Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
We can easily search for their top picks using the handy CAPS screener. For example, we can search for stocks with:
At least 100 All-Star Outperform picks.
Insider ownership of more than 20%.
Doing that returns the following:
Company Name
CAPS Rating (5 max)
All-Star Outperform Picks
All-Star Underperform Picks
% Insider-Owned
Leucadia National (NYSE: LUK)
*****
152
8
21%
Cabela's (NYSE: CAB)
*****
145
9
22%
ShengdaTech (Nasdaq: SDTH)
*****
140
4
44%
Metalico (AMEX: MEA)
*****
137
6
25%
TBS International (Nasdaq: TBSI)
****
104
18
28%
It is plagerism from Seeking Alpha. I should have put it in italics. It was a part of a longer analysis that included other companies.
Is this your due diligence? Or are you guilty of plagiarism? lol!
Fairholme Capital, led by Bruce Berkowitz, runs a pretty focused portfolio and I found their most recent filing very interesting:
Berkowitz’s two largest new positions were big stakes in Boeing (BA) and Northrop Grumman (NOC), the win-win US tanker contract trade, if you will. I have both on my watchlist and keep in mind that Berkowitz bought in around $60 on the two stocks; both are trading around $40 now and near 4% yield. I feel like I need to do more research to get the defense industry into my circle of competence but if I thought there was value in those two stocks before, Berkowitz’s bet piques my interest even more.
Berkowitz can’t be accused of lacking conviction. He added heavily to his healthcare positions, increasing his Pfizer (PFE) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) by over 20% and Forest Labs (FRX) by nearly 50%. It looks like he’s reversed his selling on Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), adding back 46% of his position as the stock has dropped. Berkowitz still believed in Eddie Lampert at Sears (SHLD), at least as of Q3 (remember that SHLD has fallen from $90 to under $40 now). And perhaps most interestingly, he continued the accumulation of Leucadia National (LUK), adding 36% more shares after adding over 10% last quarter. At the time, LUK was trading in the mid $40 range but now trades under $18. Might be time to dig into LUK, which is sometimes lumped in with Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) since both have reputations as “mini-Berkshires.”
Jeffries is a "black box" within the "black box" that is Leucadia. The LUK principals have always kept their cards close to the vest.
Transparency is desirable at the moment and hard to find. I think this one will hit the single digits before it's over.
I'll pick up a little then.
Probably. I wouldn't think they can record their holdings at "fair value" forever. If the markets don't recover soon, they'll have to record 'em at huge losses.....
That's the big question....just like it used to be the stock that continued going up....this one now seems to be the one that keeps going down.
When it started trading below $30 I thought wow....time for an option play....then at $25 and now at $20....Now I don't know what to think.
RK
Its cheap, but is it going to get cheaper?
Hmmmm? Is it time to get clever here?
This "cleverly" business is difficult to grasp - lol
$4.00 swing off it's low. 25%. Too bad I hadn't acted cleverly this morning.... :~)
I wonder how long they can record their holdings at fair value? I'd think that eventually they'd have to write 'em off if they don't return to those levels....
I noticed they recorded a ton of their holdings at "fair value". Makes it look much better than it actually is.
They also have holdings in a penny stock....... lol! Trading around $25.00 per share though....
LOL! The phone's probably ringing off the hook at Hartcourt central. Leukadia begging for assistance....
The 10Q looks better than most companies these days. I feel some confidence long term.
I do see one problem though...... LUK has fewer shares outstanding than HRCT so they probably need to issue another 50 million shares in exchange for a company with no assets. We wouldn't want LUK to add to the $8 billion in assets they already have...... HRCT could probably give them some assistance in formulating a new business plan so they wouldn't be saddled with all those hard assets.
I feel the same way.
One day I'm wishing I had grabbed a few in the basement......
A few days later I'm thinking do I dare?
Rebounding nicely off it's lows. Darn near 50%.
At this rate we should be able to pick up some 5-6 dollar shares like OSK.
Option traders today pegged Leucadia National for unusually bearish activity, sending overall volume to nine times the normal level. Leucadia -- an eclectic holding company that generated 40% of its revenues last year from telecommunications holdings and nearly one-third from Idaho timber -- has lost some 54% of its market capitalization so far this year. Today's $22.37 share price is a 19.7% drop from Wednesday's levels and a 44% drop from its 50-day price average. Heavy and fresh put buying occurred today at the $25 strike line in November, where put buyers bid up the price more than 200% to $5, WITH this position requiring another $2.50 to the downside to break even, although this strike is now technically in the month. The current share price represents around 12 times Leucadia's earnings. Nearly three-fourths of today's options trading activity fell under the "bearish" rubric according to data...
Speaking of tanking.........
Could insider information be leaking?
More than 5% of the total float traded today. Not very common for NYSE stocks.
Options update---
Leucadia National Corp. (LUK) – The company has a diversity of operations from manufacturing to lending and includes medical product development. We see no reason in the news that this company is on our market scanners today other than the 15.75% share price decline to $23.50 has created heavy demand for put options. In the November contract buyers paid 3.20 premium to secure the right to sell the shares at the 25 strike by expiration. Since these were bought the puts are deeper in the money and premiums are rising fast. In the January contract there was demand for around 1,000 puts at a premium of around 1.0 indicating that buyers see significant further downside in the stock. In both cases the positions initiated today far exceed the current open interest at the strike prices.
Something is definitely up.... and it doesn't look like good news.
Might have an institutional investor dumping.
Volume's 300% of average. And it's only 1 o'clock.
With this kind of drop, apparently someone thinks they are going to show a loss.
Earnings due in a couple weeks. Folks must be expecting poor numbers.
Drink up!!!
Crimson Wine Group acquires Central Coast’s Domaine Alfred winery
San Francisco Business Times - by Chris Rauber
Crimson Wine Group, a new unit of New York investment group Leucadia National Corp., hopes to complete the acquisition of Domaine Alfred Winery, an Edna Valley producer that specializes in high-end pinot noir and chardonnay, by Thursday, Aug. 28, officials said Monday.
Erle Martin, Crimson’s president and CEO, said the Napa-based wine group, which specializes in luxury wines, expects to close the deal this week, acquiring the San Luis Obispo winery and its highly regarded Chamisal vineyard. The seller is Domaine Alfred owner and founder Terry Speizer, both sides of the deal confirmed.
Martin declined to disclose the deal’s purchase price or how much publicly traded Leucadia (NYSE: LUK) is investing in Crimson. “We see a potential to add value, but I can’t quantify that,” he said. “We tend to keep a low profile,” referring to both Crimson and parent Leucadia.
Crimson was formed a year ago, in August 2007, according to Martin. Domaine Alfred produced its first vintage in 1998. The then-dormant vineyard was acquired by Speizer in 1994, according to the winery’s web site.
Assuming the deal goes through as planned, The Crimson Wine Group would include Domaine Alfred; Pine Ridge Vineyards, located in Napa’s Stags Leap District; Archery Summit Winery, in Oregon’s Dundee Hills; and Double Canyon Vineyards, a new winery in eastern Washington’s Horse Heaven Hills that will release its first vintage in the fall of 2009.
“In addition to its rich history, the vineyard has been consistently producing outstanding wines under the guidance of winemaker Fintan du Fresne,” Martin said in an Aug. 25 statement. The Chamisal vineyard was the first planted in 1972, then replanted in 1996 with six pinot noir clones, five chardonnay clones, and several classic Rhone varieties including Grenache and Syrah. The core Domaine Alfred wines are priced from $24 to $60 a bottle, according to Crimson.
Linda Parker, a spokeswoman for the Crimson Wine Group, said Domaine Alfred produced 24,000 cases last year. A spokeswoman for the Edna Valley winery said Monday that Speizer wasn’t immediately available to answer questions, but confirmed that the deal with Crimson Wine Group is under way.
I don't know. Since they invest on the Buffet model I assume everything is looked at in the very long term. Owning a MM doesn't mean they are buying the securities but primarily gaining income from acting as the broker.
Their winery just acquired another winery.
Diversification is great, but what are the percentages of the segments expected to suffer?
including a broker-dealer engaged in making markets and trading of high yield and special situation securities
Hmmmmm? Hope it isn't any of those packaged toxic mortgages.
Our best bet will be winery operations. Lots of folks going to be drinking their sorrows away.....
Leucadia National Corporation (Leucadia) is a diversified holding company engaged in a variety of businesses, including manufacturing, telecommunications, property management and services, gaming entertainment, real estate activities, medical product development and winery operations. The Company also owns equity interests in operating businesses and investment partnerships, including a broker-dealer engaged in making markets and trading of high yield and special situation securities, land-based contract oil and gas drilling, real estate activities and development of a copper mine in Spain. The Company’s operating segments include Manufacturing, Telecommunications, Property Management and Services, Domestic Real Estate, Medical Product Development and Other Operations.
Revenues: $1.3 billion
Income: $537.6 million - Net profit margin 53.02%
I don't know to what extent they're involved in real estate, manufacturing, banking and lending, but, it's got to affect the bottom line in upcoming quarters.
Could get much cheaper.
Buffet's "small" company investment.
GATX Corp:
500 West Monroe Street
Chicago IL 60661
http://www.gatx.com
Phone: 312-6216200 Fax: 312-6216646
Industry : Rental & Leasing ServicesEmployees : 2,094Exchange : NYSE
GATX Corporation (GATX) leases, operates and manages long-lived, used assets in the rail, marine and industrial equipment markets. GATX also invests in joint ventures that complement existing business activities. Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, the Company has three business segments: Rail, Specialty and American Steamship Company (ASC). As of December 31, 2007, GATX had balance sheet assets of $4.7 billion, comprised of railcars, marine vessels and joint venture investments. GATX also utilized approximately $1.2 billion of assets, primarily railcars, which were leased-in under operating leases. During the year ended December 31, 2006, GATX entered into an agreement to sell the majority of its aircraft leasing business to Macquarie Aircraft Leasing Limited (MALL). The sale was completed in two stages: the sale of wholly owned aircraft closed on November 30, 2006, and the sale of partnered aircraft closed on January 17, 2007.
It will probably be the best performer because I haven't bought more.
I still thing that in the long run, LUK has the potential to perform like Berkshire Hathaway.
I feel really comfortable with my holdings here.
Potential Post-Crisis Stock Shopping List
by: Thomas Smicklas October 13, 2008 | about stocks: AFL / CNH / ESV / LUFK / LUK / LVMUY.PK / NE / RIG / SLB / TMK / TRH / UTX
Thomas Smicklas
As I posted late last week, it is time to begin making a list of those beaten down sectors and individual securities that may bring life back to your portfolio(s) in the future. I am not, repeat -NOT - recommending immediate purchase. The markets are still too destabilized for considered actions unless your objective is pure speculation.
I am beginning to do screens featuring the worst performing sectors over the past year. Amongst these include Energy (down 40.46%), Financials (down 38.60%), Capital Goods (down 39.80%) and Conglomerates (down 44.50%).
One could consider buying the ETFs for these sectors, perhaps through iShares. However, for the brave, looking at individual stocks for your list might be the way to obtain some very handsome returns.
Here are a few stocks within the above sectors that feature an interesting profit margin [TTM] vs. their five year profit margin average. All have been beaten to death.
(ESV) - Ensco International
(LVMUY.PK) - Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton ADR
(LUK) - Leucadia National Corp.
(UTX) - United Technologies
(NE) - Noble Drilling
(SLB) - Schlumberger
(RIG) - TransOcean
(LUFK) - Lufkin Industries
(CNH) - CNH Global NV
(TMK) - Torchmark Corp.
(TRH)- Transatlantic Holdings
(AFL) - Aflac
I purposely did not include any data to whet your appetite. At this juncture, I believe it is vital for the individual investor to do primary research solo to select stocks or ETFs that fit one's endurance level.
I will be adding more securities to investigate on a regular basis, with more supportive data as the market makes it way.
I have been "on the road" the past few days with real estate the focus of my attention. Granted, the market in real estate is brutal - just the right time for those with cash to make a move.
Leucadia National Corporation Announces Six Month 2008 Results
Thursday August 7, 5:13 pm ET
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Leucadia National Corporation (LUK – NYSE) today announced its operating results for the six month period ended June 30, 2008. During 2008, the Company recorded an adjustment that reduced the deferred tax valuation allowance and credited income tax expense by $222,200,000. The adjustment results from the Company’s conclusion that it is more likely than not that it will have future taxable income sufficient to realize that portion of the net deferred tax asset. Net income was $90,954,000 or $.39 per diluted common share for the six month period ended June 30, 2008 compared to net income of $34,673,000 or $.16 per diluted common share for the six month period ended June 30, 2007.
Its a safe long term investment.
This guy saw it coming 3 years ago.............
15/10/05
Personal Debts and US Capitalism
by Rick Wolff
There is no precedent in US -- or any other -- history for the level of personal debt now carried by the American people. Consider the raw numbers. In 1974, Federal Reserve data show that US mortgage plus other consumer debt totaled $627 billion. By 1994, the total debt had risen to $4,206 billion, and by 2004, it reached $9,709 billion. For the second quarter of 2005, the Fed announced that the nation's debt service ratio (debt payments as a percentage of after-tax income) was 13.6%, the highest since the Fed began recording this statistic in 1980. Past borrowing now costs Americans so much in debt service that more borrowing is required to maintain, let alone expand consumption.
These facts raise two questions: what caused this mountain of debt to arise and what are its consequences? Answering these questions is an urgent matter since, as has been known for centuries, the risks of high debt include economic collapse.
Since the real wages of most workers stagnated or fell since 1975, they responded partly by borrowing to maintain or raise their living standards. Over the last twenty five years, ever more enterprises (stock brokers, insurance companies, lending branches of industrial corporations, etc.) are seeking high profits by offering easier loans (credit cards, basic mortgages, home equity lines, mortgage refinancing, tax-refund advances, etc.). After the stock market bubble burst in 2000, the Federal Reserve tried to contain the damage by drastic, sustained cuts in interest rates. Already debt-addicted, US households responded to cheap, available credit by borrowing much more.
Historically low interest rates and intense competition among lenders drew millions of Americans into borrowing to buy a first home. Not only the native-born exchanged rental apartments for "the American dream." Millions of immigrants borrowed to partake of that dream too. Millions of other Americans borrowed for costly home expansions and renovations. The resulting boom in residential construction and its dependent industries partly offset the depressive economic effects of the stock market bubble burst in 2000. A stock market bubble gave way to a housing bubble. As housing prices were bid up, homeowners' "equity" in houses rose, and that allowed them to borrow still more with their higher "home equity" as collateral.
In all debt-based economic upswings, the crucial issue is: How long will lenders keep feeding rising debt demands? Nowadays, banks lending to US homeowners usually resell that debt to investors in the form of "mortgage-backed securities." Because the US government is believed to guarantee those securities, more or less, investors around the world have been buying them. The two biggest buyers recently have been banks in Japan and the People's Republic of China. They are therefore -- and note the irony -- among the biggest ultimate recipients of the monthly mortgage payments made by American homeowners. The US housing bubble postpones bursting only so long as Americans keep borrowing and the major housing lenders, including the Japanese and Chinese banks, keep the cycle of rising home prices and rising home indebtedness rolling.
Nothing guarantees that the lending and borrowing binges will continue. Americans' rising debt levels may frighten them into slowing or ending their borrowing. Countless other possibilities from political shifts to military reverses to cultural changes -- including the tougher bankruptcy laws that will take effect on Monday, October 17 -- could likewise reduce Americans' abilities or willingness to borrow. Similarly, all sorts of considerations may dissuade lenders, foreign or domestic, from continuing to provide credit. If and when either the borrowing or the lending slows, the housing bubble will likely burst. As home buying slows, housing prices will stop rising. Inventories of new homes will become difficult to sell, resulting in lower home prices. Housing construction will stop, raising unemployment in that industry and all others dependent on it. Rising unemployment will likely further depress home prices since the unemployed cannot maintain mortgage payments, and so on.
The economic optimism required to keep the Bush regime afloat regularly issues from economists and politicians. They offer reasons why American homeowners will keep borrowing and why lenders will keep providing the credit. Because rising home prices have made American homeowners richer, they are willing to keep borrowing. Likewise, lenders are willing to provide more credit to richer borrowers. Yet these "reasons" explain nothing; they merely describe the bubble itself. Identical predictions in 1999 promised that rising stock prices enriched stock owners who could then afford more stock purchases at higher prices and so on. Yet, the stock market bubble burst. Why should the same not happen to housing prices?
Some optimists try another line of reasoning. Japan and China will keep lending to US homeowners because, if they do not, a collapse in the US housing market will hurt them. Japan and China depend heavily on sales of their goods to Americans. An economic downturn here will cut demand for their goods and so spread to them. Thus, they have no choice but to support the US economy by endless lending to Americans.
This argument's flaw emerges from a brief look at capitalism's history. Every previous capitalist depression, including the devastating one in 1929, was thought to be impossible because everyone wanted to avoid it since everyone foresaw how a depression would hurt everyone. Today again, US homeowners, businesses and the government want to avoid a burst housing bubble. The Japanese and Chinese banks and government as well as all the other lenders into the US housing boom want the same. The history of capitalism teaches us that what everyone wants provides no guarantee that it will happen. Everyone may want to keep the boom afloat, but because everyone is also hyper-vigilant to get out of a market that seems to be on the way down, once a downturn starts, it can quickly become a collapse.
It has happened many times. Once again, capitalism brings us to a precipice. Surely the human race can devise a better system. And if not now, when?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Down huge on the year. But just what I'm looking for. I think....
The Vanguard 500 Index -- a world-class and dirt-cheap S&P tracker that provides quick and easy exposure to such household names as General Electric (NYSE: GE), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Chevron (NYSE: CVX), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) -- has notched an annualized gain of 11.32%.
To put that in dollars-and-cents terms, an investment of $10,000 on the fund's opening day would have grown to roughly $313,000 today.
That's pretty impressive. He must have some confidence. Nobody risks that kind of money on a whim.
Yeah, he's got 23 million shares now. Worth almost a billion.
Piker! I like to buy in million share round lots - lol
Insiders buying here too. Ian buddy picked up a handful. A mere 385,786 shares.
'Mini-Berkshire' Looks for Value in Eclectic Names
Thursday September 18, 9:35 am ET
By the tickerspy.com Staff
Diversified holding company Leucadia National (NYSE: LUK - News) has frequently been called a "mini-Berkshire Hathaway" (NYSE: BRK-A - News, BRK-B - News) because of the firm's ability to bring in impressive returns from investments in a wide variety of sectors, ranging from medical products, to telecommunications, to wineries.
Chairman and CEO Ian Cumming's and President and COO Joseph Steinberg's biggest move during Q2 was to take a significant stake in investment bank Jefferies (NYSE: JEF - News), helping the company stave off the challenges of the credit crunch. Given that Jeffries has largely avoided the turmoil on Wall Street over the last few weeks, it appears to have been a very shrewd move for both parties. Jeffries CEO Richard Handler recently told Reuters that the funding from Leucadia put the bank "in a position to play offense," even as the rest of Wall Street is in a defensive crouch.
Investors clued into Leucadia's incredible track record have watched the firm's moves closely; an investment in Cumming and Steinberg's firm has returned an astonishing compounded annual growth rate of 33.9% since inception, according to Leucadia's most recent annual report.
Though Leucadia invests in a wide range of firms, it has stakes in only a handful of U.S.-listed equities Aside from Jeffries, Leucadia has been looking selectively for value elsewhere in the financial sector.
Leucadia's most recently disclosed holdings, from the end of Q2, include independent auto finance company Americredit (NYSE: ACF - News; and Leucadia has continued to up its stake there since the end of Q2, according to SEC filings) and financial services firm International Assets Holding Corporation (Nasdaq: IAAC - News). Leucadia also has a very small stake in independent oil and gas company GeoResources (Nasdaq: GEOI - News) and opened a small stake in utility small-cap Maine & Maritimes (AMEX: MAM - News).
In addition, Leucadia has looked overseas. The firm holds a stake in Argentinean agricultural company Cresud (Nasdaq: CRESY - News).
Looking at tickerspy.com's graph charting the performance of Leucadia's end-of-Q2 holdings so far during Q3, one can see that the holdings have been holding up well, though they are showing high volatility. If you want to see how your performance stacks up to this "mini-Berkshire" or to see some other Leucadia holdings, visit tickerspy.com to see the firm's top holdings and a chart of their combined performance.
Well, after having had the possibility of making a few hundred bucks...I had to be satisfied with about a hundred.
No problem. It has really been a hoot to watch the company trade over the last weeks. Pretty volitile.
I'm back on the sidelines.
Randy
Sorry, I didn't know you had posted here. I don't always check the board since it can be slow at times. If you post to me please use the reply function and then I will know by the number on my mailbox that someone is posting.
Well folks, I'm not in the money yet....but so far my options have gone up. Another 8% and my Sept 50 calls will be in the money. The stock is trading pretty strong. Hard to say just where it stops and retraces. Big money on both sides of the deal.
Regards,
Randy
Investorman....Are you still around? I've followed LUK for quite a while and since I'm a fairly small time investor, I've only purchased options.
What are you thoughts?
I just posted this on Yahoo Finance:
Hello, I was looking over the key statistics on yahoo finance and noticed that it says the float is 16.3 Million shares. A little bit lower it says that the sort position is 10.1 Million shares.
If this is anywhere near accurate...I think we could see a pretty serious short squeeze if price continues to trade higher.
BTW, I'm hoping so as I picked up a handful of Sept 50 calls at a dime the other day. A long shot...but it could happen with Fall approaching. We shall see.
Randy
Followers
|
6
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
0
|
Posts (Total)
|
227
|
Created
|
05/07/07
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators |
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |