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Oracle (ORCL) Stock Upgraded on AI Tailwinds
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | August 29, 2023
• UBS upgraded ORCL to "buy" from "neutral"
• ORCL's options pits have been extremely bullish in the last 10 weeks
Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) is up 2.2% at $119.36 at last glance, after UBS upgraded the software stock to "buy" from "neutral," with a price-target hike to $140 from $120. The firm noted the shares have "plenty of room to run," and pointed out that it looks as though artificial intelligence (AI) start-ups are increasing their use of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.
Out of the gate, ORCL traded at its highest level since July 19. However, today's pop is now running out of steam around $120, an area of consolidation since a June 15 record high of $127.54. Year-to-date, the equity is up 45.8%.
In the options pits, ORCL calls have been picked up at their fastest pace all year. The security's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.64 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than all other readings from the past 12 months. Today, 14,000 calls have been exchanged so far in comparison to 8,173 puts.
Of the 33 analysts in coverage, 14 carry a "buy" or better rating on Oracle stock, with 19 a tepid "hold." Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target of $125.63 is a 5% premium to current levels.
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$ORCL Breakout continuation this morning, those call buyers we spotted from last week up nicely on their positions
By: TrendSpider | August 23, 2023
• $ORCL Breakout continuation this morning, those call buyers we spotted from last week up nicely on their positions.
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ORCL 112 TANKING ANY NEWS?
$ORCL ORCL is currently dying, I have no news for it.$SPY $SPX $QQQ pic.twitter.com/XBolqxDjvH
— The Only Way (@GermanFinGuy) August 23, 2023
Oracle now the most crowded name in software but Bernstein has increased confidence
By: Investing.com | August 21, 2023
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) is now the most crowded name in software, according to Bernstein analysts in a note Monday.
The analysts' research note states investors now recognize the downside protection of Outperform-rated Oracle's enterprise business and that "organic, CC growth is accelerating."
"Oracle has been going through a complex transition to Cloud, which has created different growth rates for different parts of the business," they wrote. "This has been hard to model, and their acquisition of Cerner has only made it more complex."
However, Bernstein believes Oracle's organic growth is now accelerating, primarily driven by an increasing mix of fast-growing cloud revenue and "acceleration in the growth of Cloud, particularly OCI Gen 2."
"We saw a similar trend play out at MSFT as it transitioned to Cloud," said the analysts, who maintained a $242 price target on the stock. "Based on the current setup, management commentary, and execution over the past three years, we have increased confidence in the durability of growth and further acceleration in the current year. We think Oracle can sustain high-single-digit or even higher growth in the foreseeable future."
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FDIC says crypto assets pose 'novel and complex' risks to the U.S. banking industry
$ORCL
Oracle setting up nicely off previous trendzone resistance with sweepers slapping the ask on calls for September and December this week.
By: TrendSpider | August 20, 2023
• $ORCL Oracle setting up nicely off previous trendzone resistance with sweepers slapping the ask on calls for September and December this week.
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Oracle $ORCL breaking higher out of this post-earnings wedge and reclaiming its 50 day SMA...
By: TrendSpider | August 15, 2023
• $ORCL Oracle breaking higher out of this post-earnings wedge and reclaiming its 50 day SMA...
The relative strength is real.
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Oracle (ORCL) Stock Still Looks Cheap - Especially For Short Put Plays
By: Barchart | August 14, 2023
Oracle Corp (ORCL) stock still looks cheap to value buyers, given its 20x forward P/E multiple and Oracle's massive FCF generation. ORCL stock has been treading water lately, which is ideal for selling short out-of-the-money (OTM) put options.
For example, ORCL closed at $113.06 per share on Friday, Aug. 11, down just 4.1% from the end of July when it closed at $117.91. That means that traders who sell short OTM puts can collect extra income with near-term expiration plays.
In fact, I discussed this situation in our recent July 25, 2023, Barchart article, “Oracle Corp Stock Is Treading Water - Ideal For Traders Shorting OTM Puts.”
Huge Free Cash Flow
For example, I pointed out that Oracle made $8.47 billion in its fiscal Q4 ending May 30, on a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis. That was up 68% from the $5.028 billion in TTM FCF it made a year ago. This is because Oracle benefits from both the growth in cloud spending and as well as from AI-related initiatives.
It also works out to a 16.9% FCF margin based on its $50 billion in fiscal 2023 TTM revenue. So, going forward, we can expect that Oracle will generate a pile of FCF.
Oracle Corp - FCF Growth - Fiscal Q4 on a TTM basis
For example, analysts surveyed by Seeking Alpha forecast that revenue ending May 2024 will reach $54.11 billion, up 8.2% from $50 billion last year. So, if we apply this 17% FCF margin against this revenue projection, FCF could hit $9.2 billion.
That FCF estimate represents about 3.0% of its $307 billion market capitalization. Typically tech stocks like this can trade with a 2% FCF yield to a 3.33% yield. This is the same as trading at 30x to 50x FCF.
Therefore, on average we might expect ORCL stock to trade at least at 40x FCF, i.e., $368 billion (i.e., 40x $9.2 billion). That represents a potential 20% upside (i.e., $368b/$307b-1). In other words, ORCL stock could move up to $135.62 (i.e., 20% higher than $113.06).
One way to conservatively play this is to short out-of-the-money (OTM) puts, along with holding ORCL stock.
Shorting OTM ORCL Puts
For example, traders can look at selling short Sept. 1, 2023, expiration puts at the $109 strike price and then collect $1.19 per contract. That strike price is 3.59% below today's spot price of $113.06 per share (Aug. 11 close).
ORCL Puts - Expiring Sept. 1, 2023 - Barchart - As of Aug. 11, 2023
Here is how this works. First, the trader puts $10,900 or more in their brokerage account, either with cash and/or a mix of cash and margin. For example, holding 100 shares of ORCL stock will provide a certain amount of margin (i.e., typically 50%).
Next, they can enter an order to “Sell to Open” one put contract at $109 per share. The brokerage account will then immediately receive $119.00 from selling short the $109 put strike price.
OTM Put Yields And Returns
So, that represents about 1.09%, i.e., $119/$10,900 invested, with just 3 weeks until expiration. So, if that trade can be repeated every 3 weeks, it works out to an annualized 18.53% rate of return (i.e., 1.09% x 17x).
There is always the risk that ORCL could fall to $109 or below on or before Sept. 1. However, at least in that situation, the investor does not have to sell his shares in ORCL. They would be required to use the $10,900 to purchase 100 shares at $109 per share. That may or may not result in an unrealized loss, but it could also potentially lower the investor's average cost.
To help avoid this situation, a more conservative play would be to sell short the $108 strike price, or even lower. That strike premium is at $0.97, which represents a lower 0.90% premium yield (i.e., $0.97/$108).
And keep in mind that even if the short put play gets exercised, the investor can always turn around and sell short OTM calls, known as “covered call” plays. This can help ameliorate any unrealized loss.
The bottom line is that given Oracle's huge free cash flow, ORCL stock's upside is significant. One way to conservatively play this is to short OTM put options for extra income.
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Oracle Co. (ORCL) Short Interest Update
By: MarketBeat | July 28, 2023
• Oracle Co. (NYSE:ORCL) saw a significant decrease in short interest in the month of July. As of July 15th, there was short interest totalling 13,940,000 shares, a decrease of 14.8% from the June 30th total of 16,360,000 shares. Currently, 0.9% of the shares of the stock are short sold. Based on an average daily trading volume, of 10,310,000 shares, the days-to-cover ratio is presently 1.4 days...
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Canoe Financial LP Invests $10.83 Million in Oracle Co. (NYSE:ORCL)
By: MarketBeat | July 15, 2023
• Canoe Financial LP acquired a new position in shares of Oracle Co. (NYSE:ORCL) in the first quarter, according to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The institutional investor acquired 116,526 shares of the enterprise software provider's stock, valued at approximately $10,828,000...
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Oracle Corp. $ORCL Curling up while money is coming out (CMF).. held the gap though... tough call on this one. Maybe over 120
By: Options Mike | July 16, 2023
• $ORCL Curling up while money is coming out (CMF).. held the gap though... tough call on this one. Maybe over 120.
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Oracle Corp (ORCL) Unusual Call Option Activity - Traders See It As An AI Play
By: Barchart | July 12, 2023
Today, the Barchart Unusual Stock Options Activity Report shows that a large institutional trader has bought many call options in Oracle Corp (ORCL) that expire in 2 weeks - a significant bullish signal.
This could help push ORCL stock higher, especially since the company is now seen as a new AI (artificial intelligence) tech play.
ORCL stock is trading at $117.16 in morning trading on July 12. The Barchart report shows that a large tranche of over 5,900 call options expiring on July 28 were traded at the $118 strike price.
This strike price is 84 cents, or 0.71% over today's price, i.e., the option is trading “at the money” (ATM). The premium paid was $2.45 at the midpoint. Therefore, the breakeven point is $120.45, or just $3.29 over today's price (i.e., $120.45 - $117.16).
That means ORCL stock has to rise just 2.80% for the trader to have an “in-the-money” (ITM) profit.
Barchart Unusual Stock Options Report - July 12
This is not far for the stock to rise, and the trader can also sell out any time before the expiration period. That means that the investor is likely very bullish on ORCL stock.
Keep in mind that the number of options traded today is now almost 50x the existing number of call options that were outstanding. That can be seen in the “Vol/OI” column above. This shows that there is a large buyer out there.
Why ORCL Stock Looks Attractive
Recently analysts have been upgrading Oracle Corp based on its AI generative software initiatives in its HR (human resources) software. For example, RBC Capital Corp came out with a new report on the stock recommending it with an “Outperform” rating.
As many tech stocks have been rising based on their AI content, Oracle Corp was set to make its debut in this arena.
Moreover, out of 36 analysts covering ORCL stock, according to Yahoo! Finance, 10 of them have a strong buy on the stock. Moreover, their average price target is $124.66 per share, 7.9% over today's price.
Yahoo! Finance - ORCL
The fundamental reason for this is that Oracle Corp is now very profitable. For example, Oracle recently reported its fiscal year results for the year ending May 30. It showed that for the trailing 4 quarters Oracle had generated $8.47 billion in free cash flow (FCF).
Oracle FCF results - Investor Relations
As can be seen in the table above from the company, this FCF level was significantly higher than both last quarter's trailing 4 quarters' FCF as well as a year ago results. In fact, the $8.47 billion in FCF was 68% higher than the $5.028 billion it generated a year ago.
That means that the stock deserves to have a premium rating. In effect, the market is moving ORCL stock higher to give it that rating.
For example, analysts now project $5.56 in earnings per share for the year ending May 2024, according to Seeking Alpha. That puts ORCL stock on a forward P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple of just over 20x.
However, many of its peers have much higher ratings. For example, CrowdStrike (CRWD) trades for 68 times earnings, and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is at 58.5x earnings. So, it appears that slowly ORCL is starting to pick up some of its peers' higher valuations.
These could be several of the reasons why investors are buying large amounts of ORCL stock call options today. Either way, the fundamentals of Oracle Corp look very attractive here.
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Oracle Corp. $ORCL Testing that gap, possible short if it gets into it
By: Options Mike | July 9, 2023
• $ORCL Testing that gap, possible short if it gets into it.
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Oracle Insider Trading Alert: Oracle Founder and Chairman Larry Ellison sold shares of $ORCL worth approximately $208 million
By: Barchart | July 1, 2023
• Oracle Insider Trading Alert
Oracle Founder and Chairman Larry Ellison sold shares of $ORCL worth approximately $208 million. He used options to acquire these shares for roughly $52.7 million. This marks his 2nd large sale this month as he sold $640 million worth on June 22.
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Oracle spending 'billions' on Nvidia chips this year - Ellison
By: Stephen Nellis | June 28, 2023
MENLO PARK, California (Reuters) - Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) is spending "billions" of dollars on chips from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) Corp as it expands a cloud computing service targeting a new wave of artificial intelligence (AI) companies, Oracle founder and Chairman Larry Ellison said on Wednesday.
Oracle's cloud division is working to gain ground against larger rivals such as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Web Services and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT). To get an edge, Oracle has focused on building fast networks that can shuffle around the huge amount of data needed to create AI systems similar to ChatGPT.
Oracle is also buying huge numbers of graphics processing units (GPUs) designed to crunch that data for AI work.
Oracle is also spending "billions" of dollars on Nvidia chips but even more on central processor units (CPUs) from Ampere Computing, a chip startup it has invested in, and Advanced Micro Device Inc, Ellison said at an Ampere event.
"This year, Oracle will buy GPUs and CPUs from three companies," Ellison said. "We will buy GPUs from Nvidia, and we're buying billions of dollars of those. We will spend three times that on CPUs from Ampere and AMD. We still spend more money on conventional compute."
Oracle said last month it had struck a deal with Cohere, an AI startup founded by ex-Google engineers, under which Cohere will offer its AI software running on supercomputers inside Oracle's data centers with as many as 16,000 Nvidia chips each.
Other companies such as CoreWeave, which earlier this year raised a fresh $200 million of funding, are also targeting AI companies with cloud hardware that relies heavily on Nvidia chips.
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ORCL $1.2 Million Call • Strike: 115 • Expiration: 12/15/23
By: Cheddar Flow | June 26, 2023
• $ORCL $1.2M Call
Strike: 115
Expiration: 12/15/23
*At the Ask*
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Oracle $ORCL insiders sold a ton of shares this week, including a whopping $848 MILLION from the CTO and former CEO Larry Ellison.
By: TrendSpider | June 25, 2023
• $ORCL Oracle insiders sold a ton of shares this week, including a whopping $848 MILLION from the CTO and former CEO Larry Ellison.
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Michael J. Boskin Sells 90,000 Shares of Oracle Co. (ORCL) Stock
By: MarketBeat | June 24, 2023
• Oracle Co. (NYSE:ORCL) Director Michael J. Boskin sold 90,000 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, June 23rd. The stock was sold at an average price of $118.83, for a total value of $10,694,700.00. Following the completion of the sale, the director now owns 87,473 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $10,394,416.59. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available through this hyperlink...
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$ORCL Insiders at Oracle cashed in over $87,000,000 with the stock hitting new all-time highs.
By: TrendSpider | June 22, 2023
• $ORCL Insiders at Oracle cashed in over $87,000,000 with the stock hitting new all-time highs.
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Neville Rodie & Shaw Inc. Decreases Stake in Oracle Co. (ORCL)
By: MarketBeat | June 16, 2023
• Neville Rodie & Shaw Inc. decreased its holdings in shares of Oracle Co. (NYSE:ORCL) by 2.5% in the first quarter, according to its most recent Form 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The institutional investor owned 135,090 shares of the enterprise software provider's stock after selling 3,501 shares during the quarter. Oracle comprises about 1.1% of Neville Rodie & Shaw Inc.'s portfolio, making the stock its 25th biggest holding. Neville Rodie & Shaw Inc.'s holdings in Oracle were worth $12,553,000 at the end of the most recent quarter...
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$ORCL Opening OTM sweepers active in the 06/30 $128 CALLS
By: FLOWrensics | June 14, 2023
• $ORCL Opening OTM sweepers active in the 06/30 $128 CALLS.
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$ORCL & $ADBE $1 Million+ Calls
By: Cheddar Flow | June 14, 2023
• $ORCL & $ADBE $1M+ Calls
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Oracle teams up with Cohere to deliver powerful generative AI services for business
By: Investing.com | June 13, 2023
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) announced plans to develop powerful, generative AI services for organizations, in collaboration with Cohere, a leading AI platform for enterprises. This collaboration aims to automate business processes, improve decision-making, and enhance customer experiences.
Leveraging Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and Supercluster capabilities, the services will prioritize security, performance, and value.
"Only Oracle can offer a complete, end-to-end platform for generative AI, with advanced security, best-in-class data management, and a comprehensive portfolio of cloud applications able to address any business problem," said Clay Magouyrk, executive vice president, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure.
By integrating Cohere's models into Oracle's business applications, including Oracle Fusion Cloud Applications, Oracle NetSuite, and Oracle industry-specific applications, customers can quickly deploy generative AI to address their business challenges.
Oracle reported its Q4 earnings yesterday, with EPS and revenues coming in above the consensus estimates. Following the report, the company earned upgrades from several Wall Street firms, such as Goldman Sachs, Wolfe Research and CFRA.
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Oracle (ORCL) earnings impress Wall Street analysts
By: Investing.com | June 13, 2023
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) reported earnings for its latest quarter after the close Monday, topping profit and revenue expectations.
The software vendor posted Q4 earnings of $1.67 per share, $0.09 better than the analyst estimate of $1.58, while revenue for the quarter came in at $13.8 billion versus the consensus estimate of $13.74 billion.
Oracle shares are up more than 5% premarket, trading close to the $123 mark.
Here's how Wall Street analysts reacted:
Goldman Sachs analysts said his firm is upgrading ORCL to Neutral with a $120 price target.
"We are upgrading Oracle to Neutral (from Sell) after a solid F4Q print and 1Q guide that alleviated concerns key to our Sell thesis, which centered primarily on mounting CapEx requirements to sustain growth in Gen2 OCI (while also diluting gross margin) and unabating market share losses in the Oracle's core database business," they wrote.
"Coming off the 4Q print, we were encouraged by the pronounced step-up in IaaS revenue growth to +77% (CC) vs. high-50's from 1Q-3Q which we took as a clear signal that Oracle's advertised price/performance advantage vs. the Hyperscalers is resonating w/ the market (both net new and existing customers), which should position the company for durable share gains despite its late entry into IaaS."
Wolfe Research analysts maintained an Outperform rating but lifted the price target on ORCL to $140 from $130.
"ORCL reported a strong F4Q23 with OCI / IaaS Revenue, FCF, and EPS ahead of expectations. FY24 guidance on Cloud and IaaS were both ahead of our and investor expectations on the back of AI driving OCI tailwinds," they said in a note.
Deutsche Bank analysts kept a Buy rating on the stock but raised the price target to $135 from $120.
"Oracle delivered strong F4Q results driven by robust demand across the portfolio and in particular, OCI accelerating to +77% y/y cc (from +57% last Q)," they stated. "Very importantly, the company expects to sustain its organic ~30% (ex Cerner) cloud growth rate in FY24, with upside dependent on the ability to roll out capacity."
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Earnings Preview: Will Oracle (ORCL) Live Up to Cautious Optimism?
By: 24/7 Wall St. | June 9, 2023
Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL) is scheduled to report its fiscal fourth-quarter financial results on Monday. Analysts expect to see $1.58 in earnings per share (EPS) on $13.73 billion in revenue. That earnings estimate is the same as 60 days ago. The same period of last year had EPS of $1.54 and $11.84 billion in revenue. The company posted modest earnings surprises in the prior two quarters.
Over the past 52 weeks, the stock is up roughly 48%. However, it is up only closer to 31.5% year to date.
Despite a strong run, this top software stock is still offering a good entry point. Oracle develops, manufactures, markets, sells, hosts and supports database and middleware software, application software, cloud infrastructure, hardware systems and related services worldwide.
The company licenses its Oracle Database software to customers, which is designed to enable reliable and secure storage, retrieval and manipulation of various forms of data. Its Oracle Fusion Middleware software aims to build, deploy, secure, access and integrate business applications, as well as automate their business processes.
Last year, Oracle and Cerner closed an agreement for the former to acquire the latter through an all-cash tender offer for $95 per share, or approximately $28.3 billion in equity value. Cerner is a leading provider of digital information systems used within hospitals and health systems to enable medical professionals to deliver better health care to individual patients and communities.
A few analysts recently came out in favor of the stock:
• Barclays maintained a Buy rating and raised its price target to $113 from $85 on June 7.
• Jefferies maintained a Buy rating and raised its $105 price target to $125 on June 5.
• KeyCorp maintained an Overweight rating and raised its $98 price target to $105 on April 20.
• UBS maintained a Neutral rating but raised its price target to $90 from $87 on March 24.
The company currently offers a dividend of roughly 1.5%, or $1.60. It has a market cap of $290.2 billion.
Friday morning, shares of Oracle were trading up 2% at $109.67, in a 52-week range of $60.78 to $110.14. The consensus price target is $100.62, which implies downside of 6.4% from the most recent closing price of $107.48.
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Analysts boost Oracle stock targets into Q4 results
By: Investing.com | June 9, 2023
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) is moving modestly higher in pre-market Friday after several Wall Street analysts raised their price target on the stock.
While Oracle has outperformed the Nasdaq index year-to-date, the company’s stock underperformed peers like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and ServiceNow (NYSE:NOW).
Oracle is scheduled to report on Monday, June 12. Its stock hit a fresh record high on Thursday.
Citi analysts hiked the price target by $20 to $106 per share but remain Neutral-rated.
“Heading into Q4 we see a fairly balanced set-up with reseller survey mixed and ongoing macro headwinds, though we note intra-Q conference inputs were stronger on cloud with uptake of maintenance->cloud discount conversion program,” they said in a client note.
“We maintain our Neutral rating, awaiting more confidence in modernization of on-prem database workloads + OCI margin upside, which could be dependent on uptake of higher margin PaaS/DB services.”
Piper Sandler analysts raised the target to $130 per share.
“We have increasing conviction in our bull-thesis that a cloud shift can improve revenue growth rates and drive a return to double-digit EPS growth,” they wrote.
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Oracle (ORCL) 'continues to offer a strong risk-reward profile' - Mizuho
By: Investing.com | June 8, 2023
Mizuho analysts told investors in a note Thursday that they expect Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) to deliver a strong quarter.
The analysts, who have a Buy rating and a $116 price target on the stock, see Oracle delivering FQ4 revenue and EPS above consensus, driven by its strong cloud business.
"Although consensus for Cloud Services and Support revenue implies accelerating growth of 21% Y/Y, our checks indicate that both Fusion applications and OCI continue to gain traction," said the analysts.
"Despite the uncertain macro, demand for back-office applications remains robust with strong cloud migration."
They added that even though the stock has moved higher, they "believe ORCL, trading at 18x NTM P/E vs peers at 26x, continues to offer a strong risk-reward profile with its accelerating growth and AI exposure."
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Options Bulls Doubled Their Money with this Oracle (ORCL) Stock Call
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | May 31, 2023
• Traders collected a 100% profit with our ORCL recommendation
• At the time of our recommendation, ORCL had plenty of technical support in place
Last week, Schaeffer's Option Advisor subscribers doubled their money with our suggested Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL) August 92.50 call. Below, we'll dive into the telling points for this bullish bet on the software stock.
At the time of our recommendation on Thursday, April 27, ORCL had been charging up the charts since its September 2022 bottom, up 16% in 2023. The shares pulled back to support at their 30-day moving average, which was also the site of both previous support and resistance late last year. We also noted the equity's market cap near the round $250 billion level, which the stock later moved past at $92.60.
ORCL was also sitting above its February and March highs at $91, with ample room for upgrades on the analyst front. At that point, 13 of the 24 covering brokerages carried a tepid "hold" or worse rating. Short interest had increased both long term and in the two most recent reporting periods, up nearly 14% during the latter. A lower IV reading was also on deck for the shares, making it the ideal time to buy ORCL premium.
On April 27 when the trade was entered, ORCL was trading at $95.04. Since then, the stock has rallied to levels not seen since its December 2021 record high of $106.34, trading at $105.89 at last glance. We exited the position with a closing price of $104.08, allowing subscribers to collect a 100% profit.
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NBT Bank N A NY Decreases Stock Position in Oracle Co. (ORCL)
By: MarketBeat | May 27, 2023
• NBT Bank N A NY cut its stake in Oracle Co. (NYSE:ORCL) by 3.4% in the fourth quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 41,802 shares of the enterprise software provider's stock after selling 1,459 shares during the period. NBT Bank N A NY's holdings in Oracle were worth $3,417,000 at the end of the most recent quarter...
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Oracle Corp. (ORCL) Earnings coming looks like it wants to run into it
By: Options Mike | May 7, 2023
• $ORCL breaking out, nice volume on this move
Earnings coming looks like it wants to run into it.
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ORCL Repeat sweepers in 05/19 $97 CALLS Attempting to break out of consolidation
By: FLOWrensics | May 5, 2023
• $ORCL Repeat sweepers in 05/19 $97 CALLS
Attempting to break out of consolidation.
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$ORCL Oracle CEO Safra Catz cashed out over $470 million in shares this week
By: TrendSpider | April 14, 2023
• $ORCL Oracle CEO Safra Catz cashed out over $470 million in shares this week.
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Oracle Corp. (ORCL) Shares Are Under Heavy Demand
By: Lucas Downey | April 10, 2023
• Oracle Corp. (ORCL) has surged in 2023, jumping 17%. One chart tells the story: heavy demand for the shares.
Oracle Shares Attract Big Money
So, what’s Big Money? Said simply, that’s when a stock pushes higher alongside chunky volumes. It’s indicative of institutions betting on the shares.
Smart money managers are always looking for the next up-trending stock. And ORCL has many fundamental qualities that are attractive.
But how the shares have been trading points to strong investor appetite. As I’ll show you, the Big Money has been consistent in the shares.
Each green bar signals big trading volumes as the stock ramped in price:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Since October the shares attracted 9 unusual buy signals. Demand for the stock has been high. Those repeated green bars could mean more upside is ahead.
Now, let’s check out the fundamental action grabbing my attention:
Oracle Fundamental Analysis
Next, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. Meaning, I want to make sure the fundamental story is supportive too. As you can see, Oracle grew sales on a 1-year basis. The firm is expected to grow EPS at a healthy clip too. Take a look:
• 1-year sales growth rate (+4.8%)
• 1-year estimated EPS growth rate (+11.3%)
Source: FactSet
Marrying strong fundamentals with technically superior stocks is a winning recipe over the long-term.
In fact, ORCL has been a top-rated stock at my research firm, MAPsignals. That means the stock has buy pressure and healthy fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.
Follow the Big Money.
Oracle Price Prediction
The Oracle rally could have further to go. Healthy buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Shares could be positioned for further upside.
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Dash Acquisitions Inc. Acquires Shares of 2,529 Oracle Co. (ORCL)
By: MarketBeat | March 22, 2023
• Dash Acquisitions Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of Oracle Co. (NYSE:ORCL) in the fourth quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the SEC. The firm acquired 2,529 shares of the enterprise software provider's stock, valued at approximately $207,000...
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Oracle Co. (ORCL) Given Average Recommendation of "Moderate Buy" by Analysts
By: MarketBeat | March 20, 2023
• Oracle Co. (NYSE:ORCL) has been assigned an average recommendation of "Moderate Buy" from the twenty-eight ratings firms that are currently covering the company, Marketbeat Ratings reports. Six research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating and twelve have given a buy rating to the company. The average 12-month price objective among brokers that have issued ratings on the stock in the last year is $95.15...
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Oracle (ORCL) Stock Looks Fit For Traders Shorting Puts For Income
By: Barchart | March 21, 2023
Oracle Corp (ORCL), the cloud software and services company, reported stellar earnings on March 9. Nevertheless, ORCL stock has been essentially flat in the last month, trading at $87.46 on March 21 (midday). This presents short-put traders a good income opportunity with out-of-the-money put options.
Oracle reported that for its fiscal Q3 ending Feb. 28 revenues were up 18% year-over-year in USD and rose 21% in constant currency to $12.4 billion. Moreover, the company is now extremely profitable with non-GAAP operating margins at 42%. In addition, Oracle generated $7.3 billion in free cash flow (FCF) during the last 12 months (LTM). That represents a healthy 15% of its LTM revenues.
In addition, Oracle pays a consistent dividend which it just hiked by 25% to $1.60, giving ORCL stock a 1.78% dividend yield. Moreover, the company is still buying back stock, albeit at much-reduced levels compared to last year.
On top of this at just 17x this year’s earnings forecasts, ORCL stock is still moderately priced. All of these factors and earnings quality traits add up to a stock that is too cheap.
Shorting Out-Of-The-Money Puts
One way to conservatively play this is to short out-of-the-money OTM puts, as I described in my recent article prior to the earnings. That way, in case the stock takes a hit, the investor has a chance to buy in at a lower level, in addition to receiving immediate income.
For example, now with ORCL stock at $87.47, the $82.00 puts which I wrote about in the last article have dropped from 77 cents from March 6 to just 45 cents today. That represents a good return for investors in the past 15 days, or +41.6% (i.e., ($0.77-$0.45)/$077 x100).
Investors might want to roll this over (i.e., buy to close the short put position) and short a new further out-of-the-money put trade. For example, the April 21 expiration $80 strike price puts trade for 62 cents. This is a similar OTM strike price, i.e., over 8.4% below today's spot price, as well as a similar premium as before.
ORCL Puts - Expiring April 21 - Barchart - As of March 21, 2023
For example, it also means that an investor who secures $8,000 in cash and/or margin with a brokerage firm can then enter an order to “Sell to Open” 1 put contract at $80.00. The account will then immediately receive $62 per put contract shorted. That works out to an immediate 0.775% yield (i.e., $62/$8,000). If repeated each month for a year, this works out to an annualized 9.3% return.
Moreover, it allows the investor to buy in $80.00 if the stock falls to this level on or before April 21. This is a better situation than an investor who sells a covered call and then sees the stock fall to $80.00. At least with this short put trade, the investor will not have an unrealized capital loss. Moreover, the investor will have a lower breakeven, at $79.38 (i.e., $80-$0.62), which is 8.9% below today's price. However, keep in mind that if the short put trade is exercised, the investor could end up owning the stock at a higher price than the spot price.
The bottom line here is the ORCL stock is cheap and using short puts to buy in at a lower price is a good discipline, along with the ability to make income.
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Oracle shares down despite strong results and guidance; analysts say buy the dip
By: Investing.com | March 10, 2023
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) shares are down more than 4% in pre-market Friday following the company’s reported Q3 results, with EPS beat but slightly lower-than-expected revenues. EPS came in at $1.22, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.21. Revenue grew 18% year-over-year (up 21% in constant currency) to $12.4 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $12.43B.
Cloud services and license support revenues grew 17% to $8.9B, while Cloud license and on-premise license revenues came in at $1.3B (flat year-over-year). Cerner contributed $1.5B to total revenues in Q3.
“Oracle's cloud businesses now exceed $16 billion in annualized revenue. We remain the overwhelming market leader in Cloud ERP with approximately 10,000 Fusion ERP customers and over 34,000 NetSuite ERP customers. Our technically advanced and highly differentiated Gen2 infrastructure business continues to be in a hypergrowth phase—up 65% in Q3 in constant currency," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz.
The company also hiked its dividend by 25% to $0.40 per share, which will be paid to stockholders of record as of the close of business on April 11, 2023, with a payment date of April 24, 2023.
Oracle expects FY revenue between $13.61B and $13.85B, beating the consensus of $13.66B. The adjusted EPS is seen between $1.56-1.60, again above the $1.45 consensus.
Mizuho analysts took note of a strong cloud momentum and impressive guidance.
"We believe investors may be underestimating Oracle’s potential over the medium-term to generate solid top-line and cash flow growth, and exceed its FY26 targets," the analysts said in a note.
Guggenheim analysts said Oracle's report was "impressive" given the current macro environment.
"We’d be aggressive buyers, as we believe Oracle is a different kind of unicorn in that it’s not immune to the economy (no one is), but it does have something that should at least partially offset it – that is OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure)," they noted.
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Oracle shares down 4% following a slight Q3 revenue miss, dividend raised
By: Investing.com | March 9, 2023
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) shares fell more than 4% after-hours following the company’s reported Q3 results, with EPS beat but slightly lower-than-expected revenues. EPS came in at $1.22, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.21. Revenue grew 18% year-over-year (up 21% in constant currency) to $12.4 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $12.43B.
Cloud services and license support revenues grew 17% to $8.9B, while Cloud license and on-premise license revenues came in at $1.3B (flat year-over-year). Cerner contributed $1.5B to total revenues in Q3.
“Oracle's cloud businesses now exceed $16 billion in annualized revenue. We remain the overwhelming market leader in Cloud ERP with approximately 10,000 Fusion ERP customers and over 34,000 NetSuite ERP customers. Our technically advanced and highly differentiated Gen2 infrastructure business continues to be in a hypergrowth phase—up 65% in Q3 in constant currency," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz.
The company also hiked its dividend by 25% to $0.40 per share, which will be paid to stockholders of record as of the close of business on April 11, 2023, with a payment date of April 24, 2023.
Oracle shares down 4% following a slight Q3 revenue miss, dividend raised
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Earnings Preview: Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL)
By: 24/7 Wall St. | March 8, 2023
• Here is a look at what to expect when the following three companies post quarterly earnings after Thursday’s closing bell.
Oracle
Software and cloud-computing giant Oracle Corp. (NYSE: ORCL) has added about 19% to its share price over the past 12 months with virtually all the gain coming in the past six months. Shares posted their 52-week high a month ago, gaining about a third since posting a 52-week low in late September. The company may soon begin to feel some pressure from Microsoft’s introduction of its AI assistant, Dynamics 365 Copilot, which is set to bring OpenAI’s technology to the sales, marketing and customer service segments of enterprise-size businesses.
Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 13 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and 16 rate it at Hold. At a share price of around $88.40, the upside potential based on a median price target of $93.50 is about 5.8%. At the high price target of $120.00, the upside potential is 35.7%.
Fiscal third-quarter revenue is forecast at $12.52 billion, up 1.1% sequentially and 18.2% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are pegged at $1.20, down a penny sequentially and up 6.2% year over year. For the full 2023 fiscal year ending in May, current estimates call for EPS of $4.90, up 0.04%, on sales of $49.86 billion, up 17.5%.
Oracle stock trades at 18.0 times expected 2023 EPS, 15.8 times estimated 2024 earnings of $5.58 and 13.8 times estimated 2025 earnings of $6.41 per share. The stock’s 52-week range is $60.78 to $91.22. The company pays an annual dividend of $1.28 (yield of 1.45%). Total shareholder return for the past year is 20.96%.
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Oracle's Upcoming Earnings Are A Boon For Short Put Income Investors
By: Barchart | March 7, 2023
Oracle (ORCL) is coming out with its earnings on Thursday, March 9, for its fiscal Q3 ending Feb. 28. ORCL stock has been flat in the past month ending at $89.74 on March 6, but up 7.19% YTD. This has presented an opportunity for short-put income play investors, as I pointed out in my last article on Oracle on Feb. 14.
For example, Oracle's put option prices have been skewed higher than comparable out-of-the-money calls, as I wrote in the article. This indicates investors' ongoing trepidation about earnings, especially given the turmoil in the tech sector.
Moreover, this is still the case today, which continues to make short-put plays attractive to income investors.
Short Put Option Plays For Income
Last month we pointed out that the $80 strike price puts for March 17 were trading for 72 cents. The comparable 10% out-of-the-money strike price calls at $97.50 were at 52 cents. So the put option short trade was likely to yield more for the investor.
And so far that is the case. Today the $80 strike price puts are at $0.21 per put, whereas the $97.50 calls are at 31 cents.
So, that means that the put option fell from 72 cents to 21 cents, a 70% return for the short put investor. By contrast, the call option trade fell from 52 cents to 31 cents, just a 40% return. That shows that the higher premium put option, based on the distance from the spot price, was also the best return for short option investors.
Moreover, the existing situation for shorting out-of-the-money (OTM) put options going forward is also very favorable. For example, the April 6, 2023, expiration put option chain shows that the $82.00 strike price trades for 77 cents per put option. This strike price is 8.62% below today's stock price of $89.74, ahead of its earnings release.
ORCL Puts - Expiring April 6 - Barchart - As of March 6, 2023
That means that the investor who secures $8,200 with the brokerage firm in cash and/or margin, can enter an order to “Sell to Open” 1 put contract at $82.00. The account will immediately receive $77, so this represents a present yield of 0.93% (i.e., $77/$8,200 invested). That also projects out to an annualized return of 11.3%, assuming it can be repeated each month.
Moreover, the similar OTM call option is the $97.00 call strike, which is 8.0% higher than today's price. The premium that can be received is just 65 cents, lower than the 77 cents for the similar OTM put price.
Where This Leaves Investors In ORCL Stock Short Options
This indicates that investors are betting that ORCL stock will likely fall more than it will rise once the earnings come out on March 9. However, in the case of the put option short, the investor will not have to relinquish any shares should the stock rise more than 8.0%.
In fact, the investor has the opposite risk. If ORCL stock falls below $82.00 the investor will have to buy the shares at $82.00, no matter how low it gets. That could potentially lead to an unrealized loss situation. But, at least that is not a realized return as might be the case with the covered call.
Moreover, the investor can then take the long ORCL shares and short-covered calls. That can be repeated until the investor has made up for the unrealized loss. This is known as the “wheel” strategy.
As a result, all eyes will be on the March 9 earnings. If investors don't like what they see, which is not likely based on my prior analysis last month, the stock could falter. But right now this provides a good opportunity for short put income investors.
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Oracle to 'buck the macro trend' claims Morgan Stanley
By: Investing.com | March 6, 2023
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) may be able to buck the macro trend, according to Morgan Stanley, while Deutsche Bank said the company is becoming more strategic, on Monday.
The analysts released notes on the software company ahead of its fiscal third-quarter results on Thursday, March 9, after the close.
Morgan Stanley analysts told investors in a note that the firm's CIO survey, channel checks, and analysis of the drivers of license outperformance "suggest Oracle may be able to yet again buck the macro trend."
However, they believe the investor focus shifts more towards margins, gross margin recovery, and further opex savings "as they look to underwrite the current multiple."
"Oracle managed to largely buck the macro trend over the past several quarters, delivering durable Cloud revenue growth and upside on license and hardware revenue in Q2," the analysts, who have an Equal-weight rating and a $90 price target on the stock, wrote. "We see the key investor debates heading into Q3 earnings results to focus on three key topics: 1) cloud momentum; 2) license revenue upside; and 3) cost reductions from Cerner.
In addition, they said Morgan Stanley's checks indicate Oracle's cloud momentum should sustain in the third quarter, while their CIO survey and view of the potential drivers of the second quarter license outperformance "suggest the potential for upside ahead."
At Deutsche Bank, analysts told investors in a note that their strategic checks "reflect Oracle becoming more strategic despite NT deal slippage."
"Our F3Q checks suggest underlying customer interest remains very healthy if not improving, particularly for Cloud (both SaaS and OCI); however, the quantity of deals (specifically net new initiatives) slipping out of F3Q was elevated as customers navigate macro cross currents," said Deutsche Bank analysts, who have a Buy rating and $120 price target on the stock.
"Positively, we hear from multiple sources that ELA/ULAs (Enterprise/Unlimited License Agreements) are very much back in fashion after slowly waning over several years; we see this as an important proxy for Oracle's strategic relevance to its customers. On balance, customers seem to be making longer, more durable commitments to Oracle," they added.
Overall, Deutsche Bank remains firm in its constructive view on Oracle and sees several positive factors "driving the potential for organic revenue acceleration and EPS upside in FY24 and beyond."
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Ethic Inc. Increases Stock Position in Oracle Co. (ORCL)
By: MarketBeat | March 1, 2023
• Ethic Inc. lifted its holdings in Oracle Co. (NYSE:ORCL) by 6.4% in the 3rd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the SEC. The firm owned 91,946 shares of the enterprise software provider's stock after purchasing an additional 5,570 shares during the period. Ethic Inc.'s holdings in Oracle were worth $5,615,000 at the end of the most recent quarter...
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Oracle (ORCL) Stock Has Spiked Ahead Of Earnings Attracting Short Put Investors
By: Barchart | February 14, 2023
Oracle (ORCL) stock has spiked from its lows last October given the company's solid earnings, free cash flow, and cloud wins for the quarter ending Nov. 30. Investors are increasing shorting ORCL stock puts as an income play ahead of next month's earnings.
Oracle will likely report its fiscal Q3 earnings for the quarter ending Feb 28 by March 13 or earlier. As a result, options premiums are rising, but they are especially skewed to the put side over calls. This indicates investors in the stock have a feeling that ORCL stock price could peak ahead of earnings.
Fundamentals Are Strong
Oracle is an extremely profitable company. In its latest quarter, operating margins on a non-GAAP basis were 41%. This is a very high margin number, albeit it was lower than 47% a year ago.
Nevertheless, analysts project $4.91 in earnings per share (EPS) this year ending May 2023, and $5.68 next year. That puts ORCL stock, at $88.72 on Feb. 14, on a cheap forward multiple of 18x this year's earnings and 15.9x next year.
Moreover, free cash flow (FCF) is still extremely strong. Last quarter the company produced about $8.8 billion in FCF, which represented 95% of its net income. In other words, it is still gushing cash. And recently the company signed up new cloud customers of which the market is taking notice as it could keep that FCF growing.
Nevertheless, on a historical basis, according to Morningstar, ORCL stock is slightly higher than its average historical P/E multiple and has a lower-than-average dividend yield. This implies the stock could be peaking or might move.
As a result, put option premiums have been rising, making them attractive to short-put investors.
Shorting Out-Of-The-Money ORCL Puts
We like to highlight short-put side investments for cash-secured put writers when the put premiums are skewed higher than the same expiration period call options.
For example, the March 17 puts at the $80 strike price, which is almost 10% below today's price trade for 72 cents per put option. By contrast, the $97.50 strike price calls for March, which is a strike price that is 9.9% over today's price, trade for March 17 trade for just 52 cents. So investors at 10% away from today's price will make more money shorting puts rather than calls.
Moreover, the short-put investor will make a significantly higher yield. For example, the yield an investor will make on the put side is 0.90% (i.e., $0.72/$80.00). That works out to an annualized rate, assuming the investor can repeat the trade each month, of 10.8%.
By contrast, the covered call investor who shorts the $97.50 strike price calls will make just 0.586% (i.e., $0.52/$88.72), or 7.0% on an annualized basis.
As a result, shareholders who already own ORCL stock may either want to short OTM calls or else short put strike prices. But those that don't presently have a position might clearly find it more profitable to put up cash with their brokerage firm and short OTM strike prices to generate higher income. Even if ORCL stock falls, they have a chance to buy in at a lower price if their strike price is exercised.
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Oracle Co. (ORCL) Shares Sold by Capitolis Advisors LLC
By: MarketBeat | February 10, 2023
• Capitolis Advisors LLC cut its holdings in shares of Oracle Co. (NYSE:ORCL) by 60.3% during the third quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund owned 100,000 shares of the enterprise software provider's stock after selling 151,604 shares during the quarter. Capitolis Advisors LLC's holdings in Oracle were worth $6,107,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period...
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Cullen Capital Management LLC Raises Holdings in Oracle Co. (ORCL)
By: MarketBeat | February 9, 2023
• Cullen Capital Management LLC increased its position in Oracle Co. (NYSE:ORCL) by 2.4% during the third quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 60,260 shares of the enterprise software provider's stock after acquiring an additional 1,435 shares during the period. Cullen Capital Management LLC's holdings in Oracle were worth $3,680,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period...
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