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Yup...very much so. But, if you wake up one morning this week and oil has had a 4 or 5 dollar break to the downside in the overseas market well......it's game on. Negative momentum is stronger than positive momentum and that will certainly amplify the break. But, as Soapy said...gotta be careful.
-Dave-
DCR is a on a slippery slope now
$WTIC has a nice continuaion patter (triangle) forming -- I still think oil has a little strength left in it. As for DCR, be careful guys.
i am almost all out, holding some for the Saudi meeting/Fed meeting as a crapshoot and that's it.
<font color=red>***Termination date will occur on June 26, 2008
DCR creeping in this tough market..... even as oil moves back up
can she keep the interest alive?
Looking for oil to take a good hit today.
mb
you can also see them here real time.
http://realtimecharts.blogspot.com/2007/10/wti-light-crude-oil-10sec-10min.html
It would be in the money but not much into it!
DCR may see a rapid rise today with oil weakening into low 130's.
mb
This is looking pretty dead. May want to pack up before the termination date.
Speculative Question for DCR fans
If the price of oil was to drop to $115 by some magical process tomorrow... what does anyone think the price of DCR would be?
Oil having a hard time getting back over 135..obvious downard pressure...open outcry ends in 20min. A 10 dollar break to downside and we are back in the game. Longshot? Yes. Possible?...absolutely. The speculators/traders are the weak link in this chain..if they break. Oil breaks. Never underestimate the power of pyschology in the market.
-Dave-
DCR speculating above 30??? Whaaat?
Who would dare buy it now and why would they?
lol
Agreed...also on a negative note..oil did a perfect technical bounce on trendline support of around 132.50. Will the bounce hold or will it sell off again?? Hahahaha...and yes, you are right...this is definitely akin to being on death row knowing your innocent and waiting for the DNA evidence to come in that would free you, all the while hoping for a pardon from the governor.
-Dave-
unfortunately it appears that our best days will be next week, after the big Saudi pow wow. They have a lot more to say and do than they have yet revealed. Also keep in mind this Friday is triple witching.
Yet, I agree the sooner this week oil starts to go red, the more chance we have of seeing some momentum for our death row inmate here.
Momentum building to the downside..this might be a good day.
-Dave-
CNBC has a tick by tick streaming chart on their site under markets/futures. You can also subscribe to NYMEX charts etc. at NYMEX.com. Pricey but, if you're serious about commodity trading it's just part of the cost of doing business.
-Dave-
Where do you look to see oil prices? Whats the symbol? Cant figure it out.
Oil starting to sag......up by less than a dollar. Cmon baby!!
-Dave-
IMO...if oil drops below 130 and DCR is still trading around .30-.45 a share..yes. Even without that happening you may still be able to catch a few percentage points here and there from the volatility. However, that volatility has not been present over the last few days. So, whatever you do be careful, take profits if you have them, and make sure you read the info in the IBOX before doing anything.
-Dave-
I am not sure if it is important. As for now I am not playing it and am waiting. I am beginning to think oil will have to drop hard to get a DCR pop.
Soapy, I'm not that big a T/A guy but, I know enough to hold my own...but, I've noticed that this is the second time we've had a major gap down. From a T/A standpoint how relevant is this for DCR?
-Dave-
Is DCR at a good entry or no, in your opinion? TIA
Yup...I just got done looking at the $WTIC chart...it's tried to make a strong break through the $138-$139 a barrel zone 5 or 6 times. As it continues to retest those levels it also seems to want to settle around $134 a barrel and use that level as support. What I'm looking for is a strong break either over resistance or below support. In any case this is going to be a volatile week for oil.
-Dave-
Looking for the plug to fall out of the oil barrel..
it has been a huge run for the highs but the bulls are bleeding and more blood must splatter very soon!
SPLAT!
I agree but, damn it's painful to watch! I'm holding but, I'm not buying anymore just yet.
-Dave-
oil is up $ 4 this morning. I am holding DCR anyway. The Saudi's originally said 500k new barrels, then 300k, now CNBC reported only 200k/day. Something's fixed about this.
Still, the meeting is on June 22, and Fed rate meeting on June 24, so the oil bulls may be having their final push here right now.
Let's hope...it certainly looks to be weakening somewhat.
-Dave-
<font color=green>GLOBAL MARKETS-Lower oil, stronger US dollar boost Asia
stocksFont size: A | A | A10:21 PM ET 6/15/08 | Reuters
* Asia stocks edge up on lower oil prices, Wall Street rally
* U.S. dollar strengthens, helping regional exporters
* Inflation pressures lurk as corn prices rise to record
By Kevin Plumberg
HONG KONG, June 16 (Reuters) - Asia stocks rose slightly on Monday as the rebounding U.S. dollar boosted confidence in the region's exporters, but government bonds fell on expectations that central banks will raise interest rates to fight inflation.
Oil prices slipped under $135 a barrel CLc1 after United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, had told him it will boost output to the fastest in decades. [ID:nL15482776]
Along with U.S. inflation data that showed underlying price pressures rose moderately in May, and the biggest weekly rise in the U.S. dollar in three years, the easing in crude prices improved the prospects of some of Asia's well-known exporters such as Canon Inc 7751.T in Japan and Samsung Electronics 005930.KS in South Korea.
"A softer yen sparked hopes for upward earnings revisions for some exporters," said Takahiko Murai, general manager of equities at Nozomi Securities in Tokyo.
"But we have to brace for an eventual dramatic slowdown in Japan, where the stock market and the economy depend on overseas demand, considering the recent declines in Asian shares and rising inflation worries in emerging countries."
Japan's Nikkei share average () climbed 1.6 percent with the yen falling to a four-month low against the dollar.
South Korea's KOSPI .KS11 rose 1 percent and Taiwan's TAIEX .TWII jumped 1.3 percent, led by the technology sector.
The MSCI index of Asian equities .MIAS00000PUS rose 0.75 percent, after last week posting its largest decline since the week of Aug. 19. Stocks in the Asia-Pacific region outside of Japan were up 0.4 percent .MIWD00000PUS.
Equity markets in emerging Asia are viewed as particularly vulnerable to high oil prices because many of the region's central banks have had pro-growth policies for so long and their exchange rate policies are tightly woven to the U.S. dollar.
Last week Asia ex-Japan equity funds suffered the biggest redemptions of any major fund group and saw money going out the door for the eighth week in the last nine, according to EPFR Global, a Boston-based research firm that tracks $11 trillion in assets.
"Inflation was again the key driver of sentiment towards Asia, with investors fretting about the combination of social unrest, higher interest rates and weaker public finances triggered by the rapid escalation of food and energy prices," said EPFR Global analysts in a note to clients.
Government bonds around the world continue to be sold off on the view central banks are more concerned about the inflationary effects of high oil prices than sluggish economic growth.
The benchmark yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond, which moves inversely to the price, rose to the highest since July 2007, up 2.5 basis points to 1.890 percent JP10YTN=JBTC.
U.S. Treasuries were relatively steady in Asian trade. The two-year U.S. yield US2YT=RR last week had its biggest rise in 26 years as investors scrambled to price in bets the Federal Reserve could raise its benchmark interest rate this year.
Seventeen of the 31 central banks around the world tracked by Reuters have raised their interest rates this year, including China, India, Indonesia and the Philippines. [nGLOBAL]
U.S. light crude prices fell 74 cents to $134.12 a barrel, $5 off from an all-time record of $139.12 hit earlier this month.
The dollar was up 0.3 percent against the yen at 108.40 yen JPY=, strengthening by 3 yen so far in June. The euro slipped 0.1 percent to $1.5388 EUR=.
U.S. corn futures Cc1 rose more than 3 percent to a fresh record high as flooding in the U.S. Midwest raised the chances of reduced output from the world's largest corn exporter. (Additional reporting by Aiko Hayashi in TOKYO; Editing by Michael Urquhart)
And if you notice the B/A fading out to 4 digits. I think oil coming down in a big way starting tomorrow.
<font color=red>***Termination date will occur on June 26, 2008
This will help us Monday. The last supply shortfall they made such a big deal of earlier in the week was only a monthly shortfall of 4.6M barrels. This is 15M more barrels per month.
Saudi oil chief to address reports of oil increase- AP
Saudi Arabia's oil minister on Sunday will address reports that the world's largest oil-producing country is set to raise production by about 500,000 barrels per day, his adviser said.
($120 - price of oil) divided by 3
$117 =$1
$114 = $2
etc up to $40
Every $1 DCR gets is $1 that UCR doesn't get.
Above $120 DCR gets $0 and UCR gets $40
I agree with Soapy's recommendation...it this thing doesn't break to the upside by the end of next week get out. Also, if you end up showing some profit..take it, run, and play the next leg. If you're getting in next week you stand to have a pretty good chance to make a profit. Good luck.
-Dave-
Don't hang around that long...
Do you understand how this will be calculated?
Q: If I still own UCR or DCR on June 25th, how much will I be paid?
A: For each outstanding share, a final distribution in cash will be made equal to:
The Underlying value of the Up or Down trust on June 25, 2008
Divided by
The aggregate number of Up or Down shares that have been issued but not yet redeemed.
<font color=red>***Termination date will occur on June 26, 2008
<font color=red> *** READ THE POST BELOW
<font color=green> *** READ THIS OR ELSE
A termination trigger occurred on April 16, 2008 as a result of the fact that the Applicable Reference Price of Crude Oil was at or above $111 for three consecutive price determination days. An early termination date will occur on June 26, 2008 and the final distribution payment date will occur on July 3, 2008. Upon receipt of the final distribution on that distribution payment date, both the MACROshares Oil Down Holding Shares and the MACROshares Oil Down Tradeable Shares will be redeemed. After the MACROshares Oil Down Holding Trust and the MACROshares Oil Down Tradeable Trust have made such final distribution, both of the trusts will be terminated by us.
Ref: The S-1 Document in the SEC link found in the iBOX.
<font color=green> *** READ THIS OR ELSE
A termination trigger occurred on April 16, 2008 as a result of the fact that the Applicable Reference Price of Crude Oil was at or above $111 for three consecutive price determination days. An early termination date will occur on June 26, 2008 and the final distribution payment date will occur on July 3, 2008. Upon receipt of the final distribution on that distribution payment date, both the MACROshares Oil Down Holding Shares and the MACROshares Oil Down Tradeable Shares will be redeemed. After the MACROshares Oil Down Holding Trust and the MACROshares Oil Down Tradeable Trust have made such final distribution, both of the trusts will be terminated by us.
Ref: The S-1 Document in the SEC link found in the iBOX.
Be sure to read the FAQ in the iBOX. This Macroshares issue expires soon -- most likely worthless. If you trade it, READ THE FAQ.
Oil slips to $135 after OPEC questions high price
By ADAM SCHRECK – 22 hours ago
NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices pulled back Friday after OPEC questioned whether crude can remain so high through the rest of the year and the dollar gained against the euro. Meanwhile, U.S. filling station operators pushed average gas prices deeper into record territory.
Light, sweet crude for July delivery sank $1.49 to $135.25 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In its monthly market report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said oil's recent volatility "reconfirms the view that current price levels do not reflect supply and demand realities."
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the cartel added: "A review of the prospects ... also shows little support for prices to remain at current levels."
OPEC lowered its 2008 global demand forecast, saying it now expects demand to increase by 1.28 percent to an average of 86.9 million barrels per day, down from a previous forecast of 1.35 percent. That decision follows similar moves by the U.S. Energy Department and the International Energy Agency earlier in the week.
"It tells me that demand is slowing and it could accelerate if prices don't come down soon," Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago, said of the revised forecasts. "It's a sign that maybe the bull run could come to an end. You don't want to say that for sure, but you're starting to see some shifts."
Oil prices were also pressured by speculation that Saudi Arabia may boost production following a report in the Middle East Economic Survey, an industry publication.
Crude prices have fluctuated widely since they surged nearly $11 in a single session to a trading record above $139 a week ago. The price for a barrel has swung back and forth in a $10 band since then.
Some investors believe prices could yet push higher. Analysts call oil's current wavering "range-trading," as traders await direction from a significant move in the dollar or change in supply and demand fundamentals.
"There is no driver out there to cause prices to break out of this range yet," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "The overall market trend is still upward. There are still many supply side concerns that will continue to support prices at high levels."
A stronger dollar helped keep oil prices in check. The greenback gained against the euro after a Labor Department report showed consumer prices rose by the biggest increase since November, helping alleviate concerns that growing inflation could force shoppers to tighten their belts.
Investors who bought commodities such as oil to protect against inflation when the dollar was falling tend to sell when the greenback gains ground. Also, a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive to investors overseas.
At the gas pump, the price for an average national price for a gallon of regular rose to a record $4.066 overnight, from $4.06 a day earlier, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Diesel also set a new record, rising 0.2 cent to $4.796 a gallon.
The pain from the high cost of fuel is by no means limited to the U.S., where gas and diesel remains far lower than in Europe and some parts of Asia.
Many developing countries, which typically have far lower household incomes, hold food and fuel prices lower through subsidies. But higher commodities costs are forcing some governments to increase those subsidized prices as well, sometimes sparking protests.
In Malaysia, more than 1,000 opposition supporters marched through Kuala Lumpur Friday to protest the government's decision last week to hike retail prices 41 percent to $3.30 a gallon.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said soaring food and fuel costs could pose a threat to global stability.
"Unless we properly manage this issue, this could trigger a cascade of other challenges and crises affecting not just social and economic issues, but also political and security issues," Ban said following talks in London with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
In other Nymex trading, July heating oil futures slipped by 7.38 cents to $3.8689 a gallon, and July natural gas futures fell 13 cents to $12.668 per 1,000 cubic feet. Gasoline futures traded at $3.4765, down by 4.95 cents over Thursday's close.
In London, July Brent crude lost $1.54 to sell for $134.55 on the ICE Futures exchange.
He there Soapy, nice to see this board...
...I'm getting ready to start a position in DCR on Monday.
Another good one...very balanced.
-Dave-
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=au.c3bEf58NI&refer=home
READ THE STUFF IN THE IBOX
I am glad to see people are enjoying the forum! Don't forget, read the FAQ in the iBOX and realize Macroshares have a termination date.
very good article indeed with charts.
I hope DCR makes it for us to see gains from here with the very limited time remaining. Oil will be very volatile next week they are saying (even more so the week after).
Good article....
-Dave-
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25070763
It does appear that way but, as of now, .40 seems to be pretty strong support also. I'm seriously considering getting a little bit more at this price.
-Dave-
this should be even on the day, but it looks like a lot of stop loss triggers went off at .40
really needs barrel price to see sub 130 and soon.
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