Jon's CHARTS

[jon_e_og]

Wednesday May 24 2006: STOCK MARKET CRASH possible...

With todays action I feel we have a higher probability chance for a crash or significant decline tomorrow than ever before in the history of my following the market... between now and the 2nd week of june i would pt the odds about 50/50 ... trade carefully

we went from + 13 to -10 , to close at the LOD on HEAVY panic selling... im curious to see how the futures trade after globex opens in a lil bit

but the action this afternoon was very scary, the only chance now is for the fed to step in a pump this thing full of liquidity... but w/ inflation where its at their hands seem to be tied...

[jon_e_og]

They gap the market up and hold it up all day... then in the last 2 hours we go from + 13 to close - 3, even after cash closed we're still getting pressure on the futures and they just broke yesterdays low, we got within 4 pts of the crucial 125000 level

it looked like a race to get out of the market into the close...could tomorrow be the day that everyone has feared? maybe

GOLD on the other hand had a very strong day bouncing as much as 37 points of its monday low ... looking for pullbacks to add to my position

[jon_e_og]

Dow priced in gold(BELOW)...historical average is around 9 which would price gold @ 1300 based on todays dow, or the dow @ 5850 based on todays gold...

BUT, and heres the good part, theres two lower lows between the great depression and the 80's inflation scare/crash...connecting those lows you come to an area around 1, which would put gold @ 11,700 based on todays dow, or the dow @ 650 on todays gold price....

i cant imagine those extremes happening (ex. gold moving to the extreme and the dow staying costant) so if you take a simple midpoint you would get a gold price and a price of the dow around 6175...

WE have been and contine to be in a bear market in equities, since 2000, the dow chart you see on cnbc is an illussion, you need to hold a value constant if you want to use it as a measure of another things value, and we all the know dollar is anything but a constant....

[jon_e_og]

first time in a week and a half ive seen some effort to put a bottom in....

S&P would need to push up another 2.5 pts to break its descending ressistance line thats been in place for 8 days around 126650 in ES06M ... looks like we could do 1.5 mil + contracts today which is a BIG days, slow days are around 400 - 600k contracts...

the volume is there but is anyone other than the fed ready to step in and support the market? seems doubtful but the market does need a break from its oversold condition... if it holds this down channel(which im betting it will) and we break 125000 then id be very worried being long any equity market, anywhere in the world... India crashed today, Europe and Asia have been taking a hit as well, the S&P has dropped 8 days straight and fell as much as 77 points so far...

any more and panic will start to manifest itself, there are alot of people long and alot of bullish sentiment out there, as major technical levels are broken to the downside you have longs being forced out, technical and program positions coming on strong, and large institution players will look for protection by selling futures or buying puts, putting more pressure on cash markets...

Gold has rallied 20 pts off the low this morning... i love the gaps they put in driving gold down at the begining of NY trading, rumors of some big players adding to shorts near the highs, this gold market is trouble for ALOT of people...if it can crack the overwhelming short put on by central banks and some big players all hell will break lose....

if people start to see gold testing its old nominal high of 850 and the market dropping, and bonds dropping, and the USD dollar dropping the move in gold will be so fast and furious ... all China has to do is up their gold reserves from %1.5 to %5 and you could easily see new highs...Middle Eastern Countries and Russia are also suspected of increasing gold supplies as they understand whats going on and the type of paper short position there is out there...

all that i know for sure is this is gonna be a crazy year...

[jon_e_og]

no, it will be much much worse

sorry for all the pessimism but we gotta be ready for it

[CPTMatt]

Are you saying that you believe we are going to experience another Great Depression?

[jon_e_og]

GOLD targets:

$1000/oz + by the end of 2006

$3000/oz + within 5 years if the US economy/dollar doesnt collapse...

if the USD does collapse, which i think it will, gold will be invaluable.... you wont be able to find an ounce anywhere

[jon_e_og]

a brief glimpse of inflation: if it wasnt for our policy of exporting inflation using oil priced in dollars, importing deflation from southeast asia, and understating consumer/producer price growth our USD would be half the value it was in 1997... but the system is close to critical mass and the house of cards is about to fall apart

[Pho Real]

I agree. wtf did they stop releasing the M3 number.

[jon_e_og]

Long Gold ~ 655 and Long GLD 64.95 ... needed to get long gold into the weekend after a %10 correction from the highs...

if central banks and wholesale bullion banks weren't trying to keep the price artificially low for the last 20 years and we had an accurate measure of inflation out of the fed Gold would be 1000+ already....

Its crazy how many people price gold on conventional fed inflation measures and yet they dont care about the MASSIVE growth in money supply over the last 93 years that the fed recently stopped reporting on, the M3 number.

Whats even scarier are these economists and pundits claiming that the rise in metals , energy, housing prices is the CAUSE of inflation. high prices DONT CAUSE inflation, they are the consequence of inflation and reduced purchasing power, which is cuased by an increase in the money supply(i.e. more dollar bills printed and loaned out of thin air)

Why should Americans who are the major USD holders, care how many dollar bills "hellicopter ben" can legally counterfeit anyway ?

[jon_e_og]

Orders in to buy physical gold @ 656, will add every 20 pts lower until a good portion of my assets are in the precious metals ... a lil late to the gold party but in terms of TRUE inflated dollars gold should be in the 1000's, its not a speculative play but a very defensive move to protect assets as the USD and paper assets emplode



also looking to buy palladium < 360

[jon_e_og]

bulls tried all morning to bounce the market, that failed miserably and we give up another 10 pts after being + 7 in the morning... we've given up 70 pts in 6 days

1250 fails and who knows how low we go... if we break it tomorrow things should get real ugly

[jon_e_og]

ya, the fed governors literally lieing to the market about a rate pause pushed us higher than i thought we would go before this...

next 2 weeks will give us the signal as to wether this is simply a large pullback in the 3 yr bull market or if this is something bigger...

in 5 days we've lost almost all the gains this year, and if you price the market in gold we're down BIG...

get out of the market, get out of debt, get out of the USD...

PRECIOUS METALS on the first significant pullback, real-estate(if prices crash), and maybe the Swiss Franc if you NEED to hold a paper currency

[CPTMatt]

You think this is the big dive you were predicting for March?

[jon_e_og]

TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN IN S&P ... market rolls over and dies, giving up 55 pts in 5 trading sessions - market participants will be scrambling to buy volatility(especially to the downside) and take on added protection/insurance putting more pressure on market to push important support levels and take the bulls with some brains out of the market.. the rest of the morons will wait to sell sub 125000 in ES

[jon_e_og]

u better believe it...

[Pho Real]

mad bearish

[jon_e_og]

started buying short end of yield curve today...

Long 912828EY2 UNITED STATES TREASURY NOTE 4.62% 02/29/2008 - YIELD %4.86

will add to it until fed is done or sends us into recession....

[jon_e_og]

target hit, a little late but good enough w/ ES06M trading to a 132150 high and cash hitting ~ 1310.00... im still looking for a top in the market here, but will condition it with the possibility for another blow-off/capitualion rally before we finally roll over and die...

Posted by: jon_e_og
In reply to: None Date:1/28/2006 7:13:06 PM
Post #of 1950
The end of the 3 yr bull market... according to cycle highs/lows , wave pattern, and overall sturcture of S&P we should have 1 more high somewhere between 1310 - 1325 in S&P futures(1305 + in cash) sometime in late February or early March...
S&P target by early

[Pho Real]

jon's minitower won't cut it

[CPTMatt]

Well.... a couple of cray computers running in parallel would probably do the trick.

[Pho Real]

nothing is ever to massive

just load the data before you go to bed.... when you wake up it will be near finished

[jon_e_og]

havent tried, but i cant get the time & sales trade data for the forex market like i can for futures, and if i did the number of transactions would be too massive to run regressions of...

[CPTMatt]

Does the new system you created work in FOREX?

[jon_e_og]

3 day mean price still moving up, high probability buys 128500 - 128000(which we could buy now in globex market) and higher prob buys < 128500

high prob sells 129500 - 129850 and higher prob sells > 129850

[jon_e_og]

the rest of the sad story...

from 129550 ES goes to 129900 giving 11.5 pts from the buy...then i sell 129775, market tops i cover for + 3 and it drops to 128600 giving up 11.75 points from the sell...

a total of 23.25 potential points i only get 6...

[jon_e_og]

low of the day was 128450, bought 128750, sold for +3 and then it goes + 8 to 129550, which is in the sell zone as well...

[Pho Real]

LOL took me so long to post... covered INTC and out AMD

[Pho Real]

Short INTC Long AMD

[jon_e_og]

Bullish bias in ES above 128400(if that fails looking @ 128100 and 127850 to downside), looking to buy 128600 - 128850, on the upside looking for markte to test 129400 - 129650, which may work as a good sell if ES stays < 199800, if that falls then will look for ES to test 130300/130400

[jon_e_og]

we got 1 tic off 130000 and failed yesterday, we broke 128500 and stopped at the 128000 level outlined as support,

127775 127500 127275 to watch on downside tomorrow, looking to SELL 128475 to 128725

[jon_e_og]

system giving some conflicting signals but mainly to buy above support w/ high probability buys 128725 - 129000, looking for ES to hold 128500, if 128500 fails on downside system says to look for 128000 area next...

key areas to watch will be 129600(last weeks highs) 129800 and 130100, if we get through 129600 I have a feeling the bulls will run the market through stops and 130100 could fall very quickly, at that point id be looking for ES to make an attempt at 131000 - 131500 sometime this week

[jon_e_og]

ya we had dips to 128825 and 128700 and 128900, which were all high probability buys and gave atleast 5 points....

tried 5 buys total, 2 were filled and both worked for more than 1 pt...all 5 would have given profit if could have filled

if it wasnt for Oil + 2 i think our 129700 target would have been reached...

[otcbargains]

Seeking opinion again.

Respectfully appreciate all opinions.

TIA


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=UCPJ,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUl14!Ld20]&pr...

[Pho Real]

Awesome day!

[jon_e_og]

system saying to buy dips over 128500, possible 129700 today which could trigger some programs and stops into 130100 area....

[jon_e_og]

system worked very well again today, tomorrow similar story, overall bulltrend in pullback mode building a base above the support area outlined yesterday, will look to buy in front of 128000 and sell under 129500 or so for high probability trades....

[otcbargains]

Thank you for your analysis.


That .0045 break may be just around the corner when you combine the fundemental analysis with the t/a.

It is illiquid but that will change if they report a profit for the year. Float of 34 mil. A 4th q profit of 21K or more will make this a profitable stock for the year.

Liquidity has been a problem since i started to follow it but volume is up substantially in recent weeks.

[jon_e_og]

longterm down trend into subpenny zone, trying to build a base down here but history has shown it unable to put in any real bottom...there has been a large pick up in volume off the new lows which is bullish but was unable to hold above above .043 retrace after its test of .07 ressistance

Id be watching for a .045 break on some volume and increase my position on a .07 break...would also like to see it hold .03, remember this is an illiquid OTC in longterm downtrend that ur trying to play off bottom, it needs to prove itself first

athlonmanK deals w/ these otcbb bottom plays, maybe he can give his opinion as well...

good luck

[otcbargains]

I would appreciate an opinion on this chart.



http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ucpj,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb20!b30][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&am...

[jon_e_og]

System showing S&P still in bulltrend w/ decreasing volatility, a sign 130000 + is coming in ES shortly... I think we need a pullback before bulls can take the 130100 down... our high probability sells are 129900 or better and 129750 - 129900, but if we get that close to 130100 the bulls may want to break it out, if we make moves up there on monday morning and market strucutre accomodates it may be wise to sell, if we pullback and hold support then we'll probably wait for a break of 130100 to start our selling party ... the main message is pullback -> support building around 128000 - 128275 -> 130100 break -> breakout move -> MULTI YEAR TOP in S&P (remember the call for a high in ES in late Feb / early March)

[amank7]

I dont get it? Seemed pretty on to me today . Looks good.

[jon_e_og]

today we're getting conflicting signals, theres a high probability sell at 128575 or better, and a lower probability sell at 128225 or better(which we could sell right now premarket) , but there is also a small chance we make a run at 129000, in any event the high probability trade is still a sell, it just may need some room to work...

[jon_e_og]

nope, created it myself, in 2 days its opened about 30 pts in the S&P, i cant believe it

i missed buying the LOD yesterday by 1 tic, lol

[CPTMatt]

That's a crazy looking chart Jon. Is that some industrial strength trading software you got your hands on?

[jon_e_og]

the new system called todays move almost perfectly, tomorrow its saying we go lower, a %99.5 chance of lower prices selling 128150 or better, a %97.5 chance selling 127700 or better - it sounds crazy, but we could retrace most of yesterdays move, would target 126700 area on extreme move... (the dates on bottom of chart are wrong, the data represents last 4 trading days)

[jon_e_og]

please son, daddy got paid tonite

[Pho Real]

Houston, TX -- (NEWSWIRE) -- Feb 3, 2006 -- US goverment officials discovered a tunnel going from Mexcio to Texas inside Dan's Nose.

[Pho Real]

7 points lol

good number to bet against in a football game.

[jon_e_og]

Seattle better win, or atleast not lose by 5, 6, 7, or 25+

and also... no t/ds from the 1 yrd line