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TMF: This Could be Novavax's Big Opportunity
The Motley Fool
October 7, 2023
Early on in the pandemic, Moderna and Pfizer beat smaller rival Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) to market with their coronavirus vaccines by a year or more in some countries. This head start offered them the lion's share of the market and revenue, and Novavax couldn't catch up.
As we head into a new vaccination season, Moderna and Pfizer once again reached commercialization first with their updated coronavirus vaccines. But this time, Novavax is only a few weeks behind -- and may have a better chance of gaining market share. In fact, this could be Novavax's big opportunity to prove its value in the world of coronavirus prevention -- and a key step to recurring vaccine revenue.
Updated coronavirus vaccines
Moderna and Pfizer scored a nod from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for their updated vaccines in early September, and just this week Novavax earned an OK from the agency. So Moderna and Pfizer were able to start vaccinating about three weeks ahead of the smaller biotech company.
But Novavax may have more of a chance to gain market share now than it did in the first round of vaccinations. That's because the entire vaccine landscape is changing. Today, companies aren't just selling doses to governments. Instead, they are shifting to a commercial model, which involves selling doses directly to healthcare providers.
For vaccine makers, serving a greater number of clients in many more locations has slowed down the logistics of getting doses to their destinations. As a result, demand has surpassed supply in certain areas, and some pharmacies are even prioritizing the most at-risk people first.
So far, about 2 million Americans have received updated coronavirus shots, CNBC reported, and about half of Americans are interested in getting a shot, a Reuters poll shows. This means Novavax clearly could carve out market share if it is able to rapidly deliver promised doses to customers.
I wouldn't expect Novavax to sell nearly as many as leaders Pfizer and Moderna, since these players launched their updated vaccines first and sell dominant brands that healthcare providers have widely used in the past. But that's OK. This still could be Novavax's big opportunity to progressively establish itself.
The path to recurring revenue
Now here's why this is important. We're no longer talking about selling a vaccine once in a pandemic situation. The coronavirus is here to stay, health experts say, and that means vaccine makers could sell vaccines annually -- much like they do for the flu. And that equals recurring revenue, a very positive addition to any company's earnings picture.
What's more, a greater presence in the vaccine marketplace now may help Novavax excel later with a potential combined flu/coronavirus vaccine product.
Novavax, Moderna, and Pfizer all are working on combined candidates, but if the coronavirus vaccine market indeed mimics that of the flu, demand for such a product could be high -- and enough for all three companies to generate significant revenue annually.
What does all of this mean for investors? Well, it's important to keep an eye on Novavax's progress this vaccine season to see if it's able to make gains in the market and ensure deliveries to customers. If you're a cautious investor, Novavax still shouldn't move from your watch list to your buy list until we have more visibility on these points.
But if you're an aggressive investor, you may want to take the chance that the second time will be the charm for Novavax and scoop up a few shares. It's unlikely this biotech company will come close to the sales levels of its bigger rivals, but it still could reap long-term rewards from its vaccine innovation in the coronavirus and flu markets. And, if that happens, investors who get in early on the shares may win big.
Source: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/this-could-be-novavaxs-big-opportunity
Nothing to worry about here. Shorts playing with fire. Trying to hold down but that won’t last for too long. Every-time they place a bet against the co and end losing. Good guidance orders and possible partnership will release the kraken
justin77, why the drop here today? Thx 😺
Malaria news and now FDA. Good two days. Now waiting on Canada and EMA
Bill approved for temporary government funding should keep FDA open long enough to approve Novavax vaccine. Short squeeze back on the table.
I'm still buying. I have faith share price will get sorted out by end of year to align better with true value of company. I'm taking the Novavax vaccine as soon as it's available to me.
Watching share price daily will drive you nuts. Invest here only if trading for quick in/out, otherwise hold longer term and ignore the short-term noise of wild share price swings.
Good for you. I am losing hope here. Super powers don’t want them to success. Shorts seem so confident.
Pending FDA EMA approvals and confirmation of orders
How low do ya’ll see this being dropped to after quarterly report and government shutdown?
Yes more negative articles are expected to scare weak hands and have shorts cover somehow
Thank you WSJ for the article. I guess the shorts will be covering today!
reason i sold...
meip huge,catching the train.
You missed the spike. Sorry, good luck.
all out...
with small gain.
going meip.
We have to give Congress people time to unwind their Moderna and Pfizer positions, so they can get in. Then we can approve it.
Novavax: The Short Squeeze Story Isn't A Complete No-Brainer
Seeking Alpha
Sept 21, 2023
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4636569-novavax-the-short-squeeze-story-isnt-a-complete-no-brainer
At least the EU has given a date they are going to review the vaccine and I assume pretty soon after a decision. I’m sure the FDA won’t be too far behind.
Gotta get that FDA stamp of approval. Guess they didn't pay as much as Moderna and Pfizer.
Surprised it didn’t pump more with this news.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/europe-expects-decide-novavaxs-covid-vaccine-october-2023-09-21/
Bought more at 6.88. Missed the bottom!
Bought in here in seven seventies on Friday, hoping good news is not far off.
Thanks for the response. I picked up more NVAX today and buying more tomorrow. I'm taking the new vaccine as soon as it's available after FDA approval.
Check CVNA chart recent major squeeze. Had 50%+ of float shorted before that major move.. NVAX should do really well considering FDA green lights them
How high could this go during the short squeeze? Have you seen other stocks in this position regarding shorts? With such a high percentage of shares shorted, and with the new Covid vaccine relatively close to FDA approval, seems pretty risky to short this stock right now.
I took advantage of the sell-off/shorting today to buy shares under $9.
42% float short…announcement…then the “mother of all squeezes”
Nvax becomes #1 shorted stock in the markets
(.) - (.)
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Eyes on nvax squeeze !
https://www.highshortinterest.com
$8.55 squeeze !!!
Watch for $8.50 break here for vol push !
$8.40 Short Squeeze Watch ~ 8/29/23
42%+ Of Float Short 39+ Mill Shares Pending Vaccine News -> https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NVAX&p=d
Pending news !!—> Novavax is in the process of submitting applications for its XBB.1.5 COVID vaccine candidate to regulatory authorities globally.
Novavax's Updated Protein-based XBB COVID Vaccine Induced Neutralizing Responses Against Emerging Subvariants, Including EG.5.1 and XBB.1.16.6
Source: PR Newswire (US)
Novavax's 2023-2024 season COVID vaccine candidate induced neutralizing responses to emerging subvariants EG.5.1 and XBB.1.16.6 in addition to XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 and XBB.2.3
Upon regulatory approval, Novavax's COVID vaccine would be the only protein-based non-mRNA vaccine option available in key markets for the fall season
GAITHERSBURG, Md., Aug. 22, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX), a global company advancing protein-based vaccines with its novel Matrix-M™ adjuvant, today announced that its updated protein-based XBB COVID vaccine candidate induced neutralizing antibody responses to the EG.5.1 and XBB.1.16.6 subvariants in small animal and non-human primate studies. XBB sublineage variants are overwhelmingly responsible for the majority of current COVID cases in the U.S. and European Union.1, 2
"Our data have shown that Novavax's protein-based COVID vaccine induces broadly neutralizing responses against XBB subvariants, including EG.5.1 and XBB.1.16.6," said Filip Dubovsky, President of Research and Development, Novavax. "We have a lot of confidence in our updated COVID vaccine and are working diligently with global regulatory bodies to ensure our protein-based vaccine is available this fall."
Non-clinical data previously showed that Novavax's COVID vaccine candidate induced functional immune responses for XBB.1.5, XBB.1.16 and XBB.2.3 variants, indicating a broad response that could potentially be applicable for forward-drift variants.3 Novavax is in the process of submitting applications for its XBB.1.5 COVID vaccine candidate to regulatory authorities globally.
has anybody seen yesterday where enzolytics pharm announced they now have a cure for hiv/aids. wow.
NVAX
Novavax Inc
7.4089
-0.2811 (-3.66%)
Volume: 6,408,571
Day Range: 7.34 - 7.73
Last Trade Time: 7:59:23 PM EDT
NVAX
Novavax Inc
8.61
-0.63 (-6.82%)
Volume: 5,536,007
Day Range: 8.51 - 9.2277
Bid: 8.55
Ask: 8.67
Last Trade Time: 7:57:52 PM EDT
Total Trades: 34,562
NO LIKE DIS STUFF <> $NVAX <> raised doubts about its ability to remain in business, flagging uncertainties around its revenue and funding crunch.
Novovax – which has its COVID-19 vaccine as the only marketed product after 35 years in business – has raised doubts about its ability to remain in business, flagging uncertainties around its revenue and funding crunch.
The company said in May it expects 2023 revenue between $1.4 billion and $1.6 billion, of which $800 million was from "locked-in" overseas purchase contracts for the COVID shot that it has committed to ship this year.
(Reporting by Khushi Mandowara in Bengaluru; Editing by Shweta Agarwal)
Novavax, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company committed to delivering novel products to prevent a broad range of infectious diseases.
Using innovative proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology,
we produce vaccine candidates to efficiently and effectively respond to both known and emerging disease threats. More...
INVESTORS
Novavax is traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol NVAX and is dedicated to developing novel vaccines to address infectious disease. More...
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