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Been sitting on my 100k shares for some time…..putting money to work elsewhere right now…..probably a good time to buy a few of the big names if you think safe banking or rescheduling is close to occurring….jmo
Been debating on adding. I am comfortable with the number of shares that I have, not sure if I trust where the industry is heading...and these companies still cycle together. I like the price, and buying will cost average me down, but I am looking at another stock...and giving it a little bit more time see if my target hits there. If not, I will add more here.
I agree. They should have sat on the sidelines with this one. Keep your mouth shut and keep executing. Everyone saw it coming, and their efficient, vertically integrated, business will get through it. I guess on the plus side, this being signed by RGreenLeaf and Everest must mean we are officially an industry 'MSO'...since all they do is 'cry wolf'.
Yes we did. I believe quite a few will close their doors quickly. The survivors should be much healthier in the end
.
With that said I bought another 900 shares at $1.06 Anyone else adding besides me?
Personally I believe something is brewing in these challenging times.
Reckless opening of dispensaries is foolish….it will correct itself over time….jmo
We all knew it was coming: https://www.kob.com/new-mexico/cannabis-industry-leaders-ask-state-to-pause-new-licenses/
Signed by Ken Diehl on behalf of both R. Green Leaf and Everest.
(I thought we welcomed competition?)
The letter said, in part:
An unfortunate byproduct of the free-market approach that our state took for licensing new operators is a saturation of regulated and illegal cannabis products in New Mexico. These two factors are resulting in homegrown small and medium-sized cannabis businesses being forced to close their doors or lay off staff. Our local businesses simply cannot compete with the illicit market and the immense oversupply.
NM Brand Ambassador position reposted yesterday. Continued hiring looks better than likely. In other news...SHWZ may finish with their first green tile for the first time in 6-months in 2023 --if it can stay above $0.93 by the close today:
🇺🇸 #CannabisStocks
— Cannalorian (@Cannalorian) May 31, 2023
2023 Month by Month % $MSOS $PSDN $CNBS $MJ $MJUS $YOLO $POTX $THCX $CURLF $GTBIF $CRLBF $TCNNF $VRNOF $AYRWF $TRSSF $CCHWF $AAWH $FFNTF $GRWG $IIPR $PW $HYFM $GDNSF $GRAMF $MRMD $BMMJ $CXXIF $GLASF $MMNFF $JUSHF $STHZF $RWBYF $PLNHF $CNTMF $SLGWF $TLLTF https://t.co/hzN268oOnQ pic.twitter.com/PENG4uT6J8
Nice chart.
Nice Marmot.
Where is that funny thing called GAAP fit in? While fixing stuff here and there that would be an interesting metric to embrace for the long haul if this is planning on a successful future and not bathing simply in good faith.
The dated tear sheet...progress, gone the way of "404 Not Found". Let's see if they update it. Then, assuming limping and used dried chewing gum are mutually exclusive, do they have the moxie to replace the current IR model with one that works?
https://dev.schwazze.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Schwazze-Fact-Sheet-May-05.pdf
Updated Share Count Analysis for Schwazze (6/28/23)
Below is a Share Analysis for SHWZ with a breakdown of future share issuances based on a combination of acquisition payments/earnouts, option festing, and PIKs from the Preferred and Convertible Debt. The above assumes Fully Diluted on an "as if converted basis" for all equity. Given today's share price, many of the Options, Warrants and Convertibles are out of the money.
r/SHWZ - Updated Share Count Analysis for Schwazze (6/28/23)
Overall, at the end of Q2'23 we should have basic shares issued in the neighborhood of 72MM (vs. 56.352MM shares issued at the end of last quarter).
Much of this growth will be from the recent closings of the acquisitions of Evergreen/Everest, Akimbo, and Smokey's.
The Dilutive securities (i.e., the PIK components of the convertible debt and preferred shares) will continue to be an albatross on the overall FD "as if converted" share count for the next couple of years (until the debt matures or is paid off). Today, it adds a little over 2MM shares per quarter to that count.
However, as long as SHWZ is able to deploy capital with returns in excess of its cost of capital, then it will be manageable.
I suspect management will look to pay down the convertible debt (which is the biggest culprit to that overhang) but not till either SAFE Banking is passed or until the latter half of 2025 when it has gotten past the bulk of the prepayment penalties.
I remain bullish on Schwazze, but with the softness in the Cannabis Sector we are witnessing in New Mexico due to increased dispensary counts and margin compression, I am lowering my prior 12-month valuation estimate of $2.5 to $3/share to a reduced range from $2 to $2.5/share to reflect the macro conditions on the Cannabis sector (not the performance of the company as a whole, which has been exemplary to say the least).
https://www.reddit.com/r/SHWZ/comments/14ldomk/updated_share_count_analysis_for_schwazze_62823/
Use the link to see the chart
I'll hold the baby, but the bath water can go. Your points of contention concerning IR/IT are on the mark. With it possible the Feds get it right b4 the 2024 General Election, and get it done, SHWZ needs to bring the A game.
Change 1 for the better:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHWZ/company-insights?p=SHWZ 92 overall and a 85 hiring
Change 2 an unknown:
Many postings vanished overnight (either filled or dropped?) https://secure2.entertimeonline.com/ta/Schwazze.careers?CareersSearch
No Change 3 ad nauseum:
No changes as for dispensary counts which are inconsistent on the site, a dated investor deck, a dated tear sheet, nonexistent brand links or one set of numbers for investors re (people, dispensaries, cultivations and states (they can add to two) no upcoming events, Standing Akimbo, Everest, and coming soon Star*Buds & R Greenleaf Hobbs...missing. It's not that that's hard. It's a public company. They act like they are private. The stock price action is syncing with their level of effort to promote what they have. So their customers are better off left guessing as to alternative choices that they manage in the same city or county or state or state next door? At some point this needs a swift kick in the collective rear. The market has spoken. And it reflects with low volume and IR focus that is frankly, substandard.
Just getting cannabis talked about again is a start.
All the best,
Knife
Interesting...hopefully just keeping cannabis in the conversation will bring more eyes, and money, back into the industry:
DeSantis' opposition to marijuana decriminalization is wrong. I will decriminalize cannabis at the federal level. Current situation with contradictory state + federal laws is absurd. States should be able to decide without federal interference. #Kennedy24https://t.co/GtFZRJwCAa
— Robert F. Kennedy Jr (@RobertKennedyJr) June 25, 2023
At this point, everyone involved in the industry feels that federal involvement is inevitable (if not long overdue)...the timing is what no one can pinpoint. IMO banking should have already happened...get these companies off of cash-only and onto a paper trail so that the govt can audit them and make sure that they are paying their fair share. The fact that the IRS is not the biggest advocate pushing the banking movement, honestly, has me scratching my head.
In general, it is hard not to become increasingly skeptical that anything will happen. I mean Florida, regardless of the amount of money that was recently invested in the push for adult use, seems like that excitement is waning by the day.
Personally, I could see banking happening...just don't know when...but I am struggling to wrap my head around the rescheduling piece. Sure we all know that it shouldn't be schedule 1 (there is medical value), however, the govt making (recent) moves within the research area has me thinking that this time around they will punt. They will reschedule the reschedule claiming that they want additional, DEA sponsored, medical research to support their decision...and then when that time comes they will decide that the best course of action is to deschedule the drug completely -- leaving the decision up to the states (bypassing the question of interstate commerce) and substitute the current 280E tax with a federal excise tax. Just my thoughts...so I'll guess 2026 before (non-banking) federal movement...and continue to hope that I am wrong and completely overshot it.
I have been watching wholesale prices going back up (retrace from 3-months ago thus far) in CO. It appears some things may go greener for the industry in the Senate. With banking we get credit cards and AU sales go up by 1/3 to a double. Chuck the schmuck can still louse this up before July closes, but am thinking he doesn't. I think we end up with a schedule 3 or less from Becerra by mid Sept. The macro news favors banking before rescheduling...or the squids at GS would miss out, and that could never be allowed to happen in places as incestuous as NYC and DC when looking at how things work and why in what order, lol.
Yea, he probably meant crackerjack management, lol. I was first attracted to this stock by the incredibly low outstanding and float, and supported using shares for acquisitions while we had a higher stock price. But now at dollar and sub-dollar levels, it's fairly obvious to me that distribution is happening, and there just aren't enough investors interested in weed stocks any more to support the price. They should do acquisitions, imo, with cash until the share price recovers, otherwise the stock will be so diluted, it won't be able to rally much, unless the macro weed environment takes a 180 degree turn.
You meant crackerjack?
More confusion in investor land...yesterday I read a post on Yahoo that they didn't buy the licenses...incorrect as I reread the 8-K (parenthesis reading confusion) as to what was not was not listed there, so the operating licenses were purchased I believe:
Gerry
23 hours ago
Standing Akimbo deal. One dispensary for $10M which includes a 4.9M share dilution ??
Schwazze gets $2k in cash, the store inventory, and the customer list.
What they don't get. All the licenses, any property including the Moffat grow operation.
Basically after the smoke clears Kirson and Murphy can use their retained licenses to continue selling product as a competitor to the acquired dispensary. Can't find any non compete clause.
Kirson and Murphy even get to keep the ATM contract inside of the Jason Street store. Come on ! This is where the easy money comes from. As long as Safe Banking is held hostage by Congress this is the only place in cannabis that is exempt from the pricing wars. For the customers who don't carry cash (which is most) they are a captive audience.
There are Lock-Up restrictions on shares but they are omitted from the contract so who knows when those shares will be hitting the market. 4.5 Million shares into the market for a company that trades 58k shares a day on average will without a doubt put some serious pressure on the PPS.
Colorado is still offering licenses for less than $10k total all in. Not sure about Denver ? Will the city no longer approve any additional stores therefore this deal is the only way to get a larger Denver footprint ?
I'm looking for a reason this makes sense in the darkest market for cannabis to date ?
Sure seems very expensive to me. Another $10 million acquisition. Float still ok imo however the o/s is getting well above 200 mil when converted and exercised. Beginning to think this isn't the crackpot management we all thought.
I hoped for 20 stock price, then maybe 10, now id settle for 2.00
Wheres JD when theres explaing to do
$SHWZ used to be a low float stock, but now more and more dilution. I know they have the cash on hand to close that acquisition, why are they diluting the stock for such a relatively small deal? https://ir.schwazze.com/node/10631/html
Y’all get the email of the closed acquisition 8K filing today after hours?
Not me. Right or wrong going to continue dollar cost average. I don't believe anything has changed. Hardly doubt anything new from meeting. IMO, more losses in the next few q's as NM will be extremely competitive and margins challenged.
In other company news.. their last trade on Canadian NEO was back on February 17th of this year...so don't be shocked by a significant drop headline if it next trades there from $1.84 CA to something much less today. New corporate wholesale-retail positions listed as "Brand Ambassadors" advertised for hire in both CO and NM. Still no sign of Everest or Standing Akimbo or new anything coming soon. Perhaps this is a "do no harm period" than to their existing investors holding common stock. Ha-ha. Oh, there was an annual meeting as well today. Anyone here attend?
That's one long summer then. Great research, btw.
H.R.8454 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Medical Marijuana and Cannabidiol Research Expansion Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congress. It is near the bottom, under Title IV **REQUIRES** HHS to submit a report by December 2nd on the medical effects of Cannabis and the potential side effects.
This may not be a requirement to comeback with a scheduling recommendation, but it surely is a deadline for completing most if not all of the research/review that the agency needs to complete.
https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/a-december-2nd-deadline-for-rescheduling?r=7v1yt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I’d say sell at $1.20 and buy at $1….looks like it’s going to bounce in that range until something politically gets done…..jmo
Well, Schumer popped up like some sonic sound byte hedgehog and is stating safe banking will pass again. Meaningless words until something actually passes. But it got us over a buck again. If more dithering occurs as has happened before we will spend the summer sub-buck during the MJ summer doldrums.
Feels like we are in the twilight zone. WTF?
Dollar Days!
And since this was Vridian chart from earlier this month...why not as a company post it to the Schwazze Twitter account, Schwazze IR? In fact there hasn't been a tweet on twitter from the company since 2020??? Who are these highly compensated "ghosts" doing IR? WTF???
https://twitter.com/Schwazze
Sub a buck. Current tear sheet from website. May 05 of what year?
https://schwazze.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Schwazze-Fact-Sheet-May-05.pdf
IR's all over it. This is what good must look like... I'd hate to see what carelessness looks like.
Seems plausible that rescheduling is near , and that plus safe banking is coming soon . This should end predatory lending and draconian tax burdens , lol those descriptive terms sounds like in describing and satanic cult !
I was told 3 weeks ago by a friend who follows Pharma not cannabis in DC that the rescheduling work is done and “sitting in a desk drawer.”
— Jason Wild (@JasonGWild) June 16, 2023
Great points fellow message board posters. Yup! I have been going over the many folks that work for Schwazze on Linked-In. Did you know Schwazze has a full time DEI hire? As the saying goes, if they have time to do so many wonderful things, why not do the most important things first? US corporate charters, US-State employment laws, and hiring policies already recognize that discriminatory practices are illegal. So with that in mind, how about promoting the business with a purpose that actually has a beneficial return on investment while holding hands and feeling the vibe in Denver ...and put a synchronized plans team together that can add stuff, schedule, and document events for the investment world while a public company? And while at it, address their Yahoo metrics as their pie chart Company Insights score is going down with no significant hiring nor sustainability despite vertical integration?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHWZ/company-insights?p=SHWZ
FWIW,, I'm averaging down. My thought and opinions are just that. I have been very truthful. Been averaging down the last 3 months. While i have said i believe many dispensaries were overpriced in Co. I believe N.M. has been a steal. I love their going deep strategy for both states and believe the 3rd state is coming soon. As far as Buffet I'm a follower and believe buy when their is blood in the street. I've held KO for over 20 yrs. MSI 15 yrs. and many more for 10+ Yrs. My holding period here is for minimum 18+ months and possi
bly years. GLTA.
No problem…..just like you bought assets(shares) at one point that you thought were a good value, the company did the same…..they bought assets they considered a good value….the markets changed and the asset values dropped….they now have purchased more assets at an assumed better value….I guess you could say they cost averaged….it’s now up to us to decide if we want to cost average some more….by the way I always valued your opinions as a straight shooter…..gl
Not a sheep. Haven't sold a share. Have always said I thought many dispensaries especially in Co. was very expensive. Expressing someone's opinion or thoughts I believe is what a forum is for. Anyone thinking their posts have any influence on the pps is fooling themselves.
IPS……can’t argue any of your points here….you would think the company would be on top of these issues…..sounds like someone is sleeping at the wheel….I like how High Tide does it….don’t currently have a position there but might transfer some funds in their direction…..still holding my 100k shares waiting for safe banking.
Multi reply...So guesses? I don't guess. Railrider has a correct count. We both do. Hence update the site, the deck and get these banners under retail in gear with proper numbers, coming soon locations and on a map for the customers to actually find them instead of playing hide and go seek. Another outside collaborator keeps a handy chart as well:
Updated Public Dispensary Count:
— Cannalorian (@Cannalorian) June 7, 2023
- $MMNFF (IL 2nd)
- $VRNOF (PA 17th)
- $VRNOF (FL 67th and 68th)
- $SHWZ (NM 33rd)
- $CCHWF (Exited MO)
- $TCNNF (Exited MA)
- $TCNNF (CA 3 -> 2) https://t.co/Gfy9dTrx9C pic.twitter.com/32odW1hG0N
It feels like this sector is reaching the bottom in sentiment. We're at (or very close to) maximum negativity. You know what Buffet says about that, right?!
If we all had crystal balls investing would be easy….amazing how the flippers turned on JD…..Doc was the first one to turn on the company and now the rest of the sheepeople follow…..smh….lol
The excessive amount paid for several acquisitions in Colorado have always been a concern for me including Starbuds. They paid over $10 Mil per dispensary with incentives for even more.. while many here have been fans of Dye I am not as the monies and earn outs with stock etc. have been excessive imo. While the results have been better than most..
The 64k question will be at what cost of additional dilution. This interest cost alone could crush us if the feds/states don't do something soon to stop or atleast slow down the black market. Anyone who refuses to acknowledge this really does have their head in the sand. I totally agree $30 Mil is extremely excessive and then to think renovation costs. Yep Dye had/has the abilities but very well but currently in position better suited for company st this time.
They truly needed CEO n old CFO to step down which they did and lead the path forward. With that said I still very much appreciate Dye and his vision as without it their would be no company period.
Having looked at the presentation, it looks like Dye screwed up majorly with Emerald Fields acquisition. He paid around 30 million for 2 shops I think.
I hope NK is checking numbers for 3 pending CO acquisitions carefully since they are also quite expensive. We don’t need these acquisitions just to increase the store count.
Latest presentation is dated May 23. They completed Everest with 14 disp last week. The 3 remaining in CO will close soon.
Why do people screw around/ mislead with these bad guesses?
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Meet the "Steve Jobs of Cannabis" and Schwazze's Chief Cultivation Officer, Josh Haupt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s36OIBT4XiQ&t=1s
Star Buds is one of the Most Recognized and Successful Retail Cannabis Operators in North America
Company Projects Pro Forma Revenue for Schwazze and its Two Acquisitions (Mesa Organics and Star Buds) of $95 Million in 2020
Company Expects to Be Cash Flow Positive Beginning in January 2021
Company Anticipates Acquiring Remaining Seven Star Buds Retail Dispensaries in Colorado during the First Quarter 2021
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