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What's Next for Nvidia?
By: 24/7 Wall St. | September 1, 2022
Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock was crushed in August as the fate of semiconductors globally is still being decided. Recent moves involving China also have played into this rocky road for the chip company.
Famously, U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited the island nation of Taiwan, to the chagrin of China. Along with her came a delegation to ascertain the future of semiconductor production and to maintain stability within the region.
Some could argue that this political move has backfired, as semiconductor stocks have pulled back since then. The expansion of foundries within the United States is a net positive, given enough time they could alleviate global demand and add to national security.
Bernstein’s analyst, Stacy Rasgon, recently reiterated an Outperform rating on Nvidia but lowered the $210 price target to $180, implying upside of 19% from the most recent closing price of $150.94.
All this comes after the company released an 8-K filing indicating the United States has imposed new license requirements, effective immediately, affecting the company’s ability to ship its A100 and upcoming H100 products, as well as any future products with similar or greater performance, to China as such products may be diverted to military end use.
Rasgon notes that $400 million per quarter of potential impact suggests relevant China sales are a low double-digit percentage of total data center revenues. Note that Nvidia previously issued guidance for third-quarter data center revenue to be $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion, which is “not trivial but not an insurmountable blow either,” though it is clearly an “incremental negative” as the business may be permanently impaired, according to Rasgon. Discussing possible impacts to other companies, he noted that AI-focused data center GPUs are more likely to be “in the cross-hairs” than general purpose items.
Nvidia stock was last seen down roughly 5% Thursday morning near $143 a share. The 52-week range is $140.55 to $346.47, and the consensus price target is $216.05.
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U.S. allows Nvidia to export, transfer tech to develop flagship AI chip
By: Reuters | September 1, 2022
• Nvidia Corp said on Thursday that the U.S. government has allowed exports and in-country transfers needed to develop the company’s H100 artificial intelligence chip.
(Reuters) -Nvidia Corp said on Thursday that the U.S. government has allowed exports and in-country transfers needed to complete the development of its flagship artificial intelligence chip.
The disclosure comes a day after Washington told the company to stop exporting its two top computing chips for AI work to China, a move Nvidia said could interfere with the development of the H100 chip it announced this year.
The ban signaled a major escalation of the U.S. crackdown on China’s technological capabilities as tensions bubble over the fate of Taiwan, where chips for Nvidia and almost every other major chip firm are manufactured.
The ban, which affects Nvidia’s A100 and H100 chips designed to speed up machine learning tasks, sent the company’s shares down 4% before the bell.
In its statement on Thursday, Nvidia said U.S. officials have authorized it to perform exports needed to provide support for U.S. customers of A100 through March 1, 2023.
The chip designer has also been allowed to fulfill orders of the chips via its Hong Kong facility through Sept. 1, 2023. (https://bit.ly/3Q5YfhR)
Rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc, whose shares were down 3%, was also asked on Wednesday to stop AI chip exports to China. The company did not respond to a request for comment on whether it received a similar authorization.
The ban is likely to hit almost any major tech company running public clouds or advanced artificial intelligence training modules in China, experts said.
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NVDA $1.6 Million OTM Put Strike: 145 Expiration: 10/21
By: Cheddar Flow | August 31, 2022
• $NVDA $1.6M OTM Put
Strike: 145
Expiration: 10/21
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Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) Long term great name, but for now it has short term problems
By: Options Mike | August 28, 2022
• $NVDA 100D resistance,
155 some support then 140. Long term great name, but for now it has short term problems.
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Nvidia Analysts Cut Price Targets After ‘Ugly’ Results, But Some Still Say Buy the Stock
By: Barron's | August 25, 2022
Wall Street analysts aren’t ready to give up on Nvidia yet—even after the company has reduced its outlook versus analysts’ estimates three times over the last few months.
On Wednesday, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) reported fiscal second-quarter earnings roughly in line with its preannouncement it had issued earlier this month. The company also gave a revenue forecast for the October quarter that was significantly below expectations, citing a difficult macroeconomic environment and a rapid slowdown of demand.
Benchmark analyst Cody Acree lowered his target for the stock’s price to $215 from $228, but reiterated his Buy Rating for the stock.
“We believe NVDA’s report and outlook was about as bad as expected following its pre-announcement,” he wrote. “With this print and outlook likely being the low-water mark for this year’s results, we recommend investors use any significant share price weakness as an opportunity to build positions.”
Nvidia shares rose 1.5% to $174.79 in early trading Thursday.
In a separate note, Bernstein was similarly optimistic over Nvidia’s longer-term opportunities after the recent string of bad news. Analyst Stacy Rasgon reaffirmed his Outperform rating and $210 stock price target.
“Investors likely suspected FQ3 had the potential to be somewhat ugly. And it was, much lower than the (still somewhat noisy) revised consensus expectations,” he wrote. “Investors looking for a de-risked profile have much to grab onto.”
Rasgon lowered his fiscal 2023 earnings estimate for Nvidia to $3.39 a share from $3.64.
But not everyone on Wall Street is as positive. Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson reiterated his Neutral rating for the chip maker and reduced his price target to $160 from $190. He cited the uncertainty surrounding its enterprise and cloud-computing business.
“We believe it remains unclear as to how NVDA’s Data Center revenue will grow through the intermediate term,” he wrote.
Nvidia’s stock has declined by about 40% this year, versus the 25% drop in the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which tracks the performance of the ICE Semiconductor Index.
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Nvidia: Do Analysts See Train Wreck or Fender Bender?
By: 24/7 Wall St. | August 25, 2022
When Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) reported second-quarter results late Wednesday, investors promptly took the stock to the woodshed, cutting as much as 6% from the share price in after-hours trading. At the opening bell Thursday, shares traded down by about 1%.
The company had warned earlier that revenue and profits would be lower for the quarter, so that was no surprise. What had investors worried was the company’s outlook for the current quarter. Nvidia has forecast revenue of $5.9 billion, less than a consensus estimate of $6.9 billion.
Gaming chip sales were lower, as expected. Sales of Nvidia’s graphics processors, which are heavily used in the crypto-mining business, also have been slow. They may get slower once Ethereum completes its transition to a proof-of-stake model rather than the proof-of-work model it and Bitcoin currently use. The new model uses a small fraction of the electricity needed for crypto mining.
The big worry is the company’s data center business. Data center sales hit a record level in the second quarter but were still short of projections. Nvidia could have sold more but supplies of supporting chips were constrained. CEO Jensen Huang said it will take time to sort out the supply chain challenges. About 70% of Nvidia’s second-quarter revenue was down to data center sales.
A half dozen brokerages have weighed in on Nvidia’s results. Most reiterated their previous ratings but lowered price targets. Here is a sample of what each had to say.
Cowen reiterated its Buy rating on the stock and its $200 price target. The firm said that clearing out its inventory of gaming and crypto-mining chips was “painful but necessary and welcome.” Cowen’s analyst fears that Nvidia’s stock price may be range-bound in the near term.
Benchmark Capital maintained its Buy rating but lowered its $228 price target to $215. Analyst Cody Acree wrote in a research note that the aggressive inventory clearance in the current quarter is “likely” to drive the stock to its near-term bottom.
Citigroup analyst Atif Malik reaffirmed a Buy rating but lowered the stock’s $285 price target to $248. Malik expects sequential growth in gaming sales to resume in the January quarter once the inventory overhang is cleared. Much depends on continued growth in Nvidia’s data center business, while a “major auto [industry] inflection next year” offers another opportunity.
Fubon cut its rating on the stock from Buy to Neutral and has a price target of $180. The Taipei-based firm also has banking operations in Hong Kong and China. No further comments are available.
Mizuho kept a Buy rating on the stock, but it cut the $250 price target to $225. A new gaming chip set to debut next year adds to what analyst Vijay Rakesh sees as a buying opportunity because he expects both sales and margins to improve next year.
Wedbush maintained its Neutral rating on the sock and cut its $190 price target to $160. Analyst Matt Bryson thinks the company has signaled that the current quarter will be the year’s low point. Slower spending in China is a new challenge, and demand for data center chips could be hampered by the tougher macro environment. Bryson is less sanguine than some other analysts on the prospects for Nvidia’s new superchips.
In the early afternoon Thursday, Nvidia stock traded at around $176.30, up about 2.3% for the day, in a 52-week range of $140.55 to $346.47.
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Nvda - Nice turnaround for the stock today!
By: DiscoverGold | August 25, 2022
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NVIDIA: A Top Choice In Bifurcated Chip Market?
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | August 25, 2022
• NVIDIA Has Weak Quarter, Lowers Guidance
NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) 2nd quarter results reveal a growing bifurcation within the microchip industry (NASDAQ: SOXX). On the one hand, data center demand is supporting growth while on the other, weaknesses in PCs and gaming are sapping the company’s strength. In this light, NVIDIA’s future revenue and earnings may trend flat or even decline while the gaming and PC industry undergo what company management calls an inventory correction.
OEMs are letting overstocked inventories of NVIDIA chips dwindle in an effort to realign those inventories with consumer demand and prepare for NVIDIA’s next generation of products. The takeaway for investors is that NVIDIA will likely lag the semiconductor market for the remainder of the year, along with PC-centric names like Intel (NASDAQ: INTC). At the same time, those with a more focused exposure to the data center and cloud-based demand like Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) should outperform. Regarding NVIDIA’s next generation of microprocessors, the GE Force RTX 40 series is rumored to be incredibly powerful and is expected to launch in October of this year. Still, it may be another quarter or two before the launch has an appreciable impact on the results.
NVIDIA HAS WEAK QUARTER, LOWERS GUIDANCE
NVIDIA had a weak quarter and it was made weaker by the fact the company warned on revenue and profit just a month before the release. In this light, the $6.7 billion in revenue is as expected and produced 2.9% YOY growth but well below the previous outlook, the company posted a double-digit sequential decline, and the guidance for the next quarter was cut drastically. On a segment basis, the company says data center demand increased by 61% over last year but was offset by weak PC and gaming sales. The gaming category sales were impacted by the decline in the cryptocurrency market as well but the company was unable to quantify the impact at this time.
Moving on to the margin and earnings, the news gets even worse. The combination of rising costs and deleveraging related to the sales slowdown trimmed more than 2000 basis points off of the GAAP and adjusted gross margin. This led to a significant decline in the operating margin that led to a greater than 70% decline in GAAP and adjusted operating margin. On the bottom line, the $0.51 in adjusted earnings is a penny better than expected which is the best news of the report but the slowdown in business has yet to bottom. Turning to the guidance, the company lowered its guidance for Q3 revenue to $5.90 billion compared to the Marketbeat.com consensus of $6.92 billion, a difference of 1450 basis points and there is a downside risk in the outlook.
NVIDIA INCREASES CAPITAL RETURNS
NVIDIA has a solid balance sheet and ample FCF that it uses to return capital to shareholders. The dividend is a paltry 0.10% compared to at least 2.0% for many of the dividend-paying chip stocks and better than 3.0% paid out by Broadcom. Broadcom is also a dividend-growth stock with attractive metrics in that regard and it should provide a more favorable outlook when it reports in the first week of September. NVIDIA also repurchases shares and bought back $2.04 billion worth during the quarter. That’s worth another 0.5% to investors, not counting the $11.93 billion still left under the current repurchase authorization.
Turning to the chart, shares of NVDA are down nearly 4% in premarket action as the stock continues to underperform relative to the semiconductor index in 2022. Shares of Broadcom, however, are edging higher on the NVIDIA news and are outperforming the industry by a fair margin.
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Nvidia forecasts sharp drop in third-quarter sales as games drag
By: Reuters | August 24, 2022
• Chip designer Nvidia Corp predicted third-quarter revenue below market expectations on Wednesday, delivering a one-two punch as weak gaming demand led to a 19% sequential decline in second-quarter sales.
(Reuters) -Graphics chip designer Nvidia Corp on Wednesday forecast a sharp drop in revenue in the current quarter on the back of a weak gaming industry.
The company said it expected third quarter revenue of $5.90 billion, down 17% on year, but said the declines would be partially offset by growth in the data center and automotive business.
“We are navigating our supply chain transitions in a challenging macro environment and we will get through this,” Nvidia’s chief executive Jensen Huang said in an earnings statement.
Nvidia’s shares dipped 2.8% in after hours trading, with second quarter revenue of $6.70 billion significantly lower than the $8.10 billion Nvidia forecast in May.
Its gaming division posted revenue of $2.04 billion, down 33% year on year. Data center revenue held up with $3.81 billion, up 61% year on year.
The gaming industry has been showing signs of weakness as consumers pull back from discretionary purchases such as video-gaming gear amid decades-high inflation.
Chipmakers have also been struggling with supply-chain snarls ahead of the key holiday period due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and COVID-19 curbs in China’s manufacturing hubs.
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History of Nvidia's $NVDA Q2 revenue since 2008
By: Bullish Rippers | August 24, 2022
• History of Nvidia's $NVDA Q2 revenue since 2008
Q2 2008: $893M
Q2 2009: $777M
Q2 2010: $811M
Q2 2011: $1B
Q2 2012: $1B
Q2 2013: $977M
Q2 2014: $1.1B
Q2 2015: $1.2B
Q2 2016: $1.4B
Q2 2017: $2.2B
Q2 2018: $3.1B
Q2 2019: $2.6B
Q2 2020: $3.9B
Q2 2021: $6.51B
Q2 2022: $6.70B
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Nvidia Stock is flat after hours
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Nvidia (NVDA) just reported earnings posting numbers of
By: Stock Market News | August 24, 2022
• Nvidia $NVDA just reported earnings posting numbers of
EPS of $0.51 beating expectations of $0.50
Rev of $6.70B in line with expectations
*NVIDIA SEES 3Q REV. $5.90B PLUS OR MINUS 2%, EST. $6.92B
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Nvidia Stock: Here’s What the Charts Say Now
By: TheStreet | August 24, 2022
• Nvidia recently preannounced disappointing news. Is that all of it or will another shoe drop?
Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday is set to report earnings after the market close, and technology investors should be watching closely.
The graphics-chip stalwart's report comes alongside that of Salesforce (CRM) , which also reports after the close (there’s a game plan for that stock, too).
FAANG reported its quarterly results last month and most of the semiconductor giants have reported. It’s been a mixed quarter overall, which combined with the bear market in technology stocks has made investing more difficult.
For what it’s worth, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) earlier this month reported a pretty good quarter. It beat earnings and revenue expectations, but guidance was light.
Guidance is a risk for Nvidia, too.
The company on Aug. 8 preannounced some concerning results. Nvidia said revenue would come in around $6.7 billion, short of analysts’ expectations at the time, which called for $8.1 billion.
Gaming revenue and guidance will be the focus. A significant shortfall here could trigger more selling pressure, while better-than-feared results could give some relief to the stock price.
What does that look like on the chart? Let’s examine.
Trading Nvidia Stock on Earnings
Daily chart of Nvidia stock.
Chart courtesy of TrendSpider.com
Since a new volume-based VWAP measure was established on May 26, this level has been both support and resistance for Nvidia stock.
Most recently, it’s been support, as has the 50-day moving average and the 50% retracement of the recent rally.
Collectively, that’s the $166 to $171 area — a $5 range of critical support.
That range is either going to act as a launch pad and send the shares higher or give out as support and the shares will move lower.
If it’s the former and Nvidia stock pushes higher on the earnings report, let’s see how the stock handles the $192 level. That area has been resistance on two separate occasions this month and marks the top of the recent rally.
If it can clear this level, $200 is next. That’s followed by the $208 to $210 zone, a significant former support level.
If, however, Nvidia stock reacts bearishly, it could open the door back down to $150 or lower. Along the way, there is a gap-fill level at $157.82.
Should Nvidia stock go on to trade below $150, the low at $140.55 could be in play, followed by the 200-week moving average.
Trading a stock ahead of earnings is different from being an investor in a stock who can sit through the ups and downs surrounding a report.
Traders must be much more prudent about their risk/reward profiles; thus trading ahead of an earnings report can be nearly impossible.
After the print, we’ll see which levels become support and which become resistance. Then traders can construct their trades around these new levels.
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Cathie Wood & Ark Invest's Sells 293,661 Shares of Nvidia (NVDA)
By: Ark Invest Daily | August 23, 2022
• Cathie Wood & Ark Invest's trade activity from today 8/23.
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Earnings Preview: Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA)
By: 24/7 Wall St. | August 23, 2022
• Here is what to expect when these four companies report results Wednesday afternoon.
Nvidia
From their peak in late November, shares of Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) have plummeted by nearly 47%. The semiconductor industry as a group has fallen by around 17% over the same period.
Earlier this month, the company said it expects its gaming division to put up lower sales than originally expected. Coupled with the 50% haircut to Bitcoin prices since late April, Nvidia has to look for growth from its data center business, where it competes with AMD and Intel, and continued success in its auto industry business. Nvidia expects to begin shipping its new Grace Hopper superchip early next year.
Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 32 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and another nine rate the shares at Hold. At a recent price of around $170.30 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $220.00 is 29.2%. At the high price target of $370.00, the upside potential is 117%.
For its second quarter of fiscal 2023, Nvidia’s revenue is forecast at $6.7 billion, which would be down 19.2% sequentially but 2.9% higher year over year. Adjusted EPS are forecast at $0.50, down 63.4% sequentially and by 51.9% year over year. For the full fiscal year ending in January, analysts are looking for EPS of $3.72, down 16.2%, on sales of $29.24 billion, up 8.6%.
Nvidia stock trades at 45.8 times expected 2023 EPS, 31.3 times estimated 2024 earnings of $5.44 and 26.3 times estimated 2025 earnings of $6.47 per share. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $140.55 to $346.47. The company pays an annual dividend of $0.16 (yield of 0.09%). Total shareholder return for the past year was negative 18.1%.
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Buy Potential Weakness in Nvidia After Earnings - KeyBanc
By: Investing.com | August 22, 2022
A KeyBanc analyst has raised estimates for AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) on the back of the strong cloud growth strength seen in July.
Overall, cloud growth soared 4% m/m and +25% y/y vs. +1% m/m and +23% y/y in June. AMD is seen as the biggest beneficiary as its Milan drove “significant growth at GCP and AWS.”
“AMD processor instances grew +21% m/m, +145% y/y, compared with June (+2% m/m, +110% y/y), led by Milan (+39% m/m), particularly at GCP and AWS. The prior generation, Rome, also posted +8% growth m/m, benefiting from Azure deployments,” the analyst said in a client note.
Data center estimates are now raised to $6.42 billion from $6.27 billion, leading to the increase of 2022E and 2023E EPS to $4.45 and $4.93 from $4.40 and $4.83, respectively.
As far as Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is concerned, the results were seen as “neutral” as instances grew modestly.
NVIDIA's (NASDAQ:NVDA) earnings also rose “solidly” in the last few months, led by Ampere and Turing. The chipmaker is due to report earnings on Wednesday after close and the analyst expects results that are “in line” with the Company's negative preannouncement on August 8.
On a more positive note, the analyst sees evidence that FQ2 could market the bottom for NVDA shares on the back of these 3 de-risked gaming estimates, pull-in of the launch of RTX40 into C4Q, and strong data center demand.
“We remain Overweight and would be buyers of NVDA,” he added in a separate note.
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Stock To Watch This Week: NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA)
By: Investing.com | August 21, 2022
• Zoom is struggling to maintain its pace of growth as many in-person activities resume.
• NVIDIA warned this month that its sales are being hurt by the slowdown in the PC market.
• Salesforce has provided a robust forecast for its annual sales, signaling that demand for business software is holding up.
U.S. equity markets are likely to remain volatile amid the uncertainty about the future direction of interest rates with investors seeming to be moving to the sidelines after a powerful summer rally.
Stocks ended their streak of four-week gains last week on speculation that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will reinforce the central bank’s resolve to stamp out inflation when he speaks on Friday during the three-day Wyoming conference.
Stocks have been choppy and lower in the past week as some analysts warned that the summer rebound isn’t justified when inflation is still running high, risking future growth. The S&P 500 finished down 1.2% for the week, its first decline after four weeks of gains.
Aside from interest rates and worries about growth, investors will also be watching some important earnings releases this week. Here are three we're following:
NVIDIA Corporation
Semiconductor giant NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) will report its second-quarter, FY2023 earnings on Wednesday, Aug. 24 after the market close. Analysts expect the chipmaker to produce an EPS of $0.529 on revenues of $6.83 billion.
NVIDIA, the largest U.S.-based chipmaker by market value, warned this month that its sales are being hurt by the slowdown in the PC market and the company won’t be able to meet its earlier revenue forecast.
The chipmaker now expects revenue of $6.7 billion for the quarter ended July 31, some 17% below the $8.1 billion it had forecast in May, amid a 33% drop in gaming revenue.
NVDA EPS Forecast Trend
Nvidia EPS Forecast Trend per InvestingPro+
Source: InvestingPro+
“Our gaming product sell-through projections declined significantly as the quarter progressed,” Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said in the statement. “As we expect the macroeconomic conditions affecting sell-through to continue, we took actions with our gaming partners to adjust channel prices and inventory.”
Following that announcement, Micron Technology (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:MU), another leading U.S. maker of memory chips, also warned investors that revenue wouldn't meet projections. NVDA stock fell on Friday by about 5% to close at $178.49. They are down 39% so far this year.
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NVDA $1.5 Million OTM Put Strike: 175 Expiration: 9/2023
By: Cheddar Flow | August 19, 2022
• $NVDA $1.5M OTM Put
Strike: 175
Expiration: 9/2023
*Opening Near Ask*
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Bear of the Day: Nvidia (NVDA)
By: Zacks Investment Research | August 19, 2022
Nvidia (NVDA) is a chip superstar that’s expanded its reach far beyond the gaming industry into data centers and beyond.
The GPU maker has, however, come under pressure due to slowing demand as consumers shift their spending habits. Nvidia on August 8 provided downbeat preliminary second quarter FY23 guidance that forced analysts to trim their earnings outlooks. And the stock is still down over 35% in 2022.
Nvidia Basics
Nvidia transformed into a Wall Street favorite in the chip space on the back of its ability to supply the growing gaming industry with great processors.
Yet it was NVDA’s expansion into and success within the booming world of data centers and cloud computing that establish Nvidia as a global technology titan and the largest U.S. chipmaker by market cap.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Despite its ability to grow over the long-haul within crucial tech industries, Nvidia is still exposed to the broader cyclical nature of the semiconductor market. Nvidia on August 8 offered up preliminary second quarter revenue guidance of $6.70 billion vs. its initial outlook of $8.10 billion, driven by a big slowdown in gaming.
Nvidia said that the shortfall relative to the May revenue outlook is “primarily attributable to lower sell-in of Gaming products reflecting a reduction in channel partner sales likely due to macroeconomic headwinds.” Nvidia said its overall Q2 revenue is still projected to climb 3% YoY, with data centers sales up 61% and gaming down 33%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bottom Line
The lowered gaming guidance was accompanied by slightly-lower-than-projected data center revenue. The new outlook is set to eat into its margins and bottom line. Nvidia’s updated earnings estimates help it land a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) at the moment, alongside its “F” grades for Value and Momentum in our Style Score system.
Nvidia’s Semiconductor – General industry is currently in the bottom third of over 250 Zacks industries. NVDA stock is down around 36% in 2022 and it’s still trading at 48.8X forward 12-month earnings vs. its industry’s 25.1X average.
NVDA is, of course, one of the largest tech stocks on the planet and it’s poised to thrive over the long-haul. But it might be prudent for investors to shy away from Nvidia for the moment until it provides updated full-year guidance when it officially reports on August 24.
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US chipmakers hit by sudden downturn after pandemic boom
By: Financial Times | August 17, 2022
• Intel, Micron set to cut capital spending despite new law aiming to boost production.
Nvidia, the biggest maker of graphics processing units, or GPUs, used in video graphics and machine learning systems, last week pre-announced an even bigger revenue miss, as sales of its gaming chips fell 44 percent from the preceding quarter. And Micron, one of the largest makers of memory chips, said its free cash flow was likely to turn negative in the next three months, after averaging $1 billion in recent quarters.
The stresses have also been felt throughout Asia. Late last week, the chief executive of Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation said demand had slowed from smartphone and other consumer electronics makers, with some stopping orders altogether. A month before, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company said it was expecting an inventory correction that would last until late next year.
The abrupt slide has left chipmakers in the US trying to manage a decline at the very moment that they were laying the ground for a huge increase in production because of the $52 billion in government support provided by this month’s Chips Act.
On the same day that Congress passed the law, Intel, which is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of government grants, sliced $4 billion from its capital spending plans for the rest of this year, although it said that it was still committed to a “strong and growing dividend” for its shareholders.
Meanwhile, Micron, which celebrated President Joe Biden’s signing of the legislation last week with the announcement that it planned to invest $40 billion in the US by the end of the decade, was forced just a day later to say it would cut its capital spending “meaningfully” next year because of the downturn.
For now, most chip supply chain experts predict a relatively shallow downturn, provided that the global economy is heading for a soft landing. But the speed with which things have turned has left them scrambling to understand the complex dynamics at work.
Gartner, which had been expecting the growth in global chip sales this year to halve from 2021’s 26 percent, took its forecast down further to 7 percent and is now predicting a 2.5 percent contraction in 2023 to $623 billion.
For now, Wall Street has taken the news in its stride. The Philadelphia semiconductor index, which comprises the 30 largest US companies involved in the design, manufacture, and sale of semiconductors, fell back almost 40 percent as the stock market corrected this year after rising three-fold following the early pandemic stock market slump. But since early July, despite mounting evidence of the chip slowdown, the index has rebounded 24 percent.
On Monday, Nvidia’s shares climbed back above the level they were trading at before its earnings disappointment, even though it disclosed a savage 17 percent shortfall in revenue compared with earlier expectations.
But after the severe inventory and supply chain stresses of the past two years, few analysts are confident that they can judge how an economic slowdown will feed through the industry. Hopes that the slide would be largely restricted to the PC and smartphone markets have already been dashed.
While a collapse in demand in the gaming market was the main cause for Nvidia’s earnings disappointment, the US chipmaker also said its sales of data center chips had only risen 1 percent from the preceding three months, compared with Wall Street expectations of closer to 10 percent. It blamed supply shortages rather than falling demand, although other indications, including a fall-off at Intel, have fed the suspicion that the booming cloud computing market has cooled rapidly.
In recent days, the signs of retrenchment have broadened. Micron finance chief Mark Murphy said last week that industrial and automotive customers were the latest to cut their chip purchases.
“It’s a very recent development,” he added, making it too early to tell whether these customers are simply making an adjustment after a rapid inventory build-up, or whether they are responding to falling demand from their own customers.
Either way, according to Murphy, the result has been the same: “We’re seeing clear signs of weakness in those markets.”
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Bank of America Warns Nvidia May Have to Cut Guidance Again to Drive Necessary Reset
By: Investing.com | August 17, 2022
A Bank of America analyst sees the potential for another guide-down from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) next week.
The analyst sees downside risk in the current consensus for the Q3 outlook. A guide-down would be “unwelcome” but he admits that it might be necessary to clear decks.
“This 'second cut' could clear the decks ahead of the upcoming new 5nm gaming (Lovelace) and data center (Hopper, Grace) pipeline,” the analyst wrote in a client note.
The analyst is especially worried about the Q3 revenue guidance, which may call for sales between $6 billion and $6.5 billion, lower than the consensus of $7 billion to $7.5 billion.
As far as the data center revenue is concerned, he expects “flattish” revenue growth QoQ “or down slightly on supply headwinds.”
“We currently forecast NVDA FY24/CY23E data center at $17.8bn, 16% YoY, below street’s implied 18%-21% YoY forecast and well-below our original 30-40% YoY expectation from a few months ago.”
All-in-all, Bank of America analyst remains positive, especially ahead of the Fall 2022 GPU Tech Conference (GTC), which is scheduled for Sep 19-22, as it could act as the next product news catalyst.
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Nvidia (NVDA) Getting tight inside this wedge with a volume gap to the upside starting around ~$200
By: TrendSpider | August 16, 2022
• $NVDA Getting tight inside this wedge with a volume gap to the upside starting around ~$200.
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$NVDA *SIZE* ~ 1.35 million shares at $187.94 #darkpool activity
By: Money Flow Mel | August 16, 2022
• $NVDA *SIZE* #darkpool activity ~ 1.35 million shares at $187.94.
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Nvidia Nearing a potential breakout through the symmetrical triangle resistance zone
By: Jake Wujastyk | August 16, 2022
• $NVDA #NVDA Nearing a potential breakout through the symmetrical triangle resistance zone.
Gaps way above as targets with an upside breakout.
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Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) Over 195 then 210 is the next big resistance level
By: Options Mike | August 14, 2022
• $NVDA 100D next target here then recent highs. Over 195 then 210 is the next big resistance level.
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KeyCorp Research Analysts Decrease Earnings Estimates for NVIDIA Co. (NVDA)
By: MarketBeat | August 11, 2022
• NVIDIA Co. (NASDAQ:NVDA - Get Rating) - Equities researchers at KeyCorp lowered their Q3 2023 earnings estimates for shares of NVIDIA in a research note issued to investors on Monday, August 8th. KeyCorp analyst J. Vinh now anticipates that the computer hardware maker will post earnings per share of $0.85 for the quarter, down from their previous forecast of $0.95. KeyCorp currently has a "Overweight" rating and a $230.00 price objective on the stock. The consensus estimate for NVIDIA's current full-year earnings is $4.48 per share. KeyCorp also issued estimates for NVIDIA's Q1 2024 earnings at $0.94 EPS, Q2 2024 earnings at $1.06 EPS, Q3 2024 earnings at $1.22 EPS, Q4 2024 earnings at $1.23 EPS and FY2024 earnings at $4.46 EPS...
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Nvidia Getting lots of hits as it tries to fill the gap
By: Cheddar Flow | August 11, 2022
• $NVDA Getting lots of hits as it tries to fill the gap.
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$NVDA made a potential weekly cycle high last week, 18 weeks from the late March high
By: CyclesFan | August 9, 2022
• $NVDA made a potential weekly cycle high last week, 18 weeks from the late March high. We have a weekly swing high at the moment. In order to confirm that the weekly cycle high is in it will have to close the week below the 10 week MA that is currently at 167.37.
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Cathie Wood & Ark Invest's Buys 336,298 More Shares of Nvidia (NVDA)
By: Ark Invest Daily | August 8, 2022
• Cathie Wood & Ark Invest's trade activity from today 8/8.
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AMD, Nvidia Have Near Term Concerns, but BofA Looks to Product Cycles
By: investing.com | August 8, 2022
A BofA analyst maintained a Buy rating on NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) on Monday, telling investors in a research note that there are near-term concerns about semiconductor stocks, but they are looking towards product cycles.
BofA monthly analysis of Steam's GPU survey highlights continued AMD and NVDA mix improvements, but weaker third-party pricing still raises yellow flags, said the analyst.
"Notably, top gaming cards on the retail market are selling at an average 11% premium (relative to MSRP) versus upwards of a 160% premium last year. Following AMD's weak Q2 gaming commentary (gaming graphics down QoQ in JunQ/SepQ), we acknowledge a potential upcoming gaming correction (a notable near-term headwind for NVDA as well, as we highlight in our cautious FQ2 outlook)," the analyst explained. "Still, following any near-term demand deceleration, we see potential for a large upgrade cycle bolstered by new AMD (RDNA3 GPUs) and NVDA (Lovelace RTX40xx series) cards."
Nvidia shares tumbled more than 8% Monday after it cut its quarterly revenue forecast following a gaming slump. Meanwhile, AMD is down 3%.
"We maintain Buy on AMD/NVDA, exposed to robust cloud capex (see report), new product launches (NVDA 5nm Hopper accelerator/Grace CPU, AMD Genoa 5nm) and a discrete GPU market that has grown at a consistent 10%-15% CAGR," concluded the analyst.
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Nvidia expects second-quarter revenue to drop on gaming weakness
By: Reuters | August 8, 2022
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) Corp said on Monday it expects second-quarter revenue of about $6.70 billion, down 19% from the prior quarter, largely hurt by weakness in its gaming business.
The company is scheduled to report second-quarter results on Aug. 24.
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Nvidia (NVDA) 100D and 195 area big spot to clear, over it then 200-203
By: Options Mike | August 7, 2022
• $NVDA 100D and 195 area big spot to clear, over it then 200-203.
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Nvidia Co. (NVDA) Given Average Recommendation of "Moderate Buy" by Analysts
By: MarketBeat | August 7, 2022
• Shares of NVIDIA Co. (NASDAQ:NVDA - Get Rating) have been assigned an average recommendation of "Moderate Buy" from the thirty-five research firms that are covering the firm, MarketBeat reports. Five equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold recommendation and twenty have issued a buy recommendation on the company. The average 12 month target price among brokerages that have issued ratings on the stock in the last year is $252.24...
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$NVDA Over the last decade, August has been the strongest month of the year for Nvidia
By: TrendSpider | August 6, 2022
• $NVDA Over the last decade, August has been the strongest month of the year for Nvidia.
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$NVDA at 21-Weekly SMA here
By: TrendSpider | August 5, 2022
• $NVDA at 21-Weekly SMA here.
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http://www.nvidia.com
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation provides visual computing technologies designed to generate interactive graphics on consumer and professional computing devices
in the United States and internationally. It operates in four segments: Graphic Processing Unit (GPU), Media and Communications Processor (MCP),
Professional Solutions Business (PSB), and Consumer Products Business (CPB).
The GPU segment comprises products that support desktop and notebook personal computers, and plus memory products.
The MCP segment consists of NVIDIA nForce core logic and motherboard GPU products.
The PSB segment offers professional workstation products and other professional graphics products, including high-performance computing products.
The CPB segment provides mobile brands and products that support handheld personal media players, personal digital assistants, cellular phones,
and other handheld devices. This segment also licenses video game consoles and other digital consumer electronics devices.
The company markets its products to original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, add-in-card manufacturers, system builders,
and consumer electronics companies. NVIDIA was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
<img data-cke-saved-src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=nvda&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p31506003373&a=81927329&r=373"; src="http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=nvda&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&i=p31506003373&a=81927329&r=373"; >"="" alt="">
| PER IHUB MGMT 02-07-2021 DISCLAIMER; JUST TO MAKE SOME THINGS CLEAR I AM NOT AH FINANCIAL ADVISIOR & NOT AH BROKER. I AM JUST AH REGULAR GENT DAT LIKES TO CHAT CHATTER ON MANY COMPANIES. SOME I OWN AH LOT I DON'T. SO NOT RESPONSIBLE ANYTHING I DISCRIBE. DA MICK. |
AI
