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This should modestly help NVS:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903366504576485691831623716.html
NVS 2Q11 Investor Materials
Financial results PR:
http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/q2-2011-media-release-en.pdf
Sales of top-20 drugs:
http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/2011-07-q2-suppplementary-financial-data.pdf
R&D-update PR:
http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/2011-07-q2-innovation-update.pdf
Webcast slides:
http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/event-calendar/2011/2011-07-novartis-q2-presentation.pdf
NVS’ 2Q11 results:
http://www.novartis.com/downloads/investors/financial-results/quarterly-results/q2-2011-media-release-en.pdf .
Of greatest interest for MNTA: 2Q11 sales of generic Lovenox were $284M (#msg-65315981).
NVS’ PR will be out at 1:15 am ET. CC at 8am ET.
NVS - Half-year results (July 19th)
Dew, what time can we expect NVS Q2 earnings release (Midnight/1am EST? on July 19th) and earnings conference call (8am EST?)? Thanks.
Everolimus (Afinitor®) is shaping up to be a pipeline in a single drug. If I'm not mistaken it is currently approved for 4 indications. Breast cancer looks to be far and away the largest indication yet. This from a drug with a pathway (mTor)that analysts initially indicated would not amount to anything significant.
http://www.novartis.com/newsroom/media-releases/en/2011/1528340.shtml
FL
FDA approves Arcapta Neohaler (QAB149 monotherapy) for COPD at 75mcg dose:
#msg-64832365
Non-approval of the higher dose (150mcg) of QAB149 monotherapy is somewhat bearish for NVS’ plans to develop the combination product, QVA149.
I WISH I knew what that meant?
NVA237 Succeeds in ‘GLOW2’ Phase-3 Study in COPD:
#msg-64761738
As explained in the above link, this is an important drug as both a monotherapy and a constituent of the QVA149 combination product.
FDA advisory panel rejects Ilaris for gout:
#msg-64476472
NVS has been on a roll lately, but you can’t win them all.
3y of Gleevec superior to 1y in GIST patients:
#msg-63903314
Extending the duration of treatment is one of the best ways to increase sales in an environment where price increases are all but impossible (#msg-63877165).
NVS reports positive Ilaris in gouty arthritis: #msg-63569565.
Almost an all-time high. Highest share price since Aug 2008.
Possible competition for Lucentis several years from now: #msg-62757686.
CATT results and musings on what they mean:
#msg-62547005 Results
#msg-62550310 Musings
Update on CATT study of Avastin vs Lucentis: #msg-62505001.
Update on data release from the CATT study: #msg-62308280.
Two notable items from the 1Q11 PR and CC:
• Strong growth in the BRIC countries: #msg-62261315. (This is the future of the pharmaceutical industry!)
• Positive phase-3 results for NVA237 in COPD: #msg-62261390.
An ill received report tonight may be a nice entry point. I've been going round in circles on finally putting NVS in the shoe box for too long.
Tried once before and got stopped out.
Could also be about OPEX expiration Friday last week and reseting options prices for the next cycle. One must really wonder about the timing of todays news and a certain rating services so called impartiality. The dollar was up a good bit today as well.
Today’s 3.1% drop (much bigger than the 1.1% drop in the S&P 500) could be due to a WSJ piece over the weekend about the strong Swiss Franc’s hurting 1Q11 results.
kaching!
Dividend posted (into Vanguard account) yesterday. As I figure, not deducting the foreign tax, the gross dividend amount equals about 4.3% based on the price of shares at time of reinvesting dividends ($55.0975). Am I recalling correctly that there is a much smaller dividend at the end of the calendar year also?
Urche
Novartis AG Seals Alcon, Inc. Deal With $463 Million Cash Payment-Reuters
Friday, 8 Apr 2011 05:55am EDT
Reuters reported that Novartis AG has finally sealed its $50.9 billion buy of Alcon Inc by paying the eyecare group's minority shareholders an extra $463 million in cash. Alcon minority shareholders are getting 2.9228 Novartis shares, up from the originally announced 2.8 as this includes a dividend adjustment, as well as $8.20 in cash per share, meaning that each shareholder gets $168 per Alcon share. Novartis spent pretty much all of last year trying to clinch 100% ownership of Alcon, but its original all paper offer of 2.8 shares for each Alcon share met stiff resistance from Alcon's Independent Director Committee, which repeatedly dismissed this bid as grossly inadequate. Novartis eventually sweetened its bid with a cash component last December to ensure the Alcon shareholders receive $168, the average price Novartis paid for Nestle's 77% stake in Alcon. Both Novartis and Alcon shareholders have now backed the merger, which Novartis is hoping will help it to diversify and give it protection against patent losses on big selling medicines such as blood pressure drug Diovan.
NVS’ own PR on this is at http://www.novartis.com/newsroom/media-releases/en/2011/1504913.shtml .
FDA briefing documents for the ODAC meeting next week are at #msg-61871600.
Novartis Curbs US Submission For Afinitor Use In Cancer Tumors
19 minutes agoDow Jones
By Katharina Bart
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ZURICH (Dow Jones)--Novartis AG (NVS) Friday said it will limit its application for cancer drug Afinitor in the U.S. to one type of cancerous tumor only, dealing a potential blow to the Swiss drugmaker's pipeline of new treatments.
The Basel-based firm said it is now asking the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to approve Afinitor only to treat advanced pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors, a rare form of cancer that has recently received broader attention after it became public that Apple Inc. (AAPL) Chief Executive Steve Jobs had the disease.
This means that Novartis is effectively dropping Afinitor to treat advanced neuroendocrine tumors of gastrointestinal and lung origin after feedback from the health regulator.
"Novartis remains committed to patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumors and will continue to conduct studies in patients with advanced carcinoid tumors, where there is a critical unmet need," the company said.
Afinitor is also being studied in late-stage clinical trials for several other cancers, including advanced breast cancer. The drug, which in 2010 more than tripled sales to $243 million, is expected by analysts to become a blockbuster with more than $1 billion in annual sales.
Had Afinitor been able to clinch approval to treat different cancer types it could have--together with multiple-sclerosis pill Gilenya, which could net more than $3 billion in annual peak sales--helped reduce the sales loss impact from the patent expiry of heart drug Diovan.
Diovan, Novartis' best-selling drug, which had annual sales of more than $6 billion in 2010, will start to lose patent protection in some markets this year. Likewise, cancer medicine Femara, which has more than $1 billion in revenue, will face generic competition in 2011, which is likely to result in a steep sales slump. Depending on the number of generic entrants, sales can drop more than 50% after patent rights mature.
Novartis has said that, while it will continue to stick to its strategy of a diversified pharmaceutical company--the firm also owns a large generics, vaccines and eye-care treatment business--the Swiss drugs giant will push for the development of new drugs.
With more than 10% of its sales going into research and development, Novartis wants to boost the ratio of its specialized medicines over the next few years. Currently, Novartis generates around 20% of its drug sales with medicines that have recently been launched.
-By Katharina Bart, Dow Jones Newswires; +41 43 443 8043; katharina.bart@dowjones.com
Update on Avastin vs Lucentis in AMD: #msg-61713973.
Mostly fluff NVS profile in today’s WSJ:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703806304576236370877380628.html
Sprycel and Tasigna indeed have similar mechanisms of action; however, this doesn’t imply that Tasigna will necessarily work in the particular mutation cited in the DJ newswire.
p.s. Welcome to the board.
Study Suggests Potential For Bristol Leukemia Drug For Lung Cancer
58 minutes ago Dow Jones
By Jennifer Corbett Dooren
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ORLANDO, Fla. (Dow Jones)--Researchers have identified a mutation in a gene in some patients with squamous cell lung cancer that appears to respond to Sprycel, a Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) drug.
According to a study, scheduled to be published in a new cancer journal called Cancer Discovery, researchers found mutations in a gene called DDR2 among some patients with squamous cell lung cancer. That type of cancer affects about 50,000 people annually in the U.S. and researchers said there are no approved therapies that specifically target that type of lung cancer.
The research was led by Matthew Meyerson, a professor of pathology at the Dana Farber Cancer Institute in Boston.
Meyerson and his colleagues looked at about 290 samples of squamous lung tumors and ran them through genetic sequencing tests to look at the genes and any mutations of those genes in each tumor. They found that the DDR2 gene was the most frequently mutated in the samples. However, the mutation is rare and occurred in just 11 samples or 3.8%.
Meyerson estimates that DDR2 mutations would be present in 1,000 to 2,000 lung cancers in the U.S.
Researchers then tested some drugs against the tumors with the DDR2 mutations in the laboratory and found that Sprycel appeared to be the most effective.
"As a percentage of the millions of people who get cancer each year it is small, but cancer therapy is going more in the direction of personalized medicine as we learn more and more about the complicated biology of each tumor," Meyerson said.
The study is also being presented at the American Association for Cancer Research's annual meeting.
Because Sprycel is already approved for use to treat cancer, researchers said they hoped the findings would stimulate larger clinical studies into whether Sprycel or a similar drug might work to treat some types of squamous cell cancer.
Sarah Koenig, a spokeswoman for Bristol-Myers said, "We will review these data, but I wouldn't want to speculate about future development plans for Sprycel and lung cancer."
Sprycel is in a class of medicines called protein-tyrosine kinase inhibitors. It works by blocking the action of an abnormal protein that signals cancer cells to multiply. Another drug in the class, Tasigna, is marketed by Novartis AG (NVS).
-By Jennifer Corbett Dooren, Dow Jones Newswires, 202-862-9294; jennifer.corbett@dowjones.com
According to Fidelity (usually accurate in such things) ex was 2/24, pay 4/8. Should have no current effect on share movement given that the ex was a month ago.
NVS shareprice
Is there also an ex-dividend effect about now? I could not find the details of the dividend timing on the Novartis website.
Thanks for the heads up! Great DD
NVS shares could be volatile during the next 10 trading days because the weighted-average share price during this period determines the cash portion of the buyout of Alcon’s minority holders:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/24/novartis-idUSLDE72N0UI20110324
Novartis, Roche’s Xolair Blunts Asthma Attacks in Children in U.S. Cities
By Nicole Ostrow - Mar 16, 2011 2:00 PM PT
Xolair, sold by Novartis AG (NOVN) and Roche Holding AG (ROG), improved treatment of asthma for inner-city children and young adults, according to a U.S.-funded study.
Those given an injection of Xolair had fewer days with symptoms, such as wheezing and shortness of breath, and fewer asthma attacks compared with those on a placebo, researchers said today in the New England Journal of Medicine. The patients who responded best were those most allergic to cockroaches.
About 7.1 million U.S. children under the age of 18 have asthma, according to the American Lung Association, based in Washington. Reducing children’s allergic reactions can help them have fewer asthma attacks, said William Busse, the study’s lead author, in a telephone interview yesterday.
“The take-home message for physicians and parents is to realize that allergies play an important role in making children more susceptible to viral respiratory infection-provoked asthma attacks, especially those that occur on a seasonal basis,” said Busse, a professor of medicine at the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, in Madison.
Asthma attacks are more likely in spring and autumn, the seasons when more allergens are in the air and respiratory viruses rise, according to the U.S. National Institutes of Health, based in Bethesda, Maryland. The agency backed the study.
Xolair works in the body by attaching itself to immunoglobulin E, an antibody responsible for allergic reactions, Busse said. The drug brings the molecule out of circulation or pulls it from cells to reduce allergic reactions, he said. Xolair is the only drug in its class, he said.
Age Limit
The medicine costs about $1,000 a month and is usually covered by insurance, Busse said. Novartis’s 2010 sales of Xolair were $369 million, while Genentech’s revenue from the product totaled $616 million, according to data in the companies’ annual reports.
Xolair was approved in the U.S. in 2003 for use in adults and children aged 12 or older. Novartis, which also helped support today’s study, and Roche’s Genentech unit failed to win U.S. clearance in 2009 for Xolair in children aged 6 to 11.
Christopher Vancheri, a Genentech spokesman, said yesterday that the companies have no plans to seek U.S. approval again for children under 12. Both Novartis and Roche are based in Basel, Switzerland.
“Allergic asthma is a growing problem among inner-city children,” Vancheri said in an e-mail. The study provides “new information that continues to help further the understanding of the mechanism of asthma in this population.”
National Network
The study covered 419 patients aged 6 to 20 who had moderate to severe allergic asthma for more than a year. The children came from Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, New York, Washington and Tucson, Arizona. The patients were recruited by clinics in the Inner City Asthma Consortium, a nationwide network supported by the NIH.
The researchers sought to determine if adding Xolair, or omalizumab, to standard therapy reduced the number of days of asthma-related symptoms and the severity of attacks. U.S. guidelines call for patients to use inhaled corticosteroids, visit doctors and limit exposure to allergens.
The participants in the 60-week trial were split into two groups. One received Xolair and followed the guidelines for asthma therapy. The other group received a placebo and followed guidelines.
Hospital Visits
The patients taking Xolair had a 75 percent reduction in hospitalizations, according to the report. Xolair reduced the number of days with asthma symptoms to 1.48 in two weeks compared with 1.96 for those given a placebo, while lowering the proportion of people who had serious attacks to 30 percent from 49 percent, the study found. Xolair also almost eliminated seasonal rises in the episodes.
“No differences of concern regarding safety were noted between the two groups,” the researchers wrote. Severe allergic reactions called anaphylactic events were reported in seven patients, including just one on Xolair. Such reactions can lead to death, according to safety information on Xolair.com, a website maintained by Genentech and Novartis.
Busse said it was too soon to recommend that doctors give Xolair to kids under 12 for asthma and that longer-term research is needed. The Inner City Asthma Consortium is planning to study whether giving children Xolair for a short period before going back to school can reduce asthma attacks, he said.
“We continue searching for therapeutic strategies to reduce the enormous burden of asthma,” said Daniel Rotrosen, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’s Division of Allergy, Immunology and Transplantation program, which oversees the asthma network, in a statement.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicole Ostrow in New York at nostrow1@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Reg Gale at rgale5@bloomberg.net
Wrong board (eom).
Deutsche Bank is out with its report today on Navistar International Corp. (NYSE: NAV), maintaining Buy.
In a note to clients, Deutsche Bank writes, "NAV reported FQ1 clean EPS of $0.16 vs. our $0.21 est. Despite the headline optics, the quarter was in-line (recall NAV's low share count of 72MM; NAV's net income was $12MM vs. our $16MM est). Revenue of $2.74bn was below our $2.89bn estimate. EBIT of $93MM was ahead of our $87MM estimate, as were margins of 3.4% vs. our 3.0% est. We maintain our Buy recommendation based on valuation."
Source:
http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/11/03/917139/deutsche-bank-maintains-buy-on-navistar-international-cor#ixzz1GDKHBwjo
FDA Panel Rejects High-Dose QAB149 by 12-5 Vote:
#msg-60733567
It is hard to get your arms around the currency issue since it is multifaceted. NVS is so geographically diverse, I'll bet less than 30% of its R&D and manufacturing costs are tied to the Swiss Franc. The switch a few years ago to reporting in US dollars provided only a brief tailwind. At some point it would seem like the curency issue would play to NVS favor as the global sales are converted over to weaker dollars. That assumes that at some point the $14 trillion in debt starts to weigh on the dollar.
Regards
FL
Ahh. My bad for thinking a European company would be tied to the Euro.
However, it seems a good bet that the Swiss Franc after a banner run in 2010 is likely to do less well vs the Euro. And, I continue to think most major currencies are going to rise relative to the US dollar.
NVS vs cash
I am sizing up NVS as follows:
currently an attractive price to forward earnings ratio;
attractive (not great) dividend;
and international diversification (likely to be beneficial both in terms of growth and currency effect).
I am inclined to shift from cash to NVS in these circumstances.
Urche
Musings on NVS’ 4Q10 results: #msg-59333653.
7:03AM Novartis AG gains positive CHMP opinion for Gilenya, first oral multiple sclerosis treatment recommended for approval in the European Union (NVS) 56.25 : The European Medicines Agency's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) adopted a positive opinion for Gilenya 0.5 mg daily as a disease modifying therapy in patients with highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) despite treatment with beta interferon, or in patients with rapidly evolving severe relapsing- remitting MS.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59040668
Hypertension study supports use of NVS combination pill.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE70B0J520110113?feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssHealthcareNews&rpc=43
Fairly significant even IMO
If NVS announced a share buy back plan, it might make shorty a little nervous. In my case I will just wait for the next low to buy more NVS shares for the long haul.
Right now, investors are dumping anything European, which is causing proportionally more share-price weakness for NVS than for other Big Pharma.
NVS lays off 1,400 in US sales organization: #msg-57234844.
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