MBIA Inc (MBI)

[KingofPennies]

AGO popped nicely. Looks like shes on her way. Still monitoring MBI. Looks like shorties still want to push it down.

[eye_ater]

Sweet, keep me informed on what your looking at. Also check out the board in my siggy. Some good picks over there as well.

FTBK AGO MBI GNW NFP FNM FRE are some ones I am trying to build a good long positon in right now for when the market does turn. Thousand or two shares each should be a good bet I think.

[KingofPennies]

Sure are. At this point, all I know, is if and when the market turns and goes on a bull run, I'll be sitting in a very good spot. I pulled out last year and have been a buyer now for two months now. And I plan on buying each week for the next three months.

[eye_ater]

LOL, there are a lot to choose from aren't they.

[KingofPennies]

Holy cow, I can't hardly afford to keep buying all these bargains.

[eye_ater]

FYI - Another to keep an eye on that's near bottom is AGO.

[eye_ater]

Yep still watching. Will start adding here shortly, I think bottom is in or real close.

[KingofPennies]

Still watching? I've got this now on my radar. Looks likes it's geting close to the bottom. Any ideas?

[eye_ater]

Getting mighty close.

[eye_ater]

Still waiting for a bottom here.

[eye_ater]

Getting mighty close for an add here.

[eye_ater]

Watching for a bottom here.

[mlkrborn]

$4.09 now! 52 weeks low level was $3.62..

[mlkrborn]

didnt find your info in tickerspy? provide direct link? what are dates of purchases?

[TopHat]

More Significant news:

Marty Whitman, the second most successful investor of all time (IMO) just INCREASED Third Ave. Value Fund's holdings of MBI. Third Avenue Value fund had purchased 34 Million shares, and have recently upped their holdings another 5 Million.

They are not the only ones increasing their holdings. Both insiders and other funds have increased their holdings recently.


Third Avenue Management Mutual $350.8M | 39.2M shares - increase of 4.9M shares
Ivory Investment Management Hedge $121.8M | 13.6M shares - increase of 11.6M shares
Fine Capital Partners Hedge $51.7M | 5.8M shares - increase of 3.9M shares
Plainfield Asset Management Hedge $17.9M | 2.0M shares - New Holding
Second Curve Capital Hedge $17.4M | 1.9M shares - increase of 230.0K shares
Cedar Hill Capital Partners Hedge $12.9M | 1.4M shares - increase of 631.1K shares
http://www.tickerspy.com/spy.php?t=MBI&vt=pros

[TopHat]

Here is some significant news!


FACTBOX- Biggest changes in NYSE short interest

The latest date is as of Oct 15, while the previous period's data is as of Sept 30.


FIVE BIGGEST DECREASES:
Wachovia Corp (WB.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 91,038,382 199,647,343 -108,608,961 -54.40%
National City Corp (NCC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)62,263,634 149,166,364 -86,902,730 -58.26%
General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz)93,598,425 110,780,518 -17,182,093 -15.51%
MBIA Inc. (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 62,000,270 77,992,369 -15,992,099 -20.50%
Bank of America (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) 94,066,573 109,265,063

Over 20% of the shorts covered in the last 2 weeks. Maybe they know something we don't yet.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsnews/idINN2435313020081024?rpc=33

[TopHat]

I'm wondering if the recient price rise has anything to do with the upcoming conference call.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed=BW&Date=20081030&ID=9337503&Symbol=MBI

I was wondering why the spike ocurred last Wed.

It will be interesting to see.

[Frankiy]

The first gap at $6.33 has been closed here yesterday

[Frankiy]

MBI $12.00 a stock which I would short (buying some put options) right here!
Two up gaps at $6.33 and $5.04.

[JT1101]

MBIA Inc. (MBI): An Embattled Bond Insurer on the Rise
http://www.beaconequity.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1489&Itemid=27

[Seminole Red]

back when i bought i had 2 choices....mbi at 6 bucks or abk at 4 bucks ....i would have been better with mbi but im up with abk too.

good luck

[stocksablaze]

still on a tear here. man sold way too early lol

[Seminole Red]

MBIA CEO: Assessing Its Options To Sue Pershing Square
08/08 11:20 am (ON)
Story 0461 (ABK, MBI)

By Lavonne Kuykendall

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

CHICAGO -(Dow Jones)- Bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI) is assessing whether it can sue short-sellers who may have violated rules against spreading negative rumors, the company's chief executive said Friday.

MBIA and other bond insurers have long battled short-seller William Ackman of Pershing Square Investments over his negative view of MBIA and rival Ambac Financial Group (ABK).

Now that regulators have begun investigating some short sellers to see if they have broken laws on spreading rumors, MBIA will not only cooperate with the investigations, it will consider launching a lawsuit of its own.

"MBIA is assessing all of its options, including any litigation that may be necessary if we believe that is in the best interest of its shareholders," said Jay Brown, chief executive of MBIA, during the company's earnings conference call Friday.

Meanwhile, "we will cooperate with any investigation," Brown said. He would not go into any more detail.


Brown's comments came after New York Insurance Commissioner Eric Dinallo has suggested that his office might begin investigating short selling in insurance stocks, following similar investigations into short-selling by other regulators.

Ackman's Pershing Square Investments hedge fund has been a vocal critic of bond insurers, and has predicted that the companies will run short of capital to pay eventual claims on its insurance policies covering subprime mortgage loans.

Comments and reports by Ackman have had a dramatic effect on bond insurer share prices in the past several months.

Shares of MBIA recently traded up 5.3% to $8.72 after the company reported better-than-expected earnings before the market open Friday.

-By Lavonne Kuykendall, Dow Jones Newswires; 312 -750 -4141; [e-mail]

Click here to go to Dow Jones NewsPlus, a web front page of today's most important business and market news, analysis and commentary: http://www.djnewsplus.com/al?rnd=NId47M 3vsqdNbn%2FahaPRAg%3D%3D. You can use this link on the day this article is published and the following day.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

08 -08 -08 1120ET

[FORDGT]

This one is getting exciting..... Drop this baby to 6 again... Please !!!!!!!! I like it !!!!

[davidam]

This has been moving with the overall market and eventually will rebound strong

[Alibaba100]

entered a small position here. will ad quickly if it raises above about 14$
Lots of short shares here:

MBIA Inc. $ 13.61
MBI -0.68
Short Interest (Shares Short) 43,165,700
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 7.2
Short Percent of Float 22.37 %
Short Interest - Prior 53,831,800
Short % Increase / Decrease -19.81 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -128
% From 52-Wk High ($ 72.38 ) -431.81 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 6.75 ) 50.40 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 29.70 ) -118.22 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 12.69 ) 6.76 %
Price % Change (52-Week) -79.20 %
Shares Float 192,990,000
Total Shares Outstanding 236,137,048
% Owned by Insiders 22.65 %
% Owned by Institutions 65.20 %
Market Cap. 3,213,825,223
Trading Volume - Today 5,047,862
Trading Volume - Average 5,961,000
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average 84.68 %
Earnings Per Share -15.17
PE Ratio
Record Date 2008-AprA
Sector Financial
Industry Surety & Title Insurance

[Arisquad]

Anyone still in here? No dividend.. That hurt my feelings.

[davidam]

More bad news here. This one eventually will present opportunity but who knows how low it will go first

Analyst slashes MBIA earnings estimates
Deutsche Bank cuts forecast after bond insurer's latest efforts to raise capital.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/22/news/companies/mbia_downgrade.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008022208

[analogdog]

Had some fun... now it's scary. Good luck.

[davidam]

Thanks for that info !!

[stock mogol]

Here's a link to the public offering. I don't know when it will be but my bet is institutions are going to snap it up and sell the stock right away (flip it) for a quick profit. The price of the offering is $12.15 not $12.50 my mistake. The offering could also be as much as 94 million shares if there is an over allotment.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mbias-shares-gain-1-billion/story.aspx?guid=%7BC14AECF9%2DA5D4%2D4C2E%2D99AE%2DD2908CD2ABBD%7D&siteid=yhoof
1 billion dollars wont be enough to even begin to cover the losses coming up either. Also Fitch already warned that regardless of capital raised it could still downgrade their ratings.

[davidam]

interesting I did not know about the public offering will look into that..

[stock mogol]

Warburg agreed to buy 16.1 million shares at $31.00 a share. He already lost money. MBIA is having a public offering of 80 MILLION shares at $12.50 a share. He was stupid. Why buy at $31.00 a share when he could have waited and bought all he wanted at $12.50 a share! He lost $18.50 a share! MBIA is burning the office furniture to stay warm. Before the offering they had 125 million shares outstanding. These 80 million shares will have a tremendous dilutive effect once they hit the market. Remember MBIA is just the holding company and will be left with nothing even if it's insurance subsidiaries are bailed out.

[davidam]

Warburg agreed to buy 16.1 million shares of MBIA at $31 a share
you tyhink its going to the scrap heap?

[stock mogol]

You guys should be shorting this one - not buying long!!! If you own any shares sell them now while they're still worth something! MBIA is headed for the scrap heap, even if it's insurance subsidiaries get bailed out. The holding company - what all you guys are buying into - is going to be left with nothing and drop down to zero!!! Don't be so fast to throw your money away!!

[davidam]

rebound continued today hopefully it picks up steam next week! I see no reason why this doesnt rebound significantly mabe just a matter of a little time

[davidam]

thanks I plan to hold on for a much larger rebound!

[stocksablaze]

nice buys bro!

[davidam]

turning green and moving fast

[davidam]

grabbed a solid position on the open from 11.90 to 12.00
hopeing to watch this one rebound solidly

[davidam]

This one looks like a buy to me today

Late Wednesday, MBIA closed on a $500 million stock sale to Warburg Pincus that was part of an up to $1 billion investment in the firm that Warburg had previously announced.

Under the terms of the stock sale, Warburg agreed to buy 16.1 million shares of MBIA at $31 a share. MBIA shares closed Wednesday at $13.96 a share.

[analogdog]

uuuhhhh... nope... but Warren Buffet may by one of them... dunno. I'm finding something else. ABK tanked... but the puts had great dollar volume and traded well. A 100 point cut would pop all of em....

[stocksablaze]

still think so?

[analogdog]

MBIA Shares Rise 11% After Davis Purchases a 5.1% Stake
By Karen Richardson
Word Count: 466 | Companies Featured in This Article: MBIA, Merrill Lynch

In a vote of confidence for a battered stock, mutual-funds manager Davis Selected Advisers LP sharply increased its stake in bond-insurer MBIA Inc.

This was the second high-profile investment by Davis into a struggling financial stock this week. Monday, Davis joined with Singapore state investment company Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd. to invest $6.2 billion in Merrill Lynch & Co.

Davis, a family-run investment firm based in Tucson, Ariz., is known for taking long-term positions in cheap, out-of-favor "value" stocks. Its decision to invest in MBIA adds another well-respected name to the list of supporters ...

[TREND1]

MBI_MONTHLY

[analogdog]

Bond insurers jump on hopes for mortgage plan
A pact would aim to freeze rates on some subprime loans
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 1:51 p.m. EST Nov. 30, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Bond insurers, including Ambac Financial Group Inc. and MBIA Inc., saw their shares jump Friday, rallying in the aftermath of a report that the U.S. government is working on a plan to bail out millions of subprime borrowers.
The White House and the mortgage industry are near a pact that would freeze low rates on some subprime mortgages that are due to "reset" to higher levels soon, The Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the negotiations. See full story.
Under one scenario, the freeze could last up to seven years, the newspaper reported. Rates on more than 2 million adjustable-rate mortgages reportedly are scheduled to jump during the next two years.
Such a plan may be good news for bond insurers, which have insured complex securities known as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, that are partly backed by subprime home loans.
If some subprime mortgage rates don't reset higher, then fewer borrowers may default. That means the mortgage assets supporting the CDOs could become more valuable and may also be less likely to default.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bond-insurers-jump-plan-freeze/story.aspx?guid=%7BB1712CB7%2D03D2%2D4F5F%2DA801%2DF593DAD35268%7D&siteid=yhoof

[analogdog]

$60 target within 2 weeks IMO.

[analogdog]

IMPORTANT READ... ABK, AGO, MBI this explains why AGO has recovered. Still opportunity left in ABK and MBI in my opinion.

Market Spotlight: Bond Insurers
Friday November 30, 5:22 pm ET
By Dan Seymour, AP Business Writer
Bond Insurers Suffer Drubbing As Investors Wonder Who Will Foot Subprime Crisis Bill

NEW YORK (AP) -- In the past six weeks, bond insurers have taken a drubbing. However, some analysts say the stocks are suffering from panic over a dire scenario that is unlikely to materialize.

MBIA Inc.'s stock has plummeted 56 percent since early October and has not been this cheap since 2000. Ambac Financial Group Inc. is down 68 percent in the last six weeks and trades at its lowest price in more than 10 years.

The plunge in the sector reflects worry that bond insurers -- which underwrite insurance policies promising to repay a bondholder if the issuer of the bond defaults -- will end up footing the bill for this year's credit crisis.

Mounting payment defaults and an exodus of cash from risky debt have torpedoed the value of a rash of investments, especially bonds backed by home loans. According to Moody's, the industry insures $60.87 billion in mortgage bonds whose credit quality is fast decaying.

The three major ratings agencies -- Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch -- are reviewing whether the abrupt breakdown in credit quality this year threatens bond insurers' financial strength. The agencies say they may cut the financial strength ratings on some bond insurers. Few industries are as reliant on ratings as bond insurance.

If a bond insurer's financial strength is compromised, bond investors grow worried the insurer could fail to meet a claim covering a bond default. Weaker financial strength ratings would limit insurers' ability to win new business.

Citi Investment Research analyst Heather Hunt said bond insurers' stocks seem to assume their ratings will be cut, which she does not consider likely. She expects the agencies to affirm MBIA's, Ambac's and Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s financial strength ratings.

She lowered her price targets and earnings estimates for the sector, but said the stocks' freefall has gone too far. While the industry faces steeper losses as more bonds go into default, the companies have enough cash to withstand the claims, she said.

Meanwhile, she said stocks in the sector are very cheap.

A bond insurer's stock has historically been worth an average of 1.6 times the value of its assets, according to Banc of America Securities analyst Tamara K. Kravec. Lately though, the stock of every major bond insurer stock is worth less than the value of its assets, some substantially less. Ambac's stock trades at 40 percent of its book value, a quarter of the historical average. MBIA's stock trades at 0.58 times the value of the company's assets.

"Times of turmoil create the best buying opportunities, particularly when fear is at its greatest," Kravec said.

She rates the sector "Overweight," and said the market appears to be pricing in "a very extreme scenario that assumes significant losses." The probability of those losses is relatively low, she said.