Oil & Gas Charts

[MWM]

Negative OIL!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/one-corner-of-u-s-oil-market-has-already-seen-negative-prices

[MWM]

SDOC might be an easy double here imo...

Wish i had noticed first thing this morning at .02!

[girlfriend]

Thanks. Have to be careful about these whether or not you think they can remain afloat if ng stays at or around $2. Warmer than expected temps so far no significant draws yet. Storage overflowing.

UPL….has nice properties worth a gamble if you think ng will recover some in 2016. Not sure they can survive after 2016.

If you held a gun to my pretty head and forced me to buy a ng stock right now other than a major or something like an EOG which we know will do okay…..I would have to pick SWN. If you are looking for more risk ……and a company with huge assets and enough revolvers to survive including add debt I would pick CHK. CHK is also a takeover candidate plus the huge short position in there might unravel some day.

Just guessing I am staying away from ng companies at this time.

My opinions...

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Pain!

Link back!

[Screech691]

LXRP bottom reversal chart

[Screech691]

LXRP big Oil news out this morning!

Excellent Results at New Lexaria Oil Well

Sep 16, 2014 (Newsfile Corp via COMTEX) -- Lexaria Corp. (OTCQB: LXRP) (CSE: LXX) (the "Company" or "Lexaria") is very pleased to report excellent oil production rates at the new PPF-12-7 oil well at Belmont Lake, Mississippi. The well is now flowing and selling oil.

As of Friday September 12, the well was producing approx 120 bo/d on a 12/64th choke. For Sept 13 it produced 119 bo/d on an 11/64th choke; and on Sept 14 it produced 119 bo/d on a 10/64th choke. No formation water has been produced. Flowing pressures increased each day as choke sizes were reduced, indicating healthy reservoir pressures. This is one of the highest flow rates ever for a Belmont Lake well, and more than meets Lexaria's expectations. The 12-7 well is located further east than any other existing well in Belmont Lake field, further expanding the producing boundaries of the field which are still undetermined.

The operator and owners intend to restrict this well to 90 bo/d for the intermediate term on an even more restricted choke, and to monitor the well over time to optimize production in the short and long terms. This allows for more prudent operation of the well and field over time, as many Frio-formation wells can produce oil for as long as 10 or 15 years.

Although earlier sidewall core analysis indicated 19-20 feet (true vertical depth) of oil bearing pay, only the upper 8 feet of the well was perforated in order to stay above the oil/water contact zone.

"Taken within the context of this conservative perforation technique and the restriction from the small choke size, I view the oil production rates from this well as even more positive," said Chris Bunka, President.

Lexaria congratulates its operator and co-owners of the 12-7 well as the Belmont Lake oil field continues to provide positive results.

Additional information, including longer term performance, will be released when available. Griffin & Griffin Exploration, LLC is the operator of the well which was drilled in Section 41, Township 2 North - Range 4 West of Wilkinson Country, Mississippi.

Lexaria retains a 42% working interest in the producing 12-1 and 12-3 wells; a 50% working interest in the suspended 12-4 and 12-5 wells; and a 13.3% working interest in the 12-7 well. Lexaria is actively reviewing all possible ways of maximizing value from the Belmont Lake oil field assets.

About Lexaria

Lexaria's shares are quoted in the USA with symbol LXRP and in Canada with symbol LXX. The company searches for projects that could provide potential above-market returns.

To learn more about Lexaria Corp. visit www.lexariaenergy.com.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT: Lexaria Corp. Chris Bunka Chairman & CEO [phone]

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

This release includes forward-looking statements. Statements which are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. The Company makes forward-looking public statements concerning its expected future financial position, results of operations, cash flows, financing plans, business strategy, products and services, competitive positions, growth opportunities, plans and objectives of management for future operations, including statements that include words such as "anticipate," "if," "believe," "plan," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "could," "should," "will," and other similar expressions are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are estimates reflecting the Company's best judgment based upon current information and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, and there can be no assurance that other factors will not affect the accuracy of such forward-looking statements. It is impossible to identify all such factors but they include and are not limited to the existence of underground deposits of commercial quantities of oil and gas; cessation or delays in exploration because of mechanical, weather, operating, financial or other problems; capital expenditures that are higher than anticipated; or exploration opportunities being fewer than currently anticipated. There can be no assurance that road or site conditions will be favorable for field work; no assurance that well treatments or workovers will have any effect on oil or gas production; no assurance that oil field interconnections will have any measurable impact on oil or gas production or on field operations, and no assurance that any expected new well(s) will be drilled or have any impact on the Company. There can be no assurance that expected oil and gas production will actually materialize; and thus no assurance that expected revenue will actually occur. There is no assurance the Company will have sufficient funds to drill additional wells, or to complete acquisitions or other business transactions. Such forward looking statements also include estimated cash flows, revenue and current and/or future rates of production of oil and natural gas, which can and will fluctuate for a variety of reasons; oil and gas reserve quantities produced by third parties; and intentions to participate in future exploration drilling. Adverse weather conditions including but not limited to surface flooding can delay operations, impact production, and cause reductions in revenue. The Company may not have sufficient expertise to thoroughly exploit its oil and gas properties. The Company may not have sufficient funding to thoroughly explore, drill or develop its properties. Access to capital, or lack thereof, is a major risk and there is no assurance that the Company will be able to raise required working capital. Current oil and gas production rates may not be sustainable and targeted production rates may not occur. Factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimated by the Company include, but are not limited to, government regulation, managing and maintaining growth, the effect of adverse publicity, litigation, competition and other factors which may be identified from time to time in the Company's public announcements and filings. There is no assurance that the completion of the 12-7 well or the new production facility will continue to produce commercial quantities of oil.

The CNSX has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

copyright (c) newsfile corp. 2014. all rights reserved.

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OEDV one to watch...

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Oil on the Move!

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RVDO WOW~!

[swanlinbar]

RDX RGDEF Gives Fiscal 2015 Guidance
Date : 03/04/2014 @ 2:49PM
Source : PR Newswire (Canada)
Stock : Rdx Technologies Corp (QX) (RGDEF)
Quote : 0.4188 0.0728 (21.04%) @ 5:00PM
RDX Gives Fiscal 2015 Guidance
Print
Alert
RDX Technologies Corp (USOTC:RGDEF)
Intraday Stock Chart
Today : Wednesday 5 March 2014

Click Here for more RDX Technologies Corp Charts.
2015 EPS Range of $ 0.08 to $ 0.12

SCOTTSDALE, AZ, March 4, 2014 /CNW/ - RDX TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION ("RDX" or the "Company") (TSXV: RDX, OTCQX: RGDEF, FSE: RL7) an energy and water treatment technology company, today announced financial guidance for fiscal 2015 which ends March 31st, 2015.

The Company recently posted its Company presentations from the Toronto Subscribers Investor Summit and its fiscal 2015 Financial Guidance to the Company's website.

The Company estimates and gives guidance that franchise sales to own and operate the Company's water treatment equipment systems are estimated at 40 total units through fiscal 2015. Revenue is estimated at $56 million dollars. Five units were sold in fiscal 2014 representing about $ 9.1 million dollars.

The Company estimates that revenues from our energy, water, and equipment sales and rentals segments will approximate $29 to $51 million dollars for fiscal 2015.

The Company estimates that total revenues from all segments will approximate $85 to $107 million dollars for fiscal 2015.

The Company is giving guidance that the EBITDA will be in the range of $19 to $26 million dollars in fiscal 2015 and earnings per share are estimated in the range of $ 0.08 to $ 0.12 per share.

Dennis M. Danzik, Chief Executive Officer of RDX, stated, "Our employees continue to deliver exceptional customer value and are highly focused on the execution of our business plan. In addition our franchise and owner operator opportunities are attracting exceptional candidates in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Our backlog of interested applicants for franchise and owner operator facilities now exceeds 50 units."

Danzik added "In anticipation of our continued growth, RDX will open additional sales offices in multiple geographic locations, including internationally, targeting energy customers, franchise sales, and water treatment opportunities. Shortly, we will be launching a new marketing campaign to inform the public about our Company and its products and services. This month RDX will be featured in a Forbes advertising section for Platts, and it will mark our first national advertising efforts with a full page ad that highlights and emphasizes our energy program for diesel fuel users in the United States and Canada. We are planning additional programs in the future; including major energy and water conference attendance, in the U.S., Canada and Europe."

About RDX Technologies Corporation

RDX Technologies Corporation is an energy and water treatment technology company. The Company is applying proprietary technology to refine liquid fuels from materials mined from waste water generated from industrial and commercial sources. These markets include a wide variety of clients across a broad spectrum of industries. The Company trades on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol "RDX", the OTCQX as "RGDEF" and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange as "RL7".

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS

"Dennis M. Danzik"

Dennis M. Danzik, CEO

[e-mail]

"Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is

[MWM]

HPGS could be Big News! See Today's 8K, Acquired these guys!

http://trib.com/business/energy/bankupt-methane-farmers-propose-way-out-of-bind-on-wyoming/article_7c0ef1c9-04c7-56ed-a8a0-c6893e0c9dcd.html

[Dina]

Please request the chart for RVDO: http://stockcharts.com/support/symbolrequest.html

[MWM]

RVDO nice Pop!

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These heavy Nat Gas names should be doing better, link back for charts...

[swanlinbar]

ATXDF-The Next Great Investment Idea: AusTex Oil Is Trading At 1/3 Of Proved Reserve Value, Growing 300% Per Year Editor's notes: This underfollowed O&G company is trading at extremely cheap valuation metrics. ATXDY could turn out to be a multi-bagger.
Top Ideas are our best money-making long and short investment ideas.
They are released exclusively to Seeking Alpha PRO users 24 hours before publication.
Learn more about Seeking Alpha PRO.
Disclosure: I am long ATXDY, GST, . (More...)

I have written two "Top Idea" articles for Seeking Alpha so far. One was about Gastar Exploration (GST), which I suggested was substantially undervalued at $2.60 per share in June of 2013. Subsequently, the stock more than doubled, to a high of almost $7. And the other was in September 2013 about Synergy Resources (SYRG), which I suggested was substantially overvalued at $9.90 per share, and subsequently has traded down to $8.41.

Here is a chart of Gastar versus the S&P since that article (I also included the oil and gas equities index (XOP), which has closely tracked the S&P:

(click to enlarge)

And here is a chart of Synergy versus the S&P since that article (I also included the oil and gas equities index, which has closely tracked the S&P:

(click to enlarge)

I have written other articles about other investments I own or am short, and occasionally about investment ideas that I haven't acted upon. Some of these ideas have worked out well and some haven't. But I've never written an article about a stock that I've bought as much of as the stock I will discuss below. I think it is more compelling here than Gastar was at $2.60 in June 2013.

Here's why I've made it such a large position and have such high conviction:

It is trading at 1/3 of its proved reserve value, with multiple independent engineering firms having weighed in and a sophisticated private equity investor having recently invested over $20 million of his personal money into the company after extensive due diligence. Most public E&P companies trade at a premium to their proved reserve value. Synergy is trading at something like 7x its proved reserve value and Gastar is currently at 1.5x its proved reserve value. This stock is trading at 1/3 of its proved reserve value, meaning it could triple just by trading to its proved reserve value, even if no additional reserves were added.

It is growing production 300% in 2014, after growing production by 500% over the past two years. High production growth tends to lead to high valuation multiples - just look at Synergy. Synergy is trading for ~$300,000 per barrel of oil equivalent produced per day (boepd), due to a similar rate of production growth. This stock is trading for under $100,000 per boepd. So if it traded to Synergy's production multiple at the end of 2014, it would be at 9x its current price.

And of course, capital efficiency and corporate governance are extremely important, particularly with undervalued, smaller public companies. In this case, from a governance perspective, a leading private equity industry veteran owns ~30% of the company and has taken 3 out of the 7 board seats. He had his brother, who has over 10 years of experience at such reputable firms as TPG (Texas Pacific Group, one of the largest and most impressive private equity firms in the world), recently appointed to the board of directors.

And from a capital efficiency perspective, an investment bank recently did a study of North American oil resource plays, and this company's field was in the top decile of capital efficiency and IRR. Highly capital efficient stocks are awarded high multiples in the stock market - see Synergy, for example.

Of course, every investment thesis should address why the stock is cheap. In this case, it is primarily listed in a foreign market which has been highly volatile and highly exposed to mining stocks, which have traded down substantially. Numerous local natural resource investment funds owned the stock and have been trading out, depressing the price. And the previous largest shareholder was a small private fund which may be in the process of winding down the entity which held the stock. So essentially, the mispricing appears to be related to the shareholder base; this is in the process of being resolved as production skyrockets.

Having addressed my "top idea" history on Seeking Alpha and the high level investment thesis for this company, I will now tell you the name: AusTex Oil (OTCQX:ATXDY). With ATXDY at $7.00 per share, it has a fully diluted market cap of just over $100 million (and an enterprise value closer to ~$75 million). It is currently producing over 1,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (over 70% oil).

AusTex's main field is in Kay County, Oklahoma. A map can be seen here:

(click to enlarge)

You'll notice that AusTex's acreage is located in the middle of Range Resource's (RRC) "focus area" in the Mississippi Lime play. AusTex actually participated as a "non-op" in two Range horizontal oil wells, one of which was one of the best wells in the entire play drilled by any operator (link), it IP'd at 1,363 BOEPD and "paid out" (repaid its drilling costs) within a few months.

AusTex's main asset, the Snake River field highlighted in that map, is on the edge of a highly successful vertical field drilled by Range and on the edge of Range's horizontal Mississippian development program. As Range disclosed here (link), "Range has tested new completions using larger frac stimulations on its Mississippian Chat acreage along the Nemaha Ridge. In addition to the four wells mentioned in the third quarter, an additional two wells utilizing the larger frac design have been turned to sales over the past two months. Results from these six wells continue to significantly exceed results seen from wells drilled in the early part of 2013. The average 30-day production rate for all six wells was 578 (443 net) boe per day with 74% liquids." The important takeaway is that, with 30 day IP rates of almost 600 BOEPD and a very high (74%) liquids cut, Range is seeing highly economic horizontal wells on land adjacent to AusTex's Snake River field.

Here is a map from Range's recent presentation highlighting Kay County (where Snake River is located) as the most productive area for vertical development of the Mississippian:

(click to enlarge)

AusTex already has almost 30 highly productive well results in the area, but it is beneficial to see data from a larger, better known operator like Range. Below is Range's estimated horizontal well economics, which are promising for AusTex if it chooses to engage in horizontal development in the future. And it is beneficial to AusTex's potential liquidation value, as a potential buyer would likely be interested in exploring horizontal development (and having Range drilling adjacent wells claiming 90-140% IRRs certainly doesn't hurt).

(click to enlarge)

Another consideration for an investment in AusTex is that the comparisons regarding valuation compared to proved reserves above do not factor in reserve additions. Below is a slide from an old AusTex presentation, before its most recent reserve report (which bumped its proved PV-10 from $200 million up to $250 million). It illustrates AusTex's success in building proved reserves through drilling activity. As AusTex further ramps up production, it seems reasonable to expect proved reserves to continue to build.

(click to enlarge)

In summary, AusTex is a substantially larger position for me than the other two "Top Ideas" I published on Seeking Alpha, both of which substantially outperformed the market since their publication. It trades at a large discount to its proved reserve value, which is growing. And it trades at a discount to comparable companies on a production valuation basis, and its production is growing rapidly, which may drive revaluation of the stock. And its main asset is located with the core of Range's mid-continent play, in an area where Range sees exceptionally high rates of return and has successfully drilled hundreds of vertical wells.

Additional disclosure: I am long ATXDY and GST and may buy or sell any securities mentioned without further notice

This is a Top Idea
Top Ideas are our best money-making long and short investment ideas.
They are released exclusively to Seeking Alpha PRO users 24 hours before publication.
Learn more about Seeking Alpha PRO.

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DBRM Steady!

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TGRO nice move...

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DBRM looking very strong!

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OEDV MILL SARA nice moves in all...

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DBRM nice move...

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POLR nice Pump!

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How the US Oil, Gas Boom Could Rattle Global Order

A dramatic shift in how energy is being produced and consumed around the world could lead to far-reaching changes in the geopolitical order.

Full Story:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100606163

------------------------------------------------

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OPEC: U.S. Shale Oil to Cut Into Demand
Updated March 12, 2013, 1:20 p.m. ET
By SARAH KENT

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast of demand for its oil this year, citing growing production from U.S. shale deposits.

If the scaled-back forecast proves correct, OPEC could be on track to have its lowest share of the global oil market in more than 10 years. OPEC's move comes as industry experts increasingly question whether the producers' group, which has had a decisive influence on the oil market since the 1970s, can maintain its position amid a boom in U.S. oil production resulting from shale- rock drilling technology.


Reuters
OPEC members said 2013 demand for their crude will be lower than previously forecast as output in non-member countries, particularly North American shale oil, ramps up. Here, roughnecks add a pipe extension to drill deeper into the Bakken formation near Oungre, Saskatchewan, in June 2012.
Senior figures in OPEC initially played down the threat of the shale-oil boom, but in its most recent market report, published Tuesday, OPEC said expected increases in North American oil production would trim another 100,000 barrels a day from the forecast demand for its crude this year, putting it 350,000 barrels a day below its level in 2012.

According to calculations by The Wall Street Journal based on historical data and the current forecasts from OPEC, if the group only pumps enough to satisfy demand for its crude this year, it would be supplying 33.1% of expected overall oil demand this year, down from 35% in 2012 and the lowest level in 11 years.

Demand for OPEC's own oil is now expected to fall to 29.7 million barrels a day in 2013, compared with 30.1 million barrels a day in 2012, the group said.

OPEC production sometimes exceeds demand for its crude, implying that some of the oil it sells is put into storage rather than consumed.

In 2013, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 1 million barrels a day in total, OPEC said. This is due mainly to growing production in the U.S., which is forecast to hit its highest level since 1985, it said.

Rising U.S. oil production is expected to continue pressuring OPEC. A study by the International Energy Agency in October forecast that by 2020 U.S. oil output could overtake that of OPEC's kingpin, Saudi Arabia, forcing the producer group to shift its trading patterns.

Africa's largest OPEC member, Nigeria, has already seen its oil exports to the U.S. almost halve between 2011 and 2012, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The producers' group said shale-oil production faces many challenges if it is to meet its forecasts, such as the high rates of decline in production associated with the type of wells being drilled. "The risks associated with the U.S. supply forecast remain high and careful follow-up of current production data is required in order to re-evaluate the projections as the year progresses," it said.

Carsten Fritsch, senior commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, CBK.XE -3.12% said signs of stronger oil consumption could help OPEC by lifting forecast demand for its oil. "Most indicators for this spring indicate oil demand picking up," Mr. Fritsch said.

[MWM]

How Do You Invest in Fast-Growing Chinese Oil Companies? Carefully.

By Craig Mellow Mar 07, 2013 1:35 pm
Each Chinese oil major has its own problems, but they all share extraordinary growth potential.

China’s economy may be knocking and pinging a bit as an engine for global growth, but its three big state-owned oil companies are just hitting their stride. Consider these headlines from just the past week or two:

China National Offshore Oil Corporation, or CNOOC (NYSE:CEO), closed its $15.1 billion acquisition of Canada’s Nexen (TSE:NXY), the biggest foreign corporate purchase in Chinese history. China National Petroleum Corporation, better known as PetroChina (NYSE:PTR), was reported in talks to acquire a big slice of a $50 billion elephant oil field in Iraq called West Qurna-1. PetroChina is predicted to either supplant or partner with Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), which has run afoul of Baghdad authorities because it is dealing simultaneously with the autonomous government of Iraqi Kurdistan.

Meanwhile China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., aka Sinopec (NYSE:SNP), made a path-breaking move into US shale gas, paying Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) $1 billion for a share in an Oklahoma field that overextended Chesapeake cannot afford to develop on its own.

There should be plenty more acquisitions to come. China’s three sisters are sitting on $40 billion in cash and presumably unlimited soft financing from state banks back home. Each has made clear that its global ambitions are far from slaked. The market has been treating them like rising stars lately. PetroChina and Sinopec shares have easily outpaced even a red-hot S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) over the past six months, and all three have left the oil industry gold standard, Exxon, in the dust.

Yet investors should think carefully before piling on. Foreign rivals and politicians like to squeal about the unfair balance sheet advantage the Chinese Big Three enjoy thanks to their majority shareholder, the government. But being state property also exacts tremendous costs: Communist planners force the oil companies to sell fuel and natural gas at a loss so consumers can drive and keep warm more cheaply. And the management skills nurtured in these demi-bureaucracies may not be up to the challenge of playing on the world stage.

At least it will help to understand the background of each company and where it fits into Beijing’s grand economic scheme. PetroChina is the original national champion. Its daily production of about 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent is second only to Exxon among the world’s listed companies. That output has risen by a quarter since 2006 while Western supermajors struggle to stay in place. Not surprisingly, PetroChina is priced like a growth stock with a trailing p/e of 12.9, compared to Exxon’s 11.3 and 8.0 for Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A).

But PetroChina has two heavily bleeding wounds in its domestic refining division and growing gas import business, both of which are mandated to lose money. Management at the company seems a bit slipshod as well. PetroChina reported losing 23 billion renminbi ($3.68 billion) on refining in the first half of 2012. Sinopec, which processes more oil, lost a mere 18.5 billion, indicating much greater efficiency.

Sinopec was born to lose, as it were, being set up as China’s dominant refining company. To make matters worse (financially), the government is forcing it to raise sulfur emissions standards to European standards to combat Chinese cities’ pestilential smog. That will cost Sinopec an estimated $4.5 billion over the next few years.

But the company has fought back since 2011 under dynamic CEO Fu Chengyu, piling up profitable foreign assets to offset its forced domestic franchise. Sinopec’s shares are the best performers in Chinese oil over the past three years, doubling the gains of PetroChina and outpacing Exxon as well.

CNOOC was created by the Chinese state in the 1980s as an offshore drilling specialist. It is blessed, in Chinese terms, to have few downstream assets, but diminishing reserves on its native shelf have led it abroad in search of growth. CNOOC’s bid to acquire American oil company Unocal in 2005 was famously undone by political fury within the US.

The Chinese company made a new overseas breakthrough with the Nexen deal in Canada, but paid a fat price – a 60% premium over the target’s market value. CNOOC’s management also tacitly admitted it was not up to running a Western subsidiary as it quietly ceded operational autonomy to Nexen just before the transaction closed on Feb. 25. Perhaps all of that is provoking buyer’s remorse in the market: CNOOC’s shares have sunk by 16% this year.

So each Chinese oil major has its own problems, but they all share extraordinary growth potential. The Nexen and Chesapeake deals have broken a barrier to expansion in North America. They already have a leg up in much of the rest of the world, arriving without the political or environmental baggage of Western competitors. Production growth is not necessarily destiny in the oil business. But it will always make a company worth a look.

[MWM]

Oil and gas record debt issuance to continue in 2013
December 06, 2012|Reuters

By Danielle Robinson and Joy Ferguson

NEW YORK, Dec 6 (IFR) - Oil and gas companies have issued
record levels of debt in the US investment-grade and high-yield
bond markets this year and are likely to do so again in 2013 as
high oil prices prompt more

Shell International Finance, Russia's Rosneft and Chevron
Corp raised a combined US$8.75bn in the investment-grade
market last week, taking year-to-date oil and gas issuance in
the high-grade senior unsecured market to US$84bn, according to
Thomson Reuters data.

That's a 26% increase from 2011 and eclipses the record of
US$77.6bn set in 2009, when plunging oil prices following the
financial crisis forced oil and gas companies to raise debt to
boost liquidity.

Sub-investment grade companies in the sector have also been
on a debt spree, raising US$48bn in the junk bond market
year-to-date. That compares with last year's US$33.4bn, a record
at the time. The number of high-yield oil and gas companies
accessing the market surged to 91 from 79.

"Major oil companies are funding a lot of new projects, with
oil prices substantially higher this year, and those projects
also make more sense with low interest rates," said a senior
credit strategist at one of the major bond houses in the US.

Oil and gas companies are always among the most active
issuers of bonds in the US, given their large capital
expenditure needs. But this year capex was even more stretched,
as they worked to address rising prices.

Oil and gas companies also joined the rest of the corporate
world in racing to take advantage of low interest rates to term
out debt, as well as to fund new projects made more economic by
the lower funding costs.

In the past month alone, five of the six lowest 10-year
coupons on energy company debt were recorded, by Chevron, Shell,
BP, National Oilwell Varco and ConocoPhillips.

Brazil's Petrobras raised US$7bn in one hit and
refiner Phillips66 raised US$5.8bn to capitalize itself
after being spun off from ConocoPhillips.

Despite the deluge, energy spreads have tightened with
everything else in the US bond markets. And though many single A
and higher rated oil and gas companies are trading at extremely
tight spreads, they are still attracting money flowing out of
Treasuries and into corporate bonds.

"Some of these single A oil and gas companies are almost
viewed as a Treasury substitute by insurance companies, who have
to put their money to work," said James Lee, senior analyst at
Calvert Investments.

"Conoco's recent deal was a blowout, even though it came at
very tight spreads. But investors know Conoco has an operating
history of more than 50 years, it's very liquid and it's not
going out of business any time soon, so they will happily pile
into its 10-year tranche at 80bp over."

As tight as spreads might be, some nuggets can still be
found in the oil and gas bond sector, even among the
highest-rated names.

David Schivell, energy credit analyst at Morningstar, named
National Oilwell Varco as a pick.

The drilling rig service provider with a market
capitalization of US$29bn issued US$3bn of five-, 10- and
30-year bonds in November, a deal that increased its leverage to
1.0x from 0.1x.

"Having only US$500m of bonds outstanding in the market, it
was not a well known name to investors, so their new issue
spreads came at what we thought were very wide levels for a high
single-A credit," said Schivell. "Now their new bonds are
trading 20bp tighter than new issue levels."

Heavy oil and gas issuance is expected in 2013, given the
level of production commitments for projects over the next two
to three years.

"Global exploration and production spending is set to reach
a new record of US$644bn in 2013, up 7% from US$604bn in 2012,"
according to a Barclays report.

Barclays estimates that E&P spending will reach a record of
US$460bn, up 9% from around US$421bn for 2012, which was itself
up 11% from 2011 levels.

"Sustained high oil prices, the sanctioning of major
projects and the delivery of a large number of offshore rigs in
both 2012 and 2013 are driving the increases in spending," said
Barclays analysts.

The wild card for deal volume is the extent to which natural
gas companies - and even miners like Freeport McMoRan
this week and BHP Billiton before it - look to diversify their
sources of funding by going into the oil and gas business.

The most likely to seek bolt on E&P acquisitions are natural
gas companies suffering from low prices. Having explored for
natural gas reserves, taking on an oil and gas explorer and
producer is usually a natural fit.

However, the backlash Freeport-McMoRan suffered this week,
after announcing its US$9bn of E&P acquisitions, companies
without at least some experience in the oil and gas field might
think twice before diversifying into the sector.

Spreads on Freeport's 3.55% notes due March 2022 gapped out
almost 30bp to 199bp on Wednesday, after news hit that it
planned to buy Plains Exploration & Production Co and McMoRan
Exploration Co for US$9bn of cash and stock, with investors
expecting a large chunk of that to be raised via bond issues.

Its 2022s continued to widen out on Thursday, quoted this
morning at 205bp from Wednesday's close of 200bp.

"People don't like the fact that Freeport is switching the
business strategy," said Schivell. "The company seems to be
using their balance sheet strength to make a play to diversify
their business at a time when money is so cheap.

[MWM]

[MWM]

US Oil Headed for Steep Drop to $75: Pro

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is set to plummet to $75 per barrel as increased use of shale oil in the U.S. blots out demand for the energy source, one expert told CNBC.

Full Story:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100544785

[MWM]

California Shale Plays

I'm digging up all the little plays I can find...

[MEA_1956]

Good read. little do they know about Frac.

[MWM]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/04/us/vast-oil-reserve-may-now-be-within-reach-and-battle-heats-up.html?src=recg&_r=0

[MEA_1956]

KWK === been eying this play for a couple of weeks now and it's getting to the point were I thinking of taking a starter. Anyone here have any thoughts on this Co., it's management, it's various plays, or types of drill plans. TIA MEA

[mgland]

Drama. Going to post suspension on rigs board

[MWM]

A bunch of clowns still defending it over on the SIOR board too...

Deleting post after post...

[mgland]

Wow.

[MWM]

SIOR was finally halted by the SEC, EDF noticed they transferred some of their assets out of the company a few weeks back...

Complete garbage company and the reason why pennyland is in such turmoil...

SCAM SCAM SCAM!

[MWM]

ZEX.V nice looking Cali Shale play...

[MWM]

California could be next oil boom state
By Steve Hargreaves@CNNMoney
January 14, 2013: 9:52 AM ET

California's Monterey Shale, seen here, has a massive mount of oil and the state could be poised for a boom, if it can safely get the crude out of the ground.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

California is sitting on a massive amount of shale oil and could become the next oil boom state. But only if the industry can get the stuff out of the ground without upsetting the state's powerful environmental lobby.

Running from Los Angeles to San Francisco, California's Monterey Shale is thought to contain more oil than North Dakota's Bakken and Texas's Eagle Ford -- both scenes of an oil boom that's created thousands of jobs and boosted U.S. oil production to the highest rate in over a decade.

In fact, the Monterey is thought to hold over 400 billion barrels of oil, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. That's nearly half the conventional oil in all of Saudi Arabia. The United States consumes about 19 million barrels of oil a day.

"Four hundred billion barrels, that doesn't escape anyone in this businesses," said Stephen Trammel, energy research director at IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

The trick now is getting it out.

Related: World's 10 biggest energy projects

As a result of the San Andres fault, California's geologic layers are folded like an accordion rather than simply stacked on top of each other like they are in other Shale states. The folds have naturally cracked the shale rock, and much of California's current "conventional" oil production -- the third largest in the nation -- is thought to come from the Monterey.

But the folds mean recent advancements that have made shale oil and gas profitable to extract -- horizontal drilling combined with hydraulic fracturing -- don't work as well in California. It's hard to drill horizontally if the shale is not flat.

Plus, it appears the Monterey is made up of shale rock that doesn't respond as well to hydraulic fracturing -- the controversial practice known as fracking that involves injecting water, sand and chemicals into the ground under high pressure to crack the rock and allow the oil and gas to flow.

Still, the U.S. Energy Information Agency estimates there are over 15 billion barrels of oil that can be recovered using today's technology.

"That's a huge number," said Matt Woodson, an analyst at the energy research firm Wood Mackenzie. Woodson said the 15 billion number far exceeds current estimates for North Dakota's Bakken Shale, and is about half the amount held in Alaska's North Slope before it was tapped.

That potential has attracted the attention of the oil industry.

Several oil companies have put together research teams to work on the Monterey, said Katie Potter, head of exploration and production staffing at NES Global Talent, a company that recruits oil industry professionals.

If the Monterey takes off, Potter said the impact on jobs in the state would be huge, saying the shale boom has already created 600,000 jobs nationwide over the last few years.

"It could potentially solve the state's budget deficit," she said.

Last month, the government held a lease sale to drill in the Monterey. While only a modest 18,000 acres were offered, they were all snapped up.

Occidental (OXY, Fortune 500), which is California-based and has long held acres in the Monterey, has had some success using a technology known as deep acid injection, said IHS's Trammel.

The process involves injecting hydrofluoric or other acids deep underground, where they eat away at the shale rock and allow the oil to flow. It's cheaper than fracking, said Trammel. And while it sounds ominous, it may not be as controversial, as the volumes involved are far less and it's not done under such pressure, he said.

Still, no matter how the oil is produced, environmentalists in the Golden State are keeping close watch.

Fracking could still become an issue, as it has in other states where it's led to fears over groundwater contamination, said Nathan Matthews, a Sierra Club attorney based in San Francisco. And there's no guarantee acid injection is much better.

Plus, there's air pollution, road congestion and other issues that go along with an oil boom.

Matthews wants California regulators to require full disclosure of everything the oil industry is putting in the ground, as well as individual permits issued for each well drilled.

"There's a chance to get this done much better than where it's been done elsewhere," said Matthews. "We need to understand the risks before we open the flood gate."

Regulations or not, there's still no guarantee there will be an oil boom at all.

"It might not live up to its expectations," said Fadel Gheit, a senior energy analyst at Oppenheimer. "The industry has not concluded whether it's boom or bust."

But given the rapid advances over the last few years in oil drilling and producing technology, the smart money may be on boom.

"There are some pretty creative people in this industry," said Trammel. "I'd say they are going to figure it out."


http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/14/news/economy/california-oil-boom/index.html?iid=HP_LN

[SeaOhToo]

$EPM looking good! Check out latest presentation and interview.

[MWM]

Easily below $3, probably not below $2 again but maybe $2.50's...

[Traderfan]

What do you think how low will NG go this time? Below 3??

[MWM]

Keep an eye on the Gas Plays, Time to SHORT the BeJesus out of them...

Link back for charts!

[mick]

rago

[MWM]

It's rango now, RAGO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RAGO&ql=0

[mick]

avoe? do you have new name and symbol?

re;
Here is a few I've been watching

SIOR has leases in the Missippian Lime in Oklahoma, except the company won't release an update or PR if any kind...

a huge longshot is AVOE, who is doing a ridiculous 1/50 R/S and name change unfortunately but they have wells in Smackover, Arkansas which has quietly become a big hotspot with some large names grabbing land...

Also kind of like OTTEF, Aussie company in the Phillipines, they have a lot of claims in the disputed South China Sea which has been getting a lot of attention of late...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=OEL.AX&ql=0

anyone?

[MWM]

AusTex http://www.redherring.com/finance/american-innovation-advancements-affecting-us-oil-economy-jobs-and-investment-returns/#comments

[MWM]

Oil Trust Charts

[MWM]

U.S. set to overtake Saudi in oil output: IEA

LONDON--A shale oil boom means the U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer by 2020, a radical shift that could profoundly transform not just the world's energy supplies, but also its geopolitics, the International Energy Agency said Monday.

In its closely watched annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA, which advises industrialized nations on their energy policies, said the global energy map, "is being redrawn by the resurgence in oil and gas production in the United States."

The assessment is in stark contrast with last year, when it envisioned Russia and Saudi Arabia vying for the top position.

"By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer" and overtake Saudi Arabia for a time, the agency said. "The result is a continued fall in U.S. oil imports (currently at 20% of its needs) to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030."

This major shift will be driven by the faster-than-expected development of hydrocarbon resources locked in shale and other tight rock that have just started to be unlocked by a new combination of technologies called hydraulic fracturing.

According to Washington's Energy Information Administration, U.S. oil production has increased 7% to 10.76 million barrels a day since the IEA's last outlook a year ago. The agency's conclusions are partly backed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which last week acknowledged for the first time that shale oil would significantly diminish its share of the U.S. market.

The group said the U.S. would import less than 2 million barrels a day in 2035, almost three-quarters less than it does today. That's not to say OPEC's role will be marginalized globally. The group's share of global production will increase from 42% today to 50% in 2035, with much of it going to Asia, according to the IEA.

The IEA hinted that newly found U.S. energy independence could redefine military alliances, with Washington being replaced by Asian nations as those needing to secure oil shipping lanes.

"It accelerates the switch in direction of international oil trade towards Asia, putting a focus on the security of the strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets," it said. Some in the U.S. are already questioning the reasons for keeping U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf. "It's insane that we have the Fifth Fleet of the U.S. Navy tied up there to protect oil that ends up in China and Europe," T. Boone Pickens, chief executive of energy-focused hedge fund BP Capital Management, was quoted as saying last week in U.S. magazine Parade.

The IEA also warned that the emergence of shale gas as a game changer in global energy has a downside risk, contributing to increased competition for water resources needed for energy projects.

Shale oil and gas are extracted by pumping water, sand and chemicals into the ground at high pressure to crack rocks open, a process known as hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking." But the intensive use of water, "will increasingly impose additional costs," and could "threaten the viability of projects" for shale oil and gas, and also biofuels, the agency said.

[MWM]

WOW!

[EdF]

Looked at the charts, this is the one that jumped out a bit.

[MWM]

Trusts