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SPX_30 Breakout was to the down side.
JLS
I thank you for reading the Hurst Book and giving your
honest opinion.
Trend1,
I think you are seeing what you want to see, not what is.
In your Post# 112, the post that started this sequence of posts, you linearly projected the green line downward after a completed day of green on Friday, 09/25. In fact, you used almost a whole day’s worth of data to derive that linear projection, and you had a lot of time to think about it as that post was made very late in the day. A simple extrapolation of that projected straight line would put it at an S&P 1041 early this morning, when the drop stopped and the reversal started. Today’s reversal started very soon after the open, and it happened nowhere near 1041. At the point of the stop and reversal there was only one or two more bars of data and that would not be enough additional data to justify changing your earlier projection which used 13 bars of Friday data.
Now you write after the fact: “The green ( projected) shows why the drop stopped.IMHO.”
Yet, as I stated earlier, the green line would have only shown about an hour’s worth of additional Monday data after Friday’s close (because the price decline stopped very quickly this morning). The chart you show in Post# 121 shows many bars of additional green data, well after the fact. Sure, if you project that data that arrived late, then you could come up with a flat projection, but that data did not exist at the time of the reversal.
With all respect for what you are trying to do, you are being fooled by offset data.
SPX_30 Updated again
JLS
Just a little HURST back ground on MA's
(1)GREEN MA = 50 Meaning that any cycle over 50 is getting shown. THAT IS LONG TERM TREND.
(2)RED MA = 10 Meaning that any cycle over 10 is getting shown. THAT IS SHORT TERM TRENDS added .....
(3)BLUE MA = 3 Meaning that any cycle over 3 ( Almost ever thing) is getting shown.
SPX_30 Updated again.
NOTE Time on chart.....
*****The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" by J.M. Hurst"-- I paid $19.99 on Amazon.com
And free shipping if order is over $25.00
And no cal state taxes....
SPX_30 UPDATED
Note blue now UP
.
JLS
Page 60-61
HURST says you can determine which way the breakout of the Triangle will happen.
Here is the SPX_30 MINUTE again.
Let's see if HURST and tell me which way the breakout will happen,
EDIT PS: The green ( projected) shows why the drop stopped.IMHO.
.
Trend1,
why do you write "as Hurst would expect"?
Maybe I'm too picky, but Hurst, through its use of offset moving averages, doesn't "expect" anything -- Hurst reacts many intervals after the fact.
Furthermore, in the chart you posted, the cycles have near zero autocorrelation.
I'll make a prediction. Actually, this is a prediction I made to myself many days ago: you will eventually throw Hurst out the chicken-bone-and-watermelon-rind window.
JLS
I was just trying to test the HURST method of predicting a move using the 30 minute chart.
And it worked to my satisfaction.
Now more HURST testing to follow.
What testing ?
Do not know yet.
Stay tuned.....
PS: These are not trades....But Hurst method testing...
Trend1,
I have no idea what the point is that you are trying to make and how it relates to my previous response.
My last response started with making a trifle of your little H&S pattern. (Sorry if that offended you -- that was not my intention.) Then I followed with a suggestion that you live up to your alias as a Trend trader (and not a pattern trader) and that you would likely make more money if you traded the bounces within the green channel.
And Hey! Trading the bounce within the green channel would have worked much better than a H&S trade because you wouldn't have to wait for confirmation and breakout of the H&S.
So, what is your strategy for taking profits on a H&S pattern? The strategy for pattern trades is usually to have your goal in mind beforehand (as determined by the measure rule) then sell when you hit the goal (or earlier based on stop-loss strategy). I know what the strategy is for a trend trade -- stay with the trend until it changes (which usually yields greater profits than pattern trades because profits are not taken prematurely simply because a predetermined goal was met).
When I get some time,
I will post page 33 of HURST BOOK
showing "The Nominality Principle"
indicating there are only 12 different
cycles ranging from 18 years down to 1.625 weeks.
JLS
So why did I start using HURST to project on the 30 Minute chart first ?
Simple....Hurst moves on 30 Minute charts happen very quick
vs using HURST 9 year cycles on the monthly charts.
PS: Hey ! And Hurst worked very nicely.....
Trend1, are you kidding?
A head with one candle? And a steep decline for a neckline, too.
Even if it works, the expected gain is about 1%, if you are lucky, about half the green channel width of 2%. And you can't start the position until after price breaks out.
Your alias is Trend, not Pattern, nor Head. If you believe the green channel trend, you'd be better off if you played that for a test of its bottom. At least then you would justify your alias of Trend.
H&S ........ pages 52_56
How to tell in advance if a chart pattern will "FAIL" page 59
The green lines say this H&S should not fail.IMHO
PS: Time will tell.....
Let's try projections of green on 30 minute chart.
After all that's why we have been studying HURST !
See chart in sticky....
Trend1,
since you asked the question ...
No, I don't "feel" Hurst is telling me much of anything. I think it's a coin toss. Did you have that same feeling on 09/23 or on 09/17? What about the three weeks at the end of June during which you set your daily Envelope system to pretty much ignore price swings?
What I find interesting about Hurst, though, is you used both a fast and a slow channel and set the parameters so that the boundaries of each will be tested often but not exceeded often. I think that is correct.
However, in your Envelope system, which should be in competition with this method, you set the 30-min Envelope so that its boundaries are tested often, but you set the daily Envelope so that it is seldom tested. That is not correct. And it would not make a good comparison of that system to the Hurst system. They should be set similarly for a valid comparison.
This brings me to wanting to make another point. Bollinger uses a moving average also, but it uses standard deviation (as opposed to a manual fit using percentages). In your Hurst implementation, and also in your Envelope system, you use manual fit and leave it there essentially forever. Using standard deviation makes Bollinger bands adaptive to price volatility (instead of fixed), which I find to be a superior idea. And Bollinger explains that the moving average length should be set to fit the underlying price changes so that the boundaries are frequently tested but infrequently exceeded. (So most people are in error when all they do is forever use 20, the default value, for a Bollinger moving average.)
My same argument applies to modern Keltner channels. Keltner channels were modernized by Raschke to use a percentage of ATR for bandwidth, instead of a fixed value to set the bandwidth, therefore making the bandwidth adaptive, which I again think is a superior approach. And again, the period of the Keltner channel should be adjusted in the same manner as I described for Bollinger bands.
JLS
Why I find HURST interesting !
The BOOK
CH 4 Page 68
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41929690
CH 4 Page 69
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41929712
CH 4 page 78
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41460424
CH 6 pages 112 113
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41599340
What is HURST telling me ?
30 Minute chart - Projecting the green line indicates a possible top in price 1 hour into trading.
SYSTEM 1
This is also near the 10 DMA on SYSTEM 1
SYSTEM 2
All charts are now in UP TREND
The 30 minute just went to UP TREND during first hour of trading Today.
SYSTEM 7 McLaren
Look for highs starting Oct 1, 2009
*****The following is the list of systems in use
and a brief description of each.
SYSTEM 1 10MA Above /below 10 MA
SYSTEM 2 Env Looking for breaks above/below envelopes
SYSTEM 3 HURST Looking at cycles for market turns.
SYSTEM 4 6 EMA and 6 EMA + 4 Offset
SYSTEM 5 RETRACE
SYSTEM 6 320 MA Are we in a bull or bear market ?
SYSTEM 7 McLaren
The interesting point here is that McLaren resets the 90 calendar days and starts counting again from the new July Low
McLaren is using HURST !!!
Yes. McLaren's 90 calendar days is shown in green in this daily day. 90 calendar days = 64 trading days = env(13,5,-6)
which is HURST basic envelope on the SPX_WEEKLY chart.
http://share.esignal.com/ContentRoot/HAL/SPX_DAILY_MCLAREN_925.png
Added this URL to IBOX
CROSSOVER ??? http://www.traderscrossover.com/cms/index.php?p=intraday
.
Changed notes on SPX_DAILY_HURST1 chart
"Next BOT Magnitude Unknown"
Posted by: Qone0 Date: Thursday, September 24, 2009 10:15:06 AM
In reply to: TREND1 who wrote msg# 41369 Post # of 41374
Trend, check this out. Scroll down about 1/4 page, watch the demonstrations. Very interesting
http://www.techsignal.com/
From the
FOUNDATION FOR THE STUDY OF CYCLES
TREND1,
I think your TREND2 system has more promise than Hurst, particularly if you want to be a more active trader.
I also think it (TREND2) needs a confirmation signal. In other words, the first dip below the bottom of the envelope is a setup for a short, and there needs to be another signal for a trigger. That other signal could come from something else. Or the signal could be multiple-choice. One choice for a trigger could be multiple violations of the envelope in the same direction and in quick succession -- in other words, you got the setup on Thursday and the trigger on Friday or, if you weren't paying attention, you got another trigger today.
While looking at your TREND2 system, I considered using another indicator as the setup and using the violation of the envelope as the trigger. I haven't come to any conclusions.
I've been studying the GMMA method. I'm looking at: A pinch, and cross, of the first (fast) group of moving averages is the setup; and a pinch of the second (slow) group followed by a spread of that group is the trigger. This would be for swing (multi-day) trades. Today is the first day in a long time that it looks like a sell signal may form -- the setup is in place, and the trigger is in formation stage. The trigger could complete tomorrow.
JLS
What you posted is true.
But I have not been able to estimate the Daily Envelope
as seen on the 30 minute chart........so far.
TREND1,
you wrote "Future is unknown. IMHO".
So give it up if that is what you truly believe.
It's not that simple. The future is never 100% known, but it is somewhat [AKA statistically] predictable. Sudden changes seldom happen -- that's useful information. Trends (even nonlinear trends) continue until they don't -- that's useful information. These are natural rules of momentum -- defined in Newton's Laws. Momentum makes the future somewhat predictable. That's not opinion, that's fact.
You can "eyeball" and look for cycles (a nonlinear element in trends), and you can draw linear trend lines; and you can combine all these (nonlinear and linear) inputs and try to predict the future. This is what you are doing now. And you can backtest these methods under different market conditions and come up with statistical performance for the past which should reach, by virtue of momentum, a little ways into the future. And if the odds are in your favor, then you trade it. It is really that simple. But most people do not have the ability to do nonlinear statistical analysis in their head, nor do they have the ability to program it into a computer. But guys like you and me do have that computer-analysis ability. I would have no difficulty (and I suspect you wouldn't either) taking many intervals of historic data and determining a polynomial best-fit equation for that data; and once I have the equation, I can predict the nonlinear future.
So you do a nonlinear [for instance, cubic spline, or other polynomial] interpolation of past data then extrapolate into the future. That's your statistical prediction, which can be backtested, and can be profitable, and can be applied.
*****For my info
(1) HURST1_SYSTEM
BGZ entry = 20.63 9/22/09 10:00 PT NOT DONE
(2) TREND1_SYSTEM
BGZ enrty = 20.59 9/23/09 6:30 PT
This trade not done
Why?
Because 10 DMA and 10 WMA are moving in UP TREND.
I've never read a book about it or got any of the materials I saw people post about on iHub.
I just read what's on iHub and that blog airedale88 had (that we can't post here, I guess -- unless we post all of it... and leave off the links -- i think the rules would allow that?)
I like Fibonacci simple moving averages, and horizonal levels of support and resistance, I post about that a lot. I honestly don't know if moving averages or horizontal levels are even a factor in the Hurst philosophy...
Generic
You wrote
Yes, as I recall, those two frequently debated what they considered to be the "true phasing" which was essentially an argument about whether a bottom was a "cycle straddle" or a beginning/end point -- my terminology may be off here...
basically, the way I understand Hurst is that you find something that is a definite market bottom over the long haul, then apply these cycles of time backwards -- to validate the bottom -- then project these same intervals out, to predict the future (hopefully)...
There is a lot of debate about what a true bottom date is back in the past, because it can have a big impact on future thinking, dates, intervals, etc.
I am no expert, just a passive observer.
**********************************************
Thanks again for the very useful info.
And you are an expert on HURST. IMHO
Yes, as I recall, those two frequenty debated what they considered to be the "true phasing" which was essentially an argument about whether a bottom was a "cycle straddle" or a beginning/end point -- my terminology may be off here...
basically, the way I understand Hurst is that you find something that is a definite market bottom over the long haul, then apply these cycles of time backwards -- to validate the bottom -- then project these same intervals out, to predict the future (hopefully)...
There is a lot of debate about what a true bottom date is back in the past, becuase it can have a big impact on future thinking, dates, intervals, etc.
I am no expert, just a passive observer.
There are people that track moon phases, planets, other stuff... everybody's looking for an edge and a reliable predictor.
All I know is that there's no perfect predictor in stock trading, but it's always a learning experience to figure out what these various systems are about and at least be aware of them in trading.
But I have not done this as long as you have, Larry, I know you have seen and backtested about every system that's aver come over the dam... you have a keen analytical mind, even thought I must personally admit I don't understand everything you post. But I do try.
Generic
I have read all the posts of Mr. Bob Chonski, "Airedale88", on that other place
And I thank you for the info.
Do you know why Bliss posts all those cycles on his chart ?
Bob stated that the 80 week cycle was about 78-80 weeks long
so BOB was willing to estimate.
And BOB also explained how the 80 week cycle some times
did not show up, but BOB used other charts (USA and other countries) to verify 80 week cycle.
As far as what IHUB does or doesn't do....
I am neutral and really do not care....
JLS
"The best place to enter a new long position is when a Major Cycle Low lines up with a Minor Cycle Low. To time the entry, we use a Valid Trend Line across highs. A Valid Trend Line break generates the actual signal. These trend lines have been specially designed to generate the best possible entries"
I have done enough of the above to doubt this too....
WHY?
In trying this many many VTL's happen to me.....
but right now ...still willing to try and try....
JLS
"How did we automate the process? By projecting the envelope into the future through a careful application of regression analysis, we were able to produce a completed envelope at the right edge.
I have my doubts about this "careful application of regression analysis,"
WHY ?
Future is unknown. IMHO
The Q&A Board might be a better place to clarify all this I have never fully understood these rules.
This might help this discussion, maybe #msg-41642323
See the replies.
LOL . . . good one JLS . . .
I have had a bunch of mine deleted as well.
It depends on how blatant the advertisement is.
I have made a large portion of my Blog FREE now ...
so it helps everyone .. not just subscribers.
BUT, it does seem odd that they would delete Ads for third-parties ...
especially when their intention is to help others
and not necessarily profit the poster.
Unless TREND1 runs the Hurst site .. LOL
Good Luck All !!!
JLS
I sent you an email about what IHUB deleted.
TREND1,
you wrote "Warning IHUB may delete your post.(Add for HURST)".
Question: why doesn't iHub delete posts made by people (usually iHub moderators) who reference (advertise) paid services on their own sites? Examples would be blasher and pokersam.
Regarding Hurst and that PDF ... excerpt from PDF ...
"However, since the averages are shifted to the left, there is no indicator value on the right edge of the chart. You have to imagine a projection of the bands to the right, as Hurst did in his book using hand-drawn lines.
How did we automate the process? By projecting the envelope into the future through a careful application of regression analysis, we were able to produce a completed envelope at the right edge.
The best place to enter a new long position is when a Major Cycle Low lines up with a Minor Cycle Low. To time the entry, we use a Valid Trend Line across highs. A Valid Trend Line break generates the actual signal. These trend lines have been specially designed to generate the best possible entries.
All of this work led to the creation of what we believe to be the first Hurst System implementation available to traders. Hurst Cycle Trader does not generate a lot of signals, but those it DOES generate tend to be very accurate."
SPX_DAILY_HURST1_SYSTEM
Just updating ....notice the miss...
Near high ...when estimate was for Low.
.
SPX_30_HURST1_SYSTEM with VTL BREAK
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The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing by Hurst has arrived.
I will try to study his method
"The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" by J.M. Hurst"-- I paid 19.99 on Amazon.com ... http://www.amazon.com/Profit-Magic-Stock-Transaction-Timing/dp/0934380627
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