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TLT struggle bus.... and it should be. Weekly and Monthly charts have no more room from technical perspective.
May start adding more Puts on each short term pop.
Bearish rising wedge forming on 5 min... should show direction in the next 15 mins imo
Daily middle BB just failed and SAR flipped bearish. This bubble is gonna pop hard
Nice Add!
Added 9/20 puts yesterday. Even if we don’t get a technical pullback by then, I think Fed will sink this ship when markets realizes rates aren’t getting cut like they want
Big dump eod. Could be double top here
Lol yea fitzy
Which one is lying?
SPY
TLT
Hell maybe S&P etf has binds in it ;)
Goodluck
X2
Way over extended here
TLT could allow in the market 100% OF THE TIME.
TRADABLE VOL VS TMF
ART HILL VIDEO ON BEARISH 4 MONTHS
http://schrts.co/rXRewXPS
Looks like stocks/bonds rose together through QE as yields fall. Now with stocks /bonds falling together through QT as yields rise.
sideways for a while
We need to start listening to Greenspan
Tweet re: TLT
Update from Friday: One TL break. Now would like to see Jan. high taken out. $TLT $TNX pic.twitter.com/WZZpX3vxjH
— Mark Arbeter, CMT (@MarkArbeter) March 27, 2017
Nice play!
If it stays in its channel then 112ish may hold it up. Right now odd ball trendline is supporting price. How did you get 104?
It’s Coming… UNPRECEDENTED US BOND DUMPING | Jim Willie
Posted on October 31, 2016 by Elijah Johnson
http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/dollar-collapse-federal-reserve-presidential-election-trump-clinton-unprecedented-us-bond-dumping-jim-willie/
The Set-Up For Gold & Silver: CARNAGE in the Bond Market Pre-Cursor to Market Crash? | Eric Sprott
Posted on October 28, 2016 by The Doc
http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/set-up-for-gold-and-silver-prices-carnage-in-bond-market-market-crash-eric-sprott/
*Get ready for the next Big Short.* The Bond market will collapse. The Fed is preparing to raise rates.
Stopped out on those puts. Looking back a couple years to when it went threw the upper trendline. There it ripped higher, so cutting it off with this break up though the closing price only matters. Every one looking for yield....calls may still be good..oh well
Bumping top trendline here 142.6's. Good place to dump calls. Took a tiny put position...nothing large but if market goes blue sky bonds have to rise...don't they?
OUt half my calls today...rest are riding free. Been a whippy ride
Stopped out today on that ugly candle. Will get back in before end of week so as not to miss the turn up. Want to give it a few days to settle down.
Are you short via puts? Thinking about grabbing some
Uhuh... Bond King Gets Antsy as Junk Bonds, Which Lead Stocks, Spiral to Heck
by Wolf Richter • December 9, 2015
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/12/09/bond-king-gets-antsy-as-junk-bonds-which-lead-stocks-spiral-to-heck/
There's quite a divergence underway among banks with Non-US banks shorting bonds across the board:
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/BankParticipationReports/deanov15f
The fed has investors worried so natural they are moving to safer investment. I guess it would have risen either way?
Agreed.
Given the current uncertainty people are flocking to fixed incomes investments -- as weird as that sounds.
Lots of demand for fixed income these days.
http://blogs.wsj.com/cfo/2015/09/11/corporate-cash-piles-into-corporate-debt/
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/09/corp-treasurers-rush-to-issue-debt-before-rate-hike.html
Yeah i do understand how it normally works. But there is some disconnect. The fed has investors worried so natural they are moving to safer investment. I guess it would have risen either way?
TLT tends to rally on Fed rate hikes. Fed raised rates June 30th, 2004:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=TLT&a=05&b=25&c=2004&d=06&e=5&f=2004&g=d
When the Fed raises rates the yield curve tends to flatten, not go up.
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