Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I have been reporting the heck out of posts on the TKO board as violating IHUB posting rules and it is nice that Shelly et al respond appropriately. Despite my ban, I have a newfound respect for IHUB.
Those who thought LA, Sirius and Ouch controlled things over there were sadly mistaken...it looks like MLK has a say too.
I'll be back there Sunday so I can continue to hold management's feet to the fire and we will hopefully get this thing turned around. Until then, adios, as I have family commitments the rest of the week.
I agree with some of your points and that MSHI is now only an asset. But, if it is an asset then spinning it off into another company should have a similarly negative impact on TKOs pps.
Day 1--MSHI and TKO are one company
Day 2--MSHI and TKO are two companies with no different prospects than they had on day 1.
So, if MSHI is really valued at $1.70 per share, to me that means TKO should be valued a little less than where it was before MSHI was spun out. Presumably, MSHI's value of $1.70 per share was already part of TKO's pps on day one. So, the fact that the MSHI value is no longer part of TKO on day two should have reduced its price.
In effect, the market is counting the value of MSHI twice. Once in the pps found for MSHI. And, once again for TKO as its pps has failed to go down. The way I see it, TKO should be trading down 40% of whatever the MSHI market cap calculates to, since TKO only has a 60% ownership stake.
Of course, that could all change with one pr from TKO saying they are set to make X amount of dollars instead of these pr that come with zero revenue
Ill just respond to some of your points, I am not using the same assumptions as you.
- It has been widely circulated that TKO will have $25 million in revenue this year. You are assuming $10 million, I think that is avery lowball number. My projections will show 25.
- The burn rate and costs are not factored into my valuation. I am not interested in how profitable they are right now. I am interested in growth.
- The fact that they spun off MSHI is almost irrelevent to me. Yes it is great that they basically sold off half of the current cash burn. And as far as I know MSHI added little revenue. All they are right now is an asset on the balance sheet.
So using a price/sales very simple valuation, comes out like this...70 mill float 25 million in revenue equates to .35 cents per share in sales. Using a conservative multiple of 5 yields 1.75 PPS. So that is the baseline I am looking at. Now you want to factor other misc things into the mix such as next years price/sales, current and future cash flow, debt, management effectiveness, pipeline opportunities, etc. I can see paying paying a 25% premium on this easily. That puts MY market value at about 2.25, thats what I would pay up to right now (assuming they do $25 million this year and at least that next year) Some would pay more, some think that this story is worth nothing (ThinkEquity).
Again, that is very simple way of valuing this stock. If you want to dig deeper and come up with a better valuation model, I think that is great. I personally think this stock is trading at a discount right now. If they really do 25 million this year, I can see a double at least from here. That number is only what I see being posted around these boards, I have no idea if they will get there. It would seem to me that with the current contracts and pipeline they have, insolvency would be very unlikely. Goverment agencies and Mega-cap companies dont typically get involved with companies who are not going to be around. All imo.
I totally understand what you are saying, but it will only prove my point, so let's go for it.
You say to come up with a value for TKO's share price, you should "take their sales, divide by the float, multiply by a factor that you are comfortable with."
Okay, let's do it using the numbers we have already been discussing.
Before the MSHI spinoff, TKO had 70M shares and I'll project 10M in sales. That equals a .14 per share in sales price. We'll use a VERY generous mulitple of 20 and that gives me a share price of $2.80. Correct?
Okay, now comes the MSHI spinoff, so we need to perform the calculation twice. Only this time, we need to reduce the TKO sales by whatever MSHI was set to produce. So, of that 10M, I'll use 2M of it.
So, now the TKO share price using those same numbers with only 8M in sales should be $2.28. And, MSHI should be worth $1.33. But, in fact what has happened is no reduction in the TKO share price despite the loss of any projected MSHI revenue. And, because the market is continually rewarding MSHI, it leads me to believe that TKOs share price is overvalued and should be declining in lock-step with MSHI's rise. That is in fact happening since the spinoff, with the exception of yesterday.
So, as you can see, your calculations only validate my point. I love it when that happens
Again, the spinoff did not create additional value to me, the shareholder. It was merely a gimmick that may work for a few weeks or months on the market, but without real news, it will catch up to us.
And, the news that TKO has issued this week is again rank. No revenue anywhere. I swear these people do not know what a dollar is.
Yes, I would be even Stephen if I could get this to about $2.24, but doesn't look like it will happen anytime soon.
Pickett--Where are the revenues?
Nice day huh! Another 13 cents and you are flat right? Wish I could say the same but not that far away, I am averaged about 2.45
I am not missing your point, your point makes no sense to me. Your are mixing together facts and assumptions that have no bearing in valuing the company. MSHI is a seperate entity, their financial position no longer has anything to do with TKO other than TKO owning a stake in it. The cash drain that was MSHI is no longer on the books. The equity TKO has in it is an asset on the books, thats it.
If you want to come up with a value for TKO's share price, you need to determine what their sales are and how much of a multiple you would be willing to pay for that growth.
Its not a complicated story, take their sales, divide by the float, multiply by a factor that you are comfortable with. Could be 3, could be 10, depends on the industry.
Example, 25 million in sales, 70 million float. that equates to .35 cents per share in sales. If you are conservative give it a multiple of lets say 5, you get a share price of 1.78. By 10, you get 3.50.
This is simplified and it doesn't take into account future growth and management abilities, etc. but at least you get a starting point.
Again, you are missing my point. Why is this so difficult?
Look, TKO with MST in the fold was sitting at $2.10 per share. Correct? So, assuming there were $70M shares outstanding, that would put the company's value per the market at $147,000,000. Correct? That already takes into account the $50M in revenue promised by Pickett in 2007.
Now, they come up with this voo doo economics and spin out MST and create MSHI. All the parts are the same with the same anticipated revenue for 2007, except they now trade as two companies. So, because MSHI is trading currently at $1.65 with say 30M shares outstanding, it is worth $49,500,000 according to the market.
And, yet, TKO is still trading at $2.01, which with 70M shares outstanding makes it still worth $140,700,000.
Now, you factor in the fact that TKO owns 60% of MSHI, which when it is trading at $1.65 per share, equals a value of $29,700,000 this slight of hand has supposedly increased TKO value from $147,000,000 to $170,400,000.
What justifies that increase? Nothing. They haven't raised guidance for revenue for either company. Nothing has happened except that they trade as two companies now.
So, my argument is that if the market valued TKO at $147,000,000 before the split of TKO and MSHI, it should be so valued now. It is most like a stock split...nothing has really changed, except the fact that the shareholder has more shares. In this instance, the TKO shareholder doesn't even have more shares, and the company's value really hasn't changed.
It is just another gimmick from Pickett, et al.
Your calculation is not the right method for determining the share price. You need to look at forward sales figures. I would look more at price to sales and assign a multiple of what you think fair market should be.
It is a growth company so you cant really look at the PE (which there is none). I would take a look at what you anticpate this years sales being, figure out from how much sales they do per share and multiply that by some kind of fair market multiple. That should give you a more accurate picture of where it might trade too.
From the market's reaction, it appears that TKO was dragging MSHI down, not the other way around as has been portrayed.
Also, from my numbers I was calculating with yesterday, all things being equal, TKO is worth even less today. If MSHI, assuming 30M shares outstanding, is worth $49,500,000 ($1.65 X 30M shares), that means TKO is worth $97.5M. Which would give TKO, assuming 70M shares outstanding, a fair market value of about $1.39 per share. Not looking too good for TKO right now.
Of course, they can always add to their balance sheet by selling their stake in MSHI, which they should do immediately.
Of course, this would all change if TKO would put out a PR with some guidance or revenue attached. I see they issued another PR today with no revenue. Do they do everything for free over there?
Hopefully TKO starts offloading much of its holding, which probably won't have too great of an effect on the MSHI share price. Does TKO have to file something if they plan on dumping MSHI stock? Or won't we find out until the next quarterly?
MSHI is up again
up almost 100% since they became public
that's 8-1/2% in a day. i'd take that with any co. u can't just look at the dollar gain for any stock. it's the % of gain as i am sure u are well aware.
yeah ginnie...a close with a 12 cent ps gain is pretty darned good for one day! Somewhere, someone, thinks MST has got somethin' goin' for it!!!!!
I guess I wasn't wrong now, was I.
I haven't been wrong about TKO and MST very much...only my initial investment into TKO was wrong, and now I'm paying for it. As I said, spinning out MST did not create additional value for either company. So, if MSHI is to maintain its current lofty price, TKO should be valued somewhere near $1.50 per share. The way TKO was hammered today, I think it is moving in that direction.
u seem to be wrong right now. sorry.
Again I'll sound like a broken record. MST is cursed with the same problem afflicting its majority shareholder, TKO. They can't put any revenue in a news release. Are these deals worth zero money? Why can't they ever ever tell us how these deals will impact the bottom line?
<<<<<Don't worry about it Laking...it looks like I've succeeded in getting a number of posts deleted over there and will continue to police it, because it doesn't seem the moderators are capable.>>>>
Tell me what you meant by this..
We deleted most your post didn't we??
Todays' news....
MSTI Holdings (NuVisions) Signs Agreement with CSI Digital Inc. to Provide First Fully-Integrated IPTV Platform in New York City
MSTI Holdings, Inc. (MSHI.OB), a carrier class communications technology company that specializes in providing true quadruple play services to residential, hospitality and commercial properties, announced today that it has signed an agreement with Portland, Oregon-based CSI Digital Inc. (CSI) to become the first and only true service provider of a fully integrated IPTV, or Internet Protocol Television platform in New York City.
The IPTV content will initially include 300 plus channels in MPEG 2 AND 4 Formats including the most HDTV offerings, the most popular basic and premium cable networks, and the greatest variety of ethnic programming, local stations, and a plethora of all-music channels. The agreement is the first to allow for a TRUE IPTV platform to compete with some the largest traditional cable television and telephone providers in the USA, including, Time Warner, Cablevision, RCN and Verizon. Traditional providers of these services utilize technologies based on radio frequency (RF), even in their newly constructed hybrid fiber coax networks. Traditional RF based platforms have inherent channel limitations due to the bandwidth and architecture constraints. MST’s IPTV platform is the first to use 100% Internet Protocol which enables True Digital Convergence between computer and television capabilities. IPTV overcomes the limitations inherent in RF based technologies.
“In addition to possessing the most advanced services and features, MSTI's NuVisions was a good strategic partner for CSI because, through our presence in so many important locations and buildings, we have the ability to transport IP services throughout the entire scope of New York City,” commented Frank Matarazzo, CEO and Founder of MSTI Holdings, Inc. “This platform offers users a virtually unlimited selection of services, including cable channels, Video on Demand libraries, interactive games and the true convergence of the services for viewing on the TV or computer.” “CSI Digital’s partnership with MST will allow customers in the Tri-State area AND BEYOND to receive the most advanced and robust video programming, voice and data products available from any resource,” said Lu Bolden CSI Digital’s Chief Technology Officer. “MST’s unique platform represents the true digital TV – Internet convergence. Customers can access the Internet, view email, and watch digital video programming on their television from the comfort of their living room.” “With MST’s advanced infrastructure, the company has the ability to deliver to virtually any home, condo or apartment in the greater New York metropolitan area. Their gigabit Ethernet capabilities allow them to transport the IPTV programming, voice and data services from roof top to roof top throughout the City,” added David Luman President of CSI Digital.
About CSI Digital CSI Digital is a nationwide provider of content and communications services. The company provides wholesale digital content (voice, video or data) to service providers. CSI Digital, with its partners, implement complete solutions for providers who want to deliver any form of digital content. The company’s customers include those who want to upgrade an existing facility in order to deliver cost effective competitive packaging and those who want to enter new markets.
CSI Digital customers include multiple system operators (MSOs) seeking to cost-effectively augment and upgrade video content to MPEG-4 as well as telecommunications operators (telcos), Private Providers and Internet Service Providers looking to enter the IPTV or triple-play (voice, video and data) market.
With 200+ video channels offered in a combination of SD and HD formats, the IPTV content is delivered in a preformatted stream so that providers are able to acquire turn-key, wholesale digital content packages without the prohibitive costs associated with processing the raw video programming themselves.
CSI Digital's video products enable providers to: Receive a complete integrated solution from one source Deploy at a fraction of the cost of a self-developed solution Enter new and underserved markets Be assured they have the latest technology Deliver prepackaged or custom products Private label the services Receive operational support without the cost of additional employees About MSTI Holdings, Inc.
MSTI Holdings, Inc. (MSHI.OB) is a communications technology company that specializes in video to the desktop, video conferencing, distance learning, two-way data, and Internet access services. MSTI offers complete sales, installation, and service of VSAT and business television networks, and is a full-service national Internet Service Provider (ISP), offering the latest in web hosting and design. MSTI's NuVisions Broadband services offer cable television, cable modem high-speed Internet, and telephone services to multi-family residences, commercial buildings, and institutional owners. MSTI delivers its services using microwave and fiber optic technology for superior performance, and now offers over 40 channels of high definition television (HDTV). MSTI has recently begun deployment of its new Interactive Wi-Fi, hot-zone system that will offer wireless Internet service in large geographic areas of New York City, and is introducing the newest Powerline Carrier (PLC) technology to high-speed Internet users in apartment buildings, hotels, and business environments. For more information, visit our websites at www.mst-online.com and www.nuvisions.tv.
Statements included in this release may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties such as competitive factors, technological development, market demand and the Company’s ability to obtain new contracts and accurately estimate net revenues due to variability in size, scope and duration of projects, and internal issues in the sponsoring client. Further information on potential factors that could affect the Company’s financial results, can be found in the Company’s Registration Statement and in its Reports on Forms 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Don't worry about it Laking...it looks like I've succeeded in getting a number of posts deleted over there and will continue to police it, because it doesn't seem the moderators are capable.
Regarding, MSHI and TKO, I think you are totally missing my point, so I will have to spell it out for you.
TKO with MST in the fold was worth about $2.10 per share. Correct? That is what the market valued TKO at before it spun out MST. Now, the following numbers are not totally accurate, because nobody really knows how many shares are outstanding for these two companies, but it will hopefully make my point.
TKO, with MST, was valued at $2.10 per share with say around 70 million shares outstanding. Which means it was valued by the market at around $147,000,000.
Now they have spun out MST. According to your figures above, there are 30,000,000 shares outstanding on MSHI and the market is currently setting the price at $1.45 per share. Meaning, the market is valuing MSHI at $43,000,000.
Meaning, if MST is worth $43M and it no longer is trading as part of TKO, TKO should only be worth around $104M. That would mean TKOs share price should be around $1.50 if I'm calculating it correctly. Or, as I said, MSHI should be pennies and TKO should remain where it is at. Or, somewhere in between.
Something is fishy and the fuzzy math doesn't add up. As a holder of TKO, I would want TKO to sell every single share of MST immediately. But, that will never happen, as RP and management have too much personally at stake to divest completely. So, in the end, it is me and other TKO investors that will lose from this deal.
I would appreciate it if somebody could post this on the TKO board, because I have been banned for a week as they don't like negative information posted about TKO on their board.
Good to see you here MLK..I dont think they will sell anytime soon but if TKO are shorts in cash and needed to fund anything then its ok to release some of those shares rather than getting another financiers..
Again sorry about what happened at the TKO board..Hope to see you back there soon and hope you had learned not to take things for granted...
How can MSHI justify a share price above pennies? TKO dumped them because it was a cash drain on TKO. Now, this stock trades for $1.40, nearly as much as TKO does.
Furthermore, how can TKO continue to justify holding shares of this company when it's own company is floundering?
Shouldn't we expect TKO to immediately divest itself of all shares of MSHI in order to maximize the benefits to TKO shareholders?
Failure of TKO management to immediately secure its own future for the next few months by securing access to capital through the sale of all of its MSHI stock should lend itself to another charge of incompetence against TKO management in general and Ron Picket specifically.
Of course, I don't expect TKO management to sell its entire stake in the company, but failure to start selling some at this price is extremely risky. MSHI is a company in the red and the share price of MSHI is sure to follow. Because TKO management's sole responsibility is to maximize TKO shareholder value, shouldn't TKO shareholders immediately demand the sale of all of its MSHI stock? If so, MSHI stock will never be able to maintain its current lofty PPS.
from asblack at yahoo..
TKO acquired 90% interest in MST for $10 million and got 13,500,000 shares of MSHI valued at $18.6 million
TKO got 5,000,000 additional shares of MSHI (in exchange for $5 million indebtedness from MST valued at $7 million
TKO has 18,500,000 shares of MSHI currently trading at $1.38 and valued at about $25.5 million
I'm curious about the $6+ million MST owed TKO and why this has not been reflected in accounts receiveable on their 10Q or maybe I missed that somewhere.
At any rate TKO can claim the 5,000,000 shares (now valued at a tad less that $7 million) and the $1 million in cash as revenue for the quarter, right?
That with the $4 million DoD contract puts us halfway to the $25 million revenue figure Ron promised in his Feb shareholder letter...
I'm starting to think Ron's a pretty good businessman!
This reverse merger with MST is a very complex deal but I like the synergies with TKO. TKO retains the majority stake in the holding company of MST/NuVisions. All sorts of possibilities emerge from this deal.
Posted by asblack from yahoo..Thanks asblack if you are reading this..
A partial list of Beneficial Owner 5% Stockholders:
Telkonet, Inc. 20374 Seneca Meadows ParkwayGermantown, Maryland 20876 - 18,500,000 (3) 62.95 %
Frank T. Matarazzo - 1,723,193 (5) 5.84 %
Ronald W. Pickett -181,526 (6) *
Based on 29,386,538 shares of common stock issued and outstanding as of May 25, 2007.
(3) Includes 5,000,000 shares that were issued upon conversion of $5,000,000 of indebtedness of MST owed to Telkonet, upon the Merger.
(5) Includes 46,620 shares of common stock issuable upon conversion of warrants that are currently convertible. Includes 83,333 shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of stock options that are currently exercisable or will become exercisable within 60 days. Does not include outstanding options to purchase 1,916,667 shares that are not currently exercisable.
(6) Includes 46,620 shares of common stock issuable upon conversion of warrants that are currently convertible. Includes 41,666 shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of stock options that are currently exercisable or will become exercisable within 60 days. Does not include outstanding options to purchase 958,334 shares that are not currently exercisable.
Warren V. Musser 80 Chairman of the Board of Directors Frank T. Matarazzo 46 Chief Executive Officer, Secretary and Director
Ronald W. Pickett 59 President and Director
Thomas C. Lynch 65 Director
Thomas M. Hall, M.D. 55 Director
Keith V. Scarzafava 44 Chief Technology Officer and Director of Operations
asblack3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
no I don't..could it 'possibly' be the same one as tko? even tho it is a bb? i dont know enough about that to know...I just got back from 'fixing' the airconditioner on one of the rental units...and now need to prepare my dad his dinner...after you read this, it is OK to delte it as IT...but my point is that I WILL be able to help tomorrow, afternoon, sometime...we have the art hop tonight, and the doo-daa parade tomorrow....hey...you did a great job today monitoring the TKO board, btw...and it looks like investors like Frank, too...hahahahahaha
Do you know who their transfer agent by any chance??
You're welcome sirius now can you help me find the share structures (Authorized/Oustanding/preffered/restricted)..
Good job, sonny, and thank you for creating this board...
MSTI Holdings, Inc. Common Shares to Commence Trading as
FITX.OB on the OTC Bulletin Board and Announces Closing of $9.1 Million
HAWTHORNE, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 29, 2007 MSTI Holdings, Inc., a Telkonet company (AMEX:TKO) and a carrier class communications technology company that specializes in providing true quadruple play services to residential, hospitality and commercial properties, announced today that its shares will commence trading under the symbol FITX.OB on the over-the-counter bulletin board and that it closed on approximately $3.1 million of equity financing through the sale of common stock and warrants and approximately $6 million of debt financing through the sale of debentures and warrants on May 25, 2007. Palladium Capital Advisors served as our lead placement agent in connection with this offering. The proceeds of this financing will be used for debt repayment, acquisitions, and general working capital of the firm.
Frank Matarazzo, President and Founder of MSTI, said "Becoming a public company will allow MSTI to enjoy a much broader exposure to the investment community and will provide us with the access that we need to the capital markets for widening market share and growing our revenues and earnings." Mr. Matarazzo continued, "With the additional capital from this offering and the greater access to capital associated with being public, we are in a much better position to offer highly competitive services, utilizing the best technologies available within the satellite communications industry."
About MSTI Holdings, Inc.
MSTI Holdings, Inc. (OTCBB:FITX) is a communications technology company that specializes in video to the desktop, video conferencing, distance learning, two-way data, and Internet access services. MSTI offers complete sales, installation, and service of VSAT and business television networks, and is a full-service national Internet Service Provider (ISP), offering the latest in web hosting and design. MSTI's NuVisions Broadband services offer cable television, cable modem high-speed Internet, and telephone services to multi-family residences, commercial buildings, and institutional owners. MSTI delivers its services using microwave and fiber optic technology for superior performance, and now offers over 40 channels of high definition television (HDTV). MSTI has recently begun deployment of its new Interactive Wi-Fi, hot-zone system that will offer wireless Internet service in large geographic areas of New York City, and is introducing the newest Powerline Carrier (PLC) technology to high-speed Internet users in apartment buildings, hotels, and business environments. For more information, visit our websites at www.mst-online.com and www.nuvisionsbroadband.com.
Statements included in this release may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties such as competitive factors, technological development, market demand and the Company's ability to obtain new contracts and accurately estimate net revenues due to variability in size, scope and duration of projects, and internal issues in the sponsoring client. Further information on potential factors that could affect the Company's financial results, can be found in the Company's Registration Statement and in its Reports on Forms 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
CONTACT: Porter, LeVay & Rose, Inc. Michael Porter, President, 212-564-4700 mike@plrinvest.com www.plrinvest.com
Last Updated: May 29, 2007 09:00 EDT
MSTI Holdings, Inc. Common Shares Have Commenced Trading as
FITX.OB on the OTC Bulletin Board
HAWTHORNE, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 31, 2007 MSTI Holdings, Inc., a Telkonet company (AMEX:TKO) and a carrier class communications technology company that specializes in providing true quadruple play services to residential, hospitality and commercial properties, announced today that its shares have commenced trading under the symbol FITX.OB. The company expects a new symbol to be assigned in the near future.
About MSTI Holdings, Inc.
MSTI Holdings, Inc. (FITX.OB) is a communications technology company that specializes in video to the desktop, video conferencing, distance learning, two-way data, and Internet access services. MSTI offers complete sales, installation, and service of VSAT and business television networks, and is a full-service national Internet Service Provider (ISP), offering the latest in web hosting and design. MSTI's NuVisions Broadband services offer cable television, cable modem high-speed Internet, and telephone services to multi-family residences, commercial buildings, and institutional owners. MSTI delivers its services using microwave and fiber optic technology for superior performance, and now offers over 40 channels of high definition television (HDTV). MSTI has recently begun deployment of its new Interactive Wi-Fi, hot-zone system that will offer wireless Internet service in large geographic areas of New York City, and is introducing the newest Powerline Carrier (PLC) technology to high-speed Internet users in apartment buildings, hotels, and business environments. For more information, visit our websites at www.mst-online.com and www.nuvisionsbroadband.com.
Statements included in this release may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties such as competitive factors, technological development, market demand and the Company's ability to obtain new contracts and accurately estimate net revenues due to variability in size, scope and duration of projects, and internal issues in the sponsoring client. Further information on potential factors that could affect the Company's financial results, can be found in the Company's Registration Statement and in its Reports on Forms 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
CONTACT: Rubenstein Public Relations Adam Mazur, 212-843-8073 amazur@rubensteinpr.com
Welcome to MSHI board..
Still putting some info on the ibox..so hang in there
Followers
|
5
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
80
|
Created
|
06/01/07
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |