Should be interesting as glut continues to mature.
Thanks for the update Tim, have been out of the sector for a few weeks now.
Oil services providers (NYSEARCA:OIH) and drillers are eyed with caution by the J.P. Morgan analyst team, which warns that most of the stocks have put much of their near-term upside behind them.
The TerraJoule.us oil production forecast, as discussed in both the January and February issues, has maintained that supply was less likely to decline in 2015 and more likely to go flat.
Must read to profit.....
$$ oih $$
Note to self, keep this a secret. 36.87 and climbing ...
$$ oih $$$
Just wanted to check this board out for nostalgic purposes. I have to admit that there can't be 10 people on the planet worse than me at daytrading OIH. Both Long and Short. I think part of my problem was having stops that were too tight and also trying to trade it before/after crude inventories. Finally, I wised up and stopped trading it period. Out of curiosity, has anybody had legitimate success trading this intra-day ?
I thought you guys might be interested in checking out this oil and gas stock. The symbol is ENDE. The company is days away from announcing a major increase in production. They have just finished drilling their first horizontal well and sources on the ground believe the production increase is very substantial. Management expected between a 500% and 1200% increase in daily production! We are waiting for the news any day now! The company website is www.endevcoinc.com.
take care and happy new year
Thank you for this board. I'll follow and contribute as much as I can. Limited posts. :)
Crude Oil $59.75 Falls a Third Day on Forecast for Mild U.S. Weather
By Christian Schmollinger and Shigeru Sato
March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a third day on the expectation milder U.S. weather will cut winter fuel demand.
Temperatures in the Northeast, the nation's biggest consumer of heating oil, may rise to normal levels in the week ended March 25, the National Weather Service said yesterday. A cold snap since February has sapped inventories of the fuel by 10 percent, driving crude prices above $60 a barrel.
``The Northern Hemisphere's winter heating oil demand season's over,' said Ken Hasegawa, a manager of the international division at commodity futures broker Himawari CX Inc. in Tokyo. ``From now on, we should closely watch gasoline demand in the U.S. as the main factor.'
Crude oil for April delivery fell as much as 78 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $59.27 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $59.64 at 2:38 p.m. in Singapore.
The contract fell $1.59, or 2.6 percent, to $60.05 on March 9, the biggest decline in four weeks. Oil reached a one-week high of $62.30 a barrel the day before.
Hasegawa said he expects oil futures in New York to trade in a $58.00-$62.50 a barrel range this week.
Demand for oil products in the U.S., the world's largest consumer, fell a second time in the week ended March 2, the Energy Department said last week. Total product demand averaged 21.3 million barrels a day, a five-week low, as deliveries of distillates, including heating oil and diesel, fell 4.5 percent.
Heating use in New York City may be 15 percent below average this week, forecaster Meteorlogix LLC said yesterday.
In London, Brent crude oil for April settlement fell as much as 73 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $60.40 a barrel in electronic trading on the ICE Futures exchange. It was at $60.85 a barrel at 2:41 p.m. Singapore time.
Heating oil for April delivery fell as much as 2.16 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $1.6906 a gallon in after-hours trading and traded at $1.6989 at 2:35 p.m. Singapore time. It fell 2.8 percent to $1.7122 a gallon on March 9, the biggest drop since Feb. 14.
World oil demand usually peaks in the fourth quarter when refiners make heating fuel for the northern hemisphere winter.
``The market has been so dependent on oil demand and heating oil demand particularly,' said Steve Rowles, an analyst with CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``In this volatile market, any slowdown in global demand is going to have a larger impact.'
Oil futures fell to a 20-month low of $49.90 on Jan. 18 after mild weather in the U.S. Northeast cut demand and helped swell stockpiles. Prices rose in five of the past seven weeks as a cold snap boosted heating demand and gasoline demand rose above year-earlier levels.
U.S. gasoline demand rises during the nation's summer vacations between Memorial Day late May and Labor Day early September.
Implied demand rose 0.8 percent to 9.2 million barrels a day in the week ended March 2, the Energy Department said last week. Gasoline consumption rose 0.8 percent. Deliveries from refineries and terminals averaged 9.1 million barrels a day the past four weeks, 3.3 percent more than a year earlier.
While demand appears strong, the weekly data are volatile and may also have been influenced by the unusual weather patterns in the U.S. the past three months, Gorey said.
Gasoline for April delivery fell as much as 3.05 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $1.8716 a gallon and traded at $1.8770 in after- hours trading at 12:30 p.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 1.2 percent to $1.9021 on March 9, after earlier reaching $1.945, the highest price for a contract closest to expiration since Aug. 23.
Oil Prices Climb Above $59 Per Barrel, Led by Heating Fuel Price Gains
NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices jumped more than $1 per barrel Friday, led by gains for heating fuels, in another volatile trading day for crude. Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $1.40 to settle at $59.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after dipping as low as $57.59 earlier in the session.
Helping to push up prices was a U.S. warning that Nigerian militants may be planning to expand their activities beyond the restive southern petroleum-producing regions.
The Lagos-based consulate said possible targets could include expatriate personnel, Western businesses or facilities and locales visited by tourists and foreigners.
Citigroup Futures Research energy analyst Tim Evans said traders were also taking a second look at natural-gas inventory numbers released Thursday, which helped boost heating fuel prices.
Last week's withdrawal of 259 billion cubic feet from underground storage was short of some analysts' expectations, but it was the biggest since 1997, he said.
Natural gas prices rose 21.1 cents to $7.503 per 1,000 cubic feet, and heating oil prices rose 4.63 cents to $1.6734 a gallon, helping to lead up crude prices.
Brent crude rose $1.35 to $58.95 on London's ICE futures exchange.
Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading Corp. said traders also may have been skeptical about forecasts for warmer weather for the U.S. Northeast, the world's largest heating oil market.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it expects above-normal temperatures next week to end a spate of freezing weather in the U.S. Northeast, which accounts for 80 percent of the nation's heating oil demand.
Oil price swings have become the norm recently, as 11 of the prior 16 sessions saw daily moves of more than $1, Cameron Hanover's Peter Beutel wrote in a research report. On Thursday, prices dropped more than $1 before settling down just a penny.
Analysts said the upcoming three-day weekend, with the Nymex closed on President's Day, and the March oil contract's expiring on Tuesday may also have pushed up volatility.
In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 4.81 cents to $1.6453 per gallon.
Oil $60+ surges on winter chill, Iran posturing
By Associated Press | February 9, 2007
NEW YORK -- Oil prices surged $2 a barrel late yesterday, as energy traders rushed back into the market amid frigid temperatures in the United States and political tension overseas.
Earlier in the session, the market had been trading hesitantly, coming off a sharp drop a day earlier and struggling to find direction. Oil prices have been rising over the past two weeks on frigid US weather. They have so far been unable to surpass the $60 mark.
Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $2 to settle at $59.71 a barrel in late trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after peaking at $59.87. It was the highest settlement price since Dec. 29, when crude closed at $61.05.
Factors such as renewed warnings out of Iran, violence in Nigeria, and record cold in the United States kept prices afloat yesterday -- leading traders to believe that $60 a barrel may not be as insurmountable as they thought.
"This is trend-chasing. It's very nervous, short-term, speculative trading. People were guessing that a top was in the market, and now they've been disappointed that prices didn't fall further," said Tim Evans, energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets.
The daily volatility in trading "shows that the market is still solidly in the $56-$60 range," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gurtz in Singapore.
Also yesterday, Iran stepped up its warnings to the United States, which rekindled worries that supplies from the oil producer could be hindered, said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Tehran will strike US interests around the world if his country is attacked.
Oil 57.30 pulls back from four week high of $59 on seasonal demand , growing economy and severe cold thru mid Feb
By Christian Schmollinger
Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed in New York after falling from a four-week high yesterday on signs late- winter heating demand may have limited impact on U.S. fuel supplies.
Oil plunged late yesterday, having risen almost $5 a barrel in three days on signs cold weather and economic growth may increase demand. Crude inventories are 1.2 percent above last year's level and distillate supplies, including heating oil and diesel fuel, are 2.7 percent greater with gasoline levels 2.5 percent higher.
`` The heating season is sort of slowly being taken out of the picture for investors,' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist for CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``The supply situation is ok. I don't see that part of the equation having an impact on prices in the near future.'
Crude oil for March delivery was at $57.36 a barrel, up 6 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:01 p.m. in Singapore.
The contract fell 84 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $57.30 yesterday, having gained 7.6 percent the two previous sessions on reports showing increased fuel demand and economic growth in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer.
Crude oil may rise next week on speculation U.S. fuel consumption will increase because of cold weather and a growing economy.
Twenty-five of 47 analysts, traders and brokers, or 53 percent, said prices will increase, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Fourteen expected a decline and eight forecast little change. Last week, 56 percent of respondents expected futures to rise.
In London, Brent crude oil for March settlement was at $56.85, up 13 cents, in electronic trading on the ICE Futures exchange at 11:58 a.m. Singapore time.
Heating demand in the U.S. Northeast will be 28 percent above normal through Feb. 8, forecaster Weather Derivatives said. Temperatures may remain below normal through Feb. 15, the National Weather Service said yesterday. The region accounts for about 80 percent of the nation's heating oil use.
The cold weather ``will continue to be a factor underpinning the price of crude,' said CFC Seymour's Kowalczyk. ``The one unknown is how long the U.S. will have temperatures below historical averages.'
January was the peak month for U.S. deliveries of distillates, including heating oil and diesel, in three of the past five years, according to Energy Department data.
U.S. distillate stockpiles fell for the first week in seven, leaving inventories at 140 million barrels on Jan. 26, 9.1 percent above the five-year average for the period last week. Oil stockpiles held 324.9 million barrels, 10 percent above average, the department said.
As prices near the $60 a barrel level, oil should fall as supply is growing faster than demand this year, said Kowalczyk. Crude at $50 finds support because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will work to keep it higher and developing some new fields becomes uneconomical at that level.
``If we're close to $60, I'd say sell and if we're close to $50 I'd say buy,' said Kowalczyk.
Oil may rise today following a stronger than expected report on the U.S. unemployment figures that will support an outlook for better global economic growth. Oil rose 2.1 percent on Jan. 31 following an announcement that the U.S. economy grew 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006.
OPEC, which produces 40 percent of global oil, began a 500,000 barrel a day production cut yesterday. The reduction raises the total amount of oil taken out of the market to 1.7 million barrels since Nov. 1.
The group's output was 385,000 barrels a day higher than its targets in December. Venezuela and Nigeria produced a combined 220,000 barrels over the mark.
To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at firstname.lastname@example.org
Barron's "Cover Story": ConocoPhillips (COP $73) may be too cheap to ignore on an absolute basis and relative to its peer group. That appears to be an emerging consensus among sector analysts. Conoco, which closed Friday at $72.77, currently trades at less than 8x projected 2007 EPS of $9.40, while ExxonMobil (XOM) trades at about 12x EPS. Further, in addition to solid operational characteristics, COP has been telling Wall Street that it will exercise restraint with acquisitions and put more emphasis on share repurchases, and others also see a 10% dividend increase, moving forward, as well...
NFX $48: Newfield Exploration shares are cheap around $48-Barron's
Barron's believes Wall Street is not giving Newfield Exploration (NFX) much credit for its diversification efforts away from the Gulf of Mexico and toward onshore wells and other sites "just about everywhere on earth." The company's best prospects are believed to be in the mid-continental U.S., where finds in Oklahoma's gas-rich Woodford Shale should drive Newfield's overall production by 20% to 25% in the coming year.
However, Barron's points out that the stock trades for just 9.7 times estimated 2007 earnings of $5.01 a share, 20% below its long-term average of 12, and below those of its larger peers EOG Resources (EOG) and XTO Energy (XTO). Bill Gerlach, lead manager at Gartmore Natural Resources Fund, says the stock’s relative valuation "is exciting, given the market's perception that it's primarily an offshore-exploration play, when in fact its onshore development -- particularly the Woodford Shale -- will substantially eclipse that over the next couple of years.
Oil climbs above $US63 on OPEC cut
Posted at 6:10pm on 16 Dec 2006
Oil prices climbed above $US63 a barrel on Friday as dense fog delayed crude shipments to refineries along the US Gulf Coast a day after OPEC agreed to cut output for a second time in two months.
US crude rose 92 US cents to $US63.43 a barrel, the highest settlement in two weeks. London Brent crude was up 60c at $US63.49.
Dozens of ships have been delayed since Thursday by a thick fog blanketing the Houston Ship Channel and other parts of the Gulf Coast, cutting the region's many oil refineries off from fresh crude supplies.
Forecasts predicted the fog would linger on and off for five days and oil companies warned that a prolonged disruption to shipments could force them to reduce fuel output.
The shipping disruptions came a day after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to cut supply by 500,000 barrels per day, or 2%, effective February 1. That follows a cut of 1.2 million bpd agreed from November 1.
On Thursday, US crude rose more than $US1 a barrel after the decision to cut output by OPEC, which is the source of more than a third of the world's oil.
Ample inventories and mild weather across much of the United States, the world's top oil consumer, limited the rally.
Heating demand lower
Heating demand will average much below normal in the US northeast in the next five days, private forecaster DTN Meteorlogix said. The six- to 10-day forecast for the region was for temperatures to be mostly above normal, DTN said.
OPEC has continued to pump about 1m bpd above its current output target in December, Geneva-based consultant Petrologistics said on Friday.
Excluding Iraq, which is not part of OPEC deals to limit supply, OPEC output was expected to average 27.3m bpd in December, steady from November, according to Petrologistics.
Crude oil stocks in the United States, the world's top oil consumer, fell 4.3m barrels last week. They still stood at their highest level since 1998 for this time of year.
US crude oil has hovered around $US60 a barrel for the past three months as OPEC's first cut helped arrest a 25% slide from a record high of $US78.40 a barrel in July.
Also supporting prices on Friday was a fresh attack on the oil industry in Nigeria, the world's eighth-largest exporter. Gunmen invaded an oil field control station operated by Royal Dutch Shell in Nigeria's Bayelsa state and were holding several people hostage, a company spokesman said.
Oil $60.84 Declines as Warmer Weather Moves Into the U.S. Northeast
By Robert Tuttle
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to a two-week low as warm U.S. weather is forecast to reduce heating-fuel demand over most of the next month.
Temperatures in the Northeast, where 80 percent of U.S. heating oil is burned, will probably be above average through Dec. 25, according to National Weather Service forecasts. The temperature in New York will average 58 degrees Fahrenheit (14 degrees Celsius) on Dec. 20, 21 degrees above normal, according to forecaster MDA Federal Inc.'s Earthsat Energy Weather.
Several weather forecasts show ``no real break in the sustained moderated temperatures; it's helping push the market down,'' said John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at Fimat USA in New York. Today's move is ``a continuation of the overall downward trend we have been in.''
Crude oil for January delivery fell 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $61.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since Nov. 28. Today's fall was the third straight daily decline.
Brent crude oil fell 32 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $61.52 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London. It was the seventh straight daily drop, the longest series of declines for Brent since November 2005.
Oil also fell after Edmund Daukoru, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries president, said the group has not reached a consensus on a decision to reduce output for a second time this year at its meeting later this week.
``We need to take a very, very critical look'' at inventories, Daukoru said today in Abuja, Nigeria, where the group is expected to meet on Dec. 14. ``We always arrive at a consensus based on the fact that we have an open mind regardless of what is said before the meeting.''
Daukoru, who is also Nigeria's oil minister, earlier said ``general support'' exists among members for a reduction.
OPEC members Iran and Venezuela have called for further cuts, while Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates today said they're concerned about an oversupply of oil, without yet demanding reductions. Libya's top OPEC official said there's no need to reduce supply again.
``Another production cut is waiting in the wings here, but not for right now,'' Kilduff said. ``They are going to let this one ride because it's December and it's the peak demand season.
OPEC said in October it would curtail output by 1.2 million barrels a day starting in November. A Bloomberg News survey showed the group trimmed output by 550,000 barrels a day.
Northeast heating demand will average 31 percent below normal over the next seven days, according to forecaster Weather Derivatives in Belton, Missouri.
``At least through the 26th, it still looks to be milder than normal across much of the eastern third of the U.S.,'' said Jason Nicholls, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. ``After Christmas, it looks like there might be one or two cold shots but I don't think it stays permanently cold.''
Crude oil accounts for about 60 percent of the retail price of heating oil. Heating-oil futures fell 0.19 cent to $1.7224 a gallon in New York.
Crude oil has fallen about 3.3 percent this month as analysts and traders said they expect U.S. fuel inventories to meet demand for heating amid signs of mild weather.
The U.S. Energy Department is scheduled to release a report on last week's petroleum inventories tomorrow at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.
U.S. supplies of distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, probably declined 250,000 barrels last week, based on the median estimate from the Bloomberg News survey of 15 analysts. Stockpiles held 132.4 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 1, 0.9 percent more than the five-year average for the period.
Crude oil inventories probably fell 1.3 million barrels, based on the survey. Stockpiles held 339.7 million barrels on Dec. 1, 14 percent above the five-year average.
Oil prices fall below $62 a barrel
© 2006 The Associated Press
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SINGAPORE — Oil prices fell in sluggish Asian trading Monday amid mixed expectations for OPEC's meeting later this week. Forecasts for milder winter weather in the U.S. also depressed prices.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery dropped 31 cents to $61.32 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, midafternoon in Singapore. The contract on Friday fell by 46 cents to settle at $62.03 a barrel.
January Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange slipped 20 cents to $62 a barrel.
Heating oil futures fell 1.13 cents to $1.7460 a gallon while unleaded gasoline prices declined 0.13 cent to $1.6200 a gallon. Natural gas prices dropped 17.2 cents to $7.389 per 1,000 cubic feet.
The market is somewhat uncertain what to expect from Thursday's meeting of the 11-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Some OPEC officials have been pressing in recent days for a cut in output on top of a production cut of 1.2 million barrels a day, approved in October, while others have indicated that with prices above $60 a barrel, the cartel was likely to refrain from cutting output at the meeting.
Some Saudi officials have expressed satisfaction with current price levels, but Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said recently that he was concerned about excessively high oil inventories in major consuming nations.
Recent data from the International Energy Agency showed stocks held among the 30 members of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development at the end of September at 2.76 billion barrels, the highest level in almost eight years and 4.5 percent higher than a year ago.
Expectations of milder temperatures in the United States also weighed on prices. Temperatures in the Northeast, the nation's largest heating oil market, were expected to moderate this week, with above-normal temperatures through most of the nation, according to the National Weather Service.
Biofuel can cause crude oil slump to $40 in ’07: expertPublished: Thursday, 7 December, 2006, 12:03 PM Doha Time
TOKYO: Crude oil prices in New York may tumble to $40 a barrel next year as demand for biofuel made from crops spurs investors to switch from energy to agricultural commodities, said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Japan’s Mitsui Bussan Futures Ltd.
Shifting to biodiesel and ethanol additives may slow the growth of demand for gasoline and diesel in the US, Europe, and Japan, Emori said in an interview on Monday.
Emori predicted oil would rise to $96 a barrel in August this year because of the hurricanes in the US Gulf. Prices fell from a peak of $78.40 on July 14 after a calmer-than-usual storm season.
“Some people may say the 2006 oil bubble eventually was short-lived like a firework that sparks and disappears,’’ Emori, 40, said. “People called me crazy when I projected a couple of years ago oil to surge this year. They may do that again because I said oil may touch the $40 a barrel mark next year.’’
Oil consumers are increasing use of fuels and additives that derive from corn, soybean, sugar cane, and oilseed, as they try to reduce pollution. The switch may cause a shift of money from oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange to the grain futures market in Chicago, Emori said in Tokyo.
Biofuels may account for 7% of global transportation energy by 2030, provided governments implement International Energy Agency policies to promote alternatives to oil, the Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming nations said in its World Energy Outlook 2006 report.
Oil prices in New York have dropped 20% from the record set in July and traded at $62.71 a barrel at 4.47pm in Tokyo.
“Biofuels may be an epoch of great change for oil, possibly ending the spike in prices of crude we’ve seen in the past few years, and attract pension and commodity fund managers to pour more money into grains,’’ Emori said. “A record of $78.40 a barrel set on July 14 may eventually be the peak of oil in the years through the end of 2010.’’
Biofuels include gasoline blended with ethanol that’s made from sugar cane or grain and diesel mixed with vegetable oils. Prices for corn, used to make ethanol, have risen 47% in Chicago this year. Oil has gained 2.4%.
Crude oil will average $62 a barrel next year and $61 in 2008 in New York, according to the median forecast of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Shinzo Abe’s government, an IEA member country, plans to increase consumption of biofuel for transportation to 500,000 kiloliters (3.15mn barrels) by the end of 2010 as part of efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and meet targets set under the Kyoto Protocol. Japan currently doesn’t use biofuel.
Starting in April 2010, Nippon Oil Corp and other Japanese refiners aim to supply about 12mn kiloliters of ethanol-blended gasoline, about 20% of the country’s total consumption, the Petroleum Association of Japan said in a statement in April. – Bloomberg