Oil - Light Crude - Continuous Contract (OILCRUDE)

[TREND1]

*****crude oil futures 5 min . hourly , daily , weekly


http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=110697562

[nowwhat2]

Wow. Yes I just read some very applicable stuff - regarding that situation.

Am not very good at my comprehension of such,,,,,

Only could sense that it's sounding real grim.

Contagion ramifications abound they believed.

$WTIC LoL - Where crude means CRASH (not cash)

[Pro-Life]

In the chart below, the price of $WTIC is correlated with JNK (Junk Bond ETF) which has a ratio of 1 which does not happen usually. In other words, Junk Bonds are being crushed along with $WTIC (oil). We have a bursting Junk Bond bubble.

[Pro-Life]

I'm in favor of saying the next crisis is in Junk Bonds... issued by oil and mining and every conceivable large company that over spent on risky exploration and stock buy back programs... watch a multitude of companies fade away to irrelevance or cease to exist. In other words, irresponsible financial actions at the top of these companies that had executives unable to protect pennies acting as though prices would stay up forever, such as oil, now demonstrably unable to take care of dollars (BILLIONS!!!).

[nowwhat2]

Interesting !

[Pro-Life]

Hmmmmmm... What Crisis Is The Gold/Oil Ratio Predicting This Time?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/17/2016 21:20 -0500

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-17/what-crisis-goldoil-ratio-predicting-time

The number of barrels of oil that a single ounce of gold can buy has never, ever been higher.


For the last 30 years, when the ratio of gold-to-oil spikes, something systemically serious occurs globally (as opposed to the usual bullshit "this is transitory" statements).

So what happens next?

[Pro-Life]

Natural Gas Prices Signaling Oil Bottom for Investors
Submitted by EconMatters on 01/07/2016 20:08 -0500

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-07/natural-gas-prices-signaling-oil-bottom-investors

[Pro-Life]

$34 Handle After Record Gasoline Inventory Build
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/06/2016 10:39 -0500

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-06/wti-crude-plunges-34-handle-gasoline-distillate-inventories-soar

[Pro-Life]

Next Stop for U.S. Natural Gas Is 20-Year Low Amid Warm Weather
Christine Buurma December 15, 2015 — 9:05 AM EST Updated on December 16, 2015 — 4:33 PM EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-15/natural-gas-futures-extend-slide-to-14-year-low-on-mild-december

[Pro-Life]

Officials say US oil bankruptcies at Great Recession-era levels…
Posted December 25, 2015 7:23 am by PatriotRising

http://patriotrising.com/2015/12/25/officials-say-us-oil-bankruptcies-at-great-recession-era-levels/

For American drillers, the New Year will likely bring more of the same – financial pressure and mass layoffs.

The U.S. petroleum industry hasn’t seen this many bankruptcies in one quarter since the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas says, counting nine Chapter 11 court filings in the year’s final three-month period. And that’s just a third of the year’s domestic casualty count.

The Dallas Fed also estimates in a new report on Thursday the nation has lost about 70,000 oil and gas jobs since October 2014, a 14.5 percent drop in the 14 months after the domestic shale drilling boom that drew thousands to Houston’s oil hub began a steep decline.

But the sacrifice of dozens of U.S. oil producers, thousands of oil field workers and more than 1,200 drilling rigs still hasn’t stalled U.S. crude production enough to shrink the global oil glut that has sent oil prices below $40 a barrel.

Global crude supplies, the Fed said, could outpace demand by 600,000 barrels a day, and the world’s crude storage tanks may not start to decline until 2017.

That’s in part because increased production from Iran has come on earlier than anticipated and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to continue pumping crude at current levels.

Iran, which expects western sanctions on its oil exports to be eased next year, has said it wants to pump an additional 500,000 barrels a day. Goldman Sachs believes that OPEC, which includes Iran, will boost its daily production in 2016 by 640,000 barrels. But that’s a conservative estimate that assumes Iran will only put out 285,000 barrels a day next year.

Meanwhile, U.S. output has fallen more slowly than expected, with production declines leveling out in recent weeks, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as the market absorbs crude production from drilling activity that happened early last summer, when oil prices were $60 a barrel.

Big-ticket oil projects coming into production in the Gulf of Mexico boosted U.S. supplies by 500,000 barrels a day from July to September, which tempered the decline in the nation’s shale plays.

“Given the great uncertainty surrounding projections and the timing of supply and demand changes, the coming year promises to be a dynamic one for the oil markets,” the Fed said.

U.S. crude rose 53 cents in early trading Thursday to $38.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, climbing 12 percent since the market reached a rock-bottom low a few days ago. Brent, the international benchmark, increased 30 cents to $37.66 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe.

[Pro-Life]

"Unstoppable" California Gas Leak Now Being Called Worst Catastrophe Since BP Spill
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/24/2015 08:19 -0500

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-24/unstoppable-california-gas-leak-now-being-called-worst-catastrophe-bp-spill

... the infamous Erin Brockovich writes, "the enormity of the Aliso Canyon gas leak cannot be overstated. Gas is escaping through a ruptured pipe more than 8,000 feet underground, and it shows no signs of stopping," as according to the California Air Resources Board, methane - a greenhouse gas 72 times more impactful in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide - has been escaping from the Aliso Canyon site with force equivalent “to a volcanic eruption” for about two months now.

Video and MUCH more available at the link above...

[Pro-Life]

Banks are massively short Gas and Oil futures:

http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/BankParticipationReports/deadec15f

[Pro-Life]

Something Strange Is Taking Place In The Middle Of The Atlantic Ocean
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/16/2015 23:55 -0500

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-16/something-strange-taking-place-middle-atlantic-ocean

Early last month, we noted that something very strange was happening off the coast of Galveston, Texas.

As FT reported, "the amount of oil [now] at sea is at least double the levels of earlier this year and is equivalent to more than a day of global oil supply.” In short: the global deflationary crude supply glut is beginning to manifest itself in a flotilla of stationary supertankers, as millions of barrels of oil are simply stuck in the ocean as VLCCs wait to unload.

There is much more and charts, as well, at the link above...

[Pro-Life]

An industry collapse seems to be at hand which means altered lives...

[Pro-Life]

Crude has not been this cheap since 2004:

[Pro-Life]

Looks like $WTIC is going to close at multi-year lows in November's monthly chart...

[Pro-Life]

Something Very Strange Is Taking Place Off The Coast Of Galveston, TX
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/12/2015 - 10:43

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-12/something-very-strange-taking-place-coast-galveston

Having exposed the world yesterday to the 2-mile long line of tankers-full'o'crude heading from Iraq to the US, several weeks after reporting that China has run out of oil storage space we can now confirm that the global crude "in transit" glut is becoming gargantuan and is starting to have adverse consequences on the price of oil.

While the crude oil tanker backlog in Houston reaches an almost unprecedented 39 (with combined capacity of 28.4 million barrels), as The FT reports that from China to the Gulf of Mexico, the growing flotilla of stationary supertankers is evidence that the oil price crash may still have further to run, as more than 100m barrels of crude oil and heavy fuels are being held on ships at sea (as the year-long supply glut fills up available storage on land). The storage problems are so severe in fact, that traders asking ships to go slow, and that is where we see something very strange occurring off the coast near Galveston, TX.

There is more at the link above...

[Pro-Life]

The Shale Massacre: Chevron Fires Another 7,000 After Laying Off 1,500 Three Months Ago
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/30/2015 10:25 -0400

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-30/shale-massacre-chevron-fires-another-7000-after-laying-1500-three-months-ago

The good news: shareholders have nothing to worry about: the dividend of $1.07 per share is safe and sound, even though nearly 10,000 people have lost their jobs at Chevron so far this year.

And while the US department of labor magically continues to report week after week that initial jobless claims have literally never been lower, don't tell that to US workers across the shale patch and especially in Texas where as the accurate report of what is really going on from Challenger Gray shows, it is nothing short of another great recession.

The rest of the story is available at the link above...

[Pro-Life]

Basically, the crude price is holding/consolidating without a great deal of volatility... stable at the moment.

[Lowjack]

You see what I was sayin?

Same thing happens when someone buys up all the beer!

[Pro-Life]

Oil Surges To $45 After Saudi Troops Invade Yemen
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2015 12:30 -0400

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/oil-surges-after-saudi-troops-invade-yemen

For the 3rd day in a row, crude oil prices are spiking as the short squeeze morphs into a war premium. Heberler reports that Saudi ground troops have entered Northern Yemen and seized control of two areas in the Saada province. WTI is now above $45...

More plus video available at the link above...

[Pro-Life]

I think the back of the oil/energy bear has been broken... Period.

[Lowjack]

Bull flag!!! Build cash above 65!

[parrot head]

WRES is in a tear last 2 sessions.

[Lowjack]

LMFAO!

[Pro-Life]

Check out the newest P&F chart... $15/bbl?!?!?! Que loco!!!

[Lowjack]

Ooops! That works.

I meant this though.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/Prudhoe-Bay-Royalty-BPT-453/

[Pro-Life]

You mean this gem???

http://investorshub.advfn.com/Permian-Basin-Royalty-Trust-PBT-18262/

[Lowjack]

Track is wrong! Heading for the gulf!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Got PBT?

[Lowjack]

Know what! Hurricane season!

[Pro-Life]

Guess what... Tentative revised P&F bearish price objective: $23/bbl

[Pro-Life]

Junk-Rated Offshore Drillers Headed into Bankruptcy: Fitch
by Wolf Richter • August 17, 2015

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/17/junk-rated-offshore-drillers-after-hercules-headed-into-bankruptcy-fitch/

[Pro-Life]

Both hands... Yikes...

[Lowjack]

That's what happens when you mess with the Russians! They break every finger on your hand!

[Lowjack]

I don't see it below $40.

[Pro-Life]

Pain Worsens for Oil Giants Exxon and Chevron
Date : 07/31/2015 @ 8:48PM
Source : Dow Jones News

http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=67980892

America's two biggest oil companies, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., reported their worst profits from pumping oil and natural gas in more than a decade as low crude prices lopped off billions of dollars from their quarterly haul.

Exxon's second-quarter profit plunged 52% to $4.2 billion. The energy giant's division that pumps oil and gas accounted for just $2 billion of that, the lowest level since 2002. Chevron eked out a quarterly profit of $571 million thanks to its fuel-making refineries, which made up for the company's $2.2 billion loss from pumping oil and gas--the first such loss in nearly 20 years. Chevron lowered its outlook for crude prices and wrote down the value of its energy holdings by $2 billion.

The hard landing fell short of analysts' expectations, and Exxon and Chevron shares dropped nearly 5% Friday, making them the two worst performers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Global oil prices have fallen more than 50% since last June, and settled Friday at $52 a barrel, the lowest since January. Exxon and Chevron have posted bigger profits during the 2009 downturn and earlier oil busts. But the world's biggest oil companies are ailing from more than low prices--problems that were masked when oil traded around $100 a barrel.

"The tide's going out and now we can see what was at the bottom," said Amy Myers Jaffe, executive director of energy and sustainability at the University of California-Davis.

The cost of unleashing new supplies of oil and gas has soared for the world's biggest oil companies, as they have spent enormous sums to harvest natural gas from Australia's remote waters and wring crude from Canada's oil sands, Ms. Jaffe noted.

Chevron is preparing to start up a massive gas-exporting project in Australia, whose costs have ballooned 45% to $54 billion. Exxon has boosted its oil output by scooping up thick, sludge-like crude from mines in the forests of Western Canada, a fuel that is expensive to unearth and sells for less than traditional oil. Royal Dutch Shell PLC on Thursday began wildcatting for oil in Alaska's Arctic waters, an undertaking that has already cost it more than $7 billion and it could take another decade before any oil flows.

As crude prices have tumbled over the past year, the three behemoths have been spending more to coax fuel from the ground and on dividends to shareholders than they have generated in cash. The companies are trying to conserve cash by laying off workers, negotiating for discounts with their suppliers and cutting spending.

Exxon plans to spend half as much on buying back its stock during the third quarter. Shell said this week it will cut 6,500 workers from its world-wide payroll. Chevron is reducing its workforce by 1,500, and didn't raise the dividend for the second quarter, as it typically does. Patricia Yarrington, Chevron's chief financial officer, said the company is committed to extending its streak of annual dividend increases for 27 years. "It is our number one priority," she said.

The companies are also seizing savings amid the downturn, particularly in the U.S. Jay Johnson, a Chevron executive vice president, said the company had been able to bring down the cost of tapping oil and gas by 20% to 50%, making it profitable to drill some new prospects even at today's oil prices. Exxon has operated at a lower cost on U.S. soil over the last three years than many smaller drillers, said Jeff Woodbury, head of investor relations. But both companies reported losses from their U.S. oil-and-gas drilling operations through the first half of the year, as have rivals BP PLC and ConocoPhillips.

The oil giants typically weather energy downturns because of their countercyclical businesses. When oil prices are high, they make richer profits from pumping crude out of the ground. When prices are low, they make more money from refining inexpensive crude into fuels like gasoline and diesel that they can sell at a greater profit.

Until this year, Exxon and Chevron typically made the vast majority of their profits from oil and gas production. Refining operations and chemical-making units have accounted for less than a quarter of Exxon's profits and barely 10% of Chevron's over the last 10 years. This year, however, is a different story.

Exxon made more money from refining crude and selling chemicals in the second quarter than it did from producing oil and gas--the first time since at least 2000. Chevron turned a $3 billion profit from its fuel-making plants, boosted by selling a stake in an Australia refiner, which accounted for the lion's share of its profits.

"I think they're largely benefiting from the integrated model," said Allen Good, a Morningstar Inc. analyst. Still, he said, they are spending more to generate cash than they used to.

Meanwhile, the price of crude continues to crater and many analysts don't see a rebound on the horizon.

IHS Energy, a research and consulting group, said the global oil glut is intensifying because the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Iraq have increased their collective output by 2 million barrels a day since November. Prices are poised to drop even further and could linger in a low $40-range for months before growing oil supplies stop swelling, according to a new report.

"Oil prices will be under downward pressure until there is evidence the glut is shrinking," IHS analysts wrote. "This will not happen quickly unless prices fall even further from recent levels."

Write to Daniel Gilbert at [e-mail]

[Pro-Life]

Tentative P&F Chart Bearish Price Objective $33/barrell:

[Lowjack]

I borrowed the chart!

Then I went and made one to post!



If you're going to draw trend lines and post them, make sure you start from the begining of time~!!!

[reaper247]

Hey there Lowjack,

Thanks for the chart.

Pro-Life was gracious enough to post a very similar chart on one of my OTC plays.

The two reasons that I am sitting this out for now, is the failed pinch on the weekly chart.

That pinch took months to form and resulted in what looks like a potential dead cat bounce.

The second reason is because Pro-Life incorporated a $USD overlay on his chart.

I can't post complex charts like you guys because I am a cheapskate.

I see several secondary overlays and indicators that might indicate a bounce, but the failed pinch and $USD trend is keeping me out of the game.

Thanks again for posting the chart.

This board is one of the most under utilized boards on ihub.

It would be great to get more guys like you posting opinions here.

Have a great night.

IMO and FWIW.

[Lowjack]

Buyer of Capitulation!

[Pro-Life]

$WTIC bullish price objective from the P&F chart: $66

[reaper247]

I am probably preaching to the choir here Pro-Life.

I looked at HES. Wow...not sure I would wanna try to play that.

Its a shame to see those Bakken players hurting.

I would love to see Canadians flipping the bill for the Keystone, that would lower transportation costs for Bakken players to Cushing.

I guess Buffet would then have to sell all those Burlington-Northern oil cars for scrap.

Its part of the reason I still think oil moves higher at some point.

BNSF needs revenues. Oil is the primary force there.

IMO and FWIW.

[Pro-Life]

Hess to Sell 50% Stake in Bakken Assets For $2.68 Billion
Date : 06/11/2015 @ 9:40AM
Source : Dow Jones News

http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=67240826

[reaper247]

I agree Pro-Life.

I know there are guys that can make money trading channels, but I am not one of them. I hate trying to make money in a sideways market.

I heard there are around 3000 wells that have been drilled but not finished (fracked) in 2015 so far, waiting to come online.

That new production can come online pretty quickly. It will probably keep $WTIC in the channel.

You never know though.

IMO and FWIW.

[Pro-Life]

In 2 months since the bottom, this oil price is still struggling in a trading range, in my view.

[reaper247]

hey Pro-Life.

I just saw this slightly dated, but relevant PDF on Texas shale formations.

Its a fairly big file download, but contains a lot of info.

It is 82 pages and about 5 megs, but worth a look.

http://www.howardweil.com/docs/Reports/OtherReports/PermianBasin01-27-14.pdf

Congrats to you and lon on a different play.

Holy Moly, Nice gainer there.

IMO and FWIW.

[reaper247]

Breitling Energy has released their full length documentary “Breaking Free: The Shale Rock Revolution” this week online and on DVD.

It was produced by Breitling CEO Chris Faulkner and filmmaker Robin Bossert, focusing on the controversial techniques of horizontal drilling and fracturing.

Here is the trailer. It should be interesting to anyone trading oil and gas stocks or commodities.

IMO and FWIW.

[Leirum]

Crashes in whatever market are bad for the blood-pressure. Looks the market want's to test the 2009 low. The only ones smiling were those who bought puts and wrote nacked calls.

[Pro-Life]

Crude knows no bottom... Amazing...

[Leirum]

What a roller-coaster this has been the last couple of weeks in the Index and in the Crude.

Thanks god I decided for a the leverage 5 to 1 and not higher. Otherwise somebody would have gotten my positions cheap.

Important lesson: When volatility goes to an extrem start with a low leverage