Microvision Inc (MVIS)

[howardriggin]

Just read revised 10 Q. Have bad headache. Gets worse every quarter. Every day. Glta

[howardriggin]

New form 8 k. 2 offices needed. Spending money they do not have. How do they do it. I’m you or I made no money. How would we rent new Apt?

[gnillish_00]

It would appear that there is confidence after all.

One day drop expressing frustration and a quick return to where we were before the conference call. Trading channel remains in tact suggesting enough support to hold until there is news or revenue.

[lockworld]

Thank you for as complete a description of the Hololens2 and the IVAS projects history and the revenue stream as I have seen.
I also appreciate your thoughtful reply to Howard's message and your description of your rational investment style. I think the tension between speculating and investing keeps things from getting boring!
I am holding into 2022.

[gnillish_00]

I think you are mistaking frustration at the timeline for lack of confidence in the company. You are also ignoring the systematic and deliberate attacks on the share price by large players who are making a killing on shorting this.

As far as working for a company that didn't make money for several years... until it did, that actually worked out rather well for me. It gave me the opportunity to work on project that had the potential of making a real impact on the industry, and ultimately paid off really well and allowed me to buy my first house a couple years out of college.

It used to be that investors put their money where they thought there would be long term potential rather than where they thought they'd get rich over the course of a month or so. That short term perspective is doing a lot of damage to the foundations of the investment culture and will end up causing a lot of people to lose a lot of money when the house of cards comes crashing down around them. I understand the allure of quick returns and am guilty of putting about 25% of my portfolio in more speculative positions and feel your frustration when things don't pan out immediately. MVIS is not one of my speculative positions however -- my current position dates from 2017 and I fully expected it to be at least a 5 year horizon.

[gnillish_00]

MVIS is receiving revenue for the parts being made my Microsoft for the HoloLens2 as royalty payments and have been for a fair while now. There was a $10m pre-payment on those royalties and MVIS has been booking that for the past couple years, though it has only really been significant this past few quarters. In addition to that, they sold a production line to Microsoft so they could produce their own parts early last year. This is likely what was referred to by the Army when they praised MS for taking more control of their supply chain in regards to IVAS.

What we have not clearly seen so far is revenue resulting from the IVAS project. It isn't clear if that is because the initial units delivered for testing so far have been under some sort of development agreement between MS, MVIS and the army, or how that is all going to pan out. With the fielding of IVAS pushed to 2022, the answer to that question is again delayed. Best guess is that MVIS and MS have some sort of development agreement where they are "sharing" some of the costs associated with the program and revenue will occur when the devices for field use are shipped.

[howardriggin]

Good for you. After the unbelievable drop Friday. It shows only one thing. No confidence in product or this ridiculous manage to team. Their grade is F- They show no progress if you look at all prerequisites to make a company profitable. These guys are the worst. How would you feel working for a company that spends money but never makes money. Does that make any sense?

[lockworld]

Thank you for the update. I have not seen anything about MVIS getting anything for the Hololens technology. When will that show up as revenue? Thoughts?
I have had shares for years.

[Slojab]

This will most likely prolong this downtrend we've been in into early next year

That's what I meant by "If fundamentals are all that's going to move the stock, I expect this is just the beginning".

I hope the company does good and all remaining shareholders do, as well. I got out on the run to $30. Won't be able to buy the house next door to the one I bought for my sister down in Georgia, but it'll provide a solid down payment. It'll be nice to get away from the chaos when I go down there for the Winter.

[gnillish_00]

I think the fundamentals look very bullish -- just not in the timeframe people have become accustomed to.

It wasn't all that long ago that 3 year timeframe was considered short term and investors looked out 10 years for real gains. Now it seems like the attitude is "it is isn't going this week it isn't worth investing in."

For MVIS they've adjusted the expectation to sometime summer 2022. Not great news for those who have been holding this and expecting movement this fall (like I have been), but with a more definite time expectation there is light at the end of the tunnel. This will most likely prolong this downtrend we've been in into early next year providing some good buying opportunities for those who can afford to be patient.

I am holding my remaining shares for now, and will look at add to my position should the price drop back close to the $5 level, but with the guidance on real revenues being 7 months away, I see other places it makes more sense to put my money in the meantime. Incidentally, these are shares I purchased in 2017. I did sell off about 80% of my position earlier this summer which allowed me to buy a house that is a great fit for my family for the next 25 years.

[BuyLow_Sell_High]

Good lord dark pool is above 60% again. We might see $45 if WSB jumps back on this ticker, to no credit of management.

Short Interest 30,860,436 shares - source: NASDAQ
Short Interest Ratio 4.62 Days to Cover
Short Interest % Float 18.97% - source: NASDAQ (short interest), Capital IQ (float)
Dark Pool Short Volume 4,720,884 shares - source: FINRA
Dark Pool Short Volume Ratio 62.01% - source: FINRA

[howardriggin]

Seeking Alpha is like reading a pre k reading book. Joke. Paid to express whatever somebody pays/suggest they write. Joke

[howardriggin]

Don’t think so. As you can see headed to $3.50 in a few days. What a disgrace to shareholders fro “ management”. Need total team to resign. No excuse. Get out. Now. Wasted talent

[howardriggin]

Don’t think so. As you can see headed to $3.50 in a few days. What a disgrace to shareholders fro “ management”. Need total team to resign. No excuse. Get out. Now. Wasted talent

[Slojab]

Yeah, you're right on that. I shouldn't have assigned any credit to them for the move down.

If fundamentals are all that's going to move the stock, I expect this is just the beginning. Remember where it was before all the GME/AMC nonsense took hold of the market?

[gnillish_00]

Conference call yesterday afternoon basically setting the expectation of no significant revenue until June is more to blame than anything Seeking Alpha could write. I don't know anyone who takes them seriously anymore considering their complete lack of editorial oversight and propensity to publish paid hit pieces with glaring factual errors.

[Slojab]

Seeking Alpha article this morning hit the stock hard.

Microvision slumps as adjusted EBITDA loss widens

[gnillish_00]

Similar numbers to last quarter -- lost money at about the same rate despite higher burn rate.

When you dig deeper, there are some encouraging numbers in the earnings report:

Royalty revenue up

Inventory 1.182m -- this tells us they have product on hand and quite possibly have orders to fill.

Cash on hand -- they have enough cash on hand for 3 years at the current increased burn rate. This tells customers that they have staying power

Staffing up -- this accounts for a large portion of the increased burn rate and signals fundamental optimism about the direction they are going.

Overall I'd say this is the most encouraging report we've seen in the past year. I would have really liked to see product revenue, but those inventory levels tell us that revenue is on the way.

[BuyLow_Sell_High]

Howard nothing personal, I suspect you're correct on earnings but hope you're wrong on $3.50. Maybe we get lucky and they announce a new contract and the price goes to $33.50.

[howardriggin]

Have bad feeling today will be one of worst earnings ( which will be negative) and revenues will be worse. Share price should then drop to $3.50. Sorry. Rumors around 2 houses.

[howardriggin]

Update

Share price down again
Will keep all holders up to date.

[gnillish_00]

Most of my portfolio is down enough to hurt a bit. The only bright spot has been PVL which has some decent upside as oil and natural gas prices continue to climb along with a decent monthly dividend that is in the 12% range currently.

[gnillish_00]

That is what the bulk of my last post was in reference to.

SS came across as a little more collected and confident, but really didn't say anything new. He did a better job of laying out what he sees as the MVIS advantage in the market place more clearly which was important, and made an attempt to highlight the fact that until orders come in, all the agreements and partnerships that other companies are touting are really just non-binding statements of intent and could change rapidly as products start to hit the market (or don't as is likely in some cases).

Sadly, until we see revenue from something other than the Microsoft royalty contract, this is going to keep sliding as people sell out of frustration and the relentless short attacks continue.

On the plus side, we are getting close to where we saw a surge of institutional buying and levels I'd consider to be a decent buy point.

[Slojab]

If they did, they apparently didn't like what they heard. Then again, it may not have has anything to do with it. GME and AMC are down also.

[Chaz1951]

Anyone catch the podcast today?

[howardriggin]

Next Thursday results. I’m in Vegas. Gonna take the UNDER BY 25% on MVIS. EASY MONEY

[howardriggin]

Appreciate great reply. Have great weekend

[gnillish_00]

No reason for it to change course right now - there has been no fundamental change or news. Until that happens, the share price will continue to bleed under frustration and short attacks.

The interview gave us a little glimpse into what SS is thinking, but nothing really new. MVIS still has a solid offering based on specs and price, but like other companies no substantive orders yet.

SS came across a little better in terms of content and style, but clearly is a long way from being a polished speaker. He did lay out a pretty clear case for the value proposition of their approach (standard, commodity parts that can be easily sourced at reasonable prices all mixed with their IP/software magic sauce) which I think will give them a solid shot at grabbing market share when the time comes, but he also pointed out that none of the companies are really to the market adoption point despite what their press releases say.

To paraphrase Cuba Gooding Jr -- Show me the orders!

To be fair, I still believe MVIS has a huge upside potential if you manage your risk and can afford to wait it out.

[howardriggin]

Lo and Behold. Mvis dropping agin. Strange

[howardriggin]

This should be interesting.

[Chaz1951]

FYI…

MicroVision, Inc.
MicroVision, Inc. has just released the following news:

MicroVision CEO Interview with InvestorPlace Analyst to be Webcast on October 21

Click here to read the full article

If you have any questions, or would like to contact Investor Relations, please reply to this email.

MicroVision, Inc.
6244 185th Avenue NE, Suite 100, Redmond, WA 98052 United States of America
https://www.microvision.com

[howardriggin]

Calif. why would they spend money if they are losing money? Economics 101. Correct

[gladeshawk]

After trading in and out of MVIS over the past two years or so I am looking for $6.00 or so for support. If that cracks $2.00 in a hurry. Just my two cents worth. HAWK

[howardriggin]

Agree. Frustrating. Have a great weekend

[Slojab]

I have no idea what the present share price represents, be it the outlook for the future based on potential or the remains of speculation over a buyout.

I got out during the run to $30. I wish everyone still in the best of luck.

[gnillish_00]

Are you talking their Germany office or their new space in Redmond? In Washington it is actually an almost 10 year lease with right to extension. Very unlikely they'd be signing those kinds of deals unless they were confident in the path they are on.

The real question is what is the timeframe they are planning for? They have enough cash on hand and shares in the treasury to bridge another 2 years even with increased burn rate, but their share price will not hold if they are not showing additional revenue yet this year.

[gnillish_00]

Present share price is probably a pretty good estimation of value based on expected near term future business. Most of the buyout speculation value has bled away at this point, and until we have a clearer picture of what future revenue will end up being the market is placing a conservative value on the best guess.

News of orders will allow this to find an appropriate level based on the numbers and should provide a good deal more stability. On the other hand lack of news by the end of year will push things down sharply and piss off the long term supporters -- not what we want to see for the company or the community.

[gnillish_00]

Seeing fairly strong long support in the mid $9's but if they continue with the profound silence I think we'll see additional erosion in confidence with the relentless short pressure.

I'm still bullish long term, but management needs to communicate what is going on.

By all appearances they've lined up what they need to be successful, and there appears to be activity behind the scenes but until there is confirmation, we are left speculating.

Frustrating, but it is what it is.

[howardriggin]

New info. MVIS headed to the basement. $1.00 soon. Not $2.00. Have a great day. Hey CEO Charmin. You should have been fired 2 years ago.

[howardriggin]

Everybody buying the dip or
Crying on the dip. Pity this company is never making money but signed 5 year lease. Not making money but spending cash. Anyone alive can explain. CEO still big loser. Charmin the great

[Slojab]

It was under $2 a year ago. So, it's still up 5 times from then. But it's not so much a fundamental value based on it's financials you're seeing today, as it is the speculation on a buyout that drove it to it's present sp.

[howardriggin]

April of ‘21. Stock price $28.00
Oct ‘21. Stock price $9.88. Anyone want to do math? Hey CEO Charmin. You watching?

[howardriggin]

Think I’ll buy when it hits $1.22 again. Think it might be in October

[howardriggin]

$9.00. Here we come.

[howardriggin]

Anyone have any thoughts on when price stops retreating. Info shows $7.20 soon. Very depressing

[howardriggin]

One quick question

Does this S P ever go up?
Think 47 out of last 50 trading days. Down

[Slojab]

The news everyone's been waiting for isn't coming fast enough.

[howardriggin]

And
Share price continues to drop.

[howardriggin]

Hmmm

[Slojab]

Quiet stock lately.