Luckin Coffee Inc (LKNCY)

[CycleTrade]

Not any specific place. I check news sources all over the place/world as well as have Bloomberg on almost all day and night. I have a web based link and Bloomberg is always on. They have a scroll on the right side of the screen. Tons of info comes across that.

That's why I work about 12 hours a day. I have a normal day-to-day schedule of things to watch and check and then I also have a Sat schedule as well as a Sunday schedule. Normal day...5am to 5pm (take a break for 1 1/2 hrs...(hit the gym, pool and steam) make dinner, go out for a walk or something outside, watch a little tube and have Bloomberg on until I hit the rack. You can a lot done in a 16 hour day! No facebook, no social media (other than part of my research time)...waste of time....

Can you tell, I LOVE MY JOB! Hahaha.

Entered 27 and exited 8 trades so far today.... Normal Day...

[Bona Vista]

Definitely someone is looking to get out at $13.70 area as of yesterday and continuing today, possibly that person or persons may know something coming out that is NOT what most of us are hoping for.

Time is running OUT, we need to hear from LUCKIN regarding its ER.

[nicehit]

Watch the news! CNBC had a report that one of Chinas largest ports are closed due to Covid BS.

[Farmer_D]

Just curious, where do you get this info about the ports shutdown and lockdowns? Website or know someone there? Link? Thanks! I would like to periodically check the site so I'm not bugging people or listening to US news channels.

FD

[Bona Vista]

Thank you for the update, things not looking very bright debating whether I should sell or hold. We'll wait until next week or next month and then decide, hopefully, something will be released by then. Have a great weekend/b]

[CycleTrade]

More disappointing news out of China this week. More ports closed. More lockdowns due to the variant. More regulatory action on Chinese listed companies.

Aug 27th is now the new halt date as far as I can tell. Only selling after the 27th. Sept. 28th still out there as a full stop as well.

Not to mention the markets are starting a correction across the globe.

For Luckin specifically....someone was sitting around the 13.70 ASK doing some selling most of the day, yesterday.

Typical for this stock.

[Bona Vista]

Going to be really disappointed if LUCKIN doesn't report its ER today, it's been long enough and they must have everything completed by now.
Really enough is enough, get
it done whether it be for the Good-Bad- or the Ugly.

[Bona Vista]

Hi Cycle Trader,
I guess the UAE website regarding LUCKIN releasing their ER was NOT legit unfortunately.
Hopefully, one day we will see it, and be a positive one at that.

[Farmer_D]

Yes, I am aware. I'm just letting everyone know what I see on ETrade. I am still bullish on LKNCY but had to protect my profits in the short term.

FD

[Bona Vista]

From a previous post by Cycle Trade, he showed a listing of companies from UAE article showing ER for this week, LUCKIN was there and hopefully will release it if true.

[Farmer_D]

FYI. ETrade still doesn't have an ER date listed. Of course, my experience is ETrade is very slow to update the dates for smaller companies.

FD

[Bona Vista]

I know exactly what you mean, as for myself I rarely if ever listen to what others think, I like to make my own decisions and live or die by them.
Have a fabulous day, continue to remain positive with LUCKIN, it is going to happen sooner than later.

[CycleTrade]

Thanks Bona and I am glad you understand that my commentary was based on a conversational line versus any derogatory meaning. Well intention was the goal. Glad you saw that.

To change the subject a bit with a couple of more general trading observations about what I see out there when I am digging for this information....

I have seen some other behaviors that seem to be quite prevalent as I do my research. I find myself in a lot of chats rooms where this seems to be an accepted part of the participant behavior and I have also seen this with folks that I know personally.

Two things in particular.....These two things seem to be very common.

1) People who read stuff in chat rooms and then pass it off as their own work.

2) People who take the work of others, take the trades and then either take full credit if the trade works in their favor and brag how smart they are....or....if the trade doesn't work out, they lay total blame on the source. In essence, they are never wrong.

I know a guy, who has been doing this so long that he has actually convinced the people around him that he knows what is going on in the market, that he knows how to chart, how to do research, etc... But in reality, he has used my information as well as others to build this totally fake persona. ...The funniest thing is, people actually come to him for advice, then he calls me to see what I think about the stock or news item and then turns around and uses it as his own. It's like being a Trading Psychopath. Hahaha Strange but true.

Like I said, I have seen these behaviors for decades but since social media has come to the fore, these behaviors have become more and more prevalent.

My wife was a psychology major, so we talk about many trading behaviors but these two have really caught our attention.

The lack of self esteem needed to use these behaviors is really something to behold.

Such a "NEED" to be right all of the time and never admitting that they may have made a bad trade or mistake in their analysis.

I subscribe to a couple of rooms where this is also prevalent by "so called" professional traders. Almost never allowing themselves to admit that they were wrong on a call. We can only come to the conclusion that this has been increasing due to the use of social media and chat rooms.

Just very interesting to me to watch how the trading public changes over time.

Not really sure if it is pertinent to our previous conversations but thought I would share those observations.

Have Good One....OK back to work....

[Bona Vista]

Well said and although you may have done MORE research then myself, I too have put time and effort into LUCKIN perhaps NOT as much as yourself but enough.

I enjoy your opinions and like to see if yours is on the same page as mine, and yes there is always a risk when trading even getting married, with that said I am POSITIVE holding onto LUCKIN and believe in the end this company and their shareholders will prevail.

Once again I appreciate your posts, thank you.

[nicehit]

I sold some of my position here at various times. Made a profit in all my trades.

I'm down to 2K shares now and will wait for which shoe will drop.

IMO we should be fine. If they post the financials, we may shoot to $20 and long term to $50 plus if they get back to normal fillings.


Sit n wait for now!

[CycleTrade]

So...To finish the thought.....

If you make money on the trade, you may think you are GREAT! You're a Genius! or maybe you may realize that it was pretty much LUCK!

If I make money on the trade, I will know it was due to solid work, a thought process, and evaluating probabilities and risk.

Can I do that type of work on other stocks again and again and again? Yes I can....But I still recognize that LUCK is still involved in every trade....but I can do the work that will allow that PIECE OF LUCK to come to fruition.

So we would both participate in LUCK on the trade but we will both come to that LUCK in a very different fashion.

So am I going to hang my hat on these websites that may show an Earnings Date that may be generated by an Algo or any thing that may be created and posted....It's interesting but not my main source of info.

On the other hand,,,,I have had to enter and exit varying degrees of my position because SEC Filings or Commentary by the Chinese Gov't as they have changed the "risk parameters" in the trade.

So I have changed my position multiple times over the past year based on changing facts, while any person who is in the trade with blind faith and or has not paid any attention to what is going on at all.....have benefitted greatly and are just sitting and waiting for whatever is going to happen.

At this point in time, I have not traded this as well as the HODL'ers. But I am still in the trade and will benefit at the same level as everyone else.

That is the great thing about this job. The market makes you look smart and dumb all at the same time.

[CycleTrade]

There isn't much else to say Bona other than what I said in my previous post.

Trading has an inherent risk. If there wasn't any risk, it wouldn't be trading and everyone would do it.

The other side of it is this and this is VERY IMPORTANT>

I am sure you have heard the saying, "You make your own luck". Like when a Pro Golfer makes a great shot or a hole in one. Many just think that he is naturally gifted. But the golfer knows different. Thousands of hours of practice over a lifetime goes into ONE GREAT SHOT.

That's the same in trading. I work about 60 or 70 hours a week. I chart, I read, I build, I throw away, and I work on probabilities and outcomes.

On the other hand....people get their opinions from reading others work in chat rooms or reading just nonsensical posts to form an opinion.

So, I may have a different set of opinions based on logic and fact while others may just keep seeking another hit of adrenaline or dopamine from reading posts online to help give them confidence in an opinion that is really fomented on very little.

....and that may be why you constantly need hand holding and re-inforcement.

What did you do this weekend? Have some fun? I worked for about 16 to 18 hours this weekend. Then after hours and hours of reading gobs of BULLSHI*T I find a few clues that may or may not lead to something. So I post them here for you to see. Now you, who has done virtually nothing, reads them and can comment at will. But I have seen so much more and have formed a much deeper opinion and conviction because I have done the work.

My advice....Do some of your own work. Read and form your own opinion. Then you won't need to get your opinions elsewhere.

This is a job, a profession, just like any other. If you decide to treat it like a hobby, well that's fine too...but you are responsible for your own outcome.

What if I were to say to you....Hey Bona, I'm doing all of this work, so I would like 20% of whatever you make on the trade? Think about that for a while.....maybe you'll start doing some research on your own.

[Bona Vista]

There are those who now are saying tha ???? UAE report is false, and that LUCKIN will NOT be submitting its ER anytime soon.
At this point in the game, I don't know what or who to believe anymore.

[Bona Vista]

Cycle, talk to me I respect your honest and informative opinions.

[Bona Vista]

Should this be true it would be wonderful, if substantiated what are your realistic thoughts at this time.

[CycleTrade]

...and now this.....posted on UAE website for upcoming earnings next week.....

[Bona Vista]

Once again I thank you for your well put analysis of the present situation, personally my gut feeling is telling me that LUCKIN is totally in control of this issue from the get go.
Would be fantastic to see a positive NEWS Release, with that a spike in price.

[CycleTrade]

Your guess is as good as mine. There are no educated guesses with this company : ) They are on their own path, timeline and governance. I have never seen such a Sh*t Show.

It may be one of those instances where you just "hold your nose" and Buy.

...but....what I can say, that I have said from the beginning...I have always expected (before the whole Chinese Gov't involvement with Chinese listed stocks in the US) that they would have a "MIC DROP MOMENT" and the stock would GAP UP and let everyone who was waiting to get back in just watching in amazement and really no ability to get back in at lower prices.

You may remember me saying that I could see a GAP UP back above the GAP DOWN price of $25. Now that would make sense to me. Drop the financials overnight and let the thing OPEN above $30 and then everyone has to chase it all of the way back up to $50 and higher.

They have the stores, it looks like they have the revenues per store, they have gone profitable per store....slap a decent multiple on that scenario and you have a stock priced in the $60's or $70's right now.

If they resolve the lawsuits and satisfy the bondholders, there is no reason why not.

..and I am sure that most of you may not recall this little tidbit...but wayyy deep in the restructuring settlement document that was issued last December...they had a provision in there that granted the bondholders the right to buy shares above $60. Now why would they put that in there when the stock was trading sub-$10 at the time? Made no sense to me other than they knew the stock would fly at some point. But then all of the other crap transpired since then and it left it to be pretty much a moot point. But it's still out there.

Who knows Bona? I have trimmed my position but am still pretty well involved in the stock and will have to pay up like everyone else if good news drops. But what I can say, IT'S GOING TO RUN if the news is good. Institutions have just been sitting on their hands and they will want a piece of this as soon as the news breaks.

[Bona Vista]

So cycle Trade, what is your educated thinking as to what we can expect for LUCKIN this coming week or weeks??
???? or NO comment.

[CycleTrade]

Some more clues that MAY or MAY NOT BE relevant.

These dates could be based on the previous Earnings Calendar rotation as is normal in setting earnings dates.

....or...has Luckin notified the SEC that they will be reporting earnings this week?

Here are 3 examples.....You can decide for yourself....I would prefer to see something posted on their website but there is nothing there. On the other hand, they are under no obligation to set a date for reporting earnings. Many companies drop earnings whenever they want to.

It all just adds to this drama laden story.

[CycleTrade]

https://min.news/en/economy/3690c418692ff9106c1283949b9e8d52.html

[Farmer_D]

Very interesting. Thanks for posting, CycleTrade.

FD

[Bona Vista]

AS ALWAYS, THANK YOU FOR YOUR POSTS, AND YOUR INFORMATIVE NEWS UPDATE.

[CycleTrade]

I found some interesting posts and reading material this morning.

The biggest news is the one post by the TD Ameritrade client and the back and forth Q & A with the Rep....and then there is the return of borrowed shares to another trader. That means some of the Shorts are covering their positions and returning borrowed shares.

As has been true with this company for going on 2 years now....this entire story reads like Fiction. You couldn't write a script with more twists and turns. It has Villains and Heroes, Fraud and Corporate dodgery, Two Government backed investigations with actions levied against the company, lawsuits filed, stock manipulation, trading halts, more threatened trading halts that have now been removed......Who knows what what will happen next?

[CycleTrade]

[CycleTrade]

[CycleTrade]

[CycleTrade]

https://medium.com/@WelcomeToChina/time-to-buy-how-luckin-coffee-is-creating-a-coffee-culture-in-china-2f30426969f4

[Bona Vista]

Thank you so much for your input, things do seem very interesting and I look forward to hear some type of NEWS release in the coming week or so.

[CycleTrade]

I have some idea what may be happening...

Yesterday, after the close, someone or a group of someone's came in and bought 2,600,000 Shares. Prior to that trade, the volume for the day was only about 700k shs. Looks like it was some sort of arranged trade as they hit the stock SHORT going into the close to get a better price. Rumors are that it was some liquidation from the previous CEO affectionately known as "FAT LU".

BTW that trade had a value of about $36,000,000. Pretty nice sized investment.

Additionally, there was some chatter that someone approached to company as an investor and the company turned them down....so, they may have been the buyer of 2.6M shares.

...and now...TODAY...there is confirmed reports that TD Ameritrade has pushed back the halt date to Sept. 3rd instead of tomorrow.

Also...today, the pre-market opened strong above $14.00 and held above.

Does this mean that something positive is in the wind? You never know.

The SEC's hard date of Sept. 28th halt is still out there as well.

[Bona Vista]

NOT quite sure what's going on with LKNCY, the trading is very strange as if someone or many are either DUMPING or BUYING large amounts of shares at $14.25.

It seems as if someone knows something about possible NEWS on the horizon, if so I hope they are BUYING and it is GOOD.

[nicehit]

I sold all but 1k shares. Made good profit. will let the 1k ride!

Can go $20 plus or -$2. Lets. See.

[Bona Vista]

Because I believe LKNCY will be releasing NEWS this coming week, I will continue to HOLD my shares until the end of week.

Perhaps I just might SELL half of my position, and let the rest ride till the end.

[CycleTrade]

Congrats to you Farmer D. GREAT TRADE!!

[Farmer_D]

I sold all my positions on Friday. Today I brought home a brand new car, paid for with some of my profits from LKNCY. I do still believe in LKNCY but with the lack of communication and the new SEC rules, I wanted to secure my profits to be safe. I will still be lurking around and monitoring the company and possibly jump back in when the become compliant.

I wish the best for everyone!

FD

[Farmer_D]

I sold all my positions on Friday. Today I brought home a brand new car, paid for with some of my profits from LKNCY. I do still believe in LKNCY but with the lack of communication and the new SEC rules, I wanted to secure my profits to be safe. I will still be lurking around and monitoring the company and possibly jump back in when the become compliant.

I wish the best for everyone!

FD

[Bona Vista]

Your thoughts on LKNCY were quite profound and made total sense, it's going to be difficult for those like myself who are still holding shares in LKNCY to continue to do so unless NEWS is released to change the narrative prior to September.

I'm hoping that by the end of next week the company will release news that will comfort their shareholders, and provide us in what direction the company is heading.

Should next week come and go with nothing said, I will most likely sell my shares be happy with my profit and move on.

Always a pleasure hearing from you Cycle Trade, and hoping LKNCY continues to afford us of this communication in the future should relisting come to fruition.

[CycleTrade]

WOW!! I have rendered Bona Vista speechless. Hahaha

[CycleTrade]

https://pandaily.com/luckin-coffee-achieves-profitability-in-cut-throat-market/

[Farmer_D]

Sadly, very true CycleTrade. This is why I have been looking for my exit point for a little while now. I am not 100% certain or even 90% certain LKNCY will become Pink Current before September 28th so I want to lock in my gains. I certainly hope they do become current before I pull the trigger as I do believe they will go up. Your comment about going private etc, that is probably very real and is very scary to me. I plan on actually taking this profit and buying a new car (either sooner or later!). That would be a first time for me and something I could enjoy right now. Best of luck to everyone!

FD

[CycleTrade]

There is something coming that you should all know.

As part of the SEC's clamp down on Chinese shares traded in the US, they had set a mandate of compliance for de-listed shares to trade in open markets.

As of August 13th, 2021....If Luckin does not come current with its financials it's stock will be relegated to partial trading...Shares will ONLY BE ABLE TO BE SOLD AT MANY US BROKERS.....NO MORE BUYING. Many brokers in the US have halted trading in Luckin already since it was de-listed.

You should check to see if your broker is one of the limiting brokers as of Aug. 13th.

The next milestone if they do not come compliant is Sept. 28th. If they do not come compliant by that date, all trading will cease until they regain compliance.

One of my biggest concerns has been focused on this whole Chinese crackdown and the possibility of this trading halt becoming more than just a halt.

Let me walk you through the possibilities.....

1) The stock Sells off into the halt or once it is halted, they sell it down on the HK exchange or other foreign exchanges.
2) Once it is sold down to a low level, someone steps in and offers to take it private.
3) A deal is struck at the low price, they take it private and we all get whatever that price is.
4) Once it becomes private, they re-list the stock on the HK Exchange and THEN the stock appreciates to its full potential.

This is all VERY POSSIBLE and has happened in the past with other Chinese Companies.

This is where the nature of the SEC's concern regarding Chinese stocks lies. Since they are ALL SHELL COMPANIES....Just like Luckin...based mostly out of the Cayman Islands....Just like Luckin....There isn't anything that can stop them from doing this.

So you all need to be cognizant of this possible outcome.

Everyone agrees that Luckin has a Very Bright Future. The problem is....Is it as a US listed company or a HK listed Company? That's the question that carries a significant amount of risk as we get closer to these trading curbs.
2)

[Farmer_D]

Thank you CycleTrade! Very interesting information here. I really hope they become at least Pink Current VERY soon.

FD

[CycleTrade]

https://m.jiemian.com/article/6445220.html

[CycleTrade]

A Fund Bought 1.08 Million Shs on 6/30/21

[CycleTrade]

Grabbed this off of a chat board....Apparently they talked about LK on Fox Business today....