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Cleared out of CECO for a $800 8% gain
Filled Sell 400 CECO Limit 7.86 -- -- 09:42:35 11/04/11
Order No. 8152127239 Career Education Corp Com Entered:09:30:57 11/04/11 Reuse
Filled Sell 900 CECO Limit 7.86 -- -- 09:42:35 11/04/11
I think semp read "understanding options" by micheal cincaid spelling may be wrong, been drinking cocktails n watching xfactor lol
i suggest to go out 4-5months to get the feel of how they move. greeks will come into play which is another chapter lol. there are many books to check out on options
I was thinking buying jan or feb calls...
whatever you do, dont touch any weeklies even if you had losing's $$$. maybe way in the future when you get more comfortable.
Remember to not get leveraged too far.
If you have $10K in you account to invest only use a small portion to buy options. Do not put up the whole 10K on Options.
Insider
I think I may be ready to do my first option play... oooo boyyyyy!
LNKD, contemplated on buying weekly 82.50 puts at close (spread was 5 x 5.40) didn't pull the trigger, ug...
I don't love this company, it is a POS, but it should have at least a 5% bounce
you and these pos school plays lmao
Just sold my 6k of ANW for 8% gain, easy money
Picked up some CECO for a small bounce, it is a POS, but so far outside the bollie
Filled Buy 100 CECO Limit 7.279 -- -- 14:59:50 11/03/11
Order No. 8149629835 Career Education Corp Com Entered:14:59:48 11/03/11 Reuse
Filled Buy 100 CECO Limit 7.279 -- -- 14:59:50 11/03/11
Order No. 8149629835 Career Education Corp Com Entered:14:59:48 11/03/11
Filled Buy 100 CECO Limit 7.279 -- -- 14:59:49 11/03/11
Order No. 8149629835 Career Education Corp Com Entered:14:59:48 11/03/11
Filled Buy 500 CECO Limit 7.28 -- -- 14:59:49 11/03/11
Order No. 8149629835 Career Education Corp Com Entered:14:59:48 11/03/11
Filled Buy 100 CECO Limit 7.279 -- -- 14:59:49 11/03/11
Order No. 8149629835 Career Education Corp Com Entered:14:59:48 11/03/11
Filled Buy 400 CECO Limit 7.28 -- -- 14:59:49 11/03/11
exaclty!! my last three trades have been $1k or less actually. tsla was 5@$1 so hopefully i salvage $100 out of the loss. i was avgeraging around $4k-$5k a play prior to the recent turnaround. you have your good weeks and your bad. you make very valid points. appreciate it!
It is like a shooter in Basketball. You need to keep shooting. Maybe you should make some smaller trades until you get back into your zone. Like a BB player steping up to the Free Throw line to hit a few easy ones
You were killing it for awhile there
Insider
not looking good on these tomorrow. im in a bit of a slump...
thnx insider!
Good Luck. Make some bank
Insider
picked up 6k worth of ANW for a bounce, tried to get 10k, but no sellers at $4.69
bought a few TSLA nov$27 puts @ a buck. should be reporting some shaky #s AH. gl
I am glad I closed out of FFIV puts at close yesterday, whew, looks like it is going to blow up today
OUR OCTOBER MICRO INSIDER PICS / RESULTS
The purpose of showing all the picks that meet our trading matrix is to show how we trade. Our software picks up hundreds of insider buys, we look at each one, and only post the ones that meet our trading matrix. Actually some of the lottos we post we only buy small amounts of, because we like to stay will big board stuff. You can do your own calculations. Obviously, we are posting the high price and it is impossible to sell at the high, but as you can see almost all of them had a 5%-10%-15%-20% gain with-in a small amount of time, and the ones that didn't do anything you can sell, hold, sell some of the postion for a very minimal loss. I like to put between $10,000 to $20,000 in each one (except lottos), and if you do the math, pays very well, and I still manage my company and Insider still does his normal job (and guess what, we are not tagged as daytraders). We are able to do this on our cell phones basically. If I had any advise, it would be to not get an emotional tie and do not get hung up on message board jargon. A lot of these stocks don't make money, maybe you wouldn't normally buy them. But guess what, we are getting what is considered positive news once it is recorded with the SEC, and you can usually over 75% of the time, based on our statistics, catch a 5%-10%-15%-20% gain with-in 5 to 15 trading days!!
AFTER AN AVERAGE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, WE HAD ONLY FOUR PLAYS IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, BUT ALL WERE AWESOME. IT IS TYPICAL IN EARNINGS MONTHS TO HAVE SLOWER INSIDER BUYING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE VOLITILITY IN THE MARKETS DUE TO THE EUROPE FINANCIAL CRISIS.
WINNERS HAVE A 10% GAIN POTENTIAL / NEUTRALS HAVE A 5% GAIN POTENTIAL / LOSERS DID NOT HAVE A 5% RETURN.
Remember, if Insider or I post the pick, it has made our software matrix strick guidelines, and we actually buy the stock when we post, no pump n dump, no front-loading, etc. Everybody has the same chance of success as us. The bottom line is these numbers report are actual numbers, find your sweetspot, make profitable trades, cut losses early (but give them at least 5 to 10 trading days at a minimum to start their move), you will be successful! TAKE NOTE TO THE % OF THE LOSERS VERSUS THE GAINS OF THE WINNERS.
THIS IS ALL MY OPINION AND MY TRADING STRATEGY, DO WITH IT WHAT YOU WANT. I AM NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR, WE ARE JUST HELPING OTHERS BY SHOWING WHAT WE DO!
WINNERS
KEYW--This was alerted on 10/03/11 and was trading at $6.91. The stock traded for a high of the month on 10/28/11 at $9.36 (a 35.5% increase). The closing price October 31st was $8.40 (a 21.6% increase).
AMSC--This was alerted on 10/04/11 and was trading at $3.41. The stock traded for a high of the month on 10/28/11 at $4.79 (a 40.5% increase). The closing price October 31st was $4.36 (a 27.9% increase).
ALJ--This was alerted on 10/04/11 and was trading at $5.34. The stock traded for a high of the month on 10/28/11 at $8.31 (a 55.6% increase). The closing price October 31st was $7.60 (a 42.3% increase).
NBIX--This was alerted on 10/12/11 and was trading at $6.03. The stock traded for a high of the month on 10/28/11 at $6.75 (a 11.9% increase). The closing price October 31st was $6.26 (a 3.8% increase). It should be noted that NBIX hit a high of $7.29 on 11/01/11 which is a 20.9% increase.
As you can see, all plays hit their high of the month on 10/28/11; however, all of them also hit at least 10% prior to that huge spike in the market on those days, so these statistics reflect the high of the month and the closing price of the month, there were multiple opportunities to make a good trade throughout the month on all the plays.
NEUTRAL (COULD OF MADE OR LOST / NOT GREAT NOT BAD)
WE HAD NO NEUTRUAL PLAYS IN OCTOBER
LOSERS
WE HAD NO LOSING PLAYS IN OCTOBER
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http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67607372
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ALL OF OUR INSIDER DATA COMES FROM WWW.SCUMFISH.COM
I am so sick of Europe, lol, but I will say, that it is making for a lot of volitility, lol
might be time to load puts again lol. im too young for ulcers lol
Take it to the bank
Out of SPY puts, huge play....
Out of VXX for a huge gain, lmfao!!
Wow, the VXX is up to 44.50, lol, I have $37 calls, lol
good call bro. leave it to the italians to cause drama again.
Sold 1/3 spy Puts at that nice dip
Sold 1/2 VXX calls just now, nice little spike!
SPY Puts & VXX Calls up nicely today!
A good post reply on the Seeking Alpha site
Posted by joro_ianev
There are two HUGE flaws in your analysis. First, you are viewing supply as static -- i.e. the supply lost in Thailand will NOT be picked up by other parts of the world. That will be hardly the case. I can guarantee you that as I type this new equipment is being assembled to be located in WDC, STX, Hitachi, Samsung and Toshiba factories. Also, anybody in the supply chain that wasn't on a 24/7 schedule is now on it. As an example, take a look at the minimal impact the earthquake in Japan had on the technology companies. The recovery in the supply chain occured so quickly that the impact of the quake was almost nil.
Second flaw relates to HDD pricing. Do some digging on the web and you will see prices up anywhere from 10%-100%. Those 50 mln drives STX sells will bring in substantially higher revenues this quarter than the 52 mln brought last quarter. And every dollar from higher ASP is a dollar that flows straight to net income. Now, I fully expect the upstream suppliers to charge more for their components, so it won't be a 100% flow through from sales to net income, but I do believe it will be >50% impact (i.e. every $1 in higher ASP is >$0.5 in higher Net Income, the remainder going to pay for higher expenses).
Should we buy some $30 leap puts (jan 2013) on WDC???? $7 bucks each, $4 premium....., could be pretty good
Thailand Flooding Will Ravage Tech Earnings Into 2012
Here is a great article on the flooding in Thailand
Insider
http://seekingalpha.com/article/301873-thailand-flooding-will-ravage-tech-earnings-into-2012
Get ready for a deluge of earnings warnings.
This week, the tragic flooding in Thailand became a headline item in the world of technology. As I write this, hundreds have died, 14,000 factories are shuttered, and an area the size Connecticut is submerged. Making matters worse, in Bangkok scattered showers are forecast for most of the coming week.
Hard drive maker Western Digital (WDC) became one of the poster children of the disaster when it lowered Q4 expectations, from Wall Street’s expectation of $2.6B in revenue to a range of $1.05-1.25B. (That is not a typo.) WDC’s revenue will likely be 50% of what was expected just a week ago. The situation does not figure to get better anytime soon. Many companies operating in the region, including Honda (HMC) and Fabrinet (FN) came out over the weekend and stated that operations will be suspended at least through year-end. The read-through is that the operations of most every company in the region will be stalled through year-end.
In addition to flood levels, which have not improved meaningfully, the country's utilities and transportation infrastructure is severly hobbled. Even when the water recedes enough for workers to get to work (6 weeks, according to current government estimates), people won't have a means of getting there, because most vehicles have been rendered unusable.
As it relates to Western Digital, the impact reaches far beyond the hard disk drive industry. In fact, my company (Pipeline Data, LLC) forecasts that the implications will be very damaging for most of the tech sector. Before I explain, let’s start with the basics.
According to WDC, 170 million HDDs will be needed to fulfill worldwide demand in Q4; Seagate (STX) believes the number is 180 million. Yet, based on Pipeline Data’s latest estimate, only 110 million will be available. This is because many of the world’s HDD component makers are located in flooded regions. In other words, even Seagate, whose facilities were not flooded, will not be able to procure enough parts to make all the HDDs it could under normal circumstances. The company confirmed this on its call, saying that it will only produce 40-50 million HDDs in Q1, much lower than its 60 million capacity.
As a result, any company that requires hard drives or sells hard drive components should be preparing to suffer a significant shortage in production, orders, or both. In most cases, this will translate into a significant reduction in revenue. Unfortunately, we believe that the impact on Q1 is likely to be even worse than Q4.
The reason is simple. First of all, we are already three weeks into Q4. More importantly, WDC and STX have already stated that floods will hurt production for several quarters. What they didn’t say is that several weeks of HDDs and components supplies existed in the supply chain and inventory prior to this disaster. In aggregate, this is perhaps enough to cover half of this quarter’s 170-180 million unit demand. In addition, the supply of components from outside of Thailand will enable several more weeks of production. All of this feeds into our 110 million unit projection for Q4 and triangulates well with guidance provided by WDC and STX.
Here’s the problem. As we enter Q1, the inventory of HDDs and flood-affected components will be gone. Virtually 100% of the industry’s HDD supply hinge on the weakest link in the chain – the component in shortest supply. At this point, the #1 candidate is hard drive motors. 70-80% of the world’s supply is made by Nidec, which has been crippled by the floods and does not carry inventory in its distribution channel. The company is scrambling to divert production to its locations in other countries, but that will likely take too long to save Q1. This poses severe consequences for most of the tech sector, including:
Large computer and storage vendors, like Apple (AAPL), Dell (DELL), EMC (EMC), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), IBM (IBM), and NetApp (NTAP). Apple admitted as much on its conference call.
Other companies that use HDDs in their products, like Oracle (ORCL) and Tivo (TIVO). Making matters worse, every vendor I have mentioned will have to pay significantly higher prices for the HDDs they can acquire. Thus, the impact on profit margins could be even worse than the impact on revenues.
Companies whose components go into or connect to Storage products, like Emulex (ELX), Hutchinson (HTCH) and Marvell (MVRL). These vendors face the opposite issue. There will be too much supply of their components, leading to aggressive price cuts. They will sell significantly fewer units and earn significantly less per unit.
This will also have an impact on other tech giants like Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT), because lower production of PCs and laptops also means lower sales of INTC’s chips and MSFT’s software. Similarly, numerous other software vendors will be affected, especially those with applications that rely heavily on storage.
To provide an idea of what is going on at the flooded companies, I acquired some photos of a facility in Aytthaya, Thailand. The facility is used by a company called Kumi Thailand to make molded plastic auto components. According to most reports I have gathered, these photos are fairly indicative of what has occurred at hundreds of facilities in Thailand’s affected areas.
The commentary that came with these photos was as follows:
All machinery that was powered up at the time the water had risen to the electrical control box is now useless. The longer that water sits, the more it will damage the equipment, to a point it cannot be repaired and will need to be replaced.
This is what they are dealing with -- three and a half feet of water (and rising as of the time the photos were shot). Nobody can say how long it will take for the waters to recede, but even when they do, it’ll will require a Herculean effort to clean out the mud, debris, and waterlogged items (everything on the first floor of every building). From there, the facilities will have to be thoroughly dried. In addition, the facilities will likely have to be tested for structural damage.
The impact may be unprecedented, but it wouldn’t be the first time that companies have been hit with a multi-quarter supply shortage. In fact, earlier this year (March), Japan’s tsunami wiped out much of the supply of a critical component for fiber optic cable. The impact of that is still being felt by most fiber-optic equipment vendors -- more than seven months after that tragedy. The latest proof point came on the Calix (CALX) earnings call last Thursday, where management cited fiber cable supply as a factor in its disappointing results. Its shares have fallen from a 52-week high of $22.97 in May to a 52-week low of $6.39 on Friday.
Of course, non-Thailand production will step up to a degree, as Thailand's production will not. The damaged equipment and facilities will not be easily replaced. As one contact put it, “to manufacture certain pieces of automation for HDD manufacturing has a start to finish to delivery cycle time of about 10-14 months (assuming the company making the machine has no backlog).”
Even the perceived winners could be losers. This week, investors looked at Intevac (IVAC) and Xyratex (XRTX) as big winners. We would agree that XRTX’s testing-equipment business will reap a windfall, since testing machines were present in the flooded areas. However, XRTX requires a large supply of HDDs for its storage systems business. Testing-equipment revenues won’t come for several months, but its systems business is immediately impacted (and will likely remain impacted at least through the spring).
As for IVAC, its machines enable the production of HDD media (the actual disks inside the HDDs). However, much of the world’s media production is concentrated in Malaysia and Singapore. Thus, the flood may actually prove to be a negative for the company.
The Bottom Line: Tragedies like this are never timely, but this one comes at a particularly bad time. Technology companies are gearing up for the critical end-of-year push. A decline in HDD supply threatens to spoil the sector’s bread-and-butter quarter. This comes amid rising economic uncertainty. ECRI’s proprietary leading indicators have turned negative. For those unfamiliar with ECRI, it has a sterling reputation for accuracy in this regard.
Prior to this, in an early-August report, Pipeline Data warned its clients that our own proprietary technology-purchasing leading indicators had turned negative. As a result, we were already of the belief that the tech sector was at high risk of posting sub-par Q1 results.
Based on our latest accumulated data, we believe that possibility has now become a near certainty.
yesterday eod. sold half lvs nov4weeklies @1. want to see what early next wk brings.
did you sell on V's pop today
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
runnnnnnnnnnn turd
My schedule hosed me this week, can't trade at all.
Live to fight another day...I'll be in next week.
in for a small lotto play...
Option
Buy Open
20
LVS Nov 04 '11 $50 Call w
Limit Day 0.27 0.27
Executed
was able to get out of the V weeklies for only about a 50% loss, lol, whew..
I know, that is why I seldom listen to the talking heads. The only thing I know for sure, is when everybody is buying, time to sell, when everybody is selling, time to buy, lol
how f'd is this market anyway? a month ago we are saying its the end of the world. now, market has seen the biggest 1month jump EVER. how nuts is that???
lol, I agree, but there will be some correction here, for sure!
dude, stop lol. how many times gotta say eoy rally coming? market cleared for now to run.
Ok made another trade VXX calls
Filled Buy to Open 4 VXX Nov 19 2011 37.0 Call Limit 2.73 -- -- 15:32:43 10/27/11
Ok, I did make one trade:
Filled Buy to Open 3 SPY Nov 19 2011 129.0 Put Limit 2.83 -- -- 14:45:11 10/27/11
I am going to be sitting out of any trading today, unless something comes up big. Still have some V calls weeklies, FFIV puts Dec, my apple calls and apple stock, and a mixed bag of other leaps, calls, stocks.
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