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Talk to Larry Dudash about that.
BULLISH 50/200 DEMA Crossing Alert!
Check it out.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=866000
The second graph (NASDAQ Composite) now has a bullish crossing.
Testing Support?
Are We Testing Support?
It is interesting how people look at the same data and see different things. I took profits yesterday so I can buy any more dips, but it looks like we are in a breakout and testing past support. Check out the BP charts here: #msg-785469 and you see they are ALL still in up mode so today was just a pause to refresh I think until they turn down.
Is it one last chance for you bears to short?
This ess n pee chart:
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$INX&data=A&date=042503&den=MED&evnt=ADV&am....
It looks to me like it broke out of a ascending triangle with the resistance line just below 900 and today it came back and tested that line. I think this is pretty common. Maybe an early Mon AM panic sell to pierce the support line intraday to really make it exciting? It did see one piercing on the way up 3 weeks ago.
The Nasdaq is doing the same thing
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?frames=0&time=7&freq=1&compi....
Gotta give da bears one more chance to short perhaps? :)
NASDAQ 100 BPI vs VNX Ratio on weekly charts
Interesting Observations:
#1 extreme levels were not good buy or sell trigger points in 1999.
#2 Doesn't look like a reliable signal to me except during a bear market. Since the bear bottomed in the Fall of 2002, it seems this is less reliable just as it was in 1999
S&P500 CPC & VIX Sentiment Indicators (VLT)
Jan 1994 - Dec 2003
VIX can sure go low for a long period of time. What stands out to me is the bears were looking for a major capitulation spike in VIX to 50 or even 75 in early 2003 and what I think they missed is the capitulation was more of a long, drawn out integration process so the peak was less, but the duration was long and so the total money "capitulated" is rather large.
watch for 10 DMA over 1.0
I view these articles as MUST READS:
Asset Allocation and Diversification http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/investing/65540
Using Asset Allocation to make money in a Flat Market http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/investing/93151
Asset Allocation Review http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/investing/99290 shows how asset allocation smoothes portfolio returns
For information on how to get a free issue of my newsletter: http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/WhatLetter2Buy.html
Bullish Percentage for the S&P500
April 1997 through Dec 2003
>
>
updated 4/11/03
NASDAQ CPC & VIX Sentiment Indicators (ST)
6 MOnths
watch for 10 DMA over 1.0
S&P500 CPC & VIX Sentiment Indicators (ST)
6 MOnths
watch for 10 DMA over 1.0
NASDAQ CPC & VXN Sentiment Indicators (LT)
June 1997 - Dec 2003
watch for 10 DMA over 1.0
S&P500 CPC & VIX Sentiment Indicators (LT)
June 1997 - Dec 2003
watch for 10 DMA over 1.0
Bullish Percentage for the Nasdaq
April 1997 through Dec 2003
]>
>
>
but now my flag gif does work as I can see here at the end
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=866000
Strange...
Maybe some internet slowness
CaptRon's 50 and 200 day EMA crossing
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/81641/1142-1146#message_1
FWIW, I use the 50 Ema crossing the 200 Ema on the SPX as the primary indicator. I believe the expotential ma is more accurate, and better on the SPX than the other indexes, but that's JMHO.
SPX 1yr with EMAs
COMPQ 1 yr with EMAs
DOW 1 yr with EMAs
NYSE 1 yr with EMAs
Thanks!
Funny thing is I can't make this gif plot
http://www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/flag.gif
[-chart-]www.suite101.com/files/topics/270/files/flag.gif[-/chart-]
doesn't seem to work.
Kirk, here's the second one. The trick is NOT to use the url in the address field, but right click the chart and properties and take the url from that. Gottfried
McClellan Oscillators
NYSE
NASDAQ
>
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NAMO,uu[w,a]daclnyay[df][pa50!a-50][vc60][iLa12,26,9]&a...
Full Definition http://stockcharts.com/education/Resources/Glossary/McClellanOscillator.html
The McClellan Oscillator is a breadth indicator derived from each day's net advances, the number of advancing issues less the number of declining issues. Subtracting the 39-day exponential moving average from the 19-day exponential moving average of net advances forms the oscillator.
Similar to MACD, the McClellan Oscillator is a momentum indicator that is applied to the advance/decline statistics. When the 19-day EMA (shorter moving average) moves above the 39-day (longer moving average) EMA, it signals that advances are gaining the upper hand. Conversely, when the 19-day EMA declines below the 39-day EMA, it signals that declining issues are dominant. As a momentum indicator, the McClellan Oscillator attempts to anticipate positive and negative changes in the AD statistics for market timing.
Buy and sell signals are generated as well as overbought and oversold readings. Usually, readings above +100 are considered overbought and below -100 oversold. Overbought and oversold readings may vary among indices and historical precedent. Buy signals are generated when the oscillator advances from oversold levels to positive territory. Sell signals are generated on declines from overbought to negative territory. Traders may also look for positive or negative divergences to time their trades. A series of rising troughs would denote strength, while a series of declining peaks weakness.
Created 2/26/03: First Post of these charts
Kirk's Market Thoughts: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/55973
Free Issue of me Newsletter: http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html
Kirk, as you know PnF can change the chart of an equity only once per day. Thus a drop in the am might produce a sell and the stock could reverse all that in the pm but not change from sell status. So there is quite a delay.
Gottfried
Using Bullish Percentage Indexes for trading
Full Definition http://stockcharts.com/education/Resources/Glossary/bullishPercent.html
Bullish Percentage Indexes are useful for intermediate- to long-term trading. Each such index indicates the percentage of stocks in a given set of stocks (exchange or index) that have Buy signals on their "Point and Figure" charts.
This is a contrarian strategy. When too many stocks have PnF buy such signals, most of those traders who would want to buy would have bought already, leading to a lack of new buyers to push the prices further up, leading to a decline. The opposite is also true - too few PnF charts with Buy signals means that most people who would sell have probably sold already, meaning that the prices are likely to go up as the selling subsides and new buyers emerge.
DJIA vs NYSE BPI
NASDAQ Composite vs. NASDAQ BPI
QQQ vs. NASDAQ 100 BPI
S&P500 vs. S&P500 Bullish Percent Index
Full List of Bullish Percent Charts:
NYSE ($BPNYA)
Nasdaq ($BPCOMPQ)
Nasdaq 100 ($BPNDX)
Dow Industrials ($BPINDU)
S & P 500 ($BPSPX)
S & P 100 ($BPOEX)
Toronto Stock Exchange ($BPTSE)
S&P Consumer Discretionary Sector ($BPDISC)
S&P Energy Sector ($BPENER)
S&P Financial Sector ($BPFINA)
S&P Healthcare Sector ($BPHEAL)
S&P Industrial Sector ($BPINDY)
S&P Information Technology Sector ($BPINFO)
S&P Materials Sector ($BPMATE)
S&P Consumer Staples Sector ($BPSTAP)
S&P Telecom Services Sector ($BPTELE)
S&P Utilities Sector ($BPUTIL)
Dow Jones Transportation Sector ($BPTRAN)
Udpated 2/21/03: Added Nasdaq Summation Index Chart
Kirk's Market Thoughts: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/55973
Free Issue of me Newsletter: http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html
Thanks! So simple... like looking for your sunglasses and finding them on top of your head!
I'll update that and edit out the quote from Vesselin.
I've noticed one thing about the charts is they often are still bullish or bearish but might have reversed but have not enough to make a switch. That might actually make them useful to look for the first trend change as that trend change actually has some momentum behind it.
thanks again. K
Kirk, bearish percent is just [100-bullish percent]. Gottfried [end]
Using Bullish Percentage Indexes for trading
Full Definition http://stockcharts.com/education/Resources/Glossary/bullishPercent.html
Bullish Percentage Indexes are useful for intermediate- to long-term trading. Each such index indicates the percentage of stocks in a given set of stocks (exchange or index) that have Buy signals on their "Point and Figure" charts.
This is a contrarian strategy. When too many stocks have PnF buy such signals, most of those traders who would want to buy would have bought already, leading to a lack of new buyers to push the prices further up, leading to a decline. The opposite is also true - too few PnF charts with Buy signals means that most people who would sell have probably sold already, meaning that the prices are likely to go up as the selling subsides and new buyers emerge.
Vesselin writes "Most bullish percentage indexes are more useful for picking bottoms than for picking tops. It stands to reason to have mirror indicators - "bearish percentage indexes", indicating the percentage of stocks with Sell signals on their P&F charts. Such indicators should be more useful for picking tops than for picking bottoms. Unfortunately, I know of no charting service that supports such indicators.
DJIA vs NYSE BPI
NASDAQ Composite vs. NASDAQ BPI
QQQ vs. NASDAQ 100 BPI
S&P500 vs. S&P500 Bullish Percent Index
Full List of Bullish Percent Charts:
NYSE ($BPNYA)
Nasdaq ($BPCOMPQ)
Nasdaq 100 ($BPNDX)
Dow Industrials ($BPINDU)
S & P 500 ($BPSPX)
S & P 100 ($BPOEX)
Toronto Stock Exchange ($BPTSE)
S&P Consumer Discretionary Sector ($BPDISC)
S&P Energy Sector ($BPENER)
S&P Financial Sector ($BPFINA)
S&P Healthcare Sector ($BPHEAL)
S&P Industrial Sector ($BPINDY)
S&P Information Technology Sector ($BPINFO)
S&P Materials Sector ($BPMATE)
S&P Consumer Staples Sector ($BPSTAP)
S&P Telecom Services Sector ($BPTELE)
S&P Utilities Sector ($BPUTIL)
Dow Jones Transportation Sector ($BPTRAN)
Udpated 2/21/03: Added Nasdaq Summation Index Chart
Kirk's Market Thoughts: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/55973
Free Issue of me Newsletter: http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html
Thanks Kirk,
I will look into the different groups. The Chat there is very similar to the iHub chat. I was surprised to not see anyone in any of the rooms though.
Take care Kirk! :^)
Chat schedule:
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/16375
Subscribe with http://www.suite101.com/subscribe_discussion.cfm/subscribe/investing/16375
and then you can click on the red "what's new" to see what topics you are subscribed to. This is much like "Favorites" here.
These are some of my favorites
US Stock Market: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/69251 (General Discussion)
Bonds: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/12763
Real Estate: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/23658
Ask Lita: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/85983 (investing, taxes, etc.)
Technical Analysis: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/69431
Mutual Funds http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/21094
Kirk's Market Thoughts: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/55973
ECRI Data: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/37993
The Economy: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/33945 (Jobs, CPI, GDP, etc.)
and for getting help with problems:
Jen's Help Thread http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/18618
I'd suggest subscribing to these discussion threads using the "subscribe" button at the bottom of each. Then you can click "WHAT'S NEW" in the red banner on most pages and get a listing of these discussions. This makes it much easier to follow where we put the most effort.
Go to each one and subscribe. This will make it easy to find those in the future. All you have to do is click on "What is New" and those subscribed to threads will be listed.
Hi Kirk,
The Suite101 board looks interesting. I cannot get into the Chat as I get a message 'You have to validate your membership to chat'. The website is showing that I am signed in. What am I missing? TIA, Bob :^)
Never mind, I validated via the Email. I don't see anyone in the Chat rooms though. Are there specific times for the Chat sessions? :^)
I was just hoping that you might be setting up a discussion board and sharing some of your trading insights.
not a problem. :)
I already have a trading board here http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/81641
and don't want to start another. Send me an email KirkLindstrom@ix.netcom.com if you are still having troubles and I will get you help. Sometimes there is an issue with cookies...
Also, I am not really a trader in the classic sense. I mostly use TA to get stocks I like at even better prices and to help me get better prices when I take profits. So far, it seems to be helping me but I am always leary of making bold pronouncements and rather let my newsletter record speak for this.
Hi Kirk,
No, it is not breaking any rules. What you are doing is fine. I was just hoping that you might be setting up a discussion board and sharing some of your trading insights. Since you had mentioned the x-axis in most all of your posts I was wondering if you could explain it. From the stock charts you posted and your newsletter I did not see where you mentioned being stopped out on any of your orders and that you would just accumulate at the lows in anticipation of an eventual reversal in the stock price. That was why I was asking about the trade signals you were using. If the board is not to be for discussion though I am sorry to bother you. I might take a look at some of your links today if I can get them to work. Good Luck with the board! Sincerely, Bob :^)
Strange... all the links work fine for me.
As for your hopes for my board here, you should read my title post which explains it all. It is just for me to experiment with charts to send people to look at from my web site and my newsletter and act as a backup site should I decide to make a change. I really don't care if others find us or not. I was not aware this was breaking any rules.
Sorry to bother you Kirk
I cannot get the links in your post to work other than the newsletter. I thought that my questions were not asking too much of you. I just hope that your board does not become nothing more than a place for you to pump your newsletter and website.
Sincerely, Bob :^)
Hi Bob
I'm not encouraging questions on this board as I am just experimenting with it as a way to give charts to the subscribers of my newsletter. Stockcharts allows us to post charts here but not in my newsletter because it resides on an Earthlink server which is too large a base they say.
If you or anyone has a specific question for me about TA, then I encourage you to ask it in my TA Discussion Forum here: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/81641
Please be more specific than the question I am replying to as I don't understand your question.
BTW, we have a chat group here http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/16375 that is great for meeting people to discuss investing with.
As to my own personal buy and sell signals, I only publish the RESULTS of those in my newsletter. Free sample instructions here http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html
but I might do more if my experiments here work out and I figure out how to explain it better. I'm always looking for ways to improve my product and make it more useful. This site and my charts here is one such experiment.
What is the x-axis you talk about?
What am I supposed to be looking at in these XLF charts? I was looking at your website and wondering what trade signals you were using when buying LRCX from 6/02 until 10/02, the Bullish Percentage? On the stock charts that you have posted on the board what are the signals that you are currently getting and when might they change?
TIA, Bob :^)
Kirk
Welcome to IHUB.
Note:
You can add where you board is and where your charts are
via IHUB tools
see below
CPC & VIX Sentiment Indicators
watch for 10 DMA over 1.0
>
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$trin,uu[w,a]dbhlnyay[d19970601...
SemiCapXStocks (3yr) I track, follow and/or own. See my newsletter for more details http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html.
The goal here is to see how they line up on the same x-axis.
Price Weighted Semi Index $SOX
Market Weighted Semi Index $GSM
Kirk, some interesting ideas, I think I will study what you are working on this weekend, and see what comes up. The HUB is a great place, not too many loonies aboard. Hope you stick around.
AMAT Price vs Backlog buy/sell strategy
http://home.attbi.com/~gottfriedm/SEMIcharts/backlogchange.gif
It sure looks from the chart that the time to buy or add to AMAT is when they announce an upturn in backlog. It also looks like a good time to take profits or sell (or short) is when they report lower backlog.
The problem with that strategy is the backlog numbers have been lumpy the past few years and it would give some whipsaw.
I wonder if anyone has the data to enter a simple buy/sell depending on higher or lower backlog and the price of AMAT the next day after announcing backlog?
SemiCapXStocks (3yr) I track, follow and/or own. See my newsletter for more details http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html.
The goal here is to see how they line up on the same x-axis.
SemiCapXStocks (1 yr ) I track, follow and/or own. See my newsletter for more details http://home.netcom.com/~kirk_69/Savvy/Promo/WhatLetter2Buy.html.
The goal here is to see how they line up on the same x-axis.
Using Bullish Percentage Indexes for trading
Full Definition http://stockcharts.com/education/Resources/Glossary/bullishPercent.html
Bullish Percentage Indexes are useful for intermediate- to long-term trading. Each such index indicates the percentage of stocks in a given set of stocks (exchange or index) that have Buy signals on their "Point and Figure" charts.
This is a contrarian strategy. When too many stocks have PnF buy such signals, most of those traders who would want to buy would have bought already, leading to a lack of new buyers to push the prices further up, leading to a decline. The opposite is also true - too few PnF charts with Buy signals means that most people who would sell have probably sold already, meaning that the prices are likely to go up as the selling subsides and new buyers emerge.
Vesselin writes "Most bullish percentage indexes are more useful for picking bottoms than for picking tops. It stands to reason to have mirror indicators - "bearish percentage indexes", indicating the percentage of stocks with Sell signals on their P&F charts. Such indicators should be more useful for picking tops than for picking bottoms. Unfortunately, I know of no charting service that supports such indicators.
DJIA vs NYSE BPI
NASDAQ Composite vs. NASDAQ BPI
QQQ vs. NASDAQ 100 BPI
S&P500 vs. S&P500 Bullish Percent Index
Full List of Bullish Percent Charts:
NYSE ($BPNYA)
Nasdaq ($BPCOMPQ)
Nasdaq 100 ($BPNDX)
Dow Industrials ($BPINDU)
S & P 500 ($BPSPX)
S & P 100 ($BPOEX)
Toronto Stock Exchange ($BPTSE)
S&P Consumer Discretionary Sector ($BPDISC)
S&P Energy Sector ($BPENER)
S&P Financial Sector ($BPFINA)
S&P Healthcare Sector ($BPHEAL)
S&P Industrial Sector ($BPINDY)
S&P Information Technology Sector ($BPINFO)
S&P Materials Sector ($BPMATE)
S&P Consumer Staples Sector ($BPSTAP)
S&P Telecom Services Sector ($BPTELE)
S&P Utilities Sector ($BPUTIL)
Dow Jones Transportation Sector ($BPTRAN)
Kirk:
Take a tour, click everything. You'll find a *LOT* of features here that are very stock-specific, just like the ability to insert graphs in your posts, as you've obviously found.
One of the things that you specifically might be interested in, is that we have an e-mail list built into each thread. Click the 'Manage' link below the header to see some options like that.
Feel free to ask any questions about the site features, rules, etc.
MB
This is a board created by Kirk Lindstrom
I write investment articles at my blog Kirk's Market Thoughts at http://kirklindstrom.blogspot.com/
Key Articles
and I write an investment newsletter
Jan 18 SPY 1% Off Record High While ECRI's WLI Is At A 191-Week High
Key Posts here at InvestorsHub: (These need to be updated with the new charts which I will do as time allows.)
Using Bullish Percentage Indexes for trading: #msg-785469
"Golden Crossing" 50 and 200 day EMA crossing: #msg-866000
McClellan Oscillators #msg-796214
S&P500
S&P500 BPI Bullish Percentage Index (4/97 - 12/03): #msg-914430
S&P500 CPC & VIX Sentiment Indicators (ST): #msg-898462
S&P500 CPC & VIX Sentiment Indicators (LT): #msg-898443
S&P500 CPC & VIX Sentiment Indicators (VLT): #msg-939489
S&P500 VIX:OEX Ratio 1994-2005): #msg-1250049
NASDAQ
NASDAQ BPI Bullish Percentage Index (4/97 - 12/03): #msg-877708
NASDAQ CPC & VXN Sentiment Indicators (LT): #msg-898449
NASDAQ CPC & VXN Sentiment Indicators (ST): #msg-914354
SemiCapXStocks (1yr Charts): #msg-756845
SemiCapXStocks (3yr Charts): #msg-763882
XLF Spyder: #msg-761049
BONDS
$USB - 30 Yr TBill Price & Yield: 1990-2004: #msg-1023513
$USB - 30 Yr TBill vs. SPX: 1990-2004: #msg-2563786
5 & 10 yr Bond vs. SPX 5/3/90-12/31/04 #msg-2564197
Free Issue of my Newsletter http://KirkLindstrom.com/Newsletter.html
Updated 4/28/14
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