National Energy Group (fka NEGI)

[universaltrader]

Looking for huge news on the 15th
this is just starting to get interesting

[macdrsirules]

Still trying to figure this one out. Huge dividend, shell company with a lot of cash and a good past, nice acquisitions to come with the cash they have no doubt. PPS after divi of around 3.00 or so. Carl Icahn owning over 50% indirectly. Very low OS and even lower float. I missed the oppurtunity to get in just after the beginning of Feb.

Any thoughts?

[oklavalue]

Ok. Let me get this straight. On 2-15 I receive $3.31 special div, and there remains $4+ in the company that is managed by a colleague of Carl Icahn? If this is true, why on earth is NEGI selling at a discount to its cash? Am I missing something? If not then NEGI seems preposterously undervalued at $6.12.

[JimProfit]

no, if you buy on the 15th you still get the divi, the first day you buy without the right to receive the divi is the 16th...

[copleybmt]

I thought you had to buy 3 days before the 15th to be sure it settles.

[JimProfit]

http://www.earnings.com/company.asp?client=cb&ticker=hma

[Squeegee_1]

Jim, where are you pulling the data from for the ex-date? I need a source other than AMTD.

[macdrsirules]

Transfer agent states OS is indeed 11,190,650. Also just over 50% of OS is held by affiliates of Mr. Carl C Icahn. The remaining shares are float. So the info in the IBOX is correct.

[JimProfit]

OT: HMA also has a big divi coming:

 
 SYMBOL     AMOUNT    EX-DATE    PAYABLE       RECORD 	 
 HMA        $10.000   2-Mar-07   1-Mar-07      27-Feb-07 
 

[originunknown]

Thanks JimProfit!

[JimProfit]

NEGI $3.310 EX-DATE: 16-Feb-07

you can buy on the 15th and still get the divi and safely sell on the 16th if you want to...

http://www.fulldisclosure.com/company.asp?client=cb&ticker=negi

[JimProfit]

OT:

yep, i'm always on the lookout for these ;)

[originunknown]

Very interesting ... thanks for heads up.

[Argyll]

Carl Icahn is "indirect" majority owner of NEGI -- 50.01%.

[Squeegee_1]

Maybe we could track down some other similar dividend plays...

The range in the last week has been fantastic and this special dividend/distribution probably plays out this way quite a bit.

Hmmmmm

[JimProfit]

Dividends Or Distributions 25 Percent Or Greater Than Security Value

The second method, under subparagraph (b)(2) of Rule 11140, provides
that for dividends or distributions that are 25 percent or greater of
the value of the subject security, the ex-date shall be the first
business day following the payable date.

For example, if an issuer has announced August 10 as the record date
and August 31 as the payable date, then the ex-date will be September 1,
the first business day after the payable date.
In this example, September 1 is the day on or after which a buyer would
purchase the security without the dividend and, therefore, the day on
which the price of the stock is adjusted downward.
In this example, a seller of the security on August 15, even though the
holder of record to receive the dividend, would have to relinquish the
dividend to the buyer.
Indeed, because the value of the security on August 15 has not yet been
adjusted downward to reflect the dividend distribution, the seller in
this example would be unjustly enriched by keeping the dividend.

The seller would have received the value of the dividend twice: first,
as fully reflected in the unadjusted price of the stock on August 15;
and secondly, as subsequently paid by the company to record date holders.

© 2000, National Association of Securities Dealers, Inc. (NASD).

[Squeegee_1]

I gave people more credit than to sell out of ignorance.

You were right. Just curious if you were right for the correct reason... Yesterday and today were insignifigant days other than the PR said the date of record was the 1st. Every share that was sold today was also sold with it's accompanying dividend.

The majority of the selloff was below 6.00 and here we close at 6.35.

Thanks for the cheapies guys!!!

[macdrsirules]

See my message 24 and previous ones. I thought this was a strong possibility.

[Squeegee_1]

JimProfit, I think you hit the nail on the head!
Survival of the fittest!

[JimProfit]

uneducated ppl think they can sell now and still get the divi...
this dive was/is a buying op! imho

[caneman]

Ouch!!!
Taking a beating today. I thought it would keep goin up until the x date??? If it hits 5.5 I might have to double down.

[JimProfit]

i would love to see their faces when they realize what happened ;)

[JimProfit]

shhhhhhh... don't tell them yet ;)

[Squeegee_1]

People selling NEGI before the 15th will be sadly surprised to learn they will not participate in the 3.31 cash distribution. Again, confirm this with a licensed broker!

[macdrsirules]

Read this

I have been looking at the recent 8-k's and realized that this company is technically classified as a shell. A shell that has alot of cash. It just became that way very late last year.

Read the 8-k's for all the info.

I have heard that acquisitions will be announced soon, so they will not be considered a shell very soon. I seriously doubt their EPS will be much this year.

I will get more info as I can.

[macdrsirules]

I was referring to traders who may think they will still receive the dividend since they held till the Feb. 1st and sell their shares. You never know what people are thinking.

Anyway here is the best I can find about the last day that you can buy and still receive the dividend.

"Dividends Or Distributions
25 Percent Or Greater Than
Security Value
The second method, under
subparagraph (b)(2) of Rule 11140,
provides that for dividends or
distributions that are 25 percent or
greater of the value of the subject
security, the ex-date shall be the
first business day following the
payable date. For example, if an
issuer has announced August 10 as
the record date and August 31 as
the payable date, then the ex-date
will be September 1, the first
business day after the payable
date. In this example, September 1
is the day on or after which a buyer
would purchase the security without
the dividend and, therefore, the day
on which the price of the stock is
adjusted downward. In this
example, a seller of the security on
August 15, even though the holder
of record to receive the dividend,
would have to relinquish the
dividend to the buyer. Indeed,
because the value of the security
on August 15 has not yet been
adjusted downward to reflect the
dividend distribution, the seller in
this example would be unjustly
enriched by keeping the dividend.
The seller would have received the
value of the dividend twice: first, as
fully reflected in the unadjusted
price of the stock on August 15;
and secondly, as subsequently paid
by the company to record date
holders.

[hiphopfurby]

If i bought today would i get the dividend? I am confused about this. If I bought today I would not be on the record as a shareholder. One needs to buy at least one day before the EX-DIV date to make the shareholder or record list.

I know the rules are different in this dividend distribution because the payout is higher than 25%. Since the dividend is over 25% the EX-DATE is after the payout date.

But up till what day can someone buy the stock and still be guaranteed to receive the dividend?


http://www.nasd.com/web/groups/rules_regs/documents/notice_to_members/nasdw_003997.pdf

[Squeegee_1]

It's not necessary to argue with me.... Im just the messenger and that is how this particular divy will be handled. Call your broker for further details.

Happy Trading

[koolmc]

Wrong, noi always the case check wtmk it opened the same price on ex date as it did on payable date, this may be true for higher exchanges but otc not really the case

[macdrsirules]

They are right here in Dallas so I will make some contact with them and let you guys know anything I find out. I'll be out most of the day. Talk to you guys later.

[macdrsirules]

I think it is way undervalued. EPS is over 3 bucks a share. PE is less than 2. Industry average is around 13.

[Squeegee_1]

There will not be a price drop on the 2nd. The ex-dividend date is the 16th. The price will open on the 16th at the 15th's close minus $3.31. This is actually a cash distribution...

Also, keep in mind that the company recently sold 1.5 billion in assets and included the upper management team. Essentially, NEGI is a debt free shell company with around 50 million in the bank after the dividend, a proven CEO and ready to made some big steps forward.

IMO this stock is undervalued until the pps reaches 7.50 to 8.00 and it should be treated as a buying opportunity right up to the 15th.


50 million cash / 11,200,000 OS = 4.46 cash value after dividend

4.46 + 3.31 = $7.77 target price before the 15th

All in my own opinion and happy trading
Squeegee

[macdrsirules]

Has anybody even looked at this stock from a basic fundamental perspective? Hell the P/E industry average is 13.18!!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=NEGI.OB

EPS is 3.628!!!(TTM) Which makes it trading at a P/E of less than 2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am beginning to think that folks do not know what they have here. I hope this SOB drops after FEB.2 as I will sink major bucks into this and still get the divi. You should be able to buy before Feb. 15 and still get the divy!

Carl Icahn is in this thing from what I can tell with my 15 minute research session tonight. Looks like a gigantic fundamental play to me.

Any comments?

[Squeegee_1]

Talked to Bob Alexander, CEO 3 days ago and they have 2 major deals they are working on. Keep in mind that this company is debt free, has 50 million in the bank and a proven track record in Bob...

The cash alone is worth a pps of around 4.50 and CEO agrees.

Whatever the share price is on the 15th will determine the opening price on the 16th minus $3.31 a share.

Today's closing price was $6.70 minus the $3.31 gives us a current adjusted pps of $3.39. Well short of the cash value of $4.50.

I suspect there is some covering going on in the market on short positions and unreported "Fails to Deliver." Cash is king and the market can't just cook up cash dividends like they can with shares, so by the 15th I expect to only see the legitimate float on the street.

The enormous increase in volume and "locked in" price from Monday and Tuesday, IMO had a lot to do with the short covering while the price was held in place to limit the exposure to the market participants that were covering.

The price increase we are seeing may be one of three things or a combination of all three.
1. An eminent acquisition taking place and people in the know positioning for the eventual news.
2. The price rising to the threshold mark to meet the cash value of the comapany: 4.50 + 3.31= $7.81pps
3. Short covering

As for me... I am looking for around a 7.50 to 8.00pps by the 15th and I will roll the cash dividend back into more shares at the lower price following the adjustment on the 16th. I expect some people to sell off shares after the dividend out of ignorance providing an excellent buying opportunity. I will sell my positions when the acquisition news comes out and everyone else is buying.

All in my opinion and Happy Trading!
Squeegee

BTW, ya'll realize the ex-dividend date is on the 16th, so you can by shares and get the dividend till the 15th. I know it sounds funky, but don't take my word.... call your broker and confirm for yourself.

[caneman]

let the dice roll. I'm just bummed because I wanted to take some cash out of this one today, but I gotta sit on it until the 16th.

[universaltrader]

like I said they need big news this will be interesting

[Argyll]

"...the price of the stock will drop by the amount of the divi on that date??"

A possibility. However the company will retain $50 million cash. Given 11.2 million shares that's a per share cash value of $4.46.
Plus they may move into other business opportunities.

[JimProfit]

theoretical yes, but maybe not.. place your bet ;)

[caneman]

I called scottrade and I was told the ex date is the 16th (suck) and that the price of the stock will drop by the amount of the divi on that date??

[universaltrader]

Don't you think thats what many people will do, to protect their investment? I will hold as long as I feel comfortable. What are you going to do JJ?

I predict this will run tomorrow and Thursday on this deadline. My reasoning tells me the day after the divi's are handed out (unless there is big news) People will sell.

[Argyll]

The ex-date is actually February 16th.

Special rules for dividends over 25% of security value.

http://www.nasd.com/web/groups/rules_regs/documents/notice_to_members/nasdw_003997.pdf

[Rock_E_Bottom]

LOL, so you guys are lining up to dump after the divi?

[universaltrader]

Clock is ticking down whos out on feb 2nd?

[Zardiw]

I wonder if you could play this using options.....et z

[Squeegee_1]

Divy Play and Chart below:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEGI&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p29700939346&a=9...

[JJSeabrook]

That's a MONSTER divvy. PR came out AH Monday. It's a 6.30 stock and I think it just didn't hit the radars. Hell, it can drop 50% and you're still green after the divvy. Lookin at the chart, doesn't look like it should drop much under 5.80, still leaving a very nice profit after the divvy.

EX date should be next Tuesday. You'd have to buy it by Monday, 1/29, in order to be a holder for Thursday, 2/1 and get the divvy. Should trade Ex dividend on Tuesday, 1/30, but that date has not been set yet and that may be what's keeping the buyers out.

Looks like a winner play to me.

JJ

Monday, January 22 2007 4:23 PM, EST

National Energy Group, Inc. Announces Cash Dividend to Be Paid on February 15, 2007

PR Newswire "US Press Releases "

DALLAS, Jan. 22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- National Energy Group, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: NEGI) ("NEGI" or the "Company") announced today that it has declared a one-time cash dividend on its outstanding common stock in the amount of $3.31 per share, or $37,041,051.50 in the aggregate, payable on February 15, 2007 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on February 1, 2007.

Forward Looking Statements

This press release may contain projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Any such projections or statements reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance. No assurances can be given, however, that these events will occur or that such projections will be achieved and actual results could differ materially from those projected. A discussion of important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected is included in the Company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

SOURCE National Energy Group, Inc.

[copleybmt]

Divy of over $3? What are your thoughts? Why?

[beigledog]

Do you still follow this company?

[Hacktheripper]

Welcome