Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
👌👌👌 LBIE's Legal Team must be in/out of SCOTUS to enable cash in our hands before November 2025, to do right for Lehman's Subordinated Creditors:
Cotton - 100% wanted to say you are exactly right and I tweeted the same. We are both aware of it.
My addition to this was the judge. I am not asking you to be political. But the judge was one who does not like Trump and HATES SCOTUS - which is where this will ultimately save private sector driven markets non-govt ways over doing contracts without the gov't being needed as it is corrupt and we know it.
Besides bankrupting Trump in Spring 2024 Civil "fraud" ... before Kathy HOCHUL or w/e made her this Appellate Court judge (on purpose - look at what we have here being denied justice for 13 years) - Judge from PPl of NY v Trump also was 2019 judge that was ruling against Trump for "defamation case" of a former apprentice show participant WHILE Trump is president. In that case she ODDLY used a ref in her opinion or whatever they call Judges BS for justifying their judgement in favor of suing a damn POTUS in office to reference SCOTUS appointment of Brett Kavanaugh! They hate SCOTUS because since they revoked Chevron, now the Federal regulators weaponized against our middle class and free market capitalism ALSO is subject to judicial review. This is invoked currently against the FHFA robbing our FHLBanks. But I won't get into that other than to point out in a sense, Lehman failed when Fannie and Freddie entered conservatorship and remained FHFA controlled to this day. They used a court legal battle to give Trump control to recapitalize and name his FHFA director after Obama admin and FHFA blocked him to do so until 2019.
So look at the way they weaponized against us and our 2008 fallout and Fannie and Freddie 2008 fallout... It's all tied:
https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/judge-uses-brett-kavanaugh-to-pile-on-trump-in-summer-zervos-decision/
That's the Judge of the Appellate Court that took 10 weeks to deny ISDA enforcement of paying out the CDS after all these years and the most COMMON SENSE appeal to a judge I've ever seen.
Per Andrew Rossman of QE (our warrior and boy scout of a lawyer)
So cotton thank you for sharing that's what I added too. If you want to know why we are going to SCOTUS it's bc Rossman knew who his judge was. It's why it took 2+ months for her clerk to say "no"
And Rossman has taken cases with Quinn Emmanuel (Relentless firm) to SCOTUS before.
Read it - and bank on it. I emailed Andrew Rossman. He will not respond, but I will just say I encouraged him as a shareholder and thanked him for his cool collected and intelligent way to get all the way to SCOTUS.
SCOTUS can pick it up now directly. Rossman (our lawyer) has gone to SCOTUS before.
Clarence Thomas is going to DESTROY this judge just like he destroyed the FHFA since Chevron doctrine revoked on June 28 already has been invoked on the FHFA by a trade group rep the FHLBanks. FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!
We only lost appeal because it needed to get to SCOTUS - the same one AOC wants to impeach for Chevron (don't believe its for any other reasons).
If you know you know.
It is well documented in the case and the derivatives' Industry will stay on course based on the facts below:
33 MEMORANDUM OF LAW (Motion #1919)
Reply Memorandum of Law in Further Support of Motion for Leave to Reargue, or in the Alternative, Le ... show more
https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/DocumentList?docketId=nBhmPgrlziYnQ3JvgTtW2A==&display=all
For a Viable Market Place. Counter Parties Pay.
When you lose, you pay up!
The Derivative Market is using LIBOR litigation as a delay mechanism.
LIBOR Litigation is almost done.
Payment for ABS losses are due back.
CAPS are Cover Notes backed by ABS.
Just awaiting resolution on LIBOR for final payments.
Lehman’s real books are not in the red. Paid $6 Billion in legal fees without DIP financing.
Yes there is a revenue stream.
Reimbursement coming.
Marxist Theorem has never worked anywhere.
Ron
I think small caps have room to run. One guy that seems pretty capable is Tom Lee, Fundstrat, he likes small caps through the year end. The economy does seem to be weakening, those in power may turn on the spigots to get re-elected.
Not investment advice, your mileage may vary in this very crazy world right now.
what is your opinion on small caps? room to run more? bearish?
The real reason to purposely mandate a company that if it waited til post stimmy bailout and QE would not have been told to go file CH 11. If they wait it out they are fine. It seems to be an intentional CH 11 to make new litigation for global companies based in a US global HQ consolidated balance sheet. Without bailout.
Well, there are pending wires. It's not a box with a dead cat or alive cat if you don't open it, it's in both states potentially.
With the wire if its pending it means it's in there, and who knows if it comes out with more that 50B collateral and 5% extra per Repo105 model. What if those Fannie, Freddie, FHLB, and Treasuries come out worth more than in 2008 because the Trump privatization promise, the immediate work to reverse this socialist grip of regulators on their true growth, and other facts I'm too tired to cover. 70% of MBS are bought and sold by GSEs - the AI W2 checks detect fraud and is all electronic and manages risk automatically with thousands of mortgages on banks books. There's a future here. And a hostage past! I have a pending payment for starbucks on my CashApp from 2021. Still just stuck in the ether even though I paid. Some things just jam up!
Still no updates since Rossman and QE made a request for review, reargument or leave to appeal to the NYS Court of Appeals to address a few important legal errors, the worst of which is similar to the recent Chevron doctrine revoked by SCOTUS to leave the interpretation of a company mandate to the judicial review and not corrupt and often look the other way regulators.
Here's co-pilot summing it up nice:
PWC LBIE Update <cr>:
I think they violated 9 years limit.
7.1 Termination of Plan Trust.
(a) The Plan Trust shall terminate on the earlier of: (i) thirty (30) days after the final distribution of all of the Stock Distributions in accordance with the terms of this Trust Agreement, the Plan and the Confirmation Order and the cancellation of the Plan Trust Stock and
11
(ii) the third (3rd) anniversary of the Confirmation Date; provided, however, that, prior to the date of such termination (and the termination of any future extended terms), the Court, upon motion by a party in interest on notice with an opportunity for a hearing, may extend the maximum term of the Plan Trust set forth in this clause (ii) if it is necessary to the liquidation of the assets of the Plan Trust and the Debtors, for a term not to exceed nine (9) years from the Confirmation Date.
(b) Continuance of Trust for Winding Up. After the termination of the Plan Trust and solely for the purpose of liquidating and winding up the affairs of the Plan Trust, the Trustees shall continue to act as such until their duties have been fully performed. At such time, to the extent that any funds remain in the Plan Trust that were provided to the Trustees by LBHI to cover trust expenses, such funds shall be transferred to LBHI in accordance with the Plan. Upon distribution of all assets of the Plan, which shall not include a distribution of the Plan Trust Stock to the Beneficiaries, the Trustees shall retain the books, beneficiary lists, registers, records and files which shall have been delivered to or created by the Trustees. At the Trustees’ discretion, all of such records and documents may be destroyed in accordance with Section 3.3. Except as otherwise specifically provided herein, upon the distribution of all assets of the Plan Trust, the Trustee shall have no further duties or obligations hereunder except the obligations under Section 3.3 hereof.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806085/000119312511339839/d267202dex101.htm
I will second that about Jersey!
Nice way to reference quantum mechanics and Heisenberg!
That's one thing common between the Lehman brothers BK case and quantum mechanics. No one really understands it.
damn right - they are ... somewhere!
o 🇱🇷until 15 December 2024, in any circumstances;🇱🇷
Do you know how much in advance do they request for plan trust extension? Any timeline that we can anticipate if they end up requesting one?
By the way by my estimate it will take 20 years for those banks who were making bets .. Even at a 5 percent reserve requirment.
All banks ran out of cash the 1st week. They were play a game of ratios. A few bets were trading a 20 to one multiplier. , Which was detrimental.
So at a reserve of .05 that means they need 20 years of 5 percent bank profits just to break even from the 2008 GFC. Talk about ruin.
so 2008 plus 20yrs is 2028. The year of the Monkey. Best Wishes Good Business.
There are no requirement for any fsib to hold reserves at the present time. The reserve requirement is ZERO. And banks genereally are not make good any promise that insure against those losses during the GFC. Nor I think we will ever know about any reserves... That they may have. Either at the SEC
or any other plateform. imo
Why they're broke!
The Trustee’s are required to keep the Trusts fully protected.
that part is promising. Thank you to Ron
Thanks Real777.
So few understand that the Derivative Market Meltdown Insurance policies haven’t paid up yet to cover ABS/MBS losses.
CDS/CMO are obligated to cover all of the Trusts losses.
The Trustee’s are required to keep the Trusts fully protected.
Please keep posting on this topic.
Ron
Sending hugs from me and Dick Fuld to you ser. Our reward is in the derivatives and CH 11/.UK Administration pipeline just those pipes are stuck in a bit of a traffic jam. I have confidence in the longevity of this all. Remember no reason to keep litigation and unwinding until this first of its kind global CH 11-SIPA liq- UK Admin and 80+ out of court private settlements with LBHI's subsidiaries leave me quite positive. I would buy more of these if I wasn't blocked from the US. :/
You should be thinking about another Lehman Brothers' Plan Trust Extension. These outstanding legal cases are not going to fade away into the Clouds. It takes many months to write or wait on an Opinion. Appeals and malarkey have cost this bankruptcy years and years and years...at LBHI's cost. LBHI's bankruptcy was used to resolve Financial Industry's instruments grey areas at our cost and time. Reimbursement is required from the industry.
Thank you Mellon for those words.
Your one of the good guys here. Glad to read your thoughts.
By law, pretty much, back interest and a liq min of $25 per share are not just owed, but guaranteed - just CH 11 is still open. Therefore - there's a jam in the pipeline that allows us to get whatever value (known, unknown, and yet to be) to pay our simple guarantees in full - at the very least.
Reminder - you all know since I shared the post that from 2005-2008 there's plenty of places worldwide LBHI was placing its money via various branches and subsidiaries etc. And that's just one reason to think a little differently about this ending.
Read: https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/07/23/100134938/index.htm
Also I've been thru Repo 105 and the securities used but when CH 11 comes after the UK admin begins - things that are used for daily liquidity (repo 105 included) are stuck "off the books" or at the very least are the "Schrödinger's cat" of LBHI accounting/recoveries heh.
Don't forget the shorts that failed to cover before the end of common shares trading in 2012/in limbo bc commons are represented by one "Plan Trust" common share that doesn't trade since March 2012 (and not cancelled entirely) - all said shorts in limbo and not covered have $2.50 USD for each by the lending institution - in one reported case Goldman Sachs is holding $2.50 USD for each $LEH (and $LEHMQ) share it lent out to short sellers who didn't close their position before the end of trading said shares in 2012.
Have to read the cached article and scroll to the bottom for the non-paywalled report: https://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?q=In+this+never-ending+Lehman+short%2c+%24US170%2c000+is+still+on+the+table&d=4827552252966964&mkt=en-US&setlang=en-US&w=EI8pR-mHhMOTUXUDNfpnm0e6N-TpNEHI
Worth reading.
LBIE (In Admin) v. AGFP (Subsidiary of Assured Guaranty Ltd) is ongoing in the Quinn Emmanuel effort to get ISDA 1992 Swap Agreement entered for hundreds of millions even up to a few billion in unpaid CDS paid out in full, according to the ISDA 1992 agreement the parties entered into insuring Lehman's position in MBS (mainly) that should have triggered correct payment according to the ISDA 1992 standards and Quinn Emmanual's argument against the fact that AGFP did not use that for the first time in history of ISDA agreements and could forever wreck the entire derivatives mkt when it comes to CDS. IMO it's a no-brainer this appeal eventually is won by LBIE (in Admin) and Quinn Emmanuel for the good of LBHI since LBIE is on a consolidated balance sheet with LBHI (you can see my past posts on that with links to the 2011 report by examiners of LBHI's accounting practices). It's important to grasp.
Here is the ongoing (and stalled since 5/3/2024) appeal being fought by Quinn Emmanuel (LBIE's lawyers rep out interests in recovering a massive payment from AGFP on CDS' unpaid and really, for the future sanity and importance of all ISDA swap agreements and those currently in place - important not to allow AGFP to win and set a precedent for the agreement to be renegged on just because it didn't go in favor of AGFP in the end when the MBS and CDO markets cratered and LBIE (LBHI) was owed for years of premiums paid to insure against this scenario. Tough titties to AGFP.
Ongoing Appeal Filings Updated Here: https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/DocumentList?docketId=nBhmPgrlziYnQ3JvgTtW2A==&display=all
Many of these interesting factors will be addressed and concluded by the time CH 11 is closed. I am hopeful and quite bullish as to the fact all these unusual instances surrounding the CH 11 exist to begin with. #MLehmanGA and #MAGA to yall
This post was brought to you by optimism, a much needed and well deserved feeling LBHCT PFD holders ought to have heading into the Nov 2025 deadline of wrapping up the UK Admin by PwC UK
Jersey for most polite user on ADVFN boards of 2024.
Kudos on the positive vibes. And yes, let us ride this ONGOING and very very potentially valuable process as it unwinds to the end of CH 11 and new beginning for folks guaranteed a nice payday (ya know like those ECAPS folks in the UK but better).
Save the best for last!
Only $2M coming in and $1M of it spent on operating expense.
Let's see what the next MOR shows.
I sure hope your right.
For everyone's sake.
All I can say is let's see in the end.
Thank you for your educated reply.
It's just conversation.
Get with it bro. Lol
😆 🤣
Jersey...its not a guess.Its knowing the process and involving in the process.$8 Billion in fee was paid by Lehman estates.There should be atleast $400 B in assets under current estates.IMO.And they have to resurrect.
FOR 16 YEARS
The old man from east coast is still confused.
Talk is talk and nothing more.
It's all guesses and just keeps this board alive.
Nice post, nice numbers
Everything will be known in the end.
Newflow, thanks for the words and GLTA
Talk is cheap. LBHI was 2 times WMI aka Washington Mutual, Inc. Anything people talk about $5 or $10 is cheap talk.As per third amended plan of reorganization(what is REORGANIZATION?), if class 11 or 12 gets 1 cent, CTs should be satisfied with interest around $45/share, IMO.
I will sell 10 k CTs for $5. If there is a buyer.
5 dollar signs…. Too much time on your hands! lol
I have heard every number that you can possibly hear. Staring from 0 to the sky's the limit, back interest and everything else. Without dreaming life would be dull. Everyone needs to dream.
When it happens it happens. All we can do is ride the wave.
GLTA....LETS SEE WHERE IT GOES.
$ $ $ $ $
there's a clue. Think on it.
Sixteen years is not a bankruptcy. It is a new birth. Where is the Justice for subordinated Creditors? The Debtors' were given a free pass. We are not interested in the Debtors' excuses. Show us our money. This is all part of the New American: Secret billion dollar Hugs and Kisses for a smaller well defined group.
The Legal System is being abused like the World has never seen in the past Century.
$1 Quadrillion Naked.
The Derivative Market is naked options.
The party writing the insurance policies doesn’t own/have the backing assets to cover the losses with assets like normal stock options.
A shell game. Compound fiat money.
That is why the derivative insurance contracts writer’s back in 2008 couldn’t cover their obligations.
Lehman’s lived on both sides of the fence regarding derivatives.
According to the US Treasury back in 2008 for residential mortgages was $13 Trillion of most where RMBS backed by derivative contracts to cover the losses of the insured bonds.
JPM wrote 57% of the derivative contracts.
From the WMB DB California we learn the loss ratio of 11.9% for the RMBS.
The Math (in Billions);
$13,000 x .57(57%) x .119(11.9%) = $881.79 Billion potential exposure for JPM to cover due to JPM’s derivative exposure.
s404; please go back and reread my posts
Ron
The more savvy guys I’ve met here so far on this board are hinting at an easy 20.00 range… I’m good with 10…. Anything over 20? I change my friends lives as well… I’m keeping tight lip for a while on this. US bankruptcy court is unpredictable (bad) and lenient for the right group! I think we are in the right space for a payout… if not it will rewrite corporate law! Is my take…
And that will create a new storm in the stock market and with my knowledge I will be able to capitalize on it also!
Let’s see what goes down ? Or up? lol
Us pessimists are totally good with 5 and we will ride this pale horse to the grave!
Speaking of ride!?! I hope your friend feels like sporting one of his Ferraris the day we do the garage tour… lol
Or we can take my ride to lunch…
All good in the Jersey hood!
Here is Gems Opinion... Not MIne. And solvanancy is unclear
But speaks for itsself at best its tangled and held at bay.
Gem: "Yes, the derivatives market is still very much in business. It's a massive global market estimated at over $1 quadrillion.
Here's a breakdown of your questions:
Derivatives Market:
The derivatives market is alive and well. It plays a significant role in various financial activities like hedging risks, speculation, and managing exposure to different assets.
ABS/RMBS Contracts:
Asset-backed securities (ABS) and residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) can be used as underlying assets in derivative contracts.
Whether these contracts perform depends on the specific terms of the contract and the performance of the underlying assets (ABS/RMBS) they are tied to.
GFC (Global Financial Crisis) and Derivatives:
The 2008 GFC exposed some issues with complex derivatives tied to troubled mortgage loans.
However, the derivatives market itself wasn't the sole cause of the crisis. It contributed by amplifying the losses.
Insurance Contracts and Resolution:
It's difficult to say definitively without more details on the specific derivative insurance contracts and the involved parties.
These contracts might have specific payout triggers linked to certain events or performance metrics of the underlying ABS/RMBS.
Potential Outcomes:
If the ABS/RMBS perform poorly and trigger the payout conditions, the insurance contracts might pay out to the solvent banks.
However, the contracts might have clauses that exclude payouts based on specific scenarios.
Here are some additional points to consider:
The situation likely involves complex legal and financial details.
Determining the outcome might require reviewing the specific terms of the contracts and the performance of the underlying assets.
If you're interested in learning more about this specific situation, it's advisable to consult with a financial professional familiar with derivatives and the circumstances surrounding the GFC. They can provide a more informed analysis based on the details."
Thats its opinion .. GLTU
But still interesting.
If JPM wrote 57% of an $83 trillion marketplace, then here's how we can approach the situation:
Market Size: We can calculate the total size of the marketplace that JPM participated in:
Marketplace size = ($83 trillion) / (57%) = $145.6 trillion (approximately)
Losses Covered by JPM: Unfortunately, you haven't provided the specific math regarding the losses JPM needed to cover. However, I can help you with different approaches to analyze the situation depending on the type of losses:
Market Downturn: If the losses represent a general decline in the market value of assets, then JPM's losses would be proportional to its 57% market share.
Example: Let's say the overall market value decreased by $10 trillion. JPM's hypothetical loss would be (57%) * ($10 trillion) = $5.7 trillion.
Specific Defaults: If the losses are due to defaults on specific assets, then JPM's losses would depend on the types and amounts of defaulted assets they hold.
We would need more information about the defaulted assets and JPM's exposure to them to calculate their specific losses.
Important Points:
It's important to understand the nature of the losses before calculating the impact on JPM.
A 57% market share doesn't necessarily mean JPM is responsible for 57% of all losses. It depends on the specific type of loss.
have any further details about the nature of the losses JPM needs to cover?
Also Math or Numbers don't Matter anymore .... Your politically(Family) connected or not. Is what it comes down to for SIB Systemically Import Bank.
Why? Threre are no more Reserve requirement for any SIB. National or Regional.
Debt is now irrelevent. The country is headed to Zimbobwae faster that then we can say Ohhh Sheet.
Disagree the only question is timing... for Which Corp how much. Sept 23 to hopefully recover ....or Sept 16 total panick and position liquidation.!!??
i am very hopeful we get paid pver $50, eventually. don't know when. time value of money.
my point was on jpm as jpm stock isn't taking a beating if they are in such a hole.
Followers
|
323
|
Posters
|
|
Posts (Today)
|
1
|
Posts (Total)
|
111843
|
Created
|
01/28/09
|
Type
|
Free
|
Moderators stoxjock cottonisking real777mellon |
IPO - 1/7/2005 - 8.00 Million Shares @ $25.00/share.
Previous Ticker Symbol: LEH-N Changed: 9/17/08
Volume | |
Day Range: | |
Bid Price | |
Ask Price | |
Last Trade Time: |