Mogul Energy (MGUY)

[mick]

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/MGUY

[splintered sunlight]

Good analysis,

Good questions.

[chemist72]

The "reality" of MGUY.

Initially we were told this:

MGUY has a revenue target of $185 million by 2025

The reality is that in 2023 (so far), MGUY has realized revenues of about $13.5M per quarter, which would be ~$54M annually.

But is MGUY profitable? Not yet. In the first two quarters of 2023, MGUY has lost about $880K. That would be about $1.75M annually.

The upside is they do have a revenue generating business. Questions are will they be able to operate profitably in the future and will they be able to grow their revenues in order to become profitable?

I don't know, and neither does the market (at least that seems to be the case when examining MGUY's share price).

[mick]

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/MGUY

[mick]

MGUY
Mogul Energy International Inc (PK)
0.0227
-0.0053 (-18.93%)
Volume: 1,151,966
Day Range: 0.018 - 0.0294
Last Trade Time: 3:55:20 PM EDT

[mick]

MGUY
Mogul Energy International Inc (PK)
0.0325
0.0025 (8.33%)
Volume: 113,016
Day Range: 0.0325 - 0.0395
Last Trade Time: 3:00:01 PM EDT

[splintered sunlight]

Thank you - it looks like a 5 year low if not longer.

Never realized that it was doing so poorly.

Appreciate the heads up.

[chemist72]

It's like the Dow Jones or S&P 500 indexes.

In this case it's an index of OTCQB rated stocks that are traded on the OTC market.

You can find it at the link below:

https://www.otcmarkets.com/index/.OTCQB

[splintered sunlight]

Can you please inform us that don't know what the OTCQB index is, what it is?

Thanks.

[chemist72]

"Yikes" indeed. Many concentrate on their own OTC tickers so much, that they don't even realize the bigger picture disaster.

Unless you hit the few runners here and there, OTC has been a real ball buster the past couple of years.

[i_like_bb_stock]

Yikes

[chemist72]

OTCQB index down to new 2-year low today.

OTCQB has been a total disaster since April 2022 according to the OTCQB index (down more than 50%).

[i_like_bb_stock]

so ready here down from 40s selling has stopped 70m annual revs crazy down here

[chemist72]

In general you're correct. I was predicting a 52-week low of $.0155 when I called the day that happened a bottom.

Charting can easily lead to false conclusions. That is why it is a lagging indicator and "early" calls are generally only "proven" in hindsight. jmo

[Golden Cross]

Take several candles to form one imo... GLTA

[splintered sunlight]

Thanks

[chemist72]

On the other hand, if the 4M shares issued on 3/24/22 (as described below) are ALL being sold, it could take a while for a "true" bottom to be in place.

Date of Transaction
3/24/22
Number of Shares Issued
4,000,000
Individual Shares were issued to
Angelo Duca & Brian Fabian JT
Reason for share issuance
Debt Conversion
Restricted or Unrestricted
Unrestricted

All info above can be found in the quarterly report linked below:
https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/373827/content

[chemist72]

Imo, the bottom was last Thursday (6/8/23).

 
 Date	Close	Change	Change (%)	Open    High     Low	  Volume 
 Jun 08	0.0299	-0.0051	-14.57%	      0.0379    0.0379   0.0155  1,469,458

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/USOTC/mogul-energy-pk-MGUY/historical

[Golden Cross]

Looking for the bottom here

[i_like_bb_stock]

$MGUY super undervalued down here finding a bottom down from .40 once its found it should go up with ease pic.twitter.com/Q6Q9qIu6W1

— i_like_bb_stock (@thommic) June 12, 2023

[splintered sunlight]

That's a lot of shares for the "gentleman".

[chemist72]

Origin of convertible debt not completely clear.

However, I did find this section of their last submitted SEC 10-Q in 2012 interesting.

Mr. Naeem Tyab is the Company’s Chairman of the Board and the sole shareholder of Aura . In addition, Mr. Tyab has incurred $35,008 of out of pocket travel expenses on behalf of the Company, which has been converted to a non-interest bearing promissory note payable on demand or convertible into common shares of the Company. Mr. Tyab also has accrued payroll of $181,849. The principal amount of these notes are convertible into a number of shares based on the average price of the Company’s shares, calculated over the 30 day period prior to conversion. At June 30, 2012, the number of shares that could be converted under the terms of the notes was 175,600,400.

Turns out that the $35,008 debt could be equivalent to ~30M common shares based on the ratio shown at the end of the statement above.

Just some speculation on my part.

[chemist72]

MGUY oversold! Definitely will move higher.

Open today proves that. Buy my sense is that it will be a long, slow climb back up. Mainly because I don't expect any news until August when Q2 fins are due.

imo

[i_like_bb_stock]

agreed

[splintered sunlight]

It's been way too long.

[i_like_bb_stock]

Yea think it’s gonna bounce nicely finally

[splintered sunlight]

I grabbed some as well and threw it on the pile.

[chemist72]

Selling seems OVER. Get your cheapies while you can.

[chemist72]

Agree. Selling could stop as suddenly as it started.

All depends on whether the need for quick cash has been satisfied or not.

Would be nice if the CEO could chime in regarding this sudden price crash. But perhaps he is just as stunned as we are?

[i_like_bb_stock]

very possible grabbed some around 02 should rebound nicely once done

[chemist72]

Interesting that the 30M trust holding was issued on 1/25/2022. Exactly 1-year in the time period which shows a 30M increase in the OS. Coincidence?

May or maybe not. Personal financial circumstances can change suddenly for many reasons. So possibly there is a connection to the recent price crash, especially over the past 2 days.

Just look at the huge volume. Almost 2M shares traded the past 2 days. Even at an average price sold of only $.025, that is still around $50K in proceeds. Not exactly chicken feed. Besides they would still hold about 28M commons.

[i_like_bb_stock]

last time some became unrestricted was January 6 months ago hard to believe thats still an issue but its possible

?? $MGUY

??0.3018
(https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/MGUY/?offer_id=10&aff_id=29379)Pink Current, AS: 750M, OS: 428M, US: 50M

Outstanding Shares Updated:
?? 398,547,203 (2023-01-12)
?? 428,547,203 (2023-01-25)
Difference: +7.5% (+30M)

Unrestricted Shares Updated:
?? 20,034,090 (2023-01-12)
?? 50,034,090 (2023-01-25)
Difference: +149.7% (+30M)

Chart (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/MGUY/?offer_id=10&aff_id=29379), OTC Profile (https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/MGUY/security), Twitter (https://twitter.com/search?q=$MGUY&src=typed_query), @otcupdates

Update: 2023-01-26 01:45:06 (UTC)

[chemist72]

Maybe the restricted period recently expired??

Just a guess.

[i_like_bb_stock]

if its restricted cant sell though

[chemist72]

Only thing I can figure is some large holder decided to sell part of their shares.

For example there is one holder listed in the last Q that had 30M shares:

1/25/22 New 30,000,000 Common $0.00005 
 Yes Angelo Duca & Brian Fabian JT 
 Conversion of Convertible Note 
 Restricted

[i_like_bb_stock]

What in the world is wrong here .40 to .015 no bounce just non stop selling

[chemist72]

Likely audits being done to uplist to OTCQB.

imo

[chemist72]

Minimum fair value MGUY ~$.13/share.

I base this number on a 1:1 ratio of revenues to market capitalization. Revenue for Q1 2023 was reported as ~$14M (see link below).

https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/373827/content

So, divide $14M times 4 (to get estimated annual revenue of ~$56M) by the number of outstanding shares (~428.5M) and you get a value of ~$.13 in revenue per share.

I leave it to others to suggest other values depending on their valuation methods. For example some might include a multiplier greater than 1 for MC/revenues. Also one might consider the Q1 revenue as not representative of the remaining 3 quarters in 2023.

Koubi himself suggested accelerating revenue growth as described in a quote from a recent PR.

MGUY has a revenue target of $185 million by 2025; bringing significant value to its shareholders while maintaining a proportionate EBITDA growth.

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/MGUY/news/Mogul-Energy-International-Provides-Update-on-Flora-Acquisition-and-2023-Guidance?id=391506

[mick]

MGUY
Mogul Energy International Inc (PK)
0.0457
-0.0073 (-13.77%)
Volume: 23,324
Day Range: 0.0457 - 0.051
Last Trade Time: 1:28:04 PM EDT

[chemist72]

No news until August??

Q2 fins due on 8/14/2023.

[puffadder]

Crazy drop from the high in the 40’s

[chemist72]

MGUY, Q1 revenue = $13.9M. MC = $18.2M

Conclusion - greatly undervalued!

https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/369847/content

[chemist72]

Since this post MGUY went from $.07's to $.04's

Wow. Another ~40% drop!

Current bid of $.0402 is down more than 90% from the high made on Jan. 27, 2023 ($.4201).

It's the OTC folks, and anything can happen!

[chemist72]

Finally some buying today.

Buy volume (so far) - ~31K
Sell volume (so far) - ~2K

Data from iHub:
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/USOTC/mogul-energy-pk-MGUY/trades

[mick]

MGUY
Mogul Energy International Inc (PK)
0.08625
-0.00375 (-4.17%)
Volume: 8,625
Day Range: 0.08625 - 0.09
Last Trade Time: 2:56:48 PM EDT

[i_like_bb_stock]

Hard to believe this is still down here, gotta believe audited financials soon

[mick]

MGUY
Mogul Energy International Inc (PK)
0.1038
-0.0052 (-4.77%)
Volume: 19,160
Day Range: 0.1019 - 0.1038
Last Trade Time: 2:26:34 PM EDT

[mick]

MGUY
Mogul Energy International Inc (PK)
0.1038
-0.0052 (-4.77%)
Volume: 19,160
Day Range: 0.1019 - 0.1038
Last Trade Time: 2:26:34 PM EDT

[lighter than AIR]

Not blaming you at all…just kind of a head scratcher considering the revenue they’ve shown.

[chemist72]

Don't blame me for MGUY sellers.

I have no control over daily trading of MGUY.

If I didn't believe MGUY was undervalued, I wouldn't have posted it publicly.

My justification for having that opinion is given in the post.

Full year revenues of ~$.14/share and a modest multiplier of 3x revenues gives a target share price of about $.40 per share. So calling MGUY undervalued would be accurate according to most people's evaluation methods.