Oil - Light Crude - Continuous Contract (OILCRUDE)

[Pro-Life]

Your observation is:

Heck, it was oversold in early October and kept dropping from there. So much for TA.

I once heard this:

The stock/commodity may be oversold or overbought but it it can become even mores for far longer than anyone can imagine.

Then I heard/read that iven after seeing extremes, the only way to step in is by waiting to see confirming signals before buying or selling.

FWIW

[reaper247]

That reminds me of the movie "Margin Call," which I consider to be one of the best Wall Street movies of all time.

As far as $WTIC is concerned, I am still watching (and owning a small position for now) in LGCY.

They are located in the Permian Basin, where extraction costs are lower than other shale plays in the US, but they also seem to have a decent hedge policy against low oil and gas prices through a series of swaps and collars.

The last 10-Q on pages 20-23 shows their derivative positions.

I am not really smart enough to understand some of these collars and bull/bear spreads that advanced traders like you do, but it looks like they have sufficiently guarded against this downturn.

Some analysts have expressed concern over LGCY's divi obligations on the preferreds, but I saw The Street put LGCY on radar because the RSI dipped below 30 yesterday.

Heck, it was oversold in early October and kept dropping from there. So much for TA.

This market is hilariously frustrating at the moment.

IMO and FWIW.

[reaper247]

Thanks for all the info Pro-Life.

There is certainly a lot to consider there.

Always appreciate your comments and insight.

[Pro-Life]

Another view: Saudi Arabia's SECRET to Cause a MASSIVE Drop in Price of Oil!

[Pro-Life]

A follow-up from earlier: The American People Are Utterly Clueless About What Is Going To Happen As We Enter 2015
By Michael Snyder, on December 29th, 2014

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/american-people-utterly-clueless-going-happen-enter-2015

Please, click the link above as the article is loaded with quotes, hyperlinks and a video...

[Pro-Life]

One word answer: manipulation... the $USD, like every other fiat currency has nothing but a destructive trail of debt in their respective wakes... loose money policies started here and will end here with the rest of the world hating our guts for having policies of debt, slavery if you will, that have adversely affected every other country.

There is a bigger plan out there (conspiracy) to bring about a one world money. Right now, there are countries that have no choice but to continue their own policy of pegging their currency to the $USD. Use Peru as an example. But, since the $USD has no true backing anymore (thanks, Nixon... "I am not a crook"... sheeesh), as in $GOLD and/or $SILVER, the currenies can be whatever the powers that be say what it is.

Fiat currency. There are no rules/standards. There are no free markets.

There are whispers that Iran has already made the move away from the $USD. China already stopped US treasury purchases. The world already hates the US. Jealousy? Nope. Policy.

I trust nothing and leave nothing to chance. I do not know the duration of any of these down cycles. I am out of the markets right now. Not even the futures markets.

FWIW

The Lawless Manipulation of Bullion Markets by Public Authorities
Paul Craig Roberts - December 23, 2014

http://www.thedailybell.com/editorials/35939/Paul-Craig-Roberts-The-Lawless-Manipulation-of-Bullion-Markets-by-Public-Authorities/

Chris Powell of GATA - Central Banks Destroy Our Markets & Democracy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIqnBeRMBJQ

[reaper247]

Hey Pro-Life,

I get $WTIC being down because of the domestic energy oil glut that will take time to resolve, but I still don’t understand $BRENT being pulled down because of it.

The fundamentals of North Atlantic Crude haven’t changed and when OPEC cut prices to the US, they raised prices to Europe and Asia at the same time.

Those reserves are being depleted and its not like they can go “wildcatting” in the deep North Atlantic.

The Saudi’s are and have been one America’s biggest allies since the formation of OPEC and the petrodollar during the Nixon years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar

After OPEC’s recent decision to leave poorer members swinging in the breeze, why wouldn’t a poorer nation like Ecuador, Iran or Nigeria abandon the petrodollar and allow countries like China to purchase oil with their own currency like the Yuan?

If one of those poorer countries splintered from OPEC, and reduced the need for the $USD as a reserve currency around the world to purchase energy, wouldn’t we see a drop in demand for the dollar, sending most domestic commodities higher while tanking equities?

Do you think that the poorer OPEC countries are hanging in there because they know this is a temporary drop and have had some reassurances from the Saudis?

I just cant quite wrap my head around what is happening here.

Always appreciate you opinions.

IMO and FWIW.

[Pro-Life]

Fresh new multi-year lows on the weekly/monthly charts...

[Pro-Life]

From my futures broker...

[interloper]

Where are you guys getting intraday crude oil prices that aren't 15 min old?

[reaper247]

Powering America Radio with Chris Faulkner, Thomas Miller and Parker Hallam.

There is finally a talk show dedicated to the oil and gas industry. They follow $WTIC primarily along with $BRENT and the broader markets.

https://www.facebook.com/poweringamerica

Sponsored by Breitling Energy and Crude Energy, all episodes are posted as podcasts available on the Breitling website and on iTunes.

http://www.breitlingenergy.com/poweringamerica/

Outstanding guests and callers make this program especially interesting for traders.

You can call anytime with questions or comments @ 1-800-940-3722.

IMO and FWIW.

[Leirum]

It is always good to go "positive" into the Weekend.

[Pro-Life]

Today was BIG... +7%... money made on this bounce and still in the trade.

[Leirum]

I would say an excellent bottom and for oil as well

[ppl_first]

Thanks to Pro-Choice and 56Chevy for the oil tips. My plan is to pick no more than half a dozen and diversify some cash through those 6, hopefully timing the bottom of the market, but since this is a new scenario where OPEC doesn't seem to be in control, I will be monitoring very closely to make sure there will actually be a rebound. Could $40 be the new $90?

[Leirum]

Thanks very informative.

Blackstone at least is pleased about the Situation.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/12/11/stephen-schwarzman-sees-opportunities-in-energy/?_r=1

[Pro-Life]

"This $550 Billion Mania Ends Badly," Energy Companies Are "Shut Out Of The Credit Market"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2014 - 21:00

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-12/550-billion-mania-ends-badly-energy-companies-are-shut-out-credit-market

Lots of charts... click the link above...

[Leirum]

I would say a bottom of some Kind is forming a la 2008/2009

[Pro-Life]

Crude Carnage Contagion: Biggest Stock Bloodbath In 3 Years, Credit Crashes
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2014 16:04 -0500

Tons of charts... divergences everywhere...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-12/crude-carnage-contagion-biggest-stock-bloodbath-3-years-credit-crashes

[ppl_first]

Looking to get in at the bottom. Since I'm not currently in the oil market, I'm trying to find the biggest play to make when it reverses and starts going back up. Any suggestions on low-price stocks that have averages far above the current levels?

[Leirum]

Looks good and maybe we have seen a cycle low for some time.

[Leirum]

Deja vue in this cycle. 1984 not shown here but similar to the rest.

[Pro-Life]

Crude Crashes Most In Over 5 Years
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 11/28/2014 12:50 -0500

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-28/crude-crashes-most-over-5-years

Because nothing says global demand is picking up like the biggest collapse in crude oil prices since April 2009...

[Pro-Life]

Crude down 10.45%... in one (1) day!!! Yikes!!!

[Pro-Life]

"There Will Be Blood": Petrodollar Death Means A Liquidity And Oil-Exporting Crisis On Deck
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/27/2014 22:50 -0500

(Lots of details and charts... )

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-27/there-will-be-blood-petrodollar-death-means-liquidity-and-oil-exporting-crisis-deck

[USDollar]

ST Oil bottom is nearer than ever

Start buying

[reaper247]

Permian Basin player LGCY had outstanding earnings AH today.

A record $149M in revenue with a net income of $59M swinging from a net loss of ($15M) last Q.

They went from a loss of ($.33) EPS last quarter to $1.03 EPS this quarter beating estimates of $.13.

Could be one to watch.

IMO and FWIW.

[reaper247]

Hey Pro-Life.

There is a great radio show called Powering America Radio with Thomas Miller.

It's co-hosted with Crude Energy CEO Parker Hallam and Breitling Energy CEO Chris Faulkner. Its a great listen if you have some time. It could be worth your time to check it out.

http://www.breitlingenergy.com/portfolio-item/powering-america-chris-faulkner-oct-27/

I recently reclaimed my mod spot on the Breitling Energy board (OTC: BECC) and would love to sticky a post with a couple of monster Pro-Life charts on $BRENT and $WTIC.

I can only sticky a single post, so it would be great if you could do both in one.

I haven't earned any favors from you, but I am asking for one anyways.

Thanks if you can help.

IMO and FWIW.

[Lowjack]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102122961

[reaper247]

I keep going back to Breitling Energy and the BECC CEO Chris Faulkner.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2793273/Saudi-price-war-fuel-drive-U-S-crude-exports.html

I kinda feel like Faulkner and his co-workers Thomas Miller and Crude Energy CEO Parker Hallam have a good grasp of the situation.

Still watching futures tonight. Crude at $82.14 and its been awhile since I have watched overnight futures.

Thanks for the response.

IMO and FWIW.

[Pro-Life]

Several zones here... P&F tells it better than me:

[reaper247]

$WTIC, Do you think we are near a bottom here or do we move lower?

[reaper247]

LOL Pro-Life,

Don't act so surprised. Its actually not the first time.

Have a great night. Hope you finish the week strong.

BTW, Nice call on the margin call warning the day before a big market drop.

Not many people are able to predict that.

IMO and FWIW.

[Pro-Life]

Wow! in a search on google... Kewl!!!

[reaper247]

$WTIC closed nicely and !WTIC looks like it could be at a bottom.

Was actually looking at OXY tonight since they have recently increased pipeline capacity from the Permian Basin to Cushing, Oklahoma.

Its how your board here ended up in one of my google searches. LOL...

Keep up the great work Pro-Life. I continue to learn from your posts, especially on the ATM board.

[Pro-Life]

The hammer candle today was impressive!!!

[reaper247]

Another nice board Pro-Life.

I just found it tonight.

[Pro-Life]

This development may be a bullish catalyst:

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Aug-24/268306-isis-seizes-control-of-tabqa-last-syrian-army-base-in-northern-raqqa.ashx#axzz3BKrPeO1a

[Pro-Life]

This is THE buy zone again!!!

[urmom]

WTI Crude Weekly Outlook 07/07/14

http://atsfutures.blogspot.com/2014/07/ats-futures-crude-oil-weekly-outlook.html

[Pro-Life]

Bullish price objective is $129 on the P&F chart:

[Pro-Life]

Have not heard... or seen... I got nothing...

[jonJay]

Where are you guys going to get American Petroleum Institute Weekly Statistical Bulletin in the coming weeks? I’ve heard it won’t be available on Bloomberg, and most of the other sources they list on their site come bundled in overpriced subscriptions.
The only one that looked useful is qbeats, the startup that offers it pay-per-view. Anyone hear anything about them?

[Pro-Life]

Bullish price objective on the P&F chart is $129/barrel...

[Pro-Life]

That call was crazy easy... in DC, 4.20/gal for premium is common. And soon to be $5!!!

[Pro-Life]

Higher at the pump is coming!!! $WTIC now higher than in the last 3 months...

[Pro-Life]

2014 Predictions from Some of the Smartest Market Watchers
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/2014-predictions-from-some-of-the-smartest-market-watchers-165002561.html

Gregor Macdonald (TerraJoule):
www.terrajoule.us

Oil will finally begin its next repricing cycle late in 2014. It will begin quietly, and will bring together many of the same factors that led to the previous repricing, which began in 2003. Spare capacity, the cost of the marginal barrel, and the continued decline of the cheap barrel will all confront a new upswing in global demand. The upswing in demand will largely be led by a return to global growth, even as renewables and the powergrid will become the main avenue for global GDP. Oil's next repricing will not be as dramatic in percentage terms. But the road to $150 oil begins in late 2014.

[Pro-Life]

Broke $100 but WAY oversold... could be a bottom nearby.

[urmom]

No EIA Crude Stocks this week.

API report the main focus
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/10/16/api-oil-inventory-report-to-carry-more-weight-amid-u-s-government-shutdown/

[urmom]

For WTI Crude Futures Traders

Signals for crude every morning from 8:30-11:30am EST
http://dailycrudeoiltrader.collective2.com/