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My bigger worry is that this lame duck session will signal again a struggle to pass SAFE, more than likely due to focusing on ensuring funding the government occurs, and a slide hits all MJ stocks making all this progress moot.
Wonder if it's the CEO smart buying today? Collecting flipper shares down here at low levels to take them out of the float before buying at ask starts up again?
What additional I found SHWZ ...+0.08 earnings for '23 at MarketWatch and NASDAQ (both using FactSet) I believe. So, this chart's view of SHWZ appears conservative depending on the analyst/service.
We should be one of the small few for 2023. Cresco Labs should drop off. No way they find positive EPS estimates if/after the Columbia deal closes. Harvest is the reason Trulieve is not on the plus side...and Trulieve touted that acquisition as accretive to the business. I also expect least one other...if not two...to miss as well.
SHWZ on the good list for 2023
2023 EPS Estimates$GTBIF $0.35$VRNOF $0.20$MRMD $0.06$CRLBF $0.05 ( $CCHW not included)$SHWZ $0.04$VEXTF $0.04$FFNTF: $0.02
— MJ Stock Trader (@stock_mj) November 27, 2022
NEGATIVE$TCNNF -$0.02$AAWH -$0.02$TRSSF -$0.08$CURLF -$0.09$CCHWF -$0.17$JUSHF -$0.24$AYRWF -$0.84$GLASF -$0.86$GRAMF -$0.98$CURA $TRUL
great perspective about the odds of Safe Banking passing
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/where-the-new-republican-and-democratic-congressional-leaders-stand-on-marijuana/
JD is buying shares like a mad man, we all know it is undervalued but I am starting to think JD knows something more.
Good times ahead,
Knife
Last one for the evening. Here's a great chart showing Institutional ownership for U.S. Cannabis vs other industries. $MSOS pic.twitter.com/PnlsAn58E0
— March2Millions (@March2Millions) November 27, 2022
Carl Merton, Chief Financial Officer at Tilray Brands
"The current issue on institutional funds is more about custody of the shares than it is about their interest in the space. They just don't have someone to hold the shares for them, largely because of federal illegality in the U.S. There are versions of the SAFE+ Banking Act that could provide comfort to the custodians and allow for them to hold shares for their clients but there are also versions of SAFE+ that don't. One of the latest credible analyst reports that I've read, suggests that the final contents of the SAFE+ Banking Act, if passed, may not be known until minutes before the vote."
Search for the term “Safe Banking ” over the last 5 yrs
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&gprop=news&q=safe%20banking
The realities of the cannabis industry has been very difficult to navigate .
We often observe imperfect or incomplete information (thanks to Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle). And pay to play Analysts pushing the big MSO's
We have been inundated with so much information that separating the signal from the noise becomes difficult.
These two problems are solved by developing our judgment — our practical wisdom. Both of these come with spending time in this industry.
Judgment is key. Without judgment, the data means nothing. It is not necessarily the one with more information who will come out victorious, it is the one with better judgment , the one who is better at discerning realities from patterns. This comes from constant observation of the chatrooms , quaterly financials etc.
We need to constantly break apart our old cannaibis industry paradigms and put the resulting pieces back together to create a new perspective that better matches the current cannabis industries realities.
SHWz without a doubt is uniquely situated to take advantage
The fun I have with this sector is the oddities that presume to be actual investment vehicles that aren't derelict.
IMO, my "WORSTEST" (I know that is wrong) list in bad to least bad as in unqualified:
ITHUF -FU to investors by billions with a BILLIONS share count
MMNFF See ITHUF and gross problems that are never ending
RWBYF Shells, losses and incredible deals --not pasta.
VRNOF We ran out of checks or money...wat about GGNSF? Taxes? Well, smokes and mirrors for the daily double then.
GLASF Oh, Canada, Oh, Canada... Gavin Newsome can't save us...
IMO, my oh sh*t list as can implode any second:
CNTMF No CFO hence...now a no MCTO situation (I should effn celebrate that?)
and...
Any company with a CEO who reportedly beat his girlfriend/companion and stays on or any company's Board \
Any company with mass resignations including the lawyer because of a "personal problem")
I think thiese refer to AAWH and GTBIF if I recall correctly. Hope not, but, sheesh! Yes, these companies as mentioned besides SHWZ are a sh*tshow imo.
Besides SHWZ, the rest as unmentioned a not worth investing as they have dead med mostly markets for the next two years, despite their mass (say TCNNF) have no scale by their stretch, are led by inept/OTC freaks, or have folded up their tents after amassing huge debt in favor of a take under. oR never do what they say they plan to do. Total BS!
And then there are the self-proclaimed "Titans of Industry"...effin joke from the same banks founder JPM and the same legacy biz won't lend (w/o SAFE). Laughable! Bit of an oxymoron!
SHWZ still higher than Columbia Care even after a .5579 down and out undertaking by CRLBF of CCHWF. Rocking it with Tyson 2.0? Another remake, lend me your ear....... Shidiots. I will piss on their graves at some point but prefer to focus on business that will be here next year and intact after these morons implode and continue to try with great might to make the sector a folly for investment. Sad part is the detractors are succeeding and the ETFs only support actual losers. They have no leadership nor drive to help the sector with what could be a winning strategy. Instead, they are concerned with impressing their twitter pals with failure and a cool I know Jim Cramer or have a spot on CNBC. Ski much? Well it must be nice to be snow blind. Worthless MFs.
On target.
Hell'va write up on the prior MDCL. Contrast that now with the winning discipline required to run a business in a businesslike manner --unlike creative well meaning, but undisciplined and inexperienced formers. Jesus, the infamous Joe Puglisi conference call to the effect, "Andy has made every mistake in the book....but.." Now more recently, fast forward with JD, "This Team likes to win...a classic in motivation and trust that is constantly being earned with real, consistent, and tangible results. As an investor with what to me is significant, I could not be happier with the progress. Now kick the shares into gear and go!
I wonder if those are the two licenses are from the lightshade purchase
Per a Colorado operator on Twitter, Los Sueños didn't even plant their fields this year. Which is also in line with what Boris, Curaleaf's chairman, previously mentioned...(temporarily) turning off assets in California and Colorado because of (wholesale) price compression.
He signed term sheets with companies that were going to go bankrupt without mdcl diluting heavily. He misled investors.
Dye saved Mesa Organics and Purplebee’s. Their financials had a going concern and earned a terrible write up by someone on seeking alpha.
Colorado Harvest: About 18 months ago, pounds of indoor-grown wholesale flower fell to around $700 a pound. “We almost lost the whole thing then,” Cullen said. https://mjbizdaily.com/premium-flower-demand-drives-colorado-wholesale-marijuana-prices-to-nearly-five-year-highs/
18 months before this article was written was when Andy Williams signed term sheets with this company.
Medically correct has stopped its cbd line from being purchased online. Must not be live any longer or doing well. Incredibles had already sold their brand to green thumb to market everywhere outside of Colorado before andy Williams signed that contract. Not really sure why.
MedPharm has still not launched its trials yet. Another suck on profits? MedPharm’s vapes clog all the time. They are now under a complete rebrand.
Medicine man sells seedy weed and is not very high quality. Matches Columbia cares standards. Now Cresco has a lot of work to do. Not even sure what their standards are with cannabis.
I’m pretty sure Los Sueños is really hurting with the oversupply issues right now. Very happy that Curaleaf overpaid tremendously for that. Over $50m or $60m.
Starbuds was the anchor. Dye secured the best that Andy Williams agreed to purchase and it saved mdcl from going under.
Has High Tide ever made money? I haven't followed them for a while now, but last I checked they were growing revenues quarter over quarter pretty rapidly, but always net losses.
I'll stick with SHWZ (and MRMD). They both know how to scale their businesses properly and both seem to care about shareholder value.
My digs are out if appreciation for things learned throughout my cannabis experience. With Andy at the helm he ultimately taught me a lot about the industry. He taught me that global cannabis wasn't going to be grown in Canadian greenhouses (bailed out of the LPs at the right time)...but it was also too early in the game for me to realize the 'bro-tactic' of PRing any and everything for an unrealistic gain in the stock price. Unfortunately I bought into that hype, to which I learned another valuable lesson: term sheets do not equal guaranteed acquisition. I am also grateful that he found someone capable of overtaking the company and bringing his and Brett's vision to fruition.
I wish people here would quit slamming Andy Williams. I was here through his time running the show and he is responsible for this company being what it is. He did some great things including co-founding the company. I do understand that he made too big of a bet at the end and it collapsed and backfired and Dye had to bail him out. But I’m convinced (with no evidence) that Andy still holds a large position of shares and is just off being a mountain man. Because he could afford to retire early.
For sure! SHWZ is my largest cannabis holding, by far...and the only company I have confidence in. Been adding some NewLake Capital. The dividend has been nice, but my play with that is the potential re-rating if they can uplist to a big board. We all seen how the big board likes IIPR. If there is some form of banking, or some reinstatement of the Cole Memo, they will be the first allowed to make the move.
Another 500k shares purchased by JD. WOW!!! https://newsfilter.io/a/ea6b8166116d6bbe8177057d5f0458e6
Well I got lots of shwz and a small position in hide tide….see what happens…..
I wish you luck! I haven't pinpointed it but I do not like HighTide. They just don't pass my gut check. There is a difference with SHWZ. They proved capable of bolting on new stores, and growing revenue/margins, while the other seems Andy Williams old school...PR EVERYTHING.
That’s why I finally pulled the the trigger and bought some high tide stock….they are winning the bricks and mortar battle in Canada just like shwz in their states…add a little safe plus and watch out.
Spot on! I offer complete agreement with your synopsis and much better stated than mine. IC anytime in the future is a stinky red herring.
I agree with your assessment of said overvalued company....however for some strange reason people seem to think that interstate commerce is going to happen sooner rather than later. You listen to comments on Twitter spaces acting like it is some under the radar stock pick because of it's capability to product product at scale. It is a complete re-gift of 2018 Canadian players...apparently people forget (pretty fast) on just how well that worked out! Plus, it is laughable at this point to think that it is anywhere close. Sure it is happening in the illicit market, daily, but to have new states turning online knowing that the win is in everything seed to sale within their borders, why would any state give up a possible, significant, revenue stream even if it was acceptable? Then you look at all the states that are talking about IC and realize just how hilarious it is. It is the states with an oversupply issue! Of course they need to come up with some type of (investor) sales tactic, if they want to remain relevant.
Emerald Fields 2 new dispensaries coming soon-- Walsh Park and Aurora.
https://emeraldfields.com/locations/wash-park-marijuana-dispensary/
https://emeraldfields.com/locations/aurora-marijuana-dispensary/
Have to admit, it sounds encouraging (SAFE). Until a law on the books, just happy talk from the uni-party in DC which gets little accomplished. They have no tangible credibility as a whole on this issue, but in their efforts and successes to fund raise for another day while protecting their taxing authority like 280e is more than intact. I prefer to give them credit for what they don't do, staying mostly out of the way as a State's Rights issue. With banking they could help, but a bridge too far approaching a dozen times? Wake me when it's passed.
While on subjects of bloat I've started doing a deeper dive in to what is the adjusted near peer group for SHWZ going forward. The results, while some have greater revenues by far, are also amazing as to waste via a lack of meaningful profitable scale. And that has never stopped the 'horribly performing Canna ETFs from dca'ing. At present, my favorite over valued Tier II which should correct sharply down in pps is GLASF. It is simply the most overpriced stock in the group, and I can see an adjustment by a factor of stupid-ridiculous multiples on the downside to the well under 50 centavos trading range --and ultimately lower like a GRAMF. A commodity wholesaler in a State with the greatest illicit problem, a CA exclusive environment, and 7-dispensary smallish footprint doesn't add up to where it's trading at on a price per share adjusted basis. It's ripe for harvesting by the shorts fundamentally speaking imo.
https://www.reddit.com/r/SHWZ/comments/z2hnbn/safe_banking_tweak_would_be_huge_plus_for/
SAFE Banking Tweak Would Be Huge ‘Plus’ for Financial, Cannabis Industries
As the regulated sale of cannabis increasingly becomes sanctioned under state law, federal implications arising from its classification as a controlled substance continue to frustrate those in the banking industry who view the meteoric rise of the cannabis industry as a promising opportunity (legal market sales in 2022 are expected to reach $33 billion[1]). Despite the U.S. Department of Justice’s (“DOJ”) continued adherence to its non-enforcement stance as first outlined in the (now rescinded) Cole Memorandum, financial institutions that provide professional services to state-sanctioned cannabis businesses continue to face the potential for severe consequences stemming from, among other things, violation of the Controlled Substances Act, the Bank Secrecy Act, and anti-money laundering laws. Members of Congress have attempted, and failed, to address this uncertainty through the Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act. In its most basic sense, the SAFE Banking Act sought to prohibit federal regulators from penalizing a depository institution for providing banking services to a legitimate cannabis-related business (a business that complies with state law and the 2018 Farm Bill or Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018). Although the DOJ has not made it a priority to prosecute financial institutions for providing services to cannabis-related businesses, the majority of these institutions remain wary of acting without a change in federal law. Unfortunately, the SAFE Banking Act has repeatedly died in the Senate after passing in the House of Representatives on seven occasions.
Following President Biden’s October 6, 2022, statement on marijuana reform, focus predictably shifted back to Congress and ultimately to the SAFE Banking Act. While the SAFE Banking Act has always counted members from both sides of aisle among its supporters, a new concept has been introduced via the “SAFE Banking Act Plus” that, aptly so, aspires to not only revive the principal thrust of the SAFE Banking Act but also address broad social inequity in the cannabis sector that Senate Democrats criticized the original proposed legislation for failing to address.
Although no draft text of the SAFE Banking Act Plus has been released, information coming from Capitol Hill suggests that the prospect of the act is an exciting development because this act, unlike its predecessor, will have a formidable chance of becoming law. Democratic members of Congress have historically led the charge on marijuana reform at the federal level; however, despite having nine Republican co-sponsors, the SAFE Banking Act failed to pass in the Senate because of intra-party displeasure at how the act, as drafted, had overwhelmingly favored large-industry interests. Such quarrels have previously led to the Senate Majority Leader expressing that he will not advance the SAFE Banking Act in his chamber. However, the SAFE Banking Act Plus is expected to be different.
In addition to protecting banking institutions from scrutiny for dealing with legitimate cannabis businesses, the SAFE Banking Act Plus would expand small business loan eligibility to cannabis businesses, it would afford veterans access to medical marijuana through the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, and it would provide financial resources to states for administrative costs relating to expungement efforts. Proponents of the SAFE Banking Act Plus are optimistic that the act will strike a much-needed compromise among Democratic Senators that will garner widespread support. Political analysts predict that the bill is likely to pass during the so-called “lame duck session,” prior to the new Congress being sworn in in January 2023.
Evidence suggests that federal regulators have generally taken a laissez-faire approach to enforcement when it comes to financial institutions banking the cannabis industry. Although this might suggest that the Safe Banking Act Plus would have little practical effect—to an industry that thrives on its aversion to risk, the Safe Banking Act Plus, if passed, will provide financial institutions interested in working with the cannabis industry with much-needed reassurance that they are federally compliant, especially as political winds shift.
Yes, people will be upset if #SAFEBanking does not pass.
— Adastra (@numbersnarrati) November 24, 2022
Due to the risk we are seeing only 10s of millions in inflows.
But if it passes, expect 100s of millions in inflows & $MSOS & good stocks to take off like...
Time will tell. pic.twitter.com/Qofj6BniOA
I heard from a reliable source that safe banking is passing next week
https://www.marijuanamoment.net/feds-release-updated-marijuana-banking-info-including-new-state-level-breakdown-as-congress-considers-reform/
Text message from IR today…Hi Ara sorry for the late reply. I’m in London doing some mining stuff. Yes Schwazze is on a tear. We’re doing a few conferences as well in the fall. We will be at the Benchmark in December 1 and we’re doing a bit of a roadshow around that as well, so hopefully the stock keeps going up.
Lowell Farms arrives in NM's R Greenleaf Dispensaries!
Lowell Farms has been a trusted name in the artisan cannabis space since 1909. The rustic design of Lowell's packaging represents the brand's dedication to using sustainable and natural materials. As far as functionality goes, Lowell Farms is masterful in creating an all-encompassing preroll product that any cannabis user would enjoy. Equipped with matches and a strike pad, Lowell Originals and Quicks are engineered for adventure.
Lowell Originals
The Classic Smokes pack has become a symbol of quality and craftsmanship for millions of consumers nationwide. Each pre-roll pack comes completely self-contained with six .6g pre-rolls, matches, and a striker, so you’ve got everything you need to spark adventure anywhere.
Lowell Quicks
Lowell Quicks include ten .35 gram mini-pre-rolls. Perfect for enjoying a quick smoke on-the-go.
The New Mexico Line
Sandia Sativa
Originals and Quicks available only at R.Greenleaf
505 Hybrid
Originals and Quicks available only at R.Greenleaf
Old Town Indica
Originals and Quicks available only at R.Greenleaf
Wouldn't $50 per share be dandy down the road!
Happy Thanksgiving!
Lowell making headways into Colorado thru SHWZ wholesale relationship with dispensaries
America's Favorite Pre-Roll is coming to Colorado!
— Lowell Farms (@LowellFarms) November 22, 2022
Stop by our friends at @livwellcannabis on November 26th and experience three brand-new blends exclusive to Colorado. #NothingSmokesLikeaLowell pic.twitter.com/11kzjRCuPT
lol all this bickering back & forth is very counterproductive . peeps taking shots @ you or whatever just ignore it . DAMN ..........JD is working towards buying up the GD float & whatnot . LoL thats a BFD ! you own shares of this I assume . BE HAPPY ! SHMOKE A FAT A$$ DOOBIE IN ITS ENTIRETY BY YOURSELF & kick back and think about how lucky you are to be participating in this historic event in human history . this will only happen once and we are in THE hottest cannabis ticker in the sector and only the peeps posting and contributing here know this . DAMN i gotta get more shares ! $HWZ MOTHERBITCHES !!!!!!!!
HUH? Didn't I post on the Schwazze board? Wasn't the price trading at $2.10 earlier, before I posted that they were walking it back down on 100 share bid whacks? Isn't $1.86 considerably lower than $2.10? Or even the close of $1.95 lower than $2.10? Why is the bid wracking so hard to understand? Sheesh
If wishes were horses. or Always with the negative waves, Moriarty.
With 1,693 combined followers and 154,692 posts later (for a few fractions of pennies of penies) and wrong by a mere dollar now...up? Well, between his thehumanchessmachine and his Drugdoctor's orders as to demanding reduced interest, imaginary insider sales, and what should be likely BORROWED interest in an OTC security what, I mean what could or did go wrong? Well, in good moderation:
Doc , exactly what stock are you talking about ? SHWZ is up huge today , It closed up over 12.1%
Did the same thing yesterday almost all day with a little rebound end of day. One more day with Dye buying should totally keep the rally going
Except now they are walking it back down with 100 share bid whacks...
Look at what’s happening at $SHWZ CEO Justin Dye just took 1 million plus shares down on the open market. Stock is up 90% over the last two weeks. Better to flush out the weak hands now and lock those shares up.
— George (@Ace_Bentura) November 23, 2022
I'm good with them selling, once they are out of the way there will be almost no resistance.
Knife
Obviously it’s someone with a large position liquidating…..no retailer has that much firepower….I’d guess it’s a former insider…jmo
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Meet the "Steve Jobs of Cannabis" and Schwazze's Chief Cultivation Officer, Josh Haupt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s36OIBT4XiQ&t=1s
Star Buds is one of the Most Recognized and Successful Retail Cannabis Operators in North America
Company Projects Pro Forma Revenue for Schwazze and its Two Acquisitions (Mesa Organics and Star Buds) of $95 Million in 2020
Company Expects to Be Cash Flow Positive Beginning in January 2021
Company Anticipates Acquiring Remaining Seven Star Buds Retail Dispensaries in Colorado during the First Quarter 2021
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