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At what pps do you decide to cover?
maybe the BET now is
exciting closing 30 minutes -- plus or minus 30 cents or more
middle
boring - plus or minus a Dime from say 8.05
will it hold $8 or will it collapse back into the $7's to hit another all time low tomorrow.
Jmho
Current tug of war
Solid production and sales and delivery
Vs
huge short position
Settling around 8.35 right now but IMO could end up a $1 or down a $1 from the $8.35 by end of today
72 delivered is impressive - a 300 a year or so run rate if repeated and repeated
Yahoo Finance says:
Outstanding shares 45.22M
Float shares 43.83M
That seems right post split. (Maybe it’s rounded up or down to nearest million)
Interview with Nikolas supply chain manager
https://altair.com/blog/articles/future-of-heavy-duty-vehicles
First posted on Nikola’s x feed
Does anyone know the actual share float? E-Trade keeps show 45 million shares outstanding.
They will not have made any BEV trucks this quarter.
Hopefully they are close to returning all the customer BEVs recalled (that was the plan). next quarter they can start upgrading the inventory of BEVs to BEV 2.0 and selling them. so would then be shipments but not “production”
I would expect new production for BEV to be in late 24 early 25 and may depend on which gives better long term margin improvements - BEV or FCEV
I think I saw it was Proterra
And from their web page - reading annual and quarterly transcripts - seems the $$ potential (selling out the inventory v repairing at NKLA cost) is now CY 25
tug of war - as I look at a chart for the day
still not lunch time
still not close of day
can we see 8.50 if this current about 8+ holds and holds ? and some shorts (like the two that have visited this board recently) get nervous and buy to cover
I hope you are right
At same time - lower sales than desired can TOO easily be blamed on "supply chain issues" these days
Yes - at higher volume (I assume some step function as I was taught in b school) will reduce the cost of parts and make availability simpler (especially important in days where no company wants to "store parts" or "have cash sitting" there)
And to get to 300 - will we see 30-40 percent increases in sales (out the door) each quarter? and can and will that be done without a second shift or huge OT
That is the bull case --- more and more trucks pushed out the door - lowering production costs (until you hit some bump like too much OT) and increasing "incoming cash" so that one is cash level (even if on paper depreciation and such creates a loss)
A great speculation
UK, any thoughts as to why no mention of the BEV trucks? Who is providing the batteries to both the BEV and hydrogen trucks?
Sales is not the issue
Supply is restricted by the supply chain. From the Q2 numbers it seems Girsky has been able to get their suppliers to increase shipments and so exceed planned out puts.
In parallel his strategy is to get major companies to commit to large orders following a trial period. these can then be used to help suppliers know they can scale up their end and reduce costs since the orders will be there in say 9 months time after successful trials.
So orders are not the problem - just check the California HVIP - but Nikola will prioritise who gets trucks (now obviously going to ship. to large customers first, and also where they are planning to use the initial trucks with respect to the H2 refueling network
IMO
That is the financial situation
The great news today - propels PPS then it drops - as no one knows the answers --- two camps of thought
And Longs here may hate me but I fully expect NKLA will need say 200MM more equity based cash
So I really want that delayed and a PPS at least the one the day of the R/S
Shorts are trying to avoid having to cover -- avoid being burned badly --- and if they lose or panic a bit -- we will see 8 today (from this NON chartist)
DNU, great financial related questions I don't have the answers to. As I said previously, not my strength, I usually rely on you and others on the board to provide insights into the financial related issues for Nikola.
yes
SO FAR TESLAD defied the critics and shorts and shorts and shorts
(we will see what CHINA does DYI etc.)
yes - it would be great if NKLA did half as well in production and sales and then PPS
NKLA appears - appears - to have a solid alternative semi unique product and is 1 2 3 in H Class 8
The question remains ---- how fast will sales increase (and maybe meaningful net income from HYLA) and thus incoming CASH --- and how fast will expenses eat up cash (For example - are expenses per quarter - on a CASH basis !! - going down for four quarters or will we hear of a 100M capital need ? Could a second shift - with its added variable costs - provide greater margins on produced trucks - if we get there etc.
DNU, not trucks, but EVs, as opposed to diesel or gasoline vehicles, so good news for all EV companies in general. I've mentioned before that I consider the only competition to Nikola to be from diesel trucks. Following is a chart of Tesla's growth through 2022. Hopefully Nikola will follow a similar trend.
I assume ----- 100% assumption
That right now there is a huge battle between shorts and longs ---- given a solid Q2
Lets see by lunch
Lets see by COB
GREAT
GREAT
72 in one quarter is solid and solid (note the wording suggest each went out the door to customers or dealers?)
So
40 Q1 of 2024
72 Q2 of 2024
and the below from the Q1 transcript - show ?
Wholesale deliveries of 50-60 FCEVs in Q2 2024 • Wholesale deliveries of 300-350 FCEVs in FY 2024
Does the group - the bulls with DD sources - believe NKLA can hit 300 in FY24 --- which means 188 in the final two quarters produced and sold
How is that perspective?
Is that class 8 trucks ?
To put things in perspective, quote "For the quarter, Tesla reported global production of 479,700 units with deliveries of 466,140." Source https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-q2-deliveries-easily-top-estimates-as-price-cuts-take-effect-163826255.html
Nevertheless, good news for EVs in general.
UK, great news, thanks. Nikola nearly doubled the wholesale hydrogen FCEVs from Q1 (40) to Q2 (72), indicating a very positive trend.
and just like that they do announce bette rthan guided numbers:
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/nikola-NKLA/stock-news/94136225/nikola-wholesales-72-hydrogen-fuel-cell-trucks-for
For Q2 2024, Nikola Corporation (Nasdaq: NKLA), a global leader in zero-emissions transportation and energy supply and infrastructure solutions, via the HYLA brand, wholesaled 72 Class 8 Nikola hydrogen fuel cell trucks, above the high end of truck sales guidance of 60 units.
For the first half of 2024, Nikola wholesaled 112 hydrogen fuel cell trucks.
"We have maintained our 2024 momentum with solid wholesale numbers, new customers such as Walmart Canada, and repeat customers like 4GEN and IMC, purchasing vehicles through our dealer network," said Nikola CEO Steve Girsky. "We are firmly on the field and are continuing to secure our first-mover advantage in zero-emissions Class 8 trucks in North America, as well as with our HYLA hydrogen refueling solutions."
All Nikola trucks are assembled in Coolidge, Ariz.
Follow up on previous Mission Hydrogen webinar post by David Wenger, Mission Hydrogen GmbH, based in Germany (for context).
The Japanese word for “Future” is “Mirai” – and that’s also the name of the current Toyota fuel cell vehicle. I’ve had one for three years. Last week, I handed it back to the Toyota dealer because the leasing contract had expired.
It’s time to say “Goodbye Mirai” or “Goodbye Future.” The “Future” is now history.
Here are a few thoughts on my experience (also available on https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dawenger_mirai-future-toyota-activity-7213583238533918724-AaTZ)
- The reliability of the car was 100%. No issues at all. That's certainly good news.
- I have done 44,859 km over three years. Not very much, but still. It was used for my daily trips to the office, but also to customer meetings etc. - everyday scenarios. It worked well.
- My team used it as well whenever they needed a car.
- The refueling station nearby (some 7 min from home and some 10 min from the office) was very helpful. I only remember one situation when it was not operational, but it did not really matter that day.
- Other refueling stations I have used regularly where the ones in Switzerland and some other stations in the south of Germany. No big deal, everything was fine (with a few exceptions, but no major problems).
- I have never done a 1,000+ km trip or so. I try to avoid that anyway, but even more with such a car.
- The typical consumption was 1.1 kg per 100 km, and the hydrogen price in Germany is € 15.75 including 19% VAT. Yes, that's expensive, but the main problem is that nobody is making any money along the value chain. That's a big problem.
- The only real complaints I got were from my kids. I have three kids, and the Mirai is certainly not suitable for a family. If young kids complain about missing legroom in a car it's certainly time to think about the overall vehicle concept.
- My own "WTF" typically came when I tried to transport goods of any kind. Sorry my friends at Toyota, but the trunk is a disaster. I think a cargo bike would do a better job. No matter how much you like the hydrogen experience: this is a no go.
- The second "WTF" was about the UX and the map. I don't know who designed it, but Toyota is lightyears behind Tesla and other OEMs.
- The third "WTF" was about the range indicator. I was told it's very conservative to be on the safe side. I can understand that, but why don't you tell me "you have 1.2 kg H2 left" somewhere? That would give me the opportunity to do my own math if necessary. If you tell me that I have 50 km left (with an unknown 70 km of safety margin)...not what I need.
And to answer the most important question again: I had the car to get real life experience - and talk about it. I am not one of those PowerPoint heroes, and I don't want to rely on Google research. I want first hand experience in everything I do. Mission accomplished.
While my project has come to an end, Toyota is still pushing forward, especially on the heavy duty side.
On Wednesday, we'll do a webinar on the "Toyota Hydrogen Strategy for Heavy Duty" with Vincent Mattelaer (Toyota Motor Europe) and Jackie Birdsall (Toyota North America). Both of them are among the leading experts within Toyota, and both of them are very famous hydrogen ambassadors, too.
I promise you: You will learn a lot, and they will certainly be able to answer 99% of your questions.
Join for free: www.mission-hydrogen.com (and yes, we will talk about my experience, too).
Mission Hydrogen GmbH
David Wenger
Einsteinstrasse 55
89077 Ulm
Germany
let's see what the quarters production/delivery numbers are. hopefully we get those today.
if they show they are able to scale up the production line and supply chain then we wait for the longer term forecasts at the quarterly report.
I haven't seen anything “bad” so far this year
A pretty Bleak future.
Absolutely no reason to close positions based on the performance of the company...yes there may be a short-term bounce, but the trend continues to be downward especially with the looming dilution that the management team left overhanging the stock.
all jmho
oops meant to say ---- noted when PPS is/was 7.43
not advice to any one person or all persons
time to close short positions
smu4u - You use way too many words to say NKLA is worth less than $0.25 !
Another all-time low, and it is still falling....such quality management.
DNU, nuclear energy can be used to produce the hydrogen to fuel Nikola's hydrogen FCEV trucks. It has the potential to be the cheapest production method for clean hydrogen. However, just like other sources of clean hydrogen, it currently requires subsidies to make it competitive with diesel, as well as dirty methods to produce hydrogen. One stumbling block, is that the preliminary guidelines released at the end of 2023 by the Treasury Department to qualify for the very generous $3/kg hydrogen production tax credit, excludes nuclear power (as well as hydropower). This rules are currently under review, and the hope is that they are modified to include nuclear power.
I think Nuclear - in its 2024 "look" ----- deserves more attention and use
Not sure how it would be used by thousands of Class 8 trucks
note - solar is growing super fast too --- but a solar car is not anything soon either
the market - not articles and our opinions - will tell us soon if large class 8 trucks is a solid place for H
Modern reactors are safer
Today’s reactor designs also have far more safety features than older installations. These range from duplicate emergency cooling systems to prevent overheating even if some systems fail, through to so-called “core catchers” that would contain the reactor core in a worst-case meltdown event.
Some designs will cool passively in the event of a loss of power to the cooling circuit (as happened at Fukushima). The heat from the core will gradually dissipate from the walls of the pressure vessel and through the cooling circuit by convection. The reactors that are being constructed today benefit from 60 years of experience gained in the design and operation of nuclear power plants around the world.
But future reactor technologies –- so-called “Gen IV” designs – offer even better inherent safety. One of their key features are fully passive cooling systems so the reactor is never dependent on external power for safety. The reactor is carefully designed so that overheating actually reduces, rather than increases, the power output of the core. The core and cooling systems are not pressurised, and using liquids other than water for cooling prevents the risk of creating hydrogen: both of which drastically reduce the risk of explosions as occurred at Fukushima.
Power plant of the future. Idaho National Laboratory/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY
Gen IV reactors will also allow more efficient use of nuclear fuel. The fuel in current reactor designs is used only once and then disposed of, which produces radioactive waste that will take hundreds of millennia to decay to a safe level. But this waste contains valuable resources of fissile material that can be reprocessed into new fuel. Burning this fuel in specialised “fast” reactors provides would be much more efficient and generate waste that decays safely within just a hundred years or so. It would also move us towards a closed fuel-cycle that would greatly extend the lifetime of the Earth’s uranium reserves.
https://theconversation.com/nuclear-power-is-set-to-get-a-lot-safer-and-cheaper-heres-why-62207
https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/safety-of-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power
Nuclear Power is the Most Reliable Energy Source and It's Not Even Close
March 24, 2021
Nuclear energy is America’s work horse.
It’s been rolling up its sleeves for six decades now to provide constant, reliable, carbon-free power to millions of Americans.
Just how reliable has nuclear energy been?
It has roughly supplied a fifth of America’s power each year since 1990.
To better understand what makes nuclear so reliable, take a look at the graph below.
As you can see, nuclear energy has by far the highest capacity factor of any other energy source. This basically means nuclear power plants are producing maximum power more than 93% of the time during the year.
That’s about 1.5 to 2 times more as natural gas and coal units, and 2.5 to 3.5 times more reliable than wind and solar plants.
https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close
Mission Hydrogen webinar "The Toyota Hydrogen Strategy for Heavy Duty."
Date: Wednesday, July 03
Time: 16:00 CEST | 07:00 am Pacific | 10:00 am Eastern | 07:30 pm IST | 10:00 pm AWST
Duration: 90 minutes
Join for free: www.mission-hydrogen.com
Background
The first country in the world to adopt a national hydrogen strategy was Japan. One of the driving forces behind was the largest OEM, Toyota Motor Corporation.
Toyota has had their own vision of a decarbonized mobility for decades, and hydrogen has always been at the center of their activities. Currently, Toyota has several vehicles on the market, including the Mirai (passenger car), a prototype of the Hilux (pickup truck) and several heavy duty trucks (including vehicles in cooperation with other OEMs such as Kenworth, Isuzu and Daimler Buses).
In our next webinar, Toyota will present their current hydrogen strategy for heavy duty vehicles, including their vision of the infrastructure.
The speakers are:
Vincent Mattelaer, Toyota Motor Europe: Vincent has been with TME since 2007, and he is responsible for the European hydrogen R&D activities including standardization (SAE, CEN, ISO), the development of the necessary refueling protocols and EU projects.
Jackie Birdsall, Toyota North America: Jackie is the Senior Engineering Manager of the Fuel Cell Integration Group at Toyota Motor North America and was once called the “Fuel Cell Rockstar” by the press. With 20+ years of experience, 171,216 followers on LinkedIn and thousands of hours of hands-on vehicle testing experience (yes, these activities with wrenches and screwdrivers out in the Death Valley to fix issues before the vehicles are delivered) Jackie is one of the most experienced and knowledgeable hydrogen leaders out there.
Jackie and Vincent will share their decades of experience with you and explain:
- Why Toyota believes in hydrogen
- What their long term vision for zero-emission mobility is
- What vehicles Toyota has under development and what they will look like (ok, they cannot share the secrets, but they will give you an overview)
- What kind of hydrogen infrastructure Toyota needs
- What the difference is between Europe, North America and Japan in terms of hydrogen mobility
- What Codes&Standards they have helped to develop, and what is still needed
- What you can do e.g. as a supplier to be part of the game
- As always, they will answer your questions regarding technology, vehicles and market.
smu4u - Are you Pumping NKLA ?
I don't have time for you. Your train has left the station.
it's certainly not going to be 30 time more the expense of production
smu4u - Cost of Production ?
Tell us what is the Cost at the Pump !
The point of sale.
No one is going to pay $250. To fill a Honda.
The economics of hydrogen production depend on the efficiency of the method used. The IS cycle coupled to a modular high temperature reactor is expected to produce hydrogen at about $2.00/kg. The oxygen byproduct also has value. General Atomics earlier projected $1.53/kg based on a 2400 MWt HTR operating at 850°C with 42% overall efficiency, and $1.42/kg at 950°C and 52% efficiency (both 10.5% discount rate). Such a plant could produce 800 tonnes of hydrogen per day.
For thermochemical processes an overall efficiency of greater than 50% is projected.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=162111693
FCEV'S are DOA !
i was expecting price gouging in the usa years ago. typical 😒
Smu4u - Have you seen the Market for FCEV's ? $30+ per "Gallon" / kg.
Toyota cuts the price by 40+%,.
Zero Resale?
Honda is charging DOUBLE for their hydrogen CRV.
NKLA new symbol: RIP
Italy’s Meloni denounces ‘ideological madness’ of EU ban on gas and diesel cars
JUNE 26, 2024 11:49 AM CET
The ban on the sale of new gas or diesel cars in the EU from 2035 "makes no sense" and the Italian government will work to "correct" it, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said today.
"Reducing polluting emissions is the path we want to follow, but with common sense," Meloni said in a speech to the Italian parliament ahead of the EU leaders' summit starting Thursday.
"The green perspective has been pursued even at the cost of sacrificing entire production and industrial sectors, such as the automotive industry," Meloni added, criticizing the 2035 measure she said would "condemn [Europe] to new strategic dependencies, such as China's electric [vehicles]."
https://www.politico.eu/article/italys-meloni-denounces-ideological-madness-of-eu-ban-on-gas-and-diesel-cars/
Nearly half of American EV owners want to switch back to gas-powered vehicle, McKinsey data shows
June 26, 2024 6:00am EDT
A significant share of Americans who own an electric vehicle have buyer's remorse, according to new data.
McKinsey & Co.'s Mobility Consumer Pulse for 2024, released this month, found that 46% of EV owners in the U.S. said they were "very" likely to switch back to owning a gas-powered vehicle in their next purchase.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/nearly-half-american-ev-owners-want-switch-back-gas-powered-vehicle-mckinsey-data-shows
Yup
and when they order 100 -- shizam
Another all time low coming(Tom Petty's Free Falling playing now)...such a quality management team. Just wait for the next round of dilution to kick in, less than a year they will be doing another RS.
all jmho.
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Nikola and VectoIQ Acquisition Corp. Announce Closing of Business Combination
Published June 03, 2020
https://nikolamotor.com/press_releases/nikola-and-vectoiq-acquisition-corp-announce-closing-of-business-combination-77
Steve Girsky
Girsky was GM Vice Chairman from March 2010 through January 2014. During that time he was responsible for several functional areas, including:
Global corporate strategy,
New business development,
Global product planning and program management,
Global connected customer/OnStar, and
GM Ventures LLC and global research & development.
Girsky also served as Chairman of the Adam Opel AG Supervisory Board and as interim President of GM Europe during this time frame, a critical period in
which the company established its current 'Drive Opel 2022' strategy. Girsky also held responsibility for GM's Global Purchasing and Supply Chain function
from 2011 to 2013, and served as Senior Advisor to General Motors from January 2014 to July 2014.
https://investor.gm.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gm-announces-stephen-girsky-retire-board-directors
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shell-stuffing-how-nikola-became-vectoiqs-public-preference
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=165678224
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=165764942
Nikola and TC Energy Sign Joint Development Agreement
for Co-Development of Large-Scale Clean Hydrogen Hubs
October 7, 2021
Nikola and TC Energy sign joint development agreement for co-development of large-scale clean hydrogen hubs. Nikola Corporation (Nasdaq: NKLA), (Nikola),
a global leader in zero-emissions transportation and energy infrastructure solutions, and TC Energy Corporation (TSX,NYSE: TRP), (TC Energy), a leading
North American energy infrastructure company, have agreed to collaborate on co-developing, constructing, operating and owning large-scale hydrogen
production facilities (hubs) in the United States and Canada.
https://hydrogen-central.com/nikola-tc-energy-agreement-hydrogen-hubs/
#NationalHydrogenDay celebrations continue with a sneak peek of all things happeningat our Coolidge
manufacturing facility, including our Nikola Tre #FCEV, for our next episode of the #DrivingChange series!
1:57 PM · Oct 8, 2021
https://twitter.com/i/status/1446565427493044225
Hydrogen Heavy Duty Vehicle Industry Group Partners to Standardize Hydrogen Refueling,
Bringing Hydrogen Closer to Wide Scale Adoption
Published October 08, 2021
https://nikolamotor.com/press_releases/hydrogen-heavy-duty-vehicle-industry-group-partners-
to-standardize-hydrogen-refueling-bringing-hydrogen-closer-to-wide-scale-adoption-137
Gettin' it done. Season 2 of #DrivingChange starts with the continued journey
of the #NikolaTre FCEV alpha builds in Coolidge, Arizona.
November 3, 2021
https://www.facebook.com/nikolamotorcompany/videos/driving-change-season-2-episode-1-
get-it-done/1259891077770836/?__so__=permalink&__rv__=related_videos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RokrKePeRrk
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