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Gaps
AMZN Gap 159.76 / GOOGL Gap 143.18 / SQ Gap at 68.44
TWLO Gap 58.58 / PLUG Gap 3.08 / PLTR Gap 17.87
DOCU Gap 54.11 / ZM Gap 64.32 / RBLX Gap at 35.30 and 32.12
AAPL Gap at 172.62
TWLO Gap 58.58
PLUG Gap 3.08
PLTR Gap 17.87
DOCU Gap 54.11
ZM Gap 64.32
GOOGL Gap 143.18
AMZN Gap 159.76
RBLX Gap at 35.30 and 32.12
AAPL Gap at 172.62
SQ Gap at 68.44
TSLA 172.68
GOOGL Gap on news
143.18 h on 3/15
UPST Gap 21.95 cpps 23.14
SHOP +2.32 cpps 78.68
3/13/24
SQ +4.01 cpps 85.72
3/13/24
PYPL
ZM cpps 69.94
GOOGL
Cpps @ 138.78
91-141
134rg Cb on a
gaps: 126.49, 112.94
CP: 750 400 250 400 / 900 350 75 250 250 250 200
NB: 50 25 ✔️ 25 / 50 ✔️ 25 25 25 25 ✔️
T: 1000 500 250 500 / 1000 350 100 500 500 500 200
GOOGL
5d currently 135.57 cpps 138.97
91-141
ROKU Cpps at 64.35
Gap at 59.89 and 63.25
SB 2/26 3/8
CP: 900 300 400 300 / 850 100 100 200 200 450
NB: 100 ✔️ ✔️ ✔️ / 150 150 150 50 50 ✔️
SW: 400 50 150 50 / 300 0 0 0 0 150
T: 1000 250 250 250 /1000 250 250 250 250 300
ROKU Open Gaps
Direction Date range
up Nov-02-2023 59.89 to 69.18 (still in play?)
✔️up Mar-08-2024 63.245 to 63.34 (filled via tail today)
PATH reports 3/13 A
Trend Analysis
PATH appears to be consolidating within a longer term uptrend. Shares are presently above the 200-day moving average, which is rising along with the 10-day moving average. However, the Average Directional Index, or ADX, is below 20, indicating that shares have exhibited sideways movement recently. Comparative Relative Strength analysis shows that this issue is lagging the S&P 500.
As of 11:55 AM ET Tuesday, 03/12/2024
Momentum
Momentum for PATH is strongly bullish. The 14-period Slow Stochastic Oscillator is rising, as investors pay higher prices for shares.
As of 11:55 AM ET Tuesday, 03/12/2024
Volume
Today's volume is on track to be heavier than usual, with 6,840,903 shares having traded so far. The On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) is bullish. The slope of the indicator is positive and suggests that buyers are presently more active than sellers.
As of 11:55 AM ET Tuesday, 03/12/2024
Volatility
Bollinger Bands® use standard deviation of closing prices around a moving average to measure volatility. Presently, the Bollinger Bands® for PATH are of a normal width, and signal that volatility has been in-line with the norm for this stock.
As of 11:55 AM ET Tuesday, 03/12/2024
PATH cpps 24.68
This quarter analysts are expecting UiPath's revenue to grow 24.4% year on year to $383.7 million, improving on the 6.5% year-over-year increase in revenue the company had recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to come in at $0.16 per share.
Earnings? UP? Down?
PATH Open Gaps
Direction Date range
up Dec-01-2023 20.305 to 22.13 (earnings gap)
up Nov-29-2023 19.3 to 19.32
up Nov-14-2023 17.265 to 17.82
up Nov-02-2023 15.57 to 16
Business Summary
UiPath Inc. provides an end-to-end automation platform that offers a range of robotic process automation (RPA) solutions primarily in the United States, Romania, and Japan. The company offers a suite of interrelated software to build, manage, run, engage, measure, and govern automation within the organization. Its platform combines artificial intelligence with desktop recording, back-end mining of both human activity and system logs, and intuitive visualization tools, which enables users to discover, analyze, and identify processes to automate in a centralized portal; offers low-code development environments that allows users in an organization to create attended and unattended automations without any prior knowledge of coding; deploys robots in highly immersive attended experiences or in standalone, unattended modes behind the scenes, and can leverage native connectors built for commonly used line-of-business applications; offers centralized tools designed to manage, test, and deploy automations and ML models across the enterprise; allows customers to manage long running processes that orchestrate work between robots and humans; and enable users to track, measure, and forecast the performance of automation in their enterprise and help businesses ensure compliance with business standards. In addition, the company provides maintenance and support for its software, as well as professional services, such as training and implementation services to facilitate the adoption of its platform. It serves banking, healthcare, financial services, and government entities. UiPath Inc. has collaboration with Deloitte to introduce Turnkey automation offering for growth companies. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
APPL 172.63
Upstart Holdings: A No-Brainer Buy Before The Fed Shift Kicks Off
Mar. 12, 2024 12:56 AM ET
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)
by On the Pulse for Seeking Alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4677495-upstart-holdings-stock-no-brainer-buy-before-fed-shift-kicks-off
Summary
Upstart Holdings' sales trends are improving compared to the beginning of 2023.
The central bank's rate-cutting cycle could be a catalyst for a re-rating of Upstart Holdings' stock in 2024.
Upstart Holdings is poised to profit from the central bank's rate-cutting cycle due to the interest rate sensitivity of its lending business.
Businessman using smartphone on global business network connection for online banking transaction and payment, digital marketing. Financial technology and big data on internet concept.
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) remains unloved and neglected, even though the fintech’s sales trends are looking much better compared to the beginning of 2023.
The present year will be a transition year for Upstart Holdings, and the central bank’s rate timeline could be a catalyst for a re-rating to the upside in 2024.
Upstart Holdings is poised to profit from the central bank’s rate-cutting cycle due to the interest rate sensitivity of the fintech’s lending business.
With sales growth set to turn green again this year, I think that Upstart Holdings’ stock has a great chance to be a major winner in 2024 as well as 2025.
My Rating History
A low valuation multiple and evolving rate-cut expectations have been prime reasons for me to present Upstart Holdings as a promising stock in 4Q-23.
Furthermore, the fintech’s fourth quarter results pointed to an improving sales trajectory and positive adjusted EBITDA.
With the central bank set to initiate a rate-cutting cycle in the latter half of this year, a restart of Upstart Holdings’ lending business has become much more probable.
Moving From Cost Cuts To Business Expansion: A Year Of Change
Looking purely a fintech’s profitability can paint a misleading picture for investors, as startups tend to prioritize sales and platform growth over the single-minded pursuit of profits. A mere focus on profitability, therefore, can cause investors to miss out on potential winners in the market, which I think Upstart Holdings could be.
My thinking basically relates to the fintech’s AI lending focus, which has not paid off very much for the company in the last year or two. The fintech uses AI technology to facilitate lending decisions and works with banks to make its services available to a wider consumer audience.
The central bank threw a wrench into Upstart Holdings’ business in 2022 by hiking rates and as a consequence, the fintech has seen a rather steep decrease in its sales.
Last year, the fintech’s total sales crashed 39% YoY to $514 million, thanks to higher rates which in turn caused lending demand to cool down.
With that said, though, the rate of the sales decline has moderated substantially in the latter half of the year with sales dropping 14% in 3Q-23 and 4% in 4Q-23. In 1Q-23, sales crashed a concerning 67% YoY which was right at the time when the central bank accelerated its rate hikes. In 2Q-23, sales crashed 40%.
Sales Overview
Upstart Holdings produced a boatload of losses last year because of the unprecedented drop in sales. However, as the business stabilizes (which it has) and the company focuses on slashing costs, I think there is a very real argument to make that the fintech could crush it during the next down-cycle in short-term interest rates.
Upstart Holdings moved quickly at the beginning of 2023 and slashed 20% of its jobs as part of its January 2023 Plan in an attempt to realign its cost structure with a more challenging macro environment. As a consequence, Upstart Holdings should enter into the next credit-expansion cycle as a leaner, more efficient company which could help the fintech finally move to a point where it can report profits from its artificial intelligence-supported lending activities.
Upstart Holdings lowers its operating expenses to $187.8 million in 4Q-23, down 9% YoY. For the full year, the fintech curtailed its spending on operating spending by a whopping 19%. As a consequence, Upstart Holdings lost $42.4 million in the fourth quarter as opposed to $55.3 million.
With potentially even more spending cuts on the way and the central bank poised to change the interest rate setup, I think Upstart Holdings could be the ultimate winner of a Fed shift in 2024. Though 2024 is set to be a transition year for the fintech, the risk/reward relationship is highly positive, in my view.
Total Operating Expenses
Upstart Holdings Has Substantial Re-Rating Potential In 2024
Upstart Holdings went through a major transformation of the business landscape in the last two years, thanks to the central bank pushing for higher short-term interest rates.
The market presently models $574.9 million in sales this year which reflects a paltry growth rate of only 2.6%. However, next year, in 2025, sales are set to get a boost of 28.4% to $738.2 million as the central bank should be well on its way in bringing short-term interest rates down. For Upstart Holdings, this would be a catalyst for higher originations, revived sales growth, and a potential fast-track to finally reporting profits.
Based on $574.9 million in estimated sales, Upstart Holdings is selling for a 4.1x sales multiple compared to 5.4x for Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) and 3.1x for SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI). When taking into account Upstart Holdings’ potential to return to double digit sales growth next year and reap the rewards of its January 2023 reorganization plan, I think Upstart Holdings has substantial re-rating potential in 2024.
Revenue Estimate
Risks with Upstart Holdings
Higher-for-longer short-term interest rates, unfortunately, remain a top risk for Upstart Holdings as well as other credit-dependent financial startups. Upstart Holdings is poised to see stronger personal loan originations in a low-rate environment as opposed to a high-rate environment, so inflation flare-ups in the coming months are a negative for Upstart Holdings.
Unless inflation really makes a big comeback, I think we are going to see an improving business setup for Upstart Holdings throughout the year.
My Conclusion
Upstart Holdings is still producing losses and this won’t change in 2024. However, the business could be in a position of strength as the company continues to cut costs and the central bank lowers short-term interest rates.
Lower key interest rates are set to lead to an uptick in lending which in turn should translate into much faster sales growth for Upstart Holdings.
Slashing costs is making Upstart Holdings a much leaner company and it could reap the reward sooner than investors think.
With a rate cut coming closer, I would expect to see upside momentum building in the UPST trade in the coming months.
This article was written by
On the Pulse
10.82K Followers
A financial researcher and avid investor with a keen eye for innovation and disruption, as well as growth buy-outs and value stocks. Keeping an eye on the pace of high tech and early growth companies, I write about current events and the biggest news surrounding the industry, and strive to provide readers with ample research and investment opportunities.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of UPST either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
AAPL Cpps at 172.57
141rg: S/NBs/LT/a
CP: 250 100 100 100 / 250 50 25 100 100 100
NB: 50 25 25 25 / 50 25 25 25 25 25
T: 500 400 300 300 / 500 300 50 300 300 400
AAPL 172.65
TSLA 177.41
Good Morning EU, Re: Ideas from the Best/Worst Value Line List...................
Note there are 8 of the 41 worst stocks from the Broadcast/Entertainment sector (Pages # 2300 and up). This is usually a sign that the sector is a bit over-sold. I'll go study the stocks in an over-sold sector to look for the best long term potentials.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
PLUG cpps 4.02 on March 10, 2024
__________________________________________________________
Plug from January 29, 2024
Green Hydrogen Pioneer Plug Power to Build 6 Plants With Big US Loan
By Mary B. Powers, Debra K. Rubin
https://www.enr.com/articles/58068-green-hydrogen-pioneer-plug-power-to-build-6-plants-with-big-us-loan
The U.S. Energy Dept. is set to finalize by the end of March a $1.6-billion loan to clean energy technology firm Plug Power Inc. to build six U.S. green hydrogen production plants, company executives told analysts and investors on Jan. 23. Construction would start in the second half of 2024, with plans to produce 500 tons per day domestically by the end of 2025.
“The loan can catalyze our ongoing projects … expected to generate over 200 tons of hydrogen daily,” said CEO Andy Marsh. The DOE loan and January opening of the Latham, N.Y,-based firm’s Georgia hydrogen production plant made some analysts less concerned about the firm’s recently disclosed financial statements.
Plug Power is a corporate sponsor of five of seven U.S. hydrogen hubs DOE selected last year to share a total of $7 billion in federal funding from the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law.
Citing supply chain constraints, the company said in a November federal filing, “there is no assurance that our hydrogen production will scale at the rate we anticipate or that we will complete hydrogen production plants on schedule." The firm also speculated it could lack “sufficient capital to fund our operations through the next twelve months.” BMO Capital analyst Ameet Thakkar noted an “arduous path” for the firm until its federal funding is in place.
But other analysts were more positive and Marsh was optimistic, referring to the filing as a short-term technical requirement. “While the industry growth over the past few years hasn’t met our initial expectation, we remain optimistic about its future, especially with increasing government support," he said. "The essential role of hydrogen in addressing climate change is undisputed.”
Startup in Georgia
The Woodbine, Ga.. plant is a large proton exchange membrane electrolyzer coupled with a liquefaction plant that will initially produce 15 tons of fuel per day, which is expected to double. The company plant in St. Gabriel, La., under way in a joint venture with chemical manufacturer Olin, is set to start operation later this year. Olin is North America’s largest producer of electrolytic hydrogen, Plug Power said.
Plug Power CFO Paul Middleton, however, told analysts that US Treasury Dept. proposed rules last month on federal tax credits for hydrogen projects were not as favorable as expected. Marsh termed them "disappointing" but expected they would 'loosen up" as final rules are negotiated, he told Bloomberg TV.
The added cost of construction for the Georgia plant was a source of concern, Marsh told investors. “Part of that was really difficult, because it was a first of its kind," he said, adding "we certainly made design changes." Marsh said the EPC [contractor] '"was not willing to commit to how much it would cost." Project construction took 18 months to complete. S&B Engineers and Constructors Ltd. was the EPC contractor.
The final plant cost was not disclosed and not provided by story posting time.
Plug Power expects to get a commitment on construction cost for its Texas plant, being built by Kiewit, said Marsh, who added that design changes would actually lower the figure. The 120-MW facility, under way for New Fortress Energy near Beaumont, is that company's first investment in green hydrogen. It would produce 50 tons per day initially and is scalable to 400 MW, Plug Power said in a 2022 announcement,
He expects that expansion of the Georgia plant's size will cost 40% less, and that the price of its hydrogen would be one-third of what it would be if purchased from a third party. Marsh estimated that figure at about $10 million per ton.
Capital investment in the 45 ton-per-day plant in Texas and 74 ton-per-day plant in New York has slowed “until we find the right financing solution,” CFO Paul Middleton said during the call. The latter project, in Genesee County, N.Y., is part of what Marsh said during a November 2023 earnings call was an estimated $678-million overall investment in the state. On the latest call, he said Plug Power selected an EPC contractor for the electrolyzer but did not identify the firm.
Resolving Plug Power cash management issues is its “foremost priority,” but growth is critical, said the CEO on the January call. "We're focusing on growth that can enhance cash generation,” he noted.
Amazon commissioned in December a 1-MW Plug Power electrolyzer system at a Colorado fulfillment center—the retaii giant's first—that is set to produce green hydrogen for more than 225 hydrogen fuel cell-powered forklift trucks at the site. Hydrogen will be compressed on site and stored. The energy firm said hydrogen used at Amazon sites now is produced offsite, liquified and delivered by truck to an on-site storage and dispensing system.
“We’re excited about our ability to produce hydrogen at Amazon facilities through this partnership with Plug,” said Asad Jafry, firm director of global hydrogen economy. "On-site production will make the use of hydrogen even more energy efficient for certain locations and types of facilities.”
Plug Power also announced last year it would build three electrolyzer facilities in Finland, at an estimated cost of $6 billion and capacity of 2.2 GW, to produce about 850 tonnes per day of green hydrogen and ammonia for the European market by 2030.
Plug Power said Technip Energies is engineering and technology contractor for the projects, with a final investment decision in 2025 or 2026.
"These projects are expected to represent some of the largest investments in the European [hydrogen] market," the firm said.
TSLA cpps 175.34
Open Gaps
Direction Date range
up May-04-2023162.95 to 163.51
up Jan-26-2023 146.41 to 154.76
up Jan-23-2023 133.51 to 134.27
up Jan-17-2023 122.63 to 125.02
up Jan-09-2023 114.39 to 117.11
3-9-24
ROKU 64.50
RBLX 39.94
ZM 67.16
IRBT 10.42
DOCU 55.97
PYPL 59.01
TWLO 61.86
EV maker Rivian's new R2 is already getting thousands of reservations
Customers have to put down a deposit for the new midsize electric SUV
By Francisco Velasquez
https://qz.com/rivian-r2-reservations-ev-stock-1851320306
Rivian’s R2 model will include fast charging and self-driving capabilities.
Electric vehicles are still capturing the hearts, minds and wallets of at least some consumers. In less than 24 hours, Rivian’s new R2 model got more than 68,000 reservations, the company’s chief executive said.
“We are thrilled to see this vehicle resonate so strongly with our community!” Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe said Friday on X.
U.S. customers paid a $100 deposit fee, while Canadian residents paid $150 to reserve their car, according to the company’s website. Rivian promises a full refund for customers who change their mind.
During an event Thursday in California, the EV maker revealed the R2 model, a midsized electric SUV that seats five. The Rivian R2 is expected to start at about $45,000, the company said, with deliveries to begin in the first half of 2026.
Details of how many reservations Rivian’s R3 and R3X models have attracted haven’t been revealed. But according to the company, the cars will have “tighter dimensions” and will be priced lower than the R2.
Rivian plans to make the R2 model at its Illinois factory rather than the Georgia plant where it had planned to invest $5 billion.
Rivian stock, which rose Thursday following the release of the R2, was trading up about 2.5% Friday afternoon.
RNG cpps 36.27
THIS BOARD IS FOR TRACKING STOCKS I FOLLOW, OWN, OR TRADE ONLY
Charts are repeated often, and changes are followed and tracked for MY own purpose.
What I post here is for me and truly meaningless to others. Think of it as one big sticky note for me to stay organized.
The Price listed on ANY post, is the PRICE PER SHARE AT THE TIME OF PAGE CREATION. Which can go back a long time.
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Litterbox stox/trdrs
Blackberry (NYSE: BB)
Gamestop Corp (Nyse: GME) pe292
Irobot Corp (Nasd: IRBT)
Plug Power(Nasd: PLUG)
UiPath (Nyse: PATH) pe22
Builds / Cores / New
Airbnb (Nas: ABNB) pe27
Amazon.Com (Nasdaq: AMZN) 121/193 pe42
Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) pe19
Google(Nasd: GOOGL) pe24
Intel Corp (Nasd: INTC) pe18
NVIDIA Corporation (Nasd: NVDA pe69
PayPal Holdings (Nasd: PYPL) pe13
Roblox Corp (Nyse: RBLX )
Transocean (Nyse: RIG) 120/5.19
Ringcentral, Inc (Nyse: RNG) pe9
Roku, Inc (Nasd: ROKU)
Shopify, Inc. (Nyse: SHOP)pe72
Snowflake, Inc (Nyse: SNOW) pe123
Block, Inc (Nyse: SQ) pe23
Tesla(Nasd: TSLA) pe92
Twilio Inc (NYSE: TWLO) pe20
Upstart Holdings (Nasd: UPST)
Zoom Video (Nasd: ZM) pe11
BP PLC (Nyse: BP) pe8
____________________________________________________________________________________
SQ 84r/ GOOGL 157r/UPST 92r /RIVN 35r
SHOP 51r/PYPL 25r/AAPL 141r
RNG 45r/HA234r/AMC 779r
Core AMZN 1350 GOOGL 2550
AI
