Mesa Air Group Inc (MESA)

[eastunder]

Not bad! Thank you.

[OldAIMGuy]

With my method I can run out of cash (and do) in a buy cycle but this method can't run out of shares. That's nice for stocks on a very long upward trend.

Now that MESA seems to have "wheels up" I'm looking forward to jettisoning some shares periodically to keep our flight level.


OAG Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

How's this?



The software is StockMarketEye. It's no longer a freebie but has been quite useful for me over the last 5 to 10 years. It has the usual "technical" indicators and some you can customize for durations such as your request for 20days and so forth.

It looks like the 50 day crossing the 20 and 5 was a pretty strong signal. (Hindsight!) Most of my selling is done above the 130 day (or 26 week) eMA, but by coincidence, not plan. The buy side of my efforts is almost always below that same threshold (again, by coincidence).

I remember when having a 15 Minute Delayed ticker signal was quite radical (back in the late '80s). I think the service was called "MarketWatch" or something similar. It came in over cable TV, so I had cable brought into my office. I remember on October 19, 1987 at one point during the day I was on the phone with my brother who was with Paine Webber at the time. He had what was supposed to be "real time" vs my 15 Minute Delayed signal. The difference in the Dow 30 when we spoke was over 200 points! Remember that the Dow 30 was only at 2200 at the start of the day! Crazy times. Quotes were so far behind, Paine Webber quit taking Limit Orders and would only accept Market Orders. Even then they couldn't give a Quote that was meaningful.

A MAALOX Moment if there ever was one!!

OAG Tom

[eastunder]

I do love your 10% inventory plan.

I like how that works. Its smart.

[OldAIMGuy]

Target 3.76

That will be for another 10% of inventory.

It should be workable.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[eastunder]

HA!

My sandbox needs more sand. It's only half full. Well 2/3rds of the way. But when I add sand, I would like to buy it on sale. I hate paying full price for those bags. ;)

Are you able to do a chart with several SMA's at once? The 200,50,20 and 5?

[OldAIMGuy]

My Equity Warehouse has plenty of MESA inventory so we won't be turning any buyers away. We just have to dicker to come to an acceptable price.

No line is forming yet but the Sales Dept is ready.

OAG Tom

[eastunder]

And they are always right on! ;)

Target 3.76

I like your chart, Tom!

[OldAIMGuy]

Here's expert opinion from some English Investment Advisors:

Nice Williams%R and improving Accumulation/Distribution................


OAG

[eastunder]

Wow! That's really all one can say when you look at this.

Hello January! :)

[OldAIMGuy]

MESA had a little rest and reset today. Some harsh selling early on but now it seems to have stabilized.

It's still holding above its 26 Week Moving Average. In the mean time the rest of the market took a happy pill this AM.

Best wishes,
OAG

[royaltyfree]

A five contract and loan of $25 milly and $15 milly forgivable if they meet certain terms. What’s not to like here!

[eastunder]

MESA just popped above the 200day. That's a surprise!

200 day currently at 2.34 and pps currently at 2.42

[OldAIMGuy]

That trade was about the only "good" one so far! Here's the entire history since I bought my ticket on MESA:



I now own 315% more shares than when I started this back in August, 2021. I guess I couldn't read the Fine Print very well! I didn't realize I had to load my own luggage and that no In-Flight Service was being offered!

The negative cash reserve shown is just me borrowing from Peter to pay Paul during the decline. MESA's in my retirement account, so other investment's cash was used to continue buying. This graph might look better by tomorrow's close.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[eastunder]

That's a nice trade, Tom!

Kudos!

[OldAIMGuy]

My MESA position has gained +45% since last Friday's close. That's acceptable to me for now....

At the current moment the price/share needs to continue rising before I'll liberate any of the accumulated inventory. The current price is up 61% from my last purchase. I added 20% more shares at that time at $1.38/sh.

I'm considering taking some shares off the table to start rebuilding a purchasing reserve in case MESA doesn't gain any more altitude for a while. MESA's in my retirement account, so cap gains are a null subject.

Best wishes,
OAG

[OldAIMGuy]

A "Two-fer" in just 5 Days!

[eastunder]

Amazing!

[OldAIMGuy]

MESA back to being "Two Buck Chuck!"

[OldAIMGuy]

On this final day of 2022:



Nice volume as the day nears a close.

OAG

[OldAIMGuy]

MESA has a nice uptick going this AM.
Best wishes,
OAG

[eastunder]

United Airlines Agreements:

On December 27, 2022, we finalized an amendment and restatement of our capacity purchase agreement with United Airlines. Under the agreement, Mesa will add up to 38 CRJ-900 aircraft, dependent on the number E-175s Mesa is operating. Mesa will begin flying CRJ-900s on behalf of United in March of 2023 and utilize all of the crew and maintenance locations currently operated for American Airlines in Phoenix, Dallas, El Paso, and Louisville, as well as open a CRJ-900 crew base in Houston and a pilot base in Denver. As part of the final agreement, United will also pay Mesa increased block-hour rates to cover the incremental pilot wage increases instituted by Mesa in September 2022, which will remain in effect through September 2025. United will receive a 10% equity position in Mesa and a seat on the Mesa Board of Directors.

Additionally, on December 27, 2022, we finalized an agreement with United for a $41.2 million liquidity facility, including the refinancing of $15.7 million outstanding under our CIT revolving credit facility maturing December 31, 2022, and an additional $25.5 million term loan, of which $15.0 million is forgivable if Mesa achieves certain aircraft utilization thresholds. The collateral for the loan is a combination of aircraft parts and a pledge of our equity investment in Archer Aviation, Inc. and Heart Aerospace Incorporated.

United also agreed to purchase 30 GE-CF34-8 spare engines from Mesa for $80 million, which is expected to provide over $50 million of net cash proceeds and close in Q1 CY2023.

[eastunder]

Mesa Air Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Full-Year 2022 Results
4:00 PM ET, 12/29/2022 - GlobeNewswire
PHOENIX, Dec. 29, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Mesa Air Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: MESA) today reported fourth quarter and fiscal full-year 2022 financial and operating results.

Fiscal Fourth Quarter Update:

Total operating revenues of $125.6 million
Pre-tax loss of $148.6 million, net loss of $115.6 million or $(3.18) per diluted share
Adjusted net loss1 of $13.5 million or $(0.37) per diluted share
Adjusted net loss excludes a $132.3 million non-cash (pre-tax) impairment loss related to the CRJ fleet
New industry-leading pilot pay agreement effective September 15th
Agreed to sell 18 CRJ-550s to United Airlines, 10 of which closed during the quarter
Launched the Mesa Pilot Development (“MPD”) Program
Negotiated a new two-year flight attendant agreement
Subsequent to quarter end:
Initiated and concluded wind-down agreement with American Airlines
Reached agreements with United Airlines for (i) capacity purchase agreement expansion for CRJ-900 flying and rate increase, (ii) a loan agreement, and (iii) an engine purchase agreement
Renegotiated certain aircraft debt and lease obligations
Agreed to sell 11 CRJ-900s, expected to close in Q1 CY2023
Fiscal Full-Year 2022 Update:

Total operating revenues of $531.0 million
Pre-tax loss of $234.7 million, net loss of $182.7 million or $(5.06) per diluted share
Adjusted net loss1 of $40.2 million or $(1.12) per diluted share
Adjusted net loss excludes a $171.8 million non-cash (pre-tax) impairment loss related to the CRJ fleet
Jonathan Ornstein, Chairman and CEO, said, “Building on our relationship with United Airlines that began in 1992, we are delighted to announce our new and expanded agreements with United, allowing us to expand United’s reach into cities that have seen reductions or loss of flight service created by the industry-wide pilot shortage. After the transition, Mesa will be the only exclusive regional carrier for United operating large regional jets. We believe our strong relationship with United will provide significant opportunities for growth in the future. In particular, we believe Mesa’s participation in the Aviate program, combined with United’s industry-leading growth plan, will provide the most reliable, fastest path for aviators to transition to a major commercial carrier. Combined with the significant liquidity United is providing, this agreement represents a transformational step for our business as we aim to resolve the impacts of the industry-wide pilot shortage that we faced in fiscal 2022. With our pilot pipeline now filled thanks to our new pay scale and enhanced opportunities with United through Aviate, Mesa is in a superior position to meet the significant demand for regional flying.”

Fiscal Fourth Quarter Details:

Total operating revenues in Q4 2022 were $125.6 million, a decrease of $5.1 million (3.9%) from $130.8 million for Q4 2021. Contract revenue decreased $5.3 million, or 4.6%. These decreases were driven by lower block hours, offset by the expiration of temporary rate reductions related to the PSP program. Mesa’s Q4 2022 results include, per GAAP, the deferral of $1.3 million, versus the recognition of $1.3 million of previously deferred revenue in Q4 2021. The remaining deferred revenue balance of $24.1 million will be recognized as flights are completed over the remaining terms of the contracts.

Mesa’s Adjusted EBITDA1 for Q4 2022 was $13.8 million, compared to $25.8 million in Q4 2021, and Adjusted EBITDAR1 was $22.4 million for Q4 2022, compared to $35.5 million in Q4 2021.

Mesa’s Q4 2022 results reflect a net loss of $115.6 million, or $(3.18) per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $7.5 million, or $(0.21) per diluted share for Q4 2021. Mesa’s Q4 2022 adjusted net loss1 was $13.5 million, or $(0.37) per diluted share, versus an adjusted net loss1 of $2.1 million, or $(0.06) per diluted share, in Q4 2021. The year over year decrease in adjusted net income of $11.4 million was primarily due to lower block hours, the net impact of the PSP program, and a decrease in maintenance expense.

For Q4 2022, 48% of the Company’s total revenue was derived from our contracts with United, 45% from American, 2% from DHL, and 5% from leases of aircraft to a third party.

1 See Reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures

Fiscal Full-Year 2022 Details:

For fiscal year 2022, total operating revenues were $531.0 million, an increase of $27.4 million (5.4%) from $503.6 million for fiscal year 2021. Contract revenue increased $44.0 million, or 10.1%. This was primarily due to the return to normal rates from our partners, which were temporarily reduced last year related to the PSP program, and recognition of higher deferred revenue, partially offset by a reduction in block hours and partner utilization penalties. Mesa’s fiscal year 2022 results include, per GAAP, the recognition of $10.4 million of previously deferred revenue, versus the deferral of $10.7 million of revenue in fiscal 2021.

Mesa’s Adjusted EBITDA1 for fiscal year 2022 was $66.6 million, compared to $150.0 million in fiscal year 2021, and Adjusted EBITDAR1 was $103.6 million for fiscal year 2022, compared to $189.3 million in fiscal year 2021.

Mesa’s fiscal year 2022 results reflect a net loss of $182.7 million, or $(5.06) per diluted share, compared to net income of $16.6 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, for fiscal year 2021. Mesa’s fiscal year 2022 adjusted net loss1 was $40.2 million, or $(1.12) per diluted share, versus adjusted net income of $24.6 million, or $0.64 per diluted share, in fiscal year 2021. The year over year decrease in adjusted net income of $64.8 million was primarily due to lower block hours, the net impact of the PSP program, change in deferred revenue, and higher pilot training expense.

American Airlines Agreement:

On December 19, 2022, we announced (link) a final agreement with American Airlines to wind-down our contract by April 3, 2023. The wind-down with American Airlines was primarily the result of ongoing losses within the American operation as a result of higher pilot wages, which American would not agree to compensate Mesa for, and utilization penalties.

United Airlines Agreements:

On December 27, 2022, we finalized an amendment and restatement of our capacity purchase agreement with United Airlines. Under the agreement, Mesa will add up to 38 CRJ-900 aircraft, dependent on the number E-175s Mesa is operating. Mesa will begin flying CRJ-900s on behalf of United in March of 2023 and utilize all of the crew and maintenance locations currently operated for American Airlines in Phoenix, Dallas, El Paso, and Louisville, as well as open a CRJ-900 crew base in Houston and a pilot base in Denver. As part of the final agreement, United will also pay Mesa increased block-hour rates to cover the incremental pilot wage increases instituted by Mesa in September 2022, which will remain in effect through September 2025. United will receive a 10% equity position in Mesa and a seat on the Mesa Board of Directors.

Additionally, on December 27, 2022, we finalized an agreement with United for a $41.2 million liquidity facility, including the refinancing of $15.7 million outstanding under our CIT revolving credit facility maturing December 31, 2022, and an additional $25.5 million term loan, of which $15.0 million is forgivable if Mesa achieves certain aircraft utilization thresholds. The collateral for the loan is a combination of aircraft parts and a pledge of our equity investment in Archer Aviation, Inc. and Heart Aerospace Incorporated.

United also agreed to purchase 30 GE-CF34-8 spare engines from Mesa for $80 million, which is expected to provide over $50 million of net cash proceeds and close in Q1 CY2023.

Aircraft, Debt, and Lease Activities:

On December 15, 2022, Mesa entered into an agreement with Export Development Canada (“EDC”) to, subject to certain conditions, reduce debt service on seven CRJ-900 aircraft for the period of January 2023 through December 2024, providing approximately $14 million of incremental liquidity during this period. These debt service reductions will be repaid at maturity in December 2027. Additionally, the junior noteholder, MHIRJ, agreed to forgive 50% of its outstanding note balance if the notes are fully repaid prior to December 31, 2023.

On December 16, 2022, Mesa entered into an agreement with RASPRO Trust 2005 (“RASPRO”), which reduces the effective purchase price at or prior to lease termination in March 2024 on 15 CRJ-900s by approximately $25 million.

On December 23, 2022, Mesa entered into an agreement with US Treasury, enabling Mesa to sell certain aircraft and engines, which will provide approximately $24 million of incremental liquidity in Q1 CY2023. These sales include 8 CRJ-550s sold to United, which we expect to close in January 2023, 11 CRJ-900s agreed to be sold to a third party by March 31, 2023, and 6 spare GE CF34 engines. These sales are expected to reduce Mesa’s US Treasury debt by approximately $65 million and reduce annual interest expense by approximately $4.5 million at current rates.

Pilot Initiatives:

The increase in pilot pay implemented during the quarter has significantly reduced attrition and increased our pilot applicant pool. We currently have approximately 400 pilots in our training pipeline.

Liquidity and Capital Resources:

Mesa ended the quarter at $57.7 million in unrestricted cash and equivalents. As of September 30, 2022, the Company had $599.7 million in total debt secured primarily with aircraft and engines.

Conference Call Details:

Mesa Air Group will host a conference call with analysts on December 29th at 4:30 pm EST. The conference call number is 888-469-2054 (Passcode: Phoenix (7463649)). The conference call can also be accessed live via the web by visiting https://investor.mesa-air.com.

A recorded version will be available on Mesa's website approximately two hours after the call for approximately 14 days.

About Mesa Air Group, Inc.

Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, Mesa Air Group, Inc. is the holding company of Mesa Airlines, a regional air carrier providing scheduled passenger service to 107 cities in 39 states, the District of Columbia, the Bahamas, and Mexico as well as cargo services out of Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport. As of September 30, 2022, Mesa operated or leased a fleet of 158 aircraft with approximately 306 daily departures and 2,500 employees. Mesa operates all of its flights as either American Eagle, United Express, or DHL Express flights pursuant to the terms of capacity purchase agreements entered into with American Airlines, Inc., United Airlines, Inc., and flight service agreement with DHL.

[eastunder]

Mesa Air Group Announces Updated Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Release and Conference Call Date

Mesa Air Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: MESA) will release its 2022 fourth quarter and fiscal year end earnings after the market closes on Thursday, December 29th. The company will also host a conference call to discuss the results on December 29th at 4:30 pm Eastern Time.

The call can be accessed by dialing 888-469-2054 and entering the passcode: PHOENIX (7463649).

There will also be a listen-only webcast on Mesa’s website (found here). A recorded version will be available on Mesa’s website approximately two hours after the call (http://investor.mesa-air.com).

[eastunder]

Earnings would be no later than Dec 29th and possibly before

No news on UAL finalization

Mesa Air Group Announces Intent to File Form 12b-25 and Delay Its Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Release and Conference Call
7:00 AM ET, 12/12/2022 - GlobeNewswire
PHOENIX, Dec. 12, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Mesa Air Group (NASDAQ: MESA) today announced that it will file a Form 12b-25, Notification of Late Filing, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission with regard to its annual report on Form 10-K (the “2022 10-K”) for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2022. Form 12b-25 will allow the Company an additional fifteen calendar days to file the 2022 10-K, which is due on December 14, 2022.

In accordance with today's announcement, the Company is canceling its previously announced earnings release and call scheduled for after market close on December 12. The Company expects to file the 2022 10-K as soon as practicable and no later than the December 29, 2022 deadline in compliance with Rule 12b-25. As soon as the filing date is confirmed, the Company will announce the updated timing for the release of its 2022 fourth quarter and full year financial results and conference call.

[eastunder]

On December 19, 2022, Mesa Air Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its plans for a significant restructuring of its operations with American Airlines, Inc. (“American”) and United Airlines, Inc. (“United”) and certain other measures to improve the Company’s liquidity. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.

http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20221220/ASBZL22CZW22A99Z2V2S2ZZ2N3GMZY22ZF42/

The information set forth in this Item 7.01 and the attached Exhibit 99.1 is deemed “furnished” and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation by reference language in such filing.





Item 8.01. Other Events.



On December 19, 2022, the Company announced its plans for a significant restructuring of its operations with American and United. The Company reported that as a result of ongoing unprofitable operations with American, driven primarily by higher pilot wages and block hour utilization penalties driven by the ongoing industry wide pilot shortage, the Company initiated and has finalized a consensual wind down of its American operations. The Company is also finalizing a new five-year agreement with United that would place the associated aircraft into United Express operations and compensate the Company for the higher costs associated with regional jet flying. The new agreement would cover all of the Company’s existing flying at American and could increase to 38 CRJ-900 aircraft, dependent upon the number of E-175s that the Company is operating.



Operations with American will cease on April 3, 2023. The expected agreement with United anticipates the Company would begin to place aircraft with United in March 2023 and continue to utilize all of its crew and maintenance locations currently operated for American in Phoenix, Dallas, El Paso, and Louisville through the transition and beyond. The agreement also provides for the Company to open a CRJ-900 crew base in Houston and a new pilot base in Denver, with the potential for other incremental crew bases.



The Company also reported in its press release that to further enhance liquidity, it is finalizing the sale of its remaining eight CRJ-550s to United and has reached an agreement to sell 11 surplus CRJ-900 aircraft to a third party. Once completed, the proceeds of these two transactions will significantly reduce the Company’s debt and improve its liquidity. Further, the Company is pursuing other avenues to increase liquidity through the sale of additional surplus aircraft, spare parts, and spare engines. Additionally, the Company recently negotiated improved terms and conditions with RASPRO, a Canadian special purpose finance company, on its leases for 15 CRJ-900 aircraft, and is finalizing an agreement with EDC, the Economic Development Corporation of Canada, and MHI RJ Aviation on debt associated with seven NextGen CRJ-900 aircraft.



The new agreement with United will be set forth in an amendment and restatement of the existing Second Amended and Restated Capacity Purchase Agreement, dated as of November 4, 2020 (as theretofore amended), between the parties, and the terms of the wind down of the Company’s operations with American will be set forth in an amendment to the Amended and Restated Capacity Purchase Agreement, dated as of November 19, 2020 and made effective as of January 1, 2021 (as theretofore amended), between the Company and American.

[OldAIMGuy]

Mesa and American sever relations. United to pick up some connections.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/17/american-airlines-is-dropping-regional-carrier-mesa-citing-financial-and-operational-problems.html

OAG Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Mesa and American sever relations. United to pick up some connections.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/17/american-airlines-is-dropping-regional-carrier-mesa-citing-financial-and-operational-problems.html

OAG Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

MESA put in a new 52 week Low at $1.15 this AM. It's now back to $1.33.....

OAG Tom

[eastunder]

I agree. I always hate to see a delay notice.

It scares people. (Not me, btw)

[OldAIMGuy]

This news will probably add to the current volatility we've seen.

Watch and wait!

OAG

[eastunder]

Mesa Air Group Announces Intent to File Form 12b-25 and Delay Its Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Mon, December 12, 2022 at 5:00 AM·

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mesa-air-group-announces-intent-120000422.html

PHOENIX, Dec. 12, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Mesa Air Group (NASDAQ: MESA) today announced that it will file a Form 12b-25, Notification of Late Filing, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission with regard to its annual report on Form 10-K (the “2022 10-K”) for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2022. Form 12b-25 will allow the Company an additional fifteen calendar days to file the 2022 10-K, which is due on December 14, 2022.

In accordance with today's announcement, the Company is canceling its previously announced earnings release and call scheduled for after market close on December 12. The Company expects to file the 2022 10-K as soon as practicable and no later than the December 29, 2022 deadline in compliance with Rule 12b-25. As soon as the filing date is confirmed, the Company will announce the updated timing for the release of its 2022 fourth quarter and full year financial results and conference call.

About Mesa Air Group, Inc.

Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, Mesa Air Group, Inc. is the holding company of Mesa Airlines, a regional air carrier providing scheduled passenger service to 107 cities in 39 states, the District of Columbia, the Bahamas, and Mexico as well as cargo services out of Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport. As of September 30, 2022, Mesa operated or leased a fleet of 158 aircraft with approximately 306 daily departures and 2,500 employees. Mesa operates all of its flights as either American Eagle, United Express, or DHL Express flights pursuant to the terms of capacity purchase agreements entered into with American Airlines, Inc., United Airlines, Inc., and flight service agreement with DHL.

Contact:
Mesa Air Group, Inc.
Media
[e-mail]

Investor Relations
Doug Cooper
[e-mail]

[OldAIMGuy]

Maybe MESA's benefitting from some short covering and people finishing up on their tax selling for 2022.

[eastunder]

I would like to see a few years. ;)

[OldAIMGuy]

I'd like to see a few weeks of this sort of price rise! Let's hope it gets airborn!

Best wishes,
OAG

[eastunder]

Earnings 12/12 After market closes

Mesa Air Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: MESA) will release its 2022 fourth quarter and fiscal year end earnings after the market closes on Monday, December 12th. The company will also host a conference call to discuss the results on December 12th at 4:30 pm Eastern Time.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mesa-air-group-announces-fourth-120000485.html

The call can be accessed by dialing 888-469-2054 and entering the passcode: PHOENIX (7463649).

There will also be a listen-only webcast on Mesa’s website (found here). A recorded version will be available on Mesa’s website approximately two hours after the call (http://investor.mesa-air.com).

About Mesa Air Group, Inc.

Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, Mesa Air Group, Inc. is the holding company of Mesa Airlines, a regional air carrier providing scheduled passenger service to 107 cities in 39 states, the District of Columbia, the Bahamas, and Mexico as well as cargo services out of Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport. As of September 30, 2022, Mesa operated or leased a fleet of 158 aircraft with approximately 306 daily departures and 2,500 employees. Mesa operates all of its flights as either American Eagle, United Express, or DHL Express flights pursuant to the terms of capacity purchase agreements entered into with American Airlines, Inc., United Airlines, Inc., and flight service agreement with DHL.

Investor Relations
Doug Cooper
[e-mail]

Media
Roseanne Kennerley
[e-mail]

[eastunder]

Mesa

Current pps @ 1.38

Today's Change
$0.11(+8.66%)

Today's Volume
354K (Above Avg. Volume)

[OldAIMGuy]

Hi J, Re: MESA and its current fundamentals.....

While it's not making money it still has value. It's Price/Book Value is just around $0.10 right now which makes it a really cheap acquisition if someone were to step up.

I've been averaging downward for a long time.

Best wishes,
OAG

[jasmin8192]

MESA will rise again... a perfect buying opportunity.

[eastunder]

Mesa Airlines Offers Accelerated Path to 1,500 Hours
Mesa Air Group, Inc.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mesa-airlines-offers-accelerated-path-110000780.html

Thu, September 22, 2022 at 5:00 AM·6 min rea


Airline Orders up to 104 Pipistrel Aircraft to Build ‘Mesa Pilot Development’ to Combat Pilot Shortage

PHOENIX, Sept. 22, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Mesa Airlines announced today that it has purchased 29 state-of- the-art Pipistrel Alpha Trainer 2 aircraft, with the option to buy an additional 75 over the next year. The new fleet will be the backbone of the Mesa Pilot Development Program (MPD), a major initiative to close the pilot shortage gap that has been affecting the industry over the last several years. As part of the program, pilots will be provided with the opportunity to accumulate up to 1,500 flight hours required to fly a commercial aircraft at Mesa Airlines.

The company is investing in the new program to alleviate the pilot shortage while giving new pilots a direct route to a long-term career. Jonathan Ornstein, Chairman and CEO of Mesa said, “The pilot shortage could become a permanent feature of the airline industry if we don’t get more aviators into the system,” said Ornstein. “It is basic math. If there aren’t enough trained pilots, customers suffer from loss of service and high-ticket prices.” The aircraft will go into operation in Inverness, Florida starting in October 2022, with expansion to Arizona over the next year. At full strength, the fleet will have capacity for up to 2,000 daily hours of flying time and is expected to accommodate more than 1,000 pilots per year.

Ornstein continued, “We believe there is no faster way for a new aviator to enter commercial aviation and ultimately be employed at a major airline.”

In April of 2022, Textron eAviation acquired Pipistrel Aircraft, an award-winning pioneer and global leader in training, utility, and recreational aircraft. Pipistrel was also the first manufacturer to certify a fully electric aircraft. There are more than 2,700 Pipistrel aircraft operating in the US and other countries throughout the world.

Qualified pilots who join the program will be offered up to 40 hours of flight time each week. In addition MPD pilots will begin building company longevity, receive flight benefits, and priority status for employment as a First Officer at Mesa Airlines. Flight costs of $25 per hour, per pilot, will be fully financed by Mesa with zero interest, providing no upfront out-of-pocket expense for flight time while the candidate is accruing the required hours to earn their Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) certificate. As part of their commitment, flight costs will be repaid over three years during the term of employment at Mesa Airlines. Mesa first year pay rate of $100/hour is currently the highest in the regional industry. In addition, all Mesa pilots can join United’s Aviate program which offers a direct flow to United Airlines.

“Our program will be the most cost effective and one of the fastest routes to a long-term career as a professional pilot,” said John Hornibrook, SVP Flight Operations. "We want to make it as easy as possible for a whole new field of candidates to join Mesa, including and especially people who might not have traditionally considered aviation."

The 1,500-hour federal mandate has made it particularly difficult for minority and other disadvantaged communities to become commercial pilots due to the high costs and training time needed. This program helps mitigate this significant barrier to entry.

According to federal statistics, the airline and commercial industry needs approximately 14,500 new pilots annually; however, average annual production of new pilots only meets approximately 44 percent of the need. The US produces an average of 6,335 newly certified pilots each year that are eligible for hire by the airlines. This leaves a gap of 8,165 jobs unfilled across the aviation industry. This is despite many airlines dramatically raising pilot pay. The shortage has forced airlines to reduce routes to many destinations and increase ticket prices, adding to overall inflation.

“In some cases, routes that get cut as a result of the pilot shortage are the only commercial air services to those communities,” said Ornstein. “Without action now, the U.S. air travel system may be snarled for the next decade. The stakes are high for both passengers and the U.S. economy.”

Fewer pilots coming out of the training pipeline is largely influenced by the 2013 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regulation that increased the number of flight hours prospective pilots need for an ATP certificate from 250 to 1,500. After graduating from flight school, newly licensed pilots may have to pay up to $250,000 to accumulate enough flight hours to qualify to fly for a commercial carrier—and the process often takes two to three years.

“Mesa’s Pilot Development program is an example of the private sector working to solve the challenges created by new regulations. No other country in the world has adopted the 1,500- hour rule. This creates a situation where many foreign licensed pilots can fly over this country and into some of the world’s busiest airports even though they would not be considered experienced enough to fly a commercial aircraft by the FAA," said Jonathan Ornstein.

The Alpha Trainer 2 is a two seat, high wing, modern carbon fiber aircraft designed to be the ultimate training and time building aircraft. The design is configured by Right Rudder Aviation and built by Pipistrel Aircraft, a new addition to the Textron eAviation portfolio. Since 1989, Pipistrel has produced innovative aircraft that are in use by the US and foreign militaries, and leading flight training providers worldwide, with more than 2,700 in operation. The FAA approved aircraft provide a modern, comfortable cockpit with computerized touch screen instrumentation, and digital autopilot--improving safety through technology. The Kevlar reinforced cabin and full airframe ballistic parachute contribute to the focus on safety. The purchase of the aircraft is from the exclusive US distributer of Pipistrel Aircraft, Right Rudder Aviation.

Pilots interested in the program can learn more online at https://www.mesa-air.com/mesa-pilot-development.

About Mesa Air Group, Inc.
Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, Mesa Air Group, Inc. is the holding company of Mesa Airlines, a regional air carrier providing scheduled passenger service to 121 cities in 41 states, the District of Columbia, the Bahamas, and Mexico as well as cargo services out of Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport. As of June 30, 2022, Mesa operated a fleet of 168 aircraft with approximately 360 daily departures and 2,600 employees. Mesa operates all its flights as either American Eagle, United Express, or DHL Express flights pursuant to the terms of capacity purchase agreements entered into with American Airlines, Inc., United Airlines, Inc., and flight service agreement with DHL.

Contact:
Gus Gettas
Mesa Airlines
517-404-3660
[e-mail]

Torque Zubeck
Mesa Airlines
602-685-4005

[OldAIMGuy]

MESA is close to re-crossing the $3/sh mark.

It's going to take quite a bit more to get to the first "distribution" goal of $4.97/sh.

However, jets take off at maximum speed. First they taxi, then lift off and gain altitude and finally reach maximum cruising speed.

Best wishes,
OAG

[OldAIMGuy]

MESA reports another quarterly loss, but slightly better than expected........

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mesa-air-mesa-reports-q2-212509403.html

OAG Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

Short interest on MESA is currently about 4% of outstanding shares. The price/share is well under its current Book Value ($13.20) but earnings were 'red' during the last two quarters. With Covid waning will we see this airline stock start to spread its wings? Fuel costs are still an outstanding factor on their recovery to profits.

Best wishes,
OAG

[OldAIMGuy]

Two sells followed by five consecutive buys. I guess I was a bit too early on MESA last August.



The holding now has 67% more shares than when I started. It's going to take a while to see how this works out. High energy prices and poor bookings have pushed this airline's earnings into the Red the last two quarters. A return to profitability is going to be harder now.

On a more positive note, it appears airline travel is starting to turn upward again.
Airlines raise revenue outlook as travel demand jumps, fuel costs on the rise (cnbc.com)

Best regards,
OAG Tom

[OldAIMGuy]

I've only read a little about MESA's newer investments. Here's a quick article on one:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/mesa-air-s-sea-gliders-are-poised-to-make-a-splash-in-east-coast-travel/ar-AATLNDF?ocid=entnewsntp

OAG

[OldAIMGuy]

Well, it's only been 34 years since I adopted this method of investment management so, I'm starting to get pretty good at it.

MESA will be okay once the storm clouds blow over. In the mean time please remain seated with your safety belt fastened as some turbulence is expected!

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

[eastunder]

Wow! You have it going on there!

Kudos!

[OldAIMGuy]

My sell orders tend to coincide when the W%R is above -20 and the stock shows some accumulation. my buys and sells are small incremental trades around the core holding. They are usually around 10% of shares. Also, by coincidence, sell trades usually are above the 26 Week Moving Average price and buys below it.



I build inventory when prices are down and build cash when prices rise.

Good trading,
OAG Tom

[eastunder]

Thats really interesting. Thank you!

[OldAIMGuy]

Except for that huge buy last October, Accumulation/Distribution has been pretty flat. It has been ticking upward since the start of Feb, but not much.



My buys tend to coincide with W%R below -80 and when the shares are in "distribution" mode. For now, MESA's been stuck at the W%R -80 or more since the beginning of December. There's about 2.2% short interest currently on the stock. Price/Book value is under 0.40 right now. BETA is huge at 2.76.

Best wishes,
OAG