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Oil will return, with the usual vengance....
Bought some lstmf today, at 3.30 a share.
Hoping I got in in time, for the divi.
If not, future divis will suffice.
Wish I had gotten in, down in the 2.50 range recently.
Time will tell....
Crude oil’s ‘Class A’ divergence suggests a bullish trend reversal
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oils-class-a-divergence-suggests-a-bullish-trend-reversal-2014-11-24
3 factors that should support oil prices
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/11/19/3-factors-that-should-support-oil-prices/?__lsa=e7fa-fa48
Takeover possibility?
In 2009 I bought shares in Harvest Energy that once traded as high as $35CAD, but due its very high debt level and other issues I was able to get them for about $3.50CAD a share, shortly afterwards I sold them for about $7.50CAD a share about a week or two afterwards, the management announced that they had accepted an offer of about $10.50CAD a share for Harvest Energy, from a state owned Korean oil company.
I have accumulated 45,000 shares in LTS much more than I had in Harvest Energy, and I have no intention of selling any of them at this time.
Venezuela willing to cut oil output along with OPEC: minister
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-venezuela-oil-idINKCN0J424X20141120
Received a downgrade from the Canadian side today.
Article in Motley Fool:
Lightstream Resources Ltd.
Light oil producer Lightstream Resources Ltd.’s (TSX: LTS) share price has been hit hard, almost halving over the last year. This can be attributed to weaker oil prices along with the market having lost confidence in Lightstream after it was forced to slash its dividend and capital expenditures to reduce leverage and preserve capital at the end of 2013.
As a result, Lightstream now appears incredibly cheap, trading with an enterprise value of a mere four times EBITDA and 18 times its oil reserves. This is despite the company’s considerable progress with its turnaround strategy, completing a range of non-core asset sales ahead of schedule and successfully making over its balance sheet.
More importantly, despite these asset sales, Lightstream still holds a portfolio of high-quality, low-decline-rate oil assets with oil reserves of 173 million barrels.
The company continues to generate one of the best operating margins in the patch, with a netback of $57.49 per barrel for the second quarter of 2014. This netback is superior to the majority of players in the patch and is higher than the industry wide average for oil companies operating North America of $42 per barrel.
More importantly as Lightstream’s production continues to mature, decline rates will fall further reducing the amount of cash required to sustain production. This will free up additional cash flow, which can be directed to boosting cash reserves and further paying down debt.
With a dividend yield of 12% Lightstream pays one of the juiciest yields in the patch and when coupled with an overall payout ratio of 14% it certainly appears sustainable.
Clearly, Lightstream is underappreciated by the market and with such a cheap valuation, it may only be a matter of time before it is considered a takeover target. This would certainly act as a catalyst to drive its share price higher.
was researching institutional ownership since September came up with 665,934 shares bought to 132,320 shares sold does anybody have data that is different? (meaning MORE shares either way NOT less either way which would indicate dated info)
Just heard an analyst on BNN talking about oil and the next few years, and he right away spoke of companies cutting their dividends.
Vote of confidence to see buying but it looks as if theyre wrong on the timing. I wonder how much the drop in oil is accounting for the losses here.
looks like almost 27,000 shares bought by Charles schwabb on 10-7-14
Its just a matter of if, or how well the company will survive to changes coming to oil transportation. Remember, LSTMF produces one of the most volatile types of oil. Im a fan, but can they hang on. The divy, cut once already, will be the first to go if things get rough. Thats why the downward trend.
institutional buying to selling ratio from July to September is 1,101,381 shares bought to 456,829 shares sold according to latest Morningstar info: http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-buying.html?t=LSTMF®ion=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
(click "institutions" tab
Is The 10.7% Dividend Safe For Lightstream Resources? What Is The Downside Risk? by David Braunstein, CFA
This article was published on Fri, Oct. 3, 10:46 PM ET
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2539855-is-the-10_7-percent-dividend-safe-for-lightstream-resources-what-is-the-downside-risk?uprof=46
Canadian oil stocks seeing as being very undervalued
Inside the Market Blog
Friday, September 26, 2014, 13:43:54
Sprott’s Eric Nuttall: Canadian oil stocks now ‘very’ undervalued
Eric Nuttall
Eric Nuttall, a guest columnist for Inside the Market, is portfolio manager of the Sprott Energy Fund.
The Canadian energy sector has experienced one of the worst monthly corrections in recent memory, with many oil stocks down by more than 20 per cent. Perhaps a little perspective is in order.
I queried a handful of Canadian oil executives this past week after the stock market pummeling, asking "how's business." The universal reply was "great."
One might have expected a more dour answer.
But consider the following: Despite oil having sold off this month by about 3.5 per cent in U.S.-dollar terms, when you take into account the positive impact of the falling loonie and the marginal shrinking of the Canadian light differential, the price of oil is down less than 2 per cent.
Further, given the continued efficiency improvements in how wells in many oil plays are being drilled and fracture stimulated, oil well economics today are the highest they have been in decades. I routinely see wells paying out in under a year, which speaks to the impressive returns that these oil executives are seeing.
Finally, the oil executives pointed out that service-cost inflation - the rise in costs for such things as drilling rigs and labour - is essentially non-existent, and that drilling and pressure pumping equipment availability is not a problem. In short, business is indeed great and they foresee another strong year in 2015 of impressive production gains that will generate excellent investment returns.
Now, if I were to ask the average investor how they feel about the energy sector right now, I would expect their answer to be the exact opposite of the rosy responses of those in the business, given the daily shellacking of oil stocks and the negative feedback loop that it has created.
Herein lies the opportunity and an example of why it is important to see the difference between perception and reality.
The current perception is that the price of crude oil is down because the Chinese economy is weak and suddenly demand has declined, that a strong U.S. dollar means a lower oil price, and that oil stocks are overvalued. The exact opposite is true. China has been weak all year even when Brent oil was over $120 (U.S.) a barrel, global oil demand has strongly rebounded from the lows seen in the second quarter, and the correlation between the US. dollar/euro exchange rate and oil is virtually non-existent over more than a three-week period. I would argue that the energy sector sell-off is due solely to the broader market correction and nothing fundamental to the energy industry. In my view, Canadian oil stocks are now very undervalued.
Fools call market bottoms and buy into the group think of the day. Shrewd investors identify when the difference between perception and reality becomes too large to ignore while allowing for the possibility that such circumstances can persist for a time. Today I can buy many mid-cap light oil companies that are down 20 per cent month-to-date, and as a result, are now trading below 4 times 2015 enterprise value to cash flow. They are all growing production by at least 15 per cent to 20 per cent next year and have strong balance sheets that can withstand any short-term volatility. Some are even paying sustainable dividend yields of 5 per cent or more.
This opportunity rarely occurs. The risk-reward in the oil sector today is the best I have seen in several years. I myself recently purchased shares in Legacy Oil + Gas Inc. and Gear Energy Ltd. during the pullback for my own fund, among others.
See the reality of today and don’t buy into the market’s misplaced perception. From my experience, this can be a setup to highly profitable times as fundamentals eventually win out and stocks again reflect them.
OPEC Hints It May Act to Stop Oil Price Slide
Oil Price 09/18/2014
Oil prices may have gone as low as OPEC is willing to tolerate.
After several months of price declines, the secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says the group may cut its production target for 2015 because of an abundance of supply.
The oil cartel accounts for around 40 percent of the world’s oil supply, and although its influence has diminished in recent years as oil output has risen — from the United States in particular — the organization can still significantly impact the price of crude if it wants to.
With weak demand and a flood of American oil hitting the markets, prices have dropped to their lowest levels in over two years.
And it appears that the price slide has gone too far for OPEC. OPEC’s Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said the group could slash its production target — the collective output of the 12-member group — to 29.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2015, down 500,000 bpd from its previous target.
“Our production will be maybe 29.5 million barrels per day in 2015, not 30 million barrels,” at OPEC headquarters in Vienna on Sept. 16. But he added, “This is an outlook, not a decision.”
WTI and Brent prices have each dropped about 13 percent since June. Investors have been bearish on crude due to weak demand and a global supply that is expected to continue to climb. Saudi Arabia didn’t make much news when it cut back by 400,000 bpd in August.
But El-Badri’s statement hinting at an official revision in OPEC’s production target woke up oil traders. The two benchmarks clawed back immediately after his comments — WTI gained almost $2 to just below $95 per barrel in intraday trading, or a more than 2 percent increase. Brent jumped by 1.22 percent, closing in on the $100 per barrel mark.
That’s because the statement is the first indication in quite some time that OPEC would officially move to stop a continued slide in prices.
[Hear: Peak Oil Update: Delayed but Not Forgotten!]
What is more intriguing is the exact price level that triggered concern on behalf of OPEC’s leaders. Once upon a time, oil trading around $100 per barrel was extremely expensive. But OPEC has become used to Brent crude trading well above those levels, which it has done almost constantly since early 2011.
Why have OPEC’s expectations changed? Part of the reason is that the marginal cost of producing a barrel of oil is rising. As easy-to-get oil depletes, oil companies are left with more expensive oil, so the cost of production rises.
But for OPEC, it has more to do with balancing their budgets. The biggest change since the era of lower prices was the Arab Spring, which led to substantial unrest. In response, oil producing countries in the Middle East decided to significantly increase social spending in order to keep their populaces happy. Now, need a much higher price to balance their books.
Before that point — throughout most of 2010, for example – Brent was only selling for between $70 and $85 per barrel. That is around 15 to 30 percent lower than today’s prices. But at the time, OPEC was entirely content with those levels. They repeatedly left the group’s production target steady, even during what seemed like a period of relatively cheap prices (by today’s standards).
And that is just it. Today, $100 per barrel is considered “cheap.” But four years ago, the group aimed for oil to stay between $70 and $80 per barrel. When Brent hit $82, Kuwait’s oil minister said that was “fantastic.”
That means there could be a permanent floor beneath oil prices at somewhere in the mid-$90 per barrel range. OPEC’s members cannot sustain prices any lower than that, so it will slash production in order to avoid ever going back to the days of oil selling between $70 and $80 per barrel.
By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com
As energy prices dip, be choosy in picking oil patch dividend payers
Tim Shufelt
INVESTMENT REPORTER — The Globe and Mail
Published Monday, Sep. 01 2014, 6:35 PM EDT
Last updated Tuesday, Sep. 02 2014, 6:09 AM EDT
Lower energy prices are putting pressure on investors to be more selective in hunting for income in the oil patch.
There are still good energy companies paying substantial dividends, but sorting them from the riskier high-yield names becomes more of a priority when commodities weaken.
The generosity of some “divcos,” as they’re known, to their own shareholders is largely predicated on high oil and gas prices.
“Some management teams operate on hope. That’s their business model,” said Eric Nuttall, a portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management.
A new breed of energy company pursing aggressive growth and promising sizable distributions has emerged in the oil patch to the delight of Canadian income investors.
With few alternatives for yield, and with money flooding back into the oil patch over the last year, divco stocks have soared.
Some companies have taken on debt and taken advantage of renewed access to equity markets to support their dividend programs. Some with less-than-top-tier assets have pursued growth through acquisitions to maintain production levels.
The sustainability of that model is tied to commodity prices.
This year, both West Texas Intermediate and benchmark natural gas futures hit their highest levels since 2011. But as the effects of winter wore off and a cool summer limited energy demand, prices have dipped back down. Since mid-June, oil has fallen by almost 10 per cent and natural gas by 15 per cent.
That’s not quite enough of a pullback to expose all of the inadequacies of the sector’s flimsier firms, said Ryan Bushell, a portfolio manager at Leon Frazer.
“If the commodity price stays favourable, they might never get found out. But there will be volatility at some point either in the market, or in the commodity, or both. That’s when the downside comes on pretty quick.”
Even some of the more reputable names, such as Whitecap Resources Inc., are maintaining cash flow through acquiring assets past their prime, with high decline rates, Mr. Bushell said. “That’s a tricky thing. All it takes is a miscalculation on one of the deals, or the commodity price to turn against them, or the market to be a little more volatile.” He said he prefers companies owning assets where future production has more upside, like Crescent Point Energy Corp.
When divcos have come under earnings pressure for whatever reason, they have proven reluctant to reduce dividends for fear of the market’s wrath.
“They’re loath to cut their dividends, so they rack up debt,” said John O’Connell, chief executive officer of Davis Rea. “The poster children of that are Long Run Exploration Ltd. and Lightstream Resources Ltd., which destroyed their balance sheets paying out dividends.”
Investors, in their zeal for dividends, may not be fully appreciating the risks and may not be properly distinguishing the safer dividend payers.
But it’s not difficult to assess the sustainability of a company’s dividend, Mr. Nuttall said.
Investors should first consider a company’s payout ratio, which expresses dividends per share as a percentage of earnings per share. Anything higher than 100 per cent is a warning sign.
Also, a company should be generating substantial cash beyond what is needed to maintain production and pay out dividends.
That figure amounts to about $110-million for Whitecap next year, by his estimates. “If you’re wondering if their dividend is sustainable or not, that’s a huge safety cushion. If the commodity price falls, it has a buffer.”
On the other hand, he would recommend steering clear of Surge Energy Inc., another company that has quickly expanded production through acquisitions.
“They’ve yet to show they’re confident drillers. It’s more been a financial entity, buying barrels. But eventually every oil and gas company has to go drill.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/as-energy-prices-dip-be-choosy-in-picking-oil-patch-dividend-payers/article20294273/
Id hardly liken LTS to Penn West as they got caught cooking the books whereas LTS just downgraded guidance.
$LTS.TO, $LTS - When the market freaks out, rejoice: http://buysidenotes.com/2014/08/14/lightstream-lts-when-the-market-freaks-out-rejoice/
well the institutions are not selling at least not yet....only institutional transaction I can find for july is a buy for 15,000 shares from Charles Schwab guess I will hold on and ride the big boys coat tails they are not always right but they win more often than not
LOOKS LIKE....It's dropping like a rock..... I'll wait til its down to 5ish dollars again....Then I'll buy.....JMO.
LOOKS LIKE 6:1 NOW according to latest Morningstar and 4:1 according to MSN
seems to be a 10:1 buy/sell ratio from institutions last 8 weeks anybody have any info that says different?...I do not have great institutional info from my paid service but going by free MSN/Morningstar info
Just exchange and depends on the volume. It will correct itself but I dont think it will ever be symetrical.
Lightstream Resources ($LTS.CA ) - 3x. Eventually. http://buysidenotes.com/2014/07/15/lightstream-lts-3x-eventually/
Lightstream ($LTS) – A Multi-Bagger in the Making: http://buysidenotes.com/2014/06/26/lightstream-lts-a-multi-bagger-in-the-making/
hmm it goes from under 5 bucks to over 8 bucks and no one has anything to say???
New article on Lightstream resources from Motley Fool
3 Key Signs Lightstream Resources’ Turnaround Is Working
By Matt Smith - May 22, 2014
Troubled intermediate oil producer Lightstream Resources (TSX: LTS) continues to report solid operational and financial results, indicating that its strategic turnaround program is working. This is despite the volatile outlook for the price of crude and the flood of Canadian oil and gas assets on the market as a range of players in Canada’s oil patch seek to reinvent themselves and dispose of non-core assets.
See link below for more on the article.
http://www.fool.ca/2014/05/22/3-key-signs-lightstream-resources-turnaround-is-working/
institutional buying to selling ratio last few months has been 488,000 bought 2,700 sold according to msn money
I see institutions are buying so that's enough for me to hang on to my few measly shares
and I bought more again today - not a lot, but I'm thinking we are going to see an ok first quarter and a strong 2nd quarter
I remember ENERGY AND CAPITAL saying this was a "strong buy" at over 20.00 when it was called Petro bakken....then continuing to say "strong buy" when it hit 15....haw ENERGY AND CAPITAL are WRONG 90% of the time from my experience they have had plenty of other flops like "strong buy" on gasfrac when it was 8 bucks...
however,it looks like now it may finally be a good buy I got a few
small insider buy from Canadian Edge - better than a sell
As of 11:59pm ET April 24th, 2014
Lothian, E. Craig
Acquisition in the public market 10,000
Common Shares 10 - $6.75
http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=lts
another article from Motley Fool -
again they like the opportunity with LTS
they are thinking there is light at the end of the tunnel
for investors
http://www.fool.ca/2014/04/25/is-there-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-for-lightstream/
I suppose I'm in a bit of a sour mood. My comment on the SA article:
There is a long line of recommendations over the past four years stating LSTMF is undervalued/oversold. And at the time of each writing, it's true; they were. Here we are again and, again, it's true; they are. I am reminded, however, of the movie "Now You See It". The facts are the redirection that take our eyes off of the most significant point: Now you don't.
I don't know for sure but i
have positions in ENB,trp,ENY
and VLO and of course lstmf.
A keystone approval would be
almost impossible to keep quiet.
Maybe the stocks are sniffing
it out...we'll see.
The canadian dollar has been moving
up as well the past few days and like
you mentioned oil prices are appreciating
Maybe a combination of factors are at play.
Interesting observation. I'm ready for LSTMF to reverse course, but can your observation be teased apart from rising oil prices though? See DIG, OIH.
Ciao,
Minding
The Keystone benificiary co's
are really moving, ENB,TRP,VLO,ENY
Wondering if Keystone approval
might be imminent? Just an observation
i wanted to pass along. Hopefully
LSTMF will make a move as well.
cheers...
Management hasn't been doing what they need to do and have said they would be doing ... other than lowering the dividend and some minor selling of assets. They must reduce debt and they aren't satisfactorily.
Best to all.
Good article! thanks for posting.
From Motley Fool - again thinks it is a buy according to the end of the article
http://www.fool.ca/2014/03/12/can-lightstream-resources-ever-bounce-back/
Well, a few months ago I would have said youd be safe at 5. Your biggest concerns are, mostly, what will happen to transport costs for bakken oil.
Secondly, and yes Im still yelpin about this, the markets in general are far overextended. Dont trust me just read the bearish articles that come out almost daily. Of course there are bullish ones as well. Should we get a significant market correction Lightstream may see $4.
I dont rate this quite as high as I used to but I still feel it will be solid going forward. The involvement of W. Brett Wilson is a large part of that, IF he remains in the fold. This is moving much too slow right now for his usual liking.
I do not hold any at the moment as Ive taken a very defensive position awaiting the correction. Maybe? Maybe not?
Thats my take on things, IMO anyways. GL
And, yet more shares today - only about 5,000 total in last two weeks - can't help myself at these prices - I sure hope insiders knew what they were doing a month ago with those large purchases. 1st quarter should show higher prices than the 4th quarter - maybe get a bounce with release of numbers tomorrow as the price seems already to be discounted on news
Hi Otterman, How cheap do you think
is real cheap? I really don't feel
any confidence in management to look
out for my interests.There are much
better opportunities out there IMO.
What do you think a Keystone approval would
do here?
- Bakken oil is getting a rough ride due to the explosions
- The dividend was cut and some are finally giving up
- Wait for the correction and it will be real cheap
I still think this will survive and be a solid company in the future.
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