loss for 2012...in any case I'm not gonna worry too much...
I'm pretty sure that the most DD the average investor does
is watch Cramer and read the headlines, deep DD is
skimming a email. Electronic trading has it's faults.
I also want to fault the MMs on this one. They are out of
their league. As dirty as they play the game, the MMs on
promoted OTC's are at least skilled enough to steer the
trading. These guys are all over the map! I don't have
L2 for NYSE stocks because I don't day trade them, but
even if I did, I would bet it wouldn't help.
All the other headwinds are tough enough, but when an analyst cuts his tgt by 60% or so ...
Like he wasn't paying attention until all of a sudden.
Those jerks shouldn't be allowed to have such influence.
I just give up. Running out of day here so moved up and
filled at $8.65 just as it dropped another dime. This is
going to attract shorters and drive it lower, I'm afraid.
Textbook case of analysts destroying a stock nobody
cared about before.
Men from the boys...men from the boys.
That is a good chart and food for thought. If it dips again
to today's low, I might get my pps low enough to get out
of here alive. Glad you called in an expert.
Now it is time for management to restore confidence and
say they will keep the divi the same, pay someone (Me, me,
please choose me!) to write an article for Seeking Alpha
saying how great the company is, and watch the stampede.
Will be week or two though, I think.
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