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Plug Power Stock’s Wild Ride: Brace for Impact or Bail Out Now?
By Rich Duprey, InvestorPlace Contributor
https://investorplace.com/2024/04/plug-power-stocks-wild-ride-brace-for-impact-or-bail-out-now/
The hydrogen fuel-cell maker has long failed to make good on its promises
Plug Power (PLUG) stock continues to burn through cash while promising investors profits are coming.
Despite having big name clients, the hydrogen fuel cell manufacturer can’t turn sales into profits.
Investors should wait on the sidelines for management to follow through before committing more money.
Plug Power stock (NASDAQ:PLUG) is in a difficult spot. The company obviously has a viable business and product. It has a list of top-name partners either using its products and services or helping it build out a vertical supply chain.
On the other hand, Plug Power stock can’t make money. It is selling its fuel cells at a significant loss resulting in negative cash flows as it burns through the cash it has on hand. It’s why it was forced to include a going concern notice last year, though it subsequently removed the wording from its annual report.
Investors have been the losers. Plug Power stock is down 30% in 2024, off 67% over the past year and the hydrogen fuel cell leader has lost over 95% of its value from the all-time high hit in 2021. During that time shareholders have suffered through significant dilution as Plug issued ever more shares. Between 2018 and 2023, PLUG stock’s share count grew from 218 million to over 595 million.
It’s past time investors looked dispassionately at their company. Plug Power is not in a good spot and despite its cheap valuation, the stock is not a buy.
Profits are always just over the next hill
Plug Power generated nearly $1 billion in revenue in 2023, a record for the company, and 27% higher than the year-ago figure. But net losses nearly doubled to $2.50 per share, though they were caused in part by investing in growth and expansion projects. CEO Andy Marsh says 2024 will be the year Plug Power gets its financial house in order.
“Recognizing the past challenges with cash management, we are dedicated in 2024 to bolstering our financial profile. Our commitment to driving forward the hydrogen economy remains unwavering.”
That’s fine, but investors have heard that refrain before. Last year Marsh was confident 2023 was the year it would achieve break-even margins. He also forecast generating $2 billion in sales on its way to $20 billion in revenue(!) by 2030. Shareholders have likely learned to discount the grandiose claims management makes at this point.
Yet this is a real business
As noted at the start, Plug Power stock is not some vaporware business. Its fuel cells work in the warehouses of Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). Walmart, in fact, accounts for over 23% of Plug’s revenue. That includes a warrant charge of $5.9 million resulting from a 2017 agreement between Plug, the retailer, and Amazon to purchase some 55.3 million shares of company stock over a period of years.
The warrants are recorded as a reduction in revenue so the contribution amount is actually higher. At the end of last year, almost 35 million of Walmart’s warrant shares had vested. All of Amazon’s 55 million warrant shares have vested. Plug’s second-largest customer accounts for almost 11% of total revenue.
So it’s not as though Plug’s customers aren’t invested in its success. It’s just that Plug Power can’t seem to turn into a profitable business.
Wait for PLUG stock to make good
Whether or not Plug Power is pinky-swear level ready to make 2024 its year to turn around, investors shouldn’t hold their breath. They’ve been promised this for so long they ought to be numb to management’s entreaties at this point.
As hard as it may be to let go, 2024 should be the year shareholders sell their stock and wait for Plug Power to make good on its promises. Only then should investors be willing to put their money into play again. Until then, Plug Power stock can only be considered a sell.
Tesla Less Profitable As Delivery Slump Sinks In
KIT NORTON09:33 AM ET 04/10/2024
https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-stock-profits-under-pressure-as-delivery-slump-sinks-in/?src=A00220
Tesla (TSLA) stock was handed two price target revisions Wednesday as analysts project 2024 vehicle deliveries could undercut last year's total with profit forecasts continuing to fall ahead of first-quarter earnings.
Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois lowered his Tesla stock price target to 165 from 185 Wednesday while Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter cut the firm's price target to 205 from 225.
Houchois expects Tesla will deliver 1.77 million vehicles in 2024, below the 2023 record of 1.81 million. The analyst also reduced his 2024 EBIT and EPS estimates by around 30% to $6.5 billion and $1.87, respectively. With Tesla reporting first-quarter earnings on April 23, Houchois wrote the situation continues loading "more drama into Q1 results," including questions about product priorities and leadership.
Jefferies also expects Q1 cash burn should be "heavily negative." Pipe Sandler sees full-year deliveries slipping to 1.79 million.
On Tuesday, Baird analyst Ben Kallo estimated 2024 deliveries will total 1.84 million, writing that second-quarter deliveries are likely to decline compared to last year.
The consensus view is 1.94 million deliveries, according to FactSet. However, that number is likely to be adjusted following Tesla's worse-than-expected Q1 delivery result.
Meanwhile, Tesla vehicle insurance registrations for the week of April 1-7 totaled 1,880, according to CnEVPost. That's down around 40% compared to last quarter and a 70% decline to the same period in 2023.
"There is no denying that the demand environment has deteriorated," Kallo wrote.
Tesla stock fell 1.6% to 173.96 during market action Wednesday. On Tuesday, TSLA shares gained more than 2% to 176.88. The stock is up 7.3% so far this week.
Tesla EPS Estimates Keep Falling
The recent analyst notes come as Wall Street consensus has 2024 Tesla earnings firmly below 2023's level. That signals another year of earnings declines for this growth stock. Wall Street currently expects Tesla earnings per share of just $2.71 in 2024, according to FactSet. That would be more than a 13% decline vs. last year's $3.12.
Wall Street's 2024 EPS consensus estimates for Tesla have now come down 29% since the end of 2023. With Tesla reporting earnings on April 23, Wall Street is likely just beginning to cut earnings predictions. Some analysts believe earnings could drop even further, potentially around 2021 EPS of $2.26.
Looking further out, Wall Street consensus has Tesla's EPS in 2025 coming in at $3.72, down from $5.29 at the end of 2023, according to FactSet.
Tesla And The Robotaxi
Reuters reported Friday the EV giant has canceled its long promised next-generation $25,000 vehicle, choosing to focus on developing its self-driving robotaxi platform.
Reuters, citing three anonymous sources and internal messages, wrote that Tesla no longer plans to make its low-cost entry-level vehicle, the Model 2, and will continue developing its robotaxi on the "same small-vehicle platform."
However, Chief Executive Elon Musk and others at Tesla have challenged the veracity of the report.
Following the publication of the Reuters story, Musk also announced Tesla will unveil the robotaxi on Aug. 8.
On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, a Tesla bull, wrote that canceling or delaying the Model 2, could be a "recognition that making and selling EVs in a traditional consumer model may not create lasting economic value."
Jonas added that while the firm is prepared for Tesla to unveil a robotaxi-prototype in August, it is cautious on "potential commercialization timelines for a fully autonomous taxi service."
Morgan Stanley expects Tesla 2024 EPS to sink to $1.12
Tesla Stock Performance
Last week, Tesla stock sank 6.2%, including a 3.6% dip Friday, to 164.90. Cathie Wood purchased nearly 453,000 shares of Tesla during the week, according to the daily trade disclosures. TSLA shares are trading below the 50-day moving average after falling around 13% in March.
The prior week, Tesla gained 2.9% to 175.79 as the EV company started rolling out its latest full self-driving update to customers.
Emails sent by Elon Musk leaked on social media platforms show he is making it mandatory in North America to install and activate the latest version of FSD on vehicles and to take customers on a "short test ride before handing over the car."
Tesla is also offering a one-month free trial of FSD for April in the U.S. for new purchases or existing EVs that are FSD capable.
The EV giant ranks eighth in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 32 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Tesla stock also has an 11 Relative Strength Rating and a 67 EPS Rating.
Roblox Taps PubMatic (PUBM) to Offer Programmatic Immersive Video Ads on Its Platform
New partnership will unlock scaled access to the Roblox audience for advertisers along with premium brand demand for the platform
April 10, 2024 09:05 ET
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/04/10/2860809/0/en/Roblox-Taps-PubMatic-to-Offer-Programmatic-Immersive-Video-Ads-on-Its-Platform.html
REDWOOD CITY, Calif., April 10, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PubMatic (Nasdaq: PUBM), an independent technology company delivering digital advertising’s supply chain of the future, today announced a partnership with Roblox (NYSE: RBLX), a global immersive platform for communication and connection, to enable programmatic media buying of Roblox’s video advertising inventory when it becomes available later this year. The partnership will allow more brands to seamlessly reach Roblox’s global community of over 71 million daily active users1, nearly half of them representing the highly coveted Gen Z demographic, while Roblox will gain scaled access to premium brand advertising demand.
Since 2006, Roblox has built a global community with millions of creators and immersive experiences, from social hangouts and gaming, to concerts, sports, fashion shows, education, and entertainment. With one of the most robust virtual economies in the world, the expansion of Roblox’s advertising business will enable seamless access to this community and allow brands to activate on the platform without creating custom-built content. Like all advertising on Roblox, programmatic ads must comply with the platform’s Community Standards and Advertising Standards grounded in principles of making advertising safe, transparent, and respectful of people’s privacy while still creating opportunities for the community to innovate, engage and earn. This also means Roblox users will know when they are interacting with ad content, and ads will continue to only be served to people ages 13 and up.
“We are committed to making it easier for brands to foster connections with our highly engaged community on Roblox,” said Stephanie Latham, VP of global partnerships, Roblox. “Partnering with PubMatic unlocks the opportunity for more advertisers to seamlessly engage this community through preferred content formats, like video, while providing advertiser controls around brand suitability. The ad experience we offer on the platform is built to be immersive instead of disruptive, and true to the Roblox experience that our community of creators, users, and brands know and love."
“We are thrilled to partner with Roblox to deliver a pioneering advertising solution that marries monetization with user experience,” said Kyle Dozeman, Chief Revenue Officer, Americas at PubMatic. “Advertising creates significant opportunities for many companies, and it funds and fuels the endless potential of the internet. We look forward to empowering Roblox to maintain full control over its advertising ecosystem while enabling advertisers to reach their target audiences effectively.”
Immersive Video Ads Availability:
Roblox immersive video ads are going through an alpha test and will become broadly available to advertisers on Roblox later this year. The video ads inventory will ultimately be made available to PubMatic buyers via programmatic guaranteed, private marketplaces (PMPs), auction package deals and open exchange to maximize access while ensuring unparalleled control and brand suitability. This will enable the platform to tap into PubMatic’s vast demand, including supply path optimization deals with advertising agencies and premium brands. The new partnership also complements PubMatic’s strength in connected TV, online video, mobile app and display with expansion into the social and native advertising segments.
To learn more about the partnership, reach out to PubMatic representatives.
About PubMatic:
PubMatic (Nasdaq: PUBM) is an independent technology company maximizing customer value by delivering digital advertising’s supply chain of the future. PubMatic’s sell-side platform empowers the world’s leading digital content creators across the open internet to control access to their inventory and increase monetization by enabling marketers to drive return on investment and reach addressable audiences across ad formats and devices. Since 2006, our infrastructure-driven approach has allowed for the efficient processing and utilization of data in real time. By delivering scalable and flexible programmatic innovation, we improve outcomes for our customers while championing a vibrant and transparent digital advertising supply chain.
Wow Bao goes all in on the metaverse with the launch of Dim Sum Palace of Roblox
https://www.nrn.com/technology/wow-bao-goes-all-metaverse-launch-dim-sum-palace-roblox
Wow Bao is bringing its loyalty program, Hot Buns Club, to the metaverse in the form of a virtual scavenger hunt that results in real-life perks
Joanna Fantozzi | Apr 10, 2024
Fast-casual Asian bao bun concept Wow Bao announced its latest foray into the metaverse: the company launched a virtual dance club and lounge on Roblox on Wednesday morning. This new gamified experience allows customers with Roblox accounts to don a “bao head” accessory for their avatar, link up their account with Wow Bao’s Hot Buns Club rewards program, and play a scavenger hunt for a chance to win free food.
While other brands like Starbucks have been inching away from Web3-based digital content, which had reached its apex in 2021 and 2022, Wow Bao has been slowly investing more in the metaverse over time. In Nov. 2022, the digital-forward bao concept announced the Hot Buns Club as a tiered NFT membership program as an extension of its Bao Bucks rewards program, as well as the launch of vending machines in the metaverse. Then, in 2023, Wow Bao began minting its first NFTs (known in-universe as “CollectaBaos”). Fans who purchase the NFTs would automatically be enrolled in the rewards club with perks like discounts and free meals.
“We’re just taking the rewards program to another level; it’s an enhancement to get more people through gamification,” Geoff Alexander, CEO of Wow Bao, told NRN. “We have always been early adopters…We are betting on this and believing in it because these last few generations are so involved in technology that we want to be where they are. Those who are in the space applaud us for being where they are.”
Here's how it works: Customers that have a Roblox account can claim one of 10,000 bao bun heads for their avatar to wear, hang out in the virtual lounge, and participate in the virtual scavenger hunt. Fans who are able to play and win the scavenger hunt will receive a coupon to redeem for a free box of baos at their local grocery store, and will be entered for the chance to win free Wow Bao for a year (a free box of baos per week for 52 weeks).
“NFTs might not be as big as they were before, but what we’re trying to do is to offer people the digital CollectaBao as a badge of honor… and we’re making ourselves available to people by offering that,” Alexander said.
The crucial aspect of this program, Alexander said, is the crossover from the metaverse of virtual lounges and digital bun heads to real-life rewards. The virtual gamification builds brand awareness – particularly to the younger generations who tend to use Roblo — while simultaneously rewarding players with free food (or a chance for even more free Wow Bao). If all goes well, in the future, Wow Bao could roll out more games for bao bun fans to play that could result in more real-life perks or even get delivery platforms involved somehow.
“I would love to see great enhancement with this, but it’s going to depend on user adoption,” Alexander said. “We could use education about our product in [the metaverse] and we can show people how to make baos in-game, we could do more contests…we have infinite ideas; it’s just about picking the right path to go down.”
Rivian’s Make-or-Break Moment: Can the ‘New Tesla’ Deliver on 2024 Promises?
Rivian needs to re-tool its factory this summer and start making a gross profit in the fourth quarter
https://investorplace.com/2024/04/rivians-make-or-break-moment-can-the-new-tesla-deliver-on-2024-promises/
7h ago · By Dana Blankenhorn, InvestorPlace Contributor
Rivian (RIVN) has a hot new lineup of electric vehicles to rival Tesla (TSLA).
The problem will be getting them into production.
A gross profit by the fourth quarter?
Electric Vehicle (EV) maker Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) stock is being hailed as “the new Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).”
The idea is it has cool cars, it has a clear path toward scaling and profits, and it doesn’t have a crazy CEO. Instead, it has R.J. Scaringe, a 41-year old Florida native and the son of an engineer.
But as a stock, the new Tesla is not much different from the old one. Shares are down 57% this year, the market cap below $10 billion. The problem isn’t supply, but demand.
Nice Car You Got There
I got to see a Rivian R1T truck in Atlanta recently. It’s impressive and, unlike the Tesla Cybertruck, it looks familiar. That is, until you look inside. Then it becomes very simple indeed. Open the hood and you don’t see an engine, just a front-end trunk.
All EVs are simple machines. A low-level platform holds the batteries that power it, the motor is just a rotor spinning inside an electromagnet.. The transmission is simple, supporting just 1-2 gears.
All the moving parts of the EV rest at the platform level, so the top can be anything you want. (The platform is usually called a skateboard.) The R1T looks like a truck because people are accustomed to trucks. Change the body and it’s a Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV), the R1S. Change it again and it’s a delivery van, which may be more important.
Rivian’s main task now is downsizing the platform. A smaller R2 platform will lead to cars costing just $45,000. Rivian believes the even-smaller R3 platform will deliver cars at $35,000. This is what most excited people at its recent press conference. The passenger car version of the R3 is a “crossover,” like my Toyota (NYSE:TM) Scion XB of blessed memory.
Reviewers are excited.
Getting From Here to There
Rivian’s challenge is getting from the R1 to the R3.
Despite a lot of hype, RIVN stock made fewer than 14,000 vehicles in the last quarter. The production target for 2024 is just 57,000. It’s a tiny fraction of the 387,000 Tesla made, a result that tanked the stock and overwhelmed demand.
Rivian lost $5.4 billion last year, ending the year with $7.8 billion in cash. It lost $4.86 billion of cash on operations, raising $3.13 billion, mainly convertible notes.
You can see why RIVN stock put off development of its Georgia plant, preferring to continue operations in Normal, Illinois, where it has 8,000 employees.
It doesn’t have the money.
Getting the Cash
Key to getting the cash will be re-tooling the Normal plant for the R2 this summer. The hope is this will result in a gross profit on the cars by the fourth quarter. Half the savings would come from unspecified “design changes, supplier negotiations, and lower raw material costs.”
A gross profit should raise the stock price, and make stock easier to sell. Tesla now sells at 5 times sales, Rivian at 2 times, because Tesla makes money at scale and Rivian does not.
The Bottom Line
It’s going to be tight.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has only gotten 10,000 of the 100,000 delivery vans it ordered five years ago. That, and stock purchases from Amazon and Ford Motor (NYSE:F) (Ford has since sold out), put Rivian on the map.
Exclusivity on the vans ended late last year, prompting a big order from AT&T (NYSE:T). To get to 2025, Rivian must make money on the vans.
The van’s design illustrates the hope I still have in the EV market. It’s built on the same skateboard platform as the R1T. As battery costs decline, this simple design will overpower complex ICE machines and change the world.
Whether Rivian will be part of that world will be answered in 2024. If it is, you’re speculating near the lows. If the numbers let it commit to Georgia, then you buy with both hands.
As of this writing, Dana Blankenhorn had a LONG position in AMZN. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. He is the author of Technology’s Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore’s Law, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com, tweet him at @danablankenhorn, or subscribe to his free Substack newsletter.
RIVN 10.61
Horrible funnies - fabulous looking vehicle. Seeing more and more of them and envious as all hell.
Sales ($mil) 95,365,536,663,661,1121,1337,1315 (whoops. Wrong direction) and 1141 est on March. (really wrong direction)
Fund ownership 1018,1086,1102,1096
EPS - loss, loss, loss, puke, loss, loss etc Totally sucks
Zero knowledge of how to run a company.
But - Did I mention your SUV's are beautiful?
Earnings 4-9-24
NFLX 4-18 A
RTX 4-23 B
TSLA 4-23 A
T 4-24 B
INTC 4-25 A
ROP 4-26 B
QCOM 5-1 A
AAPL 5-2 A
SQ 5-2 A
PERI 5-8 B
RBLX 5-9 B
________________________________________________________
ABNB
AI
AMZN
BP
DIS
DOCU
FDX
FIZZ
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IRBT
MESA
MMM
NKE
NVDA
PATH
PD
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Elon Musk Denies Report Tesla Is Scrapping Less-Expensive Car
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-denies-report-tesla-155442817.html
Dana Hull and Ed Ludlow
Fri, Apr 5, 2024, 11:00 AM MDT2 min read
(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. shares pared a steep drop in intraday trading after Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk denied a report saying the carmaker had called off plans for a less-expensive vehicle.
The stock fell as much as 6.2% on Friday after Reuters said Tesla had canceled the project, citing anonymous sources and company messages it had reviewed. Shares were down 1.3% as of 1 p.m. Friday in New York.
“Reuters is lying,” Musk wrote on X, without offering specifics. In another post, he responded with an eyes emoji to a Tesla investor who speculated that Tesla was shifting more resources toward trying to bring a robotaxi to market.
Musk first teased a $25,000 model during a battery-related event the company staged in September 2020. The CEO said at that time that a series of innovations Tesla was working on gave him confidence the company could make an electric vehicle at that price point within about three years.
Tesla’s failure to deliver the car on time is proving costly. This week, the company reported its first drop in quarterly vehicle deliveries in four years. It’s losing ground in China, where manufacturers led by BYD Co. offer a bevy of newer and cheaper EVs.
Musk’s biographer, Walter Isaacson, wrote in his book published in September that the billionaire had “repeatedly vetoed” plans to make a less-expensive model for two years after Battery Day. Isaacson wrote that Musk believed Tesla’s self-driving efforts would render the $25,000 car unnecessary.
Reuters reported Friday that Musk had issued a directive in late February to go all in on developing a robotaxi. The CEO has repeatedly claimed Tesla is on the verge of bringing a fully self-driving vehicle to market, but has yet to offer features that can safely be used without drivers keeping their eyes on the road and hands on the wheel.
During Tesla’s most recent earnings call, Musk said Tesla was “very far along” with work on its lower-cost vehicle.
“I’m often optimistic regarding time,” he said. “But our current shows that will start production toward the end of 2025.”
Tesla also has talked up a radical change in its manufacturing approach to reduce costs, including at an investor day hosted in March of last year. During the Jan. 24 earnings call, Musk referred to this as “far more advanced than any other automotive manufacturing system in the world by a significant margin.”
Tesla has scheduled its next earnings release for April 23.
Exclusive: Tesla scraps low-cost car plans amid fierce Chinese EV competition
Updated Fri, Apr 5, 2024, 9:42 AM MDT
By Hyunjoo Jin, Norihiko Shirouzu and Ben Klayman
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-tesla-scraps-low-cost-150726195.html
(Reuters) -Tesla has canceled the long-promised inexpensive car that investors have been counting on to drive its growth into a mass-market automaker, according to three sources familiar with the matter and company messages seen by Reuters.
The automaker will continue developing self-driving robotaxis on the same small-vehicle platform, the sources said.
The decision represents an abandonment of a longstanding goal that Tesla chief Elon Musk has often characterized as its primary mission: affordable electric cars for the masses. His first “master plan” for the company in 2006 called for manufacturing luxury models first, then using the profits to finance a “low cost family car.”
Tesla shares fell 4% after the Reuters report.
He has since repeatedly promised such a vehicle to investors and consumers. As recently as January, Musk told investors that Tesla planned to start production of the affordable model at its Texas factory in the second half of 2025, following an exclusive Reuters report detailing those plans.
Tesla’s cheapest current model, the Model 3 sedan, retails for about $39,000 in the United States. The now-defunct entry-level vehicle, sometimes described as the Model 2, was expected to start at about $25,000.
Tesla did not respond to requests for comment.
The stark reversal comes as Tesla faces fierce competition globally from Chinese electric-vehicle makers flooding the market with cars priced as low as $10,000. The plan for driverless robotaxis, which could take longer to deliver, presents a stiffer engineering challenge and more regulatory risk.
Two sources said they learned of Tesla's decision to scrap the Model 2 in a meeting attended by scores of employees, with one of them saying the gathering happened in late February.
“Elon’s directive is to go all in on robotaxi,” that person said.
The third source confirmed the cancellation and said new plans call for robotaxis to be produced, but in much lower volumes than had been projected for the Model 2.
Several company messages reviewed by Reuters about the decision included one on March 1 from an unnamed program manager for the affordable car discussing the project’s demise with engineering staff and advising them to hold off on telling suppliers “about program cancellation.”
A fourth person with knowledge of Tesla’s plans expressed optimism about the decision to pivot away from the cheap-car strategy in favor of robotaxis, a segment Musk has envisioned as the future of mobility. The source cautioned that Tesla’s product plans could change again based on economic conditions.
Squeezing profits from entry-level vehicles is a challenge for any automaker. But Tesla’s delay in pursuing the car Musk once called his dream made it much tougher because it now faces far more competition in that price range.
While Tesla spent years developing its highly experimental Cybertruck, a pricey electric pickup, Chinese automakers have raced ahead on affordable EVs, grabbing market share, gaining economies of scale and offering consumers bargain prices that Western automakers are struggling to match.
As Chinese EVs surged to challenge Tesla’s dominance, Musk was tending to his sprawling empire, which includes rocket-maker SpaceX, brain-chip developer Neuralink, and social media giant X, which Musk acquired in 2022. Formerly called Twitter, the platform has foundered under Musk’s volatile management, shedding most of its value as the company has lost revenue and advertisers.
Plans for the affordable Tesla have been seen as key to delivering on Musk’s stratospheric ambitions for sales growth. Musk said in 2020 that Tesla aspired by 2030 to sell 20 million vehicles – twice as many as the world’s largest automaker, Toyota, sells today. With the death of the Model 2, it’s unclear how he’ll get there.
Expectations for a $25,000 vehicle have underpinned Wall Street analysts’ more modest, but still ambitious, forecasts for Tesla sales. Those forecasts, according to a Tesla investor-relations document, call for vehicle sales rising to 4.2 million by 2028 from 1.8 million last year.
Musk has wavered on the project before. In a biography of the entrepreneur released last year, author Walter Issacson reported that Musk in 2022 “put a hold on” the entry-level EV plans, reasoning that a Tesla robotaxi would make the car irrelevant. Musk’s advisors urged him to stay the course, the book said.
‘HALT ALL FURTHER ACTIVITIES’
Tesla called the affordable-car project NV91 internally and H422 externally when discussing it with suppliers, according to two of the sources and company messages reviewed by Reuters.
Messages from the unnamed Tesla program manager to staffers referenced those code names in discussing the project’s termination. One of those messages sent March 1 said that “suppliers should halt all further activities related to H422/NV91.”
The sources said they did not know all the reasons behind the decision to kill the project.
In another March 1 message, the manager thanked engineering staffers for their efforts and urged them to document what they had learned.
“I’d like to thank everyone for all your hard work and dedication to pushing boundaries and executing the best design possible given the aggressive constraints we had to work within,” the message said. “We would not want all our hard work to go to waste, so it’s important that we tie things off and document things properly.”
The messages showed meetings on the affordable-car project being canceled. The two sources said some engineers have been reassigned.
Tesla’s timeline and business model for robotaxis remain unclear. Musk has publicly predicted a future of mobility in which driverless taxis could eventually become a more common mode of transport than human-driven cars. He has said Tesla, the world’s most valuable automaker, would be "worth basically zero" without achieving full self-driving capability.
Currently, self-driving cars have only been approved by U.S. and Chinese regulators for tightly limited, experimental use on public roads.
Tesla has yet to prove it can produce an autonomous car despite years of predictions by Musk that one was just around the corner, an expectation that partly underpinned Tesla’s soaring valuation. The automaker faces lawsuits and investigations into crashes involving its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving driver-assistance systems, which are not fully autonomous. Tesla has blamed the accidents on inattentive drivers.
Tesla's Autopilot woes are among a number of problems that have drawn scrutiny. The automaker faces another investigation into the driving-range estimates of its cars, launched after Reuters reported last year that Tesla had rigged the in-dash range meters in its vehicles to give rosy projections. Reuters reported in December that the automaker blamed “driver abuse” for chronic failures of suspension and steering parts it long knew were defective.
Tesla's image as a climate-friendly innovator has also suffered with Musk’s tilt toward right-wing politics and polarizing public statements, which have turned away some prospective Tesla buyers, according to surveys and experts.
The automaker reported an 8% year-over-year drop in deliveries on Tuesday, just after its chief Chinese competitor, BYD, reported a 13% gain. Tesla shares dropped 5% on the news, deepening a slide of more than 40% since last July, amounting to a loss of about $400 billion in market value.
Still, Tesla’s market capitalization of $545 billion is higher than the combined worth of the next three most valuable carmakers, Toyota, Porsche and Mercedes-Benz. Tesla’s stock value has long been based on future expectations for mass-market sales and driverless cars rather than its current sales and profits.
RUNNING LATE
The affordable-car project’s cancellation comes as Tesla and other established automakers have been rocked by slowing EV demand growth in the United States and Europe, and cut-throat competition in China.
If Tesla had moved forward with the low-cost car, it wouldn’t have arrived on the market until the latter half of 2025, by the company’s estimate. But the entry-level EV segment is already crowded with compelling models from BYD and many other Chinese brands.
Tesla is late to the segment in part because of a pivotal decision by Musk. In 2020, after releasing its hit crossover, the Model Y, Tesla focused on the highly experimental Cybertruck instead of an affordable car.
Musk unveiled a prototype of the angular, stainless steel-clad truck in 2019 and predicted a starting price of about $40,000. The vehicle finally arrived last year as a 2024 model. The two versions available now start at about $80,000 and $100,000. Tesla says a lower-end Cybertruck costing about $61,000 won't be ready for delivery until 2025.
The company has also struggled to work through manufacturing problems, particularly with the truck's pioneering battery technology. Musk hopes to sell the vehicle in high volumes but warned investors last fall about "enormous challenges" ramping up production and making the vehicle profitable.
"We dug our own grave with the Cybertruck," he said.
During the same period, BYD has seen its electric-vehicle sales soar in China, growing from about 130,000 to more than 1.5 million, not including its thriving business in plug-in hybrids or its fast-growing exports.
BYD already offers a slew of low- and mid-range models, including its Seagull hatchback for less than $10,000. The Chinese automaker now plans to export that car for more than double that price - but still lower than the target for the cheap car Tesla had planned to build.
(Reporting by Hyunjoo Jin in San Francisco, Norihiko Shirouzu in Austin and Ben Klayman in Detroit. Editing by Marla Dickerson and Brian Thevenot.)
Palantir, Oracle Partner For AI And Cloud Computing Services
REINHARDT KRAUSE04:05 PM ET 04/04/2024
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/palantir-stock-rises-oracle-deal-for-ai-cloud-computing-services/?src=A00220
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Oracle (ORCL) on Thursday said they will partner to offer artificial intelligence software and services hosted on Oracle's cloud computing platform. Palantir stock initially rose on the news but closed down as the Nasdaq composite fell again.
Denver-based Palantir sells three software platforms. Palantir Gotham is used primarily by government agencies. Also, there's Palantir Metropolis for banks, financial services firms and hedge funds. And Palantir Foundry is used by corporate clients.
As part of the agreement, the data analytics software maker will move Foundry workloads to Oracle's cloud computing platform. Also, Palantir will make its Gotham and AI Platforms deployable across Oracle's distributed cloud.
While Oracle's cloud business is much smaller than those of Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google, it has been gaining traction.
New Artificial Intelligence Platform
On the stock market today, PLTR stock closed down 1% to 22.48. Palantir stock needs to find support at its 50-day moving average. Oracle stock fell 1.6% to 124.19.
As of Wednesday's market close, Palantir stock was up nearly 32% in 2024. But shares have retreated from a high of 27.50 set on March 7.
Founded in 2003, Palantir has already mined the AI opportunity with government customers for intelligence gathering, counterterrorism and military purposes. Now Palantir aims to use generative AI to spur growth in the commercial market. The software maker has expanded into health care, energy and manufacturing.
New generative AI models process "prompts," such as internet search queries, that describe what a user wants to get. Generative AI technologies create text, images, video and computer programming code on their own.
Palantir Stock Technical Rating
At a customer conference on March 7, Palantir showcased its Artificial Intelligence Platform," rolled out in early 2023. The AI platform has been gaining traction with commercial customers, Palantir said at the conference.
However, Palantir has not disclosed pricing for AI products.
In 2021, Palantir announced a cloud deal with IBM (IBM).
Further, PLTR stock holds a Relative Strength Rating of 96 out of a best-possible 99.
Analyst unveils eye-popping Palantir stock price target after Oracle deal
Todd Campbell
Thu, Apr 4, 2024, 5:32 PM MDT5 min read
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-unveils-eye-popping-palantir-233200437.html
Many tech stocks, including Palantir Technologies, have rallied significantly because of the artificial intelligence spending boom.
The company's shares have rallied 35% year-to-date, substantially outperforming the S&P 500's 9% return. However, most of Palantir's market-beating gains have come since the company reported its fourth-quarter earnings, likely surprising those who thought that most of the upside from AI had already been reflected in share prices.
One analyst who wasn't shocked by Palantir's recent rally is TheStreet Pro's Bruce Kamich. In February, before CEO Alex Karp impressed investors with better-than-expected revenue, he said, "Palantir is looking bullish ahead of earnings," setting a price target of $22.
Palantir went on to eclipse Kamich's target, and on March 4, the Peter Thiel-founded company announced a new agreement to collaborate on AI solutions with cloud service provider Oracle.
Given Palantir's rally and the potential to profit from this new deal, Kamich revisited his analysis and set a new stock price target for Palantir that will likely raise eyebrows.
Palantir's sales driven by AI tailwinds
Palantir stock price performance has been supported by a debt-free balance sheet, improving free cash flow, and profit growth.
The company's revenue has experienced tailwinds because of surging AI activity after the successful launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT in December 2022.
ChatGPT was the first large language model AI app to become widely available, and its ability to quickly search, parse, and create content made it the fastest app to reach 1 million users.
The rapid adoption of ChatGPT uncorked significant interest from enterprises and governments interested in AI solutions, including generative AI programs, to improve business processes and practices, and unlock insights from previously siloed data.
AI activity has become so prevalent across most industries that comparisons are being made to the dawn of the Internet Age in the 1990s.
Financial institutions like JP Morgan have deployed AI programs to hedge risks, evaluate loans, and price products. Healthcare companies are evaluating if it can be used to predict drug targets and clinical trial success better. Manufacturers are determining if it can increase production and quality. AI may also help retail stores anticipate sales trends, manage inventory and stop theft. The U.S. government is even considering whether AI can be useful on the battlefield.
AI's potential is seemingly endless, and many are turning to Palantir's (PLTR) expertise in managing and protecting data to train and run new AI apps.
In the past, Palantir's sales were largely driven by helping the U.S. government with its counterterrorism efforts. The company still generates significant sales from the U.S. and its allies. But it's also pushed more deeply into managing, interpreting, and reporting data for large companies.
Those relationships position it perfectly to assist businesses and government entities with designing AI solutions using its AI platform (AIP).
"The demand for [Artificial Intelligence Platform] AIP is unlike anything we have seen in the past twenty years," said Karp last summer. "We are currently in discussions with more than three hundred additional enterprises to deploy AIP within their organizations, all of which are searching for an effective and secure means of adapting the latest large language models for use on their internal systems and proprietary data."
Thanks partly to those discussions, which have led to increasing use of its platform, Palantir's year-over-year sales growth has eclipsed 20% for three consecutive quarters, resulting in double-digit earnings per share growth.
Revenue totaled $736 million and earnings per share were 9 cents in the fourth quarter, up 21% and 16% from the previous year.
The top and bottom line strength is likely to continue. Wall Street analysts' consensus estimate for earnings in 2024 and 2025 is 33 cents and 39 cents per share, respectively, up 34% and 17%.
The new deal with Oracle (ORCL) to jointly sell cloud and AI services could open up the use of Palantir's AIP to more users, further driving sales and earnings growth.
Oracle is one of the top 10 largest cloud providers, and its position as a multi-decade leader in data management means it has a global reach.
Palantir price charts signal new target
Kamich is a technical analyst who has used price, volume, and technical analysis indicators to navigate stocks and markets for over 50 years. His interpretation of Palantir's charts is behind his correct forecast in February that its shares could climb.
To gain insight into what may happen next, he updated his analysis of Palantir's charts on April 4.
Overall, Kamich came away impressed.
"Share prices have been on an upward-trading path for the past 12 months. The shares made a high in early March and pulled back to the rising 50-day moving average line. The slower-to-reaction 200-day moving average has a positive slope and intersects down around $18," said Kamich. "The On-Balance-Volume (OBV) line is in a longer-term advance but has been stalled the past two months, suggesting a balance between bulls and bears. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands just slightly above the zero line."
On-balance volume is essentially up minus down day volume, while MACD is a momentum indicator. Ideally, Kamich would like to see more up-day volume as shares are rising with positive momentum.
Palantir's share price has retreated from a peak above $27 in early March, but down-day volume doesn't appear to be dwarfing up-day volume. Nearly all the stock's down days in the past month have occurred on lower-than-average daily trading volume.
Kamich updated his price targets using point-and-figure charts. His new $48 target price is enticing given it's more than double where shares are trading currently.
"If Palantir continues to trade mostly above $22 it should look like it is building a base for another move higher," concluded Kamich.
Kamich would rethink his outlook if Palantir closes below $18.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Open gap at 17.87
ETSY cpps 67.76
Market Chatter: Etsy Likely to Generate 'Significant, Multiyear Upside,' Elliott's Cohn Says
10:25:39 AM ET, 04/04/2024 - MT Newswires
10:25 AM EDT, 04/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Etsy (ETSY) is likely to generate "significant, multiyear upside" for investors, Elliott Investment Management's managing partner Jesse Cohn said Wednesday, Reuters reported on the same day.
Elliott owns more than 10% stake in Etsy, which has potential to attract more buyers and get more sales, Cohn said at the Sohn Conference in New York, according to the report.
Etsy did not immediately respond to a request for comment by MT Newswires.
The company's shares were about 3% higher in recent trading Thursday.
(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)
Price: 67.09, Change: +1.94, Percent Change: +2.98
Hubspot (HUBS)
Market Chatter: Alphabet Talking With Advisers About Potential HubSpot Offer
10:19:48 AM ET, 04/04/2024 - MT Newswires
10:19 AM EDT, 04/04/2024 (MT Newswires) -- (Updates with additional details.)
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) has been speaking to its advisers about possibly making an offer for HubSpot (HUBS), Reuters reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The technology giant had a meeting with Morgan Stanley's (MS) investment bankers recently to discuss how much it should offer and whether a transaction would be cleared by regulators, the report said, citing the sources.
There is no guarantee that Alphabet will submit a proposal to HubSpot and there is no certainty it will do so, the report added.
Alphabet, HubSpot, and Morgan Stanley did not immediately respond to MT Newswires' requests for comment.
Alphabet's stock was down 1.2%, while HubSpot's shares rose 5.5% in recent trading.
(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)
Market Chatter: Apple Explores Home Robotics After Scrapped Car Project
16:29:51 PM ET, 04/03/2024 - MT Newswires
04:29 PM EDT, 04/03/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Apple (AAPL) is exploring personal robotics as a potential "next big thing," Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Apple engineers are working on a mobile robot that can follow its users, and a tabletop device that uses robotics to move a display, Bloomberg said, adding that these projects are in early stages. Apple is facing pressure to diversify revenue streams after its scrapped electric vehicle project.
Apple's robotics efforts involve its hardware engineering and AI divisions, under the leadership of John Giannandrea, but Apple has yet to fully commit to either project, the report said.
Apple is debating whether consumers would pay for a premium-priced robotic device. The project is facing technical challenges too. Company executives also have internal disagreements on its future development, sources told Bloomberg.
A spokeswoman for Apple declined Bloomberg's request for comment.
Apple didn't immediately respond to MT Newswires' request for comment.
(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)
Price: 169.53, Change: -0.12, Percent Change: -0.07
TSLA targets after quarter delivery miss. High and low marked
3M Company (MMM) recently completed the previously announced spin-off of its healthcare business into a separate public company. The spun-off entity, which is renamed Solventum Corporation, is listed on the NYSE under the ticker SOLV.
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2249069/3m-mmm-completes-divestiture-of-its-healthcare-business
MMM’s shares increased 6% yesterday to eventually close the trading session at $94.02.
MMM shareholders received one share of Solventum stock for every four shares of 3M stock held on the record date for the distribution, Mar 18, 2024. The distribution is proposed to be tax-free to MMM’s shareholders. It’s worth noting that 19.9% of outstanding shares of Solventum stock were retained by 3M and will be monetized within five years after completion of the spin-off.
The spin-off of 3M and its healthcare unit will facilitate each entity to flourish through better operational focus, capital allocation policies and financial flexibility. Solventum will serve a global addressable market worth about $93 billion, which is expected to grow in the range of 4-6% through 2026. The new entity will operate through four operating segments, which are Medical Surgical, Dental Solutions, Health Information Systems and Purification & Filtration.
RIG
cpps 6.83 4/3/24
March 1st = trend shift on RIG
w/ 5 day (5,9 &14 days) crossing back above the 20 day.
20 day above the fifty - all in order heading to the 200 (with pps crossing above the 200 today.)
CMF, MAC, Volume all shifted March 1
Track 20 day (or 50d) 4 norm pullback at some point and+ on tag: for build)
57C/120T with all at 10
Tesla's 'Disaster' Q1 Deliveries Could be Followed by 'Darker Days' if Musk Fails to Reverse Trend, Wedbush Says
11:28:13 AM ET, 04/02/2024 - MT Newswires
11:28 AM EDT, 04/02/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Tesla's (TSLA) Q1 deliveries were an "unmitigated disaster" that could be followed by "some darker days" if Chief Executive Elon Musk fails to reverse the trend, Wedbush said in a note to clients Tuesday.
The electric vehicle maker said Tuesday it delivered 386,810 vehicles in Q1. That was below the Street's expectations of around 443,000 vehicles, according to the note. Tesla also produced 433,371 vehicles in the quarter, compared with the consensus estimate of 452,976 from analysts polled by Bloomberg.
"While we were anticipating a bad 1Q, this was an unmitigated disaster 1Q that is hard to explain away," Wedbush analysts, led by Daniel Ives, said. "We view this as a seminal moment in the Tesla story for Musk to either turn this around and reverse the black eye 1Q performance."
The analysts said that this period is a "fork in the road" for Musk, who will need to "quickly take the reins back in" to regain confidence. "Otherwise, some darker days could clearly be ahead that could disrupt the long-term Tesla narrative" Wedbush said.
That said, the analysts remain "bullish" on the long-term narrative for Tesla given growth prospects and the EV/FSD potential over the coming quarters.
Wedbush maintained its outperform rating on Tesla's stock, with a price target of $300.
"That said" line? Too funny! LOLOLOLOL.
Earnings START 4-2-24
NFLX 4-18 A
RTX 4-23 B
TSLA 4-23 A
T 4-24 B
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AAPL
ABNB
AI
AMZN
BP
DIS
DOCU
FDX
FIZZ
GOOGL
INTC
IRBT
MESA
MMM
NEM
NKE
NVDA
PATH
PERI
PD
PLTR
PLUG
PYPL
QCOM
RBLX
RIG
RKT
RNG
ROKU
ROP
SBUX
SHOP
SQ
TER
TTD
TOST
TWLO
UPST
ZM
Tesla 1Q sales fall nearly 9% as competition heats up and demand for electric vehicles slows
Associated Press Finance
Tue, Apr 2, 2024, 7:18 AM MDT1 min read
DETROIT (AP) — Tesla sales fell sharply last quarter as competition increased worldwide, electric vehicle sales growth slowed, and price cuts failed to draw more buyers.
The Austin, Texas, company said it delivered 386,810 vehicles from January through March, almost 9% below the 423,000 it sold in the same quarter of last year.
Sales also fell short of Wall Street expectations. Analysts polled by FactSet expected Tesla Inc. to deliver 457,000 vehicles.
The slowing sales will make it difficult for the company to reach the annual growth rate of 50% per year that CEO Elon Musk has predicted in most years.
Oil & Gas- Machinery/Equip
BKR Baker Hughes $33.44 (2371)
FTI TechnipFMC $25.49 (832)
NOV NOV $19.70 1.84 (671)
WHD Cactus Cl A $49.64 3.43 (502)
DNOW DNOW $15.13 (435)
MRC MRC Global $12.51 (326)
Transocean Ltd. Announces $195 Million Ultra-Deepwater Drillship Contract
April 01, 2024 16:24 ET
Source: Transocean Ltd.
STEINHAUSEN, Switzerland, April 01, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) (“Transocean”) today announced a 365-day contract extension for the Deepwater Asgard with an independent operator in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The program is expected to commence in June 2024 in direct continuation of the rig’s current program and includes additional services. The total contract value of approximately $195 million includes a $10.9 million lump sum payment, which is not included in the estimated backlog of approximately $184 million.
About Transocean
Transocean is a leading international provider of offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells. Transocean specializes in technically demanding sectors of the global offshore drilling business with a particular focus on deepwater and harsh environment drilling services and operates the highest specification floating offshore drilling fleet in the world.
Transocean owns or has partial ownership interests in and operates a fleet of 36 mobile offshore drilling units, consisting of 28 ultra-deepwater floaters and eight harsh environment floaters. In addition, Transocean is constructing one ultra-deepwater drillship.
THIS BOARD IS FOR TRACKING STOCKS I FOLLOW, OWN, OR TRADE ONLY
Charts are repeated often, and changes are followed and tracked for MY own purpose.
What I post here is for me and truly meaningless to others. Think of it as one big sticky note for me to stay organized.
The Price listed on ANY post, is the PRICE PER SHARE AT THE TIME OF PAGE CREATION. Which can go back a long time.
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Litterbox stox/trdrs
Blackberry (NYSE: BB)
Gamestop Corp (Nyse: GME) pe292
Irobot Corp (Nasd: IRBT)
Plug Power(Nasd: PLUG)
UiPath (Nyse: PATH) pe22
Builds / Cores / New
Airbnb (Nas: ABNB) pe27
Amazon.Com (Nasdaq: AMZN) 121/193 pe42
Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) pe19
Google(Nasd: GOOGL) pe24
Intel Corp (Nasd: INTC) pe18
NVIDIA Corporation (Nasd: NVDA pe69
PayPal Holdings (Nasd: PYPL) pe13
Roblox Corp (Nyse: RBLX )
Transocean (Nyse: RIG) 120/5.19
Ringcentral, Inc (Nyse: RNG) pe9
Roku, Inc (Nasd: ROKU)
Shopify, Inc. (Nyse: SHOP)pe72
Snowflake, Inc (Nyse: SNOW) pe123
Block, Inc (Nyse: SQ) pe23
Tesla(Nasd: TSLA) pe92
Twilio Inc (NYSE: TWLO) pe20
Upstart Holdings (Nasd: UPST)
Zoom Video (Nasd: ZM) pe11
BP PLC (Nyse: BP) pe8
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SQ 84r/ GOOGL 157r/UPST 92r /RIVN 35r
SHOP 51r/PYPL 25r/AAPL 141r
RNG 45r/HA234r/AMC 779r
Core AMZN 1350 GOOGL 2550
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