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Kiplinger Magazine
21 Stocks to Make You Rich
Monday June 11, 2:59 pm ET
Of the infinite number of possible stock-picking strategies, one that we particularly like can be summed up in three words: The pros know. In other words, ask the experts what stocks they're buying and you're likely to come up with some pretty good ideas. Last year, we asked seven top portfolio managers to name their favorites, and their 22 choices returned an average of 29% to May 14, well ahead of the 18% gain of Standard & Poor's 500-stock index (for more details, see Our Team Gains 29%).
Now we've rounded up a new group of outstanding managers using the same simple criteria we used to pick last year's bunch: They all have produced superior records, over both the short term and the long term. When these folks discuss their best investing ideas, it's worth listening in.
A Berkshire bent
Many a mutual fund manager has bolted to the free-wheeling, less-regulated, potentially more lucrative hedge-fund world. Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue have done almost the reverse. They launched their first hedge fund in January 1999 (it returned an annualized 11%, after fees, to May 1, compared with an annualized gain of 4% for the S&P 500). Then in March 2005 they unveiled Tilson Focus, a concentrated mutual fund that invests in undervalued companies of all sizes. It returned 20% over the past year.
Tilson and Tongue look for safety, low price and rapidly growing value when they shop for stocks. If this reminds you of a certain investor in Omaha, it's for good reason. "We admit to being loyal Buffett disciples," says Tilson.
No surprise then that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) is Tilson Focus's largest holding. Tilson and Tongue see safety in Buffett's triple-A-rated holding company: "Its balance sheet is Fort Knox-safe," says Tongue. The value of Berkshire's operating companies in particular, such as Geico, Gen Re and Shaw Industries, is compounding at a furious pace. Tilson says that pretax earnings of Berkshire's operating companies swelled by more than 30% a year from 1995 through 2006.
And Tilson and Tongue reckon that the shares are still cheap. When they apply a modest price multiple to the operating businesses and add the value of Berkshire's cash, bonds and big stakes in publicly traded companies, such as Coca-Cola, Moody's and American Express, they arrive at an intrinsic value of $150,000 a share for Berkshire, a 36% premium to the stock price of $110,000 (Berkshire Class B shares change hands for a mere $3,668).
The story with McDonald's (MCD) is different. This is a remarkable turnaround that Wall Street has consistently underestimated. The stock price has tripled since Tilson and Tongue first bought shares for their hedge fund in December 2002. A stream of successful new-product launches, such as McGriddles, salads and premium coffee, has produced more revenues (sales at stores open at least one year surged a tasty 8.2% in March) through a fixed asset base, resulting in rapidly expanding profit margins. Tilson thinks the stock, recently $51, is worth at least $60 a share.
Mueller Water Products (MWA) is a more traditional deep-value pick. Spun off from Walter Industries late last year, Mueller is the leading maker and supplier of water-infrastructure products, such as fire hydrants, valves, couplings and transmission pipes. The stock, which sells at a small premium to book value (assets minus liabilities), has been depressed by the housing recession. But the water infrastructure in the U.S. is in urgent need of repair or replacement, so Tilson thinks it's just a matter of time before Mueller's flow of profits increases. He sees more than 50% upside in the stock, recently trading at $16.
Overseas and out-of-favor
Since launching Causeway International Value fund in 2001, Sarah Ketterer hasn't been afraid to go against the grain. She favors companies that are attractively priced because of temporary difficulties, and she will take large positions in a country or sector if the fund's strict stock-picking regimen determines that's where the values are. With a $5-billion portfolio of large-company stocks, the fund seemingly has lots of room to grow. Yet Ketterer closed it to new investors to retain the flexibility to move back into midsize companies when prices in that segment moderate. Investors who got in before the doors were locked have been rewarded with a 17% annualized return over the past five years, which was achieved with relatively low volatility.
One of Ketterer's top picks, Sanofi-Aventis (SNY), illustrates how she achieves those low-risk returns. Shares of the Paris-based drug giant have fallen about 9% since July 2006 because of concerns about generic competition and delays in the launch of its anti-obesity product, Acomplia. But a rich pipeline of 65 potential drugs should ensure strong earnings growth in coming years. Meanwhile, says Ketterer, the company should generate a staggering $55 billion in free cash flow (cash left over after paying bills and reinvesting in the business) over the next five years, which should support the share price, recently $46. The company could use the cash to repurchase shares and to bolster its dividend. "The downside is practically nil, barring the unexpected," Ketterer says.
A somewhat riskier pick is Ericsson (ERIC), which built the infrastructure that handles 40% of the world's mobile-phone calls. The Swedish telecom-equipment giant should benefit from strong expected growth in mobile traffic over the next few years. But it operates in an inherently volatile business, and the declining value of the dollar hurts profits earned in the U.S. and in Asian countries with currencies pegged to the greenback. Still, "the stock is too undervalued to ignore," says Ketterer. The shares, at $38, could return 15% to 20% annually over the next couple of years, she says.
HSBC (HBC), the London-based banking giant, has taken its lumps from a subsidiary involved in the foundering U.S. subprime-mortgage business. But with a price-earnings ratio of 13, says Ketterer, it's "quite a bargain for a company that operates globally and with a strong Asia business that is expected to produce earnings growth of 20% to 30% a year." What's more, she adds, the bank is overcapitalized, meaning there's plenty of cash available for paying dividends and buying back stock. Even now, the shares yield a generous 4.3%.
Great companies with principles
Nicholas Kaiser has steered Amana Trust Growth fund to market-beating performance over the past ten years, even though he is, in effect, working with one hand tied behind his back. The fund invests according to Islamic principles, so it must avoid financial stocks and companies with high debt (because of a prohibition against collecting or paying interest) as well as businesses associated with liquor, gambling and pornography. As a result, about half of the U.S. stock market is off-limits. Despite these restrictions, Kaiser has delivered excellent returns: an annualized 14% over the past decade, compared with 8% for the S&P 500.
One of Kaiser's favorite picks is Apple (AAPL). He began buying the computer and iPod maker several years ago at $14 a share, and he still likes it at $109. Yes, the shares look pricey at 30 times expected 2007 earnings, but the P/E has actually been falling as Apple's bubbling product pipeline has churned out one hit after another. Apple's earnings in the first quarter of 2007 soared 85% over the same period a year earlier, well beyond analysts' expectations.
Kaiser believes the company can keep up this impressive performance. He cites the release this year of a new generation of power-hungry digital-design-and-imaging software programs from Adobe. The software, he says, will provide a major boost to sales of Apple's high-end Mac Pro workstations, which start at $2,500. "Every media desktop jockey is going to want to have one of those things," he says. This summer's release of the long-awaited iPhone and the fall debut of the Leopard operating system are further hits in the making, he says.
Kaiser holds a slew of transportation stocks in the fund, and one of his favorites is UPS (UPS). Although its U.S. package-delivery business provides nearly two-thirds of revenues, it faces fierce competition. What excites Kaiser is UPS's logistics business, which offers services ranging from consulting to running a company's entire shipping program. Although it generates just 17% of UPS's revenues, "it's the growth engine," says Kaiser. A $1.68 annual dividend provides a nice 2% yield on UPS's shares.
Clean energy is not one of Amana's mandates, but that doesn't stop Kaiser from endorsing FPL Group (FPL), a Florida utility that's one of the world's largest producers of electric power from wind. Although Kaiser views the utility's emphasis on renewable energy as a plus, he is mainly attracted by its growing customer base, which encompasses about half of Florida's population, and its unregulated wholesale business, which sells low-cost power generated from nuclear plants and other sources. FPL has a "good, steady flow of earnings, an increasing dividend, and it's something we know makes money," he says. The $1.64 dividend has grown nearly 10% annually over the past three years and provides a 3% yield.
Growing and reasonably priced
Most of the high-flying funds that returned 100% or more in 1999, the last year of the tech bubble, have long since crashed and burned. One exception is Turner Emerging Growth. The fund, which focuses on small, fast-growing firms, followed a 144% leap in 1999 with gains of at least 10% in every year except 2002, when it lost 20%. Its annualized 14% return over the past five years easily beat that of the Russell 2000 Growth index. (The fund is closed to new investors.)
Manager Frank Sustersic looks for companies with annual revenue growth of at least 10%, scrutinizing them for weaknesses in their business models. He's also sensitive to price; he dislikes P/Es that are higher than a company's growth rate. That kept the fund out of trouble when the tech bubble burst.
One of Sustersic's top picks is Parexel International (PRXL), among the world's largest providers of clinical research for pharmaceutical and biotech firms. The industry is experiencing "phenomenal growth," in part because the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is requiring more clinical tests, says Sustersic, a health-care analyst by training. Parexel, based in Waltham, Mass., operates in 36 countries and has a backlog of orders totaling more than $1 billion. Its U.S. operations have historically been unprofitable, but Sustersic says that's about to change -- one reason he likes Parexel despite its high P/E of 27 times this year's expected earnings.
Another firm benefiting from a hot market is Ladish Co. (LDSH), a maker of jet-engine parts and other aerospace products. The industry is experiencing a burst of growth, spurred in part by major new jetliners from Boeing (787 Dreamliner) and Europe's Airbus (A380). Like Sustersic's other favorites, Ladish has a healthy backlog -- more than $500 million worth of business. Its shares stumbled, though, after an earnings disappointment in the fourth quarter of 2006 that Sustersic attributes to a plant-maintenance closing that lasted longer than expected. As a result, the shares are selling for a relatively modest 18 times estimated 2007 profits.
Sustersic's third pick, Bucyrus International (BUCY), also made our list last year. The South Milwaukee, Wis., company manufactures large-scale excavation equipment for the surface mining of coal, copper, oil sands and other minerals. Weakness in coal prices has hung over the shares for the past year. But the long-term demand for coal is robust, and the firm has an order backlog of nearly $900 million, up from $659 million a year earlier. "I love firms that have good earnings visibility from a stable or growing backlog," says Sustersic. The stock trades for about 22 times this year's expected earnings, and analysts expect profits to grow by 33% this year and 28% in 2008.
Growth Franchises
Although most growth managers have been mired in a severe slump the past several years, Alex Motola, of Thornburg Core Growth, has maintained a high batting average. During the past three years, his growth fund, which invests in companies of all sizes, has returned an annualized 22%, more than twice the performance of the benchmark Russell 3000 Growth index. Motola says he searches for highly sustainable, growing franchises that are selling at reasonable prices and that are not subject to constant technological innovation or price competition.
His largest position is in Amdocs (DOX), a billing-software and customer-care provider for the telecommunications industry. Clients such as Sprint Nextel and Bell Canada hire Amdocs to install software and operate billing and customer-care applications. Between Amdocs' rising profit margins and recovering stock values in the telecom sector, Motola still sees good upside in the shares, which trade at 17 times estimated profits.
In Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Motola says he's making the rare exception of paying up for a pricey stock: The casino operator sells at 55 times estimated 2007 earnings. Motola anticipates a rising tsunami of earnings and cash flow starting in 2008. "The value is wrapped up in licenses and in Sands' ability to execute," he says.
Sands' founder and controlling shareholder, Sheldon Adelson, is successfully exporting his brand and expertise to Asia, Motola says. The septuagenarian hit the jackpot with Sands Macau. Las Vegas Sands will own or operate seven of ten new properties on the Cotai Strip, a Macau landfill project under construction. "Chinese have a high propensity to gamble," says Motola, who calculates that one billion people live within three hours' flying time of Macau.
Motola also likes the global footprint and powerful brand recognition of Western Union (WU), the venerable money-transfer outfit. A recent spinoff from First Data, Western Union has an unmatched network of 260,000 agents around the world and leadership in a highly fragmented industry. Motola says the company is a play on immigration and the increasing global migration of labor; Mexican immigrants use the network to send money back home, Filipinos working in the Persian Gulf send savings back to the Philippines, and so on. A strong cash generator, Western Union trades for 19 times this year's expected earnings.
Overseas stock shopper
If Alex Motola is one of the best young growth managers in the mutual fund business, David Winters is one of the top young value-investing practitioners. Winters learned his craft at Mutual Series, at the feet of a master, Michael Price. A couple of years back, Winters left his post as chief investment officer of Mutual Series to start his own fund, Wintergreen. Over the past year, Wintergreen returned 20%.
Winters says he's on a "global shopping expedition" and is finding the best deals overseas. One of his favorites is U.K.-based Anglo-American (AAUK), "an incredible treasure trove of assets that can't be duplicated." Winters enthuses over Anglo-American's rich diamond and platinum deposits. The metals-and-minerals giant holds a 45% stake in privately held DeBeers, which "has done a spectacular job convincing women, and the men who love them, that they need diamonds," he quips. Winters figures that hundreds of millions of aspirational Chinese women, trading up from jade jewelry, are potential diamond customers.
An adept numbers-cruncher, Winters looks for undervalued assets and an alluring discount to his assessment of a company's true value before he purchases a stock. But he also zeros in on quality of management. "People matter," he says. "In general, the best investments and worst investments are because of people." Winters looks for executives who focus on building a business's value.
Winters loves the management of Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), a petroleum company with a large stake in the oil sands of Alberta. Led by Murray Edwards, a team of managers has acquired large oil reserves cheaply. If oil prices don't budge, Winters figures Canadian Natural will still do fine. Plus, managers own $1 billion of company stock. "They're in the boat pulling the oars in the same direction as shareholders," notes Winters.
He also admires the managers of Imperial Tobacco (ITY), which has "done a spectacular job for shareholders." A spinoff in 1996 from Hanson, a British conglomerate, Imperial has made intelligent acquisitions of cigarette brands and consistently returned capital to shareholders through higher dividends and share repurchases. Winters doesn't smoke, but he seems to have an addiction to tobacco stocks, which accounted for 21% of Wintergreen's portfolio at the end of 2006.
Sector funds tend to be streaky and volatile. Mark Greenberg's AIM Leisure is an exception. Over the past decade, it returned more than 15% annualized, nearly double the market's return, with impressive consistency. Greenberg, who started following the leisure business -- what he calls "all the fun stuff in life" -- in 1983, picked an alluring sector. In the U.S., Europe and Asia, consumer spending on such non-necessities as travel, alcoholic beverages and movies routinely grows faster than the overall economy.
One of Greenberg's favorite stocks is Diageo (DEO), the largest owner of liquor brands, including Smirnoff and Tanqueray. "When you're at the bar, you say 'Captain Morgan,' not rum; 'Johnnie Walker,' not Scotch," says Greenberg, who worked as a hotel bartender while in college in Milwaukee. "When liquor is mixed, you can't even tell what you're drinking." It doesn't cost much more to distill branded liquor than generic, but Diageo can sell Johnnie Walker for several dollars more per bottle. The difference shows up in Diageo's robust cash flow and steadily rising dividends.
No matter what you think of Rupert Murdoch's politics, there's no denying that he runs a potent media shop in News Corp. (NWS) Greenberg says Murdoch has been particularly adept at seizing international opportunities and harnessing the Internet (MySpace was a clever acquisition) for cross-marketing purposes. Fox has the highest profit margins of any Hollywood studio, says Greenberg, and the Fox Network churns out popular TV hits with global appeal, such as The Simpsons and American Idol. Shares of News Corp., which has disclosed that it wants to buy Dow Jones, recently traded at 17 times Greenberg's forecast for 2008 earnings.
His final pick exemplifies the discretionary spending of a leisure society: the fast-growing pet-store chain PetSmart (PETM). "It's amazing how much people love their dogs and cats," says Greenberg. The pet industry is growing twice as fast as the economy, and Americans pamper their little friends (dog-and-cat hotels are one of PetSmart's expanding businesses). PetSmart and privately owned Petco are the category-killers in this industry, elbowing aside tiny neighborhood pet shops.
Out F @ 8.0025
In METP @ .10
FDG @122.55 up 6.05, Will split 3/1 on 9/2/05.
ELN: 8.64
NTY: 21.60
TASR: 8.66
SIRI: 6.83
ULTR update: .245, could go skiing on 1 yr chart.
Never fixed this - SIRI was sold @ 3.75, not 3.40. Should have taken my own advice on MDGN and need to have stop loss points mentally if not actually placed.
ULTR now .41 Time for another look.
Sold balance of EZTO @ .153
DAMN, XOMA AH @ 1.14 now.
XOMA on watch for 3/11, closed today 1.04, 1.06 AH @ time of post.
A -- Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibodies for Type A Botulinum Neurotoxins
Notice Date
3/8/2005
Notice Type
Award
NAICS
541710 — Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences
Contracting Office
Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health, National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Contract Management Program 6700 B Rockledge Room 3214 MSC7612, Bethesda, MD, 20892-7612
ZIP Code
20892-7612
Archive Date
3/23/2005
Small Business Set-Aside
N/A
Award Number
HHSN266200500004C
Award Date
3/8/2005
Awardee
XOMA (US) LLC, 2910 Seventh Street, Berkeley, CA 94710
Award Amount
$15,000,000.00
Sold EZTO @ .078 on 3/3/05. Took out original investment to ride free shares.
Dominion of Melchizedek
The so-called Dominion of Melchizedek (hereinafter "DoM") is a fake nation which exists only in cyberspace, or in the literature and actions of the scam artists who perpetrate this fraud. There is no real Dominion of Melchizedek, but this doesn't stop the scammers from selling utterly worthless bank licenses for tens-of-thousands of dollars.
The DoM attempts to hold itself out as some sort of quasi-religious body, even to the point of having its own version of the Bible. But for all their self-righteousness, the truth is that the DoM not only commits fraud, but also materially facilitates the fraud of others by creating phony banks, stock exchanges, arbitration forums, etc., in an attempt to give some illusory legitimacy to criminals who are directly defrauding the public by way of pyramid-scheme bank debenture scams and other criminal schemes.
http://www.quatloos.com/groups/melchiz.htm (A great read)
Official web site,government of the Dominion of Melchizedek
http://www.melchizedek.com
a man calling himself David Korem, representing the so-called Dominion of Melchizedek (DOM), visited Rotuma recently and tried to persuade the Rotuma Council to secede from Fiji and join the DOM. The comments below have been sent to the Rotuman Forum in response to that posting.
http://www2.hawaii.edu/oceanic/rotuma/os/Forum/Forum15.html
Visit the website and you can read the history or catch up with local affairs, but no matter how carefully you look on an atlas, you won't find the Dominion of Melchizedek anywhere. Supposedly based in the South Pacific, it is a virtual tax haven with little banking legislation and no taxes.
http://www.atimes.com/oceania/BB17Ah01.html
The fictitious "Dominion of Melchizedek"
Of all the scams and con jobs perpetrated over the Internet, nothing compares to what a virtual country and its creators have done to the world, writes Bertil Lintner.
http://www.asiapacificms.com/articles/cyberfraud_melchizedek/
A Tale of Two Tax Havens from the Land of Oz
It has all the makings of a modern-day fairy tale; a remote South Seas island paradise with a beautiful tropical climate and surrounded by crystal blue waters. Known as the Switzerland of the Pacific, there are no taxes, minimal banking legislation and very little government bureaucratic red tape. It also has its very own university. Described in the pages of Tax Havens of the World, a well-respected three-volume encyclopedia about offshore financial centers around the world, there are 300 banks registered there.
The island declared war on France due to that nations nuclear testing. It later claimed a victory and has since declared war against Serbia to cause it to "retreat and renounce its sinful and violent ways." The campaigns are bloodless. "War is waged to bless yet never harm its enemies." But just what sort of paradise is it?
http://www.goldhaven.com/issue4/Two.htm
TREATY OF PEACE AND FRIENDSHIP BETWEEN THE KINGDOM OF ENENKIO ATOLL AND THE DOMINION OF MELCHIZEDEK
http://www.enenkio.org/treaty_DOM.htm
[IV.] Sovereign Master Lease
On this 22nd day of January 2000, Anise Ferati, co-sovereign owner and sole representative of the other family owners of more than 50 acres of real estate on the main island of Rotuma, Juju District and Malhaha District hereafter referred to as the Leasor, hereby extends an irrevocable sovereign master lease for a period of 99 years, consisting of all of his families rights, title and interest in all of his copra lands in Rotuma to the government of the Dominion of Melchizedek, hereafter referred to as Leasee, on the following terms and conditions:
http://www2.hawaii.edu/oceanic/rotuma/os/NewsArchive/Archive%202000/archive0008.htm
The Dominion of MELCHIZEDEK is a legally recognized ecclesiastical and sovereign, Constitutional Republic inspired by the principles of the MELCHIZEDEK Bible.
Resulting from various acquisitions of Pacific Islands throughout the 1990’s and tax-free minimal banking legislation, the Republic of MELCHIZEDEK has become known as the Switzerland of the Pacific, — and its Supreme Court has legal jurisdiction worldwide.
http://www.trmi.com/beacon46.htm
CWRI Sells Mining Interests to Dominion of Melchizedek
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-16-2000/0001220446&....
FOREIGN RECRUITERS FOR IMAGINARY COUNTRY NABBED IN OLONGAPO
http://www.newsflash.org/199811/ht/ht000589.htm
Marshall Islands Notices on "EnenKio" and "Melchizedek"
http://www.angelfire.com/nv/micronations/marshallnotice.html
Melchizedek
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melchizedek
Even more SIRI @ 6.02
More SIRI @ 6.47, damn my timing blows.
Watch: ONT Day Range 1.05 - 1.28 Current 1.19
Prev Close: .78
Run on XM partnership for video
In MDGN @ .208 average for 2 buys.
.175 x .19
Edit: GTC sell set @ .29
Taken out of SIRI @ 3.40. GTC orders are bad when you don't check for news every morning. UGH
Will prolly roll those funds into MDGN, looking for below .15
Watch: MKRS .175, .16 x .18
Thank God those were only paper trades.
Closed that TFCT position @ .049. Still holding originals but made enough on this one to cover losses.
Back out SYTR @ .0035
Not feeling it, back out @ .057.
In AUTQ @ .056
Edit: Sell set @ .072
MDGN Unreal +1041.67%
Prev Close: .012
Open: .018
Day High: .139 (Ask)
Close: .137
Vol: 7,875,353
By: wicked_300
11 Aug 2004, 08:33 AM EDT
Msg. 79990 of 79990
Jump to msg. #
In battle of satellite providers, it's all about personal preference
By Matt Grisafi , ASSOCIATE EDITOR 08/11/2004
Sirius Satellite Radio, XM Radio offer slightly different content.
More and more people are discovering the wonders of satellite radio every day, but if you're not sure which provider to go with - Sirius Satellite Radio or XM Radio - you need to see if they have what you want.
Advertisement
Both providers have well over 100 channels of music, news and sports, but there are some differences.
The most glaring - and most important, in my opinion - is the extreme difference in sports programming. This may be the music page, but just because you like music doesn't mean you don't like sports. As an avid sports fan, Sirius clearly offers the better sports package. While both have ESPN Radio and ESPN News, Sirius is the exclusive satellite provider of the NFL with 24-hour coverage on NFL Radio and every single game broadcast each week. Throw in NHL and NBA game coverage, and you're in sports heaven.
If NASCAR is your thing, however, XM Radio is your choice, carrying exclusive rights to NASCAR Radio. XM just announced they'll have live coverage of college football and men's and women's college basketball's PAC-10 and ACC conferences. XM also carries Sporting News and Fox Sports Radio - but I've found neither to be worth my while when I've got ESPN.
As far as news, talk and entertainment go, again Sirius has the slight edge. Both have all the major news networks, but Sirius has NPR, four political channels (two for each wing) and three comedy channels.
That leaves us with the music.
After trying both services, I think you're choosing between quantity or quality. What I do enjoy about XM is that they'll play different album tracks, while Sirius has the tendency to play just the singles. My favorite music, for example, is indie rock. On Sirius' "Left of Center," I'll hear Wilco, but rarely anything other than their new "Theologians." On XM's "XMU," I'll hear other tracks from their new album, A Ghost Is Born, like "Hummingbird." However, XMU plays an extreme variety of new music. So while I'll hear more variety, I'll ultimately hear Wilco less. I'll also hear a whole lot of obscure bands that quite frankly aren't very good. I can listen to "Left of Center" all day and rarely want to change the station. I can't say the same for "XMU."
If you're into hip-hop, Sirius has four hip-hop exclusive stations to XM's two. But if you like punk, XM has the only station dedicated to the genre, "Fungus," while Sirius mixes their punk with hip-hop and rock on "Faction" and Little Steven Van Zandt's "Underground Garage."
Both providers offer a station for jam bands, but Sirius' "Jam On" seems to be the better of the two, leaning more towards the Grateful Dead, while XM's "Music Lab" plays more Genesis. Again, the variety here is greater with XM, but the quality of music is better with Sirius.
When it comes to technology, it's all about personal preference. XM's "Roady2" unit is much smaller and more convenient to carry around than Sirius' PNP units, but the PNP units are a little easier to use and give you a little more information at once. One big difference I did find is that if you're in a heavily-wooded area, XM struggles for reception.
If I could, I'd have both, just because I'm a music junkie. If I had to choose, however, I think the clear choice is Sirius.
n
After Sirius locked up Eminem, XM made a move of their own, hiring shock jocks Opie & Anthony. XM will charge subscribers an additional $1.99 a month to hear the duo. It will be interesting to see its response as Howard Stern's move to satellite could be on the horizon.
©News of Delaware County 2004
2.21
By: joeygrose
03 Aug 2004, 03:22 PM EDT
Msg. 79630 of 79650
Jump to msg. #
on james cramer's realmoney.com
in case you all did not see this
"People always want speculative stocks. They want some cheap stocks that could amount to something that are basically calls, long-dated calls, where the worst that could happen is that you get diluted to the point of oblivion, but the best that could happen is lightning strikes.
I think these "calls" are good to have as part of a portfolio; in fact, I would advocate that discretionary portfolios could put up to 20% into some specs, with the idea that a couple get wiped out, a couple break even and the rest pay for the whole shooting match and then some.
Two years ago, I put together a speculative basket of big-name telcos that paid off in spades. I am looking right now at a bunch of speculative names that I think could be long-term calls on some big trends. This time I am not putting my money where my mouth is, in part because of trading restrictions that keep me from taking action, and in part because I already own some of them or analogs that already are leveraged to these industries.
But I like these specs, so I am sharing them with you.
Here goes:
1. Sirius (SIRI:Nasdaq - commentary - research): NFL made ABC. NFL made Fox. NFL made DirecTV. I think it can do the same for Sirius. Everyone thinks that Sirius paid too much to get the NFL deal. Everyone thought ABC, Fox and DirecTV paid too much, too. I don't think so. Possible downside: Sirius dilutes the heck out of you if it doesn't go cash-flow positive in a couple of years.
2. Revlon (REV:NYSE - commentary - research): The same bad news just keeps getting discounted here. How about if Jack Stahl pulls it off? He fixed the balance sheet. Can the sales be that far behind? Everyone's giving up on this brand, but it is a brand, a famous one at that, and I don't mind owning a $2 call on that industry.
3. Lucent (LU:NYSE - commentary - research): How can this company be trading with Nortel (NT:NYSE - commentary - research) when it is doing better than Nortel with no accounting issues -- total transparency -- and better management? I own Nortel, just bought more, because I think it is doing better than people realize, but the price in Lucent is ridiculously compelling. Buy it, put it away, forget about it. It will come back.
4. JDS Uniphase (JDSU:Nasdaq - commentary - research): Listen to the conference call, gosh darn it. The company's got big orders, great balance sheet. It is stuck at this price because of a hefty convert that has convertible guys leaning against the common. Can't last forever.
5. Avanex (AVNX:Nasdaq - commentary - research): This company reported a terrific quarter just now with revenue projections nothing short of terrific. If they can get some gross margin improvement, you get a double.
Again, it is possible that all five of these go down. I just find that hard to believe in the cases of Lucent and JDS Uniphase, both of which have much better balance sheets than people realize. I know that the short-term numbers with Revlon are disappointing but the market cap of the equity here is $700 million. That's about one quarter of the cost to build the brand out from scratch. Too silly down here. Avanex and Sirius: I like rapid revenue stories even if they aren't making money. These two could pan out.
Speculative but exciting, cheap, but not on earnings. Classic calls. Grab 'em."
Google planned IPO:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Google Inc., the world's No. 1 Web search provider, said on Monday it hoped to raise as much as $2 billion in its highly anticipated initial public offering and could have an initial market cap as high as $36.25 billion.
About 24.6 million shares will be sold in the IPO for between $108 and $135, according to an amended prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (news - web sites).
Mountain View, California-based Google plans to sell 14.1 million shares, while another 10.5 million will be sold by stockholders. It has received approval to list its Class A common stock on the Nasdaq under the symbol "GOOG" (Nasdaq:GOOG - news).
The company plans to use the net proceeds from the sale, estimated to be $1.66 billion, for general corporate purposes. It will not receive any of the proceeds from shares sold by selling stockholders.
Additionally, Google reported second-quarter earnings of $79.1 million on revenue of $700.2 million, up from earnings of $64 million on revenue of $651.6 million in the 2004 first quarter, according to the prospectus.
Operating income for the second quarter was $171 million, up from $155.3 million in the first quarter, according to the filing.
A group of underwriters, led by Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MWD - news) and Credit Suisse First Boston, will have the option to buy another 3.7 million Class A common shares under the IPO.
Watch SMTR: .059 x .062
In right now:
SIRI: 2.70, current 2.37
TFCT: .1698, current .0865
Watch list Favs:
NEOM: .07 X .072
ULTR: 1.26 X 1.37
BLYC: .018 X .02
AGRA: 1.19
Just a place to throw my junk onto.
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