Lowell Farms Inc. (LOWLF)

[GoldRu$$H]

I never mentioned arresting as a measure. The article I posted was about the proposal to reduce the taxation on the legal cannabis in Cali.

I agree, why not try and include those illegal growers. However, many will rather not pay any tax, or go along with any regulation. Greed has no boundaries and so it resides on the illegal growers side also.

Nice thing about legal weed is there are standards regarding pesticides, mold and other substances. I prefer legalized weed because of the regulation and safety associated with not having to rely on black market vendors/organized crime.

Regulation costs money and like those pesky taxes, the illegal market makers have an aversion to parting with their profits. There is a dark side to the black market and what do you think are the working standards for employees of the black market as their labor is not covered under law???? I'm sure the average black market worker has a great benefit package with healthcare and a pension.

[Bonno]

Good luck arresting your way ...

Locking up folks growing cannabis will get you nowhere fast.

90 years of persecution has proved it over and over again.

It,s simple when it comes with cannabis...

Grow fire at low cost and you are golden.

PS... want to rid of legacy & grey market?

Include them!

[GoldRu$$H]

This is promising news. It seems like sensible legislation that would actually increase revenue for the state by lowering costs for consumers and increasing overall sales at legal dispensaries. Lets see how this shakes out, don't underestimate some legislators voting against this because lots of illegal cannabis cultivators are constituents and they can influence politicians with campaign donations. However, Cali must do something about the widespread illegal market, so good on Newsome for making this revised budget proposal.

https://www.marijuanamoment.net/california-governor-proposes-marijuana-tax-cuts-to-combat-illicit-market/

"The governor of California unveiled an updated budget proposal on Friday that calls for the elimination of the state’s marijuana cultivation tax and revised cannabis tax revenue allocations.

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) May revised budget would take steps intended to combat the illicit market and make the legal industry more competitive, in large part by zeroing out the cultivation tax that marijuana businesses currently incur.

It’s a move that stakeholders have been pushing for, especially as businesses have struggled to keep up with rising inflation and reduced demand compared to peak coronavirus pandemic levels. The governor emphasized on Friday that he was specifically committed to exploring ways to minimize the influence of illicit growers and sellers on undercutting legal, licensed businesses.

And while one might assume that removing the cultivation tax would hamper revenue streams for the state, a recent analysis from the Reason Foundation actually found that monthly tax revenue would increase by 123 percent by 2024 if the policy change was enacted.

The report said that ending the cultivation tax would mean lower costs for consumers and, therefore, increased legal purchases that would more than offset any revenue losses over time.

Newsom’s proposal on its own isn’t binding, however. It would need to pass the legislature with at least a two-thirds majority in order to be implemented.

“We’ve been working very closely with legislative leaders, and we’ve made tremendous progress,” the governor said at a briefing on Friday. “We haven’t finalized any of that, so I want to be careful not to disrupt that progress.”

Sam Rodriguez, policy director for the cannabis farmers advocacy group Good Farmers Great Neighbors, praised Newsom’s move in a statement to Marijuana Moment.

“California farmers are pleased that the governor has taken a leadership role in addressing the ills of the illicit market with a starting point on tax relief,” he said. “We look forward in working the legislative budgetary process to obtain more tax relief necessary to stabilize the supply chain. The legal market in our state needs a real bootstrap approach from our state. Anything less will potentially devastate the newly created cannabis economy. And that would be a travesty.”

The governor’s revised budget proposal also includes updated estimates on tax revenue allocations for the 2022-23 fiscal year.

The state is expecting to distribute $401.8 million for education, youth substance misuse treatment and school retention; $133.9 million for environmental clean-up and remediation related to illicit cannabis manufacturing and $133.9 million for law enforcement purposes.

“These figures reflect a total increase of $74.7 million compared to the Governor’s Budget estimate,” the revised budget summary says. “These estimates also reflect the proposed statutory changes to restructure the cannabis tax framework and maintain a baseline level of funding for this allocation.”

Separately, the governor’s plan would involve shifting “the point of collection and remittance for excise tax from distribution to retail on January 1, 2023,” while maintaining the 15 percent excise tax rate on marijuana sales.

The budget further calls for the creation of a one-time “cannabis local jurisdiction retail access grant program” to support the development and implementation of local retail licensing efforts. The $20.5 million for that program would come out of the state general fund. Localities that license equity applicants could receive additional funding.

Newsom said the goal of the initiative is “addressing the persistent issue that is exactly what we anticipated would be a persistent issue—and that’s dealing with the black market, going after the illegal growers and the illegal operators.”

[Marillionaire]

Big news For Cali They proposed to drop the Cannabis tax to ZERO July 1 2022

[happyglass]

Reporting after market close May 10th
https://ir.lowellfarms.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/87/lowell-farms-to-announce-first-quarter-2022-financial-and

[happyglass]

I think you did it right. Too many changes in the air and it is better to ve in than standing on the sidelines. Good call

[tmonkey]

should have waited a bit but can avg dn as i think the future is bright after this lackluster period--the glut of pot has shrunk and at the top of the mkt prices will hold better---tmonkey

[tmonkey]

got a piece of this yesterday---pot has been beeten down enough now----tmonkey

[Marillionaire]

https://ir.lowellfarms.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/82/lowell-farms-takes-the-lead-as-californias-largest

[Marillionaire]

https://mjbizdaily.com/california-wholesale-cannabis-prices-rebound-from-slump/

[Marillionaire]

The new board member used to give M&A advice t clients when he worked for Goldman Sachs.

[Marillionaire]

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838128/000117184322000269/exh_992.htm

[happyglass]

New hash wrap paperless joint available shows they have sell through on at least one item lol!

A fresh batch of Hash Wraps is now available at @gocaliva locations and online delivery! 💨⚡️(https://t.co/T3Rk5lrLNh) pic.twitter.com/FtKCklGmve

— Lowell Farms (@LowellFarms) January 10, 2022

[happyglass]

I think it would be unwise to expand until they know they have good legislation in place. Until then us cannabis is kind of in limbo. They have enough of a presence in the biggest state. If they dominate there, the rest of the country will follow. I just hope they keep it going and do not mess it up. If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. I am happy to wait for them to build their success. That is what real companies do.

[Marillionaire]

Pi financial on Nov 16th has a revised price target of $ 2.75 down from $4 due to expansion plans being pushed into 2023

[happyglass]

I much prefer to see this pass rather than just the safe or more acts. The republicans are run by people who’s only concern is money, once the money they all now smell is unlocked they will ignore all of the people who are harmed by the stupid laws that are now and would still be in place.

[happyglass]

Well that earnings crapped the bed didn’t it? Thoughts anyone?

[happyglass]

Lowell Farms interview from last week very interesting

[Marillionaire]

The link above goes to an 11 minute full facility tour of lowell farms grow . Watched it. Very impressive
https://vimeo.com/602277700

[GSWarrior831]

It's OK to add to your position from this level. Lowell is doing big things.....

[Marillionaire]

Beacon maintains a 5$ price target

[Marillionaire]

https://www.cantechletter.com/2021/08/huge-upside-to-lowell-farms-says-beacon-securities/

[georgie18]

LOWLF...$1.35 on the 200ma Break...:party:

[JohnCM]

[georgie18]

LOWLF...$1.30s clearing here...:partying_face:

[JohnCM]

Thank you!

I do not use "fully diluted" numbers. That is a forcast of the maximum, at this time, what the O/S would look like IF all warrants were converted, etc. I simply refer to quarterly report O/S or go to www.otcmarkets.com

I do not use "guidance" numbers, but take hard revenue numbers from the most recent quarterly report.

Correction: Lowell has around 245M fully diluted shares per the latest corporate presentation
Conservative guidance is fir $14 to $16M for Q2 but I expect them to blow the doors off that guidance with current monthly yields finally meeting expectations and the marketing/sales expansion plan for the Lowell flower pre-roll market. Cash of 13.6M may mean a raise is coming IF George is still planning his cultivation expansion plan.

I don’t know anything about TILT but if correct, on the surface, those are some compelling metrics.

[kahlua]

Correction: Lowell has around 245M fully diluted shares per the latest corporate presentation
Conservative guidance is fir $14 to $16M for Q2 but I expect them to blow the doors off that guidance with current monthly yields finally meeting expectations and the marketing/sales expansion plan for the Lowell flower pre-roll market. Cash of 13.6M may mean a raise is coming IF George is still planning his cultivation expansion plan.

I don’t know anything about TILT but if correct, on the surface, those are some compelling metrics.

[JohnCM]

COMPARISON LOWELL FARMS VS TILT HOLDINGS

Lowell Farms LOWLF
Last quarterly revenue $11M
Adjusted EBITDA <$4.6M>
Shares outstanding 70,612,253
Net loss/gain <$6.7M>
Cash and cash equivalent $13.6M
Price per share $1.06

TILT Holdings TLLTF
Last quarterly revenue $46.8M
Adjusted EBITDA $6.2M
Shares outstanding 325,668,294
Net loss/gain <$1.58M>
Cash and cash equivalent $9.0M
Price per share $0.49

[kahlua]

While we’re both clearly bullish, I respectfully disagree with your thesis at least near term. It’s all about California. The distribution prior to buyout was around 175 to 200 dispensaries and they were doing $15M a year. Due to pricing pressures, lack of funds and distribution along with quality issues the brand lost the top spot for the premium market. With the Indus platform underneath this brand I think they have the potential to quadruple sales on an annualized run rate as they exit 2021 with aggressive marketing and distribution expansion (not to mention the tailwind of added retail coming online throughout many counties in the state offering even more potential shelves for product. The brand equity must be fully built and the leader trophy claimed in the California market before aggressively looking toward inter-state commerce. Lowell was selling 1100 - 1300 lbs a month last year, if you quadruple that you’ll quickly realize the current cultivation footprint (and especially the currently poor yield throughput ) cannot even support just the potential premium flower sales in California. Once they close on these added cultivation sites and complete buildouts, hopefully within 12 months, then they’d actually have capacity to meet the Cali market and start crossing borders, assuming legalization includes inter state commerce. The bigger question for now is how is George maneuvering with these licensing deals? If/when it is the dominant brand leader of California, the equity value premium would lead to some far better lucrative licensing deals or does he continue to opportunistically take the cash now and sign more deals like he recently did with AWH.

[GSWarrior831]

The way I see it is, the integration of both companies was a win/win. Lowell has a brand but does not produce product internally. Indus has the product but lacked nation wide brand recognition. Has to be good the gross margin in the long run....

[GSWarrior831]

Lowell acquisition was not about California. Lowell will help take Indus nationwide, that’s why they integrated. The only way to truly know if one product is better than the next is to try them all. Buy and hold.....

[kahlua]

Agreed. I have my cores and then try and trade it now and again for some spending money...
Since I’m clueless to the real brand value that George espouses, what’s your take on Lowell smokes? Do you think this “lightning in a bottle” brand really has the long growth runway in California that George seems to believe it has? As a user is the product really head and shoulders above most premium brand competition? Since there are so many brands coming out of Cali, it’s hard as an outsider to discern the hype from reality.

[GSWarrior831]

This is a buy and hold stock. They are a local company for me and I’m very familiar inside and out. You can try to trade it daily but you’re going to miss that big pop.

[kahlua]

Thanks for the link. This brand has so many miles of runway in front of it. I truly believe they could exit 2021 on a 60M run rate on just the Lowell flower and pre rolls.

[Marillionaire]

Need some dabs in your life? #LowellDirect has all of your Concentrates needs covered!

Shop our collection of Artisan Hash & Rosin at the link below 🍯https://t.co/tohDiNfyxy pic.twitter.com/Mn3xd94WpC

— Lowell Farms (@LowellFarms) March 23, 2021

[Marillionaire]

You clearly know much more of the details then i do , I like there story and the social marketing power that lowell brings , It is my number one Cali play
Got a small mention in this article
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/03/22/the-year-of-cannabis-industry-consolidation/?sh=ccd60b27715c

[kahlua]

Agreed. Economies of scale 101. It’s all about unit economics on the upstream side and the “lightening in a bottle” brand on the downstream side. George intends on capitalizing on both. Not arguing any of the bigger picture points here. I find George’s strategy to be quite remarkable thus far. But I also stand by my cautionary posts. The company needs a lot more cash to get this upstream tailwind. Commodity economics in California also need to stay robust or ebitda projections would collapse. The company also needs to prove they can break the cycle of 3 very poorly executed quarters in a row and to stop blaming exogenous and unforeseen event after event. It sets a very bad precedent and eventually operational leadership must be called into question (and yes I mean Mark) if projections continue to be missed. All imo.

[Marillionaire]

"Its a Brand Play" i am pretty sure thats a direct quote from George Allen ,The square footage lets them bring there supply cost down drastically . Either way they can sell the volumn by building the brand , id prefer the costs to be down as a shareholder.

[kahlua]

George has big big plans but with 25M cash on hand (probably 5M burn in Q1) and the intention to bolt on/build out 1.3M sf of additional cultivation at an estimated cost of 60 to 80M, a significant cash raise appears inevitable. Thus the reason for the 100M shelf prospectus filed in December. A 300M fully diluted share count is looking likely by EOY. If build out and bolt ons are actually completed within 12 to 18 months and the Lowell brand becomes the flower leader in Cali, the 2023 revenue projections will be absolutely monstrous assuming that is that commodity pricing stays strong. All imo

[kahlua]

This entire analysis is based on one very crucial mistake. The share structure being used is before George and Geronimo capital took over last year, which proved to be a very dilutive transaction but without George, Rob probably would have bankrupted the company. The person doing this investment write up neglected to review the current cap table from the corporate presentation which shows fully diluted shares approximately around 245M. There are other points from the analysis I disagree with but when an investor overlooks such a key item as current share structure, it’s probably not worth delving deeper into the misguided price target. All imo

[Marillionaire]

Chairman of the Board George Allen tells Christi Corrado how California-based Lowell Farms Inc aims to become the largest #cannabis producer in the US in next 12 months
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/944151/lowell-farms-aiming-to-become-the-largest-cannabis-producer-within-the-us-in-next-12-months-944151.html

[Marillionaire]

https://cannabisinvestingnewsletter.com/2021/03/21/lowell-farms-push-towards-31-50-formerly-indus-holdings-lowlf-indxf/

[kahlua]

Anyone here have any theories as to why liquidity in this stock has completely dried up since the Lowell transition? It is a rather concerning development leading to some pretty wild price swings and it does not bode well for a future capital raise, which I view as quite likely due to the aggressive cultivation expansion plans over the next 12 months. In one of George’s recent interviews he stated unequivocally how important trade volume is in a stock stating that it’s “a proxy for a company’s ability to access capital markets for growth opportunities” so let’s hope this daily trade volume is an anomaly and picks back up toward average daily volume near 300K shares.

[MADDSTACKER]

Hello ,, I grabbed some.

[Marillionaire]

notes from the Indus Holdings 02 Mar 2021 conference call:

The Lowell Farms Synergy: 1+1 = 3

+ Lowell Herb's cannabis raw material cost will be reduced from $1,000/LB (spot market) to "below $400/LB" (Indus in-house).

+ Indus Holdings wholesale cannabis will swing over to higher priced Lowell Farms Name-Brand products

[georgie18]

LOWLF...$1.59s clearing here...:party:

[kahlua]

RS downside potential just doesn’t look complete yet imo. You may complete your partial.

[nowwhat2]

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=lowlf&x=0&y=0&time=100&startdate=1%2F1%2F2019&enddate=3%2F16%2F2021&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9

[georgie18]

LOWLF...filled a partial on my $1.48 bid...4200 filled out of 10,000...added on the name change to my core position...:party:

[Renee]

Indus Holdings Inc., INDXF, changed to Lowell Farms Inc., LOWLF:

https://otce.finra.org/otce/dailyList?viewType=Symbol%2FName%20Changes