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I'm afraid you are correct. With the explosion of competition in NM - I'm disappointed in Management for expanding in a state where they should have seen this coming due to the open license application problem, but it is what it is... I still think we see underperforming store closings or sells if anyone will take them, before the fall is done.
Earnings aren't going be pretty.
Ouch, new all time low hit today. Someone dumped on us
Hmm...
It's difficult to have a set of variables up showing say Mesa Organics or Nancy Huber as currently meaningful to a NEW prospective investor. Sorry. They aren't. At present. Instead, They were - then. When it mattered -then. This site's references as it relates to the company is at best historical with no qualifications and quoting past projections or dated stuff is at best reaching all at once-- and not in a good way. If the lead was where they came from, sure, but it's not as it is displayed and reads.
It could be...
If there are significant objections, then lead each sig set of points in a year with a title say beginning with the year MMT was founded and leading up to becoming Schwazze. Give the viewer with history in a short synopsis of how a small collection of independent Colorado and New Mexico companies became the 8th largest by dispensary count playing Risk well by count per State in the United States and landmark it. Enjoy. Then, it would be additive over time instead of rewriting what was, what is, or will be. I'll volunteer to help. Bet some of the other board members here have recall of this stuff in spades.
The point is a ready reference for the current investor. Give them a meaningful track record to look at. A synopsis of people, culture, with a white board of progress in both good and leaner times. Hell, it could be a spreadsheet that would annoy every #Msogang person forever that has been a denier of what was and is a plan that has been articulated and well executed.
Suggestions:
Year and box displayed "white board" (# states # persons, #cultivations, # dispensaries (# by sub banner) YE Revs and YE GAAP
key personnel hires/transitions
companies included by type business and number
key locations (cities/states)
purpose and intent
results GAAP, Revs, OCF Year End (and something that is at least consistent if measurable without changing a letter of what is EBITDA) I recommend GAAP and where there is no figure, NA. If this is to become significant, GAAP will be the standard, so why not embrace it and play with the rest of the world?*
This should be fun. If you like, I'll help and let you format as to the tolerances of Ihub pages which I know not.
*Because the rest of the world doesn't play by the rules of 280e? I still recommend this is a time to embrace the suck (GAAP) by keeping a level playing field with reality and letting competitors look silly talking about fantasy numbers while going out of business or being denied a license renewal where they have no meaningful footprint or business acumen because of State's well...idiocracy.
Lol...the long game. Indeed. PZ looks like a SHWZ convert now. One of only half a dozen that seem to matter!
I tried to update it based off their investor deck on their website but the changes never saved. IHub kept erroring. Are you suggesting I just delete the entire intro? As for the CO tracking system, Metric. I have heard bad things about that company, the monopoly they have and now this most recent article about them re-invoicing (and a judge siding, kinda/sorta, with the Metric suggesting that one operator pay the invoice...and then sue to recoup damages -- which the suggestion was odd to me unless it had something to do with where the complaint was filed/heard).
Mods, one request. Delete the dated Schwazze intros as shown here (even more dated than their officially dated) and update after their next investor deck and/or website fix. A pot-pun-to-kettle comparison.
Article on CO market in general...consolidation continues in a downturn (current estimate of -12% statewide sales YoY) and the highlighted struggle of a five dispensary vertical operator's seed to sale in mostly med area of Colorado Springs and Pueblo West with the State's RFID tracking company re invoicing):
https://www.greenmarketreport.com/colorado-cannabis-sales-continue-falling/
Additional:
https://www.nationalgreensource.com/
Dye is the chairman of the board, and the board is more powerful than management.
Another senior level job posting - Senior Vice President of Retail
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/c/Schwazze/Job/Senior-Vice-President,-Retail-(CO)/-in-Denver,CO?jid=cfa79b1604819a20;
I'm still confused! We have the best management team ever assembled Dye steps down and we are left in the dark. Not sure we will see the rosey picture anymore. Did anyone go to the annual meeting?
PS your last sentence said it all.
Man I was so confused on what I was looking at when I went to the CROP site and searched by "Greenleaf". Some were "R.", others were just "R". The inconsistency in the name was as confusing as the multiple locations in what appeared directly across the street from a location. That is why I started to add part of the address in some of the names. All the 'new' locations were $0 sales, which is also unusual. I personally dont think that they are one location with multiple entrances...but could be for 1 or 2 of the new ones, based on the address. If they are 'entrance' based, and there are multiple pinpoints per location, than the state reported total dispensary count could be inflated. It is also like the state is posting newly licensed, but not yet opened locations, because I have seen situations on that site where a store was open for a day before the month close out and there was still an amount posted (even if it was a couple hundred bucks). Another one that confused me was the 3 Los Cruses locations; 2 new and 1 with a significant (96% MoM decline) all within a stones throw of one another within a mall-like setting (according to the map). As for an updated investor deck and an IR that is capable of providing actual information in responding to inquiries...I couldn't agree more...and is an absolute necessity. I have yet to get an actual (quantifiable) answer to my inquiry...and follow up email...regarding the number of Q1 transactions and avg basket size, per state, when this information is obviously known and previously provided on earnings calls -- with the exception of this past quarter. In general, I have been less active on the board...not just because I have been slammed at work...but also because I am starting to feel like SHWZ is transitioning from the company/mgmt that was easy to get behind...to just another dime-a-dozen cannabis company. We all knew CO is a challenging market and could see a NM inflection point was coming...but IMO now is the time the company needs to increase its communication with shareholders (via PR or updating the investor deck) so investors can treat the decline as 'temporary' and 'lean into' the vision. I also feel like that startup POS system that Justin and Nirup are Board Members for should also be rolled up under the SHWZ umbrella, and shareholders hold some form of ownership in the company since the company used...and are using...SHWZ dispensaries to prove out their technology. Justin and Nirup shouldn't be the only beneficiaries when investors also took part in the risk.
Thanks damAcon1. Nice rollup. I've had difficulty obtaining that info with lackluster results. When we start looking at dispensaries counts from what are dual licensed entities...perhaps the growth in the total number of dispensaries isn't quite as dramatic as it appears because of dual locations (situs) for "a" store with two unit doors on a Statewide basis? Do you also see this as a more probable explanation?
As examples...Some of these (I believe) of the R Greenleaf sites are revised locations or essentially duplicates where a store was to have been and has or is in the process of moving (Las Cruces for example all three is a move hence the big drop) and another store that was relocated earlier this year but don't recall specifically where a license is still current until revoked/admin closed out. Likewise, some of these are simply two entrances one for Med the other Rec as in dual units when a license is issued for each - individually? I believe that's mostly correct.
Earnings. Based on last year's timing this year could be announced on July 27th with earnings to be released on August 10th if they follow the past formula.
Meanwhile the real disservice by running silent and dated with inactive IR, lacking a current presentation, a static investor deck, a current tear sheet, indicates a tone change is needed by marketing the set up for their growth, by keeping the investment community involved with their latest actions which I've previously enumerated above as the missing brands and incorporated in their woefully neglected website which looks like any of two-three different companies from a temporal standpoint --60 where?, 45 or (19+6+18) or 43 as the website has the dispensary count the latter two in three places and in a Q1 PR had 60 as the count.
Positives? It doesn't look like they'll be paying an additional earn out to anyone with the pretty pink boxes you've displayed if this is a longer term trend. Another is perhaps the decreased sales and a good terrain trap modeling will allow for greater rollup of independent or smaller chains of distressed sites as this shakeout continues barring any meaningful govt policy assistance which as I write appears dimmer. That same scenario has an application as to larger companies as well that may need to shed ops. I'll confess I'm truly surprised some zombie companies in the "Tier II and Tier III and IV" are still around after the mid-point this year where the legal minefield has proven more an obstacle than I gave speedily appointed receiverships credit which have been largely frustrated because of conflicted State and Federal policies! As a result, the sector has been left with a raft of mostly junk, non-investment grade companies trading sub a dollar, let alone a few cents. That too hurts those that won't actively differentiate themselves.
Related. NM CCD made a big deal on the example they made with revoking Paradise Distro and I noticed another couple in the hopper with out-of-State cannabis prominently listed in the filings. I won't be surprised to see quite a few more of these sorts of actions shortly. A bunch actually. I believe that letter was effective and the counts seem to bear that as well. It appears this "illicit IC" supply chain route isn't from South of the border at all for cannabis. Not a LEO secret. California can and does screw everything up, lol.
I finally got around to pulling the information. Overall New Mexico sales were down MoM 10%, but as IPS has mentioned, it looks like explosive growth regarding New Mexico Dispensary count (57 total; 41 R.Greenleaf and 16 Everest -- according to NM CROP).
With the NM dispensary count increasing by 24 stores, I am curious to see what their cash position will be sitting at when they release Q2-23 earnings. We can all see the challenges in both the CO and NM markets, so the Q2 ER is setting up to be a let down. I expect the "analysts" to only see/report the combination let down of both revenue and cash decline, without diving any deeper. If this happens, I am thinking that this could present a decent buying opportunity...but will be weighing my decision to add based on whether or not the company manages to find a way to maintain their gross profit and adjusted EBITDA margins.
Totally agree as far as dead money. While I've been buying shares recently this guy really hits the nail on the head and certainly gives reason for a pause.
Plus the silence in management speaks volumes. New Mexico looked very promising in the beginning of legalization but recent uncontrolled dispensaries growing parabolic in a state with 2.1; mil vrs Co. with over 6.1mil and 635 dispensaries who is struggling financially certainly isn't a successful formula.
N.M. really fumbled the ball here. Hopefully they can correct the issues in a very timely fashion. Like yesterday!
Plus Co. sales have continued to plunge month after month. The state was doing $150mil 6 months ago and now $120Mil. Again lack of enforcement. Black market is running amuck and state officials do nothing.
Hope they are revoked and not a temporary suspension with a small fine. If so it would be merely mocking the state with no real repercussions with continued violations.
Good points all. Any decrease should be attenuated by the opening of new stores, which should in theory (and in practice) produce increased revs where they once never were before to be had. They already run lean. I too am looking forward to what they accomplish with white labels (and determine what occurs with Lowell's license during their transition) and think that a profit center opportunity with all the new competition from what are numerous standalone dispensaries opening up in the last few months and a third mfg facility as added to the fray.
With that said overhead is going up as fixed costs go up also not to mention head count and incidentals. With revenues not going up is not a recipe for success. Plus additional debt expense.
My hope is wholesale with the new hire can effectively offset the trend in N.M. I like the aggressiveness adding dispensaries but unless a few things change quickly things may not turn out as positive as us longs are expecting. Of course IMO.
As in number of dispensaries. Industrywide revenues as reported were stunted in last batch of consolidated reports for both CO and NM. Company expansion (growth) at the expense of those that cannot compete in such a difficult climate has been occurring at a faster rate. The only pubco comps left in either CO and NM are $CCHWF and $GDNS, neither of which has been doing well despite being in "other" States and are credited as true MSOs as a result? Like increased overhead much they do? The growth from 40 to what is by my count now 66 (as reported licensed locations and announced locations) via open sources is a 65% increase in '23 footprint from '22 Year End is parabolic. In sum, this frog is going to have a sore ass when done. Yes, times are tough, but they are executing a strategy that I believe has merit as the industry slogs along with the latest govt SAFE teaser in tow.
DENVER, Dec. 19, 2022 /CNW/ - PRESS RELEASE - Medicine Man Technologies, operating as Schwazze, a vertically integrated, multi-state operating cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico, reaches company milestone of 40 dispensaries across both states. On Dec. 15, Schwazze closed the transaction to acquire certain assets of Lightshade Labs LLC. The transaction included the adult-use Lightshade dispensaries located at 503 Havana St. in Aurora, as well as 2215 E. Mississippi Ave. in Denver's vibrant Washington Park neighborhood. The consideration for the acquisition was US$2.75 million which was paid as all cash.
Sorry but this is no parabolic growth, from 44 mill to 42 million this second quarter.
Excellent execution despite horrendous market headwinds: yes
Parabolic growth: no
Sustained progress. Company parabolic growth despite a positive macro environment by overdue govt legislation/admin. Reversal of govt inaction will provide what was intended to be accomplished here sooner by enhanced financial backing with a takeover likely with those conditions present. Should govt continue to disappoint near term, their growth as accelerated in a compressed market means at the end of the day increased market share with a regional center of mass as unmatched by any comp footprint, but certainly desirable to a much larger operator as dispensaries are necessary under the legal purchase of product framework. To me, this is an exciting time for focused execution while others, even "Titans of Industry" appear to be struggling:
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/05/48/d2/0548d210580dcd53e8c73e2286bde58a.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F0sHn9AXwAA5euP?format=jpg&name=large
You still seem very optimistic. Exactly what are your expectations over the next 12 months?
There is a link:
https://qimw5q0w5j.execute-api.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/prod/default.html
Select the box entitled find a dispensary.
Then...after it displays the reloaded page for dispensaries, scroll down a bit to the left and
Select a city from the drop-down menu.
Next, scroll or choose the drop-down list (page) (which is alphabetical) to view the dispensaries by business name -- in some cases (cities) there are multiple page lists. At the botton of the first list is a number in brackets. Click on it for an additional number of pages if they exist, remember they are in A-Z order and R. Greenleaf is listed as such under R. This will display every city a R. Greenleaf exists or existed, and the licenses are still current such as Las Cruces where they moved from one location to another earlier this year. Let me know if you find a 15th or more Everest! I didn't look.
Hope that helps, Pal!
What is the NMRLD search box?
What is the NMRLD search box?
Define "underperforming". I see the stated new license locations are more of an expectancy than closures, but you probably have better info than they do? Do share! This is a discussion board after all. I'll help...performing as to peers? Performing as to a function of ramp up and decline relative to?
They have a few underperforming units, will they close those?
70 number dispensaries look much closer before year's end.
I think they can,
I think they can,
I know they...wait...Guess we'll see.
$SHWZ appears to be opening more dispensaries under their R. Greenleaf banner post Hobbs in with listed addresses each in Taos, Bernalillo, Sunland Park (2nd) and Tucumcari. That should be with Everest a total of 37 for NM. Per the NMRLD search box:https://t.co/xbGmjFDijX
— Ried Bridges (@Ried_Bridges) July 9, 2023
Not much to report...Lol!!!!
R. Greenelaf #19 Hobbs dispensary finally shows up with zero recorded sales. BUT....So does #20 R, Greenleaf in Taos....and #21 Bernalillo, #22 Sunland Park (2nd) and #23 Tucumcari all with addresses and build outs? Huh!
NM count up to 1,047. They (NM) have been remiss in not showing actual licensed locations for a while. Wanna bet the numbers go up as this backlog is added?
https://qimw5q0w5j.execute-api.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/prod/dispensaries.html
Not SHWZ-specific, but potential catalyst-related...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172298596
I think the Wholesale Division is being fleshed out under CD's direction from the hires I'm seeing added. I wouldn't think there will be much movement this Q2 (historically reflects build in inventory and what will be reported as contracted?). Q3, yes for sales and Q4 as well.
To me, it appears he's putting together a deep team and with that I imagine we'll see more branding coming to their website and crossovers of their own cpg sku's into their stores and the addition of white labels to our fellow competitors from the multiple mfg facilities (now 2 in NM. The grows should be able to support SHWZ's locations and their competition to a varying degree. Flower firmed in CO, so an offline grow facility may have to come back this year (they had 7 at one time then 5...back to ?) That's for them to best implement as they have the pulse.
Still waiting to see the pubco side emerge with marketing and IT that project where they are now not last year or the year prior as when what I believe will be some fairly good macro news hits they need to be current and ready not on resting their laurels with dated materials even with what are obviously trending presently as compressed retail sales. Is this the jumping to a new market (State) signal as well? Obviously, what the rest always do! Or...do they go even deeper and keep eating into their TAM despite the competition? They've told us the latter many times, but the conditions were better so this puzzle piece is up for further debate. Or, stay flatline for a while? I discount the latter. I think the M of M&A may get accelerated shortly to gain more share, again. I also see this as more and more likely with a similar sized company or a larger outfit as govt timeline hiccup could jostle some companies into a kickstart prior to what will be uplisting.
Any possibility to see some wholesale sales this q in NM?
NM Dispensary count 1,045. Not as steep a climb as I thought it would be. Still no R. Greenleaf Hobbs location? Odd.
Monthly progress...noting less than half of the 23 positive moves involved had the first numeral being a whole dollar or more, a virtual wasteland of fractional penny moves. This suggests a bottom to me as for many a double zero has been met or isn't that far off for 24 of the 48 listed.
🇺🇸 #CannabisStocks
— Cannalorian (@Cannalorian) July 5, 2023
Month% June 2023$MSOS $PSDN $CNBS $MJ $MJUS $YOLO $POTX $THCX $CURLF $GTBIF $CRLBF $TCNNF $VRNOF $AYRWF $TRSSF $CCHWF $AAWH $FFNTF $GRWG $IIPR $PW $HYFM $GDNSF $GRAMF $MRMD $BMMJ $CXXIF $GLASF $MMNFF $JUSHF $STHZF $RWBYF $PLNHF $CNTMF $SLGWF $TLLTF $GRUSF https://t.co/dWMbuuI9e7 pic.twitter.com/t1tfD4WGsh
Dispensary count definitely having an impact with a steady decline in sales with a few hiccups.
Maybe the new hire Chris will help in a way that that isn't visual with retail Dispensary sales.
$SHWZ New Mexico cannabis sales by month
— The Dank Informer (@TheDankInformer) July 6, 2023
R. Greenleaf + Everest Apothecary combined sales totals$MSOS #Cannabis #CannabisIndustry #DataViz
source: NM CROP Portal pic.twitter.com/dJ3uWexh5h
Pass on that idea...speaking of zeros...
Yikes. Canopy Growth gets a price target of zero dollars from Eight Capital. Stock🔻12% today after a large bounce yesterday.
— Matt Lamers 🌻 (@matt_lamers) July 5, 2023
"We believe it is no longer appropriate to value Canopy as a going concern..." the analyst wrote. #CGC #WEED pic.twitter.com/734VZyFOkw
Sure, they first take Oklahoma, then Texas and Florida. Straighten out California then buy out Cgc. Everything is possible in lala land.
nice post though . do you think SHWZ will target CGC ? looks like CGC is quickly approaching reverse splitsville .
Some signs that the thesis often discused here is catching on:
There are eight US operators that generated positive tax-adjusted operational cash flow in 2022. Through June 30th, an equally weighted basket of these eight names is +9.66% and outperforming $MSOS by 30.40%. $GTBIF $MRMD $SHWZ $VEXT $PLNHF $TCNNF $GRUSF $CXXIF 1/2 pic.twitter.com/FaNMy3ZXUR
— Jesse Redmond (@jesseredmond) July 5, 2023
This may suggest investors are focusing on less speculative names. As Abner Kurtin told me, “In this environment it’s not about finding the stocks that will go up 200% rather than 150%, it’s about avoiding the ones that will go to zero.” 2/2
— Jesse Redmond (@jesseredmond) July 5, 2023
I saw that...IMO, bizarro world!
A new trend?
🇺🇸 #CannabisStocks
— Cannalorian (@Cannalorian) July 5, 2023
2023 Month by Month % $MSOS $PSDN $CNBS $MJ $MJUS $YOLO $POTX $THCX $CURLF $GTBIF $CRLBF $TCNNF $VRNOF $AYRWF $TRSSF $CCHWF $AAWH $FFNTF $GRWG $IIPR $PW $HYFM $GDNSF $GRAMF $MRMD $BMMJ $CXXIF $GLASF $MMNFF $JUSHF $STHZF $RWBYF $PLNHF $CNTMF $TLLTF $GRUSF https://t.co/Um79AGbx9Z pic.twitter.com/Ioq0H57eSJ
I don't think so, actually. I do want proactiveness, however...and passive anything at this point is a waste of investors time with talent they have hired.
Pretty bleak assessment. It could be a long wait.
R. Greenleaf and Everest will survive, but thrive is a becoming a fugitive term without some checks and balances. I think the letter points out (by those who are the industry) what is going wrong in NM. Unless a critical set of fixes are made this goes the way of Oklahoma pdq. So far NM hasn't updated the dispensary count from 1,006. Other numbers out and third best overall month this year. Any guesses for June dispensaries? 1,350-1,550? I think the latter number will be closer to where it settles before it gets better but won't be surprised if it goes well over 2,000. Eight enforcement officers for the entire State? That's a trainwreck coming off the rails now. What of illicit IC? Is that a problem? Last I read a biz in Albuquerque was caught with CA marked product for sale and nothing really happened? Personally, I think this was what the adults in the room had to do if the market is to remain relevant. A 10% bump in total sales with another 50% -100% growth in competitors and lower sales all around isn't what anyone signed up for and then suddenly figure out they can't do that for very long (and) will as you've mentioned, close out for those who can't compete. Tax rev collection becoming an added cost for the State as more of these companies fall into arrears won't help but may gain some greater attention from their seed to leaf counters which aren't doing such a dandy job on illicit coming into NM --where no tax is collected either.
GreenWave Advisors cannabis stock performance through Q2:
#cannabis stock performance through Q2. pic.twitter.com/tEon1z3PzY
— GreenWave Advisors (@GreenWaveMJ) July 3, 2023
When I have had an active order, it has been slightly under 0.90, just incase...however I would have thought it would have hit already...and I felt like an idiot the last time it dropped and I missed out over pinching pennies. Now with the SAFE talk supposedly once the govt is back in session, it seems I might have to continue practicing patience...which is fine because right now I am looking at a bioscience company, provided dips back near its all-time low.
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Meet the "Steve Jobs of Cannabis" and Schwazze's Chief Cultivation Officer, Josh Haupt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s36OIBT4XiQ&t=1s
Star Buds is one of the Most Recognized and Successful Retail Cannabis Operators in North America
Company Projects Pro Forma Revenue for Schwazze and its Two Acquisitions (Mesa Organics and Star Buds) of $95 Million in 2020
Company Expects to Be Cash Flow Positive Beginning in January 2021
Company Anticipates Acquiring Remaining Seven Star Buds Retail Dispensaries in Colorado during the First Quarter 2021
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