Ore fka ORE

[nrcmedia]

thanx Bud that's a nice presentation

[nrcmedia]

Sorry I meant $2.50....

[nrcmedia]

Moving on up $2.45 today...just starting to feel the wind in the sails.

[nrcmedia]

Just broke through $3 on the ASX

[nrcmedia]

:)

[nrcmedia]

and this.......

LONDON, April 6, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Driven by a surge in sales volume of new energy vehicles in China, the upstream material- lithium carbonate was in short supply in the fourth quarter of 2015 with soaring prices. Global lithium carbonate output increased by 12.3% year on year to 202,800 tons in 2015 and is expected to arrive at 244,200 tons in 2016, 288,900 tons in 2017, and 341,000 tons in 2018, a rise of 20.4%, 18.3%, and 18.4% from a year ago, respectively.

The booming sales of new energy vehicles worldwide will boost lithium carbonate consumption significantly. According to estimates, every 100,000 new energy vehicles (electric bus (40%), electric sedan (20%), hybrid bus (25%), and hybrid sedan (15%)) will create a demand of 5,000 tons to 8,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate, about a rise of 5%-8% in global demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate.

The price of lithium carbonate in China has been going straight up since Oct 2015 with that of industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate rising substantially (to RMB120,000/t and RMB150,000/t in Jan 2016, respectively, when battery-grade lithium hydroxide was quoted at RMB140,000/t, compared with the bottom price of lithium carbonate standing at RMB50,000/t). It is expected that global demand for lithium carbonate will outpace supply during 2016-2017, leading to a continued price rise during this period. As new lithium carbonate capacities are gradually released after 2017, the price will tend to stabilize.

Global lithium resources are primarily concentrated in Chile and China. However, as the Chinese lithium carbonate manufacturers are restrained by production technology, the supply of capacity is limited and Chile and Australia hold the lion's share of global capacity. The world's top3 players- SQM, FMC, and Rockwood together seize more than 56% market share, which give them a strong bargaining power over downstream companies and powerful pricing power and allow them to adjust prices according to market supply & demand and changes in production costs. Global lithium carbonate companies have successively expanded capacity so as to meet ever-increasing market demand in recent years. Meanwhile, a large number of newcomers outside the industry build new capacity and get involved in lithium carbonate business, thus reducing the concentration of the industry.

Chinese lithium carbonate suppliers can be principally divided into two categories: salt lake providers represented by Tibet Urban Development and Investment, spodumene providers represented by Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries and Galaxy Resources. The exploitation of salt lakes in China is still in its infancy with small capacity, while spodumene providers represented by Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries are relatively competitive.

In 2014, China produced 43,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year rise of 16.5%, 23,000 tons of lithium hydroxide monohydrate, up 4.5% over the previous year and mainly concentrated in Sichuan, and 2,600 tons of lithium metal, an increase of 13% from a year ago, compared with global output of around 4,000 tons. An output of 49,000 tons and apparent consumption of 74,000 tons caused a supply gap of 25,000 tons in 2015, and the gap is expected to reach 31,400 tons in 2020, creating brisk demand for imports.

We believe that as the Chinese government scales up its support for new energy vehicles, the demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate will be a tipping point. China's demand for battery-grade lithium carbonate was about 27,800 tons in 2015 and is expected to exceed 100,000 tons in 2020. The country's total demand for lithium carbonate will increase at annual rate of 20% over the next couple years, higher than the global average and approximating 167,000 tons in 2020.

Global and China Lithium Carbonate Industry Report, 2016-2020 by ResearchInChina highlights the followings:
Global and China's lithium carbonate supply and demand, supply gap, the demand for lithium carbonate from downstream sectors, especially new energy vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics;
Global and China's competitive landscape, including market share of foreign and domestic companies, capacity planning, market pattern, etc.;
China's lithium carbonate imports and exports, covering import/export value, prices, sources, destinations, etc.;
China's production costs of lithium carbonate with lithium extracted from ores and from salt lake brine, price trends, etc.;
China's lithium battery industry, including shipments, technology routes, market pattern, etc.;
Operation, technology, development planning, and output & sales of 8 lithium carbonate players in the United States, Chile, Australia, etc.;
Operation, technology, development planning, and output & sales of 14 Chinese lithium carbonate companies.
Download the full report: https://www.reportbuyer.com/product/116355/

[nrcmedia]

This should wake people up........

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3963851-lithium-miners-booming-lithium-spot-prices-rise-lithium-companies-buy

[bud357]

Nice presentation Of Argentina Lithium and shows Salt lakes

http://www.orocobre.com/PDF/Pres16Mar16_Hydrominex_SaltLakesPresentation.pdf

[bud357]

NRC is there a connection to Oracobre and Orezone Gold Corporation ?

I see the news section above has there news posted.

[nrcmedia]

nrcmedia-April 6, 2016


The Lithium Frenzy…separating Truth from Fiction

A few decades ago there was an attempt to design electric cars….an utter and complete failure….according to the automobile industry.
Fast forward to 2016, and you would think that earlier experiment was a complete success. Why such a disparity in history and the present? Part carbon….part oxygen. You might say the world governments thought they had more important things to do than fret over the quality of air we breathe being coaxed on by the oil companies. Other than the few pioneers, who were handed their heads after this brief experiment in EVs, the auto industry had decided it knew best. That was of course before Chrysler and GM were bailed out by the government. Now that we have come to the conclusion that breathing is more important than speed and style…the EV industry is growing at an unprecedented rate. And don’t forget the ‘energy storage’ business. These revelations did not come easily. Modern day pioneers like Elon Musk were willing to bet the farm on the concept; and it now appears he was absolutely right in concept and timing. And now all that’s left to do is implement the vision. That is where truth separates itself from fiction.

Musk, in spite of his revolutionary thinking, had overlooked a couple of key elements in his vision. Primarily….a reliable supply of lithium for both Tesla and Solar City. In the sprint for success he overlooked the obvious. Or did he? Some pundits say he overextended himself with the gigafactory not having locked in a long term supply of refined lithium. Well sort of….but don’t forget Panasonic has been making the batteries for his cars and put up a large portion of the investment in the gigafactory along with Tesla. Maybe they know something they are not telling us. If you were to surmise that this modern day Edison was so brilliant….yet so short-sighted not to arrange a reliable supply of lithium you might be kind of right…but kind of wrong.

Before the 2014 announcement of the gigafactory location in Nevada, there was an investment made in a small mining company in Nevada through an intermediary called Orion Mine Finance back in 2013. This investment of close to $25,000,000 in a non-producing lithium mine struck some in the industry as a bit odd. As the story unfolded with Tesla’s gigafactory announcement, it became apparent to some in the industry that this investment a year earlier in this obscure mining operation might make more sense than they had thought. The investment trail through Orion Mine Finance and a little known entity called Red Kite threw a lot of people off. It was deduced by a few scholarly analysts that this investment had been made by Elon Musk attempting to secure a lithium supply close to the eventual home of the gigafactory. This actually made perfect sense with what we know today. However…that little mining company that had taken over some old Chevron mining leases turned out not to have the lithium processing technology it had promised. This is when things started to become a little sketchy for Tesla and Solar City’s built in lithium supply chain. When the facts became clear that this mining company had been developing a more experimental technology that would take a few years to test and prove its ability to extract lithium from the Nevada clay, Tesla decided to take a more pragmatic approach. This led to a different philosophy of procurement.

They decided to draft lithium supply agreements with different mining companies….i.e. their supply agreement with Bacanora Minerals, and more recently with Pure Energy Minerals that has a prospective mining site in Nevada. The only problem with these companies is, neither has an operating lithium mine yet. So this begs the question “How many of these supply agreements is Tesla willing to make?” Apparently….’many’. Since neither of the existing companies have exclusive contracts with Tesla, they can theoretically make as many supply agreements as they want and see which supplier comes through….but that could get touchy with the orders coming through on the new Model 3 and the Powerwall demand from Solar City, another Musk company.

This would beg the question “why don’t they just make a deal with one of the major lithium suppliers?”
Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (NYSE:SQM) extracts lithium from the Salar de Atacama in Chile’s Atacama desert, while Rockwood Lithium, now owned by Albemarle (NYSE:ALB), has the Planta Salar in the same region of Chile. In Northwest Argentina, FMC (NYSE:FMC) owns the Salar del Hombre Muerto in Argentina, and near-production Orocobre (TSX:ORL,ASX:ORE) has the Salar de Olaroz project.

They probably would…if they could. Turns out most of the lithium supply in the world is spoken for. Between Apple, LG, other electronic firms; and the other car companies in the world…supply is getting tight. I’m sure Elon didn’t fathom the ferocity of EV adoption worldwide…and the demand for lithium power storage. So what does this mean in a supply chain that is already maxed out? Well….partly it means those large suppliers running at full capacity can try and crank out more processed lithium….or buy up smaller lithium miners and processors. Therein lies the rub. Which of these up and coming companies is capable of helping the larger producers increase their capacity…and which ones are just stock promotions? This is problematic with every new wave of inventions or popular ideas. Case in point…the marijuana industry. There have been numerous companies, both legit and scams, trying to cash in on legalization. There are probably 10 wannabes for every legitimate marijuana company out there. This is emblematic of the ‘lithium rush’ currently taking place in China, South America, Australia, and Nevada. Many of the new companies, or shell corporations, have turned into lithium producers overnight. This is a little worrisome. In their pursuit of the ‘lithium dollar’ many companies are promising new technologies and patented processing that they can never deliver on. The truth of the matter is that, only a few companies, outside of the majors mentioned above are capable of fulfilling these outsized promises.

The promised land of lithium production seems to be the ‘lithium triangle’ in Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile. Due to flooding last year in Chile and the limitations the government has put on lithium miners there, companies are looking for new deposits in Argentina. With the recent change in the Argentine government from a left-leaning socialist government to the new Macri led democracy, it seems to be the country of choice. Bolivia has found their lithium deposits prohibitively expensive to mine and have given up for the time being on exploiting those deposits. That leaves Argentina as the primary player in South American lithium mining currently. So in a modern day gold rush, companies from French mining conglomerate Eramet, the Korean steelmaker POSCO, SQM-Lithium Americas partnership, the Orocobre-Toyota alliance and many others are moving to setup mining and production in Argentina.

The other areas of interest are Australia’s spodumene deposits being mined at Mt. Caitlin by Galaxy Resources, recently making an offtake deal with Mitsubishi; and Lithium Australia touting their Sileach process in testing near the Mt Caitlin project. The newest area in the lithium spotlight is Nevada; where FMC has been producing lithium for several years and the newer companies like Pure Energy Minerals, Dajin, and Western Lithium have been trying to set up mining and processing operations to coincide with the opening of the gigafactory. It remains to be seen which of these companies, along with others yet to come, will grab the brass ring of lithium production there. There is one certainty in all this; lithium is the new world order in battery and power storage for the foreseeable future….and if you’re not risk adverse….there will be many opportunities. Only time will tell which new companies emerge successfully from this new paradigm and which fall along the wayside as spent energy.

[bud357]

The other board thought a report from Dundee stating that Orocobre was going to $3.00 a share. Thinking it was US, But it was the ASX not US and it reach $ 3.00+ @ ASX . So much for the experts Over there. Plus They think your DD is wrong. Not so. This is the True Orocobre Board. Best of luck with this endeavor. Elliott is Bud357.

[nrcmedia]

This is the new board for Orocobre. I left the OROCF board because of the idiot takeover by the high school debating club from some redneck ville in the Ozarks. Keep your eyes on production numbers coming up...and don't assume any of these companies Lithium Americas, POSCO, Eramet, Lithium Australia, etc will be operating in the next 5 years commercially....some of them will never operate.

[nrcmedia]

Another day...another penny. Waiting for the production figures out of Argentina. Since this is the only 'working' lithium processor in the area.

[nrcmedia]

A nice ascending triangle forming on this. Another shot at the 2.47 area will either poke through or retrace and then head higher.

March production numbers should be out any day now.........

[nrcmedia]

All who would wonder where we are .....just look at the line for Tesla'a new car. They need lithium for their battery packs.

[nrcmedia]

Since SQM has screwed Lithium Americas out of their land lease in Argentina in the name of 'partnership' (never gonna happen) puts Orocobre in the catbird seat as I have been saying all along. The plant is releasing March production numbers any day now.

[nrcmedia]

I should have clarified I was talking about the volume on the OTC here...not Canadian or Australian.

You're right about the balance point. It seems there is a ghost line in the sand that neither side has attempted to breach. Sometimes I think the market makers would screw their brothers if it meant making a few dollars for the day. I assume that eventually the production will dictate the price...but it's been a tough slog.

[123tom]

I know what youre saying...

but look at yesterdays volume of 600K...thats not considered small volume is it?

Next time, when they short it...watch that 2 dollar zone to see if it will hold. (2.25-2.00 area) Its a real balance point in this chart. There are many positive things I see in this chart. but also very subtle. price point around 1.90 area that held support in the recent rally. a delicate balance point. now closer to 2 dollars. but also,this is canadian dollar terms.

I would guess the short selling would be kicking in at this current topping zone. around 3.20,and anything higher is also big resistance.

[nrcmedia]

The numbers on March production should be coming out in the next week...I would surmise between 900-1000 tons. Whether they get to 1500 tons a month by years end will depend on the acumen of the new manager. The guy that was running operations this past year was the same guy that was in charge during the construction phase of the plant. I don't think he was an 'operational' manager.

It seems that every mining company in the world is trying to get into Argentina now. Since Macri was elected the whole economic dynamics have shifted....which is great news for established and new players in Argentina. During the construction phase of Orocobre's physical plant over the past few years they had to deal with import tariffs and transportation issues because of Cristina's government policies. Now that the lid is off....the bribery and other road blocks to normal business are being changed and becoming more transparent. (unfortunately bribery hasn't disappeared...just more transparent) as odd as that sounds.

[nrcmedia]

That would be great if you could throw in a chart now and again. I'm kind of stuck on gathering fundamentals on Orocobre and Galaxy these days....kind of like the stock...stuck in a never ending range. As much as I like to chart I just haven't had the time to do an intelligent chart analysis lately. If you have the time it would be appreciated. Every time it tries to move out of the range it gets slapped down. The CEO told me there were a couple of funds that were determined to short it on the ASX. Not sure what their goal is...but I think that's part of the issue, and the fact that there is so little volume on the OTC it's hard to get a reasonable take on it. I think if we could get some volume eventually it would be easier to make an argument.

[123tom]

NRC,I dont think I know how to do that....
but you might be able to as the moderator. or ask the admin how to do that. you mean in the Introduction info? not sure what you mean. Charts become old and stale pretty fast. so its not something to keep as a central picture. I just wanted to offer it as my howdy and good luck.

I'd be happy to post a chart from time to time if you like.
Orocobre chart looks interesting. like it wants to rally,but seems stuck in more of a range pattern in recent years. so far.

[nrcmedia]

very good point 123tom...would you be so kind as to post it on the preview of the page. My skills on the chart posting are not as fine tuned as yours. I appreciate it..

[bud357]

Had webcast with CEO but link won't work.

[123tom]

Greetings and good luck NRC


Whats a new forum without a chart to look at...

Good investing to all, at the new forum.

[bud357]

I just sent you an email, then i checked your board out , great you got it. Good job

[nrcmedia]

Thanx....just tying to set up a place where I won't be harassed by these herk and jerks that are pumpng Western Lithium aka Lithium Americas now.

[the cork]

Great board, nice job!

[nrcmedia]

This is an Australian message board which is quite a bit more informative than IHUB....lol

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/1st-order-6-200-usd-shipped.2727174/#post-17281524

[nrcmedia]

Orocobre's March production numbers will be ready for review in three days.

The way the stock is starting to react I would say someone has figured out that they will probably be pretty good.

[nrcmedia]

Welcome to Orocobre's Australian board. I will be posting articles directly from Australia financial markets and other countries that affect Orocobre. Because they have not registered with the US markets to release press information all of the 'real' information is through Australian and foreign press. Hopefully you are already on board here and have your stock in hand :) This is going to be at least a 3-5 year ride. Don't ask me what I think the stock will be valued at in 5 years because the answer might shock you.