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So bad is the earnings at the end of Oct? It dropped from 46 to 40 in the last earnings, now going to 30 after next ER?
Obviously, the US volume is healthy but EuroNext sux so overall cash trading revenue should be down only slightly. But that should not translate to another 20% drop in PPS. What's worrying may be the downtrend - but the PPS is off more than 50% already. That's not enough punishment?
Look at NDAQ, obviously it is more expensive than NYX, but it does not have the drag of Euronext.
Anyway, this is sobering for the longs.
The Bailout, or as Senator Bunning...
repeatedly termed it "The Paulson Plan" is being discussed this morning in the Senate hearing room.
All good opening statements by all of the Senators. Unfortunately, the hearing just got preempted by Bush at the United Nations. Hopefully, Bloomberg switches back quickly.
The Senators comments are surprisingly reassuring this morning.
Good! Very Good!
NYX on the emergency order
list by the SEC of securities temporarily banned from short selling, along with NDAQ, ICE, CME, and NMX.
NMX? Yes, that is on the list too.
At least they didn't include ISE.
GL.
Hey Metro...
Good to hear from you. I didn't buy NYX, but, did buy some GS after that dive today - was watching MS and GS closely. There was a double bottom on a short time frame so went for it. Keeping it for a flip probably only until tomorrow. Depends what else is disclosed tomorrow from D.C. ahead of the weekend.
But, I think the whole crew - Treasury, Fed, SEC, the Administration, Congress, FDIC, etc. gets low marks so far. But, it is what it is. More of a fascinating study of human nature and our society and government and now politics.
They are still not wanting to react, then being forced to react, and so we'll just have to see what comes out by next Monday. But, they are still feeling pressure since they got so far behind the curve and it will take some time now to evaluate all of these moves. Hopefully, they don't feel too desperate and go too far like for example with these rules banning short sales the SEC is considering now.
That, and with all of these emergency last minute reactions since January, we have never gotten a flush with everything lined up for a strong bottom, although looking at some different indicators especially for the financials, the July low and this week are pretty close.
Been trading some E-mini's still and otherwise been sitting on mostly all cash and sleeping well and watching it all unfold.
Some good interviews on Bloomberg today on the next wave of problems coming later this year with Municipalities.
I'm looking at some other names too like GOOG, consumer staples, etc.
Good luck in this interesting time.
Larry Kudlow is going to have to change his tagline on his show about free market capitalism. We don't have that anymore in the US.
Anyone buy any NYX art the depressed levels?
Looks like everyone is cramming cash into T-bills and gold.
Look at the T-bill rate this morning. There was a 2-year T-bill that reportedly sold for 0.015% interest. The low interest is due to the fact they're in such high demand. The high demand comes from Hedge Funds and institutions who are panicing, and pooling all there assets in the only thing that is 'gauranteed' these days... those two things are commodities and T-bills. The hedge funds call the banks to get their money (before it's gone), and the banks have to sell stocks to meet the redemptions, i.e. the stock market goes down. A short sellers paradise.
This 'run' on the banks will impact every coporation on a global scale from the standpoint that capital will no longer be available... at least at not a reasonable rate and hardest at those places without strong balance sheets. This lack of cpaital will not allow coporations from being able to rotate debt or borrow to invest in growth/acquisitions. This is bad news for the economy for the next year or two... job losses, more mortgage defaults, etc etc etc etc etc
Overall, I am ooptimistic that strong companies with good balance sheets, like APD, for example, will weather this financial storm. The current environment will present some excellent opportunities to buy APD, much like back in 2001... if you bought back then, you caugth a triple if you sold +$20/share ago. Even now, you caught a double, which represents an outperformance of the S&P of over +140%.
I am looking at other great bargains, like PM, DO, PBR, KFT, GOOG, etc. I am also looking for stocks that will pay a nice divvy versus the current share price. PM, for example, is over 4%.
Good luck to you all in this turbulent market!
NBO - What;s your grade of Paulson (A-F)? (just curious)
m
Good article by Cramer on NYX
today on Real Money titled "The NYSE is Done".
Good reading.
gl.
BATS ECN says it won...
SEC approval to operate as registered national exchange as listed in the news today.
Probably one item that is mostly built into NYX and some extent CME prices already as there is not a lot of volume today, but, they are both pushed down again.
GL.
Thanks Metro...
I'll look over that site later when I get some time.
Re: NYX - long-term, the value is still there. But, man, is it weak still. I didn't study that last quarter, but, looking at the revenue and eps, it really fell off from last qtr, and just barely above a year ago - so the sellers correctly knew what was coming. The Nasdaq numbers were improving with their acquisitions and got a quick bump, but have not seen #'s on US market share. Just looking at NY composite charts, trading volume was down for the recent qtr, but also don't know about the action in markets in Europe. As a value play, this is still a good one, but, man is that chart ugly. It's kind of ? - stunning. Good luck with it.
Me, I'm long other positions - some recently: MCD, BMI, CALM, a little tech, etc. But, tight stops, not much size, and otherwise, scalping some e-minis.
Wanted to mention a great read as it has been a tuff year for most people: Trading In the Zone by Mark Douglas. It's on psychology only and well written throughout. Great stuff for a market like this.
It'll be interesting to see the images from China in the next several weeks. Hope they get a little rain.
GL.
Hello NBO!
I watch Cramer occasionally, but I missed the 1 yr anniversary of the Rant. It is hard to believe that that was 1 yr ago! It seems like yesterday that I first heard the word "sub-prime"...
I think you are right about staying defensive. I am a bit reluctant to create new long positions in almost every sector. Banks are too hard. FRE and AIG proves that to be the case. Health care, biotech, and pharma have already had a run. Materials may start slowing as consumers continue to lose jobs (US Jobless Claims +7K To 455K In Aug 2 Wk vs. Survey -20K), and we start seeing a bottom in the commodity pull back. Also, the Fed really has no where to go but up on interests rates over the next 6 months, which will cause even more equity losses in the housing market. I saw an estimate from some Prof at Stern Biz School yesterday, forecasting 10-15% more housing price attrition into summer 2009! I have also seen the dollar "strengthen" ($1.60 to $1.547) -- if you want to call it that, which may dampen some of the export biz we have been enjoying now for 2 years.
I just need to see better lagging and leading indicators going forward. Until then, I am storing my powder in money markets and some bonds. Also, I have opened a borker managed account with Boston Trading Research back in June. These guys have been yielding about 5% monthly returns over the past 19 months (before fees and commissions). They have professional currency traders and maintain a very conservative investment style. They do not invest more than 30% of your capital at a time. Link: http://btrfx.com/index.php
I can send you a borchure on BTR if you e-mail me at tjfly_3579@hotmail.com
In terms of the stock market, probably the only thing that intices me currently, aside from the rare spec play, may be nibbling at some recently battered energy stocks like PBR or CHK. Even associated energy plays like PX and APD may be good buys at these levels.
GL!
Your trading and investment choices should be the result of your own due diligence.
I echo that, most companies have to demonstrate declines to get this treatment. I think it became a despised company when they laid off the floor specialists. To me as a shareholder they've become a leaner and more profitable company. You have to remember the FUD being spun around NYX is coming from some of the industry's most seasoned traders who were spurned from NYX and put out on the streets. JMHO
Hey Metro!
Good luck with everything.
I'm still leaning towards D-fence as so many individual charts are a mess. I liked MCD yesterday, but, stocks like that are really not my style.
Don't know if you saw it, but, last Friday's show was on the 1-year anniversary of the Rant, and on the opening segment Cramer just told it like it is and basically ripped Bernanke. It was actually great television. I hope some in Washington watched it.
GL.
Also, after seeing her new video yesterday in response to McCain's celebrity commercial, I'm writing in and voting for Paris Hilton now! I seriously wonder why our 2 candidates couldn't come up with an energy plan like she promotes in the video. More great television!
I am resigned to hold for the next 3 years and turn off my NYX radar. NYX is an orphaned stock. All we can hope is that NYX continues to grow volumes, and that the buy back post-AMX acquisition will provide some sort of backstop to the brutal sell offs that we've all become so accustomed to.
I refuse to trake a loss in this stock. The fundies are too good... at the same time, I also refuse to purchase any additional shares. My portfolio needs more diversification!
Your trading and investment choices should be the result of your own due diligence.
Tough day huge sell off for a small miss.
NYSE Group Inc (NYX) reported Q2 results ended June 2008. Q2 Revenues were $1,153.00M; +7.06% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +4.57%. Q2 EPS was 73c. Adjusted Q2 EPS was 75c; +17.19% vs yr-ago; MISSING earnings consensus by -3.85%.
Q2 RESULTS Reported Year-Ago Y/Y Chg Estimate SURPRISE
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
Revenues: $1,153.00M $1,077.00M +7.06% $1,102.66M +4.57%
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
EPS: 73c N/A N/A N/A N/A
Adj EPS: 75c 64c +17.19% 78c -3.85%
---------- ------------ ------------ ---------- ------------ ----------
Hey Metro...
yes, caution is still due until we get some confirmations in the markets. I've been sitting on a fair amount of cash and lately every time I wade back in, I get stopped out pretty quickly. I'm watching the Tour and taking it mostly easy for now.
How are you feeling? Hope things are better than from last spring.
GL.
Check out HGRD... their second largest holder, Magnetar Capital, has been liquidating its position relentlessly.
None of the other institutions have followed. What has ensued is a dive in the share price with a bearish short-term overhang... I refer to this phenomenon as a chance to buy cheap shares.
Whatever Magnetar's reasons, I see a great opportunity to jump in here. The stock has analyst support. Here are some quick stats:
Price: $3.99
Market Cap: $113 Million
2008 EPS: $0.18
2009 EPS: $0.29
Fwd Growth: 61.11%
Fwd P/E: 13.76
Fwd PEG: 0.23
TTM P/S: 3.21
Short % of Float (as of 25-Jun-08): 0.60%
Your trading and investment choices should be the result of your own due diligence.
$10,000 in fresh powder for long term investment... what to do, what to do...
I am still looking at nibbling on PBR and CHK. They're looking good right now as we get some healthy pull backs.
Materials Sector is down today as money shifts back into financials. This phenomenon seems all too premature, as only two days ago there were rumors of an estimated 150 more banks going under in the next few weeks.
Go look at CME. Better for options trade. Same chart, basically.
Yep, it's staying ugly...
getting a relief bounce right now across the screens as I write. But, with continued problems like the IMB news on Friday afternoon, WM skidding today, and continued FRE and FNM "news" (noise), every short-term buy point lower stays just that - a short-term trade and flip quickly thereafter.
Getting close(r) to a bottom, but, don't see it yet and still don't see any real leadership from Washington - not from the Fed, Treasury, FDIC, Congress, the Bush Administration, SEC, nor anyone. So, gonna maintain some longer-term short positions - even after covering some today. Definitely don't have any confirmations to load up on anything long yet regardless of different indicators.
GL.
Williams %R kind of low now. $37.50 would be a total retrace of all gains.
How about NXY instead of NYX?
Some pressure today as it came in just below it's 50. But, this is one to watch depending on how oil trades going forward.
NYX just continues ugly along with this market.
Tomorrow morning will be interesting - I'm expecting more declines/losses than economists are estimating and expecting on the jobs number.
GL.
Just following up...
with a little more disclosure. While doing some select scaled buying at this juncture, I'm also plenty protected with QID, short the Q's and a couple of other plays for the downside.
Viva la Tour - starts this weekend.
GL.
HA-Ha!!!
How you doing Metro?
Actually, I'm waiting to see if today (or soon) we get that shwoosh down at some point. It could happen this time, unlike in January and March when Bernanke and Co. were pulling tricks out of their collective hat at the lows to try to make up for their previous inaction and/or totally behind the curve actions at just about every point - which they'll never admit triggered all that selling. They're sitting it out at the moment.
I'm looking for a flush, but, even if not, some stocks have really taken a hit, looks like time to start putting in some limit orders and see if I get filled - on some select names.
NYX - wow! new all time low. Incredible. I'm more interested in CME this morning on a related play. Missed my second buy at 352 just now by one penny. Woops, just got it while writing. Set up a wide scale if you are not worried.
GL today and tomorrow Metro.
The main problem, besides
this market, is they keep having to cut their fees to compete for order flow. In Europe, some estimates are as high as 50% of orders are matched outside of the displayed exchanges.
To continue their competition with other pools, i.e. BATS, as well as dark pools, etc. NYX is going to have to keep coming up with new platforms, like SmartPool.
With their estimates being cut, I guess we can expect more weakness, but, at some point, like a good double bottom sometime soon, this really becomes a great value play. Like some of those others you mentioned - and like lots of other Dow stocks.
OT - this "green" or more accurately alternative energy movement is really picking up steam with oil ramping.
I first noticed some changed behavior three weeks ago when everyone on the freeways dropped their speed from 75 to 65. In our own neighborhood people are planning and having meetings to start putting up small wind turbines - and we already have a lot of solar panels on the hills and roofs. Honda will have their new fuel cell car on the road in July also out here. And I did like McCain's $300 million battery initiative proposal today. Interesting stuff on the new planet green channel as well. Need to get a list of top stocks for all of this happening.
Thinking how cool someday to have your solar array generate power all day (for net metering) and also runs your home photocatalytic hydrogen generator so you can fill up your fuel cell car in the evening. A total local and decentralized energy infrastucture (the best for security) and clean energy independence for all.
GL.
Yep. I certainly didn't expect that NYX would have turned into a 5-10 year investment, but I'm now resigned to accept it.
We're going to sit in the doldrums for a long while, and I am done averaging down. It's time to save and dilute NYX's proportion of my total portfolio. At least we can rely on a growing dividend and good management. Niederauer seems to have everything back under control other than the stock price. NYX is fighting the frightening prospect of being labeled a tech-financial company at exactly the wrong time in the economic cycle.
Right now I like where PM & PEP have set up as entry points. I am also thinking of wading into GE, but I am waiting for some show of support. It;s acting too much like a financial. (I don't think anyone thougt GE would break 30). I also like money markets (LOL).
Have a great weekend.
NYX looks like
dead money even with the AMX deal news today. The buyback looks like it offers no support. And I noticed Cramer finally dumped his entire position as it fell below the 50 dma 4 weeks ago.
CME is moving on the NMX news and the upgrade. I still like that one. Similarily, with more people leaving like Cramer, NYX could get going later at some point on any upgrade as this AMX deal looks to go still later this year.
NYSE Euronext did get a little exposure over the weekend from the U.S. Open on Westwood's play (his sponsor) with Tiger. What a great contest - all last week and especially Saturday and Monday. Hope some of you got to see it.
Trading days sure are better with the U.S. Open, live coverage from the ISS, or other good television going on in the background.
GL.
Hope some of you have some MA
it looks like it's begun it's next move...
Cramer says today on Realmoney, he'll be clear, NUE is a great stock.
I still prefer SID.
GL.
Hey, someone is bidding for NYX today, whadaya know. GOOG is being bought too. Let's see how we close as this market is still a little jittery.
Misc - MSFT has a lot of money burning a hole in their pockets. With the YHOO distraction mostly gone, and their next windows version operating with touch screens, seems like their next next direction is voice. NUAN and some others would be interesting. A little early, but, something to think about.
Thanks, Not Bill.
NYX has turned into a very long term investment, it seems.
Mel
Hi Mel:
A couple of things on NYX: it's at same price as it was two years ago, however, earnings have more than doubled since then, estimates were just bumped up, AMX should be integrated later this year too. The downside is the market is in a correction again since last week's tumble.
What's going on is more people are selling versus buying. Who knows why. My own personal recent lesson on this was on a Yahoo short after MSFT finally walked. That stock should've kept falling, but, right away, after the initial hit, it started rising. Someone was clearly buying. Who? Why? It didn't matter, I had to cover for a loss and move on.
After the fact, all the rumors were confirmed that Icahn was buying a massive amount of shares and calls, as well as his Billionaire friends who were following his lead and loading up (i.e. Pickens and others) and probably some brokers who heard the rumors and saw what was going on. I gave some money to all of them.
For whatever reason, the NYSE buyback didn't seem to matter last week, nor much else, because the bottom line there was just more selling than buying. Why? Who knows. Maybe some people were selling so they could buy more Yahoo!
Times like these are good for studying and monitoring for the next group of winners.
Re NYX, look through some of the more recent news releases, esp regarding reducing commissions, etc. That's what people have been worried about. You'll have to make the call on your investments.
Good luck. And remember it's been a tough year for most people.
Hi, NB and Metro,
I've been out of the loop for a while, and I've tried not to watch my investments bite for the last few months. Today, I looked at NYX. I'm still in it, and I'm wondering what the heck is going on - I've taken a major hit here. Am I going to lose my entire investment if I continue to wait? Or should I bail out now and accept the losses?
Info on what we can expect at this point since I've no clue would be appreciated.
Mel
Re: hated
I think your right!
GLTA
Why down $2? NYX is hated. I am pretty sure it's just a hate thing. GL!
Yea, if they are not ...
buying back right here to make a stand, at 66, they are going to start losing some of the sponsorship they do have.
One good pick Cramer made recently was PRGN.
Also, watch MA.
GL.
Hum off 2 bucks whats up?
bought more in the 68 range... seems like a good bet, and NYX is down on market pressure. and we have a good safety buffer with the buy back.
Got NYX?
Good quarter and interesting stuff going on. And there's the volume today, finally.
I just saw Cramer took the bag off his head tonight before talking to Niederauer and is done being defensive on this stock he recommended a long time ago.
Too bad they didn't get NMX. But the Euronext numbers and products that showed up this quarter are very good. And the AMX integration should be done ahead of schedule.
I still also like CME.
GL.
NYX is looking good right here...
I like the way the chart is setting up. Just need to see some real volume - maybe on 5/6.
FSLR technically is a buy, but, it is getting to be an expensive growth stock. Thin film PV is in, but, there are other second generation thin film technologies also being developed for lower mass production costs. So, it's not the only propreitary solution. If you get it, know your sell rules. I like some other solar names ahead of this still. Metro, you have seemed to often fish for the best value plays out there which is what I like to do too - and there are a couple names that still have value in solar too, with big growth. Those are the ones I like. You'll find them.
GL.
I think the street recognizes that NYX took their pain the morning of their last earnings report. I'd think the downside at NYX is therefore limited to maybe 4 or 5 points. We're done seeing the 50s I hope.
I see the upside of NYX as roughly matching the growth-rate of their earnings (projected to be 22%/y over the next 5 years) -- a pretty good investment at these levels, imho.
In other news, am I too late on FSLR?
And NYX...
besides the CME cc, as well as the news earlier in the week on NYX cutting their fees again next month, you also get the Journal article this a.m. on Nasdaq gaining share on the NYSE - it's all putting some pressure on again.
OK, as long as this volume stays low.
GL.
hey Metro, good to read you
are doing better. I hope you get through any remaining challenges quick and back 100%.
I like the market much more the last couple of weeks. Have been working on positions with some diverse leaders - i.e. most can be found searchng through IBD. After many years I find I use their services mainly to verify my own screens, which of course are largely based on O'Neil's work, so my picks naturally usually match. And of course Google.
The MO of every leading manager now has to be get enough Goog, so every pull back will likely be bought. So, even though there is still skepticism, I don't expect too many significant pullbacks. BIDU confirms that story right now. However, anything China needs caution.
A couple of my solar plays are limping along the last several days, but, regardless of oil prices, they should continue to do well longer term.
Besides MSFT stinking up the rally today, next week we likely get into overbought territory, so caution is raised. But, still overall bullish. That MSFT pursuit of YHOO seems it could go on longer than the democratic campaign. In the end, however, I think it helps GOOG. Like the recent benefit McCain is getting.
A chart of the Fed Funds rates over the last several years show how far Bernanke & Co were behind the past 6 months and the panic they ultimately were in. They finally acted at the last second, so yeah, 25 bps should be it.
Signs of inflation are showing up out here so they have to thread this recovery carefully.
GL and have a good weekend.
Hey hey. Dropping a line. Feeling a bit better, but still facing some challenges health-wise.
Some goo dthings to look forward to - My bet in GR finally paid off today. They blew away earnings.
I sold off GR, probably a mistake, but frankly I am bored with it. Looking for some suggestions for my next stock.
NBO - hope you're doing well! Looks like the Fed will be once more-and done with the next 25 basis point cut. A benign action meatn to merge the market's perception into the mode of healing itself, in my opinion. Interested on hearing your take when they release their decision in the next few days.
Much regards,
m
NYX getting some pressure today...
off of CME. Have to listen to that call to see what's really going on. A slight analyst miss, but, overall the numbers look good and should portray good numbers for NYX.
GL.
Market shows signs of firming up...
including this GOOG cc this afternoon.
The action and internals yesterday looked very good, especially with leading stocks. Today was weaker than expected, but, still ok.
GL.
Too bad this NYX move up...
isn't on more volume.
RIMM AH will help tomorrow, but, against the Senate testimony and hearing with Bernanke, Cox, Steel, Geithner, Dimon, and Schwartz tomorrow might be tough to overcome. But, then again, given the lame questioning of Bernanke by the Joint Economic Committee today, maybe not too much will really be asked and/or disclosed in the Dirksen hearing room tomorrow.
As Vince Farrell summed up earlier today regarding our elected members of Congress on their comments and questions to Bernanke, "I also get the strong feeling that most of them don't have a clue regarding economic or financial matters. God help us."
GL.
More news of the regulatory overhaul...
continued to leak on Friday and started coming out Friday late afternoon and then through the weekend. Some of the underlying points are not favorable, but, a lot of it is also non-substantial or more accurately, not as changing as possibly expected even if it is hundreds of pages.
Takeaway - only things involved with the government, in this case the Treasury, Fed, Administration, are this backwards. The Fed gets more power and more control after helping create and perpetuate the problems. Only after it is first totally wrong and then many months behind not only all last year, but, going back many years when they basically set up the conditions and promoted the recklessness with no oversight and let it grow with Greenspan.
And real change in Washington doesn't come when it can head off some problems, it comes only after the problems hit and then take hold does everyone then feel a need to act to do something quick.
Today started with a short speech from President Bush with Laura beside him outside the White House in the dark with only the early morning light in the background. No doubt to show us that they all have been busy again all weekend.
They are now desperately trying to put a floor under this situation and this market right here. Only thing is, by continuing to prevent the flush, we don't get new strong long term holders. Instead we grind along.
But, maybe with enough new changes and late actions, the floor is put in and it holds.
Good luck.
Paulson's speech today...
sounds like it's from someone else.
Who is this man? Even his tone is more sure, along with his choice of words.
Good!
And good points and reassurance.
Sorry to hear that...
get well soon!
Yes, Spitzer really messed up. I hope Paterson does some good for the state.
Good luck on your trades and holdings. I put in a low bid for just a little bit of Visa, it's coming down slowly, we'll see.
GL.
NBO - Honestly, I have been out of the loop. Have recently had some health issues that I need to focus on. It's nothing life threatening, but it is something that has affected my quality of life. I am hopeful to be better soon, but it may take a longer period of time than what I thought initially to finally get there.
In terms of the gov - too bad spitzer is an idiot. I think Paterson will do just fine relative to his predecessors. Form what I understand, the state needs really a fiscal conservative for once. Stop the spending. I thought Spitzer may have been just that guy.
Hey Metro, what's going on
out there in NY? I'm just hearing out here in CA about Paterson's second day in office and his news conference he held with his wife about their previous affairs.
We aren't getting much coverage on it out here. Are things going to blow over or are you going to get yet another governor?
Probably a good buy this morning...
Good luck.
Cramer just wrote a piece about his rant last night on the show regarding NYX - great piece! It outlines what I was thinking when I watched it a second time last night - that he's giving up so it will now probably get going. Then we get those announcements this morning.
He also outlines some other bad calls of his of late at this market juncture.
And here's how he ends his piece this morning: "We are always looking for signs of a bottom after a big selloff. I earlier indicated that I didn't see a lot of capitulation yesterday. But the details above are all signs of capitulation, at least by me and other people in the media".
Right now, 15 minutes to this next Fed announcement.
I'm waiting for after the actual cut amount announcement and see if they add to it and do something else creative - that could be the kicker, especially if it's only 75 bps. Even if they don't, 75 might continue the rally based on the changes they did on Sunday opening up the discount window.
And on the off chance they do say 50 bps, probably should buy right away 'cause something else bigger is likely following in the text.
GL.
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NYX is the ticker symbol for NYSE Euronext. The company operates trading on its platforms for the New York Stock Exchange and in other countries as well. It pays out 4.32% dividend at the current price per share and you are quite literally investing into the infrastructure behind the NYSE. I'll add more this weekend.
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