National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)

[NewJerichoMan]

Credit Suisse Downgrades

https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Credit+Suisse+Downgrades+National+Beverage+%28FIZZ%29+to+Neutral/12799420.html

April 21, 2017

Credit Suisse downgraded National Beverage (NASDAQ: FIZZ) from Outperform to Neutral with a price target of $82.00 (from $75.00).

Analyst Laurent Grandet sees strong fundamentals being aided by LaCroix and notes that the current market has "surpassed what we would estimate it would be worth in a takeout".

[NewJerichoMan]

Can't believe this never pulled back. The beverage stock sector is hot, hot, hawt. As a super bull in this sector, I'm surprised I missed on this possibility.

[NewJerichoMan]

Noice.

I'm done predicting this stock for a while. My day trader's pattern got shaky yesterday. Done with the round-trippers after Day 4.

Latest grid on the short interest. Can't believe it basically remained unchanged 5 days after earnings were reported.

[OldAIMGuy]

Sold another increment of FIZZ the other day at $81.33. There's now a healthy cash reserve for this holding in case our fortunes reverse.

[NewJerichoMan]

At 9:45 the past couple days has been the low of the day. Made 3-round trips over the past 3 days, stealing a few nickels back, buying low and selling toward end of day.

I'm beginning to think this has gone beyond a short squeeze into someone big taking a position. That said, latest short info indicates that 5 days after earnings, the short interest basically remained unchanged.

[NewJerichoMan]

$80. Boy, am I regretting jumping off this train.

[NewJerichoMan]

I think the worm has finally done turned. Of course, this is coming from a guy that sold out 2 days and $4 ago.

[NewJerichoMan]

Swing and a miss.

[NewJerichoMan]

Or maybe it's not done.

[NewJerichoMan]

Gonna try and time it. Modest position in $FIZZ. Sold out this morning, a few nickels south of $74. I'm guessing the short squeeze is just about out of steam. Will buy back in before ex-dividend date.

[NewJerichoMan]

I may be slow but I eventually catch on.

They weren't weekly measurements but rather monthly.

$25.5M * 12 months = ~$305M run-rate.

An acquaintance told me La Croix was on a $350M run-rate, which given beverages typical seasonality, the Nielsen numbers make sense. They serve as the "canary in the coal mine", so to speak. Best of all: they're free.

http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/top10s.html


January Sales Below



February Sales Below

[NewJerichoMan]

If the jabonies that wrote that short piece still have over 2M shares short going into earnings, their is still some squeeze to come.

Share Volume
3/9/17 = 1.125M shares
3/10/17 = 900K shares

2.025M shares since earnings.

[NewJerichoMan]

A lot of the water gains has come at the expense of Low Calorie Colas (~25% decline over prior 5-year period) moreso than Regular Colas (~10% decline over same time period). This soda tax (especially on the West Coast) hits Regular Colas. This bodes very well for $FIZZ and a host of other like-kind products.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi NJM, Re: FIZZ and bottled water...........

On the news last night there was a note that bottled water has now surpassed carbonated soft drinks in sales.

Amazing.

[NewJerichoMan]

Latest Short % Numbers

Saw this on Twitter and updated the chart.

It's going to be a bad day, week, month, year... for anyone short.

[NewJerichoMan]

Credit Swiss raised their PT to $75.

Rolling again today.

Question now is can La Croix become a $1B product? How quickly?

Runway For Growth

“LaCroix currently has around 65 percent ACV with a muted presence in c-stores. In our view, this channel is one of the more difficult to penetrate and supply given its highly fragmented nature,” Grandet stated.

The analyst believes that there could be meaningful upside if National Beverage partnered with a distributor to expand LaCroix, particularly in c-stores.

“The additional margin provided by the c-store channel would compensate in our view for the additional cost a third party would likely charge for the service,” Grandet explained.

The EPS estimates for FY 2017, 2018 and 2019 have been raised.

[NewJerichoMan]

Had the IRI data and the macro trends favor $FIZZ so it's an easy call. Most every beverage company is doing gangbusters right now. It's hard to miss. Next up are the microcaps like $NBEV, $CELH, and perhaps $TRUU.

[OldAIMGuy]

That was a nice call you made at under $60. Congratulations.

Here's my history with it so far:

[NewJerichoMan]

Awesome tweet regarding $FIZZ

$FIZZ at a new 52w high after short/blog attack in Sept'16. Any more trolls wanna retweet my prior opinion that this is a tough short? https://t.co/bzCM0TQgWN

— Todd Fernandez (@PharmakoiBoy) March 9, 2017

[NewJerichoMan]

Revenues of $195M for the quarter. Company is reaching critical mass. Each dollar earned, more and more is dropping to the bottom line. Fixed costs are being dwarfed by sales. Top line only grew 20% but the bottom line doubled.

[NewJerichoMan]

They're unbelievably nice figures - emphasis on unbelievably.

I did some cross-checking with BEVNET and the IRI stats. The Nielsen numbers appear to be inflated by a multiple of at least 2.

[OldAIMGuy]

Thanks NJM, Those are nice looking figures.

[NewJerichoMan]

Can I change my mind?

Just saw this link on SA.

http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/top10s.html



$25M per week is huge. Doesn't mean every week is gonna be $25M but that also doesn't include sales outside the US, fruit juices, energy drinks, FAYGO, Shasta, etc.

Could mean that $FIZZ is a billion dollar company in 2017.

[OldAIMGuy]

Thanks for the thoughts.

[NewJerichoMan]

I'm not a fan of the owner and his son. I'm looking for a short-term hold because of the last promised divvy and the annual results should be stellar. After that, it'll be day-to-day as a stockholder for me.

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi NJM, Re: FIZZ targets............

I'm a long term holder of FIZZ (12/2014) but do trim and back-fill my holding over time. Right now I'm closer to trimming than back-filling. I last added shares to the account (12% more shares) last September when it was at $41.25 so am looking to harvest a bit of profit above $60+ from that buy.

[NewJerichoMan]

Fun, little tweet from Darren Rovell

La Croix is stealing market share with both hands $FIZZ Coke, Pepsico and Nestle can't find an answer (in the US market)

— Phil LaMothe (@PhiI_LaMothe) March 4, 2017

[NewJerichoMan]

Earnings should be out next week.

[NewJerichoMan]

Got my fill under $60 today. Let's see where the quarterly results take us.

[NewJerichoMan]

For me, I think the quarterly will produce good results and the final, promised dividend. I'm probably gonna ride that train. Then we'll look into shorting after that. Share structure leaves a lot to be desired and the short allegations of "cooked books" are probably true.

[NewJerichoMan]

The Philadelpha Sweetened Beverage Tax is doing a number on the industry. The tax is probably needed. But to make it legally defensible, it was written broadly. Any drink with sugar or a sugar substitute gets taxed, by the ounce, regardless of sugar content, to discourage over-consumption.

They wanted to discourage CSD consumption. They caught a lot of "better-for-you" products in its wake.

That's really here-nor-there for $FIZZ because La Croix is carrying their water.

[OldAIMGuy]

Amazing what that Short Seller's report did to volume yesterday:

[OldAIMGuy]

Been selling into strength with FIZZ for a while with the last sale of 10% of the position at $52.65.

Bought some shares back at $47.10 a month ago but bought more today while the price was being slashed. Today's addition was at $41.25 (about 17% more shares).



Short seller says there's strange things in the accounting.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13755483/1/national-beverage-fizz-stock-tumbles-after-short-seller-report.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

I guess we'll have to wait to see if this is true, an over-reaction or a short seller playing to his own hand.

[u238ed]

Buyout rumors...

[u238ed]

Why the move?

[stocktrademan]

$FIZZ recent news/filings

bullish 38.02

## source: finance.yahoo.com

$FIZZ charts

basic chart ## source: stockcharts.com



basic chart ## source: stockscores.com



big daily chart ## source: stockcharts.com



big weekly chart ## source: stockcharts.com



$FIZZ company information

## source: otcmarkets.com

Link: http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/company-info
Ticker: $FIZZ
OTC Market Place: Not Available
CIK code: 0000069891
Company name: National Beverage Corp.
Incorporated In: DE, USA

$FIZZ share structure

## source: otcmarkets.com

Market Value: $1,829,929,850 a/o Mar 01, 2016
Shares Outstanding: 46,433,135 a/o Dec 04, 2015
Float: Not Available
Authorized Shares: Not Available
Par Value: 0.01

$FIZZ extra dd links

Company name: National Beverage Corp.
## STOCK DETAILS ##
After Hours Quote (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/after-hours
Option Chain (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/option-chain
Historical Prices (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=FIZZ+Historical+Prices
Company Profile (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=FIZZ+Profile
Industry (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/in?s=FIZZ+Industry

## COMPANY NEWS ##
Market Stream (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/stream
Latest news (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/news - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=FIZZ+Headlines

## STOCK ANALYSIS ##
Analyst Research (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/analyst-research
Guru Analysis (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/guru-analysis
Stock Report (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/stock-report
Competitors (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/competitors
Stock Consultant (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/stock-consultant
Stock Comparison (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/stock-comparison
Investopedia (investopedia.com): http://www.investopedia.com/markets/stocks/FIZZ/?wa=0
Research Reports (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/research
Basic Tech. Analysis (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=FIZZ+Basic+Tech.+Analysis
Barchart (barchart.com): http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/FIZZ
DTCC (dtcc.com): http://search2.dtcc.com/?q=National+Beverage+Corp.&x=10&y=8&sp_p=all&sp_f=ISO-8859-1
Spoke company information (spoke.com): http://www.spoke.com/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&q=National+Beverage+Corp.
Corporation WIKI (corporationwiki.com): http://www.corporationwiki.com/search/results?term=National+Beverage+Corp.&x=0&y=0

## FUNDAMENTALS ##
Call Transcripts (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/call-transcripts
Annual Report (companyspotlight.com): http://www.companyspotlight.com/library/companies/keyword/FIZZ
Income Statement (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/financials?query=income-statement
Revenue/EPS (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/revenue-eps
SEC Filings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/sec-filings
Edgar filings (sec.gov): http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000069891&owner=exclude&count=40
Latest filings (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/filings
Latest financials (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/financials
Short Interest (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/short-interest
Dividend History (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/dividend-history
RegSho (regsho.com): http://www.regsho.com/tools/symbol_stats.php?sym=FIZZ&search=search
OTC Short Report (otcshortreport.com): http://otcshortreport.com/index.php?index=FIZZ
Short Sales (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/short-sales
Key Statistics (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=FIZZ+Key+Statistics
Insider Roster (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ir?s=FIZZ+Insider+Roster
Income Statement (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=FIZZ
Balance Sheet (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=FIZZ
Cash Flow (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cf?s=FIZZ+Cash+Flow&annual

## HOLDINGS ##
Major holdings (cnbc.com): http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/FIZZ/tab/8.1
Insider transactions (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=FIZZ+Insider+Transactions
Insider transactions (secform4.com): http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/FIZZ.htm
Insider transactions (insidercrow.com): http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp?company=FIZZ
Ownership Summary (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/ownership-summary
Institutional Holdings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/institutional-holdings
Insiders (SEC Form 4) (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/insider-trades
Insider Disclosure (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/insider-transactions

## SOCIAL MEDIA AND OTHER VARIOUS SOURCES ##
PST (pennystocktweets.com): http://www.pennystocktweets.com/stocks/profile/FIZZ
Market Watch (marketwatch.com): http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/FIZZ
Bloomberg (bloomberg.com): http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FIZZ:US
Morningstar (morningstar.com): http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/s?t=FIZZ
Bussinessweek (businessweek.com): http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot_article.asp?ticker=FIZZ



$FIZZ DD Notes ~ http://www.ddnotesmaker.com/FIZZ

[stocktrademan]

$FIZZ DD Notes ~ http://www.ddnotesmaker.com/FIZZ

bullish

$FIZZ recent news/filings

## source: finance.yahoo.com

Wed, 15 Oct 2014 18:06:00 GMT ~ Will Monster Beverage Draw Energy From Coke Deal?


read full: http://news.investors.com/101514-721870-monster-beverage-seen-getting-lift-from-Coke-pact.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo
*********************************************************

Thu, 09 Oct 2014 21:15:06 GMT ~ NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP Files SEC form 8-K, Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders


read full: http://biz.yahoo.com/e/141009/fizz8-k.html
*********************************************************

Thu, 02 Oct 2014 07:00:27 GMT ~ Annual Report for National Beverage Corp.


read full: http://www.companyspotlight.com/routers/headline/16127/10004/6399459?cp_code=YAH1&1412233227
*********************************************************

Wed, 17 Sep 2014 17:04:11 GMT ~ NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP Financials


read full: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=fizz
*********************************************************

Thu, 11 Sep 2014 17:59:45 GMT ~ NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP Files SEC form 8-K, Results of Operations and Financial Condition, Financial Statements and Ex


read full: http://biz.yahoo.com/e/140911/fizz8-k.html
*********************************************************


$FIZZ charts

basic chart ## source: stockcharts.com



basic chart ## source: stockscores.com



big daily chart ## source: stockcharts.com



big weekly chart ## source: stockcharts.com


$FIZZ company information

## source: otcmarkets.com

Link: http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/company-info
Ticker: $FIZZ
OTC Market Place: Not Available
CIK code: 0000069891
Company name: National Beverage Corp.
Incorporated In: DE, USA


$FIZZ share structure

## source: otcmarkets.com

Market Value: $1,111,696,960 a/o Oct 20, 2014
Shares Outstanding: 46,340,015 a/o Sep 04, 2014
Float: Not Available
Authorized Shares: Not Available
Par Value: 0.01
$FIZZ extra dd links

Company name: National Beverage Corp.
## STOCK DETAILS ##
After Hours Quote (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/after-hours
Option Chain (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/option-chain
Historical Prices (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=FIZZ+Historical+Prices
Company Profile (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=FIZZ+Profile
Industry (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/in?s=FIZZ+Industry

## COMPANY NEWS ##
Market Stream (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/stream
Latest news (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/news - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=FIZZ+Headlines

## STOCK ANALYSIS ##
Analyst Research (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/analyst-research
Guru Analysis (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/guru-analysis
Stock Report (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/stock-report
Competitors (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/competitors
Stock Consultant (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/stock-consultant
Stock Comparison (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/stock-comparison
Investopedia (investopedia.com): http://www.investopedia.com/markets/stocks/FIZZ/?wa=0
Research Reports (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/research
Basic Tech. Analysis (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=FIZZ+Basic+Tech.+Analysis
Barchart (barchart.com): http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/FIZZ
DTCC (dtcc.com): http://search2.dtcc.com/?q=National+Beverage+Corp.&x=10&y=8&sp_p=all&sp_f=ISO-8859-1
Spoke company information (spoke.com): http://www.spoke.com/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&q=National+Beverage+Corp.
Corporation WIKI (corporationwiki.com): http://www.corporationwiki.com/search/results?term=National+Beverage+Corp.&x=0&y=0

## FUNDAMENTALS ##
Call Transcripts (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/call-transcripts
Annual Report (companyspotlight.com): http://www.companyspotlight.com/library/companies/keyword/FIZZ
Income Statement (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/financials?query=income-statement
Revenue/EPS (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/revenue-eps
SEC Filings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/sec-filings
Edgar filings (sec.gov): http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000069891&owner=exclude&count=40
Latest filings (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/filings
Latest financials (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/financials
Short Interest (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/short-interest
Dividend History (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/dividend-history
RegSho (regsho.com): http://www.regsho.com/tools/symbol_stats.php?sym=FIZZ&search=search
OTC Short Report (otcshortreport.com): http://otcshortreport.com/index.php?index=FIZZ
Short Sales (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/short-sales
Key Statistics (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=FIZZ+Key+Statistics
Insider Roster (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ir?s=FIZZ+Insider+Roster
Income Statement (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=FIZZ
Balance Sheet (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=FIZZ
Cash Flow (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cf?s=FIZZ+Cash+Flow&annual

## HOLDINGS ##
Major holdings (cnbc.com): http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/FIZZ/tab/8.1
Insider transactions (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=FIZZ+Insider+Transactions
Insider transactions (secform4.com): http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/FIZZ.htm
Insider transactions (insidercrow.com): http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp?company=FIZZ
Ownership Summary (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/ownership-summary
Institutional Holdings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/institutional-holdings
Insiders (SEC Form 4) (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/FIZZ/insider-trades
Insider Disclosure (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/FIZZ/insider-transactions

## SOCIAL MEDIA AND OTHER VARIOUS SOURCES ##
PST (pennystocktweets.com): http://www.pennystocktweets.com/stocks/profile/FIZZ
Market Watch (marketwatch.com): http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/FIZZ
Bloomberg (bloomberg.com): http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FIZZ:US
Morningstar (morningstar.com): http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/s?t=FIZZ
Bussinessweek (businessweek.com): http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot_article.asp?ticker=FIZZ



$FIZZ DD Notes ~ http://www.ddnotesmaker.com/FIZZ

[Penny Roger$]

Doing fantastic! Similar P/E when compared to others at current pps.
http://www.nationalbeverage.com/products/

[bigthug]

So whats up with this stock?????

[Penny Roger$]

Strange, I buy the "fizzy water" sometimes. http://www.nationalbeverage.com/50Products.htm

[Penny Roger$]

Wow, this one is still moving strong. This was one of many I posted. I started well over 1000 stock boards on ihub here. There was a void that needed filling. Thank you for the update.

[robtewms]

I'm in. Are you still long?

[Penny Roger$]

$FIZZ - Candlesticks











MACDscan

[Penny Roger$]

National Beverage Corp. develops, manufactures, markets and distributes a portfolio of beverage products throughout the United States. The Company is engaged in the development and sale of flavored beverage products in the United States, offering a selection of flavored soft drinks, juices, sparkling waters, energy drinks and nutritionally-enhanced waters. Its flagship brands include Shasta and Faygo. The Company also offers the health-conscious consumer a diverse line of flavored beverage products, including Everfresh, Home Juice and Mr. Pure 100% juice and juice-based products; LaCroix, Crystal Bay and ClearFruit flavored, sparkling and spring water products; and ASante nutritionally-enhanced waters. In addition, the Company produces and market Rip It energy drinks, Ohana fruit-flavored drinks, St. Nick’s holiday soft drinks, as well as effervescent powder beverage enhancers sold under the NutraFizz brand name.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=FIZZ