Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
CNBC: Novavax’s updated Covid vaccine can still catch up to Pfizer, Moderna shots this fall
October 7, 2023
KEY POINTS
• Novavax’s updated Covid vaccine is arriving nearly three weeks after new jabs from Pfizer and Moderna reached Americans — but analysts aren’t worried about that delay.
• It still appears well positioned to compete with the other companies in the U.S. Covid vaccine market this fall, particularly after logistical issues hampered the rollout of the other shots.
• That’s good news for Novavax, which is working to strengthen its financial position after raising doubts about its ability to stay in business at the beginning of the year.
Americans can finally get their hands on Novavax’s newest Covid vaccine after U.S. regulators greenlighted the shot this week.
The vaccine’s arrival comes nearly three weeks after new jabs from Pfizer and Moderna reached the public, and after more than 4 million patients rolled up their sleeves to get a shot in September. But Wall Street analysts aren’t worried about that delay.
They said Novavax appears well positioned to catch up and compete this fall with the other companies in the U.S. Covid vaccine market, particularly after logistical issues hampered the rollout of the other shots and a Food and Drug Administration label that allows for wide accessibility to Novavax’s jab, among other factors.
“I’m really not concerned about the timeline or lag relative to the other shots,” B. Riley Securities analyst Mayank Mamtani told CNBC. He added that regulators cleared Novavax’s new shot only slightly later than what the company had estimated, which was late in the third quarter.
That’s good news for Novavax, which is working to strengthen its financial position after raising doubts about its ability to stay in business at the beginning of the year. The biotech company is banking on sales of its updated Covid vaccine — its only commercially available product — and a broad cost-cutting push to help it stay afloat.
Public health officials see Novavax’s vaccine as a valuable alternative for people who don’t want to take messenger RNA shots from Pfizer and Moderna, which teach cells how to make proteins that trigger an immune response against Covid. Novavax’s shot fends off the virus with protein-based technology, a decades-old method used in routine vaccinations against hepatitis B and shingles.
Silvia Taylor, Novavax’s chief corporate affairs and advocacy officer, told CNBC that the company has collected data showing that 25% to 30% of people prefer a protein-based vaccine.
“We look forward to meeting this demand and more in the wake of new variants and rising COVID cases,” Taylor said in a statement.
Shares of Novavax jumped more than 10% on Tuesday after the FDA cleared its new shot. But the company’s stock is still down more than 25% year to date after shedding more than 90% of its value last year.
Novavax’s shot has a broad authorization label
The FDA authorized Novavax’s updated vaccine — which targets the omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 — for emergency use in people ages 12 and older. Patients previously vaccinated with an older Covid vaccine are eligible to receive one dose of Novavax’s new jab, while unvaccinated people can receive two doses, according to the authorization.
The FDA similarly approved the new shots from Pfizer and Moderna for people ages 12 and older, but the agency also authorized those vaccines for emergency use in children ages 6 months through 11 years old.
Still, Mamtani said the authorization label for Novavax’s new vaccine is “broad and without any notable restrictions for the first time,” which will likely make the shot as widely accessible to teens and adults as the new mRNA jabs. That puts Novavax on more of a level playing field with Pfizer and Moderna this fall, even as a late entrant to the game.
The label for Novavax’s last Covid booster was far more restrictive. Last year, the FDA authorized it as a first booster dose for people ages 18 and older who couldn’t receive a new mRNA shot for accessibility or clinical reasons. That “basically disqualified a lot of people” from getting it last fall, according to Mamtani.
“Finally, after three years, Novavax has a label that puts its vaccine at parity with the mRNA shots,” Mamtani said. “I think the most powerful words on that label was that people can get it regardless of their previous Covid vaccination history.”
Logistical issues slowed down Pfizer, Moderna
Novavax’s vaccine is entering the market after Pfizer and Moderna had a bumpy start to the rollout of their shots. Insurance and supply-related issues left many Americans unable to find or access the new mRNA vaccines for free, which may give Novavax an opportunity to catch up and get more people to take its shot.
“We know that a lot of people have tried to get an mRNA vaccine, but they aren’t able to because of logistical challenges of access and distribution,” Jefferies analyst Roger Song told CNBC. “So, that’s one reason why the two or three weeks delay won’t necessarily be a hurdle for Novavax.”
There’s no way of knowing whether the rollout of Novavax’s new shot will see similar logistical snags or if it will have a smoother launch. The federal government shifted Covid vaccine distribution and coverage to the private market for the first time this fall. That has proved to be a tricky transition for the U.S. health-care system.
However, health-care providers and pharmacies have signaled that they are ironing out logistical issues and will be better equipped to handle them in the future.
Last week, a group of insurers told the Biden administration they were “largely, if not completely,” done with fixing delays in insurance coverage for the new Covid shots. Those delays had resulted in some patients getting charged up to $190 for a shot at pharmacies.
“Should further issues arise, we stand ready to swiftly implement system improvements,” the insurers said in a letter.
Some pharmacies, like Walgreens
, also appear to be resolving supply disruptions, which left many stores without any new Covid shots for patients to receive.
Covid vaccinations could peak later this fall
What’s more, Novavax’s new shot might actually be arriving at just the right time: a month before Covid vaccine demand is expected to peak in the U.S. this fall and winter.
Jefferies’ Song said the peak could follow a similar pattern as last season when most Covid boosters were administered in November. That’s partly because there is “less urgency” among Americans when it comes to Covid shots compared to early on in the pandemic, which could cause them to get vaccinated later rather than earlier.
“During the first season of Covid, everyone rushed to get vaccinations because it was really an emergency state. But now people have a mindset where they’re saying, ‘OK, I will wait and see how bad Covid really gets,’” Song said.
By November, Novavax’s new shot will likely be as widely available as shots from Pfizer and Moderna at pharmacies, doctor’s offices and other vaccine distribution sites.
But the biggest uncertainty this fall for all three companies is how many Americans will decide to get another Covid vaccine, Song said.
Last year’s uptake was already feeble: Only about 17% of the U.S. population — around 56 million people — received last year’s boosters, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“We don’t know how big the overall pie will be because we’ve never been in a commercial market for Covid vaccines,” he told CNBC. “This fall will set a new benchmark for the entire Covid vaccine space.”
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/07/novavax-covid-vaccine-can-still-catch-up-to-pfizer-moderna-shots.html
TMF: This Could be Novavax's Big Opportunity
The Motley Fool
October 7, 2023
Early on in the pandemic, Moderna and Pfizer beat smaller rival Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) to market with their coronavirus vaccines by a year or more in some countries. This head start offered them the lion's share of the market and revenue, and Novavax couldn't catch up.
As we head into a new vaccination season, Moderna and Pfizer once again reached commercialization first with their updated coronavirus vaccines. But this time, Novavax is only a few weeks behind -- and may have a better chance of gaining market share. In fact, this could be Novavax's big opportunity to prove its value in the world of coronavirus prevention -- and a key step to recurring vaccine revenue.
Updated coronavirus vaccines
Moderna and Pfizer scored a nod from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for their updated vaccines in early September, and just this week Novavax earned an OK from the agency. So Moderna and Pfizer were able to start vaccinating about three weeks ahead of the smaller biotech company.
But Novavax may have more of a chance to gain market share now than it did in the first round of vaccinations. That's because the entire vaccine landscape is changing. Today, companies aren't just selling doses to governments. Instead, they are shifting to a commercial model, which involves selling doses directly to healthcare providers.
For vaccine makers, serving a greater number of clients in many more locations has slowed down the logistics of getting doses to their destinations. As a result, demand has surpassed supply in certain areas, and some pharmacies are even prioritizing the most at-risk people first.
So far, about 2 million Americans have received updated coronavirus shots, CNBC reported, and about half of Americans are interested in getting a shot, a Reuters poll shows. This means Novavax clearly could carve out market share if it is able to rapidly deliver promised doses to customers.
I wouldn't expect Novavax to sell nearly as many as leaders Pfizer and Moderna, since these players launched their updated vaccines first and sell dominant brands that healthcare providers have widely used in the past. But that's OK. This still could be Novavax's big opportunity to progressively establish itself.
The path to recurring revenue
Now here's why this is important. We're no longer talking about selling a vaccine once in a pandemic situation. The coronavirus is here to stay, health experts say, and that means vaccine makers could sell vaccines annually -- much like they do for the flu. And that equals recurring revenue, a very positive addition to any company's earnings picture.
What's more, a greater presence in the vaccine marketplace now may help Novavax excel later with a potential combined flu/coronavirus vaccine product.
Novavax, Moderna, and Pfizer all are working on combined candidates, but if the coronavirus vaccine market indeed mimics that of the flu, demand for such a product could be high -- and enough for all three companies to generate significant revenue annually.
What does all of this mean for investors? Well, it's important to keep an eye on Novavax's progress this vaccine season to see if it's able to make gains in the market and ensure deliveries to customers. If you're a cautious investor, Novavax still shouldn't move from your watch list to your buy list until we have more visibility on these points.
But if you're an aggressive investor, you may want to take the chance that the second time will be the charm for Novavax and scoop up a few shares. It's unlikely this biotech company will come close to the sales levels of its bigger rivals, but it still could reap long-term rewards from its vaccine innovation in the coronavirus and flu markets. And, if that happens, investors who get in early on the shares may win big.
Source: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/this-could-be-novavaxs-big-opportunity
Nothing to worry about here. Shorts playing with fire. Trying to hold down but that won’t last for too long. Every-time they place a bet against the co and end losing. Good guidance orders and possible partnership will release the kraken
justin77, why the drop here today? Thx 😺
Malaria news and now FDA. Good two days. Now waiting on Canada and EMA
Bill approved for temporary government funding should keep FDA open long enough to approve Novavax vaccine. Short squeeze back on the table.
I'm still buying. I have faith share price will get sorted out by end of year to align better with true value of company. I'm taking the Novavax vaccine as soon as it's available to me.
Watching share price daily will drive you nuts. Invest here only if trading for quick in/out, otherwise hold longer term and ignore the short-term noise of wild share price swings.
Good for you. I am losing hope here. Super powers don’t want them to success. Shorts seem so confident.
Pending FDA EMA approvals and confirmation of orders
How low do ya’ll see this being dropped to after quarterly report and government shutdown?
Yes more negative articles are expected to scare weak hands and have shorts cover somehow
Thank you WSJ for the article. I guess the shorts will be covering today!
reason i sold...
meip huge,catching the train.
You missed the spike. Sorry, good luck.
all out...
with small gain.
going meip.
We have to give Congress people time to unwind their Moderna and Pfizer positions, so they can get in. Then we can approve it.
Novavax: The Short Squeeze Story Isn't A Complete No-Brainer
Seeking Alpha
Sept 21, 2023
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636569-novavax-the-short-squeeze-story-isnt-a-complete-no-brainer
At least the EU has given a date they are going to review the vaccine and I assume pretty soon after a decision. I’m sure the FDA won’t be too far behind.
Gotta get that FDA stamp of approval. Guess they didn't pay as much as Moderna and Pfizer.
Surprised it didn’t pump more with this news.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/europe-expects-decide-novavaxs-covid-vaccine-october-2023-09-21/
Bought more at 6.88. Missed the bottom!
Bought in here in seven seventies on Friday, hoping good news is not far off.
Thanks for the response. I picked up more NVAX today and buying more tomorrow. I'm taking the new vaccine as soon as it's available after FDA approval.
Check CVNA chart recent major squeeze. Had 50%+ of float shorted before that major move.. NVAX should do really well considering FDA green lights them
How high could this go during the short squeeze? Have you seen other stocks in this position regarding shorts? With such a high percentage of shares shorted, and with the new Covid vaccine relatively close to FDA approval, seems pretty risky to short this stock right now.
I took advantage of the sell-off/shorting today to buy shares under $9.
42% float short…announcement…then the “mother of all squeezes”
Nvax becomes #1 shorted stock in the markets
(.) - (.)
\/
———-
Eyes on nvax squeeze !
https://www.highshortinterest.com
$8.55 squeeze !!!
Watch for $8.50 break here for vol push !
$8.40 Short Squeeze Watch ~ 8/29/23
42%+ Of Float Short 39+ Mill Shares Pending Vaccine News -> https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVAX&p=d
Pending news !!—> Novavax is in the process of submitting applications for its XBB.1.5 COVID vaccine candidate to regulatory authorities globally.
Novavax's Updated Protein-based XBB COVID Vaccine Induced Neutralizing Responses Against Emerging Subvariants, Including EG.5.1 and XBB.1.16.6
Source: PR Newswire (US)
Novavax's 2023-2024 season COVID vaccine candidate induced neutralizing responses to emerging subvariants EG.5.1 and XBB.1.16.6 in addition to XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 and XBB.2.3
Upon regulatory approval, Novavax's COVID vaccine would be the only protein-based non-mRNA vaccine option available in key markets for the fall season
GAITHERSBURG, Md., Aug. 22, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX), a global company advancing protein-based vaccines with its novel Matrix-M™ adjuvant, today announced that its updated protein-based XBB COVID vaccine candidate induced neutralizing antibody responses to the EG.5.1 and XBB.1.16.6 subvariants in small animal and non-human primate studies. XBB sublineage variants are overwhelmingly responsible for the majority of current COVID cases in the U.S. and European Union.1, 2
"Our data have shown that Novavax's protein-based COVID vaccine induces broadly neutralizing responses against XBB subvariants, including EG.5.1 and XBB.1.16.6," said Filip Dubovsky, President of Research and Development, Novavax. "We have a lot of confidence in our updated COVID vaccine and are working diligently with global regulatory bodies to ensure our protein-based vaccine is available this fall."
Non-clinical data previously showed that Novavax's COVID vaccine candidate induced functional immune responses for XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 and XBB.2.3 variants, indicating a broad response that could potentially be applicable for forward-drift variants.3 Novavax is in the process of submitting applications for its XBB.1.5 COVID vaccine candidate to regulatory authorities globally.
has anybody seen yesterday where enzolytics pharm announced they now have a cure for hiv/aids. wow.
NVAX
Novavax Inc
7.4089
-0.2811 (-3.66%)
Volume: 6,408,571
Day Range: 7.34 - 7.73
Last Trade Time: 7:59:23 PM EDT
NVAX
Novavax Inc
8.61
-0.63 (-6.82%)
Volume: 5,536,007
Day Range: 8.51 - 9.2277
Bid: 8.55
Ask: 8.67
Last Trade Time: 7:57:52 PM EDT
Total Trades: 34,562
Novavax, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company committed to delivering novel products to prevent a broad range of infectious diseases.
Using innovative proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology,
we produce vaccine candidates to efficiently and effectively respond to both known and emerging disease threats. More...
INVESTORS
Novavax is traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol NVAX and is dedicated to developing novel vaccines to address infectious disease. More...
*DISCLAIMER *The Board Monitor and The Board Assistants herewith, are not licensed brokers and assume NO responsibility for the actions, investment decisions, and or messages posted on this forum.
• We do NOT recommend that anyone buy or sell any securities posted herewith. Any trade entered into risks the possibility of losing the funds invested.
• There are no guarantees when buying or selling any security.
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |