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JBII chart comparison with Light crude oil futures (CL)
Ok, here we go. Top chart is oil futures. Bottom chart JBII. I think the comments on the charts speak for themselves, but I'll add a little more here. The arrows match on each chart, give or take a couple days for the most part, starting with arrow #4. From arrow #6 to arrow #10, JBII traded with more strength, but it still moved similarly up & down with the oil contract. From arrow #10, JBII made a climax move to 4.20 while the oil contract took a dump. And, now that I look at it, JBII traded much stronger than oil from arrow #4 on to #10. After the climax move that occurred right after arrow #10, JBII has essentially been catching up with the drop that oil took which started at arrow #4 on the CL chart.
As for what happens next, I'd say that it's likely JBII has caught up with the drop oil had and that today may prove out to be the climax bottom move of this decline. If the 1.76 low from today doesn't hold, then we're looking at the 200ma on the daily chart at 1.52. I'm not so familiar with JBII's trading at this time that I feel comfortable predicting what could happen, but I'll throw out a couple simple scenarios...
If there are shorts here, (and I believe there are), and they are looking to cover, then watch for a gap down open, a move down to the 200ma and likely below to around 1.47 in order to scare out desperate longs, and then a strong bounce from there back above the 200 ma and back above $2.
If the longs aren't crapping themselves in fear after they look at the stock price tonight, and instead respond with excitement and wire funds into their brokerage accounts tomorrow, then we'll likely gap up at the open. I personally would rather see a small gap down to flat open, then we don't have to deal with the psychology that "all gaps get filled" on a gap up in the morning. If we do gap up, then let it be a small one that gets filled quickly and let's get on with things. I'll go nuts if we gap up tomorrow and don't fill because the JBII board will likely fill up with the usual BS debates about how all gaps get filled. (Most of them do, but not all of them do. It depends upon the fundamentals).
Anywho, I'd like to see a flat open, (indicating we had a double bottom today on the interval charts), or gap down to maybe 1.60 - 1.47 tomorrow and then reverse back up on strong volume to >$2.20 in short order, like in the first couple hours of trading. This will be a good sign that we've had our climax lows and can start looking up again. (The reason for a move back above $2.20 regardless of how low we go tomorrow is because it is the 50% point of today's drop. The sooner and the higher we get above that the prettier this chart is going to start looking, imo.
Yea I like choice #1 but was watching the chart carefully to see about the 200MA at 1.51 also.
Yes, this was quite a gift! Tomorrow could be interesting. Gap up above 1.97 and never come back, or gap/sell down to the 200ma at 1.51? I like choice #1 better, personally, but #2 would be ok too. I'll just have to buy more.
Picked up JBII today. Liked the bear raid the MM's tried to pull and bring the price down. HDSN MM especially was on the ask playing games most of the day.
Nice pick ups Rich. Lets see where they go.
BOT 100 JBII Stock 1.89 13:37:52 1.00
BOT 1,000 JBII Stock 1.94 13:45:16 5.00
BOT 700 JBII Stock 1.94 13:45:32 3.50
BOT 1,500 JBII Stock 2.00 12:57:45 7.50
BOT 2,700 JBII Stock 2.00 12:57:53 13.50
BOT 500 JBII Stock 1.87 13:04:40 2.50
BOT 500 JBII Stock 1.85 13:04:46 2.50
BOT 1,500 JBII Stock 1.86 13:05:11 7.50
BOT 1,500 JBII Stock 1.80 13:06:03 7.50
BOT 49,000 MDMN Stock 0.1321 15:55:14
BOT 41,500 MDMN Stock 0.1321 15:55:35
BOT 9,500 MDMN Stock 0.1321 15:57:31
BOT 1,900 JBII Stock 2.550 13:03:45
BOT 1,000 JBII Stock 2.37 14:23:54
Thanks Harold.
Hi Rich,
Here's probably the best compilation of DD on JBII for those of your friends interested.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=65138474
Hiya Doog. Have a great weekend!
Doog welcome glad to have you around!
Hola TR just board marked this forum enjoy your weekend and talk to ya next week cheers
QRM - Bought more @ 6.12 today and will continue buying if we go lower. Gifts imo. Watching to add to CDCH as well.
A close above 6.46 today is bullish imo. The higher above 6.46 the more bullish.
QRM... Bought more here at 6.46. Watching 6.31, 6.07 and 5.90 if it moves lower.
Hello All glad to be around! Time to make even more $$$
My MDMN purchases so far this week...
BOT 70,000 MDMN Stock 0.1419 JUN 20 14:11:06
BOT 7,650 MDMN Stock 0.1420 JUN 20 14:11:36
BOT 10,000 MDMN Stock 0.1420 JUN 20 14:13:45
BOT 10,000 MDMN Stock 0.1420 JUN 20 14:14:56
BOT 60,000 MDMN Stock 0.1397 JUN 20 15:06:08
BOT 1,000 MDMN Stock 0.1406 JUN 20 15:16:20
BOT 39,000 MDMN Stock 0.1429 JUN 20 15:38:57
BOT 12,000 MDMN Stock 0.1420 JUN 21 11:24:19
BOT 38,000 MDMN Stock 0.1450 JUN 21 15:05:56
BOT 50,000 MDMN Stock 0.1439 JUN 21 15:53:54
BOT 10,000 MDMN Stock 0.1405 12:05:02
BOT 5,000 MDMN Stock 0.1405 12:06:00
BOT 5,000 MDMN Stock 0.1420 12:18:05
BOT 10,000 MDMN Stock 0.1400 13:43:53
BOT 10,000 MDMN Stock 0.1400 13:45:01
BOT 10,000 MDMN Stock 0.1400 13:45:15
BOT 50,000 MDMN Stock .140 14:59:29
Thanks Harold. I do alright sometimes.
No problem Rich. A great call on QRM in the low 5.00 btw. Thanks!
I posted on the MDMN board a week or two ago that I would quit posting on the MDMN & CDCH boards here if we did not get the JV news by June 21. So, from here on, if I have anything to post about either stock I will do so here.
Rich
QRM
This rise today is the result of a well established newsletter that has been very bullish on this stock for several years reaffirming a buy recommendation today.
I wouldn't be surprised if there was a retracement from here, perhaps a visit to the top of the 200ma around 5.75 as we are short-term overbought, but I think it's safe to say that the bottom is now in.
I took some profits at the 200ma on the way up, (obviously missing a good chunk of the move, but I don't cry over money not made), but I still have a nice position for the long haul.
in FCSC $1.07 - holding through 6/22 PDUFA. may average up on any bear raids
MDMN. been tracking this one. so was interesting to find it as I looked through posts here.
not sure how i found this board ;)
What are you basing your optimism on?
TIA
You too Harold.
I'm ready as are quite a few others. A lot to make up for from 2010. Nothing a little JV can't take care of. There will be quite a few people becoming whole again. Thank you for your info on QRM and REE.
Heading off for a graduation shortly. Have a great weekend Rich.
Sorry to leave ya hangin EB. I don't know how permanent it will be but I'll stick around for a while. Depends upon what kind of company we get. You know, because we're such dishonest, slimeball pumpers/manipulators. Speaking of which, are you ready for the big MDMN/CDCH pump to go into full swing?
It's about time you began posting here again. Welcome back. I've had a tough time keeping up with the posts here, lol.
Another rare earth stock I intend to buy in the near future is REE.
Long CDCH. Long term hold with a .06791 basis.
Long MDMN. One position @ .069 and another account @ .131.
Building a position in QRM again. Long @ $5.38. This is a long-term investment for me that I intend to add to.
Anyone interested in some excellent, unabashed DD and T/A for my two favorite stocks, take a look at my profile. That's where you'll find me posting charts
U.S. Called Vulnerable to Rare Earth Shortages
KEITH BRADSHER, On Wednesday December 15, 2010, 3:07 am EST
HONG KONG — The United States is too reliant on China for minerals crucial to new clean energy technologies, making the American economy vulnerable to shortages of materials needed for a range of green products — from compact fluorescent light bulbs to electric cars to giant wind turbines.
So warns a detailed report to be released on Wednesday morning by the United States Energy Department. The report, which predicts that it could take 15 years to break American dependence on Chinese supplies, calls for the nation to increase research and expand diplomatic contacts to find alternative sources, and to develop ways to recycle the minerals or replace them with other materials.
At least 96 percent of the most crucial types of the so-called rare earth minerals are now produced in China, and Beijing has wielded various export controls to limit the minerals’ supply to other countries while favoring its own manufacturers that use them.
“The availability of a number of these materials is at risk due to their location, vulnerability to supply disruptions and lack of suitable substitutes,” the report says, which also mentions some concerns about a few other minerals imported from elsewhere, such as cobalt from the Congo.
The Energy Department report is being released the same morning that cabinet officials from China and the United States will meet in Washington to discuss economic and commercial issues.
While no detailed agenda has been released, the talks are expected to include American objections to China’s tightening restrictions on rare earth exports — like a two-month halt this autumn on shipments to Japan, and a shorter-lived slowdown of exports to the United States and Europe.
And on Tuesday, China’s finance ministry announced on its Web site, and the official Xinhua news agency later reported as well, that China plans to increase its export taxes on some rare earths next year. The ministry did not say how much the taxes would increase. Although World Trade Organization rules ban export taxes, China has imposed them on rare earths for the last four years.
David Sandalow, the assistant secretary of energy for policy and international affairs, who oversaw preparation of the Energy Department report, said in a telephone interview that the timing of the report’s release and the American-China cabinet meetings was coincidental.
But the report reflects an emerging view within the American government that domestic sources of rare earths are needed, in addition to suppliers in many other countries, to ensure the viability of clean energy manufacturing in the United States.
“We can build a new industry and put our clean energy future on a sound footing, creating many new jobs in the process,” Mr. Sandalow said.
Still, the report presents a fairly gloomy assessment of the United States’ ability to wean itself from Chinese imports. For as long as the next 15 years, the supplies of at least five minerals that come almost exclusively from China will remain as vulnerable to disruption as they are absolutely vital to the manufacture of small yet powerful electric motors, energy-efficient compact fluorescent bulbs and other clean energy technologies, the report said.
The five minerals are medium and heavy rare earth elements of which China mines an estimated 96 percent to 99.8 percent of the world’s supply: dysprosium, terbium, neodymium, europium and yttrium.
China also increasingly dominates the manufacture of clean energy technologies that require such minerals, including the production of million-dollar wind turbines. Chinese export restrictions have added up to $40 a pound to world prices, which makes a big difference particularly for some of the less expensive rare earths, like lanthanum, that sell for several dollars a pound in China.
That is among the reasons, along with cheap labor and extensive Chinese government subsidies, that many clean energy manufacturers have found it cheaper to shift production to China.
Mr. Sandalow said that wind turbine manufacturers were capable of building very large turbines without rare earths. But using rare earths could reduce the per megawatt cost of wind energy and improve its competitiveness through savings on other materials, like steel and copper.
He cautioned that the United States had been putting far fewer resources than China into exploring ways to use the powerful magnetic and other properties of rare earths.
“There are thousands of rare earth researchers in China and dozens in the United States, and that underscores both the challenge and the opportunity,” he said. “Their expertise in this area is significant.”
China’s finance ministry, in announcing plans to raise export taxes on some rare earths, did not indicate which minerals might be affected.
Since 2006, China has imposed an export tax of 15 percent on light rare earths like lanthanum and cerium, which are needed for oil refining and glass manufacturing, and 25 percent on heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium.
China mines about 92 percent of the world’s light rare earths.
Dysprosium, which helps rare earth magnets preserve their magnetism at high temperatures, is mined almost exclusively in southern China and sells for $95 a pound in China and $135 a pound outside, including the export tax.
Dysprosium has emerged as the mineral most vital to clean energy industries yet most vulnerable to supply disruptions, the report said.
Dudley Kingsnorth, a prominent rare earth mining consultant in Perth, Australia, said he agreed that a dysprosium shortage was likely. He added that he expected that a rare earth shortage would slow the overall adoption of new rare earth technologies by clean energy industries for at least the next five years.
American and Japanese officials have said that they might file a legal challenge at the World Trade Organization to China’s taxes on rare earth exports, as well as on quotas that China imposes on rare earth exports.
Until this autumn, Chinese officials had portrayed their rare earth policies as an effort to force high-tech companies to move their factories to China and retain supplies for domestic industries. The Chinese government has recently shifted to describing the export restrictions as an environmental measure, noting that extracting and processing the minerals can be a highly toxic process that has also resulted in leaks of radioactive mining waste into the groundwater in northern China.
But while W.T.O. rules allow export restrictions for environmental reasons, that is only if a country also restricts domestic consumption, which China has not done.
Demand for rare earths and China’s virtual chokehold on supplies have prompted some overseas companies to enter, or re-enter, the field.
Molycorp, an American company that in August made an initial public offering of its shares on the New York Stock Exchange, plans to open in 2012 a large rare earth mine at Mountain Pass, Calif., that closed in 2002 after prices were undercut by Chinese competitors. Molycorp announced on Monday that it had received the last of the construction permits needed to proceed.
The Lynas Corporation of Australia plans to open at the end of next year a large rare earths mine at Mount Weld, Australia.
But both the Molycorp and Lynas mines will produce mostly light rare earths and relatively little of the medium and heavy rare earths needed for magnets and other significant clean energy applications.
Dozens of small mining companies hope to open new mines in the United States and elsewhere that could tap reserves of medium and heavy rare earths. But these small companies face formidable legal, financial, marketing and management obstacles, the Energy Department report said.
As of today I am done with Ihub for good. I wish all the honest, impeccable people with integrity who are trying to make some honest money here the very best in your lives!
I happened to be watching CBS news tonight. I never watch the news but it was on and I was shocked at what I saw. They actually did an intelligent report on the national debt and the potential trouble that is coming. I'd say that's a sign that Americans are beginning to be warned of/prepared for harder times.
The bottom of the silver drop may be at hand today/overnight/tomorrow. We're at trend line support just above the 20ema on the daily chart of SI futures. Wouldn't surprise me if we drop below this to the $25 area and maybe into the high $24 range before the bounce comes.
Don't leave us Rich! I'm just starting to learn about Futures.
B URRE @ 1.20 this morning. Had a gtc order set that I forgot about, but I think long term the stock will do well.
B more QRM.V (QSURD) @ 4.58 Canadian today. I'll add if it goes lower to the 4.00 - 4.25 range.
You mean the emails you send me of hotties in their birthday suits and our conversations about how it sucks that we're too old for them anymore???
Bummer Rich! But we'll continue with our daily emails and phone calls anyway.
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