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The Pullback. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 8, 2024
Oil is back after Israel pulled back some troops in Gaza and because Iran failed to follow through on threats to respond to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Lebanon. Yet to say the market is on edge is an understatement as supply tightness is clear as we continue to see ongoing threats to supply. Move Israel in oil prices are seeking to regroup it’s the market waits to see if there are any other shoes to drop.
There is also a lot of speculation in the market that the Energy Information Administration has been overestimating US oil production by almost 1 million barrels per day. As we know the Energy Information Administration has consistently had to adjust their production estimates from their weekly reports and now it’s very clear to many in the industry that the numbers that they have been reporting fall short. HFI Research points out that the EIA admitted that they didn’t survey oil production but used a model to come up with their equation the model has had run of overestimating production.
This overestimating production means that the supply situation based on current demand is much tighter than we had originally thought. If you look at the demand numbers from last week in the United States, they say hit an incredibly high 21,292 million barrels a day. So if the pattern of overestimating production continues and underestimating demand we could be in a very interesting situation.
So with the reduction of geopolitical risk, we’re back to focus on supply and demand which still looks exceedingly tight this week we expect to see crude oil supplies fall by 3,000,000 barrels. We also expect to see the same in products with a 3 million barrel drop in both gasoline and distillates refinery run should see an uptick of 0.5.
B technical pullback is happening because crude is overbought and because of the reduction of geopolitical risk in this type of situation is going to be important to see whether or not the market consolidates where we see some further downside are expectation is that we will consolidate at some point because the supply versus demand situation is too tight to ignore and it’s too dangerous to allow prices to fall because we’re going to need to squeeze out as much production as we can to meet demand.
Based on what we’re seeing in industrial metals and gold the markets as expected to see some industrial demand big strength in both aluminum and copper is giving the market some support in this one of the reasons why oil isn’t falling out of bed despite being very overbought.
Javier Blass at Bloomberg pointed out that Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trading company, has made more money in the last 3 years than during the past 30 years combined.
Gasoline prices are still above year-ago levels. AAA reports that The National Average was $3.598 slightly above yesterday and a year ago and about 5.7 cents a gallon a week ago.
You don’t have to go to Nova Scotia to see the total eclipse of the Sun but it might be a day that is not good for solar panels, sort of like when it hails or snows. The EIA reports that On April 8, 2024, a full solar eclipse will briefly but fully obscure sunlight to utility-scale solar generation facilities from Texas through Maine with a combined 6.5 gigawatts (GW) of capacity. In addition, the eclipse will partially block sunlight to facilities with a combined 84.8 GW of capacity in an even larger swath of the United States around peak solar generating time.
Solar-powered generators centered in the path of totality—where the moon will completely obscure the sun—will be affected the most because the moon will block all direct sunlight for more than four minutes. The partial eclipse could limit the sunlight in the path of totality for more than two hours. Areas around the path of totality will have varying levels of diminished solar generation during the eclipse. Because we know about the eclipse ahead of time, utilities have prepared and planned for the lost solar energy. Several grid authorities have released plans for how they plan to deal with the change in solar generation during the eclipse according to EIA. So, we have that going for us.
Natural gas rigs have fallen to the lowest level since January. Production of natural gas is starting to fall. Power burns for natural gas have been exceedingly high as low prices have encouraged demand we’re expecting to see an increase in supplies of about 15 BCF this week in the weekly report and it feels like the market is trying to put in the bottom. Still, the fundamentals in the glut is real so it’s probably best to be hedged with options.
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Energy sector price trend + seasonality is in perfect bullish alignment. BUT, has price gotten ahead of itself? IMO if you are long in this sector, expect some choppiness. If not, look for a potential buying opportunity if sector pulls back.
By: Jay Kaeppel | April 8, 2024
• Energy sector price trend + seasonality is in perfect bullish alignment. BUT, has price gotten ahead of itself? IMO if you are long in this sector, expect some choppiness. If not, look for a potential buying opportunity if sector pulls back.
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Looking to capitalize on the recent surge in the Energy sector? Here are some of the best performers for April:
By: TrendSpider | April 6, 2024
• Looking to capitalize on the recent surge in the Energy sector?
Here are some of the best performers for April:
$XOM 83% win rate over last 44 years
$CVX 83% win rate over last 44 years $COP 92% win rate over last 44 years
$XLE 81% win rate over last 25 years
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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | April 6, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 2, 2024.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 327.9k, up 5.4k.
After jumping 3.2 percent last week, West Texas Intermediate crude added another 4.5 percent this week to $86.91/barrel. This week’s gains followed last week’s decisive range breakout. The crude went back and forth between $71-$72 and $81-$82 for a year and a half before pushing through the upper end last week.
WTI has come a long way since bottoming at $67.71 last December. Conditions are overbought, but oil bulls have wrested control of momentum for now. As things stand, in the best of circumstances, they have a shot at low-$90s.
In the meantime, as per the EIA, US crude production in the week to March 29th was unchanged for four consecutive weeks at 13.1 million barrels per day; six weeks ago, output was at a record 13.3 mb/d. Crude imports decreased 84,000 b/d to 6.6 mb/d. As did stocks of gasoline and distillates, which respectively declined 4.3 million barrels and 1.3 million barrels to 227.8 million barrels and 116.1 million barrels. Crude inventory, however, grew 3.2 million barrels to 451.4 million barrels. Refinery utilization dropped one-tenth of a percentage point to 88.6 percent.
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Crude Oil forms a Golden Cross for the first time since August. The last Golden Cross sent Crude Oil soaring by 20%.
By: Barchart | April 5, 2024
• Crude Oil forms a Golden Cross for the first time since August. The last Golden Cross sent Crude Oil soaring by 20%.
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Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Reversal on Rally Above Today’s High
By: Bruce Powers | April 5, 2024
• Natural gas sees further weakness before finding support at 1.755. An intraday bounce suggests potential for a completion to the current pullback, but further confirmation is needed.
Further weakness in natural gas leads to support at 1.755 and an intraday bounce. The decline earlier in Friday’s session completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement before buyers took control. Natural gas is on track to close in the green if the close is above the open, as it is at the time of this writing.
The prior pullback triggered a bullish reversal after two days and the same may happen in this current pullback. If today’s low continues to hold as support, it will mark a successful test of support at the purple 20-Day MA and is a sign of improving short-term strength.
Rally Above Today’s High Signals Further Upside
Heading into next week, a bullish signal will be generated on a rally above today’s high of 1.82. That should mark the completion of the current pullback and set the stage for moving higher. Nevertheless, a rally above yesterday’s high of 1.85 provides greater confidence that demand is improving as it would also mark an advance back above the 50-Day MA, now at 1.84.
That should prepare natural gas for a rally above the most recent swing high of 1.91. It will trigger a continuation of the advancing CD leg of a rising ABCD pattern with an initial target at 2.08. A daily close above the 50-Day line would provide a key signal confirming an improving uptrend as the natural gas has traded below the 50-Day line since mid-January.
Weekly Bullish Reversal Intact
A bullish reversal triggered this week on the weekly chart and the week will end with a higher weekly high and higher weekly low, a sign of a developing uptrend. Support on the weekly chart was seen this week at the 8-Week MA. It is a sign of improving strength in the weekly time frame. However, the week is on track to close relatively weak, in the lower half of the week’s range and below last week’s high of 1.83. What it tells us is that the longer-time frame pattern has become more bullish. And the larger time frames impact price behavior in the shorter time frames. A variety of possible upside targets are marked on the chart. The first is at the completion of the ABCD pattern.
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Crude Oil Futures going for the first daily golden cross since August 2023
By: TrendSpider | April 5, 2024
• Crude Oil Futures going for the first daily golden cross since August 2023.
Price rallied another +20% higher after that.
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Called Out. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 5, 2024
Crude oil prices tried to retreat but rebounded after Peter Doocy at Fox News called out the Biden administration for reversing its “unwavering support for Israel” and asking about reports of a possible warning to Israel of a planned Iranian attack on Israeli soil. This was in response to a statement by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken that said that U.S. policy will change if Israel doesn’t change course and its war against Hamas. Mr. Doocy asked, “Did the CIA warn Israel or did President Biden warn Netanyahu today about an Iranian plan to attack inside Israel within 48 hours?” John Kirby: said “I’m not going to talk about intelligence matters, Peter. I think you can understand. Um, but, um, they didn’t talk.
Reports swirling about a possible attack by Iran on Israeli soil would be a definite escalation of the proxy war between Iran and Israel. That put the market in risk aversion mode causing stocks to sell off, oil to rally as people prepared for what could be a major price spike if this confrontation happens. The risk to oil flows, especially coming out of Iran, would be put at risk. Also reports that the UAE would announce a suspension of all diplomatic ties with Israel. It’s another blow to the Mideast peace process that showed so much hope under Donald Trump when they signed the Abraham Accords.
The US Congress is continuing to call out the International Energy Agency (IEA) and sent them another letter demanding more information as to why the IEA has abandoned its historical commitment to nonpartisan and objective analysis for climate policy advocacy. And while they were at it, they may want to call out our own Department of Energy for being blasted about the misleading way that they try to justify Biden’s electric car push when data is, at the very least, downright misleading, if not intentionally written in a way to hide the truth.
The Hill reports that Biden’s EPA can justify his new EV rules only by cooking the books. They write that, “Before federal regulations are implemented, they must be justified with an extensive analysis of costs and effects. The new Environmental Protection Agency rule forcing a massive shift toward electric vehicles is no exception. Weighing in at 1,181 pages, it is accompanied by an additional 884 pages of “regulatory impact analysis.” The EPA analysis justifying this rule is not unique in its length, but it is unique in its dishonesty. In a must read they wrote, “EPA claims that the rule will reduce total greenhouse gas emissions over 2027-2055 by 7.2 billion metric tons. But despite a long and disingenuous discussion of the purported adverse effects of greenhouse gas emissions, EPA admits that it “did not…specifically quantify changes in climate impacts resulting from this rule in terms of avoided temperature change or sea-level rise.” The reason for that failure is obvious: The answer would be embarrassing. If we apply EPA’s own climate model, with assumptions that exaggerate the climate effects of reductions in GHG emissions, the rule would reduce global temperatures in 2100 by 0.0068 degrees Celsius — an effect far too small to be detectable.
Yet somehow, the EPA claims that the rule will yield “climate benefits” of $1.6 trillion. How is that possible for a near-zero effect on temperatures? As with the entire Biden climate regulatory regime across all agencies, EPA multiplies asserted reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by the “social cost of carbon,” a fictitious number that supposedly measures damage caused by the emissions.
The Daily Caller reported that, “A government watchdog group has filed a complaint with the Biden administration over its use of a dataset frequently used to push its climate agenda. They wrote, “Protect the Public’s Trust (PPT) filed the complaint with the Commerce Department over the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) “Billions Project” dataset, which purports to keep track of natural [and climate] disasters that have caused at least $1 billion in damages going back to 1980. The billion-dollar disasters (BDD) data — cited frequently by the Biden administration to insinuate that climate change is intensifying and justify sweeping green policies — is based on opaque data derived from questionable accounting practices, PPT alleges in the complaint.
This is just some misinformation and geopolitical risk factors creating the potential for a major oil price spike that the Biden administration may be hard-pressed to stop. So far it looks like their plans are to try to cool prices or to try to look like they’re going to be tough on Russia, Venezuela and Iran while at the same time allowing those countries to export their oil or at the very least, their oil products.
The cancellation of the buyback for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve this week shows that the Biden administration must be very concerned about the global oil supply deficit. Supply deficit that was in part created by the government manipulating the market with releases from the strategic petroleum reserve before they were needed. Biden’s misuse of the strategic petroleum reserve angered OPEC and other oil producers and that is a reason that OPEC and Russia have continued to be very cohesive in reducing global oil output. By artificially lowering prices, it did not help with a demand response or a production response to the real market conditions. And while the Biden administration may have benefited from the short-term price drop, it’s becoming more apparent with the looming global supply deficit that the misinformation provided by the reporting agencies and the SPR left the market short of supply.
Javia Blass says that all this turmoil will lead the Biden administration into a predictable pattern of damage control. First, they stopped further purchases for the SPR, then they announced there would be no reimposition of Venezuelan oil sanctions. Blass expects what will follow is to put pressure on OPEC to raise production. When that fails and it most likely will, they will start putting pressure on U.S. oil companies again probably calling them price gougers or war profiteers.” Lastly, they’ll go back to the bullpen and start releasing oil from the SPR even though it’s been depleted to the lowest level in over 40 years. Now there are also reports that the Biden administration is talking about lifting its terror designation on the rebels if they just promise to stop attacking ships in the Red Sea. I am assuming that the Biden administration is saying please on that one.
Russia is also talking about limiting gasoline exports. This could be in response to the attacks on the refineries by Ukrainian drones. Russian refineries will not be back to full operation until June according to Russia and it’s possible that the attacks on Russian refineries have not stopped.
In other words, it seems like the oil markets are getting shot out of their complacency. The reason why I continued to keep a bullish outlook, even when the prices looked over bought, was because I could see that beneath all the noise and the rhetoric, the supply versus demand fundamentals were much tighter than the market was giving it credit for. The reason why we suggested to keep hedged was exactly the situation that has been developing over the past few months. Despite all the doom and gloom about the economy and the potential for peak oil demand, we could see pretty clearly based on global daily demand versus daily global production as well as global inventories, that supplies are tighter than they’ve ever been or at least in a generation. And while the market seems to think this happened overnight, it’s been a long time since it’s been developing. The sad part about this is that a lot of this could have been avoided.
Natural gas got a bearish report. But the market is holding on to hopes of more production cuts. Working gas in storage was 2,259 Bcf as of Friday, March 29, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 37 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 422 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 633 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,626 Bcf. At 2,259 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.
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Natural Gas Pulls Back After Failed Breakout Attempt
By: Bruce Powers | April 4, 2024
• Natural gas retreats, testing key support near 8-Day MA at 1.77, following bearish candlestick pattern.
Following Wednesday’s bearish shooting star candlestick pattern, natural gas pulls back to test support around the 8-Day MA (1.77). It has fallen back below the long-term downtrend line and continues to trade near the lows of the day, at the time of this writing. The current low for the day is 1.77. If the retracement continues next watch for possible support around the 20-Day MA, currently at 1.74. This is just the first day of a pullback, so another one or two days of weakness would not be surprising.
Failed Breakout Above 50-Day Moving Average
Natural gas turned lower yesterday following a failed attempt to break out above the 50-Day MA. That was the first time it was approached since late last year. It is not unusual for price to be rejected the first time a common moving average is approached after being away from it for a while. Currently, it is at 1.86 and was tested as resistance earlier in today’s session and rejected to the downside.
Weekly Chart Shows Demand Increasing
When looking at the 8-Week MA on the weekly chart the situation with natural gas gains some clarity. Notice that this week’s low successfully tested support at the 8-Week line with a low of 1.71. Last week, the 1.75 closing price was above the 8-Week MA for the first time since the week of January 22. This shows momentum beginning to switch from bearish to bullish as a potential bottom further develops. There is only one more day to the week with the current weekly pattern reflecting some uncertainty about a bottom.
Weekly Bullish Reversal Triggered
Nonetheless, this week’s advance triggered a bullish reversal on the weekly chart. A close this week above last week’s high of 1.83 would be a stronger close than one below that price level. Currently, natural gas is trading below it. The weekly chart also shows a higher weekly low and higher high, to go along with the recent higher swing low. Each is a bullish sign.
So far upward momentum has been muted, but that can change quickly once the 50-Day MA is exceeded for a second time. A double bottom pattern remains a possibility, while the first higher target is at 2.08, which completes a rising ABCD pattern.
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$WTIC $OIL - Latest Bearish Tri-Candle took us to the Daily 11/EMA (Ivory) which held and has since gone and tapped the $84.75 target and is aiming for the next at $88...
By: Sahara | April 3, 2024
• $WTIC $OIL - Latest
Bearish Tri-Candle took us to the Daily 11/EMA (Ivory) which held and has since gone and tapped the $84.75 target and is aiming for the next at $88...
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Natural Gas Breakout Potential Above 50-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | April 2, 2024
• Recent price action indicates optimism for natural gas, with potential for a breakout above the 50-Day MA and targets at previous swing highs.
Natural gas rallies to test resistance around the 50-Day MA with the day’s high of 1.88. So far, resistance has been seen off the high leading to a minor intraday pullback. Nonetheless, at the time of this writing, natural gas is on track to close strong, in the upper quarter of the day’s trading range, indicating it probably wants to go higher.
On Monday, sentiment improved as the daily close was above the long-term downtrend line for the first time since falling below the line on January 29. A daily close above the 50-Day line will provide the next confirmation of strength.
Improving Bullish Outlook
Recent price action has provided several reasons for optimism from the bulls. Natural gas has recently recaptured the 20-Day MA, exceeded the most recent swing high of 1.83, and closed above the long-term downtrend line. Further, the recent March 25 swing low is higher than the trend low from February. And natural gas is on track to close above the downtrend line for the second day today.
Watching for Close Above 50-Day Moving Average
If a daily close above the 50-Day line does occur, natural gas would next be heading towards previous swing highs. The first is at 2.01 and the second target is around 2.17. A decisive rally above the 2.01 price level will trigger a breakout of a bullish double bottom pattern that has set up since the recent higher swing low completed. When measuring the pattern, a potential target around 2.50 is identified. If reached, it would put the price of natural gas just below the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.57. If the 2.50 target is reached it wouldn’t be surprising to see prices rise to test the 200-Day line as well.
Note that a breakout above the 2.17 price target heads into a gap. Subsequent price levels to watch are then 2.31 and 2.42. However, there is an interim level within the gap at 2.235. That is a previous swing low and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Higher Swing Low Supports Continuation Higher
The definition of an uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. Since the recent swing low of 1.59 is a higher low than the trend low at 1.52, part of the trend definition has been met. It is a defined trend once the higher high is in place. That will occur on an advance above the 2.17 price level. So, an advance above 2.17 will not only trigger a breakout of a double bottom pattern, but it will also confirm a rising trend.
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Oil At $85.00. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 2, 2024
Oil is surging to another yearly high as demand expectations rise, supply falls, geopolitical risks rise and OPEC March Oil output falls by 50,000 bpd from February to 26.42 million bpd according to the latest survey. Export cuts by Mexico to the tune of 600,000 barrels a day come on a day when manufacturing data and prices paid data in the US came in much stronger than expected. Then heightened geopolitical risks rose higher after a missile attack hit an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus that killed a senior Iranian general. Iran said it was an Israeli attack that would demand an Iranian response. Iran is blaming Israel and the United States.
Iran’s Ali Khamenei is vowing to punish Israel after the deadly attacks while Iran reportedly is in backdoor conversations with the United States to try to ease tensions that could boil over into a confrontation that both Iran and the United States are trying to avoid. Iranian state media said the attack on Monday killed a senior leader in the elite Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which oversees Tehran’s network of militia allies throughout the region. The commander, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, managed Iranian paramilitary operations in Syria and Lebanon, according to Iranian state media and U.S. officials.
This came after a report that the Chinese manufacturing sector expanded stronger than anticipated. We also got a report from the ISM manufacturing here in the United States that showed that the US manufacturing sector is rebounding.
Bloomberg News reported that US factory activity unexpectedly expanded in March for the first time since September 2022 on a sharp rebound in production and stronger demand, while input costs climbed. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge rose 2.5 points to 50.3 last month, according to data released Monday. While barely above the level of 50 that separates expansion and contraction, it halted 16 straight months of shrinking activity. That report added to demand expectations for oil and products. And with the global well supply deficit already developing, the increased risk to supplies will keep the market on edge. Oil products like gasoline and diesel are starting to bounce back after being skeptical about the move but the inventories for products around the globe are below average and that should keep the market well supported on breaks. Bloomberg reported, “Mexico’s Pemex will ship less oil in a push to feed domestic refineries reducing Mexico’s exports by about 600,000 barrels a day of Maya crude oil.
There are more questions as to whether the US oil and gas industry can continue to overcome the hostile regulatory environment of the Biden administration. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is warning that the US will lose its energy advantage as the Biden administration continues to push short-sighted regulations on electric vehicles and new methane taxes that will severely curtail US oil and gas production and give our advisories a huge economic and military advantage.
In a release, the API and the Energy Workforce & Technology Council joined with 18 other associations representing all segments of the U.S. oil and gas industry operating across the country in calling on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to revise its “misguided” methane fee on American energy. In comments submitted to the agency on the “waste emissions charge” proposed rulemaking, the associations argued that EPA’s proposed rule creates an incoherent regulatory regime, fails to meet the statutory requirements outlined by the Inflation Reduction Act, and disincentivizes emissions reduction efforts by the industry. “This tax on American energy is a serious misstep that could jeopardize our nation’s energy advantage and weaken our energy security,” said API Senior Vice President of Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs Dustin Meyer. “U.S. oil and natural gas is innovating throughout its operations to reduce methane emissions while meeting growing energy demand. Yet, this proposal creates an incoherent, confusing regulatory regime that will only stifle technology advancements and hamper energy development. With partners across the industry, we will consider all options to ensure a smart regulatory framework for continued American energy development.”
One way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of course is going nuclear just don’t tell Jane Fonda. But the reality is that nuclear may play an even bigger part in the world’s quest to reduce greenhouse gas emissions than many may have imagined. Bloomberg News is reporting that, “US oil companies including Diamondback Energy are considering small nuclear reactors to power drilling operations in Texas’s Permian Basin. And for all those young people that are worried about climate change, wait till we tell them that we’re going to be using small nuclear reactors to power oil drilling. I don’t think they’ll ever leave their safe spaces again.
Natural gas seems to have everything against it but the charts look like they’re trying to turn positive. There is a strong seasonal tendency for the September natural gas to rally over the next month but it’s still facing some incredible hurdles when it comes to the supply side and the lack of winter. This late blast of winter is too little too late to have a meaningful impact but what could have an impact is continued production cuts at some point this comes as the Energy Information Administration touts the fact that the US is the biggest LNG exporter in the world which is a great thing if you want to replace coal around the world.
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Natural Gas Bullish Weekly Reversal Points to Higher Prices
By: Bruce Powers | April 1, 2024
• Bullish momentum in natural gas confirmed, with potential for breakout to higher prices as technicals show signs of strength.
Natural gas triggered a bullish reversal on Monday in both the daily and weekly time frames, as it advanced above Friday’s high and then exceeded last week’s high of 1.83. It continues to trade near the highs of the day at the time of this writing and is well positioned to close strong, in the upper quarter of the day’s range. In addition, natural gas has a chance to end Monday’s session above last week’s high, which would further confirm strength. It is on track to close above both the 20-Day MA (purple) and long-term downtrend line. Each metric shows improving strength in demand. Natural gas has not been able to close above the downtrend line since January 26.
Second Bottom is Set for Potential Double Bottom
Today’s advance confirms the completion of a minor pullback and further confirms the higher swing low bottom from four days ago at 1.59 (C). A higher swing low is a sign of strength and is bullish. It begins the second leg up of a rising ABCD pattern. The initial target from the pattern completes where there is symmetry between the two swings, at 2.01. The secondary target, where the CD leg of the advance is extended by 127.2% of the AB leg, is at 2.21.
Eyeing Recapture of Downtrend Line
Once a daily close occurs above last week’s high, and above the downtrend line, the chance for a continuation higher improves. The next key encounter will be with the 50-Day MA (orange) at 1.90, as it represents dynamic resistance for the recent part of the downtrend. Natural gas has been trading below it since January 18. A daily close above the 50-Day line will show further signs of strengthening and again improves the possibility of the developing uptrend continuing to higher prices.
Higher Swing Low is Sign of Demand Improvement
The completion of the higher swing low at point (C) increases the chance for an eventual breakout of a double bottom pattern as the setup exists. However, as with all patterns, they need a trigger to confirm a breakout. That will happen on the double bottom pattern on a rise above the most recent swing high at 2.01. Subsequently, a daily close above that high will confirm the double bottom. It will also put natural gas in a position of having a higher swing high to follow the recent higher swing low.
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Crude Oil starting to break above 2+ years of trendline resistance...
By: TrendSpider | April 1, 2024
• Crude Oil starting to break above 2+ years of trendline resistance. $CL_F
Watch how price reacts to the 2022 High VWAP around ~$85.
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No Fooling. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 1, 2024
Oil and commodities are on fire with gold hitting a new all-time high and copper soaring after China’s manufacturing data hit a six-month high. China’s purchasing managers index rose to 50.8 from 49.1 in February beating expectations and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the February personal-consumption expenditures data was “pretty much in line with expectations,” and that he didn’t see elevated inflation risks. Oil trade should stay solid as Russia plans to cut its diesel exports by sea in April to a five-month low in the daily flows of exports from Russian ports are down 21%. Bloomberg is showing the impact of the diesel flows as Ukrainian drones hit Russian refineries. Russia has responded by attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as well and we saw reports of power outages in Odessa and Kharkiv over the weekend. That, along with expectations that OPEC and Russia will follow through with their production cuts, is adding to the likelihood of an oil supply deficit as we head into the summer driving season.
Yet despite the turmoil around the globe, it seems that the Biden Administration wants to give China another big win at the expense of the US taxpayer as it drives deep into its fool-hardy obsession with electric vehicles. No fooling. China is getting a big boost of economic stimulus in part courtesy of the Biden administration as it believes they try to force electric cars down the throats of US businesses that don’t want them with no discernible help to the environment or have any impact on climate change. No fooling.
Yes, we are seeing oil prices start firm and a new record high in gold and a surge in copper prices as Chinese manufacturing hits a six-month high. So, it is head scratching time to see the Biden administration foolishly double down and its foolhardy attempt to try to electrify automobiles and the US truck fleet. A task that doesn’t make sense from a scientific standpoint but if you believe some of the economic pain it will cause and the advantage it gives to China, somehow atones for what they see as environmental injustices.
The Hill writes that, “An estimated 72 million Americans, often people of color or people with lower incomes, live near freight truck routes,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said. “These communities are disproportionately exposed to the pollution from heavy-duty vehicles, resulting in higher rates of respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses and even premature death,” he added. “Reducing emissions from our heavy-duty vehicles means cleaner air and less pollution.” The Biden administration is fooled into believing that they are saving the planet but foolishly what they are doing is costing the US jobs and adding to inflation.
For the sake of optics, they foolishly enrich China which will benefit from this foolish policy while it may add to carbon emissions. While the EPA tries to tell us that this plan will “avoid” one billion metric tons in CO2 emissions from 2027 through 2055.
The Wall Street Journal points out that emissions from China and India rose last year alone. The Wall Street Journal points out that the, “EPA says its big-rig quotas are feasible because the Inflation Reduction Act and 2021 infrastructure law include hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for EVs. This includes a 30% tax credit for charging stations, a $40,000 tax credit for commercial EVs, and a tax credit for battery manufacturing that can offset more than a third of the cost. IRA tax credits for electric trucks aren’t conditioned on the source of battery material, so expect most to come from China. China’s BYD was California’s top-selling electric truck maker in 2022. Biden officials say Chinese green-technology manufacturers are flooding the U.S. market, but their mandates and subsidies are the reason.” They foolishly don’t even consider the real cost and it’s the real impact on inflation. They are foolish enough to believe that somehow, it’s OK to destroy the middle class by increasing their costs in the name of what they call environmental justice, which is kind of like a religion, to them I guess. Of course, these are the same people who foolishly believe that calling Easter, the most holy day in the Christian calendar, Transgender Day of Visibility would not be deeply offensive to Christians all over the world. This administration seems to offend anybody who gets in the way of their agenda and gets offended by the truth.
The Biden administration had harsh words for the US oil and gas industry as well as mom-and-pop gas station owners whom they accused of being price gougers and war profiteers. This is an administration that then turned a blind eye to Iranian oil sanctions and allowed Iran to make billions of dollars while they spread their errors throughout the world by supporting terror groups like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels. The Biden administration also is now not going to enforce sanctions on Venezuela mainly because they’re concerned about rising gasoline prices and imperiling Biden’s reelection chances.
We saw an uptick in gasoline demand as spring break and Easter travel gave us a bounce. AAA says that, “Gas prices are at 3.536 a gallon slightly more than yesterday and more than a week ago an about 14 cents a gallon more than a week ago. Prices are in overbought territory but we don’t see a big correction coming anytime soon. More than likely there will be a little bit of consolidation as we start to move higher. Inventory this week is expected to be relatively flat but we could see a drop in products like gasoline and diesel. OPEC and Russia are showing unity.
Natural gas prices continue to struggle even as Chesapeake Energy plans to put 80 new natural gas wells into suspended animation by the end of this year other firms like QG are shutting in wells we’ll see if it gives the market a bit of support.
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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 30, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2024.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 322.5k, down 14.6k.
Bulls were in no mood to let last week’s potentially bearish weekly gravestone doji dictate things. The candle was not confirmed this week, as West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 3.2 percent to produce a weekly bullish marubozu, ending at $83.17/barrel, with the intra-week high of $83.21 just ahead of last week’s high of $83.12.
In the meantime, this is also the first time since last November that the crude decisively closed above the upper end of an 18-month range between $71-$72 and $81-$82.
WTI has come a long way since bottoming at $67.71 last December. Conditions are overbought, but, as things stand, oil bulls are back into the saddle.
In the meantime, as per the EIA, US crude production in the week to March 22nd was unchanged week-over-week at 13.1 million barrels per day; a month ago, output was at a record 13.3 mb/d. Crude imports increased 424,000 b/d to 6.7 mb/d. As did stocks of crude and gasoline, which respectively grew 3.2 million barrels and 1.3 million barrels to 448.2 million barrels and 232.1 million barrels. Distillate inventory, however, decreased 1.2 million barrels to 117.3 million barrels. Refinery utilization increased nine-tenths of a percentage point to 88.7 percent.
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Natural Gas Eyes Bullish Reversal from Retracement Low
By: Bruce Powers | March 28, 2024
• Natural gas bounced from 1.69 low, eyes bullish reversal above 1.76 with potential to eventually breakout of double bottom pattern.
Natural gas falls to a new retracement low of 1.69 before finding support and bouncing intraday. It is possible that today completes a two-day retracement as a 61.8% Fibonacci level was just below today’s low at 1.68. Today’s high of 1.76 found resistance at the 20-Day MA (purple). Today’s candle sets up for a bullish reversal signal on a decisive rally above today’s high. Natural gas would then be heading for the recent swing high of 1.83 with the potential to breakout above that price level.
Rally Above 1.83 Confirms Strength
A rally above 1.83 would trigger a continuation of the rally begun from the recent swing low at 1.59 (C). That low is a second bottom that sets up a potential double bottom bullish reversal pattern. It triggers on a move above the March 5 swing high at 2.01. Until then it is a potential double bottom. The target derived from the pattern is approximately 2.50. If reached, it would put natural gas a little below the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.57.
Eyes Breakout Above Long-term Downtrend Line
If natural gas can close above the 1.83 swing high it will have broken back above the long-term downtrend line, which has represented dynamic resistance since the end of January. That would provide a clear sign that the price of natural gas is continuing to strengthen and that the current rally has the potential to reach higher targets. Subsequently, we will need to see further confirmation of strength to indicate that it can keep rising. The 50-Day MA is a target and it currently sits at 1.91. A daily close above it will indicate improving demand and improve that chance that natural gas keeps rising.
Rise Above 2.01 Needed for Sustainable Signs of Strength
Resistance was seen on the last advance at 2.01 (B). That is right around previous support seen at the prior trend lows in 2023. A daily close above that level would provide a sign that demand is continuing to strengthen on the way up. It triggers a breakout of the double bottom and confirms a continuation of the counter-trend rally. The next higher target would then be the February 1 swing high of 2.17.
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Biden Panic Buying. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 28, 2024
What does it say that the Biden administration is starting to buy oil back for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) above their stated $70.00 to $67.00 a barrel buying price, purchasing oil at $81.32 a barrel? Is it possible that the Biden administration is fearful that we’re going to get another spike in price? Or are they trying to fill it up in anticipation of something more ominous? Are they worried about the report from energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie that warns that more than one firth, or 21%, of global refining capacity is at risk of closure due in part because of what Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said this week was a failed and flawed energy transition? Are they starting to worry that major reporting agencies like the International Energy Agency are starting to predict an oil deficit something The Energy Report of course has been warning about for over a year? Perhaps they are starting to worry about more predictions like that of Morgan Stanley about calls for a return to $100.00 a barrel of oil. Are they worried that heading into an election year, we’re seeing gasoline prices start to rise and the defense of their green energy policy is not going to play well on Main Street America?
Perhaps they are concerned that their political motivated use of our strategic reserves has left the country more vulnerable as the Biden foreign policy has failed to reduce risk to global energy supply and global supply chains. Biden’s presidency has seen the risk to global energy supply higher than it has been in at least a half of century. The easing up on Iran has allowed Iranian oil production to hit the highest level since 2018 and has put billions of dollars in their coffers so they can fund their friends in Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthi rebels. Perhaps there is worry that the country is not going to be able to respond to a major oil price disruption.
Of course it doesn’t help that the Biden administration has demonized the US oil and gas industry and created more regulations with heavy-handed tactics that are not based in real science and is discouraging investment in the US oil and gas space which is leading some people to predict that US energy production will peak and start to fall. It doesn’t help that the Biden administration killed the Keystone XL pipeline for purely political purposes. Government studies show that the Keystone Pipeline would not have added to greenhouse gas emissions so the decision to kill the Keystone XL pipeline was purely political. Now with the global supply of oil being exceedingly tight, especially that of heavy oil, the Keystone Pipeline could have moved oil much more efficiently and safely than it’s being moved today.
Regardless of the oil and oil products, the fundamental outlook must be putting major pressure on this administration that is trying to convince you that they have reduced inflation even as everyone knows that the opposite is true. Perhaps they are upping the purchases or the SPR regardless of price because of previous comments by Energy Secretary Granholm’s impossible promise to refill the reserve by the end of the year. She was quoted as saying, “By the end of this year, because of crude purchases, the reserve is expected to “be back to essentially where we would have been had we not sold during the invasion of Ukraine,” after accounting for the cancellation of 140 mn bl of congressional mandated crude sales that were scheduled through 2031. Or maybe it’s just a realization that they’re starting to panic because they used the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a measure to lower gasoline prices before the war in Ukraine started and now the world is at risk of a major supply shortage and they might not have enough well in the bank to cover in the event of a global disruption.
The Biden administration misused the SPR by changing the definition of the reserve as a reserve to be used in the event of an emergency not in the event of a political crisis. It was never meant to be used as a price control mechanism.
What does it mean when a People’s Bank of China adviser admits that the Chinese past regulatory tightening has hurt the confidence of investment in China? No, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has the nerve to call out China saying that they should never flood the world with cheap energy exports saying it would disrupt global markets and harm workers. Of course, that’s pretty funny because she supported Biden’s release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Is she trying to say that Biden’s release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve didn’t distort global markets and harm workers? Is she saying that the killing of the Keystone Pipeline didn’t harm workers? Is she saying that the drilling moratorium and regulatory environment didn’t hurt workers in the US oil and gas industry?
Well, the reality is that we’re starting to see oil prices start to react to the global situation. Crude oil prices are surging back to the high after they put into perspective yesterday’s Energy Information Administration report that wasn’t nearly as bearish as the American Petroleum Institute report. Gasoline supplies on the West Coast seem to be tightening significantly which means California is going to see another price spike in gasoline and leave the nation with higher prices.
The EIA said that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 448.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels from last week and are about 1% below the five-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 5.3 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.1 million barrels a day, up by 2.2% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels a day, up by 0.9% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 2.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 0.4% compared with the same four-week period last year.
Berkeley, CA had to reverse its ban on natural gas. Hopefully the rest of the country will do the same, especially in New York where the natural gas ban and new building is going a have devastating effects on the New York economy. Of course the New York economy it’s a mess anyway. Natural gas traders are hoping for a resumption of the Freeport LNG terminal quickly so LNG exports can start to surge. Natural gas production is showing some signs of easing off.
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Natural Gas Symmetry Pattern Points to Higher Targets
By: Bruce Powers | March 27, 2024
• Natural gas is testing support at the 8-Day MA and 1.70 level, with a bullish reversal indicated on the weekly chart.
Natural gas pulls back below Tuesday’s low to test support at the 8-Day MA. Support and the low of the day for Wednesday was at 1.70, at the time of this writing, and the 8-Day line is at 1.70. As of Monday’s 1.59, swing low (C), natural gas began the second leg up of a rising ABCD pattern. It remains valid unless there is a drop below 1.59.
Higher Swing Low Points to Improving Demand
Since there is now a higher swing low at 1.59, natural gas is showing improving underlying demand. It is still early but that is the situation currently. Therefore, the expectation is for the initial target from the ABCD pattern to be reached. It completes at 2.08, which is where there is price symmetry between the CD leg and the AB leg of the pattern. That target is then watched as any pivot level may be. Either resistance is seen or a breakout through the target zone follows and natural gas heads towards higher price levels.
Resistance Seen at Long-term Downtrend Line
Nevertheless, the next potential barrier that needs to be busted for further signs of strength is yesterday’s high of 1.83. Notice that resistance was seen right at the long-term downtrend line. That line was successfully tested as resistance twice previously (red circles). Therefore, it represents the next important barrier to be broken if the bulls are going to take back control. If it is exceeded to the upside, the next target zone would be around the 50-Day MA.
50-Day Line at 1.94 Also Upside Target
The 50-Day line is currently at 1.94 and is confirmed by the important prior trend low from April 2023. It was critical support at the same price in 2023 and now it is potentially significant resistance. That also means that a bust-up through that price level should see demand increase as it will mark a key improvement in the developing uptrend. Although, keep in mind that it is a counter-trend rally within a larger downtrend price structure.
Weekly Bullish Reversal Signaled
Currently, natural gas is showing a bullish reversal on the weekly chart, which is an outside week. A weekly close above last week’s high of 1.77 will provide a stronger sign of strength than a close below that level.
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API Surprise. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 27, 2024
As the market prepares for the upcoming Easter holiday and with the oil market closed on Good Friday, a shocking build in crude supply might be a bit hard to shake off. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a massive 9.337-million-barrel increase in crude supply along with a much larger-than-expected 2.392-million-barrel increase in crude oil supply. The surge in crude supplies would be welcome news for refiners but it does have people questioning how we could have seen such a large increase in just one week. We do know that refinery maintenance issues helped increase supplies at Cushing, OK. We know that ongoing refinery maintenance issues could be partly to blame. Regardless, the increase in size was stunning just to say the least.
Oil exports and oil production are going to be monitored very closely if it weren’t for the fact that we saw a very large 4.437 million barrel drop in gasoline inventories, the market might have fallen apart on light volume that gets lighter as we get closer to the end of this shortened trading week. Distillates barely moved the needle, increasing by just 531,000 barrels. Today the market is going to analyze the Energy Information Administration report to see if this build is an aberration or if there’s something in the data that suggests a significant drop in demand.
We do know that consumer confidence, according to yesterday’s data, took a big hit. The consumer confidence board reported that the consumer confidence index fell to 104.7 this month from a revised 104.8 (originally106.7) in February and below market expectations. Consumers feeling the heat from inflation not only in rising gasoline prices but also at the grocery store are raising concerns that they may pull back when it comes to driving vacations and discretionary spending. Gasoline demand is going to be watched very carefully because if it drops, it means to consumers have hit a point where they need to pull back.
Even Russia’s commitment to cut production to 9 million barrels a day by June didn’t seem to have a lasting impact on prices. Still, the reduction in Russian oil production combined with reduced refining capacity should continue to keep the squeeze on supplies in Europe and globally. This comes as increased sanctions on Russia lead to payment delays. Reuters is reporting that, “Russian oil firms face delays of up to several months to be paid for crude and fuel as banks in China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) become more wary of U.S. secondary sanctions, eight sources familiar with the matter said. Payment delays reduce revenue to the Kremlin and make them erratic, allowing Washington to achieve its dual policy sanction goals – to disrupt money going to the Kremlin to punish it for the war in Ukraine while not interrupting global energy flows.”
Going into the Easter holiday we are seeing gasoline prices that are higher than they were yesterday, higher than they were a week ago, higher than they were a year ago. Today gasoline prices are clocking in at $3.53 .5 per gallon. That is up two cents from a week ago, 22 1/2 cents from a month ago and about a dime higher than they were a year ago. The trend of falling gasoline supplies needs to be reversed. It’s going to be interesting to see if there are any signs that that will happen in the Energy Information Administration report.
The market is trying to assess its supply chain issues when it comes to the tragic Francis Scott Key bridge collapse in the port of Baltimore. Close Point LNG said that their operations are going to continue as normal as their facilities were south of the bridge collapse therefore their exports will not be impacted. Car manufacturers, mainly Mazda, is going to have significant supply chain issues until the port is reopened. The port of Baltimore is the major import and export point for many automakers especially some of the higher end brands. It is a major hub for Domino sugar and some of their products also could be harder to find.
Fox News is reporting that safety investigators will probe whether dirty fuel contributed to Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse. They write that, “A safety investigation into the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in Baltimore, Maryland, will include whether contaminated fuel was a factor in a cargo ship losing power and crashing into the bridge. Investigators had not boarded the ship, a 948-foot-long container ship called the Dali, as of late Tuesday while it remained stuck on a pillar of the collapsed bridge, and the vessel could stay there for weeks. Rescue crews spent much of Tuesday searching for potential survivors, but officials announced that the search and rescue had been turned into a recovery operation.
Fox News said that, “blackouts at sea are uncommon, but they do happen and have long been viewed as a major accident risk for ships on the water. One cause of ship blackouts is contaminated fuel that can create problems with its main power generators, said Fotis Pagoulatos, a naval architect. He said a complete blackout could result in a ship losing propulsion and that smaller generators can kick in, but they are unable to carry all the functions of the main ones and take time to start.
The Wall Street Journal reports that “The owner of the Domino Sugar refinery at Baltimore’s port says the plant has six to eight weeks of raw sugar stockpiled at the facility and that it expects no short-term disruptions to its operations from the bridge collapse blocking the mouth of the harbor. The refinery, which boasts the last working smokestack on Baltimore’s increasingly residential waterfront, began operations in 1922. A spokeswoman for Domino owner ASR Group said a ship is currently unloading raw sugar at the refinery’s dock and another ship finished unloading on Monday.”
Natural gas continues to be one of the cheapest hydrocarbons on the planet. It’s good news for the industry that the Cove Point LNG export terminal is still operational because they really can’t afford to see anymore export terminals shutdown. The truth is that natural gas continues to be a bridge fuel for any energy transition and maybe that reality is starting to dawn on people. Even people in places like Berkeley CA..
The AP reports that, “The city of Berkeley, California, has agreed to halt enforcement of a ban on natural gas piping in new homes and buildings that was successfully opposed in court by the California Restaurant Association, the organization said. The settlement follows the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals’ refusal to reconsider a 2023 ruling that the ban violates federal law that gives the U.S. government the authority to set energy-efficiency standards for appliances, the association said in a statement last week. “While the Ninth Circuit’s ruling renders this particular ordinance unenforceable, Berkeley will continue to be a leader in climate action,” Berkeley City Attorney Farimah Faiz Brown said in an email to The Associated Press.
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Natural Gas Bullish Weekly Reversal Signals Strong Potential for Higher Targets
By: Bruce Powers | March 26, 2024
• Natural gas shows bullish signs with a reversal above key levels, indicating potential for higher targets, first around 1.95 to 2.01.
A bullish reversal triggered today in natural gas as it got back above the 20-Day MA line (purple) and above the most recent interim swing high of 1.77. Further, a weekly bullish reversal was also triggered as last week’s high of 1.77 was exceeded to the upside. If natural gas can stay above the 20-Day line, currently at 1.77, it has a chance to test higher target levels.
Next Target Zone is 1.95 to 2.01
The next higher target zone looks to be around 1.95 to 2.01. That price zone includes the prior bottom of the downtrend at 1.95, please the 50-Day MA (orange), and the bottom of the descending trend channel (blue dash). In addition, the top of the range is from the most recent swing high on March 5. That high is now the neckline of a potential double bottom bullish reversal pattern. If Monday’s low of 1.59 continues to be the low of the most recent retracement, natural gas should continue to advance from that low.
Rising ABCD Pattern Symmetry at 2.08
A rising ABCD pattern hits its first target at 2.08 and identifies that price level as a key pivot. Either resistance is seen there, as it marks the point of symmetry between the two legs of the pattern, or buyers remain in control and there is a breakout through that price zone. If a breakout occurs, the next higher price zone is 2.17, the bottom boundary of a prior gap.
Of course, an advance above 2.17 puts the price of natural gas into the gap and increases the chance it might eventually fill. The second target from the ABCD pattern is at 2.21. It is derived by applying the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio to the AB leg of the pattern and then that new price distance is applied to the C point to identify a D target.
Potential Double Bottom
As noted above, a potential double bottom has now formed on the chart. A decisive rally above the mid-point at 2.01 triggers a pattern breakout. By taking the height of the pattern in price and adding it to the neckline, a target of 2.50 is calculated from the double bottom.
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Roasted Chickens. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 26, 2024
You all know that old saying that ‘the chickens come home to roost’ is sadly taking part in the global oil market and the scariest thing is there is not a lot of bearish news anywhere you look. Just a lot of chickens or roosters – whatever. The seasonal gas price rise along with declining global inventory and reduced refining capacity has AAA calling for gas prices to hit $4.00 a gallon this summer, the highest level since 2022.
This comes as Russia showed its commitment to OPEC production cuts as Vladimir Putin laid down the gauntlet to the Russian oil producers decreeing that they have to reduce oil output to 9 million barrels a day by the end of June. Knowing Putin, they better comply if they know what’s good for them. OPEC also announced that they would continue with their production levels and will confirm that at their April 3rd meeting.
This comes with reports about falling US oil output and conflicting predictions on whether the heavy-handed regulatory environment is going to cause a drop in future US oil production. Regardless, the Biden Team must be starting to worry as they are running out of options to cool off red-hot pump prices. Instead of dealing with reality, they doubled down on their job-killing and environmental electric car push based on political ideology and not on science.
So, Biden’s plan to refill the strategic reserve at $67.00 a barrel to $70.00 a barrel is starting to unwind and for strictly political purposes Biden may have to tap the reserve again to try to save his presidency. Under Biden, Iranian oil production has hit record highs and he’s turning a blind eye to Venezuelan oil sanctions that he lifted in return for what was supposed to be a free and fair election that never happened. Still this morning Bloomberg reports that India may cut purchases of Venezuelan oil ahead of the Biden waiver that expires on April 18th and is probably good news for Russia.
While the US energy industry has squeezed more blood out of every oil rig, there are more questions about whether the techniques that the producers have used in the shale patch are going to start giving us diminishing returns. Goldman Sachs came out with a report suggesting that U.S. oil production had declined by 400,000 barrels a day since December to 12.6 million barrels a day. This number doesn’t agree with the headline number from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) which they have already started to revise downward.
Yet Macquarie Group Ltd. is once again betting on the ingenuity of the US oil and gas industry to overcome obstacles. Macquarie is predicting that US energy production will hit 14.5 million barrels a day as falling costs and improved drilling efficiency overshadow subdued growth plans from publicly listed companies. That’s higher than EIA’s call for 13.2 million barrels a day. Macquarie stood out among analysts last year with its projection of increased US shale production and ultimately was proved correct. Its latest forecast comes as shale oil explorers are vowing to rein in production growth for a fourth straight year and consolidation in the industry presents headwinds to further growth. The US government expects production to edge up to 13.2 million barrels a day this year.
The devastating and heartbreaking news of the cargo ship hitting the Francis Scott key bridge in the port of Baltimore could have ramifications for a lot of commodities today. The Port of Baltimore is the second-largest port in the United States for coal exports, shipping about one-fifth of the country’s coal exports. In 2023, the port’s top export destinations were Australia, India, Belgium, Japan, and the Netherlands. Our prayers are for all of those involved in this horrific event.
What’s so much bullish news the market may need to take a breath. Inventories today in the Energy Information Administration aren’t expected to be overly bullish. We are looking for slight draws across the board. Some people think that the report has to make up for under-reporting drawdowns last week. We shall see but guesses are all over the board. The thing to remember is that even if we get builds in supply, we’re still below and behind the 8 ball heading into the summer driving season.
The attacks on Russian refineries caused the diesel crack to outperform gasoline but it’s going to be a cat and mouse game as refiners have to decide what type of product they’re going to need to meet demand. In the meantime, the possibility of a gasoline price spike continuing is very very high and while AAA is looking for $4.00 this summer, it could go higher if we see any supply disruptions around the globe. Hedge funds are starting to embrace the long side of the market after fighting this market every step of the way. We’re afraid that the prices are going to have some making up to do as it seemed to ignore bullish fundamentals in the past and now we will have to pay the price in the future for that lack of vision.
Yet now according to John Kemp, the oil market has seen a frenzy of hedge fund buying. He wrote that, “LONDON, March 25 (Reuters) – Investors have purchased oil at the fastest rate for more than four years, amid optimism that Saudi Arabia and its OPEC? allies will continue to restrict production while an improving economic outlook boosts consumption.
Ukraine’s drone attacks on oil refineries and export terminals in Russia, which threaten to disrupt production and exports of both crude and fuels, have turbocharged the shift in sentiment to more bullishness. Over the seven days ending on March 19, hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 140 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts linked to petroleum prices.
The buying was the fastest since December 2019, and among the ten fastest weeks since records began in 2013, according to position reports filed with exchanges and regulators.
Another bad day for natural gas prices and US producers. The Freeport LNG export terminal being down for extended maintenance and other maintenance issues is going to increase the glut of natural gas. We still want to short on the front end. We expect to see more production cutbacks in the natural gas space. Do you think that there’s any chance that the Biden administration will provide a bailout for the US natural gas industry. I doubt it.
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Natural Gas Continues to Build a Base
By: Christopher Lewis | March 25, 2024
• The natural gas markets fell slightly during the early hours on Monday, but then turned around to bounce back. This suggests that we are still building a massive base pattern.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis
Natural gas initially fell during the trading session on Monday, but it does look like we are trying to turn around and bounce a bit. Ultimately, the $1.50 level underneath, I think, continues to be a major floor in the market that you need to pay attention to. And of course, we have the 20 day EMA above offering a little bit of resistance that people will be watching as well. Ultimately, I think this is a scenario that eventually we do rally, probably to the $2 level initially. There is a major floor at $1.50 going back multiple years, and an area that has a lot of drillers thinking about bankruptcy and walking away from the fields. This could bring down supply, eventually. However, it could take time for that to show up in the price charts.
So, I do think that if you are looking for an investment, this might be a decent market to be involved in. But I would put an accent on the word investment due to the fact that it is not going to move quickly, and you may see quite a bit of volatility. The last thing you want to do is have a massive amount of leverage in this position as it can jump back and forth. In general, I think this is a situation where if you can find low leverage or an ETF like I trade, then it’s a nice investment for probably the rest of the year. You will have the occasional shakeout, but if we can break above the $2 level, then we could start to pick up momentum to $2.50.
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Oil Continues to Find Support Just Below
By: Christopher Lewis | March 25, 2024
• The oil markets have recently been bullish, but the last couple of sessions have been more about finding stabilization after a massive breakout.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis
The West Texas Intermediate market bounced ever so slightly during the early hours on Monday as the $80 level continues to be of importance. Furthermore, we need to pay close attention to the moving averages underneath, forming the so-called golden cross as the 50-day EMA gets ready to break above the 200-day EMA. In general, this is a market that I do like, and I think cyclically speaking, it’s a good trade to have on. After all, demand does pick up this time of year, and of course, we have a lot of geopolitical concerns. Breaking above that $80 level was crucial for attitude as well. So, I think we’ve got a shot of this market truly taking off to the upside. I like buying pullbacks, and I think $85 is your next target.
Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Brent markets look very similar, with $84.50 being the support underneath. If we can break out to the upside, the $90 level will be the target, and I think we could get there over the course of the next couple of months. I don’t necessarily think that the market is going to shoot straight up in the air, but I do recognize that we have a scenario where the market is very bullish overall, and now we are doing that pullback to a breakout kind of thing that a lot of markets will do.
I look for short-term drops to pick up, and I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this market. All things considered, I believe this is a market that should continue to go higher over the next several months, and I plan on being involved to the upside in both grades of oil.
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Bases Loaded. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 25, 2024
Oil prices are building a base over $80 a barrel as global supplies tighten, the US rig count falls and geopolitical risk rises. The energy gloves are off as Russia retaliates from Ukraine’s attacks on their oil refineries by attacking Ukraine with hypersonic missiles on their energy infrastructure. Reports say as much as 25% of Russia’s refining capacity could be shut down at a time when global supplies of diesel and gasoline are below average for this time of year.
This comes after the horrific Friday terror attack on a concert hall near Moscow that Russia blames on Ukraine, but it appears it was an attack by a rejuvenated ISIS. Russia lashed out with aggressive attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Russia attacked critical infrastructure in Ukraine’s western region of Lviv with missiles early on Sunday, Kyiv said, in a major air strike that saw one Russian cruise missile briefly fly into Polish airspace, according to Warsaw as reported by Reuters.
Reports say as much as 25% of Russia’s refining capacity could be shut down at a time when the global supplies of diesel and gasoline are below average for this time of year. Reuters reported that Russian oil refining capacity that was shut down in the first quarter due to Ukrainian drone attacks on at least seven refineries amounts to about 4.6 million tons (370,500 barrels per day), or some 7% of the total, Reuters calculations show, on top of maintenance related to other causes. The United States has urged Ukraine to halt drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, warning they risk provoking retaliation and driving up global oil prices, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. Russia’s oil refining production forecast for 2024 remains unchanged and close to last year’s level of around 5.5 million barrels per day, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said on Wednesday.
While things heat up between Russia and Ukraine, the Red Sea attack risks are still high even as Israel reportedly gave a proposal to Hamas for a ceasefire that could allow for the release of 40 hostages held by Hamas. This comes as Israel attacks the hospital hideout of the Hamas terrorists who used hospitals as a shield.
Oil Price reported that the total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell by 5 this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, bringing the total rigs gained this year to just 2. The total rig count fell by 5 to 624 this week, compared to 758 rigs this same time last year. The number of oil rigs fell by 1 this week after seeing a gain of 6 in the week prior. Oil rigs now stand at 509–down by 84 compared to this time last year. The number of gas rigs also fell this week, by 4 to 112, a loss of 50 active gas rigs from this time last year. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 3.
Natural gas prices are trying to find a bottom and there is some criticism of natural gas producers that they didn’t react fast enough to the warm temperatures and the lack of demand thereby creating a glut. But maybe it’s possible that natural gas producers are going to get smarter in the future with the use of artificial intelligence. Last week reports said that EQT the country’s largest natural gas producer announced a deal to buy pipeline equations and streams according to Barrons. They wrote that artificial intelligence is the hottest theme in investing right now, and its growth could boost even the prospects of the latest major energy deal. EQT, the country’s largest natural gas producer, announced a deal on Monday to buy pipeline company Equitrans Midstream. The $35 billion merger will create a behemoth that controls nearly every step from getting natural gas out of the ground to delivering it to customers. Shares of EQT were down 8% on Monday, partly because it will be taking on billions of dollars in Equitrans’ debt. Equitrans shares were up 2.7%. EQT says it can pay down the debt quickly. Executives also highlighted the growth possibilities from the deal. EQT CEO Toby Rice said on a conference call after the acquisition was announced that the growth in demand from data centers used to run AI applications could boost the fortunes of the most important pipeline that EQT is buying.
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$CRB #Commodities - Update. Striving to push on up from that Bull 'Pennant'...
By: Sahara | March 25, 2024
• $CRB #Commodities - Update.
Striving to push on up from that Bull 'Pennant'...
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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 23, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 19, 2024.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 337.1k, up 54.6k.
West Texas Intermediate crude formed a potentially bearish candle at crucial resistance. A weekly gravestone doji showed up this week. Tuesday, the crude tagged $83.12, which, if stuck, would have easily cleared resistance at $81-$82. For a year and a half now, WTI has played ping pong between $71-$72 and $81-$82. By Friday, the range would stay, as the crude gave back the intra-week gains to only edge up 0.1 percent to $80.63/barrel.
The path of least resistance for now is lower crude prices.
In the meantime, as per the EIA, US crude production in the week to March 15th was unchanged week-over-week at 13.1 million barrels per day; until three weeks ago, output was at a record 13.3 mb/d. Crude imports increased 787,000 b/d to 6.3 mb/d. As did stocks of distillates, which grew 624,000 barrels to 118.5 million barrels. Inventory of crude and gasoline, however, decreased two million barrels and 3.3 million barrels respectively to 445 million barrels and 230.8 million barrels. Refinery utilization increased one percentage point to 87.8 percent.
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Signs of Weakness Emerge on Natural Gas
By: Bruce Powers | March 22, 2024
• Natural gas prices show weakness, consolidating within a range. Resistance at 8-Day MA suggests a market shift. Key support at 1.64 holds for now, but a failure could trigger a downtrend.
Natural gas remains in a consolidation range that is starting to show further signs of weakness. Up until Wednesday natural gas was consistently running into resistance around the 20-Day MA. Then, on Thursday resistance was seen near the shorter 8-Day MA, which is more sensitive to price movements. This relationship reflects a weakening market.
Declining ABCD Pattern Points to 1.64
Nonetheless, the price of natural gas remains above the key near-term support level at 1.64. That price level is a swing low that is potentially part of the developing uptrend price structure of higher swing lows. If it fails to hold then natural gas would be moving into a declining ABCD pattern in the short-term (see chart). An early downside target of 1.55 is identified as it completes 61.8% of the price decline seen in the first AB leg down. Similarly, using the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio arrives at 1.49, which happens to match a second Fibonacci extension price. A 127.2% extension of the full advance up from the prior trend low hit in April 2023, is also 1.49. Both a short and long-term Fibonacci measurement points to the same price target.
Fibonacci Says 1.49
We could see an undercut and run strategy set up if the 1.49 level is reached. It is under the most recent trend low of 1.52 and above the historical low of 1.44. It would be a perfect spot to see a bullish reversal once stops get hit from the decline below 1.52. Two Fibonacci levels lining perfectly like that is the market telling us to pay attention. An undercut and run strategy first looks for a continuation of the dominant near-term trend, which takes out weak holders and triggers stops. If price quickly reverses (relative) and closes above the prior trend low, it gives a strong bullish signal. Keep in mind that this is an aggressive strategy.
Weekly Price Levels
In the near-term, if the 1.64 level is broken and the price of natural gas continues to decline. Note that such a drop would also trigger a bearish continuation on the weekly chart. The four-week low of 1.59 would then provide the next lower target in the weekly time frame.
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Natural Gas Continues to Build a Base
By: Christopher Lewis | March 22, 2024
• The natural gas markets will continue to bounce around going forward, as the markets are trying to do everything, they can to find some kind of bottom.
Natural Gas Weekly Technical Analysis
We continue to meander around the bottom in this market. I believe that natural gas is in the midst of a base building pattern, but this could take the better part of three months, maybe even longer than that. The main reason being is the market is extraordinarily cyclical, and this is typically the weakest time of year, we might get the occasional last ditch winter storm in the United States, or maybe we get a heat wave in the middle of summer that could drive up natural gas demand, but as things stand right now, we have plenty of supply out there. And quite frankly, we’re at the point where drillers are starting to discuss walking away from the field.
That could cause a bit of upward pressure later this year, but there is so much natural gas and storage that the only way to play this from the long side, and I am doing just that, is through an ETF and just ignore it for a while. It’s just something that is going to be able to be bought into and then cashed out later this year, possibly even as late as November. So, keep that in mind.
Short-term trading is almost non-existent. Long-term trading is going to have to be investing because eventually things will turn around. As drillers step away, they will plunge supply, but we’re nowhere near that right now. There are still a lot of companies out there doing everything they can to hang on. I think a good move later this year might be to the $3 level.
We’ll see, I’m not expecting anything above that, but again, I am invested through ETFs, so the day-to-day fluctuations really don’t affect me, and that’s the only way you can stay in this market, unless you have a tiny CFD position, but make sure you pay attention to any rollover charges at the end of each session.
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Crude Oil Continues to See Upward Pressures
By: Christopher Lewis | March 22, 2024
• The crude oil markets continue to see a lot of bullish pressure, and as a result we are likely to see a lot of buying on dips, just as we have on Friday.
WTI Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis
The WTI crude oil market initially surged during the course of the week but gave back quite a bit of the gains after the breakout. Ultimately, it is worth noting that the Friday candlestick looks like it’s going to be somewhat supportive, so I don’t know that this exhaustion candlestick shows anything other than a potential short-term pullback, and I do believe the traders will be paying close attention to it.
The $80 level, of course, has a certain amount of psychology attached to it, and it does make sense that we’ve seen buyers jump in on short-term charts, just as we saw buyers chase the market above the $80 level last week. I think at this point in time, the target is going to be $85, but oil is going to be very volatile.
And that does make a certain amount of sense. After all, there are a lot of geopolitical concerns out there, and I think you’ve got a situation where you have to look at this through the prism of perhaps trying to find value. When you look at the weekly chart, you can see that we have formed a massive double bottom, and now that we are heading into a cyclically strong time of year, I don’t see any reason why this doesn’t mean something bigger.
Brent Crude Oil Weekly Technical Analysis
Brent looks very much the same, initially rallying during the week and then pulling back towards that $84.50 level that I’ve been talking about for a while. Nonetheless, it looks like Friday is a recovery day, so I think Brent has a real shot at going to the $90 level given enough time.
Short-term pull backs continue to be buying opportunities, the 50-week EMA underneath could be support, and Brent has all of the same fundamental drivers that WTI Crude Oil does and on top of that, there’s even more geopolitical concern when it comes to Brent. Ultimately, I do think that we are heading into a very bullish time of year, and we are about to see that play out in the crude oil markets.
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False Peaks. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 22, 2024
Whether it’s peak oil production or peak oil demand, it appears the peak theories have once again come crashing back to the market-based realities. Twenty years ago or so, I used to give presentations explaining to a skeptical crowd that the world was not going to run out of oil in the near term or even the long term. The simple explanation was that high prices would cure high prices and when they got high enough, they would find plenty of oil. This so-called finite resource would eventually be found on land and sea in places yet undiscovered. Besides 71% of the earth’s surface is covered by water so there is still plenty of oil discoveries to be made when the price is just right. That’s on top of the 1.56 trillion barrels of proved crude oil reserves, excluding oil sands that we already know about.
Of course, in the last couple of years, the so-called peak freaks have reversed course in predicting that global demand has already peaked and that we would see demand for crude oil start to fall as the world moved to more unreliable forms of alternative energy and started to drive electric cars that would be powered by alternative clean energy source or perhaps fairy dust. Yet despite spending untold trillions of dollars to force us out of our internal combustion engines and try to force investment out of fossil fuels, oil demand will hit an all-time high next month.
Yesterday it was the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that had to increase its price projections for crude oil and petroleum products for the remainder of 2024. They also had to lower their forecast for world oil production in the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24) to 101.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in March. While the EIA blames the extension of the OPEC production cuts for the reason for the change, the reality is that it was clear to most market watchers that OPEC would stay the course and extend cuts even when their last report was released. The EIA also predicts a global supply versus demand deficit, which the Energy Report has been predicting all along. The EIA says that, “the draw on global oil stocks during 2024 will keep Brent crude oil prices elevated, averaging $88/b in 2Q24, $4/b higher than we had forecast in the February STEO. Prices will remain relatively flat for the rest of the year before falling to $82/b by the end of 2025 as OPEC+ supply cuts expire and production increases.”
Yet OPEC cuts or no OPEC cuts, what this report tells you is that the only spare oil production capacity of note in the world is in the OPEC cartel. What that means is that traders buffer against supply shocks in a world where global demand is going to be at record highs has to be at one of the lowest levels in history. That increases the possibility of sudden and violent price spikes if we see a major outage or disruption.
The EIA acknowledges the geopolitical risk factors as a wild card that could spike prices. They point out that, “No crude oil or product tankers have been lost because of the ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, but many ships are rerouting to avoid the area. Rerouting lengthens the trip and increases costs. Attacks continue to threaten ships that transit the Red Sea, which could increase prices further.
They also warn that, “Stronger demand growth than our forecast would reduce global stocks and raise oil prices, just as less demand growth would increase global stocks and reduce prices.” Now if you look at the fact that both the EIA and the International Energy Agency have underestimated demand, this becomes a real market risk. That is especially true after the Fed seemed intent on its path to cutting interest rates.
The EIA also had to raise their gasoline price forecast as well by $0.20 a gallon for June, July and August from their last estimate as they forecast driving activity—measured by vehicle miles traveled (VMT)—will increase to all-time highs in the United States during 2024 and 2025.”
Yet at the same time, they seem to pin their hopes that Biden’s electric car push will keep gas prices under control. They say that, “Despite our forecast of more driving, increased fleetwide vehicle fuel efficiency will keep motor gasoline consumption relatively flat through 2025.” Good luck with that.
So now if you look at West TX intermediate oil, a few weeks ago it was a battle to get above $80 and now it’s a battle to stay above $80. Technically the market looks ripe for a correction. It also looks like it’s consolidating, potentially setting the stage for another major upside price move. It is possible that this is going to be a staging area for a move up towards $85 and eventually testing $90.00 a barrel. Some technical analysts are pointing to the golden cross formation. Blomberg reported that the WTI crude oil approaching a Golden Cross formation with a cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving average. The last Golden Cross signal saw oil soar to its highest prices since August/September 2022.
It’s getting harder to hide the looming global oil supply deficit. And while prices may be restrained on reports of a potential ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, the reality is that we’re going headlong into an oil shortage. You can’t blame OPEC completely because even if they pumped all out, the corresponding drop in price would lead to a demand surge that would push us to the brink without any spare capacity in the globe. In some ways, OPEC is showing the world a favor by keeping some barrels in reserve and keeping prices elevated because without that, we could see prices spike even higher. If you look back at it the major failure that has led us to the brink of a potential price spike has been the misguided policies of the ESG movement and the green energy movement. The government can inspire us to move in one direction or another but it has to be based on reality and market-based fundamentals.
While the diesel crack collapsed, the gasoline crack seemed to be heating up. And with the real possibility of a supply deficit building, that should keep refiners busy. The FT is reporting that the Biden Whitehouse is telling Ukraine to stop attack Russian oil facilities. The FT says that “The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times. Both intelligence units have steadily expanded their own drone programs to strike Russian targets on land, sea and in the air since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
One person said that the White House had grown increasingly frustrated by brazen Ukrainian drone attacks that have struck oil refineries, terminals, depots and storage facilities across western Russia, hurting its oil production capacity.” Must read
Natural gas prices really can’t get a break. Even with the late winter blast the possibility of another Freeport LNG outage is weighing on the concerns of natural gas producers as it could create another glut especially if it is an extended outage. EBW analytics reports that although Henry Hub spot prices have rebounded on increased heating demand early this week, last week’s extreme weakness may be an early warning sign for the April contract ahead of next week’s final settlement. The storage surplus vs. the five-year average, after adding 525 Bcf since late January, may finally peak this week as extreme blowtorch weather dissipates. Still, even with weather-driven demand edging higher this week and potential Bakken freeze-offs into late March, it may take several weeks to gradually erode a North American storage surplus that has ballooned to 900 Bcf. While the long-term fundamental outlook is strengthening, it will require a prolonged period of low natural gas prices this spring to maintain price-induced power sector demand and incentivize producers to keep supply off the market.
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Energy Daily Market Movers (% Price Change)
By: Energy | March 22, 2024
• Top Movers
AU - Queensland Base-Load Electricity Futures 0.59 %
• Bottom Movers
London IPE Gas Oil Futures 0.95 %
NSW Baseload Electricity Continuous 0.85 %
NY Heating Oil Futures 0.82 %
NY Natural Gas Futures 0.76 %
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline Futures 0.26 %
*Close from the last completed Daily
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April also just-so-happens to be a KILLER month for $XLE over the last 20 years: 70% win rate and average return of +4.38%
By: TrendSpider | March 21, 2024
• April also just-so-happens to be a KILLER month for $XLE over the last 20 years:
70% win rate and average return of +4.38%
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Natural Gas Downtrend is Clear but Rally Above This Week’s High is Bullish
By: Bruce Powers | March 21, 2024
• Despite recent weakness, natural gas shows potential for a bullish ABCD pattern, contingent on staying above 1.64.
Natural gas continued to weaken on Thursday, following a bearish day on Wednesday. It continues to respect the recent swing low support at 1.64 (C), however. If it continues to stay above that swing low there remains a chance for a rising ABCD pattern to follow through. It recently set up with that swing low but only if it continues to be a swing low. A drop below 1.64 would violate the pattern as point C would move to a new swing low, whenever that occurs. And only if the price of natural gas stays above the latest trend low at 1.52 (A).
Stuck in Consolidation Range from 1.64 to 1.77
The last five days of trading occurred within a consolidation range defined by the high and low levels seen on March 14 and 15. It shows a range from 1.64 to 1.77. Today would have been a perfect day for more serious selling to occur following Wednesday’s decline and break below the prior day’s low. if it was going to do so eventually, this would be the day. Instead, natural gas fell below yesterday’s low to 1.65, where it found support and rallied. It continues to advance towards the open at the time of this writing.
Today’s Range Provides Near Term Price Levels
Today’s high and low provide price levels to use to identify the next direction for natural gas. If the high of 1.77 is exceeded there is a chance it will continue to strengthen, at least towards the top of the range. The low today is 1.65. If that price level fails to maintain support the chance for a test and possible decline below the recent swing low of 1.64.
Recent Price Action Rallying into Resistance is Bearish Behavior
As discussed previously, natural gas is in a clear downtrend in all time frames. Since it failed to rally above resistance at 2.01 recently, the chance for a bearish continuation remains a real possibility. That price zone previously represented support. So, support becomes resistance, which is a sign that downtrend is showing signs of continuing. Further, the 20-Day MA failed to maintain support on March 12, and it has marked resistance on each of the past five days.
Advance Above 1.77 is Bullish
Sometimes when a pattern is very clear, the opposite of what is expected occurs. That may or may not happen in this case. The market is clearly showing bearish signs but that changes in the short term on a rally above this week’s high of 1.77, assuming that is the high for the week.
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Energy Daily Market Movers (% Price Change)
By: Marty Armstrong | March 21, 2024
• Top Movers
AU - Queensland Base-Load Electricity Futures 0.74 %
AU - Victoria Base-Load Electricity Futures 0.69 %
• Bottom Movers
NY Natural Gas Futures 2.58 %
London IPE Gas Oil Futures 2.47 %
NY Heating Oil Futures 2.13 %
NY Crude Oil Futures 1.76 %
London IPE Brent Crude Spot 1.64 %
*Close from the last completed Daily
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Natural Gas Critical Resistance at 20-Day MA Leads to Selloff
By: Bruce Powers | March 20, 2024
• Natural gas faces resistance at 20-Day MA after five days of failed rallies, indicating a possible shift to bearish momentum.
There have been five consecutive days of rallies into resistance around the 20-Day MA and each time price has been rejected to the downside. Today is the fifth but with one important difference relative to the previous three days. Trading has occurred below yesterday’s low, and natural gas is on track to close below that low, which was 1.70. This would indicate greater weakness than what was seen in the past couple of days when the lows were above the prior day’s low and the close was green, above the open.
Sellers Back in Control
Today’s drop indicates that the sellers are back in control. After five days of failing to break through the 20-Day line supply became more aggressive, driving prices lower. That is a change in character from recent days. If it can’t go up, then down or sideways are the two choices. It has been going sideways but today indicates maybe a further decline may be forthcoming. The 8-Day MA crossed below the 20-Day three days ago and it continues to be pointing down.
Depending on what happens next, as today is only one day, if the selling pressure continues the recent 1.64 low may be at risk of being busted. If it does fail to hold as support, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level is at 1.63. Weekly support could be seen around 1.64, which was last week’s low.
Increasing Chance of Bearish Continuation
All the signs are there for a possible bearish continuation of the trend. There is a clear downtrend in both the near and long-term price structure and natural gas is below all its moving averages from the 12-Day and up. However, it is sitting at a long-term support zone that includes the lowest traded prices in 28 years. The lowest price of the range is 1.44. It therefore becomes likely that support and a bullish reversal would be seen above that low price.
Recent price action may end up being part of a bottoming process given the significance of the support zone. If that turns out to be the case, the first thing that should happen is a rally above the six-day high of 1.77, followed by a daily close above it. After that the price of natural gas may head higher.
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Prices Stabilize as Colder Weather Spurs Increased Demand
By: James Hyerczyk | March 20, 2024
Key Points:
• Colder weather forecasts elevate natural gas demand after weeks of decline.
• U.S. natural gas production falls, with significant drop in February.
• Potential Freeport LNG train restart may boost demand and prices.
U.S. Natural Gas Market Overview
U.S. natural gas futures remained stable on Wednesday, following a notable increase the day before. This rise was spurred by colder weather forecasts and an anticipated surge in heating demand.
At 12:34 GMT, US Natural Gas is trading $1.747, up $0.003 or +0.17%.
Weather Impact on Demand
Current weather patterns, characterized by colder temperatures in the northern U.S., are expected to drive moderate demand for natural gas over the next week. This shift comes after seven weeks of substantially lower-than-normal demand. The increased need for heating due to cooler weather in the north and central U.S. through March’s end is set to intensify demand. However, this may be somewhat mitigated by a strong upcoming performance in wind energy generation.
Production and Supply Trends
A key factor supporting futures is the continued decline in U.S. gas output, which dipped to a three-and-a-half-year low in February. This decrease is linked to collapsed gas prices and reduced drilling activities by major energy firms. Additionally, the potential resumption of operations at one of Freeport LNG’s liquefaction trains in Texas is expected to heighten demand, further influencing prices.
Storage and Price Fluctuations
Natural gas stockpiles are currently estimated to be about 40% above typical levels, a result of near-record output and reduced winter demand. The low prices experienced recently are projected to drive record U.S. gas consumption in 2024, though they are also anticipated to curtail production for the first time since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
Weather and Production Influencing Gas Futures
Looking ahead, the financial firm LSEG notes a decline in gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states for March. In contrast, gas demand, inclusive of exports, is forecasted to rise slightly. Analysts are monitoring the potential full return to service of Freeport LNG’s Texas plant, which could significantly impact U.S. LNG feedgas levels.
Market Forecast
In the short term, the U.S. natural gas market is leaning towards a bullish outlook. The confluence of rising demand due to cooler weather, a decrease in production, and the potential increase in LNG export capacity positions the market for an uptick in prices and demand. However, the strong performance in alternative energy sources like wind and the high levels of gas in storage could moderate these bullish trends.
Technical Analysis
Daily Natural Gas
U.S. Natural Gas futures are consolidating for a sixth session on Wednesday. The daily chart indicates the short-term trend could turn higher if the buying is strong enough to take out $1.774.
If the upside momentum shifts enough on the move, there is an outside chance of a strong surge into the 50-day moving average at $1.991. Although we expect sellers to re-emerge on a rally into this important moving average, the intermediate trend could turn up if it is taken out with conviction.
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Oil Apprehension. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 20, 2024
Oil apprehension is growing after the front month WTI hit the highest price since last October as expectations of supply deficit start to get priced in as more are predicting a potential peak in US oil production. Yet a not-so-bullish American Petroleum Institute (API) report and high anxiety ahead of today’s big FOMC meeting are causing a bit of a pullback in oil and a drop in diesel cracks is raising some demand concerns.
The API, while not bearish, did not live up to the whisper market expectations heading into the report. The API did show a larger-than-expected 1.519-million-barrel draw, but there was some talk of a much larger draw. We were looking for 3.0 million which may still happen in today’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) report at 9:30a central time but it might not matter if the Fed starts to back off rate cuts as the market has priced in. The API also reported a 1.574 million barrel drop in gasoline supply which is a much smaller drop than last week but not scary enough to drive the crack spread. The diesel crack is under pressure as the supply shortage has eased a bit with a slight increase of 512,000 barrel in the weekly API. John Kemp at Reuters pointed out that hedge funds started to cover positions with the combined position in U.S. diesel and European gas oil down to 55 million barrels from 87 million five weeks earlier.
In today’s EIA report there will be a focus on the demand numbers partly due to an adjustment in how the EIA counts production. The amount of production fell to 13.1 million barrels. Last week the EIA said that their crude oil production estimate incorporates a re-benchmarking that decreased estimated volumes by 177,000 barrels per day, which is about 1.3% of the production total. Yet in a world of growing demand and underinvestment in supply, the longer-term outlook for US energy production is going to become more critical.
S&P global reports that ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference said U.S crude oil production growth in 2024 will likely drop to about 300,000-400,000 b/d in 2024, down from around 1 million b/d in 2023. S&P Global is also reporting that oil product stocks jumped to an 8-month high amid Ramadan. They put the Middle East crude runs to exceed 9 mil b/d for the first time. Total inventories are up 16% since end-2023. Stockpiles of oil products at the UAE’s Port of Fujairah jumped 10% to an eight-month high in the week ended March 18, with regional demand for some products typically slowing during Ramadan observations, according to the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone and historical data. Total inventories increased to 20.049 million barrels as of March 18, the highest since July 10, the FOIZ data published March 20 showed. Stockpiles have increased 16% since the end of 2023.
The Fed worries have slowed momentum, but the underlying outlook is bullish. After the Fed fallout, look for spots to buy.
Natural gas is headed towards a glut but in the big picture could natural gas hit $800. Bloomberg News reports that, “The chief of the largest US producer of natural gas has warned that a lack of pipelines and storage facilities will trigger dramatic price swings in the years ahead, causing them to surge as much 350%. He said, “Gas demand in the US has jumped 50% since 2010, while pipeline and storage capacity have increased just 25% and 10% respectively, EQT Corp. Chief Executive Officer Toby Rice said during an interview at the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston. That leaves the market prone to wild price swings, ranging from today’s level of about $1.75 per million British thermal units to as high as $8, Rice said. “This is the world we live in unless we get serious about getting more infrastructure built,” said Rice, whose company last week agreed to buy Mountain Valley Pipeline developer Equitrans Midstream Corp
Rice is a long-standing and vocal critic of the US regulatory framework and permitting process that he says holds up the construction of new pipeline infrastructure. In November, he warned that a pipeline crunch threatened to trigger an energy crisis. Rice also said in December that falling prices would lead to a slowdown in drilling and that prices were well below the break-even cost of production.
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Natural Gas: Consolidation Continues, Watch for Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | March 19, 2024
• Natural gas remains in consolidation near resistance, with prices trading within a narrow range. A breakout above 1.77 could signal a bullish turn.
Natural gas remained in consolidation on Tuesday, as it once again tested resistance around the 20-Day MA (purple). It continues to trade within a five-day range with a high of 1.77 and a low of 1.64. Natural gas briefly advanced above the 20-Day line in late-February after being below it since mid-January. However, the current retracement took it back below the line last week, where it has remained.
Although there has been no continued selloff since then as consolidation has ruled, several successful tests of resistance at the 20-Day MA occurred recently and it reflects bearish price behavior. That would change with a decisive rally above 1.77. But until then, the chance for a bearish continuation remains.
Downtrend on Multiple Time Frames
As can be seen on the chart, natural gas is in a downtrend on multiple time frames. Highlighting the decline starting from the October 27 swing high of 3.64, a series of lower swing lows and highs can be seen on the chart with the most recent lower swing low occurring at the February 20 trend low. There was a brief high swing low generated on January 22, but that attempt to rally quickly faded and led to the most recent lower swing low. Last week’s low was a second attempt at a higher swing low, if it can be maintained.
Bulls Watch for 1.77 Breakout
A decisive breakout above the consolidation high at 1.77 prior to a drop below 1.64 will increase the chances for a higher swing low. This is important as the swing low forms the structure of the trend. One of the first signs that the trend might be attempting to turn up after being down for a while is the occurrence of a higher swing low.
A daily close above 1.77 would confirm that upside breakout and the higher swing low. Natural gas would then be heading towards the bottom zone of the declining blue dashed parallel trend channel. Resistance was seen in that area during the recent rally to the 2.01 peak (B). Next up is the 50-Day MA at 2.10. A simple rising ABCD pattern would complete close to that price level at 2.13.
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Gas Demand Follies. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 19, 2024
The first sign of spring is rising gasoline prices. Gasoline prices are surging as RBOB futures hit the highest level since last September on refinery outages and seasonal factors but also because the weak global gasoline demand narrative is filling up with reality. Gasoline demand in the United States is stronger than people had anticipated and if you listen to Exxon Mobil, global gasoline demand has never been better.
ExxonMobil says that global gasoline demand is through the roof and the electronic car movement hasn’t cut into global demand like people assume that it would. Even with all the money that we’ve spent trying to convince Americans to drive electric cars, it seems that that push is falling flat on its face. This of course is probably a good thing because let’s face it, the production of all those electronic vehicles adds to greenhouse gas emissions.
While there is no doubt that people are feeling the impact of higher gasoline prices, so far the demand for gasoline, if you look at the trends, is going to continue to stay strong. The good news for drivers is that the Whiting, IN BP refinery is reportedly back online. But we still have supply shortages around the globe everywhere you look. Refinery outages due to Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia are going to tighten global supply even more and the world will look to the United States to fill that void. I have said before the possibility for price spikes is extremely high when you have oil supplies that are heading into a global deficit and when you have product supplies below average throughout the world, the risk of higher prices and price spikes continues to be high.
Also, if you want to feel better, John Kemp at Reuters points out that gasoline prices were slightly below the average since the turn of the century last month, after adjusting for inflation. Nationwide pump prices (including taxes) averaged $3.33 per gallon in February 2024, which was in the 43rd percentile for all months since 2000 after adjusting for core inflation, explaining why fuel prices have been a political non-issue in recent months.
Today we’re going to get another weekly report from the American Petroleum Institute to find out just how tight supplies are becoming. We expect that we will see a drawdown of 3,000,000 barrels of crude oil this week. We should also see a similar drawdown in gasoline as well as distilled inventories. If that sounds bullish to you then you better hang on to your hat because some of the whisper numbers that we’re hearing from different sources suggest that we could see a crude oil drawdown of over 7 million barrels.
While oil prices may see a little bit of slowing momentum due to the rising dollar and fears about what the Fed may do on interest rates, the reality is that when it comes to supply versus demand I’m afraid we’ve already had the results baked in. Yes, it was historic that Japan raised its interest rates for the first time in 17 years but that was widely expected. If you look at the market action for oil today, it seems to be divorcing itself a little bit from some of the macroeconomic concerns that was driving oil over the last couple of months.
We are in a global supply crunch when it comes to everything petroleum. As we have been running for months, supplies are below average across the globe and now we’re starting to see the demand narrative unwind. This is why we’ve been recommending to be hedged for the long term and continue to recommend that.
Natural gas prices are getting a little bit of hope with a little blast of winter and hope it will see some production cutbacks. Still, negative pricing in some basins may put many producers out of business.
Gold prices have pulled back after its recent record-breaking run and silver. Peter Thomas Chairman at AUSECURE says, “After a week of continuous new highs in the gold market followed by a break triggered by the CPI this week started off very quietly with both the funds and the banks holding off trade as we all wait for the FOMC to be released. Gold spent most of the early trade lower on the day and then tremors out of Russia started after President Vladimir Putin warned NATO that he is fully prepared to use his nuclear weapons. Putin coined a new term not heard before in which he said “sanitary zone” between Ukraine and Russia. Gold rallied up to $6.00 higher on the day but drifted slowly lower over the midday trade. The attitude of the trading day felt neutral towards the close.
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$WTIC $OIL - Into that 1st Target from the Inv Bull Plot...
By: Sahara | March 19, 2024
• $WTIC $OIL - Latest
Into that 1st Target from the Inv Bull Plot...
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Energy Daily Market Movers (% Price Change)
By: Marty Armstrong | March 19, 2024
• Top Movers
NY Natural Gas Futures 2.9 %
NY Heating Oil Futures 2.4 %
London IPE Gas Oil Futures 2.15 %
NY Crude Oil Futures 1.96 %
London IPE Brent Crude Futures 1.82 %
• Bottom Movers
NSW Baseload Electricity Continuous 0.28 %
*Close from the last completed Daily
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Shattered Ceilings. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 18, 2024
Brent Crude traded over $86 a barrel posting a new high price for the year as bearish narratives around oil and demand and the fallacies of the energy transition have started to fall apart. The oil markets are starting to price the realities of an undersupplied market after the International Energy Agency had to admit that they were way off in its projection of oil demand and OPEC compliance should be improving with a major announcement by Iraq.
There are reports overnight that Iraq’s oil minister is going to reduce its crude oil exports by 3.3 million barrels a day in the coming months to absorb any increase in registered production that they made in January and February. In other words, they’re cutting back production to make up for the cheating that they’ve done previously.
This should offset the extra oil coming out of Russia because of the damage done to their refineries by the Ukrainian drones. Reports are saying that Russian oil exports from its western ports will be up by 10% to 2.15 million barrels a day. Reuters reports that long-range Ukrainian attack drones launched by the SBU domestic security service have hit 12 Russian oil refineries during the war so far, a Ukrainian intelligence source told Reuters on Sunday. Officials in the southern Russian region of Krasnodar said Ukrainian drones had attacked the Slavyansk oil refinery, 70km (45 miles) north of the regional capital, overnight. The Ukrainian source said the refinery, which processes about 4.5 million metric tons of crude a year and produces fuel mainly for exports, had been attacked in an operation staged by the SBU security service and other Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, the inability of the refineries to produce diesel is causing a surge in diesel prices. This morning we also saw a gasoline surge as well and the reports of weak demand were greatly exaggerated.
That means crack and diesel crack looks to be breaking out on the upside as the market is starting to realize that there’s going to be strong demand for both.
This comes on a week when the market must balance ongoing attacks in the Red Sea and how the rising cost of oil is going to impact the Fed’s plan to cut interest rates. Underneath the oil movement, oil stocks are gaining momentum as the ESG movement is facing the reality that it is contrary to sufficient reason. Decisions made by governments surrounding the green energy transition have made it almost impossible for the US to meet energy demand in the short term and long term.
Reuters reported that in February this year, the IEA predicted demand would rise by 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, while in its February report, OPEC expected 2.25 million bpd. The difference is about 1% of world demand. The difference between between the International Energy Agency and OPEC is a major problem the International Energy Agency is having a moment where they have to start to face up to the reality that the world is going to need a lot more fossil fuels than they have originally reported they have to get back to their mission of energy security from for Europe. The energy agencies and their bad predictions fed into the energy and security loss that we’ve seen in Europe.
Now that the market is starting to realize something that we have been warning about for some time, there is extreme risk to the upside. The globe is heading into a supply deficit and that means that we are still going to be very vulnerable to price spikes. Make sure you are hedged. As we mentioned before we thought there was huge value in energy stocks. ExxonMobil has outperformed the S&P 500 over recent months.
Can there be any hope for a natural gas rally? A surprise increase in rig counts is a head-scratcher. EBW Analytics reported that plunging natural gas prices cleared as low as $1.24/MMBtu last week as extremely mild temperatures nationally—more akin to late April than mid-March—slashed demand for natural gas and pulled the April contract lower to retest contract lows at $1.64/MMBtu. Still, a combination of technical support, weather adding 16 gHDDs over the weekend, supply stabilizing at low levels 3.5 Bcf/d below February highs, and peaking storage surpluses may all help the NYMEX front-month find support near-term and attempt to turn higher.
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$WTI - Crude oil has reached the upper weekly BB and the 50% retracement of the September-December decline. The 24 week cycle high was due this week, so there's a high probability that it topped at 81.50. I expect a bearish reversal next week.
By: CyclesFan | March 16, 2024
• $WTI - Crude oil has reached the upper weekly BB and the 50% retracement of the September-December decline. The 24 week cycle high was due this week, so there's a high probability that it topped at 81.50. I expect a bearish reversal next week.
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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 16, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 12, 2024.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 282.5k, down 10.4k.
Oil bulls maintained their onslaught at the upper end of an 18-month range between $71-$72 and $81-$82. Intraday Thursday, West Texas Intermediate crude tagged $81.62 before retreating to end the week up 3.3 percent to $80.58/barrel.
From the bulls’ perspective, the good thing is that the crude has trended higher since bottoming at $67.71 last December. Thursday’s high was the highest since early November last year. WTI remains above both the 50- and 200-day, with the former rising and the latter flattish. At this rate, a golden cross between the averages is just a matter of time.
With that said, the range resistance mentioned previously is standing firm. Plus, conditions – the weekly in particular – are in overbought territory.
In the meantime, as per the EIA, US crude production in the week to March 8th fell 100,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.1 million b/d; until two weeks ago, output was at a record 13.3 mb/d. Crude imports decreased 1.7 mb/d to 5.5 mb/d. As did stocks of crude and gasoline, which respectively dropped 1.5 million barrels and 5.7 million barrels to 447 million barrels and 234.1 million barrels. Inventory of distillates, however, increased 888,000 barrels to 117.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization increased 1.9 percentage points to 86.8 percent.
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Natural Gas Bearish Momentum Reigns After Brief Bullish Reversal
By: Bruce Powers | March 15, 2024
• Natural gas sees bearish price action after a brief bullish reversal, encountering resistance near the 20-Day MA.
Natural gas got hammered today with bearish price action following yesterday’s one-day bullish reversal. Following an outside day yesterday and strong close that tested resistance at the 20-Day MA, natural gas encountered resistance today near that line following the day’s high of 1.77. That high briefly exceeded yesterday’s high. At the time of this writing, natural gas continues to trade near the lows of the day as it tests support heading towards yesterday’s low of 1.64. If today ends near the lows of the day or below yesterday’s low, the risk of further downside increases.
Next Lower Support Zone Starts at 1.63
Potential support around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement is close by at 1.63, along with prior support at 1.61. These levels can be looked at as a potential support range from 1.63 to 1.61. Moreover, there is a more significant price level at 1.59 as it is a weekly low. Earlier this week a bearish reversal was triggered on the weekly chart as the price of natural gas dropped below last week’s low of 1.755. A drop below the three-week low at 1.59 would indicate further weakness and increases the chance that the downtrend may continue below the recent trend low of 1.52. Two weekly support levels failing within one week is bearish.
Resistance was seen recently at 2.01, which is the bottom of the blue dashed descending trend channel. It shows prior support levels now acting as resistance since the price levels were busted on the way down. This behavior reflects the remaining weakness from the long-term downtrend.
Negative Reaction to Thursday’s Intraday Advance
Given today’s negative reaction to yesterday’s bullish price action, the indication is that the downtrend still dominates. It seems fair therefore to use this week’s high of 1.84 as an important price level to key off. If natural gas remains below that weekly high downward pressure remains and the downtrend rules. A rally above that high would be needed to improve the chances for a sustainable rally and bottom reversal.
Weekly High for Bullish Signal
If a bullish reversal from this week’s candle does occur natural gas will next be heading up into potential resistance at the bottom of the declining trend channel. Further, the recent swing high of 2.01 marks the next higher possible resistance zone. Nevertheless, a daily close above the lower trend channel line (blue dash) will increase the chance that natural gas can eventually rally above 2.01.
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