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mtc
Down -70% since May (that is 6 months) and that was when the stock was only $2.xx
You are in $14. How many more times have you doubled down? Those little up spikes don't last long (the most recent were only 100 shares or less and not authentic trades) so there is no profit on the long side.
I went short in October 2014 in real time here (bb33 was the mod back then) on this thread and look at this chart
Ugh! Down another -20% and still falling even before the recent Bakery Barn fiasco and customer revolt. Guess the initial channel stuff for Natural Line flopped as total sales are still declining.
Q1 2016 $29.7m
Q2 2016 $23.5m
Q3 2016 $18.7m
Q4 2016 $14.8m
Q1 2017 $17.6m*
Q2 2017 $14.6m
Q3 2017 $14.5m
MSLP lost $3.3m in cash in Q3 and it may have been $4.xm as there is a mysterious NEW ~$1m net line item increase for doubtful accounts on the cash flow statement in Q3. Is a big retailer going under? GNC? Vitamin Shoppe? Euro/Global retailer? It's $1m bucks in a receivable that is now doubtful enough to include in the SEC filing. Not incidental.
Ryan can't collect his cash fast enough now the ship is nearly sunk. He is cashing out. He formerly deferred most his interest in 2016 (taking only $400K in cash).
Now Ryan has taken $1.8m in cash in only the first 9 months of 2017. He is looting the checking account as he knows its overdrawn.
The only cash on hand is the new borrowings from Prestige that is up to net $5m owed on the balance sheet and at a huge loss.
Crossroads borrowings are still a mystery as the transaction was subsequent to Q3 close.
mtc
Are you comforted by the .64 cents a share price today that my excellent due diligence predicted?
Ryan came back to Bakery Barn with his tail between his legs. The lack of margins on CCB using Bakery Barn is what caused the dispute in the first place and nothing has changed about the margins going forward. On the contrary, Bakery Barn will not allow Ryan to fall in arrears again and has all the leverage.
How many former customers were lost? Countless. They aren't coming back.
Since Q4 began....
MSLP has ZERO products on the bodybuilding.com Top 50 list. ZERO!
MSLP has one product on the MuscleandStrength.com Top 50 list. CLA Core @ $8.50. Wow. MSLP best seller is a $8 fat burner fraud.
The real customer drop off came in Q4 and we won't see those numbers until 10-K in March 2018 a full 135+ days (more than 1/3 of a year) from today and likely 90 after the Q4 close. These numbers will be a disaster.
The $24m in rev reported in Q3 is very likely 4 months worth of sales as I'm confident CEO kept the Q3 open way past Sept 30 and likely deep into October.
This and other fraud is likely why the brand new VP of Finance resigned and would not sign off on this filing and now Ryan is the CFO with a political science degree. The 8-K today clearly implies the VPF (essentially CFO resigned due to disagreement/dispute)
MSLP 12 month run rate is now $96m. That is what MSLP revs were in 2013.
Q3 numbers are at a 4 year low $24m and still falling. Not bottomed out and launching like CEO Ryan said in Q2 conference call.
Domestic Sales just hit a 4 year low $14m in Q3. Still falling.
"On October 27, 2017, the parties settled their dispute and entered into a settlement agreement, pursuant to which the Company agreed to pay Bakery Barn $350,000 on October 28, 2017, and an additional $352,416 by November 26, 2017. The parties also agreed that Bakery Barn would resume producing products for the Company under substantially the same terms embodied in the oral Manufacturing Agreement, until such time that the Manufacturing Agreement can be reduced to writing."
Looks like BB will continue to make Combat Crunch Bars again.
UH OHHH!
You mean no more spam from Madcow about the 'new formula' blah blah blah.
Looks like Musclepharm's Natural series didn't do much for the top or bottom line.
They are done. No options left.
Wynnefield still riding this donkey into the ground
Added another 160,550 shares in Q3 and now has 1,636,305 or 11.3% of O/S according to today's 13-F
Wynnefield has invested over $12m for these shares including the $2m loss they incurred in the private sale to CEO Ryan that deposed former CEO Brad. Today these shares were worth 1.6m x .64 cents a share = $1.04m
Not bad heh? Obus turned $12m into $1.04m? When you are indicted for insider trading and have the feds watching your every move, Obus turned into MrHaigs type performance.
Good call! LOL
stupified777 Tuesday, 10/24/17 02:13:55 AM
Re: bugsbrunny post# 79826
Post #
79830
of 79962 Go
Please...I beg you...Short the stock!!
Vitamin Shoppe takes $106 million writedown, reports massive loss primarily from sports nutrition category.
https://www.nutraingredients-usa.com/Article/2017/11/13/Vitamin-Shoppe-takes-106-million-writedown-reports-massive-loss?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=13-Nov-2017&c=WRrJVl7LJ0nM9jgXB98mLw%3D%3D&p2=
Vitamin Shoppe blames 80% of the earnings decline to drop in sports nutrition sales. Calls sports nutrition a race to the bottom.
This is a sign of things to come in MP earnings.
***Notice this VP of Finance (essentially CFO as MSLP has no CFO position currently) resignation filing DOES NOT contain the usual boilerplate regarding "resignation was not as a result of a disagreement or dispute with the Company." that usually accompanies executive resignations.
This clearly implies Mr. Anton's resignation was the result of dispute. I'm certain he did not wish the personal liability of signing off on the MSLP financial fraud currently taking place.
Look at Mr. Doron's resignation with the usual boilerplate for example a couple months ago:
Hilarious as another senior executive level "new hire" leaves the company in the first days or weeks when they witness the internal fraud first hand. This is clear pattern as the C-suite revolving door including VP of finance, COO and CFO have all resigned within days or weeks of hiring. Of course 3 former CFOs have also been sanctioned and had their CPA credentials revoked due to misdeeds at MSLP. This must be a requirement of MSLP employment.
Joins in August and resigns in September
Earnings release deadline is tomorrow and still no company notification of scheduled release nor conference call.
Could there be an extension request filing tomorrow as the company is in chaos?
SLC,
Just to be clear and concise
Ray Charles sees your due diligence was reading a press release penny stock bot page regarding a "massive" insider transaction in MSLP of 2m shares @ $4.5m
That's all it took as you told yourself "They must know something!"
Well, they clearly don't.
If this isn't a lesson into proper due diligence for you, then you deserve to sit with Buck Wessel in the corner crying about his losses.
LOL
Presume into your investment....
Ray Charles can see into your investment in MSLP.
You clearly got suckered with insider transaction action just like the cheerleaders did when former CEO Brad bought ~50K shares @$10-$14 on the open market but was shorting them subsequently as cover to hisi 500K share grant @ $0. It was meant to attract flies to $hit and it works if the fly is stupid.
Whereas I have provided a wealth of screenshot and verifiable due diligence, cheerleaders like you et al keep splitting hairs looking for the needle in the haystack that doesn't exist.
Take your vinegar like a man.
PS Arnold's shares unlocked 3+ years ago.....but welcome to the party that ended long ago. Just because the music is still playing doesn't mean you can find anyone left to dance with and that is exactly why Arnold demanded a bulk transaction on his shares in settlement. Buck was either lied to in a secret unenforceable collusion deal with Ryan or is a complete idiot. Take your pick as it doesn't matter. The result is the same.
PSS For kicks, go look at the PPS action when Tiger Woods sold his mslp stake into the open market during his cash settlement and didn't demand a bulk transaction as part of the deal.
Arnold may be a clown, but he is no fool.
That was unwarranted.
1) Please do not presume that you have any insight into my "investment".
2) Nothing in my post was "Cheerleading" or trying to justify anything - it was merely an observation that Buck, or anyone else holding restricted shares, are stuck right now. Look at the first page of the August 10-Q.
3) Nothing in the pile of unrelated documentation you posted (yet again) provides any meaningful counterpoint to the central premise of my earlier post. The shares that Arnold received from MP (in a private party transaction) almost certainly bore a restricted legend. Their conveyance to Buck (in a private transaction) did nothing to change this fact. However, I freely acknowledge that Buck's open market acquisitions (not a private transaction) were not restricted.
No. You're misinformed.
Buck bought Arnold's (Marine LLC) 780K shares in a private transaction. Arnold in his legal settlement with MP demanded a bulk private transaction as part of the settlement when he saw the former MSLP CEO John Price resign from MSLP and take the CFO job at AllianceMMA and see his 150K MSLP share open market liquidation drive the price down 50% in 2 trading sessions.
Arnold also received a $1m immediate payment in Jan '17 with $2m payment due July which in Q2 earnings release is mentioned as paid as of June 30 but I don't see the payment on the balance sheet. I have written much about this recently.
Buck bought Arnold's 780K shares in a private transaction @ $2.15 and the remaining ~1.3m shares Amerop purchased on the open market @ $2.00 and above.
Interesting observation: Buck acquired his shares in a private transaction. Presumably, they're still restricted. Due to what I suspect is an errant checkbox in the August 10-Q stating that the company has not filed everything required under 13 & 15(d), those shares cannot have the restricted legend removed under rule 144.
Bakery Barn cut MSLP off ~June 30 so essentially at the beginning of Q3 numbers about to be reported but that BB CCB inventory was still on shelves during part of Q3 and was sold. The new manufacturer inventory arrived in Q3 and has been poorly reviewed to say the least.
Undoubtably Q3 is bad
But Q4 is a disaster as all the BB product is gone and and customer re-orders have halted and MSLP products have fallen completely off the sales lists at popular retail sites.
On bb.com, CCB was still the #1 best selling Protein bar in June, July & August even though it began to fall down the overall product top seller list as the BB product sold off and new manufacturer product began filling the channel.
Now in just about 45 days, CCB has gone from #1 down to #5 in the protein bar best seller list on bb.com and MSLP doesn't have a single product in the Top 50
MSLP has one single product in the T50 Muscleandstrength.com list and is #37, a $8 retail CLA core jug. MSLP just slashed the retail price again today down to 2 for $17 as product is rejected and just sitting on retail and warehouse shelves.
Q3 is pertinent but does not reflect the post Bakery Barn fiasco in its entirety yet. Q4 will and is a disaster as cash flow has come to a halt.
Look at 100% of the lowest possible rating for CCB on the most recent bb.com review. These aren't cherry picked negative reviews interspersed with positive reviews. Every review agrees but these are not MSLP stock cheerleaders who are trapped in a losing investment.
Partly..... he has been spouting that Drexler wanted bankruptcy.... I don't see that yet.
I understand their financial situation is dire, but his 'inevitable' bankruptcy he has been saying is atleast kicked down the road.
Ill be interested to see the CCB numbers based on the new manufacturer and orders, since it appears customer retention is very low.... I don't think its as bad as all the reviews state. I have had the new formula myself, and I don't think they taste that bad. Different from the old bars, but NOT like eating sneakers like some people say.
That whole charade went down exactly like you said it would. Great insight!
Sadly, I couldn't agree more with this statement. Getting rid of Drexler was the only shot at pulling this thing out of the dump.
I would not be surprised to see a derivative lawsuit down the road. Amerop's offer would have been dramatically more beneficial to the common holders. Business Judgement Rule applies here, and I do not see any reasonable basis for determining that the extension under those terms was in the company or shareholder's best interest.
Common shareholders get both sides of the double barrel
There is literally no case can be made for a successful long investment in MSLP.
Paying 12% on the notes
AND
Getting diluted by >100%
Cheerleaders get the honor of 12% expense before get crushed by dilution in a best case scenario.
There are ~14m shares outstanding currently and Ryan's convertible could add ~17m+ more in the longs best case of conversion.
CEO Ryan has clearly shown his intent to devalue the shares. They are worth nothing, nada, nil.
CEO Ryan has clearly shown his intent to bleed the dwindling cash flow into his personal pocket. This is always the case in a failing enterprise. You steal the cash flow before the ship sinks.
What's the timeline for expiration of products from production date?
mtc
What is the current outstanding debt to Prestige @ 20%? or Crossroads @ 18%?
MSLP is already bankrupt and using DIP financing (Debtor in Possession) from these two subprime lenders who have collateralized Accounts Receivable (Prestige) and Inventory on Hand (Crossroads).
Drexler note interest is not mandated backloaded balloon. That optional term is just additional poison pill to any activist investor. Any reasonably sophisticated investor realizes that but interest is the least of MSLP worries that only comes into play in bankruptcy court.
Not even close to covering until $0.0xxx
You do realize MSLP is down -28% this week?
Rah, Rah, Sis, Boom, Bah! Go MSLP!
18mil has been refinanced to 12% (as Madcow stated) and is due;
"Both the principal and the interest under the Refinanced Convertible Note are due on December 31, 2019, unless converted earlier"
2 years is a lot of time to accrue interest, BUT is a lot of time to get back their footing.
MadCow, you going to cover your short tomorrow now that they aren't going bankrupt from the note payments tomorrow?? What price are you looking to cover at 50cents, 30cents?
Are you getting greedy with your 900% gain on your current position (or whatever you are up)?
Whats next sensei??
New 8-K
Reader's Digest version
CEO Ryan amended the notes to $18m @ 12% interest due 12/31/2018 with convertible option price $1.11 per share.
Your move Buck?
Did your lawyers pass English 101 yet?
Look at Obus and Buck Wessell still pouring money into this trap when any fool can see customer rejection of product that is not going to come back and margins are worse now than they were under Brad. Expenses are higher today too if you look at the Revenue:Expense ratio. Rev % has collapsed greater than Ryan's expense cuts % so the cuts are counter productive to necessary cash flow. Now you see the debt explosion to cover operating losses and enterprise value goes negative.
Obus bought his first 1m shares @ $9.xx and has been buying nearly every Q all the way down to todays $.95 cents. Obus has 1.63m shares now
He is supposed to be a professional.
Buck was just trying to buy his son an executive job as his son is another loser trust fund baby still living at home and unemployed at 25 years old.
Buck is not an equity investor. He has no other equity investments that qualify for 13F. Buck just owns a Canadian Roto-tilling blade company that he inherited.
Could never figure out why the cheerleaders on here couldn't see the writing on the wall. I have pointed it out to them for years now and you certainly have.
I guess some people take it personally when they are told they are wrong. That and the fact that most investors are driven by emotion.
Let's revisit this from ~2 weeks ago:
Q3 is going to be bad and if MP doesn't default or declare bankruptcy before Q4 ends, Q4 is going to be a disaster. Revenue has just evaporated in Q4. Customer attrition has become complete customer rejection in Q4 according to every public sales metric on the major retail sites like bb.com, M&S.com, GNC.com and Amazon.com.
I have been to multiple Sprouts in multiple cities and states the past 90 days and have not seen a single MP product.
I encourage any cheerleader to just take a pic of an MP product on a shelf in Sprouts.
As I wrote after the most recent conference call announcing the Sprouts launch, MSLP couldn't sell any product in 7,000+ WalMarts, 7,000+ Kroger stores, countless Sam's Clubs, GNC and now bodybuilding.com
But there are 253 Sprouts locations in the US that will save the company.
As I have made it no secret I have a house in DC Ranch Scottsdale, AZ and have posted several photos of the Kroger Fry's Signature Nature's Market section that is the most complete grocery array of supplements I have seen and not a single MP product. Sprouts HQ are in Phoenix. I have a neighbor who is a senior executive with Sprouts HQ (office near Cactus/Tatum). I asked him about MP and he has never heard of them even I after I informed him of the launch. Slotting fees are outrageous as well so MP can't afford shelf space.
Here are my posts on Kroger's
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=117430563
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=117430635
Yeah but their natural series just came out . . .
LOL
A hush falls over the cheerleader crowd as MSLP hits .80 cents
Will Ryan resign tomorrow and declare the notes in default on Thursday?
Blew past .99. Any longs can now scrape up some change from their couch for some more shares. Go MSLP!
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