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Multi reply...So guesses? I don't guess. Railrider has a correct count. We both do. Hence update the site, the deck and get these banners under retail in gear with proper numbers, coming soon locations and on a map for the customers to actually find them instead of playing hide and go seek. Another outside collaborator keeps a handy chart as well:
Updated Public Dispensary Count:
— Cannalorian (@Cannalorian) June 7, 2023
- $MMNFF (IL 2nd)
- $VRNOF (PA 17th)
- $VRNOF (FL 67th and 68th)
- $SHWZ (NM 33rd)
- $CCHWF (Exited MO)
- $TCNNF (Exited MA)
- $TCNNF (CA 3 -> 2) https://t.co/Gfy9dTrx9C pic.twitter.com/32odW1hG0N
It feels like this sector is reaching the bottom in sentiment. We're at (or very close to) maximum negativity. You know what Buffet says about that, right?!
If we all had crystal balls investing would be easy….amazing how the flippers turned on JD…..Doc was the first one to turn on the company and now the rest of the sheepeople follow…..smh….lol
The excessive amount paid for several acquisitions in Colorado have always been a concern for me including Starbuds. They paid over $10 Mil per dispensary with incentives for even more.. while many here have been fans of Dye I am not as the monies and earn outs with stock etc. have been excessive imo. While the results have been better than most..
The 64k question will be at what cost of additional dilution. This interest cost alone could crush us if the feds/states don't do something soon to stop or atleast slow down the black market. Anyone who refuses to acknowledge this really does have their head in the sand. I totally agree $30 Mil is extremely excessive and then to think renovation costs. Yep Dye had/has the abilities but very well but currently in position better suited for company st this time.
They truly needed CEO n old CFO to step down which they did and lead the path forward. With that said I still very much appreciate Dye and his vision as without it their would be no company period.
Having looked at the presentation, it looks like Dye screwed up majorly with Emerald Fields acquisition. He paid around 30 million for 2 shops I think.
I hope NK is checking numbers for 3 pending CO acquisitions carefully since they are also quite expensive. We don’t need these acquisitions just to increase the store count.
Latest presentation is dated May 23. They completed Everest with 14 disp last week. The 3 remaining in CO will close soon.
Why do people screw around/ mislead with these bad guesses?
Steve, don't do that, the hills have eyes.
Average down would be my advice/opinion.
The entire cannabis sector sucks @zz right now. When times are bad, even the oft overlooked blemishes are magnified. From my perspective, SHWZ is still rock solid, they are positioned better that most in the industry. I get the anxiety, however, I am not holding as many shares as many others on the board, so maybe that makes me less anxious.
Interesting to see what the end game is here. Definitely more going on than meets the eye. No more bullish posts lately from almost anyone.
Should we run for the hills?
Average down?
Me too, Pal. Me too.
Their latest presentation only says 45, i hope theyve got 62 coming soon
While this is flirting with sub-Dollarland some observations as to would these move the needle?
1 whiteboard number set --the same on every page, for every sub banner re people, places and things that add correctly between 2 States
banner on website for Everest locations and link
banner for Standing Akimbo and link (hiring for Colorado Springs listed)
exclusive Heyday, Hoodoo, and PAX brands in NM
June - July -August investor deck drafts stacked and released as executed timely
future investor events listed (incl media last Jul '22)
2 Starbuds Ft Collins coming soon?
1 R Greenleaf Hobbs coming soon?
interactive map of locations w/ all banners for gratify members and investor deck
In any market, being both current and new (especially in an off or down market) is a winning strategy that attracts more eyeballs.
Crawl. Walk. Run.
With the talent as hired this has an unexpected lack of follow through on marketing thyself as a company to the canna investment community and moreover, their to be cross-over and new local customers on a timely basis. What is done at the store level should appear as seamless at the corporate level as well and probably be fed sooner rather than later as an investment thesis on timely growth delivered as part of the winning strategy. Where's the #2 NM? Where's the grown to the 7th largest number of dispensaries nationwide in the last 3-years in that next headline on the investor deck or PR? Winning looks like that. The market needs reminders.
Funny…..a friend of mine who doesn’t invest but smokes a lot said the same thing about the industry but not specifically this company….said this stuff is falling off trucks like crazy….smh
Something re throwing rocks and living in....Positively bad sector related news...re alleged black market interstate commerce (warning video contains explicit language in this fellow's explanation re a civil complaint he filed against $GLASF):
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7063955963799613440/
Is this what good looks like? They have solutions. Why nobody listens to a g-d thing. It could get much, much, much, much, much worse. Hope not. But why hope when that isn't an investment grade option? The disconnect is pointing south it seems.
Those are some scammy looking trades between 3:17 and 3:22 today, sheesh...
While I continue to remain skeptical, I am also hoping that is the case. I too am not sure of the timing...I keep hearing end of June into July. I also heard, even if passed, a House vote isn't expected to come until the end of the year (at the earliest) to as late as February next year.
I guess we will see what happens….my guess is safe gets passed and we all get the trading opportunity we’ve been waiting for….just not sure the exact timing.
Thank you, the price has run into resistance at this level. Will be interesting to see if it can move higher from here with so many shares eligible to be unloaded at $1.20 if they convert some preferreds...
It could happen, lol. But let's get real...with the current DOJ, DEA, FBI, FDA and flock of Fed suits R us this is highly unlikely. So far they run a great interference campaign for those same cartels by inaction with anything noteworthy or very purposefully untimely nor abjectly useful. And I mean the leadership. There are great killers everywhere but no trigger time allowed. At one time I participated in ARSOF/USSOCSOUTH and that was almost anything but worthwhile --different admin, same result...as nobody would consider greenlighting six-countries at once as a solution --even if it was the only solution! The big lie said out loud. Today, we'd have to look inside our own borders and at the enforcers themselves on an insider basis. Yes, we've lost that war, imo. In the meantime, enjoy "June" for whatever different reason. smh. Distract, divide, and look at the g-d shiny.
Have a great weekend!
IPS, you are on point.
https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/al-capone
"In the “roaring twenties,” Al Capone ruled an empire of crime in the Windy City: gambling, prostitution, bootlegging, bribery, narcotics trafficking, robbery, “protection” rackets, and murder. And it seemed that law enforcement couldn’t touch him.
The early Federal Bureau of Investigation would have been happy to join the fight to take Capone down. But they needed a federal crime to hang their case on—and the evidence to back it up. Eventually, that day would come."
The original Scarface was taken down with Federal tax evasion & prohibition charges. The only way we get the cartels out of the cannabis black market is through Federal action on de scheduling, decriminalizing, SAFE, 280e relief, law enforcement and MORE. Cartels are thriving in CA, OK, TX and elsewhere because they rule as Capone did, through bribery, intimidation and murder. This can only be reined in through Federal intervention/law enforcement. Too many people at the state and municipal level are either on the payroll of the cartel or fearful of harm to themselves or loved ones and will not cross the cartels.
In macro related news...TX State level action as to the Cartels? Yup! Why is this tent and ornery camel scenario important?
What of dealers that are the other (and those operating in TX of course) states' black market for controlled substances with no licenses, compliance, safety oversight, nor taxes paid? In that light, wouldn't they also be fairly considered shortly as domestic terrorists despite the decriminalization for mere possession? An "aha!" moment may soon follow in TX and other states as a means of dealing with the illicit market. Harsh penalties have killed off moonshine and despite some growth there forecast for the next ten years...its still well under $1B (est $314.5MMin 2023 compared to legal sales estimate of $16.8B by '24) to a larger degree, so it follows that...with legalization comes punitive regulation for those who can't or refuse to follow directions like the cartels and will include the unfriendly domestic Mom & Pops:
https://www.breitbart.com/border/2023/06/09/texas-designates-drug-cartels-as-foreign-terrorist-organizations/
Tax evasion probably taken to the next harshest level of prosecution with the removal of 280(E) for lawful ops...but by individual States and Feds!
Yup it is…..when JD was buying last year we hit the low 2’s…..I think the conversion price was $1.20 at that time also.
Isn't $1.20 the original preferred stock conversion price? May be hard to get over that...
My guess is the buyer took a breather but will be back:)
Volume has shrunk to almost nothing today.
Copied and Paste a little banter on the tweet i posted for perspective
Don Murphy
@donmurphy12a
Good News! Moved a GOP Senator from ‘Gettable’ to the YES column and ‘Soon’ on #SAFEBanking means Yes. So relax and have a great weekend.
The_Wolf_Of_CarsonStreet
@alexborlowski
·
34m
Hi Don, could you care to elaborate a little bit on what you exactly mean when you say that no bank bill has been marked up in several years? What is the significance of this and how does this translate into tangible progress?
Don Murphy
@donmurphy12a
·
15m
Sure. It’s been so long since the Senate Banking Committee has moved a bill to the floor that no one (including members) can remember when it last happened. The point is that #SAFEBanking has risen to such a priority that it is one of the 1st to be included in a very short list.
Copied and Paste a little banter on the tweet i posted for perspective
Don Murphy
@donmurphy12a
Good News! Moved a GOP Senator from ‘Gettable’ to the YES column and ‘Soon’ on #SAFEBanking means Yes. So relax and have a great weekend.
The_Wolf_Of_CarsonStreet
@alexborlowski
·
34m
Hi Don, could you care to elaborate a little bit on what you exactly mean when you say that no bank bill has been marked up in several years? What is the significance of this and how does this translate into tangible progress?
Don Murphy
@donmurphy12a
·
15m
Sure. It’s been so long since the Senate Banking Committee has moved a bill to the floor that no one (including members) can remember when it last happened. The point is that #SAFEBanking has risen to such a priority that it is one of the 1st to be included in a very short list.
Good News! Moved a GOP Senator from ‘Gettable’ to the YES column and ‘Soon’ on #SAFEBanking means Yes. So relax and have a great weekend. pic.twitter.com/jNsv5PnovJ
— Don Murphy (@donmurphy12a) June 8, 2023
it's nice to see which stocks are running, shwz, curlf, while the shine has come off the bigger MSOs a bit. Perhaps a turning point is occurring in the control the large MSOs have held?
Nice spike up to 1.24, must have cleaned out all those .12s and boom
I can and will wait. Well thought out with factual info. Again thanks for what you add to this board. In fact thanks to everyone here even when we disagree. It's like family here.
It is nice to see that Stanley is coming around...I know that I have been focused on margins, but I also take market of operation into the fold. I don't consider 50% gross margin and 30% EBITDA as a success if your operation is in Florida or some other limited licensed market.
Jeff Bezos famously said, “Your margin is my opportunity.”
The margins that SHWZ is putting up in Colorado and New Mexico, two highly competitive states, should suggest that the 'top-MSOs' should be flocking to those markets of operations, since an existing (smaller) operator is pulling numbers higher than they are. IMO investors need to be asking themselves why aren't they? I mean...we know. We know they they are not nearly as efficient so they have to chase the markets where they are getting a ridiculous return -- while also crying about cost compression and increased competition.
For example: Trulieve recently PRed that it would be closing shop in CA and MA markets. CA was like one location, so I think that made sense. MA, on the other hand, was 3 stores and a large grow. Calling it 'optimization efforts to preserve cash and improve financial performance'...you know...the positive spin investors get behind. Per a local MA article, cost compression is to blame (I dont share this opinion)...but indicated that the market dropped from $400/oz in early 2021 to around $171/oz today.
Looks depressing...THAT IS UNTIL YOU REALIZE...SHWZ is pulling a better gross and EBITDA margins while at the same time the Colorado Dept of Revenue announced average market price for retail bud at $649/lbs -- PER POUND!
There is obviously something to be said about a 'go-deep' strategy!!!
If these operators are bailing from markets where they are getting $2700+/lbs, truly due to 'cost compression'...I don't think that they will EVER reach a point of "optimization efforts" that will make them a profitable operator if the federal govt ever decides to legalize cannabis and cannabis becomes a commodity and normalizes (nationally) around have the current MA value. We just need investors to quit latching onto the #MSOGang teat...to wake up and use their head...and to think further down the line if/when all of these catalysts come to fruition. To see that national square footage (scale) is not necessarily a target for alcohol, tobacco, pharma, etc. The biggest is not necessarily the best. That there are operators capable of producing in (extremely) challenging environments with proof of scalability. IMO, it is this type of company that, if and when the time comes, the larger buyer/industries will focus on. Now the hard part...waiting for proof of concept.
No matter how off the analysts predictions have been , it still is nice to get some good press every once in a while . I know ,I know ,,,,Its confirmation bias but hey something , anything is a small " Beacon Of light" at the end of this Mercurial Journey
Across the board the sector is lighting up.
Nice buying interest today.
Stanley said Schwazze is coming off a strong first quarter where top and bottom lines beat his forecasts, and he said SHWZ is showing EBITDA margins that rank very high compared to the rest of the US cannabis space. The analyst said Schwazze is likely to counter ongoing price pressure by leveraging margin expansion opportunities like centralized buying and distribution, automated manufacturing and increased sales of house brands.
“Given SHWZ operates in two intensely competitive states that other operators have largely avoided/exited, we view Schwazze’s adjusted EBITDA margins as particularly impressive,” he said.
https://www.cantechletter.com/2023/06/schwazze-is-a-buy-in-cannabis-stocks-says-beacon/#
I appreciate the well detailed and thoughtful response. You and just about anyone on this board are much more skilled at the investing & trading game then I am, so I could not imagine the many possibilities that you bring to light. When I think of the cannabis sector in the summer, it reminds me of talking baseball in the winter, there are a lot of what ifs and maybes. Perhaps similar to hot stove baseball, our conversations in this drought are akin to cold box cannabis. With the sector in the crapper for so long, all we can hang on to is speculation. All ideas are plausible, but a simple solution might be for SHWZ to take destiny in their own hands and develop some home-grown IR. It has been said that reality is 99% perception so your point to bring this beef forward is reality.
Best regards.
I appreciate you postings , i know everyone is hoping for the best and there are lots of speculative ideas and scenarios . Keep up the factual, rational posting's about the progress being made by SHWZ . Its hard to be optimistic and such a tattered industry I've lost on every investment in the last 2 yrs , Its exhausting . My last and only hope is SHWZ . I'm not looking at JD as a departure , I'm pretty sure this was the way this was always going to be, Nirup Krishnamurthy as the Workhorse in the relationship. My hope is they continue with the mission and don't get disgusted with the GOVT screwing with everybody and walk away.
No one cares until safe passes….just like no one cared about JD leaving….it is what it is.
$SHWZ's 62-dispensaries in sight (while Tiers what's an I or a II in today's spin of twisted gibberish closing up in limited license ops like NY, MA, & CA based on that superior social equity making their inability to scale completely unprofitable? (another #Msogang Generational Opportunity?)
The promotion of a winning differentiated strategy should make its way into the next PR's and answer the question as to why they are successfully scaling and what real expansion looks like in highly competitive markets over a very compressed and challenging period of time. The despite the macro market and a lack of policy...Hint hint can they say their strategy is an example of an actual hedge that is working with a launch into another market expected within the next year as well? Dunno. It's a great story. But it has to be communicated further. The prior words and actual deeds are there.
CO @ 27 completed +2 Standing Akimbo remaining (and grand opening of 2 Smokey's as re-bannered Star*Buds; thus 4 left to open) and NM @ 32 + 1 Hobbs' grand opening
Progress nonetheless!
A little over a month since the announcement regarding acquiring Everest to close. That's nice to see.
That is probably good to just keep quiet and be pro business and have a diverse work culture. Nuff said.
Received confirmation that SHWZ is no longer is participating in the ONE Colorado initiative.
Yeppers, kinda like all that talk about going to Oklahoma was a few months back. Bored posters just making up shlt and throwing it out there to fire up the troops, lol.
Insiders own mostly preferred stock and under IPS only the o/s would receive this if I'm understanding. Once they converted they would get this but the interest would stop. Really mute point as it's not goin happen.
Dividend? Enrich the insiders who are majority shareholders even more than they are already getting? Sheesh
Thank you for your points as taken. It seems the company has updated the website as to key leaders and the BOD. I don't see Julie Suntrup the CMO anywhere. Likewise, while the PR stated the incoming CFO would be responsible for IR, I agree that would likely fall to a dedicated slot reporting to him. Farmed out is inefficient as the website is mostly kept current. Back to a whiteboard and one set of numbers for everyone to see as is current/projected. Not five bits of this and somehow missing that. This is a premier operation to suggest that can't do both is a bit troubling (IR and a dividend).
I don't think there would be a time that they'd have to claw back or reduce a dividend as they can't make money on a GAAP basis now, why expect they will ever? Doc has pointed out the cash being bled out for preferred and interest payments, so again, show your investors some love that costs almost nothing like any promotion they do already in the sale of product. It's part of the enticement and builds repeat business. The wash sale rule would discourage what damacon1 has suggested. The fact that it would increase liquidity would be welcome and I don't see it as a gimmick when there isn't but perhaps a single Tier I that could possibly do the same thing either because of inefficiency (still) or their ridiculous share structure See Tier II etc). GTIF might be the only company capable of delivering such a bonus and would be lauded as the leader.
The amount of cash required for this as a takeaway from expansion is simply insignificant and likely bonused as marketing metrics of A/EBIDA/TA whatever are constantly met or repriced which we know is BS. Well, the same would be true of those shares of common which are handed out to their employees or cash as they do currently. Revs are going to be North of $170MM and South of $220MM this year. Either number is an increase from '22's $159MM. The idea of a having to make a cut or pullback is remote only if the financing cannot be renegotiated when larger sums are coming due in the out years, then, hand the keys off to the new owners. Threat as remote or unlikely? In terms of social equity...I hate that phraseology, the only class of "investors" making money in this company (a) work there as in earn an income (b) loaned them money (which is secured and pays high single or low double digits interest) (c) the government. Whereas the investors here have watched their capital investment depreciate by well over half since the company announced it remade itself into a retail op. And one asks why shares of it and the rest are in the crapper? Aren't these stupid cash making operations? The process of getting out starts with what they can do to fix themselves and perception raised by action is a strong method when properly explained, promoted, and executed by great stewards of capital. I know, I know...pat answer: impossible because nobody does that.
The march towards legalization continues!
https://www.leafly.com/news/politics/these-states-could-legalize-marijuana-next-in-2023
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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/schwazze/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Schwazze/
Meet the "Steve Jobs of Cannabis" and Schwazze's Chief Cultivation Officer, Josh Haupt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s36OIBT4XiQ&t=1s
Star Buds is one of the Most Recognized and Successful Retail Cannabis Operators in North America
Company Projects Pro Forma Revenue for Schwazze and its Two Acquisitions (Mesa Organics and Star Buds) of $95 Million in 2020
Company Expects to Be Cash Flow Positive Beginning in January 2021
Company Anticipates Acquiring Remaining Seven Star Buds Retail Dispensaries in Colorado during the First Quarter 2021
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