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Microsoft $2.5 Million Calls • Strike: 235 • Expiration: 6/16/23
By: Cheddar Flow | January 19, 2023
• $MSFT $2.5M OTM Calls
Strike: 235
Expiration: 6/16/23
*At the Ask*
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$MSFT Microsoft is cutting 10,000 workers, almost 5% of its workforce, joining other tech companies that have scaled back their pandemic-era expansions. The company said in a regulatory filing Wednesday that the layoffs were a response to “macroeconomic conditions and changing customer priorities.”
https://apnews.com/article/microsoft-job-cuts-18fe0c9b8c9ff856e932e075161b1f43#:~:text=Microsoft%20is%20cutting%2010%2C000%20workers,conditions%20and%20changing%20customer%20priorities.%E2%80%9D
Potential tailwinds suggest Microsoft EPS upside - Morgan Stanley
By: Investing.com | January 18, 2023
Morgan Stanley said more durable than feared demand, opex discipline, and shifting foreign exchange impacts suggest a potential upside to Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) EPS.
The analysts, who maintained an Overweight rating and $307 per share price target on Microsoft, told investors in a 2Q23 preview note that while it's not hard to find indicators that the tech giant is not immune to the weaker IT spending environment, the majority of evidence in its survey work suggests favorable near-term consolidation trends. In addition, they stated that it also points to further improvement in the longer-term positioning against core secular growth initiatives.
"While an elongated period of cloud optimization could leave Azure growth below the company's guidance implying 37% constant currency (cc) YoY growth, and 3QFY23 guidance could point to further deceleration to the low 30%'s in cc, we believe investor bogeys of ~35%-36% YoY cc Azure growth and a FY23 exit rate of 26-28% YoY cc are already well reflected in the shares," wrote the analysts.
They added that with a current hiring pause in place (Microsoft announced workforce reductions of approximately 10,000 employees after the note's release), they see opex growth "decelerating significantly into the second half of Microsoft's fiscal year." Furthermore, they said a recent weakening of the USD will shift FX impacts to benefit Microsoft's results.
"Longer-term, we remain confident in Microsoft's durable double-digit constant currency growth profile and expanding margins, supporting an attractive risk/reward profile. At ~20x 2024 EPS, or ~1.2x 2-years PEG, Microsoft trades at a discount to its historical trading range, other large cap software peers, as well as other megacap tech names," concluded the analysts.
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Microsoft $4.7 Million Put • Strike: 240 • Expiration: 1/27/23
By: Cheddar Flow | January 18, 2023
• $MSFT $4.7M Put
Strike: 240
Expiration: 1/27/23
*At the Ask*
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Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella sent this email to employees today
By: Markets & Mayhem | January 18, 2023
• Microsoft $MSFT CEO Satya Nadella sent this email to employees today.
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Microsoft confirms 10,000 job cuts, less than 5% of workforce; projects an EPS hit
By: Investing.com | January 18, 2023
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has announced plans to slash its global workforce by approximately 10,000 people by the end of its third fiscal quarter.
“This represents less than 5 percent of our total employee base, with some notifications happening today. It’s important to note that while we are eliminating roles in some areas, we will continue to hire in key strategic areas,” CEO Satya Nadella said in an email to employees.
Moreover, the tech behemoth said it will make “changes to our hardware portfolio, and lease consolidation to create higher density across our workspaces.”
As a result, the company expects to incur a $1.2 billion hit in its second fiscal quarter or a $0.12 impact to diluted earnings per share (EPS).
“These decisions are difficult, but necessary,” Nadella added.
Microsoft stock was up about 0.6% in premarket trade on Wednesday.
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Microsoft to cut thousands of jobs across divisions - reports
By: Investing.com | January 17, 2023
(Reuters) -Microsoft Corp plans to cut thousands of jobs with some roles expected to be eliminated in human resources and engineering divisions, according to media reports on Tuesday.
The expected layoffs would be the latest in the U.S. technology sector, where companies including Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) have announced retrenchment exercises in response to slowing demand and a worsening global economic outlook.
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s move could indicate that the tech sector may continue to shed jobs.
"From a big picture perspective, another pending round of layoffs at Microsoft suggests the environment is not improving, and likely continues to worsen," Morningstar analyst Dan Romanoff said.
U.K broadcaster Sky News reported, citing sources, that Microsoft plans to cut about 5% of its workforce, or about 11,000 roles.
The company plans to cut jobs in a number of engineering divisions on Wednesday, Bloomberg News reported, according to a person familiar with the matter, while Insider reported that Microsoft could cut recruiting staff by as much as one-third.
The cuts will be significantly larger than other rounds in the past year, the Bloomberg report said.
Microsoft declined to comment on the reports.
The company had 221,000 full-time employees, including 122,000 in the United States and 99,000 internationally, as of June 30, according to filings.
Microsoft is under pressure to maintain growth rates at its cloud unit Azure, after several quarters of downturn in the personal computer market hurt Windows and devices sales.
It had said in July last year that a small number of roles had been eliminated. In October, news site Axios reported that Microsoft had laid off under 1,000 employees across several divisions.
Shares of Microsoft, which is set to report quarterly results on Jan. 24, were marginally higher in late afternoon trading.
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Microsoft $1.3 Million Put • Strike: 240 • Expiration: 1/27/23
By: Cheddar Flow | January 17, 2023
• $MSFT $1.3M Put
Strike: 240
Expiration: 1/27/23
*Above the Ask*
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Microsoft stock slips as Guggenheim downgrades to Sell
By: Investing.com | January 17, 2023
Guggenheim analysts downgraded Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) to Sell from Neutral, sending shares over 1% lower in pre-market Tuesday.
“We don’t necessarily expect MSFT to miss numbers, but they may disappoint investors nevertheless for both F2Q23 and guidance for the year… While most investors see MSFT as a large stable business that can weather any storm, it does have vulnerabilities, some of which could be exacerbated by this macro slowdown,” they wrote in a client note.
The analysts also made a number of rating changes in the broker’s software research coverage. They note that “Security is now showing cracks” as well after holding up really well. Overall, the analysts believe valuations have more room to correct lower
In addition to Microsoft, the analysts also downgraded Cloudflare (NYSE:NET) and Workday Inc (NASDAQ:WDAY) to Sell from Neutral, and Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW), Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK) , and Zscaler Inc (NASDAQ:ZS) to Neutral from Buy.
“We remind investors that there are valid reasons why Software traditionally trades at a premium to other sectors and the broader market, and we expect this to continue. However, even good companies (and we believe all of the companies in our coverage universe can be at least described as such) can trade at levels above where they should be at times,” the analysts concluded.
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Microsoft to expand ChatGPT access as OpenAI investment rumors swirl
By: Investing.com | January 16, 2023
(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) on Monday said it is widening access to hugely popular software from OpenAI, a startup it is backing whose futuristic ChatGPT chatbot has captivated Silicon Valley.
Microsoft said the startup's tech, which it so far has previewed to its cloud-computing customers in a program it called the Azure OpenAI Service, was now generally available, a distinction that's expected to bring a flood of new usage.
The news comes as Microsoft has looked at adding to the $1 billion stake in OpenAI it announced in 2019, two people familiar with the matter previously told Reuters. The news site Semafor reported earlier this month that Microsoft might invest $10 billion; Microsoft declined to comment on any potential deal.
Public interest in OpenAI surged following its November release of ChatGPT, a text-based chatbot that can draft prose, poetry or even computer code on command. ChatGPT is powered by generative artificial intelligence, which conjures new content after training on vast amounts of data -- tech that Microsoft is letting more customers apply to use.
ChatGPT itself, not just its underlying tech, will soon be available via Microsoft's cloud, it said in a blog post.
Microsoft said it is vetting customers' applications to mitigate potential abuse of the software, and its filters can screen for harmful content users might input or the tech might produce.
The business potential of such software has garnered massive venture-capital investment in startups producing it, at a time funding has otherwise dried up. Already, some companies have used the tech to create marketing content or demonstrate how it could negotiate a cable bill.
Microsoft said CarMax (NYSE:KMX), KPMG and others were using its Azure OpenAI service. Its press release quoted an Al Jazeera vice president as saying the service could help the news organization summarize and translate content.
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MSFT Another important bounce off the 200 week SMA for Microsoft
By: TrendSpider | January 16, 2023
• $MSFT Another important bounce off the 200 week SMA for Microsoft.
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Microsoft (MSFT) Shares Acquired by Founders Capital Management LLC
By: MarketBeat | January 15, 2023
• Founders Capital Management LLC lifted its position in shares of Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFT) by 1.6% in the third quarter, according to its most recent disclosure with the SEC. The institutional investor owned 128,131 shares of the software giant's stock after buying an additional 2,008 shares during the quarter. Microsoft comprises 8.4% of Founders Capital Management LLC's holdings, making the stock its 3rd biggest position. Founders Capital Management LLC's holdings in Microsoft were worth $29,842,000 at the end of the most recent quarter...
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Microsoft Co. (MSFT) Shares Acquired by Girard Partners LTD.
By: MarketBeat | January 13, 2023
• Girard Partners LTD. lifted its holdings in shares of Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFT) by 0.5% in the 3rd quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The firm owned 109,420 shares of the software giant's stock after buying an additional 550 shares during the quarter. Microsoft makes up approximately 3.4% of Girard Partners LTD.'s investment portfolio, making the stock its 5th largest position. Girard Partners LTD.'s holdings in Microsoft were worth $25,483,000 as of its most recent SEC filing...
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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Great name, tons of talking heads negative on it. Earnings will tell the tail
By: Options Mike | January 15, 2023
• $MSFT clawed it's way back to the 50D.
Great name, tons of talking heads negative on it. Earnings will tell the tail.
100D next target if it wants more.
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Today the best performer in the DJIA is Microsoft Corporation
By: Thom Hartle | January 10, 2023
• Today (8:34 CST), the best performer in the $DJIA is Microsoft Corporation.
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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Had been a stronger name in tech
By: Options Mike | January 8, 2023
• $MSFT hit with a big d/g this week gap and dropped. Nice reversal candle on Friday.. can we get back to the 8d now?
Had been a stronger name in tech.
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$MSFT Tough week for Microsoft after a downgrade from $UBS
By: TrendSpider | January 7, 2023
• $MSFT Tough week for Microsoft after a downgrade from $UBS.
Will the Volume PoC hold for a second time?
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Jefferies Financial Group Reiterates $270.00 Price Target for Microsoft (MSFT)
By: MarketBeat | January 5, 2023
• Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has been assigned a $270.00 price objective by research analysts at Jefferies Financial Group in a research report issued to clients and investors on Thursday, Borsen Zeitung reports. Jefferies Financial Group's price target would suggest a potential upside of 17.85% from the stock's previous close...
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Last dump in Microsoft found buyers at the Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) from the 2018 low
By: TrendSpider | January 5, 2023
• last dump in $MSFT found buyers at the VWAP from the 2018 low an undercut of that to flush stops would be a place for a possible bounce, no position.
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$MSFT Microsoft fills the gap from November today following a downgrade and price target reduction from $UBS
By: TrendSpider | January 4, 2023
• $MSFT Microsoft fills the gap from November today following a downgrade and price target reduction from $UBS.
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JUST IN: Microsoft $MSFT is preparing to launch a version of its Bing search engine that uses the artificial intelligence behind ChatGPT - The Information
By: StockMKTNewz | January 4, 2023
• JUST IN: Microsoft $MSFT is preparing to launch a version of its Bing search engine that uses the artificial intelligence behind ChatGPT - The Information
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Microsoft $1.9 Million Put LEAP • Strike: 190 • Expiration: 1/17/25
By: Cheddar Flow | January 4, 2023
• $MSFT $1.9M OTM Put LEAP
Strike: 190
Expiration: 1/17/25
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Microsoft videogame testers form company's first U.S. union
By: Daniel Wiessner | January 3, 2023
(Reuters) - A group of about 300 videogame testers at Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) subsidiary Zenimax Studios have voted to unionize, the Communication Workers of America union (CWA) said on Tuesday, marking a first for the tech giant in the United States.
The CWA said Zenimax employees at four locations in Maryland and Texas voted overwhelmingly to join the union, but did not provide a tally. Zenimax owns major game franchises including The Elder Scrolls and Fallout.
Microsoft did not immediately respond to a request for comment. It has said it would voluntarily recognize the union if the workers voted to unionize.
Voluntarily agreeing to bargain allows Microsoft to avoid a formal election overseen by the U.S. National Labor Relations Board and the legal battles that often ensue.
CWA President Christopher Shelton in a statement said Microsoft has set itself apart from other tech companies that have discouraged union campaigns.
"Microsoft is charting a different course which will strengthen its corporate culture and ability to serve its customers and should serve as a model for the industry and as a blueprint for regulators," Shelton said.
The company in June entered into an agreement with the CWA to remain neutral in union organizing campaigns at Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ:ATVI), which Microsoft is seeking to purchase for $69 billion. U.S. regulators sued to block the deal last month.
Game testers at Activision units Blizzard Albany and Raven (NASDAQ:RAVN) Software voted in 2022 to join unions amid claims by the CWA that the company has threatened and retaliated against union supporters. Activision has denied wrongdoing.
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Microsoft Corp. 225 support til it breaks if it does big gap til fill below there
By: Options Mike | January 2, 2023
• $MSFT continue r/s vs the $QQQ. 225 support til it breaks if it does big gap til fill below there.
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Microsoft (MSFT) 2023 Stock Market Forecast
By: Tom Bowley | January 1, 2023
Large Caps Must Rebound
Our major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are driven mostly by large cap performance. These are two market-cap-weighted indices, meaning that large cap stocks like Apple, Inc. (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) will carry a heavy burden. The following six companies represent more than 20% of the S&P 500 and nearly 42% of the NASDAQ 100. If they don't rebound and begin to outperform, it'll likely be another difficult year ahead. Here's a quick glance at each of the four on long-term monthly charts:
MSFT:
The monthly PPO was very stretched on MSFT as it moved unabatedly higher for a decade. The 2022 selloff was a necessary one, but now that MSFT has seen a 50-month SMA test, I feel better about this one advancing in 2023.
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$MSFT Parabolic trend for the past decade
By: Cheddar Flow | December 28, 2022
• $MSFT Parabolic trend for the past decade
Price found support on the trend earlier this year. If it breaks in the future, it will signal an end to the entire trend's structure.
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Best Performer in the DJIA is Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
By: Thom Hartle | December 28, 2022
• Today (8:36 CST), the best performer in the $DJIA is Microsoft Corporation.
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Why 5 Goldman Sachs Conviction List Technology Stocks May Be Huge 2023 Winners
By: 24/7 Wall St. | December 27, 2022
Microsoft
This is a more conservative way for investors to participate in the massive cloud growth. Microsoft Inc. (NASDAQ: MSFT) develops, licenses and supports software, services, devices, and solutions worldwide. The company operates in these three segments.
The Productivity and Business Processes segment offers Office, Exchange, SharePoint, Microsoft Teams, Office 365 Security and Compliance, Microsoft Viva, and Skype for Business; Skype, Outlook.com, OneDrive and LinkedIn; and Dynamics 365, a set of cloud-based and on-premises business solutions for organizations and enterprise divisions.
Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud segment licenses SQL, Windows Servers, Visual Studio, System Center and related Client Access Licenses; GitHub provides a collaboration platform and code hosting service for developers; Nuance provides health care and enterprise AI solutions; and Azure, a cloud platform. It also offers enterprise support, Microsoft consulting, and nuance professional services to assist customers in developing, deploying and managing Microsoft server and desktop solutions; and training and certification on Microsoft products.
The More Personal Computing segment provides Windows original equipment manufacturer (OEM) licensing and other non-volume licensing of the Windows operating system; Windows Commercial, such as volume licensing of the Windows operating system, Windows cloud services, and other Windows commercial offerings; patent licensing; and Windows Internet of Things. It also offers Surface, PC accessories, PCs, tablets, gaming and entertainment consoles, and other devices; Gaming, including Xbox hardware and Xbox content and services; video games and third-party video game royalties; and Search, including Bing and Microsoft advertising. The company sells its products through OEMs, distributors and resellers; and directly through digital marketplaces, online stores, and retail stores.
The software giant posted first-quarter fiscal 2023 results that beat Wall Street expectations on the top and bottom lines, though cloud revenue came in lower than expected and the company’s quarterly guidance fell short of expectations as well. Microsoft plans to moderate its operating expense growth in the next few quarters until demand heats back up.
Microsoft stock comes with a 1.11% dividend. Goldman Sachs has set a $315 price target. The consensus target is $296.91, and shares last closed at $238.73.
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Microsoft Co. (MSFT) Receives Average Rating of "Moderate Buy" from Brokerages
By: MarketBeat | December 26, 2022
Shares of Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFT - Get Rating) have been given a consensus recommendation of "Moderate Buy" by the thirty-five analysts that are presently covering the stock, MarketBeat.com reports. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a hold recommendation and twenty-six have assigned a buy recommendation to the company. The average 12-month target price among brokerages that have updated their coverage on the stock in the last year is $297.22...
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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to All!
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Microsoft (MSFT) Put Option Premiums Are At High Levels, Worth Shorting For Income
By: Barchart | December 23, 2022
Microsoft (MSFT) stock is off over 2% in the past week, and down 8.75% since mid-day Dec. 14. It closed Dec. 23 at $238.19 off 2.5% in that day alone. The market is punishing the stock. This has raised its put option premiums for out-of-the-money put strike prices, making them ideal to short. That makes it an ideal opportunity for value investors to create short-term income plays.
Microsoft's Fundamentals
Microsoft is one of the few tech companies that is an extremely strong and durable cash flow-producing generator. Last quarter its Q3 revenue was up 11% YoY but diluted earnings per share (EPS) was down 13%.
But Microsoft still generated free cash flow (FCF) of $16.9 billion, albeit down 10 percent year-over-year. That still represents almost one-third of its quarterly revenue of $50.1 billion. As for its outlook the company said it expects “materially weaker” PC demand in the coming quarter. But its cloud business is still expected to be “healthy.”
Since analysts still project revenue to reach $213.4 billion for the year ending June 30, its FCF could be as high as $66.36 billion. That is still above the $63.3 billion in FCF it made last year.
Moreover, if MSFT stock were to trade at its average historical FCF yield of 3.0% the market cap will eventually rise back to $2.21 trillion (i.e., $66.36b/0.03=$2,210 billion). Since MSFT has a market cap today of just $1.82 trillion, that implies MSFT stock could rise 21.4% to at least $289 per share. This is likely where it will trade sometime in the next six months, based on these fundamentals.
It also means that the put options, which are very high now, are worth shorting to create income plays.
Shorting OTM MSFT Puts For Income
MSFT stock trades for $238.19 as of Dec. 22. But its puts expiring Jan 27, 36 days from now, show that the $210 strike price puts have a midprice premium of $2.01 per contract. That represents an immediate yield of almost 1.0% (i.e., $2.01/$210 = 0.96%) in a little over one month. That also represents an annualized return of 11.5%.
MSFT - Put Options Expiring Jan. 27, 2023 - Barchart - As of Dec. 23, 2022
This means that if an investor secures $21,000 in cash and/or margin with his brokerage firm, he can put in an order to “sell to open” at the midprice of $2.01 for the $210 strike price. This price is now 11.84% below the present stock price. So, MSFT stock would really have to tumble in the next month before the investor would have to buy shares at $210.00 per share.
Keep in mind that it's likely that Microsoft may have announced its earnings for the quarter ending Dec. by then, as is its usual practice. So, unless EPS is likely to seriously decline, it may not actually reach that price. But even if it does, the investor will be able to get in at a significant discount from today's price.
That is why value investors are looking very closely at shorting out-of-the-money (OTM) put options to create income each month.
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Microsoft Retested this downward TL and bounced
By: Cheddar Flow | December 21, 2022
• $MSFT Retested this downward TL and bounced
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Netflix will be next on Microsoft’s shopping list
By: Reuters | December 20, 2022
NEW YORK, Dec 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Satya Nadella keeps thinking bigger. Microsoft’s (MSFT.O) chief executive has been buying new businesses at an impressive clip. Look for him to add Netflix (NFLX.O) to the list in 2023.
Since his 2014 promotion into the technology titan’s corner office, Nadella has embarked on a pricey shopping spree. It started with the $2.5 billion acquisition of the company behind the hit game Minecraft. Later, Microsoft bought LinkedIn for $26 billion and the speech recognition and artificial intelligence software developer Nuance for $20 billion. Activision Blizzard (ATVI.O) was by far the largest disclosed target, at $69 billion.
Microsoft is busy fighting U.S. trustbusters for the right to absorb the “Call of Duty” creator. Putting it under the same roof as gaming console Xbox has led to regulatory concerns about market dominance. Even if Nadella loses out on the video-game company for competition reasons, however, owning Netflix would make strategic sense and probably be an easier sell in Washington and Brussels.
The two companies are already closely aligned. Netflix chose Microsoft as its advertising partner for a new advertising-supported subscription service. Microsoft President Brad Smith also sits on the Netflix board. Part of the rationale for a deal is that Microsoft wants to offer a video-game streaming service over multiple devices.
Netflix has its own big plans in gaming. In 2022, the company co-led by Reed Hastings snapped up developer Spry Fox, its sixth in-house studio. Becoming part of the Microsoft empire would supercharge those ambitions. A bundle with streaming TV and games together is not hard to fathom.
With a market value 13 times that of Netflix, as of early December, $1.8 trillion Microsoft can afford Netflix. A 30% premium would value the Netflix enterprise at nearly $190 billion. Significant cost savings would be hard to find, however. And after taxing the $8 billion of operating profit that analysts project for Netflix in 2024, the implied return on investment would only be half its 8% weighted average cost of capital, per Morningstar analysts.
Nadella has defied such back-of-the-envelope financial logic before. And if nothing else, he has shown a willingness to be a bold dealmaker. On that basis, it’s easy to believe Microsoft will set its sights on Netflix.
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On the Dip, Microsoft (MSFT) Looks Like a Solid Pick Once Again
By: Investing.com | December 20, 2022
-> Despite a 30% decline from the highs, Microsoft stock still looks somewhat expensive
-> But the company is managing through a slump in PC sales; the long-term outlook remains solid
-> Sheer size limits the upside, but with lower risk, MSFT stock is attractive here
At this point, no investor is going to get rich off Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock — at least, not quickly. With a market capitalization of $1.82 billion, the Redmond, Washington-based giant simply is too large and too mature to post stunning multi-year returns.
But, particularly with a 30% decline from last year’s highs, MSFT is precisely the kind of stock that long-term investors should own to add wealth consistently. It remains one of the best — maybe the best — businesses out there. Valuation is not necessarily cheap even after the sell-off, but in the context of growth potential and near-term headwinds, it’s certainly reasonable. All told, there’s enough here to like.
A Difficult 2023?
Wall Street views on MSFT seem to highlight a bit of a contradiction. The average price target on the stock sits at $297, suggesting a 23% upside (plus another 1%-plus in dividends). Yet the consensus outlook for earnings per share in fiscal 2023 (ending June) suggests growth of less than 4% year-over-year, a notable deceleration from the 16% increase posted in fiscal 2022.
In other words, analysts believe MSFT should trade at about 31x earnings — even though those earnings are barely expected to grow at all. (In fact, a chunk of what growth Microsoft is expected to drive comes from share repurchases rather than increased profits from the operating business.)
It seems strange to be so bullish on the company ahead of such a difficult year. And, indeed, it’s likely to be a difficult year: Microsoft management admitted as much on the fiscal first quarter conference call back in late October.
The company is simply facing a series of challenges. The strong dollar is providing a headwind: currency took five full percentage points off the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter and cut nine points off the increase in operating profit.
Microsoft benefited from the pandemic-driven boom in sales of personal computers; that tailwind is reversing, with Windows revenue from PC sales down 15% year-over-year in fiscal Q1. And in the enterprise market, customers are tightening their belts, providing another potential brake on overall growth.
Wall Street’s caution toward FY23 earnings, at least, seems logical. To some investors, its optimism toward Microsoft stock might not make nearly as much sense.
The Long-Term Case
But the Street’s outlook actually does make sense — and perhaps even highlights the opportunity here. FY23 is going to be a difficult year for Microsoft, particularly in the context of its impressive turnaround over the past decade. What’s important, however, is that it’s going to be a difficult year because of the external environment, not because of any failings in the business, competitive problems, or other factors.
Whatever the actual bottom-line growth rate this year, the business is in fine shape. In the cloud space, Azure continues to chase down Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) in the bid for top market share, and Microsoft seems to have distanced itself from the likes of Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG), and Oracle (NYSE:ORCL).
Windows and Office still have essentially no competition. Even Bing appears to be taking market share, though Google still dominates the search market.
Meanwhile, the challenges in the external environment are going to come to an end. The dollar will stabilize. PC sales likely return to their admittedly modest long-term growth rate. How the macro environment shakes out is anyone’s guess, but over time it will even out.
The point is that the stock market — and yes, most stock analysts — are forward-looking. For Microsoft, it’s not only about results for fiscal 2023 but the outlook for fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2033.
That outlook hasn’t really changed. The only thing that has is the price. Long-term, those are both good things.
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Microsoft Retesting this downward TL
By: Cheddar Flow | December 19, 2022
• $MSFT Retesting this downward TL
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Microsoft CEO @satyanadella on ChatGPT & the AI wave:
By: The Transcript | December 17, 2022
• "[ChatGPT] was all trained on the Azure supercomputer...If you look at & check with any elite AI team out there, they will tell you that the best infrastructure for doing anything AI is Azure...We're leading when it comes to AI"
$MSFT CEO @satyanadella on ChatGPT & the AI wave:
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) December 17, 2022
"[ChatGPT] was all trained on the Azure supercomputer...If you look at & check with any elite AI team out there, they will tell you that the best infrastructure for doing anything AI is Azure...We're leading when it comes to AI" pic.twitter.com/I24SxTSYvK
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MSFT Massive spike in relative volume for Microsoft today as the breakdown below TL support intensifies...
By: TrendSpider | December 16, 2022
• $MSFT Massive spike in relative volume for Microsoft today as the breakdown below TL support intensifies...
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Microsoft Co. (MSFT) Sees Significant Growth in Short Interest
By: MarketBeat | December 16, 2022
• Microsoft Co. (NASDAQ:MSFT) saw a large increase in short interest during the month of November. As of November 30th, there was short interest totalling 40,450,000 shares, an increase of 16.9% from the November 15th total of 34,590,000 shares. Approximately 0.6% of the company's stock are sold short. Based on an average daily volume of 29,350,000 shares, the days-to-cover ratio is currently 1.4 days...
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Microsoft $4.3 Million Call • Strike: 250 • Expiration: 1/06/23
By: Cheddar Flow | December 15, 2022
• $MSFT $4.3M OTM Call (Very Unusual)
Strike: 250
Expiration: 1/06/23
*Above the Ask*
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Microsoft to buy 4% stake in London Stock Exchange
By: Investing.com | December 12, 2022
(Reuters) - Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is to take a 4% equity stake in London Stock Exchange Group (LON:LSEG) as part of a 10-year commercial deal to migrate the exchange operator's data platform into the cloud, the British company said on Monday.
It is the latest sign of deepening ties between financial services providers and a handful of big global cloud companies such as Microsoft, Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and IBM (NYSE:IBM), which have prompted regulators to scrutinise the ties more closely.
Microsoft has longstanding links with LSEG, but the exchange group's Chief Executive David Schwimmer said that about a year ago they began talks on closer ties.
"It's a long term partnership. In terms of the products we will be building together, I would expect our customers to start to see the benefits of that 18 to 24 months out and we will continue building from there," Schwimmer told Reuters.
Regulators have expressed concern about the over-reliance of financial firms on too few cloud providers, given the disruption this could cause across the sector if a provider went down.
The European Union has just approved a law introducing safeguards on cloud providers in financial services, with Britain set to follow suit.
"You should assume we do not like to surprise our regulators," Schwimmer said, when asked if LSEG has ensured that regulators were on board.
LSEG said the link with Microsoft was a partnership to reap the benefits of "consumption-based pricing", and not a traditional cloud deal.
"We will continue to maintain our multi-cloud strategy and working with other cloud providers," Schwimmer said.
The deal was not about savings by outsourcing activities to the cloud, but about meaningful incremental revenue growth as new products come on stream over time.
"This feels like a key milestone in LSEG's journey towards being information solutions-centric, even if 'meaningful' revenue growth specifics are lacking," analysts at Jefferies said.
As part of the deal, LSEG has made a contractual commitment for minimum cloud-related spend with Microsoft of $2.8 billion over the term of the partnership.
Microsoft said the basis of the partnership will be the digital transformation of LSEG's technology infrastructure and Refinitiv platforms on to the Microsoft Cloud.
"The initial focus will be on delivering interoperability between LSEG Workspace and Microsoft Teams, Excel and PowerPoint with other Microsoft applications and a new version of LSEG’s Workspace," the U.S. company said.
LSEG shares were up 4% in early trade.
LSEG bought Refinitiv for $27 billion from a Blackstone (NYSE:BX) and Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI)' consortium, which turned the exchange into the second largest financial data company after Bloomberg LP.
LSEG has made "good progress" on its programme for the delivery of its cloud-based data platform since the completion of its Refinitiv acquisition in January 2021, it said in a statement.
Microsoft will buy LSEG shares from the Blackstone/Thomson Reuters Consortium, the exchange operator said.
Thomson Reuters, which owns Reuters News, has a minority shareholding in LSEG following the Refinitiv deal.
Microsoft's purchase is expected to complete in the first quarter of 2023.
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Microsoft (MSFT) PT Set at $365.00 by Credit Suisse Group
By: My MarketBeat | December 9, 2022
• Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT - Get Rating) has been given a $365.00 price target by stock analysts at Credit Suisse Group in a research note issued on Friday, Borsen Zeitung reports. Credit Suisse Group's price objective would suggest a potential upside of 47.55% from the company's current price...
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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Clinging to the 50D.. holds 255 Resistance then the 200D
By: Options Mike | December 10, 2022
• $MSFT Clinging to the 50D.. holds 255 Resistance then the 200D.
If not 50D then the gap.
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Activision CEO Bobby Kotick just sent this to $ATVI employees $MSFT
By: StockMKTNewz | December 8, 2022
• Activision CEO Bobby Kotick just sent this to $ATVI employees $MSFT.
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JUST IN: Microsoft $MSFT,... Were all just awarded contracts with the US Department of Defense with a ceiling value of $9 Billion
By: StockMKTNewz | December 7, 2022
• JUST IN: Google $GOOGL, Amazon Web Services $AMZN, Microsoft $MSFT and Oracle $ORCL were all just awarded contracts with the US Department of Defense with a ceiling value of $9 Billion
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Microsoft Strikes 10-Year Deal With Nintendo On Call Of Duty
By: Barchart | December 7, 2022
LONDON (AP) — Microsoft agreed Wednesday to make the hit video game Call of Duty available on Nintendo for 10 years should its $69 billion purchase of game maker Activision Blizzard go through — an apparent attempt to fend off objections from rival Sony.
The blockbuster merger is facing close scrutiny from regulators in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere. Microsoft, maker of the Xbox game console, faces resistance from Sony, which makes the competing PlayStation console and has raised concerns with antitrust watchdogs about losing access to what it calls a “must-have” game title.
Phil Spencer, the head of Xbox, tweeted that Microsoft “entered into a 10-year commitment" to bring Call of Duty to Nintendo.
Microsoft President Brad Smith tweeted his thanks to Nintendo, which makes the Switch game console, saying the same offer was available for Sony.
“Any day @Sony wants to sit down and talk, we’ll be happy to hammer out a 10-year deal for PlayStation as well,” he said.
Smith said the agreement would bring Call of Duty to more gamers and more platforms, and “that’s good for competition and good for consumers.”
Sony's European press office didn't respond to a request for comment. Adding to the pressure on Sony, Microsoft also said Wednesday it has committed to keeping Call of Duty on the platform Steam, a digital marketplace for PC games, in an agreement with Steam’s operator Valve.
In an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal this week, Smith raised concerns about the possibility that the Federal Trade Commission could take Microsoft to court to stop the deal. Antitrust watchdogs in both Britain and the European Union also are investigating the transaction over concerns it would distort competition.
At the heart of the dispute is control over future releases of Activision Blizzard’s most popular games, especially Call of Duty, a first-person military shooter franchise. Activision reported last month that the latest installment, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, had earned more than $1 billion in sales since its Oct. 28 launch.
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Microsoft $100 Million Dark Pool Print
By: Cheddar Flow | December 5, 2022
• $MSFT $100M Dark Pool Print.
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$MSFT $GOOGL Millions Worth of ITM Calls
By: Cheddar Flow | December 5, 2022
• $MSFT $GOOGL Millions Worth of ITM Calls
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Microsoft A support/resistance flip at the $250 level is EXACTLY what bulls want to see here!
By: TrendSpider | December 3, 2022
• $MSFT A support/resistance flip at the $250 level is EXACTLY what bulls want to see here!
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