MBIA Inc (MBI)

[Enterprising Investor]

Puerto Rico, Bondholders Remain at Odds (6/21/16)

Commonwealth and creditors are still far apart, as they seek to resolve a standoff over $70 billion in debt

By Heather Gillers and Matt Wirz

Puerto Rico drew back the curtain on its talks with bondholders, underscoring how far apart the sides remain in a fight over the restructuring of $70 billion of municipal debt.

Puerto Rico’s Government Development Bank on Tuesday disclosed terms of various restructuring proposals discussed in negotiations that have ended. The talks included a committee representing investors in the commonwealth’s general obligation bonds, a group holding senior sales-tax-backed, or “Cofina,” bonds, and a single investor with large holdings of general obligation bonds and junior Cofina bonds, according to the disclosure.

Uncertainty about a looming U.S. congressional vote on a restructuring framework for Puerto Rico has made it difficult for the island to come to terms with the various creditor groups, investors and analysts said. Neither the island nor its bondholders are likely to agree to a deal until rules are worked out on Capitol Hill, they said.

Meanwhile, some general obligation bondholders filed a lawsuit Tuesday challenging Puerto Rico’s April debt moratorium law, which allows the commonwealth to suspend bond payments while it addresses its financial crisis. Plaintiffs in the suit are Jaçana Holdings, Lex Claims, MPR Investors and RRW I.

Puerto Rico has said it can’t afford to make a $2 billion payment on its general obligation debt due July 1.

Grace Santana, chief of staff to Gov. Alejandro García Padilla, said the governor’s office is reviewing the suit, but “the hedge funds’ decision to litigate instead of continuing good-faith negotiations further demonstrates their continued refusal to acknowledge the reality of the commonwealth’s fiscal crisis.”

Puerto Rico presented investors on June 14 with a proposal that amended a previous restructuring plan by offering to give bondholders more of a new bond that would pay interest in cash, instead of additional debt.

The changes were most significant for holders of junior Cofina bonds, improving recoveries to 60 cents on the dollar from at least 43 cents under the government’s previous deal, according to the disclosure.

Oppenheimer Funds Inc. and Franklin Templeton Inc. are two of the largest holders of the junior Cofina bonds, with combined investments of $3.1 billion. The two mutual-fund managers also own $6.6 billion of other Puerto Rico bonds.

An Oppenheimer spokeswoman said the firm didn’t participate in negotiations but looks forward to working with other stakeholders “to help get Puerto Rico on a sustainable path forward while serving the interests of our shareholders.” Franklin Templeton declined to comment.

Other stakeholders include hedge funds and insurance companies, which back more than $10 billion in Puerto Rico debt. The Government Development Bank said some insurers were involved in the discussions. The two insurers with the most debt, Assured Guaranty Ltd. and National Public Finance Guarantee Corp. , a unit of MBIA Inc., declined to comment. They hold a combined $8.8 billion, according to documents posted on the firms’ websites.

In Puerto Rico’s latest proposal, the island would improve general obligation recoveries to 81 cents on the dollar from at least 72 cents and Cofina senior bond recoveries to 80 cents from at least 61 cents.

Creditors countered with a proposal that sought 95 cents on the dollar for senior Cofina bonds and 89 cents for general obligation bonds.

Gov. García Padilla said the counterproposals “fall short of what Puerto Rico needs to secure a prosperous future.”

The island’s general obligation bonds changed hands at about 66 cents on the dollar on Tuesday, reflecting investor doubts about Puerto Rico’s offer and the island’s substantial financial problems, investors and analysts said.

Current prices imply the new exchange bond Puerto Rico is proposing would trade at a yield of about 7%, much higher than the 5% yield the government proposed, they said. Bond yields rise as prices fall.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/puerto-rico-bondholders-remain-at-odds-1466550983

[Enterprising Investor]

National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation Comments on the Complaint it Filed Challenging the Puerto Rico Emergency Moratorium and Financial Rehabilitation Act (6/15/16)

PURCHASE, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (National), an indirect subsidiary of MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI), released the following comments regarding the complaint it filed today challenging the Puerto Rico Emergency Moratorium and Financial Rehabilitation Act (Moratorium Act).

Bill Fallon, National’s Chief Executive Officer, said, “National filed a Complaint in Federal District Court in Puerto Rico today seeking a declaration from the court that the Puerto Rico Moratorium Act is preempted by Federal bankruptcy law and violates the U.S. Constitution in several respects. Similar to the Puerto Rico Public Corporation Debt Enforcement and Recovery Act that was adopted by Puerto Rico and found to be invalid by the United States Supreme Court, National believes that the Moratorium Act is likewise invalid. With this action, National is seeking to protect the right to priority of payments established under the Puerto Rico Constitution on the General Obligation bonds that it insures, and the liens on properties that secure other National-insured bonds, which the Commonwealth has already invaded under claimed authority of the Moratorium Act.” Fallon added, “While National is supportive of the efforts by the U.S. Congress to pass legislation to address Puerto Rico’s financial difficulties, the current draft of the PROMESA legislation approved by the House of Representatives does not foreclose continued reliance on the unconstitutional Moratorium Act. National continues to stand ready to work constructively with its Puerto Rico credits to address their financial and liquidity challenges, and National is also determined to take reasonable and necessary actions to protect its rights as the insurer of these bonds.”

Forward-Looking Statements

This release includes statements that are not historical or current facts and are “forward-looking statements” made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words “believe,” “anticipate,” “project,” “plan,” “expect,” “estimate,” “intend,” “will likely result,” “looking forward” or “will continue,” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical earnings and those presently anticipated or projected, including, among other factors, the possibility that MBIA Inc. or National will experience increased credit losses or impairments on public finance obligations issued by state, local and territorial governments and finance authorities that are experiencing unprecedented fiscal stress; the possibility that loss reserve estimates are not adequate to cover potential claims; MBIA Inc.’s or National’s ability to fully implement their strategic plan, including the ability to maintain high stable ratings for National and generate investor demand for National’s financial guarantees; and changes in general economic and competitive conditions. These and other factors that could affect financial performance or could cause actual results to differ materially from estimates contained in or underlying MBIA Inc.’s or National’s forward-looking statements are discussed under the “Risk Factors” section in MBIA Inc.’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K, which may be updated or amended in MBIA Inc.’s subsequent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. MBIA Inc. and National caution readers not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements, which speak only to their respective dates. National and MBIA Inc. undertake no obligation to publicly correct or update any forward-looking statement if it later becomes aware that such result is not likely to be achieved.

National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation, headquartered in Purchase, New York is the world’s largest U.S. public finance-only financial guarantee insurance company, with offices in New York and San Francisco. Please visit National’s website at www.nationalpfg.com.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160615006237/en/National-Public-Finance-Guarantee-Corporation-Comments-Complaint

[Jabroni123]

http://reut.rs/1VP3weE

[Enterprising Investor]

Puerto Rican Debt Crisis Is Coming to a Head (5/07/16)

Congress is under pressure to create a financial control board that could restructure the island’s $72 billion of debt and maybe impose a settlement on bondholders.

As Congress weighs legislation to permit Puerto Rico to restructure its $72 billion of debt, the commonwealth’s bonds are languishing at or near record lows. Investors fear an unfavorable deal could be forced on them by an as-yet-to-be-created financial control board.

Puerto Rico’s benchmark 8% general-obligation bonds, due in 2035, traded Friday around 64, down from 73 at the start of the year and 93 when the $3.5 billion issue was sold in March 2014. Other GO debt changes hands in the mid-50s. Puerto Rico’s long-term senior Cofina bonds, backed by sales-tax revenue, trade around 57, and junior Cofina debt, near 40. The GOs and GO-supported debt total about $17 billion (face value), and a similar amount of Cofina debt is outstanding.

The U.S. House of Representatives soon is expected to resume work on legislation to let Puerto Rico restructure its debt and create a financial control board. The board could oversee the island’s finances and possibly force a restructuring deal on recalcitrant bondholders.

Congress is likely to enact legislation before midyear, when Puerto Rico faces $2 billion of bond interest and principal payments. Puerto Rico now lacks access to the bankruptcy code’s Chapter 9, which lets local governments, but not states, restructure debt. Barron’s was among the first to call attention to Puerto Rico’s financial plight in an Aug. 24, 2013, cover story.

Puerto Rico’s Government Development Bank, which plays a key role in the island’s finances, defaulted on $3.9 billion of debt last week, while working out a deal with about 25% of creditors that would pay them around 47 cents on the dollar.

“Most everyone agrees that Congress needs to act to create an oversight board that gives Puerto Rico the regulatory and legal framework to restructure its debts and put the economy on a more sustainable path,” says John Loffredo, co-head of investor MacKay Municipal Managers. Without a powerful board, it will be tough to achieve a comprehensive restructuring.

GO holders say their claims are protected by the Puerto Rican constitution, while senior Cofina holders take comfort from that debt’s dedicated revenue stream.

Muni-bond managers Franklin Templeton and Oppenheimer, the largest holders of junior Cofina debt, are resisting any deal that would impose a harsh settlement on them. For risk-takers, the best Puerto Rican bet probably is the GO bonds, because they have protection from the Puerto Rican constitution. While it’s unlikely that they’d pay 100% in a restructuring, they may get more than the current market price.

One sizable Puerto Rico bondholder fears a powerful control board would impose an onerous settlement on investors. Puerto Rico’s government wants maximum debt relief. In such situations, political forces can trump financial interests.

Among the things to watch is whether any restructuring involves creating a Puerto Rican “super-bond,” backed by a dedicated revenue stream, and whether Puerto Rico’s pension plan, which has $43 billion in unfunded liabilities, is untouched or minimally affected. Pensions were favored over bondholders in the Detroit and General Motors (ticker: GM) bankruptcies.

Cofina bonds could be dicey because the agency was created to enable Puerto Rico to get around legal restrictions on GO issuance. In Detroit’s bankruptcy, similarly structured debt was treated harshly.

Puerto Rico Gov. Alejandro Padilla has denounced “vulture investors,” including some hedge funds, for trying to profit at the expense of ordinary Puerto Ricans. However, the hedge funds, big buyers of Puerto Rico’s $3.5 billion GO issue in 2014, now have paper losses of 30%.

Puerto Rico debt insured by the likes of Assured Guaranty is holding up well, as investors anticipate that the insurers will make good on their guarantees.

The only certainty: There will be plenty of drama in coming months as Puerto Rico moves to a likely restructuring of its onerous obligations.

-- Andrew Bary

http://www.barrons.com/articles/puerto-rican-debt-crisis-is-coming-to-a-head-1462593795?tesla=y&mod=BOL_archive_twm_dept

[Enterprising Investor]

No position at this time.

[Enterprising Investor]

MBIA - Misunderstood And Dramatically Undervalued (5/16/16)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3975391-mbia-misunderstood-dramatically-undervalued

[Enterprising Investor]

MBIA Stock Could Reach $12 (5/11/16)

Shares of the financial services firm may be trading far below value even if new business remains difficult.

MBIA (MBI: NYSE)
By MKM Partners ($7.53, May 10, 2016)

We continue to believe the shares of MBIA trade far below its economic value and maintain our Buy recommendation with a $12 price target, based on a multiple of roughly 0.4 times our 2017 adjusted book-value-per-share estimate.

MBIA (ticker: MBI ) reported 2016 first-quarter operating earnings of 12 cents per share, essentially in line with our estimate of 13 cents, and higher than the consensus estimate of nine cents. Adjusted book value (ABV) per share was $31.74 as of March 31, up from $25.78 in the year-ago period, and up from $29.69 as of Dec. 31. We believe ABV is the best way to value a financial guarantor over time.

New business remains difficult for the industry and MBIA given the current low-level interest rates and spreads. The company recorded net premiums written of $1.3 million for the quarter, well short of $26 million of scheduled earned premiums that it needs to stay even. Anything less will generate excess capital as the business runs off. [Subsidiary] National Public Finance has strengthened its marketing efforts over the past year, but it will take time for it to regain the market receptivity that it once enjoyed.

National Public Finance reported incurred losses of $9 million, up from a benefit of $6 million in the year-ago quarter due to the increase in loss reserves for certain Puerto Rico credits. The financial guarantors all use a probabilistic model in arriving at loss reserves. An outsider cannot fully evaluate the assumptions behind the models, but we suspect the models are similar with respect to potential up-front losses, but likely differ on potential recoveries.

The corporate segment reported an operating loss of $21 million in the first quarter compared with an operating loss of $22 million a year ago. While the operating loss was comparable to last year’s level, the segment can see significant volatility due to mark-to-market and foreign-exchange gains/losses that are removed from our review. This quarter saw a $60 million negative swing from foreign exchange and an $18 million negative swing from mark-to-market changes. However, as these notes are mostly long dated, the near term volatility may not have much real impact. The company only has $123 million of these notes maturing in 2016 and $49 million in 2017.

During the first quarter, the company repurchased 15 million common shares at an average price of $6.30 each. It likely repurchased more shares than planned early in the quarter when its share price dipped. As of May 5, there was $100 million of remaining authorized capacity under the company’s current share-repurchase program.

We are adjusting our 2016 earnings-per-share estimate down to 50 cents from 55 cents, and down to 55 cents from 60 cents for 2017. While we tinkered with a number of items, the chief reason for the revision is a higher expense ratio due to the company bringing in more new business people. While the numbers of new hires are small, it still raises expenses.

-- Harry Fong

http://www.barrons.com/articles/mbia-stock-could-reach-12-1462962403

[Enterprising Investor]

MBIA Inc. Reports First Quarter 2016 Financial Results (5/09/16)

PURCHASE, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI) (the Company) today reported Combined Operating Income (a non-GAAP measure defined in the attached Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures) of $16 million for the three months ended March 31, 2016 compared with Combined Operating Income of $34 million in the same period of 2015. The decline in Combined Operating Income for the three months ended March 31, 2016 was primarily the result of a decrease in net premiums earned and an increase in losses and loss adjustment expenses (LAE).

Adjusted Book Value (ABV) per share (a non-GAAP measure defined in the attached Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures) increased to $31.74 as of March 31, 2016 from $29.69 as of December 31, 2015. The increase in ABV per share was driven primarily by a decrease in common shares outstanding resulting from share repurchases. The Company repurchased 15 million of its common shares during the first quarter of 2016.

Operating Income and ABV per share provide investors with views of the Company’s operating results that management uses in measuring financial performance. Reconciliations of ABV per share to book value per share, and Operating Income to net income, calculated in accordance with GAAP, are attached.

Consolidated GAAP net loss was $78 million, or $(0.58) per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2016 compared with consolidated net income of $69 million, or $0.37 per diluted share, in the same period of 2015. The unfavorable comparison was primarily due to foreign exchange related losses on financial instruments and mark-to-market losses on insured derivatives.

Statements from Company Representative

“National’s new business platform continues to expand,” said Bill Fallon, MBIA’s Chief Operating Officer. “We are making steady headway with our expanded new business team despite the ongoing challenging business environment for our industry.” Mr. Fallon added, “We continue to strive for appropriate resolutions for our Puerto Rico credits but progress remains slow as the debates rage as to the appropriate course of action for U.S. Congress to implement. We are also continuing with our financial progress with another quarter of operating income. The GAAP net loss for the quarter was driven by two large fair value items, as shown in the above table. MBIA Inc.’s liquidity position remains among our highest priorities, and we expect that continuing payments from National will satisfy MBIA Inc.’s future liquidity needs. Of note, our first quarter share repurchases drove an increase of $2.05 of our Adjusted Book Value for the quarter continuing our efforts to increase shareholder value as our new business efforts ramp up.”

U.S. Public Finance Insurance Results

The Company’s U.S. public finance insurance business is conducted through its subsidiary, National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation (National).

The U.S. Public Finance Insurance segment recorded GAAP net income of $41 million for the first quarter of 2016 versus $57 million for the first quarter of 2015. The decline in GAAP net income was primarily due to a decline in premiums earned and an unfavorable variance of $15 million for losses and LAE.

The U.S. Public Finance Insurance segment recorded $37 million of Operating Income in the first quarter of 2016 compared with $56 million of Operating Income in the same period of 2015. The decline in Operating Income was also primarily due to a decline in premiums earned and an unfavorable variance of $15 million for losses and LAE.

Total net premiums earned in the U.S. Public Finance Insurance segment were $58 million in the first quarter of 2016, down 32 percent from $85 million of total premiums earned in the same period of 2015. Premiums earned from refunded transactions decreased 36 percent and scheduled premiums earned declined by 26 percent. The decline in scheduled premiums earned resulted from portfolio amortization and high refunding volume over the last year.

National wrote $158 million gross par amount of new insurance during the first quarter of 2016, equal to the amount written during the fourth quarter of 2015 and up from $38 million in the first quarter of 2015. Gross premiums written during the first quarter of 2016 were $1.3 million, which was also the same as the fourth quarter of 2015 and up from $195 thousand in the first quarter of 2015.

Net investment income for the U.S. Public Finance Insurance segment was $31 million in the first quarter of 2016, 7 percent higher than the first quarter of 2015. The increase was primarily due to a higher average investment yield, partially offset by lower average investment balances, driven by tax payments and a dividend payment to MBIA Inc. in the fourth quarter of 2015.

The U.S. Public Finance Insurance segment recorded loss and LAE of $9 million in the first quarter of 2016 compared to a benefit of $6 million in the first quarter of 2015. The unfavorable comparison in losses and LAE was primarily due to the increase in loss reserves for certain Puerto Rico credits in the first quarter of 2016.

The amortization of deferred acquisition costs totaled $12 million in the first quarter of 2016 compared with $18 million in the same period of 2015. The decrease in the amortization of deferred acquisition costs corresponds to lower premiums earned.

National’s operating expenses were $15 million in the first quarter of 2016, down 6 percent from the $16 million in the same period of 2015, notwithstanding increases in National’s headcount to expand and enhance new business production capabilities.

National had statutory capital of $3.4 billion and claims-paying resources totaling $4.7 billion as of March 31, 2016. National’s insured portfolio declined by $11 billion during the quarter, ending the quarter with $150 billion of gross par outstanding.

Corporate

The corporate segment is responsible for general corporate activities, including managing the holding company’s balance sheet and expense base, providing support services to MBIA’s other operating businesses and other business development activities. Shared support services are provided by MBIA Services Corporation on a fee-for-service basis.

The corporate segment recorded a GAAP net loss of $84 million in the first quarter of 2016 versus net income of $15 million in the first quarter of 2015. The adverse variance was primarily due to a $116 million unfavorable change in net gains (losses) on financial instruments at fair value and foreign exchange that was primarily due to adverse changes from foreign exchange.

The corporate segment recorded an Operating Loss of $21 million in the first quarter of 2016 compared with an Operating Loss of $22 million in the same period of 2015.

As of March 31, 2016, MBIA Inc. held cash and liquid assets of $371 million, excluding $218 million of assets in its tax escrow account. During the first quarter of 2016, $105 million was released to MBIA Inc. from the tax escrow account in accordance with the Company’s tax sharing agreement.

The Company’s consolidated net operating loss carryforward for income tax purposes as of March 31, 2016 was approximately $2.7 billion.

During the first quarter of 2016, the Company repurchased 15 million of its common shares at an average price of $6.30 per share. The Company has not repurchased any additional shares since February 25, 2016. As of May 5, 2016, there was $100 million of remaining authorized capacity under the Company’s current share repurchase program.

International and Structured Finance Insurance Results

The international and structured finance insurance business is conducted primarily through MBIA Corp. and includes the results of MBIA Insurance Corporation, the New York-regulated insurer on a stand-alone basis, and its subsidiaries, MBIA UK Insurance Limited and MBIA Mexico S.A. de C.V.

The Company does not measure Operating Income for this segment. The international and structured finance insurance segment’s contribution to consolidated GAAP net loss was a net loss of $31 million in the first quarter of 2016, compared with a net loss of $2 million in the same period of 2015. The higher net loss was driven by a $56 million unfavorable variance related to the net change in fair value on insured derivatives.

MBIA Corp.’s statutory net loss for the first quarter of 2016 was $55 million compared to statutory net income of $3 million for the first quarter of 2015. The unfavorable variance was driven by a $42 million increase in losses and LAE incurred. The statutory capital of MBIA Insurance Corporation as of March 31, 2016 was $844 million and claims-paying resources totaled $2.4 billion.

As of March 31, 2016, the liquidity position of MBIA Insurance Corporation (excluding its subsidiaries and branches) totaled $278 million consisting of cash and invested assets.

Conference Call

The Company will host a webcast and conference call for investors tomorrow, Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 8:00 AM (EDT) to discuss its first quarter financial results and other matters relating to the Company. The webcast and conference call will consist of brief remarks followed by a question and answer session.

The dial-in number for the call is [phone] in the U.S. and [phone] from outside the U.S. The conference call code is 91611568. A live webcast of the conference call will also be accessible on www.mbia.com.

A replay of the call will be available approximately two hours after the completion of the call on May 10 until 11:59 p.m. on May 24 by dialing [phone] in the U.S. or [phone] from outside the U.S. The replay call code is also 91611568. In addition, a recording of the call will be available on the Company's website approximately two hours after the completion of the call.

Forward-Looking Statements

The information contained in this press release should be read in conjunction with our filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This release includes statements that are not historical or current facts and are “forward-looking statements” made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words “believe,” “anticipate,” “project,” “plan,” “expect,” “estimate,” “intend,” “will likely result,” “looking forward” or “will continue,” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical earnings and those presently anticipated or projected, including, among other risks and uncertainties, the possibility that the Company will experience increased credit losses or impairments on public finance obligations we insure issued by state, local and territorial governments and finance authorities that are experiencing fiscal stress, the possibility that MBIA Corp. will have inadequate liquidity to pay claims as a result of increased losses on certain structured finance transactions, in particular residential mortgage-backed securities transactions that include a substantial number of ineligible mortgage loans, or a delay or failure in collecting expected recoveries, the possibility that loss reserve estimates are not adequate to cover potential claims, a disruption in the cash flow from our subsidiaries or an inability to access capital and our exposure to significant fluctuations in liquidity and asset values within the global credit markets as a result of collateral posting requirements, our ability to fully implement our strategic plan, including our ability to maintain high stable ratings for National and generate investor demand for our financial guarantees, deterioration in the economic environment and financial markets in the United States or abroad, and adverse developments in European sovereign credit performance, real estate market performance, credit spreads, interest rates and foreign currency levels, the effects of governmental regulation, including insurance laws, securities laws, tax laws, legal precedents and accounting rules; and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time. These and other factors that could affect financial performance or could cause actual results to differ materially from estimates contained in or underlying the Company’s forward-looking statements are discussed under the “Risk Factors” section in MBIA Inc.’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, which may be updated or amended in the Company’s subsequent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company cautions readers not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements, which speak only to their respective dates. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly correct or update any forward-looking statement if it later becomes aware that such result is not likely to be achieved.

MBIA Inc., headquartered in Purchase, New York is a holding company whose subsidiaries provide financial guarantee insurance for the public and structured finance markets. Please visit MBIA's website at www.mbia.com.

Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

The following are explanations of why the Company believes that the non-GAAP financial measures used in this press release, which serve to supplement GAAP information, are meaningful to investors.

Adjusted Book Value: Adjusted Book Value (“ABV”), a non-GAAP measure, is used by the Company to supplement its analysis of GAAP book value. The Company uses ABV as a measure of fundamental value and considers the change in ABV an important measure of periodic financial performance. ABV adjusts GAAP book value by removing the GAAP book value amounts for items that are not expected to impact shareholder value and to add in the impact of certain items which the Company believes will be realized in GAAP book value in future periods. The Company has limited such adjustments to those items that it deems to be important to fundamental value and performance and which the likelihood and amount can be reasonably estimated. ABV assumes no new business activity. The Company has presented ABV to allow investors and analysts to evaluate the Company using the same measure that MBIA’s management regularly uses to measure financial performance. ABV is not a substitute for and should not be viewed in isolation from GAAP book value.

ABV per share represents that amount of ABV allocated to each common share outstanding at the measurement date.

Claims-paying Resources (CPR): CPR is a key measure of the resources available to National and MBIA Corp. to pay claims under their respective insurance policies. CPR consists of total financial resources and reserves calculated on a statutory basis. CPR has been a common measure used by financial guarantee insurance companies to report and compare resources and continues to be used by MBIA’s management to evaluate changes in such resources. The Company has provided CPR to allow investors and analysts to evaluate National and MBIA Corp. using the same measure that MBIA’s management uses to evaluate their resources to pay claims under their respective insurance policies. There is no directly comparable GAAP measure.

Combined Operating Income: The sum of Operating Income of the U.S. public finance insurance (National) and corporate segments net of eliminations. See “Operating Income” definition.

Operating Income/Loss: Operating Income/Loss is a useful measurement of performance because it measures income/loss from the Company’s core operating segments, unaffected by investment portfolio realized gains and losses, gains and losses on financial instruments at fair value and foreign exchange, and realized gains and losses on extinguishment of debt. Operating Income/Loss also excludes net income/loss of the Company’s non-core operating segments. The Company’s non-core segment includes the activities of its international and structured finance insurance segment. Trends in the underlying profitability of the Company’s businesses can be more clearly identified without the fluctuating effects of the excluded items noted above. Operating Income/loss is disclosed on an after-tax basis and adjustments to net income/loss are typically tax-effected at 35% unless a specific adjustment, or component thereof, is not taxable. Operating Income/Loss as defined by the Company does not include all revenues and expenses required by GAAP. Operating Income/Loss is not a substitute for and should not be viewed in isolation from GAAP net income/loss.

Operating Income/Loss per share represents that amount of Operating Income/Loss allocated to each fully diluted weighted-average common share outstanding for the measurement period.

[tables deleted]

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160509006502/en/MBIA-Reports-Quarter-2016-Financial-Results

[Enterprising Investor]

Shareholder Letter (3/22/16)

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/814585/000119312516513639/d135486dex991.htm

[Enterprising Investor]

Brilliant!

[Enterprising Investor]

Puerto Rico Bonds Snapped Up by Insurers as Crisis Nears Climax (3/10/16)

National and Ambac boost their holdings of island securities

Insurers use investment portfolios to buy distressed debt

By Michelle Kaske

The companies with the most at stake in Puerto Rico’s debt crisis have become buyers of the island’s bonds.

MBIA Inc.’s National Public Finance Guarantee Corp. and Ambac Financial Group, which together insure about $19 billion of the U.S. territory’s principal and interest against default, have used millions from their investment portfolios to buy Puerto Rico securities they guarantee. Some of the bonds trade for as little as pennies on the dollar because no payments come due until decades from now, when the commonwealth’s current bout of fiscal turmoil will be a distant memory.

“As the bonds are insured by National, we are very familiar with the credit profile of the bonds and the purchase price made it an attractive investment, especially for insured debt,” Chris Young, National’s chief financial officer, said in an e-mail.

The investments reduce the payouts the insurers could face if the island defaults and signal a bet that at least some bondholders will fare better-than-expected when Puerto Rico restructures its $70 billion of debt. Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla wants owners of tax-backed securities to accept almost $23 billion less than they’re owed, with the prospect of recovering their losses if the island’s economy breaks out of its years-long recession.

It’s not the first time the insurers have bet that prices of bonds they stand behind have fallen too far. During last decade’s housing crisis, MBIA bought residential mortgage-backed securities that it was left covering after a default. The strategy reduced the outflow of claims payments and allowed the company to sell at a profit when prices recovered.

“It’s the normal course of business for them,” said Edwin Groshans, an analyst who tracks the insurers at Height Securities, a Washington-based broker dealer. “They’ve been insuring bonds for decades, so they have a very long track record of what a loss content is in certain scenarios.”

National boosted the amount of Puerto Rico securities it holds in its $4 billion bond portfolio to $585.6 million at the end of 2015 from $1.8 million the year before, according to its annual statement to state regulators on Feb. 29. Ambac, which has $2.6 billion of fixed-income investments, increased its commonwealth holdings to $87.4 million from $1 million a year earlier, the company’s disclosures show. The amounts reflect par value of the bonds once they mature rather than what the companies actually paid.

The jumps largely resulted from purchases of debt repaid with a dedicated share of Puerto Rico’s sales taxes. National spent about $100 million in August scooping up discounted senior sales-tax bonds worth $585 million that don’t begin paying interest or principal until 2040. Ambac in October and December paid about $10 million for $86 million of variable-rate highway bonds maturing in 2027 and 2028 and senior sales-tax debt that defers all payments until 2054.

“As part of our disciplined asset liability management program, we invest strategically and opportunistically in select Ambac insured bonds,” Abbe Goldstein, a spokeswoman for Ambac, said in an e-mail.

Who Loses?

Since the purchases, Puerto Rico has proposed foisting deep losses on owners of the sale-tax-backed securities, known by the Spanish acronym Cofina. Under the restructuring plan released on Feb. 1, those bondholders would recover about 49 percent of what they’re owed, compared with 72 percent on general obligations, which have the first claim on the government’s funds. Officials are working on a revised proposal after bondholders weighed in on the initial offer.

The specter of widespread defaults by the island has taken a toll on the insurers’ shares, causing MBIA to tumble 46 percent in the two years through December, while Ambac lost 43 percent. They’ve since recovered some as Puerto Rico moves closer toward completing a deal with creditors to cut its power company’s debt: MBIA has risen 41 percent this year to $9.14, and Ambac climbing 16 percent to $16.29, as of 10:02 a.m. in New York. Ambac and MBIA’s National insured about $10 billion and $9 billion of Puerto Rico principal and interest payments, respectively, at the end of 2015.

The insurance company’s recent investments have yielded mixed results. Ambac’s senior sales-tax bonds maturing in 2054, which it bought in October for 6.4 cents on the dollar, last traded Monday for 7.8 cents. National’s largest commonwealth bond purchase, acquired for 19.8 cents in August, last traded Feb. 18 at 19.6 cents.

The decisions may still pay off. Along with reducing how much they’d have to cover if Puerto Rico defaults, the companies may receive more than they paid for the securities under a restructuring, according to Groshans, the Height Securities analyst.

“The first benefit is not having to make the insurance payment on that bond,” Groshans said. “The second benefit is if they’re right, then the amount that they’ll recapture via the restructuring proceeding should generate cash for them to make other payments.”

Young, National’s chief financial officer, declined to comment on whether the increase in Puerto Rico holdings was part of a strategy to reduce claims payments.

“It was an attractive investment for our investment portfolio,” he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-10/puerto-rico-bonds-snapped-up-by-insurers-as-crisis-nears-climax

[Enterprising Investor]

Hot Research PM: MBIA Could See Happy Ending in Puerto Rico (11/03/15)

MKM Partners upgrades the bond insurer, expecting a big jump in the share price.

MBIA (MBI: NYSE)
By MKM Partners ($7.74; Nov. 3, 2015)

We are upgrading MBIA to Buy from Neutral as we believe the bond insurers and the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) will soon come to a consensual agreement whereby losses to MBIA (ticker: MBI ) (and the other bond insurers) will be minimal, if any.

PREPA:

• Several press reports suggest that the bond insurers and PREPA are close to a consensual agreement.

• Time is running out for all parties unless an agreement is reached soon. No agreement is a worst outcome for all.

• The bond insurers are likely to be a key part of the solution by providing PREPA with a surety bond guarantee to serve as a reserve fund.

Puerto Rico:

• Following a PREPA deal, there will still be a lot of work to do to “fix” Puerto Rico and the Goverment Development Bank for Puerto Rico.

• We expect the PREPA deal will serve as a restructuring framework for many of the island’s additional credits.

• The financial guarantors are extremely important to a successful Puerto Rico outcome as they can help the commonwealth access the capital markets at a reasonable cost.

Volatility:

• Our upgrade does not mean we expect an end to the volatility in MBIA’s shares.

• Capital structure traders could continue to be behind any extreme price swings in the stock as they rebalance their positions.

• One upcoming event where we could see a spike in volatility is when Zohar 1 matures on Nov. 20 even though this event has no bearing on MBIA or National Public Finance.

We believe the outcome in Puerto Rico looks more favorable for the financial guarantors and, therefore, we now recommend investors buy shares of MBIA. Our $12 price target is based on a multiple of 0.4 times our 2016 adjusted book value per share estimate.

-- Harry Fong
-- Darren Marcus

http://www.barrons.com/articles/mbia-could-see-happy-ending-in-puerto-rico-1446577852

[Enterprising Investor]

Confident Of Outcomes In Puerto Rico, MBIA Aggressively Returns Capital To Shareholders (10/30/15)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3624276-confident-of-outcomes-in-puerto-rico-mbia-aggressively-returns-capital-to-shareholders

[Enterprising Investor]

MBIA Inc. Announces New Share Repurchase Authorization (10/28/15)

PURCHASE, N.Y.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI) (the Company) today announced that the Company’s Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase by the Company or its subsidiaries of up to $100 million of its outstanding shares under a new share repurchase authorization. The Company’s prior authorization, which was announced on July 29, 2015, has been fully expended. Repurchases by the Company or its subsidiaries under the new repurchase program will be subject to available liquidity, general market and economic conditions, alternate uses for its capital and other factors. Acquisitions in the repurchase program may be made from time to time in open market transactions, block trades or in private transactions in accordance with applicable securities laws and regulations and other legal requirements. There is no minimum number of shares that the Company is required to repurchase and the repurchase program may be suspended or discontinued at any time without prior notice.

In 2015 to date, the Company and its subsidiaries have repurchased 38.9 million of the Company’s outstanding shares at a total cost of $297 million, which has reduced the Company’s outstanding common stock to 153 million shares.

MBIA Inc., headquartered in Purchase, New York, is a holding company whose subsidiaries provide financial guarantee insurance for the public and structured finance markets. Please visit MBIA's website at www.mbia.com.

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20151028006725/en/MBIA-Announces-Share-Repurchase-Authorization

[snowball12]

Short MBI on any rebound and all bond insurers. IMO.

[PAC]

MBI 5.85 Bottom setup

[lecorb]

Kroll Confident in Muni-Bond Insurers.Puerto Rico, in the oven

1:50 pm ET July 6, 2015 (Dow Jones) Print


13:50 EDT - As Puerto Rico edges closer to a possible default, rating agency Kroll is giving bond insurers which back billions of dollars of Puerto Rico debt a vote of confidence. The agency gives AA+ ratings to Assured Guaranty Municipal and National Public Finance Guarantee, saying recent events have "not progressed to a point that exceeds the level of stress we have previously incorporated in the rating analysis." Incorporated is an assumption that Puerto Rico losses of around 40% are seen by each insurer, but Knoll says their claims-paying resources are "sufficient to meet all requirements by a comfortable margin." ([e-mail]; @Mike_Cherney)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 06, 2015 13:50 ET (17:50 GMT)

[lecorb]

Hedge Funds Are Mixed On MBIA

Summary
•Hedge funds are divided on MBIA.
•MBIA trades at a big discount to book value, but there are no near term catalysts.
•MBIA’s Puerto Rican exposure adds uncertainty to the stock.



By Jay Smith

Several hedge funds increased their holdings of MBIA (NYSE:MBI) in the first quarter. George Soros' Soros Fund increased its position by 15% to 1,937,715 shares from January to March 31. Joel Greenblatt's Gotham Asset Management increased its position by 3% to 36,529 shares. Prem Watsa's Fairfax Financial Holdings increased its position by 67% to 50,000 shares. Glenn Dubin's Highbridge Captial Management more than doubled its position by 109% to 36,315 shares. Like hedge funds, an insider, CEO Joseph Brown, also raised his stake. Brown bought 75,000 shares at an average price of $8.98 per share on June 19. Brown's purchase gives him 3,765,772 shares total.

Going the opposite way are several hedge funds that either decreased their position or bought put positions on the MBIA. Kevin Michael Ulrich and Anthony Davis' Anchorage Advisors was one of the put buyers. The fund established a put position worth $41.850 million in the first quarter. Mark Gallogly's Centerbridge Partners was another put buyer, having reported a put position of $21.1 million at the end of March. Several hedge funds reduced their MBIA exposure. D.E. Shaw decreased its position by 48% to 735,145 shares while Ken Griffin's Citadel Investment Group decreased its holdings by 32% to 725,702 shares. Israel Englander's Millennium Management decreased its position by 98% to 18,723 shares too.

Our research shows that following hedge funds can generate alpha. Our analysis shows that the 15 most popular small-cap stocks among hedge funds have outperformed the market by nearly a percentage point per month between 1999 and 2012. We have been forward testing the performance of these stock picks since the end of August 2012. These stocks managed to return more than 142% over the ensuing 2.5-plus years and outperformed the S&P 500 Index by over 84 percentage points.

The hedge funds that bought put positions or reduced their long positions made the right choice. MBIA is down 37% year to date, and down 45% in the last 12 months. Because MBIA is a bond insurer, the stock sold off on the news that Puerto Rico might not pay its debts in the future. According to MBIA's 10-Q, MBIA's subsidiary National Public Finance Guarantee Corp had $4.5 billion in gross insured par exposure to Puerto Rico at the end of the first quarter. Of the $4.5 billion of gross insured par exposure, $1.422 billion is exposure to the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) which analysts don't believe has the financial resources to service its $9 billion in debt. PREPA looked like it was going to default on its $400 million payment this Wednesday, although now it seems that PREPA and its creditors will find a workaround to avoid a default.

Even if a workaround is successful, MBIA's Puerto Rican problem is not going to go away. Puerto Rico simply has too much debt that its ailing economy cannot support. A bailout is unlikely, as the U.S. Federal government has said it will not bail out Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is unlikely to grow its way out of the debt, as the country has been in a recession for almost a decade. Monetizing debt is also out of the question. Unlike the Federal government, Puerto Rico cannot print money to pay back its creditors. Unless Puerto Rico reaches a comprehensive restructuring with its creditors, Puerto Rico will be a cloud that hangs over MBIA for a while.

With shareholder's equity of $3.9 billion at the end of March 31 and a Standard & Poor's Rating of AA- for National Public Finance Guarantee Corp, MBIA will survive the Puerto Rico crisis unless the crisis spreads to other parts of the bond market outside of Puerto Rico. With a price to book value of 0.28, the bond insurer is arguably one of the cheapest stocks on the market today, but there are no immediate catalysts to send the stock up higher. MBIA needs a favorable Puerto Rico settlement or news of a big buyback for shares to rally higher.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3299015-hedge-funds-are-mixed-on-mbia

[lecorb]

Rating Action: Moody's MBI:In the oven

RATINGS RATIONALE



Moody's ratings of securities that are insured by a financial guarantor are maintained at a level equal to the higher of a) the rating of the guarantor or b) the published underlying rating. The Baa1(sf) rating of the notes reflects this modified "credit substitution" approach and is now equal to the underlying rating of the notes without incorporating the benefit of a financial guaranty policy provided by MBIA Insurance Corporation (MBIA, insurance financial strength at B2; negative outlook).



Moody's Senior Vice President Scott Robinson commented: "The affirmation reflects deal performance that is in line with our expectations of the underlying reinsurance cash flows as well as the performance of the invested assets backing the liabilities." The rating agency noted that there has been minimal asset impairments and exposure to real estate-related structured finance securities has enabled the notes to avoid some of the investment pressures faced by other life insurance-linked securities.



Northwind Holdings, LLC's ratings were assigned by evaluating factors that Moody's considers relevant to the credit profile of the notes, such as (i) the demographics and actuarial experience of the referenced block of (re)insurance business, (ii) relevant industry experience for similar products/underwriting, (iii) review of independent actuarial report, including assumptions underlying projected cash flows, (iv) expected loss and probability of default estimated via stochastic and deterministic modeling of the insurance cash flows and the performance of invested assets, and (v) other factors believed to be applicable to the assessment of the creditworthiness of the transaction, such as a review of the structural, legal, and regulatory risks.



Northwind Holdings is the shareholder of Northwind Reinsurance Company (Northwind Re), a special purpose captive reinsurance company domiciled in Vermont. Northwind Re was set up for the sole purpose of executing reinsurance agreements with the following Unum subsidiaries: Provident Life and Accident Insurance Company, The Paul Revere Life Insurance Company, and Unum Life Insurance Company of America (collectively "Unum Lifecos": financial strength ratings of A2/stable outlook) to facilitate the funding of capital supporting a closed block of both active and disabled life reserves.



Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:



The following factors could place upward pressure on the rating: 1) continued pay down of principal in line with target amortization 2) actuarial experience exceeding expectations; and 3) company action level RBC ratio consistently at least 200%. Conversely, the following could place downward pressure on the rating: 1) pay down of principal less than targeted amortization 2) actuarial experience below expectations; and 3) company action level RBC ratio consistently below 200%.


https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-Unums-Northwind-insurance-linked-securities-at-Baa1sf-stable--PR_325918?WT.mc_id=

[lecorb]

The main chart is negative, PO:$4.50

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=MBI

[lecorb]

MBI: Was downgraded by MKM Partners from Buy to neutal, Prce target from $20.00 to $8.00


Btig Research downgraded from buy to neutra, no target

[lecorb]

Puerto Rico Utility, Creditors Close to Deal to Avoid Default

http://www.wsj.com/articles/puerto-rico-utility-creditors-close-to-deal-to-avoid-default-1435699357

[lecorb]

Puerto Rico Worries Put Focus On Municipal Bond Insurers

5:49 pm ET June 30, 2015 (Dow Jones)


By Mike Cherney

Calls by Puerto Rico Gov. Alejandro Garcia Padilla to restructure the island's $72 billion debt load is putting renewed focus on whether insurers who back billions of dollars' worth of Puerto Rico bonds can absorb the losses in the event of a default.

The situation threatens to derail what has been a modest comeback for municipal-bond insurers, who suffered losses during the 2008 financial crisis after guaranteeing risky mortgage-backed securities. Nearly 60% of new municipal bonds sold in 2005 carried bond insurance, according to Thomson Reuters data, a figure that plunged to 3.6% in 2012 before recovering to 6.6% so far this year.

Investors are growing increasingly concerned. The stock prices of two of the biggest insurers, Assured Guaranty Ltd. and MBIA Inc., have fallen 11% and 28%, respectively, since Friday's close as analysts fret over whether the insurers can make good on their promises.

Bond insurers agree to make scheduled principal and interest payments if the municipality that sold the bond fails to pay. Investors expected Puerto Rico to have trouble paying bonds from some of its most stressed public authorities, a situation that analysts said appeared manageable for the insurers. But Mr. Padilla in a speech Monday said a more comprehensive restructuring plan is needed that could impact more of Puerto Rico's bonds.

As of March 31, Assured Guaranty backed roughly $10 billion in Puerto Rico principal and interest payments, and MBIA's National Public Finance Guarantee Corp. unit backed another $10 billion, according to financial documents from the insurers. Assured says it has $12 billion in claims-paying resources and National has about $4.9 billion, according to financial documents, though investors are likely to recover some value from Puerto Rico even if there is a restructuring.

The insurers also would have years to make the payments, given that some of Puerto Rico's bonds don't mature for decades. Still, significant losses could lead to fresh downgrades of the insurers' credit ratings, which would make it more difficult for them to write insurance policies on newly issued bonds.

In a research note last week, before Mr. Padilla's most recent comments, analysts at Barclays said that present-value losses of $750 million would "materially damage" MBIA and "potentially cause rating downgrades and diminished ability to write new business." Across two of Assured's subsidiaries, the analysts put the combined figure at $1.75 billion.

Mikhail Foux, head of municipal strategy at Barclays, said potential losses are now "more likely" to hit those numbers given the recent shift in Puerto Rico's stance.

Earlier in June, Moody's Investors Service said a "widespread, systemic default" could have a "significant adverse impact on the credit profiles and ratings" of some insurers.

Previously, "the governor was stressing the importance of maintaining access to the capital markets and paying debts when they come due," said James Eck, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody's. "It appears that maybe that desire is no longer feasible."

Despite the concerns about Puerto Rico, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Monday left unchanged the double-A ratings on Assured's subsidiaries and the double-A-minus rating on National. Insurers including Assured and National are also making payments in full on bonds tied to Detroit's bankruptcy, according to a report earlier this year from Kroll Bond Rating Agency.

Bond investors are still putting some faith in insurance, as Puerto Rico bonds that are backed by Assured and National are trading at higher prices than those on similar uninsured debt. Clark Wagner, director of fixed income at First Investors Management Co., said Tuesday that his firm sold a Puerto Rico bond insured by National and got nearly 100 cents on the dollar.

Puerto Rico bond prices have fallen broadly this week, with some bonds down roughly 11%.

Mr. Wagner said his firm sold the bond because he doesn't "want to go through this whole [restructuring] process," even though he expects investors that own the bond will ultimately get repaid in full.

Write to Mike Cherney at [e-mail]



Access Investor Kit for Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Visit http://www.companyspotlight.com/partner?cp_code=P479&isin=BMG0585R1060

Access Investor Kit for MBIA, Inc.

Visit http://www.companyspotlight.com/partner?cp_code=P479&isin=US55262C1009

Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 30, 2015 17:49 ET (21:49 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

[lecorb]

MBI: Another dead cat, follows the path of DRL.Direct BK!!!

MBIA plunges further as Puerto Rico mulls bankruptcy

http://m.seekingalpha.com/news/2606845?source=ansh … $MBI, $AGO, $AMBC

[lecorb]

*Option Alert: MBIA Jul $6 Call Sweep; 1050 Contracts Traded at Asj @$0.23

Benzinga

[lecorb]

MBI:On tuesday, S&P lowered its rating on Puerto Rican bebt to CCC- from CCC+ with negative Outlook as governor debt under BK protection

6/30/2015 11.07 HS (MT NEWSWIRES)

[lecorb]

MBI:On tuesday, S&P lowered its rating on Puerto Rican bebt to CCC- from CCC+ with negative Outlook as governor debt under BK protection

6/30/2015 11.07 HS (MT NEWSWIRES)

[GMONEY4]

Nice bounce off the low.

[GMONEY4]

On watch. New 52 week low.

[CortesInvestments]

Analysis - http://wp.me/p4yXop-sx

[Viking John]

I sold off MBI for another company breaking out today, ACT. All my stocks were performing well including MBI so it was a tough choice but I felt ACT is special now that they own the Botox maker AGN.

[Viking John]

I just bought this today. MBI is starting a solid breakout in high volume on a good earnings report and news of a buy back. They are a turn around story. They had a huge problem a couple of years ago that put them in trouble. That caused a huge drop in price. Now they have climbed out of the hole and have positive cash flow and some very good numbers. They are undervalued and the chart is starting to turn around.

[NewbieViewbie]

Just got in here Friday - hopeful - chart looks oversold to me. Time will tell!

[Daybull]

MBI on the move - up, up and away

The tree has been shaken and all the apples are gone. The new buds are starting to appear. 80% buys today. No longs are selling - just adding to their positions. Settlement is good and stock should rebound nicely.

Strong Buy

Daybull

[lecorb]

The big lie, CEO, Joseph W Brown

For any investor, this means, help, I need money.
MBI has a big debt, it is impossible to pay.
I as investor, I have why to finance its debt.
Accounting, is dead. Month after month undercapitalized. Why? because the interests outweigh the gains.
Technically it's a trap.
my opinion

[lecorb]

The chart has a drop off point at $ 11.48


Be carefull, Short sellers!

[Mr_Buzz]

Huge possibilities here. Need volume to come into this stock to take advantage of the 2200% beat on earnings estimates.

I posted to several other boards about the great possibility of a short squeeze. I suggest you do the same. If lots of people see this tock, the shorts can be run out of town!

[RickNagra]

Earnings just came out and they were really good. Expect a pop to $15 with ease.

[ECole]

Q3 conf call transcript read here


http://www.earningsimpact.com/Transcript/84466/MBI/Q3-2013-Earnings-Call

[Komando Robot]

Next Earnings Date: August 7, 2013
MBI reported 1st quarter 2013 earnings of USD 0.84 per share on 5/9/13.This beat the consensus of USD 0.15 by USD 0.69 of the 2 analysts covering this company.
Surprise Percent: +460.00%
Surprise Amt.: USD 0.69
Consensus Est.: USD 0.15

[Komando Robot]

Short % of Float (as of Jul 15, 2013)3: 13.60%

[Komando Robot]

LOADED LOTTO 10 STRIKE $14 CALLS @ .40

[oldhamtrader]

Rescap settlement statement:
http://www.kccllc.net/rescap/document/1212020130704000000000003

[McInc]

fundamentals here support extremely robust..this one will not fill the gap like some of them may think..it was not technical-driven.
shorting at this level is suicidal..traders will be frustrated.
fundamentals alone validate a $25+ price target short-term. do not fight against it.
Glta

[DarkPools]

who knows

ive got stops in place

[figone]

Covered 2,000 MBI @ 15.61.

Massive loss.

Should've stayed long.

[DarkPools]

2000 shares right under 15 im long

[figone]

Short 800 more MBI @15.38.

Average $14.70.

Getting squeezed here...

[figone]

I hope you're right. In the past hour, it's broke through two lines of resistance. Hoping the markets will fade and this will follow though.

38.2% Fib retracement is $13.30. Hope this sticks to the daily chart and not counting the pullback on Monday afternoon.

May have to take a small loss here. We'll see.

Best of luck.

[Penny_God]

I shorted 980 shares @ $14.76 & $13.99 .. I see this near $13.00 by weeks end maybe lower if no news. Bank of Anerica is strange though, they can make this thing pop.