Jinko Solar Holding (JKS)

[realfast95]

JinkoSolar: Q3 Softer Margin; Why YieldCo Is Unlikley
August 19, 2014, 5:09 A.M. ET

By Shuli Ren

JinkoSolar‘s (JKS) second-quarter earnings were roughly in line with expectations.

Revenue came in at $392.1 million, ahead of the consensus $390.5 million. Earnings per share was $0.8 versus the expected $0.74.

But investors did not like JinkoSolar’s gross margin guidance, sending its shares down 2.7%. Here is Axiom Capital‘s analyst Gordon Johnson:

C2Q14 gross margins were down -140bps QoQ (although essentially in line with Street ests.), yet JKS is guiding C3Q14 gross margins to 20% (~300bps below Consensus), or down another 260bps (yes, you heard that right).

With in-line earnings and weak Q3 margin guidance, the key idiosyncratic catalyst for JinkoSolar would be an IPO of its Yield Co, said Roth Capital Partners:

JKS continues to work towards an IPO of its project business. JKS expects to have ~800MW of grid-connected projects by YE’14 (vs. 252MW at the end of Q2 and 213MW at YE’13), which should be sufficient for a yieldco IPO.

The IPO of ~800MW of project assets is expected at YE’14 or early 2015 and could be an upside catalyst for the stock.

Axiom Capital is less optimistic, saying:

From our checks in China, we have learned that banks will not finance projects until the FiTs are actually being paid – even if they are connected to the grid. We have also learned that many of the projects installed in China in C4Q13 (i.e., ~6GW worth), even though connected to the grid, are not receiving FiT payments… this same thing happened in the wind space, but everyone seems to have forgotten, and are placing large bets that the Chinese govt. won’t do in the solar space in 2014/15 the same thing it did in the wind space in 2012 – despite record wind installations in 2012, due to curtailment + issues connecting to the grid + restrictions on who could connect due to fraud (this sounds oddly similar to what’s going on in the solar space in China currently), Chinese wind companies saw their revenues plummet in 2012… caveat emptor.

Thus, while many on the Street expect/expected JKS to announce a YieldCo by year-end 2014, this dynamic now appears highly unlikely as the Chinese projects simply are not paying out a yield (or cash). This also suggests a YieldCo from CSIQ, as they hinted at last week, is unlikely.

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2014/08/19/jinkosolar-q3-softer-margin-why-yieldco-is-unlikley/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

[realfast95]

$JKS 27.03 | PT lowered to 43.50 (from 48.90) -Jefferies
(keeps Buy on shares & calls them 'attractively valued')

[realfast95]

JKS beat my expectations. Re-entered lightly.

[squashjohn]

Seems ER didnt beat by enough & street is gonna take her down first.. I'd expect a hard rebound at some point though cause earnings did beat - be it not as large as expected maybe

[realfast95]

with today's financing news, they upped their guidance for 2014 installation.

[realfast95]

China Solar: US Anti-Dumping Heavier Than 2012, Don’t Panic

By Shuli Ren


The U.S. Commerce Department issued a preliminary ruling on anti-dumping duties that Chinese and Taiwanese solar companies will have to pay when they sell crystalline silicon (c-Si) solar photovoltaic (PV) products in the U.S.

This round of anti-dumping duties is heavier than what we saw in 2012. Trina Solar (TSL), which received 17% of its revenue from the US in 2013, will have to pay 26.3%. It was paying 16% in 2012. Yingli Green Energy (YGE), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), and Hanwha SolarOne (HSOL) will have to pay 42.3%. They paid 14.8% in 2012. Renesola (SOL) and JinkoSolar (JKS) will be paying 58.9%, versus 15.2% in 2012. All the other Chinese companies will pay 165% anti-dumping duties.

Taiwan manufacturers are also imposed an anti-dumping duty this time. Chinese solar companies have been using Taiwan as a manufacturing base to import to the US so as to circumvent the tariffs they face. Motech Industries (6244-ROCO) got a 28% tariff and all others are subject to a 36% rate. Shares of Motech slumped 6.9% today. Gintech Energy (3514.TW) also lost 6.9%.

What should we make of this news clip? Panic?

The preliminary ruling is not as a big deal as you might expect. Market is already priced in, according to Deutsche Bank analysts Eric Cheng and Michael Tong:

We believe such ruling is negative to market sentiment, though market should have already anticipated an affirmative preliminary determination from the DOC.

Plus, this is just a preliminary round. Back in 2012, the U.S. Department of Commerce lowered their final tariffs. For instance, Trina was at first asked to pay 18.3%, and the final result was 16%. Yingli and JinkoSolar, from 26% to 15.2%. So we may reasonably expect a discount this time too, according to J.P. Morgan analysts Boris Kan and Elaine Wu, who urged us to buy on dip:

There might be room for a reduction, as seen in the 2012 case where the finalized AD duties in Oct 2012 (19-32%) were lower than the preliminary AD duties in May 2012 (~31%).

While the market has been anticipating the DOC determinations, the news will still be taken as a NT negative conceivably. That said, any NT correction would represent good buying opportunities from a 6-12 months’ horizon as a major sector overhang is now removed. Any reduction in AD duties in the DOC’s final determination (as in 2012) would be a +ve surprise to the market.

[squashjohn]

Well.. Market seems to like news. Go figure.. Pump up for a 'cert' short-sell?

[realfast95]

yes it was known. And Friday's announcement isn't final. The shorts never miss an opportunity even after hours on a Friday.
Should be brief Monday.

Josh Brown on CNBC dropped his pick of the solar ETF TAN on Friday noon hour over the tariff issue. Then picked FSLR as the beneficiary of the tariffs. I agree, but many US projects are halted and in trouble over this. Thousands of American installers could lose their jobs.

[squashjohn]

Weren't these tariffs already known though after July 18th.. All Chin solars are goin down AH. Cud be red early next week

[realfast95]

UPDATE 1-U.S. sets anti-dumping duties on solar imports from China, Taiwan

Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:23pm EDT


(Reuters) - The United States on Friday set new import duties on solar products from China and Taiwan after the Commerce Department found that the solar panels and cells are being sold too cheaply on the U.S. market.

Preliminary anti-dumping duties as high as 165.04 percent for Chinese goods would come on top of anti-subsidy levies imposed last month, as the U.S. arm of German solar manufacturer SolarWorld AG seeks to close a loophole allowing Chinese producers to sidestep duties imposed in 2012.

China's Trina Solar faces total import duties of nearly 30 percent and Suntech Power nearly 50 percent as a result of the U.S. decision on Friday.

Taiwanese producers face anti-dumping duties of up to 44.18 percent, with the highest rate applying to Motech Industries , the Commerce Department said.

The new duties, which must still be confirmed, are likely to inflame U.S.-China tensions already exacerbated by recent accusations that Chinese military officers were cyber-spying on U.S. companies involved in trade disputes, including SolarWorld.

[realfast95]

Equities research analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. started coverage on shares of JinkoSolar Holding Co. (NYSE:JKS) in a research note issued to investors on Monday. The firm set a “neutral” rating and a $31.00 price target on the stock

[squashjohn]

Chinese Solars continue to get hammered across board. WTO ruling hasn't given any respite.. Long term I'm still upbeat on JKS/CSIQ/TSL & i'm dabbling with HSOL/SOL/YGE..

[stocktrademan]

$JKS recent news/filings

bullish
larger stocks

## source: finance.yahoo.com

Wed, 16 Jul 2014 14:30:54 GMT ~ JinkoSolar Gets $161 Million in China Minsheng Financing

[at Bloomberg] - JinkoSolar Holding Co. (JKS) , the best-performing Chinese solar manufacturer in the past year, will receive as much as 1 billion yuan ($161.1 million) in financing from China Minsheng Banking Corp. to fund acquisitions, power plants and other activities. The five-year agreement will include project finance, bridge loans, letters of guarantee, supply chain funding and other support, Shangrao, China-based JinkoSolar said today in a statement. The deal will help the company develop distributed solar projects in China, where “development over the past few years has been hampered by financing difficulties,” JinkoSolar Chairman Li Xiande said in the statement. An 88.8 million-yuan loan for a 20-megawatt rooftop solar project in Zhejiang province will be the first under the agreement.

read full: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-16/jinkosolar-gets-161-million-in-china-minsheng-financing.html?cmpid=yhoo
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Wed, 16 Jul 2014 12:18:23 GMT ~ JinkoSolar Signs RMB1 Billion Strategic Financing Agreement with China Minsheng Bank

[at noodls] - SHANGHAI, July 16, 2014 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. ("JinkoSolar" or the "Company") (NYSE: JKS), a global leader in the solar PV industry, today announced ...

read full: http://www.noodls.com/view/CD5728F865624FFD88B231166FC2B60076696B3F
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Wed, 16 Jul 2014 11:03:00 GMT ~ 7:03 am JinkoSolar Holding signs RMB1 bln strategic financing agreement with China Minsheng Bank


read full: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/inplay-briefing-com-055139997.html#jks
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Wed, 16 Jul 2014 11:00:00 GMT ~ JinkoSolar Signs RMB1 Billion Strategic Financing Agreement with China Minsheng Bank

[PR Newswire] - SHANGHAI, July 16, 2014 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. ("JinkoSolar" or the "Company") (NYSE: JKS), a global leader in the solar PV industry, today announced ...

read full: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jinkosolar-signs-rmb1-billion-strategic-110000958.html
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Mon, 14 Jul 2014 19:25:00 GMT ~ WTO Ruling Lifts SolarCity, Slams U.S. Steelmakers


read full: http://news.investors.com/071414-708616-US-steel-and-solar-firms-impacted-by-elimination-of-tariff-on-Chinese-products.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo
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$JKS charts

basic chart ## source: stockcharts.com



basic chart ## source: eoddata.com



big daily chart ## source: stockcharts.com



big weekly chart ## source: stockcharts.com


$JKS company information

## source: otcmarkets.com

Link: http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/JKS/company-info
Ticker: $JKS
OTC Market Place: Not Available
CIK code: not found
Company name: JinkoSolar Holdings Co., Ltd.
Incorporated In:

Business Description:


$JKS share structure

## source: otcmarkets.com

Market Value: Not Available
Shares Outstanding: Not Available
Float: Not Available
Authorized Shares: Not Available
Par Value: No Par Value
$JKS extra dd links

Company name: JinkoSolar Holdings Co., Ltd.
## STOCK DETAILS ##
After Hours Quote (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/after-hours
Option Chain (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/option-chain
Historical Prices (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=JKS+Historical+Prices
Company Profile (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=JKS+Profile
Industry (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/in?s=JKS+Industry

## COMPANY NEWS ##
Market Stream (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/stream
Latest news (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/JKS/news - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=JKS+Headlines

## STOCK ANALYSIS ##
Analyst Research (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/analyst-research
Guru Analysis (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/guru-analysis
Stock Report (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/stock-report
Competitors (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/competitors
Stock Consultant (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/stock-consultant
Stock Comparison (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/stock-comparison
Investopedia (investopedia.com): http://www.investopedia.com/markets/stocks/JKS/?wa=0
Research Reports (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/JKS/research
Basic Tech. Analysis (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=JKS+Basic+Tech.+Analysis
Barchart (barchart.com): http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/JKS
DTCC (dtcc.com): http://search2.dtcc.com/?q=JinkoSolar+Holdings+Co.%2C+Ltd.&x=10&y=8&sp_p=all&sp_f=ISO-8859-1
Spoke company information (spoke.com): http://www.spoke.com/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&q=JinkoSolar+Holdings+Co.%2C+Ltd.
Corporation WIKI (corporationwiki.com): http://www.corporationwiki.com/search/results?term=JinkoSolar+Holdings+Co.%2C+Ltd.&x=0&y=0

## FUNDAMENTALS ##
Call Transcripts (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/call-transcripts
Annual Report (companyspotlight.com): http://www.companyspotlight.com/library/companies/keyword/JKS
Income Statement (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/financials?query=income-statement
Revenue/EPS (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/revenue-eps
SEC Filings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/sec-filings
Latest filings (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/JKS/filings
Latest financials (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/JKS/financials
Short Interest (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/short-interest
Dividend History (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/dividend-history
RegSho (regsho.com): http://www.regsho.com/tools/symbol_stats.php?sym=JKS&search=search
OTC Short Report (otcshortreport.com): http://otcshortreport.com/index.php?index=JKS
Short Sales (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/JKS/short-sales
Key Statistics (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=JKS+Key+Statistics
Insider Roster (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ir?s=JKS+Insider+Roster
Income Statement (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=JKS
Balance Sheet (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=JKS
Cash Flow (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cf?s=JKS+Cash+Flow&annual

## HOLDINGS ##
Major holdings (cnbc.com): http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/JKS/tab/8.1
Insider transactions (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=JKS+Insider+Transactions
Insider transactions (secform4.com): http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/JKS.htm
Insider transactions (insidercrow.com): http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp?company=JKS
Ownership Summary (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/ownership-summary
Institutional Holdings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/institutional-holdings
Insiders (SEC Form 4) (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/JKS/insider-trades
Insider Disclosure (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/JKS/insider-transactions

## SOCIAL MEDIA AND OTHER VARIOUS SOURCES ##
PST (pennystocktweets.com): http://www.pennystocktweets.com/stocks/profile/JKS
Market Watch (marketwatch.com): http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/JKS
Bloomberg (bloomberg.com): http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JKS:US
Morningstar (morningstar.com): http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/s?t=JKS
Bussinessweek (businessweek.com): http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot_article.asp?ticker=JKS



$JKS DD Notes ~ http://www.ddnotesmaker.com/JKS
a11k

[realfast95]

WTO rules against U.S. import tariffs on China steel, solar panels

[realfast95]

JinkoSolar has fully cooperated with the relevant authorities throughout the investigation and will continue to do so in the hope that international trade and fair competition will eventually prevail. While we respect the DOC's decision, we strongly disagree with it. With a balanced and geographically diverse customer base, the tariffs are unlikely to have a significant impact on our entire business. We will continue to actively serve our customers in the US while we seek out other growth opportunities."

[realfast95]

Goldman Sachs analyst Frank He commented on reports the US is imposing preliminary countervailing duties of up to 35.21% on imports of panels made by Suntech Power and five other companies. The news creates uncertainties on pricing and shipments.

Related stocks include Canadian Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) and JinkoSolar (NYSE: JKS). ReneSola (NYSE: SOL), JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO), Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE), and Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL).

"While it is still too early to quantify the impact from the preliminary decision, we think shipments and margins for Chinese module manufacturers are likely to face pressure in the near-term: (1) it will inevitably lower the incentive for Chinese suppliers to sell modules to the US," said He, "it is possible that retroactive charges may also be imposed on Chinese module suppliers before the final ruling is determined, thus further lowering potential shipments in 2Q."

"We estimate US shipments accounted for approximately 20%/20% of Jinko and Canadian Solar total module shipments in 1Q14.(2) Although Chinese module makers may source cells in China instead of Taiwan to save some costs, this would not fully offset the tariffs imposed, thus impacting module companies' dollar margins in the US. Our sensitivity analysis shows a US$1 cents/watt reduction in module dollar margin would lead to 17%/7% 2014 net income declines for Jinko and Canadian Solar (3) Moreover, we believe a potential shipment slowdown in the US market might bring about inventory destocking, thus potentially increasing pricing competition in non-US regions, as we estimate the US accounted for approximately 10% of China's module production in 2013. (4) On the other hand, we think Chinese suppliers may use overseas manufacturing facilities to avoid tariff charges in the US market. Canadian Solar has a module plant in Ontario, which may help to facilitate shipments to the US," he added.

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Canadian Solar click here. For more ratings news on Canadian Solar click here.

Shares of Canadian Solar closed at $25.09 yesterday.

[realfast95]

Roth Capital is commenting on the U.S. Commerce Department's preliminary decision on countervailing duties against Chinese modules today.

Analyst Philip SHen noted that CVD tariffs of 26.9 percent were higher than expected. The analyst offered the following conclusion, “We see upside risk to module ASPs to 80+c/W vs. ~72c/W today. We spoke with manufacturers, installers, and an expert on international trade at Greenberg Traurig. While the general consensus downstream is that US demand should not be materially hampered, our checks indicate that a number of upstream suppliers appear to be in a wait-and-see mode on shipments until the AD decision comes out in July. As a result, we believe limited supply, combined with robust demand from residential/commercial installers could drive module ASPs to 80+c/W in the near term. We maintain our 6GW 2014 US forecast but see potential downside risk, which could be driven by a decrease in price sensitive utility scale demand. While we believe solar stocks yesterday had sold off due to overall macro and in anticipation of the CVD determination, this trade case will likely remain a NT overhang on stocks until we get more clarity from the impending AD decision (expected to be released on 7/25).”

Winners of the decision are U.S. module manufacturers like First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR) and SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWR).

Chinese manufacturers “are negatively impacted given the uncertainty around how to address the US market.” Those names include Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL), Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE), SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY), JinkoSolar Holding Co ADS (NYSE: JKS), ReneSola (NYSE: SOL), and JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (Nasdaq: JASO).

Shen also noted that “for downstream players, such as SolarCity (Nasdaq: SCTY) and Real Goods Solar (Nasdaq: RGSE), this is an incremental negative as it will likely compress RV and margins, respectively.”

[realfast95]

Morgan Stanley: US Raises Tariff On China Solar; Implications

http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2014/06/04/morgan-stanley-us-raises-tariff-on-china-solar-implications/

By Shuli Ren

The U.S. Department of Commerce has reached a preliminary decision to impose countervailing duties on imports of solar cells and modules from China. The duty ranges from 19-35%. Trina Solar (TSL) will receive the 19% floor, while Suntech (STPFQ) faces 35%. All other companies in China are assigned a 27% tariff.

China responded angrily today, saying it is “strongly dissatisfied” with the U.S. decision and the move is “an abuse of trade remedies” and will “inevitably lead to the escalation of trade disputes between China and the U.S..” Shares of GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (3800-HKG) fell 6.5% in Hong Kong.

U.S.’s decision has surprised the market. “Many were expecting a lower number (perhaps closer to the 15% level) and others were holding out for settlement similar to the minimum pricing / maximum volume deal negotiated between China and the EU,” noted Morgan Stanley analysts Timothy Radcliff and Stephen C Byrd in a research note published today.

Despite the negative headlines, companies like SunEdison (SUNE) that focus on the upstream development business will see limited impact. Here is Morgan Stanley:


Companies like SunEdison that are generating $1.50-2.00 in retained value are shielded from the impact given higher value capture than upstream development or EPC businesses. SunEdison and other developers can also source products from non Chinese companies with lower all-in pricing to further mitigate the economic headwind.

As for U.S. solar names, while it is good news for SunPower (SPWR), First Solar (FSLR) won’t benefit much. Morgan Stanley again:


SunPower will be the primary beneficiary of the decision, given its presence in the US distributed generation market where most Chinese companies supply product. Although First Solar theoretically benefits, we believe that the impact will be small given limited presence of Chinese companies in the US utility scale market.

Gordon Johnson at Axiom Capital Research shrugs this news off. He believes this decision is only a “slight incremental negative” for Chinese solar stocks and a “slight positive” for U.S. solar stocks like First Solar and SunPower. Johnson also reminded us that this is just a “preliminary” ruling. The Commerce Department’s final ruling is on August 18th and an EU-like compromise is still possible.

[realfast95]

buy the bad news ruling

[realfast95]

SolarWorld's winning streak in its trade dispute with the Chinese continued Tuesday when the U.S. Department of Commerce assigned new duties on Chinese solar panels as high as 35.21 percent.

The department preliminarily ruled the Chinese government is subsidizing certain crystalline silicon photovoltaic products at a rate ranging from 18.56 percent to 35.21 percent. That's significantly higher than in Solar World's first case, when U.S. trade officials ruled in Solar World's favor but assigned anti-subsidy-related duties in the range of 2 and 4.79 percent.

"Today is a strong win for the U.S. solar industry," said Mukesh Dulani, president of SolarWorld Industries America Inc., based in Hillsboro. "We look forward to the end of illegal Chinese government intervention in the U.S. solar market, and we applaud Commerce for its work that supports fair trade."

As the bitter dispute winds through the federal trade bureaucracy, relations between the U.S. and China continue to deteriorate. Last month, a federal grand jury indicted five members of the Chinese military accusing them of cyber-espionage. The suspects allegedly hacked into Solar World's Hillsboro computers and stole the company's financial data, technical secrets, even a document laying out its strategy in the ongoing trade dispute.

The commerce department noted the Chinese government "failed to respond completely to certain questions."

Since May 14, commerce has initiated one other investigation of allegedly improper Chinese subsidies and has ruled against the Chinese in two other ongoing trade disputes unrelated to solar panels.

The so-called "countervailing duties" preliminarily approved Tuesday are intended to neutralize the advantages offered by government subsidies. They are typically imposed after an investigation determines a foreign country's export subsidies are damaging domestic producers.

Tuesday's decision was preliminary. It has yet to rule on allegations that Chinese manufacturers, backed by the Chinese government, dumped their product in the American market. Before the duties become permanent, the International Trade Commission must also find a causal link between the subsidized imports and material injury to the U.S. industry.

SolarWorld, the German owned solar panel maker with its American headquarters and manufacturing base in Hillsboro, launched the trade case with a handful of other domestic manufacturers nearly four years ago. It won the first round. But Chinese manufacturers evaded the resulting duties by farming out a piece of the solar panel manufacturing process to Taiwan companies.

SolarWorld launched the second case in hopes of closing the loophole.


http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2014/06/solarworld_wins_another_round.html

[squashjohn]

Self serving short pr!?k who preys seems to have media swing.. It's uncanny how suddenly, every time a chinese solar stock breaks out & then he's re-appearing with his BS & there's coincidentally some media story abt anti-dumping investigation etc at same time.. Uncanny

[realfast95]

this also came out today. The ruling is set for June 2nd and an announcement Tuesday.


House Dems Urge Obama To End Solar Trade Dispute With China
http://www.law360.com/internationaltrade/articles/542576/house-dems-urge-obama-to-end-solar-trade-dispute-with-china

House Dems Urge Obama To End Solar Trade Dispute With China

Share us on: Twitter Facebook LinkedIn By Kira Lerner 0 Comments
Law360, New York (May 29, 2014, 1:03 PM ET) -- Twenty-three House Democrats are urging President Barack Obama to help settle the long-running trade dispute with China over solar goods in order to protect American jobs in the renewable energy sector, according to a letter filed Wednesday.

The group of U.S. representatives said that support from the Obama administration is needed in order to lift trade restrictions and come to a long-term settlement to end anti-dumping investigations, including the recent probe launched by the U.S. Department of Commerce in response to a complaint filed by SolarWorld... Less

[realfast95]

Yet Axiom Capital’s Gordon Johnson writes in a note today that he may have previously been too optimistic about a coming resurgence in demand in the sector, and now sees risk to industry fundamentals in both the second and third quarters of 2014, pushing out upside for Chinese solar names until the end of the year
=========

ha, when has Gordon ever been optimistic about solar. What a joke.He once predicted FSLR was going to zero, on CNBC

[realfast95]

this afternoon was short covering imo.

Axiom with another hit piece, right when JKS took off around 12:36pm using his honey on Barrons

http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2014/05/29/renesolar-drops-on-q1-miss-axiom-skeptical-on-solar-demand-recovery/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

ReneSolar Drops On Q1 Miss; Axiom Skeptical On Solar Demand Recovery

By Teresa Rivas

ReneSolar (SOL) recouped some earlier losses, but was still solidly in the red by midday Thursday, after its first-quarter top- and bottom-line results missed analysts’ expectations.

The company reported a loss of 14 cents a share, six cents worse than the 8-cent per-share loss the Street was expecting. Revenues climbed 46% year-over-year, to $415 million, but that was also below the consensus $425.7 million.

Solar module shipments climbed to 521.1 megawatts, up from 505.3 megawatts in the fourth quarter, while solar wafer and module shipments dropped to 710.1 megawatts, from 784.1 in the previous quarter.

Still, ReneSolar’s miss didn’t seem to be hurting peers too much, with LDK Solar (LDKSY) and Trina Solar (TSL) making gains.

Yet Axiom Capital’s Gordon Johnson writes in a note today that he may have previously been too optimistic about a coming resurgence in demand in the sector, and now sees risk to industry fundamentals in both the second and third quarters of 2014, pushing out upside for Chinese solar names until the end of the year. He also notes that polysilicon price quotes are “worryingly” below listed prices, to the point that he sees continued downward pressure on prices, “and thus broader value chain pricing, as likely.”

Given this, he maintained his “negative near-term bias” toward the group, and advises building short positions in Trina , Yingli Green Energy (YGE),and Meyer Burger Technology (MBTN) , but maintained a positive bias toward JA Solar (JASO), given “their shift from selling cells to selling modules, as well as their favorable positioning in Japan, progress downstream, & solid balance sheet.”

More detail from the note:

In short, we along with Consensus expect a 2H14 recovery in Chinese demand, similar to that seen at the end of 2013. However, based on the comments above from our on-the-ground expert on the interworking’s of the Chinese government, 2H14 upside appears back-end loaded to C4Q14 vs. our/Street expectations that a recovery would emerge in C3Q14. As such, given our view that, in general, C2Q14 earnings will disappoint, exacerbated by our view that both: (1.) value China pricing will continue to weaken through C2Q14 and into C3Q14, & (2.) given a solar investor-base focused on near-term trends, should both C2Q14 & C3Q14 trends prove underwhelming, we see significant downside to 2H14 earnings vs. current Consensus estimates. Stated differently, even assuming China does 14GW of solar installations in 2014 (an assumption that appears increasingly unlikely), we see Consensus Trina Solar (TSL; SELL) 2H14 EPS estimates as overstated by $0.34/shr, or 136% (we are modeling 2H14 EPS for TSL at $0.25/shr vs. Consensus $0.59/shr). Thus, even though we see significant earnings revisions ahead, should China fall short of 14GW in solar installations, we see even more risk as likely. Caveat emptor.

[squashjohn]

Prob is that the powers that be on Wall St have turned the market into a casino of late. The momentum stocks have been whipsawed around & without rhyme or reason. JKS is definitely a stock for the future but Predicting it wud jump from 23 to 29 on an earnings report that didn't meet is anybody's guess..

[JamesK101]

Two very strong days. I did not see the $3.00 S/P just coming.

[realfast95]

seekingalpha: JinkoSolar: Great Quarter With Market-Beating Gross Margins
May. 28, 2014 6:43 AM ET | About: JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS), Includes: FSLR, SPWR Subscribers to SA PRO had an early look at this article. Learn more about PRO »

Disclosure: I am long JKS, FSLR. (More...)
Summary

JinkoSolar delivered another quarter of strong results.
The earnings shortfall is primarily due to Chinese RMB appreciation that was against secular trends - it is unlikely that this will recur in the near term.
JinkoSolar's Gross Margins now exceed that of market leader First Solar and the company deserves a valuation upgrade to reflect the lower risk.

JinkoSolar (JKS) (see thesis here) announced Q1 2014 earnings on Tuesday. The results were at or above expectations in all key metrics with the exception of net income which came in lower than expected due to unforeseen currency exchange losses stemming from depreciation of Chinese currency (RMB) against the US dollar.

RMB weakened significantly from 6.04 RMB per dollar at the beginning of the quarter to 6.21 RMB per dollar at the end of the quarter - a surprise weakening of 2.8%. This is a rather significant deviation from USD/RMB secular trends and caught the management by surprise. Management currently expects the RMB to stay at the current level or resume the secular trend. Excluding the currency setback, the company outperformed investor expectation on every meaningful metric.

Here are the key highlights of the company's earnings release:

- Total revenues of $323.9 M represent an increase of 73.1% from Q1 2013

- Total solar shipments of 581.2 MW are up 71.6% from 338.6 MW in Q1 2013

- Module ASP of $0.64 is slightly improved from $0.63 in Q4

- The company delivered a GM of 24.0% compared with 24.7% in Q4 2013

- Operating Income was $32.7 million compared with $43.3M in Q4 2013

- Electricity revenues generated from solar projects came in at $7.8M - an increase of 62.3% from Q4 2013

- The Company completed 213 MW worth of solar projects and expects to complete another 400MW+ in 2014

While the Gross Margins seem to have gone down slightly from the Q4 level, in actuality that is not true. To evade US tariffs, JinkoSolar developed an operating model where it sells solar wafers to Taiwan and buys solar cells from Taiwan - this causes unnecessary inefficiencies in the company's production line. The in-house GM, excluding this maneuver, is an industry leading 26%!

The company's current GM exceeds the 24.9% Gross Margin of industry leader First Solar (FSLR) (see thesis). First Solar, the only company in the same cost ballpark as JinkoSolar, is somewhat handicapped by its low utilization (only 82% at the end of q1). While the currency dynamics helped the company somewhat in getting to the industry-beating GMs, JinkoSolar's achievement on gross margin is highly remarkable. SunPower (SPWR) (see thesis) is the only other solar company with gross margins in excess of 20%. JinkoSolar continues to pull ahead of the industry and in particular its Chinese counterparts.

The yearly guidance continues to be impressive 2.3 to 2.5 GW and we expect the Company to outperform this guidance by a substantial margin. JinkoSolar's balance sheet continues to improve significantly and puts the company in a strong position to survive the next industry downturn.

Here Are Some Other Aspects We Like About JinkoSolar:

- The Company is on track to grow at or above the high end of management guidance for the next quarter and 2014

- Module costs at $0.47 per watt, are an improvement from $0.48 from last quarter and are likely the lowest in the industry. For the quarter we expected the company's costs to go up due to increasing polysilicon costs but the weakening RMB overcame the negative effects of the increasing polysilicon prices.

- The electricity revenues generated net profitability of $5M in the quarter. This rapidly growing business is building to be a massive growth driver for the company.

- JinkoSolar's US market is growing rapidly. The company shipped about 100MW of modules in the quarter to the US market - this approximately equals the total amount of product it shipped to the US for the full-year 2013!

- JinkoSolar has been gaining market share rapidly in South Africa (>40%) and Chile (approximately 30%)

- The company now has a 400 MW of DG pipeline in China which is a very good sign of things to come in the China DG market. Utility project pipeline in China is now around 700MW.

- The company reiterated that China market will be at 12-14 GW this year. This is now a consistent message from multiple Chinese companies and is likely to be a relief for investors. This could be an indication of reduced Chinese market turbulence.

- Unlike some US companies that are planning to do Yieldcos with subprime commercial and residential assets, we believe JinkoSolar's projects are more suited for Yieldcos. To the extent one trusts the Chinese government to honor its long-term commitments, JinkoSolar's projects are winners and any Yieldcos that JinkoSolar floats are likely to perform well.

What We Do Not Like About JinkoSolar:

- USD-denominated debt can be problematic if the RMB depreciates further against the US dollar. We find this unlikely but something to watch for.

- While the company continues to whittle down the debt load, the balance sheet is still weak

- Business and project climate in heavily subsidized markets can change at the whim of local, regional, county politics

JinkoSolar's manufacturing efficiency, project growth, increasing ASPs, and the impact of its energy business are poorly understood by the market. JinkoSolar is in a strong competitive position and is now operating at profitability numbers similar to those of top US companies. We believe the market will start valuing the company commensurate with its risk. The manufacturing business by itself is worth about twice the company's current valuation. The electricity revenues are now being generated at an accelerated rate and in a few quarters this segment of the company will be a major value driver.

The company share price is undervalued significantly and we expect a doubling of the share price within a year.

[realfast95]

gaween

[realfast95]

Roth Capital affirms buy rating pt $40.

Roth Capital affirms its Buy rating and $40 price target on JinkoSolar Holding (NYSE: JKS) following Q1 results, outlook.

Analyst Philip Shen said, “JKS’s strong fundamental Q1 performance was held back by FX hedges. Weak Q2 guidance results in a slightly more H2-weighted 2014. The project outlook was encouraging as JKS expects to connect 400MW of projects to the grid during 2014 vs. prior of 300MW. All-in, JKS remains one of our top solar manufacturer picks as the company continues to demonstrate cost leadership and a differentiated project strategy this cycle.”

Looking ahead, Shen affirms FY14 module revs of $1.5 billion and shipments at the midpoint of JinkoSolar's $2.3- to $2.5-GW outlook. “This results in our 2014 revenue forecast of $1.6bn vs. consensus of $1.6bn and prior ROTHe of $1.6bn. We boosted GMs to 24.4% vs. consensus of 22.4% and prior ROTHe of 22.8% to reflect JKS’s improved module cost structure. For conservatism, we touched up opex slightly, which consumes most of the benefit from the GM improvement resulting in our EPADS forecast of $2.98 vs. consensus of $3.44 and prior ROTHe of $2.96,” the analyst said

[realfast95]

Credit Suisse - outperform target $45
Strong Operational Performance Offset by FX;
Continued Progress on Cost/Watt
¦
Bottom line:
JinkoSolar reported 1Q14 non - GAAP EPS of $0.05 (or $0.58
adjusted for FX and changes in fair values) vs CS at $0.34 and consensus at $0.40. Price and cost improvements led gross margin to 24%, better than our estimate of 21.7%. The quarter highlights JinkoSolar’s strong execution, continued cost leadership, progress diversifying into downstream development albeit marred by a one time charge due to RMB depreciation.
JinkoSolar remains our top pick of China solar manufacturers due to its low cost and progress in project development. We are revising our 2014/2015/2016 EPS from $4/$6.39/$6.49 to $3.38/$6.42/$8.47 due to the 1Q14 FX and forward contract losses totaling 53c, higher margins and module shipments, offset by lower project sales in preparation for the previously announced possible IPO of the project business.



Positives
1) Margin strength: In house GM increased 230bps q/q to 26.6%; total GM decli
ned 70bps q/q to 24.7% because of the higher mix of shipments to the US with higher
cost Taiwan cells.

2) Non Si cost declined another 2c/W to 37c/W. The company is ahead of plan to
reaching 35 - 36c/W by the end of 2014.

3) Project development: JinkoSolar has
interconnected more projects (252MW) in
China than any other in our coverage. Management reiterated 400MW of project
development in 2014 including 2Q14 completions of 140MW and 2Q14 projects
under construction of 200 - 250MW.

Neutral
1)Shipments in line: 1Q1 4 shipments were in line with previous guidance, as pre-
announced. 2Q14 module shipment guidance of 570 - 600MW was below our
estimate of 640MW. The company reiterated 2014 module shipment guidance of
2.3 - 2.5GW, in addition to 400MW of project development.

Negatives
1) FX and future contracts losses: The unusual depreciation of the RMB in 1Q14 led
to an exchange loss of $22.1m (66c/share) including a loss in the fair value
change of forward contracts of $18.4m.
2) Shipments to the US in 1Q14 exceeded 100MW (22
% of module shipments), well
above the run rate of 12 - 15% of shipments targeted for 2014. The pending US
decision on tariffs against China and Taiwan manufacturers is a risk for 2H14
shipments and pricing

[realfast95]

listened to the replay of the CC.
The Forward Contracts are forward. So they are re-calculated each Qtr. So if the Dollar falls to the RMB, the charge is reversed.

The target for keeping 400MW more (600mw total) is minimum and will be completed soon, early Q3 I believe.

No plans for a YieldCo this year unless it's December.
For a Yieldco on the HK exchange it would be mid-2015.

Looking for more investors to pay for the Downstream projects (kept).

Transcript

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2239693-jinkosolar-holdings-jks-ceo-kangping-chen-on-q1-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript

[realfast95]

grabbed 1k in pre-market average down as they say...

[realfast95]

I don't know what "Change in fair value of forward contracts" means.
Other than that, they beat. Regular exchange rate loss was $3m compared to $1m in Q4.

It was Change in fair value of forward contracts that was the difference. Looking at Credit Suisse estimates JKS beat on Revenue, Gross profit and net income before the extra stuff.

[JamesK101]

Probably later on yes, but for now this will sting. Sentiment on the street was that JKS will demolish the guidance, so expectations were very high. Margin and sales were good, they got killed on the exchange rates.

Exchange rate loss is the difference between the massive beat everyone expected and results we got.

Company recorded an exchange loss of RMB137.4 million (US$22.1 million) in the first quarter of 2014.

[realfast95]

Pps should get better as they beat on revenue.

[JamesK101]

Well that went south in a hurry. Miss by $0.20 on EPS. Lost a ton of money on the currency rate movement. Terrible.

[realfast95]

JKS 39,110 shares traded before earnings, up .93 feels like a leak to me.

[realfast95]

one of the negatives floating around was that JKS prices were high. So that may very well translate to higher margins. Since they already confirmed shipments.

Every country that even thought of making solar panels, is putting on tariffs. India is a joke, proposing tariffs that themselves would make solar panels twice the price.

[JamesK101]

Tuesday will be interesting.

With TSL's margin improving by a large %, it will be interesting to see how JKS's numbers come in.

CSIQ's numbers were lower due to factory fire and some tax deductions.

JKS should easily beat the consensus number. If margin goes up another 1-2% in Q1, then it is an easy beat. Positive results from JKS and positive guidance would move the stock to back over $30.00 mark, or perhaps past the ATH of $37.XX set in January.

So should be an interesting week.

[squashjohn]

U gotta love the way they hold her down all day.. & leave it till last hr b4 they let her go..

[realfast95]

India tariff threats. Hope the new PM coming into office next week, will cancel them.

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/chinese-producers-offered-indian-price-agreement_100015182/#axzz32YMOKu5l

[realfast95]

added back some JKS late Thursday. Paid for it with some SUNE.

[realfast95]

this coming Monday 26th is a holiday

[squashjohn]

Is there a holiday in US coming?

[realfast95]

spwr has two up gaps. Yesterday contained a lot of short covering. Then there is the weekend selloff, that starts Thursday. I am only selling today. Give me .20 more of SUNE and I might even trim that too.

[squashjohn]

Few weeks ago - when sentiment on momo's was obviously very negative - they pumped Scty & said call options for June were v bullish. Since then it's dropped from 55ish to 49. & SPWR had a 9:1 ratio of calls to puts & it's fallen from 34 to 31ish. Spwr has to be the sleeping giant here going forward a bit longer perhaps

[squashjohn]

There u go.. Always happens like that. When they hype up abt a stock u can buy it just b4 & it moves 2-3%.. Unfortunately I don't get fast money in Switz. Some BS documentaries always come at 5pm

[realfast95]

YGE was pumped on CNBC talking about huge call options purchased

Finally, Najarian pointed out the bullish call buying activity in Yingli Green Energy Holding (YGE_), specifically in the June $3.50 call options.

[squashjohn]

Technical 'bounce' to continue I meant..

[squashjohn]

Well they all moved as we thought - the MM's held em down the 1st 90mins yest alrho TSL shot from start. I thght TSL might fill back to 11 before it skyrocketed & then I missed run. YGE shor further in AH - any idea why? I can't find anything.. U reckon this 'technical' might continue due to TSL having such big surprise on eps?