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Management issues seem to be the cause.
That’s a good idea. Yeah it’s solid.
Looks like BDI ready to B/O.
The only thing that perplexes me is the correlation of the BDI to Navios history.
IE, In 2014, NM was trading around 11, but with the BDI more than half the way to that point, NM is having trouble getting out of its own way.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NM&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99433924615
BDI: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND (click on the 5Y chart)
Dryships website used to have a good one but they updated the site and it looks like they dropped it.
Y, I use Bloomberg as well.
I’ve been using Bloomberg. What about you?
Haven’t done a deep dive yet but didn’t see anything substantial. What about you?
Jet,,,What IYO is the best site to view a current BDI ???
Hey Jet, there were two SC 13D/A's filed. Do you see anything interesting in them???
BDI freight rates will be the primary determinant of the failure or survival of NM.
I'm betting that the rates will continue to jog higher as the world economy continues to improve and further dig itself out of the 2008-9 market crash.
This BDI recovery has been trumpeted by many more dry bulk shippers than NM alone, and from the numbers and the world news, I tend to believe them.
As long as the BDI continues its recovery, so will the fortunes of NM.
I'm betting that NM will succeed, although of this I am uncertain. I advise all concerned investors do as I do in these circumstances.
Carefully monitor the trend of the BDI, and do it as carefully as you would the price of oil if you are invested in any one of the oil and gas E&Ps.
Very good points. I think there is definitely a bottom forming in shipping. There is room for a lot of consolidation. The R/S Kings repeatedly burn investors. It’s no solution if you ask me.
Jet, thanks for your input.
Personally speaking,,,I don't worry about shortterms.
I've been buying shares on occasion for several years now.
many of the shippers have been buying distressed assets(ships) from defunct companies rather than newbuilds, which oughtta help contain the glut.
IMO, now is the time to accum shares of the good ones and I still consider NM a good one. It should do well when rates are better because of its size.
Many of the shippers(DRYS, TOPS, etc), have done R/S and that makes me nuts.
Because of this however, their O/S are low and the shorterm traders have a ball with them.
I'm not a shortterm trader by any stretch,,,lol.
NM should post better Dry Bulk Segment results in Q4. It is a bit early to predict NM's Q4 results, since many of its vessels are pegged to daily rates in various rate classes, but it is unlikely to generate more than about $10 million in free cash.
The problem is that Q4 will be the strongest quarter for the year, and the first half of 2018 results will likely be lower, barring an unseasonable rebound in rates.
Dunno, but support line broke at 1.46, now resistance.
They just did a placement so I don't expect dilution.
I'm hoping they lowered it and took out stops to let someone big in.
Time will tell I guess.
Chart w/tech lines'
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=nm
Article from The Street.com:
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/11/12/2017/3-safe-haven-stocks-buy-amid-tax-reform-uncertainties?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo
MONACO, Nov. 09, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Navios Maritime Containers Inc. (“Navios Containers”) (N-OTC:NMCI), a growth vehicle dedicated to the container sector, announced today that it has closed the private placement of common shares as announced on November 7, 2017.
Some dilution and mebee why the poor recent performance:
Navios Containers issued 9,090,909 common shares for an aggregate of $50.0 million of gross proceeds at a subscription price of $5.50 per common share. Navios Containers intends to use the net proceeds to partially finance the acquisition of four 2008-built baby Panamax containerships for an agreed price of $96.8 million and for general working capital.
Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (“Navios Partners”) invested $10.0 million in the private placement and currently owns approximately 34% of the outstanding share capital. Each of Navios Partners and Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. also received warrants, with a five-year term, for 6.8% and 1.7% of the newly issued equity, respectively. The offer shares will be tradable on N-OTC today, November 9, 2017.
Clarksons Platou Securities AS and Fearnley Securities AS acted as Lead Managers and Bookrunners in the Private Placement, and S. Goldman Advisors LLC acted as Structuring Advisor.
Very positive I? agree. Shipping is at historical lows but sentiment is changing. Doing more DD here to determine catalyst for valuation. I? think debt levels are biggest concerns thus far. But value prop seems strong here.
Well, that should be good. Why is NM in the pits . The street should be starting to suck up shares because of EU resurgence, IMO
Revenue from dry bulk vessel operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2017 was $171.8 million as compared to $142.9 million for the same period during 2016. The increase in dry bulk revenue was mainly attributable to (i) the increase in TCE per day; and (ii) an increase in available days of our fleet.
Another est increase from TDAMTD: Change in Consensus Earnings Estimate
============================================================
EPS estimate up $0.02 to $-0.23 for quarter ending 9/2017
NM Navios Maritime Holdings Inc
Last Price $1.80
Last Update 9:00am ET
Change 0.00 (0.00%)
Open $0.00
Prev Close $1.80
Day Range -- - --
P/E Ratio --
Volume 15,000
Quarter Ending 9/2017
# Estimates 3
Current Est $-0.23
Prev $-0.25
Range $-0.26- $-0.18
Current Rec Hold
Prev Underperform
Range Sell- Strong Buy
From TDAMTD:
Change in Consensus Earnings Estimate
============================================================
EPS estimate up $0.013 to $-0.25 for quarter ending 9/2017
NM bustamove sooooon???
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4108051-dry-bulk-recovery-focus-iron-ore?ifp=0&app=1
Yeah, I've been in it for that long as well, been adding and have an avg of 1.85.
I have been in NM for going on three years, also have NNA and NM preferred "G". As the day rates continue to increase and fuel decreases it should help NM get back. IMHO seeing $3.50 in a year is doable. But my long term expectations are for $7 within two years. All JMHO. Also continued recovery in Europe could add to NM earnings and benefit the pps further.
Mebee with the EU doing better weeeel get a lift soon.
Lol, I'm here, but not much going on. I'm a long term, patient guy.
$$NM$$
I must be the only one here anymore,,,lol.
I have a new target line to 2.30 pps.
https://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u=FOQxSEaJg%2B%2Bylfl96xWNAPN1h5uqg216&kslash=s
"We are delighted to report revenue and Adjusted EBITDA of $118.6 million and $31.3 million, respectively, for the second quarter of 2017." $$$NM$$$
Navios(NM) announced that they are releasing results on Tues. 8/22 instead of 8/24.
Hmmm, mebbe moving up the results is a good thing???
Time will tell.
NM broke above its symetrical triangle on 8/14. Bullish move IMO.
S&P rated stable the other day.
All we need is a glimmer of hope on the P/E stage and NM oughtta start getting upgrades, etc.
Personally I'm looking for $4 by EOY into 2018.
I've been adding when I can.
Of course if the numbers start looking better,,, the DRYS's of the world will go wild,,,lol.
D - sorry for the tardy reply. I see no reason for the spike in volume, but also see nothing to worry about. They are in a very good position vs the competition. NM to win!
Bayguy,,,whats with all that vol on Fri at the close???
I saw 5+ mill go through on a red bar,,,Co. dump???
What's your thoughts?
I saw no news or filings!!!
Good post. This is the place to be!
Amid signs of life in global shipping, some stocks score big gains
Jun. 10, 2017 9:15 AM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
The shipping industry - after struggling for years with overcapacity, price wars and freight rates far below breakeven levels - finally is showing signs of recovery, according to a WSJ analysis.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3272764-amid-signs-life-global-shipping-stocks-score-big-gains?uprof=9#email_link
Catch the wave,,,it's coming!!!
Navios is very well positioned for a EURO rebound, as they have been acquiring and adding vessels at a brisk clip.
I would say so. I am waiting for NMM to catch up.
NM $2 possible next week ;)
NM doing well since $1.00 bottom
Many of the shippers have been adding vessels via buying up assets, new builds, etc.
No doubt they are positioning for a worldwide expansion of shipping.
The movement is still consolidating and NOW is the time to buy IMO.
Buy time! NM is cash rich - look for reinstatement of dividend. Way over-corrected. $$$
Not with my money.
NM Time to buy this one brosif
In-case anyone has been following NM's credit ratings,,,they have been improving as of late Friday(5/26), as Moody's has bumped them up.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-revises-Navios-Logistics-outlook-to-stable--PR_367157?WT.mc_id=AM~WWFob29fRmluYW5jZV9TQl9SYXRpbmcgTmV3c19BbGxfRW5n~20170526_PR_367157&yptr=yahoo
Also, this morning (Monday,5/29) S&P has improved their rating on NM.
https://invest.ameritrade.com/grid/p/site#r=jPage/https://research.ameritrade.com/grid/wwws/research/stocks/news/article?c_name=invest_VENDOR&docKey=1-DN20170529001172-6CVS2OIG3NHILHRQQVURGTMP4V
Press Release: S&PGR Revises Navios Maritime Holdings Outlook To Stable
7:17 am ET May 29, 2017 (Dow Jones) Print
The following is a press release from Standard & Poor's:
-- The Marshall Islands-registered shipping company Navios Maritime
Holdings' liquidity position has improved, mainly thanks to the recovery of
drybulk shipping rates.
-- Furthermore, the arbitration tribunal ruling in favor of Navios
Logistics (a subsidiary of Navios Maritime Holdings) concerning its major
contract with Vale S.A. removed the cash flow uncertainty in the logistics
operations.
-- We are revising our outlook on Navios Maritime Holdings to stable from
negative, and affirming the rating on the company at 'B-'.
-- The stable outlook reflects our view that Navios Maritime Holdings'
free cash flow generation will at least break even this year and its liquidity
position will stabilize in the next 12 months, thanks to gradually improving
drybulk charter rates, EBITDA expansion of Navios Logistics, and the company's
competitive and predictable cost structure.
LONDON (S&P Global Ratings) May 29, 2017--S&P Global Ratings said today that
it had revised its outlook on Marshall Islands-registered shipping company
Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (Navios Holdings) to stable from negative. At
the same time we affirmed the issuer credit rating at 'B-'.
We also affirmed our 'B-' issue rating on the company's senior secured debt.
The recovery rating is unchanged at '3', reflecting our expectation of
meaningful (50%-70%) recovery in the case of a payment default (rounded
estimate: 65%).
We also affirmed our 'CCC' issue rating on the company's senior unsecured
debt. The recovery rating is unchanged at '6', reflecting our expectation of
negligible recovery (0%-10%) in the event of a payment default (rounded
estimate: 0%).
The outlook revision reflects Navios Holdings' improved liquidity position,
mainly reflecting drybulk shipping rates that have rebounded from their
historical lows over the past few quarters. For example the one-year time
charter rate for a large Capesize vessel averaged $13,000 per day (/day) in
January-May 2017, up from $7,300/day in 2016, according to Clarkson Research.
This will bolster the company's cash flow generation in the next 12 months.
Furthermore, the arbitration tribunal ruling that the major contract with Vale
S.A. (BBB-/Positive/--) was in full force and effect, in the favor of Navios
South American Logistics Inc.'s ("Navios Logistics", Navios Holdings'
63.8%-owned subsidiary), removed the cash flow uncertainty in the logistics
operations. Under the take-or-pay contract, Navios Logistics will generate a
minimum of $35 million in annual EBITDA for handling 4 million tons of iron
ore via its port terminal in Uruguay for Vale for 20 years (starting in the
third quarter of this year).
Founded in 1954 as a subsidiary of U.S. Steel, Navios Holdings controls a
fleet of 66 drybulk vessels (of which 40 are owned and 26 chartered-in) and
provides transportation and logistics services in South America (Hydrovia
region).
We have revised upward our assessment of Navios Holdings' stand-alone credit
profile to 'b-' from 'ccc+'. This reflects the improved cash flow generation
prospects, mainly because of recovered charter rates in Navios Holdings' core
drybulk shipping business, supported by the narrowing industry
demand-and-supply imbalance, complemented by the company's proactively lowered
cost breakeven rates, working capital optimization and efficiency measures,
and limited capital spending requirements after Navios Logistics completed the
expansion of port terminal in South America. Furthermore, the agreement with
Vale to perform under the contract's terms adds to cash flow predictability.
We anticipate drybulk charter rates to recalibrate to more sustainable (above
their operating breakeven) levels in 2017, based on promising demand dynamics
so far this year for iron ore and coal from Asia (which is by far the largest
global importing region of iron ore and coal) and industry supply-side
adjustments. In our view, the recent notable improvement in charter rates from
the fourth quarter of 2016 (albeit following record lows seen in early 2016)
is vulnerable to uncertain sustainability of commodity imports from China, in
particular. Nevertheless, our expectations of slowing global fleet expansion
in 2017 and 2018, combined with sustained low-single-digit trade growth, will
likely result in an overall improvement in rates this year. We believe that
this trend will continue into 2018 when persistent vessel scrapping, deferral
or cancellation of ships on order, and limited contracting of new tonnage will
likely curtail supply pressure. Against this backdrop, we forecast that Navios
Holdings will achieve a free operating cash flow breakeven this year, which
incorporates the company's continued working capital optimization measures.
This compares with a cash balance of about $141 million on Dec. 31, 2016.
Navios Holdings' business risk profile mainly reflects the company's weak
profitability on the back of below-industry-average return on capital metrics
and relatively high volatility of profitability compared with the broader
transportation industry. We also factor in the shipping industry's high risk,
which stems from the industry's capital intensity, high fragmentation,
frequent imbalances between demand and supply, lack of meaningful supply
discipline, and volatility in charter rates and vessel values.
Positives are Navios Holdings' competitive position, which benefits from its
expanding and more predictable-than-traditional-shipping transportation and
logistics business in South America; its holdings in affiliates, which pay
dividends under normal operating conditions; and its solid reputation as a
quality operator of a relatively young and cost-efficient vessel fleet
underpinned by a good grip on cost efficiencies and control, as reflected in
below the industry-average daily vessel operating costs.
Our assessment of Navios Holdings' financial risk profile incorporates the
company's high adjusted debt, which reflects the underlying industry's high
capital intensity, the company's track record of large expansionary
investments, and a prolonged period of depressed charter rates, and which will
result in average credit measures commensurate with the lower end of our
highly leveraged category in 2017-2018.
We analyze Navios Holdings and the Marshall Islands-registered oil- and oil
product shipping company Navios Acquisition on an integrated basis because of
their linked business relationships. Navios Holdings owns 46.1% of Navios
Acquisitions. In September 2016, Navios Acquisition provided a two-year,
8.75%, $70 million secured revolving credit facility to Navios Holdings for
general corporate purposes. Crude tanker owner and operator Navios Maritime
Midstream Partners L.P. (Navios Midstream), 59%-owned unconsolidated affiliate
of Navios Acquisition, also falls under the group credit profile (GCP) because
of the entities' material business interactions, as signified by Navios
Acquisition's extension of a de facto rate guarantee for Navios Midstream's
vessels. We determine the GCP of 'b' as the weighted average of the
creditworthiness of the group members Navios Holdings, Navios Acquisition, and
Navios Midstream.
The stable outlook reflects our view that Navios Holdings' free cash flow
generation will be at least break even this year and its liquidity position
will stabilize for the next 12 months, thanks to gradually improving drybulk
charter rates, increased EBITDA at Navios Logistics, and Navios Holdings'
competitive and predictable cost structure. We furthermore incorporate our
view that the GCP will remain unchanged.
We could downgrade Navios Holdings if its efforts to stabilize its liquidity
are ineffective and if we consider its liquidity sources-to-uses ratio will
fall below 1.0x, constituting a likely default risk within the next 12 months.
In particular, we think this might happen due to an unexpected drop in drybulk
charter rates below our base-case forecast or inability to refinance the
unsecured bond due February 2019 in a timely manner.
Furthermore, an unlikely material deterioration of Navios Acquisition's cash
flow generation and liquidity, resulting in a downward revision of the GCP to
'ccc+', would squeeze Navios Holdings' creditworthiness.
An upgrade could follow if Navios Holdings' free cash flow generation turns
firmly positive, liquidity position stabilizes so that the sources to uses
shortfall is remote, and adjusted FFO to debt strengthens sustainably to above
6.0%. This would be possible in the medium term if drybulk charter rates
perform consistently with our base-case forecast and Navios Holdings gradually
reduces debt. However, we consider debt reduction as unlikely in the next 12
months, given Navios Holdings' confirmed appetite for opportunistic
debt-funded vessel acquisitions.
I'm guessing that as soon as one of them posts decent numbers for once they'll all start to move again.
Question is: when will that be.
They all seem to be positioning for a ramp with all the R/S's and buying distressed assets, etc.
NM as well as many other shippers are in refinance mode, my guess for the coming ramp in biz for europe.
NM does seem like their financing is less toxic then many others.
Their last deal was to sell shares, but at $5/shr.
Their pps at the time was around 1.60, so thats quite a premium.
Mebee, and if the creek don't rise, we can get a push to that $5 mark in the coming weeks.
I'm ready,,,lol.
Yeah man, I hear ya.
That news release I posted, was NM selling those shares for $5 bucks a share.
$5 bucks a share would do my portfolio nice,,,lol.
Gonna take time, but the shippers are positioning themselves now for the coming Euro expansion.
Hell, my Greek bank(NBGGY) is even starting to move up(up 75% this year from.20).
Just a matter of time bruddah.
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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NM)
http://www.navios.com/home.asp
Quotes & News
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=NM+NM-WT
Profile
Navios Maritime Holdings Inc.
85 Akti Miouli Street
Piraeus, 185 38
Greece - Map
Phone: 30 210 41 72 050
Fax: 30 210 41 72 070
Web Site: http://www.navios.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=NM
Navios Maritime Holdings, Inc., a seaborne shipping company, offers carriage, trading, storing, and other related logistics for international dry bulk cargo transportation. As of December 31, 2006, Navios owned 10 Ultra-Handymax (50,000 dwt-55,000 dwt), 9 Panamax (70,000 dwt-83,000 dwt), 1 Capesize (approximately 100,000 dwt) and 1 Handysize (10,000 dwt-30,000 dwt) product tanker vessels. It also time charters in and operates a fleet of 4 Ultra-Handymax, 1 Handysize, 14 Panamax, and 5 Capesize vessels under long-term time charters. The company serves raw materials producers, agricultural traders and exporters, industrial end-users, shipowners, and charterers. It also owns and operates bulk transfer and storage port facility in Uruguay. The company was formerly known as Nautilus Maritime Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Navios Maritime Holdings, Inc. in 2003. The company is headquartered in Piraeus, Greece.
Contact Information
Primary IR Contact
Thomas J. Rozycki, Jr.
Vice President
Cubitt Jacobs & Prosek Communications
Phone: 212-279-8820
Email: investors@navios.com
Transfer Agent:
Continental Stock Transfer & Trust Company
17 Battery Place • New York, NY 10004
212.509.4000
E-Mail General – cstmail @continentalstock.com
Shares Outstanding: 95.748M
Float: 72.489M
BDI Rates
http://www.skaarupshipbrokers.com/index.php
Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) & Freight Rates
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. Price Target
12/2007 20.06 37.36%
12/2008 28.42 94.60%
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/research/wizards/SRWTarget.asp?Symbol=NM
PRICE TARGET SUMMARY
Mean Target: 14.10
Median Target: 16.00
High Target: 17.00
Low Target: 6.50
No. of Brokers: 5
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=NM
1 month daily chart
6 month daily chart
2 year weekly chart
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