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this is long term for me now..will keep buying at this price level.
always long lines here in Broomfield, Colorado, close to company headquarters
Isreal
It's getting closer to your price now, good luck with it. Glad I sold when I did.
Alright this company is not hitting its targets. I still think my $15 PT is a decent valuation but no eps growth this year
good luck to you all, I'm on to other stocks- but will keep this one on my watch list.
place was packed and had a wait outside the door this Saturday.
location 120th ave and vrain st.
Broomfield, Colorado
100 shares a good place to start at , has it hit bottom and ready for a trip up?
yes nice to see some green days back to back. May have gone higher but the overall mkts pulled back a bit in the afternoon, which may have slowed it a bit. Hope this continues on up.
We're getting some good action higher here
nice to hear the restaurant was packed in Columbus. Wish we had one around here. I'd like to see rsi go above 50 next week and this start making a nice move up.
I wouldn't mind it being a bottom, but I also wouldn't mind my $15 strike being activated. I want in at the right price.
Just ate at noodles this weekend and checked out the new buff bowls. The restaurant in Columbus was packed!
maybe this is the bottom finally :) We shall see soon enough.
No problem. I am an investor that likes to take profit at 20-30% gains, so selling $22.50 calls in Ndls would be attractive to me because that's 30% higher then today's price. Really if you know as an investor what you want simple options are perfect. I don't do Straddles or vertical spreads
thanks for the breakdown. I'll need more education in the options arena before I go that route, but I can see where it could be very profitable for those with that expertise. Buying shares as I do probably isn't always the best way to do a trade, but its the only way for me at this time. Thanks for taking the time to explain your trading strategy for NDLS and options in general.
If NDLS never goes below $15 from now until Jan 16 then I never get to own the shares but I keep the $160 cash.
Options have value because of time to expiration.. The closer it is to Jan16 (or the further Ndls goes away from $15) the option will be worth less. So if Ndls goes to $20 that option I sold for $160 cash would probably be worth $40 cash, depending on what time in the year it was.
Same goes for selling calls. If you sell the Jan 16 call of $22.50 a share, you will get $150 cash today but forfeit any upside above $22.50 because you will be forced to sell at that price.
It limits your downside by collecting a premium but also limits your upside.
ok appreciate the breakdown, here is a question...what happens if NDLS goes up from here and stays above 20.00 as of the time your bet expires Jan 15, 2016? I'm guessing you could do things before then, but what might you do and how do the dollars figure into it? Thanks again.
My bet:
I sold a $15 put that expires Jan 15th 2016 giving me the obligation to buy Ndls at $15 if it went below that price.
In return I got $160 cash up front.
Another way to think of it is being able to buy 100 shares of Ndls at $15-1.60= $13.40 a share.
What I think could be a good option for you is to sell calls around $22 that will pay you around $120 (I would have to double check) and they expire in Jan 16. Meaning you will be paid $120 cash today but obligated to sell 100 shares of your Ndls ownership at $22 a share if it went above that.
since I've yet to delve into option trading pls explain in the simplest terms your bet, and how how it works and how long it is in play. Thanks
Yeah the option market is interesting on this one. I believe there were some $21 jan calls going for $1.50. I could buy 100 shares and sell calls for the income in case it takes longer then a few months to get back in the 20s.
still 4.27 mil shares short as of the 3/13/15 bi-monthly short report. Not down much at all compared with the 2/27/15 report which shows 4.28 million.
this has not reacted like most of the bounce plays I enter. There has been no higher vol bounce at all so far after the millions of shares sold on the day of the drop.
Sold a $15 put for $160 today giving me the obligation to buy at $15. I was going to do that anyway so it's a win win.
one of their analysts recently said MBLY wouldn't make it past 40 either. Who cares?
Analyst on CNBC just said Ndls is a good stock to dump and forget about.
I can't help but remember the millions of shares that changed hands in the 20.00-21.50 range. I'm going to stay patient and wait on that bounce, if it ever comes.
It seems pretty trade bound between 18.50 and 17. It might take another earnings before it bounces or drops more.
closed above the 10 day MA for the first time in a while so that's encouraging. Need to start making up some of the ground that was lost on that drop. 20.00-21.00 range would be a nice start in the next week or so.
am in several so wasn't watching this as closely yesterday, but it did drop toward the end of the day. It seems like I saw a 50k or so amt show at the end, and I have no idea if it was a total of prior trades from earlier in the day or toward the end when it dropped. Started out ok then fizzled late in the session unfortunately. Trying to be patient with NDLS. Still waiting for that bounce :)
That drop at the close today must've been a block trade.
I saw the article posted this morning. A writers opinion, and if you agree cool. As long as I do well here in the end it doesn't matter what we call it.
NDLS a swing trade stock now.
Still waiting for this to do something besides drop down lower. Strange that it never gave any kind of real bounce after the drop. I'll stay with it for now. Good luck.
I'm thinking about selling may15 puts currently going for about $1. That will take my cost average to $14 a share if it's exercised or I'll bank the $100 cash.
Low vol day here overall. Still looking for a bounce :)
I thought maybe you had been following this one a while. You have a plan are sticking to it which is great. The bottom bounce plays I've been in recently that produced and were quick profit makers were FOSL and YELP. This one has been slow and not bounced like I thought it would. Happens sometimes.
I tried to get in the IPO but wasn't able to, and I was never able to justify the PE to buy in. Looking at predicted future cash flows and earnings at $18 it trades at 30X 2016 earnings.. Which is fair for this small growing company. However because the same store sales haven't been as high as their competitors we need a little cheaper pps to buy in 2015. That's why $15 looks good to me.
The CEO buying is also a good sign.
How long have you been watching this one looking for that pps?
Lol.. I just wish this thing would go to $15 so I can buy it already! It's too expensive at $20 for another year.
Yeah, maybe it will happen soon. From the looks of it not really a bad day either on low vol. Let's see how it plays out the rest of the week. Took a bad fall today on the ice, which hurt a lot more than this being down 1.7% :)
Can't seem to get those two straight up days.
maybe this time we get that bounce. A few consecutive green days would be nice.
even a dead cat bounce gives more than that little up day yesterday. Another ugly day for NDLS unfortunately.
Looks like it was a dead cat bounce.
Sure hope it does go much higher. Its a start.
Good bounce but will it stick?
as of right now the chart is starting to look encouraging. Let's see how the rest of the day goes.
I'm watching for something encouraging....like a hammer candle from which this can start a move back up :) I mean this didn't react quite like I thought it would so I got in a little early. In the case of PIR I had 2 chances to catch the very bottom and waited, thinking it would drop more the next day at open, and sat there flat footed and missed the bounce altogether. I enjoy playing stocks off the bottom but getting it exactly right isn't easy. Good luck whatever you decide.
Either way your $19 shares should be fairly valued next year, so if it gets bad at least you can wait it out. Part of me thinks I should start a position now because it should go up eventually. The shorts have come in and it's not going down much yet.
thanks, still waiting for this to finally level off and start moving back up. Ave is under 19.50 now, and may add one more time if it drops today. Sooner or later I would think a bounce is due imo.
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Noodles & Company Prices Its Initial Public Offering
“Noodles is an attractive, early stage growth company with strong unit economics and a unique value proposition for consumers, but scarcity has chased valuation beyond where we think fundamentals offer much upside. We see a balanced Risk/Reward and initiate with an EW rating…Early stage fast casual growth company in unique ‘category of one’ (no direct competitors of scale). First fast casual IPO since CMG creates scarcity value. Rapid unit growth. From its current ~350 store base, we see the opportunity to expand to 2,500 units nationally. Unit growth rate of 12-14% over next few years among fastest in retail. Strong unit economics, led by naturally low food costs and modest build out costs, produce 30%+ cash-on-cash returns.,” the firm’s analyst wrote. (July 25, 2013)
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