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Dang, still 17 boardmarks! People afraid to chase it and not wanting to pay attention to it around I-Hub I guess even with the multiple multi-year highs in the last couple weeks.
PS- man look at that nat gas chart breakout this year! Woo! Tomorrow we get the weekly EIA updates on weekly nat gas storage.
Ya when it runs this much it becomes luck. But it has been pretty fun! Still kinda hoping for results to be strong and the story to back up at elast some of this move.
I'll have to put in an order to sell some just under OM at $19.94 maybe LOL.
Thanks 3Saints! Took ALOT of patience but paying off nicely!
LOL, make it $19.96 so you get out ahead of the roadblock.
I sold some more over $13. I'll buy these back in the $11s but would not recommend anyone try and chase this. This is speculation right now IMO. Beautiful for those of us with shares to sell, but don't wnat peoeple chasing this at these levels just becasue it going up.
This is getting crazy! Just put a sell order in for my last 250 shares at $20...
Yep! I'm still holding well over 1/2 my original position with my theory not even starting to play out yet (about August-Sept being a good time to sell).
If we could somehow go crazy for a bit (IF not when necessarily) and get to $15 we'd hit the IBD list and draw in a BUNCH of eyeballs.
Of course that means absolutely nothing to the intrinsic value of the company and would make for a good exit point.
But personally I'll hang onto a bit regardless just cuz I like the company share structure, prudent mngmnt, nat gas outlook for next few years, playground they have (all those Barnett Shale wells to pick over), etc... Not a perfect investment by any means, but a very solid one from the low $4s. Just wish more little fish would have seen the value and gotten in ahead of time. It'll be interesting to see if they can report record earnings in the June report. if they do, I'm very confident the Aug reprot will also be over 20 cents EPS. Maybe substantially if nat gas prices keep it up:) And the small float may make it kinda crazy with all those things happening at once.
This run is getting pretty speculative, I'm up about triple now in a few months.
And the only news is the production from Tarrant Cty and also the other production from the GOM coast area and the other area in Texas.
Still holding my other half..Who knows where this could go..They are free, so let'em ride!
Yes! Just about to crack to new highs again;) I'll just keep selling a little bit on the rocket ride. Wooohoo.
This has been a powerpack! Unabated one at that... So has nat gas. Been nice to see my hopes on nat gas moving higher get realized and then some (over a very short period of time). My original valuation for the company was based on $8 nat gas cuz I like to be conservative on my estimates to start (at least with big bets).
We still don't have a Q report so this run is simply nat gas going up and is getting a bit extended (and the Tarrant Cty wells of course). Sold just a bit more today over $12. Still my #2 position and may even threaten to reclaim #1 status with this friggin' run LOL.
I am now a real cash whore... Ugh. But I'm up huge this year so far so I'm gonna count my blessings and keep the cash high right now;)
Kinda nice to be able to sell with no probs about liquidity:) That was part of my plan. That volume would pick up when it hit new highs, being on the AMEX. But man, wasn't expecting a rocket launch like this! I was expecting to sell in August.
I had people squawking at me to sell all of it at $7 LOL.
Another wanted to short it at $8. But they didn't fortunately. I don't like the idea shorting, even when there are seemingly lots of candidates.
PS- if we can get to $15 on earnings then this could show up on the IBD list. Probably in the top 10 IMO.
Another new 52 week high!
Anybody: any idea why nat ags is up fairly substantially AH? It is firmly over $11.70 now and seems to have been holding.
Whoa, Nat gas after hours is kickin' azz (new multi-year high I believe over $11.70 right now). Maybe someone trying to manipulate things on lighter AH timeframe ahead of futures contracts expiration this week.
http://www.nymex.com/index.aspx
May have to pull my order to sell a little more MXC LOL.
Then again, the O&G micros are indiscriminately headed higher it seems these days. Tempted to sell a little more. Maybe a few shares every $1 it goes up:) Buy 'em back if/when it gets under $10...
Woohoo, check that volume and upside! I squeaked out another new high today even wtih AYSI dropping a bit.
Kinda fun (for now LOL) seeing my 2 prize fighters I have confidence in kickin' azz. Unfortunately, they're the only 2 I have confidence in for now.. Still trying to find another but not looking as hard as I probably should. Have a good chunk of cash to add to either if they sell off much.
After seeing AYSI's #s I am actually more bullish on them short term but things fluctuate with margins on them. With MXC I am thinking we are close to fairly valued until we get specific structure on their Tarrant Cty wells. I sold a little MXC and bought some AYSI. But MXC is still without any question my #2 position still (was #1 last week).
Hopefully we get that push into the mid teens on earnings and then maybe squeak into the IBD list to draw in a lot of attention to sell a bit into. Or maybe the Aug report and hurricane season will egt us into those mid teen #s 9as logn as nat gas keeps it up).
At any rate, the structure of the company is one where I'm willing to hold a decent position long term like I am AYSI.
Ya I think we'll probably see all-time record earnings in June and Aug should alos be over 20 cents EPS if nat gas keeps it up. And hurricane season will be on our doorstep at that point.
Maybe it'll make it high up on the IBD list if it cracks over $15 on the June #s. That could bring in momentum.
Have to wait and see.
Still need to get the clarification from the Tarrant Cty wells. Hopefully we get that in the next 2 weeks or so.
Lots of little scenarios that could play out well for them. Plus they have a lot of opportunity I think going forward once the cash from the new wells royalties hits in late June/early July.
MXC will be a teenager with nat gas over $11, just not sure of the timing. Right now though AYSI is my temptation. I have a few potential thoughts on why they may spike around end of May or maybe June. But nothing certain at all on that end, just wild spec on my part:)
Can't wait to see MXC's numbers
OM, are you and I the only two with shares currently that are posting here? There have to be some lurkers out there I would venture. Nat gas is up slightly overseas... Over $11.60 now.
Too bad the homework I did on MXC in the post I'm replying to is probably gonna be somewhat useless if they have a large group of pooled wells. Although with 122 acres, I am guessing the pool will hopefully be relatively small # of wells and higher % interest so maybe it'll be a little bit useful. That's my hope, no idea though yet.
Glanced at it. Very difft in many ways. insider ownership is way less. Market cap is way more. Too many professional investor in it for me to keep up. They'd run circles around me knowing when to get in and out so I'll leave that one alone:)
Look at KTII..They have a very similar share structure to this
Alright! 17 boardmarks:) We're making it big LOL.
Interesting to see this still fly off the radar of people on I-Hub even as it hits multi-year highs. Woulda thought a low float with tight fiscal management in the nat gas sector would have drawn in the hordes when it broke out.
That's OK, it can be our own little public but small group here!
Hurricane season will maybe bring in some interest if a nasty gets into the GOM. If that happens hopefully people heed evacuation orders and do all they can to proactively get ready and out of harm's way.
2005 hurricane season for the US was a terrible bad dream that ruined so much. Myanmar is even worse, a total nightmare. People (and hopefully govts in positions of responsibilty for their people) have to realize the power and danger of these things by now I would hope.
correction my typo at the bottom in the last message should have said $8s and not $1.8s.
I suck at math AND typing. Ugh. 2 fingers. I think the CEO of AYSI is a 2 fingered typer too:) So I'm in good company...
frenchee, cool charts! Thanx... Wow that looks extended LOL! Although there may be an update in the fairly near future on the Tarrant Cty wells that may move this one way or the other (maybe).
Still think we will likely see several record quarters for these guys going forward. Plus the 2 YOY comps after the June report are cakewalks and the Aug report will be just as the meat of hurricane season is starting... If things go real well, I could see this getting into the $20s but I am more looking for the teens in the next 6-9 months and would be happy with that. Not a whole long ways from the teens already. Of ocurse the price of nat gas changes everything both to upside and down...
Ope, the wife is waking up from her nap. Thanx for the charts again! Nice to have you drop in here.
One thing I find funny is MXC is hitting multi-year highs, is in the nat gas sector bigtime with nat gas up, it is the highest returning company (% gain) to date on the VMC Value index rebalanced portfolio and none of them are posting about it! Neither is anyone else on I-Hub so personally I think there's still a chance for some upside. Or at least some good support if this sells off much.
Hi OM,
Here's a long-term view for ya...some yellow flags starting to show up with volume trending down, price at the 50% retracement level, and +DI decreasing...
LOL, no I'm trying to give jap1511 some thoughts to stew over since he seems to be regretting not getting in yet and I was the one telling him not to chase it (so may be the one responsible for him not getting in in part). I did mention to buy in the mid-high $8s when it dropped down there and he didn't bite for whatever reason. Hopefully we get another chance...
OK, maybe I am just talking to myself:)
Have a good weeknd... Happy Mother's Day weekend.
Are you over here again talking to yourself! lol
JAP1511- It is my thought (but I've been wrong many times before) that some people might be calculating earnings based on 21% ownership of the 2 wells with announced big initial flow rates. However, I htink those wells are not 21% owned and that instead the company owns part of a pool of wells with more wells but less % ownership. I ahve no idea how much ownership or how many wells and is one reason I'm saying be a bit cautious.
Difft things could happen- we could find out the acreage of pooled wells has a much lower % ownership but more wells, maybe a lot of production maybe a little production.
Without knowing specifically how much in error (whether good or bad) the PR.ownership info was/is it seems better safe than sorry.
I'm quite confident the acquisition is going to be very good but still I like clarity and the more wells the harder it will be for me to calculate exact production. Probably won't be able to.
Whereas with just 3 wells and the flow rates required to be published per Texas RRC regs (on a 2 month lag) we could just watch the production on those 3 wells and 'see' if you will what is coming as far as a ballpark figure in earnings. Just take the flow rates monthly, assume a bit more production in the front end vs the back end of the month (so earnings from these wells in the Jan-March timeframe would IMO require a slight decrease factor because of less production later in month but higher prices and more production in front end of month when nat gas prices were slightly lower in general for each of those months).
I had already done the decline rate of the one producing well and used that % decline against the initial flow rates of the 2 wells that came online. Using that decline % per month of the one producing well and applying it to the 2 big producers announced, I figured out 12 months worth of production (on the 2 new wells) using the same decline rate.
Then, as each month's wellhead prices come out I can use those $ amounts and apply it to the 2 new wells that came online but using a slight discount to account for nat gas prices higher in back end of month when prodcution is probably less (I used a 3% expense factor for that).
So we could use the hypothetical decline rate based on the one producer, use it against the new wells to get rough assumption of production, use monthly wellhead prices from EIA (with 3% expense), then calculate rough income from the 2 producers for earnings. Then using the 21% ownership and assuming a 25% interest for landowners (which means the net to MXC would be more like 16.5% or so).
Then with that # multiplied by the 16.5% to get MXC's cut we could apply expenses like 35% fed tax rate (that's what I used), 7% state production tax on nat gas, 10% Depr and Depletion expense (a # I randomly chose but is probably a bit high). Take out those expenses from the #s and I ended up with abotu 13-15 cents per share in net earnings for MXC AFTER expenses. On just the 2 wells.
BUT all that effort (for me an effort cuz I suck at math LOL) was for naught when Tammy mentioned to me they are still trying to get exact clarity on the structure of what they bought. My first reaction was 'what in the world are these guys doing paying the most $ ever for a nat gas purchase and months afterward still not even know what they bought?' and so I subtracted a couple 'points' if you will from my thoughts on valuing the company.
But I then went back and calculated about what I thought an acre of land in that area could be worth and saw they still were way on the cheap side of what that property should be worth in terms of nat gas production so stayed pretty optimistic on the idea of 'pooled' wells on the acreage and not just the 3 wells.
So even though I felt a bit frustrated over not knowing the amount of wells owned or exact %, I know they got a real good deal for the acreage especially since we're talking land that has already been drilled, some is in production, and the royalty interest is free of operating expenses.
So now my thinking is 'OK, we need to see exactly what they have first before getting back to bullish'. That said, I think based on my rough valuation of the acreage (I think it adds a good $5 mill, maybe more now with nat gas prices up, to value of the company but that is just spec on my part) that the company is still relatively cheap longer term.
So if we're talking longer term valuation my thought goes back to why risk $ right now (short term) at these levels if looking long term?
Waiting over a short period of time here for them to get their purchase figured out exactly will add a good amount of clarity IMO to then re-evaluate the comapny when that news comes out (hopefully 100% accurately this time).
So the risks are short term (if you don't own) that we find out the pooled wells could mean even more in terms of value to the company and news clarifies/solidifies that view which sends the stock price even higher, or possibly the stock continues to run becasue of its thin nature and new 52 week highs with nat gas prices still climbing.
The risks (if you own) are that we find out the pooled wells are not as productive as a group as the 2 big wells announced (although those 2 wells are part of the pool of wells so that's good) and that the % ownership is low enough to mean less net to the company overall going forward.
Of course some people may just throw out the shares when/if they find out the original PR was not completely accurate but it isn't like restating earnings so am not terribly worried about that and in fact that might create a buying opportunity.
OK, I need to finish up for the weekend before the Mrs gets up LOL. I wanted to glance over a company (nothing exciting).
I do think MXC will have a shot to report record earnings the next few Qs if nat gas stays up. By that I don't mean higher earnings sequentially necessarily. I mean I think the next 3 Qs will have a chance at being higher than any Q UP TO this point (which is about 20 cents EPS I think) so 3 qs of 20 cents+ per Q. But that depends on nat gas pricee and possible 1 time expenses cropping up.
Good luck! Hopefully we'll all get a good fat chance to load up on this one, but their is some risk it just runs away as you mentioned. Maybe nat gas will correct to give us some chance. It is up about 50% on the year! That has changed my valuation of MXC quite a bit since I first picked it up:)
PS- if AYSI gets bck down to the $1.8s I might actually try to buy some of that back (part of what I already sold).
Option, thanx for taking over as mod! And thanx for not completely flipping all the shares LOL (it is temtping with the volatility). I think with time this has a ways to go but also think that is very much predicated on nat gas prices. So far very good.
Dog gone it I need to get some clarity on those pooled wells. I think Tammy is waiting to hear back from CHK and then they'll hopefully put out a FINAL and DEFINITIVE PR about what exactly they have LOL. At any rate, based on the acreage (now 122 apparently) and the production rates of the wells, coupled with no operating expenses, I think the company got a really nice deal... That should be born out with the annual to some extent and if they ARE pooled wells, I would think they'll have a shot at doing better in the August report ( I believe some wells were not online by the end of March but not positive). With hurricane season shortly after that Augsut report (or cyclone season just getting busy), I think we could see some good momentum in this in the Aug-Sept timeframe. Should have lots of eyes on it at that point.
BUT we haven't even seen one Q report yet so I still need to get verification this is all as it seems to me.
Good weekend (and Happy Mother's Day) all longs! All three or four of us LOL...
jap1511, let's hope it can settle back in. LOL I'm still disappointed I couldn't get the full position I wanted fro mthe get-go. Oh well. Enough to be very excited for sure:)
Good luck.
Nice back to $11 I am going to be upset if it breaks out from here.
Anybody following my posts- I am NOT recommending buying MXC up here. Do your DD of course, but I still want to get clarity on their Tarrant Cty wells. They have apparently become part owners of pooled wells and not just the 3 so be careful in trying to run figures based on the 2 wells and their initial flow rates (I already did all that only to find out taht they still aren't absolutely sure of the structure of the wells they acquired as fas a how many wells and exact % interest I think).
That said, I still think this deal was a big one for the company and they will be able to do more going forward IMO with the cashflows kicked off from these pooled wells. Pooled wells will allow them a more even income stream IMO but not quite the big POP I was hoping for up front. Still like them but just wanted to mention all this since I see it running on no news.
Yes I think they are still undervalued but want that crystal clarity on the Tarrant Cty wells first with the price over $10.
All IMO only.
MXC having a good day as usual
Whoa, almost broke $10! That loser on Yhaoo claiming to short was a brainless widget. Did you read their post and why they wanted to short? LOL. They htought MXC was an oil company. They're one of the least concentrated oil producers out there.
Nat gas is where it's at and why I bet big on them;)
Good luck.
Thanx MikeS, damn... Another nuisance on I-Hub. LOL. Hopefully goes back to 'normal' with the stuff they had previously.
They just changed the iHub quote system. They had to pay for the old quote system whereas the new quote system is provided by their parent company (ADVFN). It was one of the synergies of the acquisition. Management at iHub knows it needs tweaking and plans to continue enhancing it.
Mike
Option, are you getting the same problem? Maybe they are just doing maintenance or something. It has happened before. I get a quote screen but it is different than the normal one (in a bad way). Thanx.
PS- I'll drop my orders down around $8 to see if the shares will come back down a little bit. Mr Taylor was in the office today but I called when Tammy and he were meeting. Still haven't had a chance to chat with him yet but am looking forward to it at some point...
Option, any idea what is with the funky quote screen on I-Hub last few days? I can't get delayed MMs and trades.
Here's a little bit about nat gas outlook from the EIA. I was wondering how much the huge jump in fertlzr prices would drive nat gas demand since it is not a big segment for consumption but the EIA did bring it up in part driving consumption this year (notice the big drop in LNG import #s revision from last month, that'll help keep nat gas prices up IMO):
Consumption. Total natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 1.4 percent in 2008 and by 0.5 percent in 2009 (Total U.S. Natural Gas Consumption Growth). The residential and commercial sectors are expected to lead consumption growth in 2008 because of the projected 5.4-percent increase in heating degree-days compared with 2007. In contrast, the projected 12.4-percent decline in cooling degree-days from the warm summer of 2007 is expected to leave consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector relatively unchanged. Finally, the declining real value of the U.S. dollar and some recovery in the fertilizer market are expected to contribute to slight growth in industrial sector output and natural gas consumption in both 2008 and 2009.
Production and Imports. Total U.S. marketed natural gas production is expected to increase by 4.6 percent in 2008, then decline by 1.1 percent in 2009. Despite current repairs at the Independence Hub, production from the Federal Gulf of Mexico is expected to increase by 4.2 percent in 2008. Sustained high rig counts in the lower-48 onshore region are expected to lead to an increase in onshore production of 4.9 percent in 2008.
Through the first 4 months of 2008 liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports totaled an estimated 115 Bcf, considerably lower than the import total of 283 Bcf at this time last year. The shift of LNG away from the United States this year results from higher prices available to LNG suppliers for deliveries to both the Asia-Pacific region and Europe. Although EIA still expects significant additions to world LNG productive capacity through 2009, recent delays in bringing new liquefaction projects to full operational capacity and current high demand in other parts of the world will continue to constrain LNG shipments to the United States. In 2007, LNG imports totaled 771 Bcf. The 2008 LNG import forecast is revised downward to 580 Bcf from 680 Bcf in last month’s Outlook.
Inventories. As of April 25, 2008, working natural gas in storage was 1,371 Bcf (U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage), 3 Bcf below the 5-year average (2003-2007), and 255 Bcf below the level during the corresponding week last year.
Prices. The Henry Hub spot price averaged $10.49 per Mcf in April, $0.74 per Mcf above the average March spot price. Continuing cool weather (heating degree-days were 6 percent higher than normal in April), sagging imports of LNG, lower inventories, and higher oil prices have all contributed to the recent strength in spot prices. Uncertainty over natural gas demand by the electric power sector during the summer and the possibility of hurricane-related supply disruptions later this year could impact spot prices in the coming months. On an annual basis, the Henry Hub spot price is expected to average $9.69 per Mcf in 2008 and $9.41 per Mcf in 2009, increases of $1.10 and $1.09 per Mcf, respectively, from last month’s Outlook.
LOL, got bored watching it, thinking it would be more music I was wanting to hear and not so much conspiracy theory. Now, back to a little 'Tool' (The Pot).
PS- nat gas report kinda ho-hum pretty much in line.
LOL the computer I am on won't let it play. I'll have to wait 'til I get home... So it'll be a nice surprise. I'll just save it for morning wake-up;)...
Here is some music to calm you down..
Uh-oh, just got done reading these words of wisdom (stock peeker, in his signature address):
"Avoid panic selling AND avoid overconfident buying." Paul Litman
I'll have to point to this if things don't work out here!
I've been one cocky pinhead LOL. Too much testsoterone music lately;) Feel like rambling thru a moshpit now (have 'bodies' on the headphones by Drowning Pool AND IT IS CRANKED UP! YEAH!!! SO AM I LOL)...
Rhino, thanx for the news tidbit. Ya a lot of LNG from Trinidad/Tobago is headed to Europe where prices are hgiher, even after the increasedc cost from further transport of LNG. As long as LNG imports stay low, then I think we will continue to see what the article mentiones. Although drillers are going wild in palces like the Barnett Shale area trying to get as much brought online as they can since transport infrastructure is mostly in place in that region already.
I have the highest cash balance I've had in some time and will be looking to add to MXC on weakness. I upped my bid for 500 shares to $8.73 with nat gas up today. If I get it fine, if not I'll wiat for tomorrow to see what weekly storage #s are.
Good luck...
CNBC
Winter Natural Gas Crunch Possible?
Wednesday May 7, 11:19 am ET
U.S. natural gas inventories could be at seriously low levels at the start of winter this year, if current rates of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports remain at record lows, a Goldman Sachs report said Wednesday.
ADVERTISEMENT
The year is already two months into the summer re-fill season when producers traditionally stock up on cheap gas volumes to sell on more profitably in winter, but so far storage facilities have gone unused as prices remain high.
More so, ongoing weakness in US natural gas prices compared with prices in the rest of the world is providing no incentive for LNG cargoes to be directed to the US, leaving imports at record-low levels.
"The US still needs to increase LNG imports and incentivize some fuel switching away from natural gas towards residual fuel oil to bring nat gas inventories to full levels by end of October," the report said.
To achieve higher imports the bank says Nymex natural gas futures futures, currently trading at 28-month highs of more than $11.10 per million British thermal units, will need to rise further to close the gap with international gas prices and the rest of the oil complex in coming months.
If prices fail to rise, it will be hard for U.S. natural gas inventories to reach full levels by the end of the summer, the report said. And U.S. supply could come under pressure if this winter is as severe as 2007, the coldest in 7 years.
Goldman raised its US domestic production outlook for the year by 300 million cubic feet per day, but adds any increase will be offset by an increase in expected U.S. pipeline exports, keeping the supply balance tight.
PURE MUSCLE YEAAAAAHHHHH!!! Heh heh, each time I see the nat gas prices going up I get more bullish.... Sssshhhhhhhh. Still trying to snag a few a bit above $8.5. This could really pop if someone does the homework I've been doing IMO... Easy teenager this year IF nat gas stays over $11. I am still hoping for a quick correction here but if nat gas keeps creeping up I think it'll be kiss it goodbye time. I have enough to be happy though;)
Looks like I have my own little private party room to practice my soliloquy LOL.
Gonna have to twiddle my thumbs and bite the nails until June annual... Actually, there should be some kind of PR before too long clarifying these Tarrant Cty wells. But the stuff I'm waiting for with weight isn't until the annual...
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WELCOME TO MEXCO ENERGY CORPORATION ONLINE
Mexco Energy Corporation is an independent, publicly owned oil and gas company engaged in acquiring and developing oil and gas properties and the exploration for and production of oil and gas. Mexco Energy Corporation, a Colorado corporation founded in 1972, currently conducts all of its drilling, exploration and production activities in the United States. All of its oil and gas assets are located in the United States and all of its revenues are derived from sales to customers within the United States, primarily in the Permian Basin of West Texas.
Mexco focuses primarily on the exploration for and development primarily of natural gas reserves and secondarily oil reserves.
In addition to exploration and development, Mexco acquires interests in producing and non-producing oil and gas leases from landowners and leaseholders in areas considered favorable for oil and gas exploration, development and production.
Mexco also engages in the business of acquiring proved reserves and continually searches for opportunities to acquire proved oil and gas properties, including royalties and mineral interests with development potential.
Mexco common stock is listed and trades on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol MXC.
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE | ||
Directors of Mexco Energy Corporation Thomas Graham, Jr. - Chairman of the Board of Directors | Officers of Mexco Energy Corporation Nicholas C. Taylor - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director |
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