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Nope not alone.
You are not alone , I assure you .
Enjoy the weekend >> M
Great performer! I regret that I sold most of my position at 4.45.
November 8, 2019 9:04 EST Montage Resources Capitol One Financial raised from Equal-Weight to Over-Weight
Well, of course they did, never had a doubt.
Montage Resources Corporation Announces Third Quarter 2019 Outperformance, Lowers Cash Production Costs Guidance and Increases Midpoint of Production Guidance for the Full Year 2019
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20191107006021/en/Montage-Resources-Corporation-Announces-Quarter-2019-Outperformance
I would not think so, MR is half what it should be and CHK has a long storied history of being a not so above board company.
MR on the other hand, constantly beats revs/earnings estimates Q after Q year after year, we shall see.
Peace out.
Will be interesting to see if the Chesapeake debacle will spillover to MR's share price...
Montage Resources Corporation MR is scheduled to release third-quarter 2019 results on Nov 7, after the closing bell.
NG breaking 2.80 in EU/Asia can we finally break $3 and get this party started, the bullish whip cracking on NG co's should begin in earnest soon after.
Not that MR needs it with is 9th consecutive beat coming forthwith.
Peace out.
MR on the move with new update ...
https://ir.montageresources.com/press-releases/news-details/2019/Montage-Resources-Corporation-Announces-Initial-2019-Financial-and-Operating-Guidance-Schedules-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2018-Earnings-Release-and-Conference-Call-Date-and-Provides-Information-on-2019-Analyst-Day/default.aspx
I never have put much stock in Zacks, JPM et al except for the lady at Stiefel have it far north of here. The company will literally have more in earnings going forward this year that the SP is currently at. Book value $27 in change assets up the wazoo, 8 straight estimate beats they do one thing extremely well beat the numbers time and time again.
One of the problems with the company it is hard to find any relevant info on it, on fintel for example, it's not even there has some Mindray company on MR ticker, heck wasn't til a couple months ago that it wasn't the same on Ihub.
JPM did recent report on NG companies and these were their views on MR
North America Equity Research
03 October 2019
We expect NGL prices to dial-in at 27% of WTI at the low-end of the company’s guidance range of 27% to 33% of WTI in 3Q19 due to weak NGL prices in the quarter.
Expect 3Q19 production at the high end of guidance: We are modeling 3Q19 production of 614.7 MMcfe/d, 0.8% above the Street estimate of 609.6 MMcfe/d and at the high-end of the 600 to 615 MMcfe/d guidance range driven by reductions in cycle times and improved well performance.
Operations update: MR is currently running 1 rig and 1 completion crew. In 3Q19, we model 16 gross and 13.8 net TILs with 2/3rds of completion activity in the liquids rich Marcellus and Utica areas and 1/3rd of its activity concentrated in the dry gas region. We are modeling 3Q19 capex of $80 MM, 8.3% below consensus at $92 MM.
2020 production and capex expectations: We are modeling 2020 production at 600.4 MMcf/d, 0.3% below the Street production estimate of 602.4 MMcf/d. This would equate to 9.8% growth vs. 2019 production of 546.8 MMcf/d. We assume 1.5 average drilling rigs in 2020, 28 TILs, and $275 MM of capex, which is 13.3% above the Street. We expected the 2020 program to be more focused on liquids rich drilling opportunities (~65% of activity concentrated in Marcellus and Utica condensate area and 35% of activity in dry gas areas).
Long-term modeling assumptions: We are assuming flat activity, with ~1.6 average drilling rigs and 30 TILs at average capex of $288 MM per annum. This supports low-single digit production growth from 2021 through 2025. In 2021, we model 615.3 MMcf/d of production, which grows to 686.5 MMcf/d of production in 2025.
Borrowing base update: On September 23, MR announced a 25% increase in its borrowing base to $500 MM from a previous base of $400 MM and an expansion of its lending group from 13 to 15 members. As a result, MR’s pro-forma liquidity increased by $100 MM to $353 MM at the end of 2Q19.
MR is trading at a discount to our PDP Valuation: At current strip prices, we value MR’s PDP PV-10 at $959 MM, which after deducting net debt as of June
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of MXXXXXX CXXXXl at RXXXXXXE CAPITAL, L.P..
Axxx Jxxxxx
(1-212) 622-xxxx axxxxxxx@jpmchase.com
North America Equity Research
03 October 2019
2019, results in a valuation of $341 MM or $9.53 per share, which is significantly above the current trading levels. We estimate YE18 PDP reserves of 1.07 Tcfe, including 8.3 MMBo of oil, 30.7 MMBo of NGLs and 835.8 Bcfe of gas reserves.
Estimate revision: We are updating our MR model to incorporate updated company guidance, long-term modeling through 2025 and 3Q19 commodity prices. Our 2019/2020 EPS estimates move to $2.26/$1.93 from $1.76/$1.06. Our 2019/2020 CFPS estimates move to $7.07/$7.48 from $7.12/$7.55. Our model is based on 2019/2020 oil and gas prices of $57.37/$54.52 per bbl and $2.72/$2.54 per Mcf vs. our prior commodity price assumption of $56.82/$54.80 per bbl and $2.60/$2.48 per Mcf.
MR operations are focused in the Utica and Marcellus, with core acreage in the dry gas and liquids rich windows. MR shares have significant leverage to an improvement in commodity prices (i.e., natural gas), but we expect the stock to be range-bound given weak natural gas prices that will limit the potential of MR to drive significant value creation through the drillbit. As compared to its Appalachian peers, MR screens at the middle of the pack on production costs, cash margins, leverage ratios and gas break-even prices. Hence, we believe a Neutral rating is justified.
Valuation
Natural gas stocks have been one of the weakest segments of the broader market over the past five-years as runaway supply growth from shale productivity gains and associated gas growth has overwhelmed demand, resulting in severe margin compression. Equity values have also been negatively impacted by the shift from asset based measures such as NAV toward cash flow and FCF based metrics. We expect supply headwinds to persist through 2020 for gas and liquids, although we do anticipate balances to improve in 2H20 as producers as a whole begin to moderate activity levels
Using our NAV methodology, we calculate a net asset value of around $15 per share for MR. At current levels, the shares are trading at a substantial discount to NAV, but NAV based valuation metrics appear no longer appear to be the appropriate approach given the structural oversupply in the gas market. We do not have a Dec-20 price target on MR stock.
Risks to Rating
All E&P companies face the same general risks, including commodity price volatility, infrastructure constraints, oilfield service cost inflation upon accelerating activity, and unexpected geologic irregularities. Furthermore, type curves and proved reserve/resource potential remain underpinned by numerous assumptions subject to uncertainty that can materially change.
An unexpected rise in natural gas price could drive the stock above our price target given the company’s leverage to higher natural gas prices.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of MXXXXXX CXXXXl at RXXXXXXE CAPITAL, L.P..
Axxx Jxxxxx
(1-212) 622-xxxx axxxxxxx@jpmchase.com
North America Equity Research
03 October 2019
Wider-than-expected basis differentials for MR.
If the company does not achieve the growth rates and costs that investors expect
and to which the company has guided, the stock could underperform.
Upside could come in the form of an improved commodity price outlook that drives acceleration in activity and increases NAV.
MR’s production and activity are concentrated in the Utica and Marcellus Shales in eastern Ohio, West Virginia, and NEPA. Winter weather, flooding, or issues with infrastructure could negatively impact the company’s operations and cause the stock to underperform.
These insider buys today don't hurt a bit.
$MR filed SEC form 4: Director ZORICH ROBERT L:
Bought 5311 of Common Stock at price 3.53 on 2019-10-08. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data...
fla
Oct 10th, 5:06 pm
$MR filed SEC form 4: Director Burroughs Mark E JR:
Bought 6728 of Common Stock at price 3.53 on 2019-10-08. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data...
fla
Oct 10th, 5:06 pm
$MR filed SEC form 4: Director PHILLIPS D MARTIN:
Bought 5311 of Common Stock at price 3.53 on 2019-10-08. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data...
fla
Oct 10th, 5:05 pm
$MR filed SEC form 4: Director Swanson Douglas E Jr:
Bought 5311 of Common Stock at price 3.53 on 2019-10-08. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data...
Peace out.
Zacks downgrades to hold 2 weeks after strong buy rating...what a joke!
I’m with you...buy of a lifetime
We should put together an investment fund and buy the company for 110 million.
EBITDA is over 300 million!
Difficult to watch the market manipulate a profitable company down like this.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/09/26/jp-morgan-on-energy-universally-hated-and-cheap-sector-to-rebound.html
But J.P. Morgan foresees a turnaround in a sector it says is trading at a "multi-decade low" in price-to-book valuation.
The analysts think hedge funds and portfolio managers have turned too bearish on the group even as insider purchasing has surged and dividends and share buybacks increase. Energy's 3.7% dividend yield is easily the highest on the S&P 500.
"The sector should be a key beneficiary of stabilization/reacceleration in the business cycle, which we expect to start playing out by early 2020," Lakos-Bujas said.
https://marcelluscoalition.org/2019/03/pa-leads-nation-in-clean-affordable-natural-gas-power-generation-growth/
Specifically, facilities like Tenaska’s Westmoreland Generating Station or Invenergy’s Lackawanna Energy Center have come online recently, with both plants using locally sourced natural gas to generate reliable, around-the-clock affordable energy for more than 2 million homes. In Pennsylvania, there are 19 natural gas power generation projects in development, under construction or recently brought online totaling over 16,700 MW of generating capacity and $12.6 billion of private capital investment into the state
Looks like low 40 degree evenings for the next week here in Southwest Pennsylvania.
Thought I was buying at crazy cheap prices a couple of weeks ago.
Then it rose to nearly $5. Hard to watch it drop back to these levels. Wish the market would stop being so stupid.
Interesting.
https://naturalgasnow.org/20-gigawatts-new-natural-gas-generated-electricity-coming-2018/
Power plant operators are scheduled to bring 20 gigawatts (GW) of new natural-gas fired generating capacity online in 2018, which, if realized, would be the largest increase in natural gas capacity since 2004. Almost 6 GW of the capacity additions are being built in Pennsylvania, and more than 2 GW are being built in Texas. In contrast, about 13 GW of coal-fired capacity are scheduled to be retired in 2018. These changes in the generating capacity mix contribute to the continuing switch from coal to natural gas, especially in southern and midwestern states.
The fact nearly one-third of this new natural gas generated electricity is being built in Pennsylvania is, of course, a direct result of the shale revolution, which brought Marcellus Shale gas to market, disrupting everything in the best possible way. It allowed old coal-fired plants to be closed or converted, while adding tremendous capacity to produce much cleaner natural gas generated electricity.
And, the numbers are staggering. Twenty gigawatts of natural gas generated electricity capacity, assuming a capacity factor of 65% can be expected to yield 13 gigawatts of actual electricity, enough, under the most conservative assumptions, to serve roughly four million homes and perhaps twice that. Looked at another way, 13 gigawatts is 26,000 times as much a 10 acre solar farm yielding a net of one-half megawatt of electricity (often when not needed and at significantly higher costs to ratepayers and taxpayers). It would, therefore, require a minimum of 260,000 acres of land to produce the same electricity with solar, plus the natural gas generated electricity would still be needed as backup for when the sun doesn’t shine.
This is why natural gas generated electricity is growing so fast. Here’s more from Today In Energy:
Lots of natural gas consumption projects coming on line in the Pittsburgh region, which is right in the middle of the Marcellus Shale regions.
Smithton, PA near my home Tenaska corporation just completed a natural gas power plant that can add 940 MW to the grid.
https://www.tenaska.com/tenaska-power-plant-in-pennsylvania-begins-commercial-operation/
Also Royal Dutch Shell has one of the current largest construction projects in the country in Monaca, PA. A natural gas cracker plant that will make millions of tons of plastic.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_Pennsylvania_Petrochemicals_Complex
It is more the NG price that has been mucked with than oil, but agree its WTI too, shorts just go sector wide and Montage is such an easy target. Being that it was ECR not as large a company and had several hurdles to pass to get to this point it is no wonder.
Slowly I believe we are getting more solid interest, many players in the game would never have even messed with ECR and it took a while for MR to get on many radar screens.
One thing it has not failed to do is increase revenues, and beat consensus estimate again and again and again over a 2 year period.
Now cash flow positive and with such a high book value and the ability to now start to meaningfully take out debt things should change.
I think I mentioned before having 9 analysts I believe now covering the stock and will actively participate in the CC's from here out will be a plus.
On fintel MR is still listed as Mindray Medical and cannot find any tute ownership etc, on Nasdaq site there is very limited, no short interest etc. This just adds to the hiccups of getting people to join the party, but little by little they are and the analysts and some nice write ups should change that.
There is this one gal though that keeps the PT at $5 haven't a clue why, maybe she has difficulty with arithmetic so many do. I am not a fan of the firm she is with as I have ever found them to be straight shooters, but, that's just my personal feelings rightly or wrongly.
Two top execs added in 10 range for 260K shares, so I feel all mine at the knuckle dragging short pushed bottom are gifts that I will be opening at Xmas time with so many others.
Lets just see as the next ER is released, til then even though I am deep already I will always be a bid sitting fool at the lows.
May EPS March 1.16 May .70 Aug .41 and still even making good money with low commodity prices its trading here? When it was darn near 3 I was like are they going to try and push it under what they will make in the year? Lower capex and increased production should have numbers back up to .60-.70 EPS even with commodity prices being manipulated by large players with agenda's (Soros and large $$ Green energy pumpers/hypers IMHO) we shall see.
Peace out.
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran may boost the price of oil.
I sometimes wonder if countries like this do create tension just to make more money from their oil production. Saudi’s and Iran would both benefit from higher prices.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-iran/saudi-arabia-has-sent-messages-to-irans-president-iran-government-spokesman-idUSKBN1WF10D
Difficult to move up with WTI getting hammered like it is ...
Hopefully the tide will change soon ...
Should have posted this....
I know it’s like a flip of the coin, but we’ll see if the almanac is accurate or not.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/08/27/weather/farmers-almanac-weather-forecast-2020-wxc-trnd/index.html
Hmmm.... the farmers almanac predicts a colder than normal winter this 2019-2020 season.
Exactly. It won't once its cold, and it won't once truth leaks out about reality at KSA facility but till then, the games are afoot.
Geopolitics seem to play more of a role than weather regarding oil / NG pricing .
This morning it is currently a brisk 47 degrees here just south of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Heating season is almost upon us. May have even started for some, who don’t like their homes quite so chilly in the mornings.
I walked outside this morning to take my oldest daughter to school, and even saw my breath. Makes me think of better days ahead for production and prices in the coming months for many of our favorite gas companies.
Never liked paying higher prices, till I started investing in oil and NG stocks. LOL
Good news > better buying opportunity ... Bad news > better buying opportunity .
Just have to wait until "energy" turns positive for more than a few hours .
Was excellent read thank RYGuy
TY for the DD guys....gradually accumulating MR in the coming days and weeks.....
Short and sweet, but nice to see JP Morgan saying energy stocks about to turn around
Reading Yahoo a user named ktbricks posted this article regarding JP Morgan thoughts on energy sector. Particularly Production and Exploration.
Nice read...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/26/jp-morgan-on-energy-universally-hated-and-cheap-sector-to-rebound.html
Impreial Capital is at $13 there are a couple more I will have to find their last $'s one was $20.50
We didn't have any really when it was Eclipse Resources as it was 1-1.50 stock then the acquisition of Blue Ridge Mountain Resources and the RS which took SP to 20 we started getting looked at, now this is supposed to be the first one with all the bells and whistles we shall see.
So 15-1 RS increases/beats everything will make more than the share price is today and is trading at .25 pre RS price when it banged at 1-1.40 now making more having more assets etc etc. Crazy, I know the RS helped the bears get a hold of it, but seriously. I am looking for a couple of strong buys this coming ER as capex will be down again revenues will be up again and profits will be up again, the higher oil will offset the lower gas price and the gas production increased this Q I believe.
I mean book value its like %35-40 or something, assets off the chain. I wish I had that kind of $$ I would buy it all and say okay we are going private %^&*( all of ya. LOL.
When it was Eclipse Resources last year it always beat as it does now and has for 2 years and would pop 40-50% strong. Since the RS its continues to increase revs, get cash flow positive, beats every consensus in every category I mean they will earn well over what they are selling for right now in the next 12 months, its crazy.
But bears have it in their grip, hopefully after this next ER will get a few strong buy PTs as will really be rocking then can get rid of the mf'ers.
In May 3 insiders purchased roughly 258,500 shares @10 avg pps
been no sales except sales back to the company to cover taxes for shares acquired during acquisition. So insiders have stepped up @10 for $2.5 mil we just have to bide our time a bit, as everything is positive, everything is going well etc, just not getting any respect at the moment.
Sorry if this is a little jumbled i am half tired long day another tomorrow. Wanted to post this and do other DD tomorrow.
There will be a Q&A at next CC
https://ir.montageresources.com/stock-information/analyst-coverage/default.aspx
Barclays Paul Chambers 212-412-7608 paul.d.chambers@barclays.com
BMO Capital Markets Phillip Jungwirth 303-436-1127 phillip.jungwirth@bmo.com
Capital One Brian Velie 504-593-6141 brian.velie@capitalone.com
Guggenheim Securities Subash Chandra 212-918-8771 subash.chandra@guggenheimpartners.com
Heikkinen Energy Advisors Kevin MacCurdy 713-955-5341 kmaccurdy@heikenergy.com
Howard Weil Holly Stewart 713-393-4512 hollys@howardweil.com
Imperial Capital Irene Haas 713-892-5606 ihaas@imperialcapital.com
Johnson Rice & Company Ronald Mills 504-584-1217 rmills@jrco.com
JP Morgan Arun Jayaram 212-622-8541 arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com
RBC Capital Brad Heffern 512-708-6311 brad.heffern@rbccm.com
R.W. Pressprich Andrew Ginsburg 212-832-5058 aginsburg@pressprich.com
Stifel Jane Trotsenko 713-237-4528 trotsenkoj@stifel.com
Tuohy Brothers Jeffrey Campbell 212-605-0451 jcampbell@tuohybrothers.com
We do have analysts and price targets from 15-20's I believe will get them in the AM.
Agreed, but the fluctuations of NGV19 from $2.6 - $2.5 shouldn’t have dropped MR a dollar from its highs last week.
I think some more analyst coverage than just Zacks and CFRA would do a world of good for MR.
MR is still being manipulated by the bear algo’s I guess.
Exactly, its not MR as much as it is entire sector just getting bear rushed.
But, this too is the most undervalued compared to its peers by a country mile IMO.
Peace out, until tomorrow guys/ladies.
Just need "oil & gas" to rebound ...
Maybe we went back and filled a gap or something.
A brisk 55 degrees here south of Pittsburgh as I took my daughter to school this morning.
Cooler weather is starting to settle in for the fall season in the northern regions. Which means furnaces we will be turned on to heat homes.
The price of NG every year typically rises throughout October - January. Which should bode well for MR.
I purchased an aweful lot under $4 a week or two ago. I didn’t anticipate it dropping back to these levels, so quickly when we hit $4.70 last week.
Hoping the bear attack will be short lived, and we can continue on a northerly trajectory in the stock price.
Not the market activity I wanted to see here.
MR is so completely undervalued it is almost criminal.
It would be nice to see some of the insiders making some open market purchases, especially at these price points.
Added lil more $3.78 and just now $3.75....will keep on adding 500 share lots as low as she wants to go, ideally each 7 or 8 cents lower, lol, just wanted to make sure I was taking advantage of this dip today....4K shares total at this point $3.90 avg so far.....
NP swampdue, I learned from a lot of astute guys back in the day on Raging Bull when it was the "in" place for real stocks, I thank them every day god rest their souls they are all gone now they were retired W.Street guys then, Silicon Investor was the place for the DotCom/Green Energy sucker fomo plays.
Just passing it on, paying it forward.
Thank you sir for all your knowledge and DD. I can't wait until I can see the market as well as you see it. You are appreciated tdeck.
SD
Added at $3.82....will avg down OR avg up gradually, until I have a full position....
Agreed, RyGuy knows me, and when I really am in a love fest and I go LONG with a stock, I rarely if ever am not on target.
Algo's today are a trip, no fundamentals just some computer program that should be illegal in banking.money.investment you know.
That's why I tell people ones your sure 100% about use no stop loss and put sales GTC high, may stop some shorting but definitely keeps them from getting snatched on an algo/MM fishing dip.
Peace out
Shorts and algorithms still have a heavy hand in price direction .
Until they let go , we "suffer" . Better times ahead for the patient .
GLTus >> M
An immense amount of people in the market nowadays handling their own investments who shouldn't and an inordinate amount of short sellers.
One only need read the last 10Q and they would clearly see this is insanely positive turn of events, but it is what it is.
I am long term so the day to machinations are meaningless to me.
A little tidbit in that PR that most probably take advantage of or can understand the impact and what the credit revolve increase means when coupled together with this statement.
" In addition, the Company has been able to take advantage of recent market conditions and incrementally add to its hedge portfolio"
Peace out.
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