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Recent interview with Jim Rickards. He explains why current inflation actually is transitory, and why the Fed's plans for aggressive tightening will be a major mistake that will likely end in recession.
For gold, he said a falling dollar will be needed to get the gold price moving higher (the dollar has been rising for most of 2021). He said that a weakening US economy could eventually prompt the US administration into a an active policy to lower the dollar.
First however, the Fed overreacts by tightening too aggressively, leading to recession -
>>> Don't fear a 20% stock market plunge: JPMorgan
Yahoo Finance
by Brian Sozzi
December 27, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dont-fear-a-20-stock-market-plunge-jp-morgan-180947467.html
Some reassuring words on record-setting markets into the New Year from JPMorgan strategists.
"In particular, outside of the Big 10 stocks in the U.S., equity drawdowns and multiple de-rating have been severe. Russell 3000 was down only -4% and Nasdaq Composite -7% from 12-month highs, however, the average drawdown for constituents in these indices was -28% and -38%, respectively. Some argue this price action is a harbinger of late-cycle dynamics or at least an intra-cycle 10-20% market correction. In our view, conditions for a large sell-off are not in place right now given already low investor positioning, record buybacks, limited systematic amplifiers, and positive January seasonals," said JPMorgan chief macro equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas in a new research Monday.
Lakos-Bujas doesn't appear to be alone in the bullishness.
The S&P 500 hit an intraday record early on in Monday's session as investors bid up stocks despite rising Omicron-related infections globally. Gains were fueled by upbeat holiday retail sales data out of Mastercard SpendingPulse. If the S&P 500 closes at a record, it will mark the 69th time this year the index has hit a record high. The S&P 500 has notched a record close on nearly 30% of trading days this year, according to Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, 26 out of 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average were in the green, paced by gains in Home Depot, Cisco, and Yahoo Finance Company of the Year Microsoft.
Traders also nibbled at high multiple tech stocks such as Nvidia, which held down the spot as the top trending ticker on the Yahoo Finance platform for most of the session.
With the momentum in the markets persisting despite numerous macroeconomic and health concerns, Lakos-Bujas says investors should stay in risk-on mode.
"We find the current setup very attractive for high beta stocks — emphasizing both sides of the barbell: (1) on the value/cyclical side, in particular, reopening stocks (such as travel, leisure, hospitality, experiences) and energy; (2) on the secular growth side various high beta segments (such as payments, e-commerce, gaming, cybersecurity, biotech) have already seen significant multiple de-rating (i.e., -30% to -70%), yet fundamentals for many of these themes remain intact with continued strong secular growth and large addressable market sizes. Historical analysis (30+ years) shows that the largest outperformance of high beta stocks tends to be in January (i.e., tax-loss harvesting, investor bottom fishing, etc.)," writes Lakos-Bujas.
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>>> 7 Reasons the Stock Market Could Crash in January
Motley Fool
by Sean Williams
12-24-21
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/7-reasons-the-stock-market-could-crash-in-january/ar-AAS8p8u
In less than a week, we'll officially be ringing in a new year. However, Wall Street might be sad to see 2021 come to a close. The benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has more than doubled up (+24%) its average annual total return of 11% (including dividends) over the past four decades, and it hasn't undergone a steeper correction than 5%. It's been a true running of the bulls.
But as we turn the page on 2021, it's quite possible Wall Street could lose its luster. Below are seven reasons the stock market could crash in January.
1. Omicron supply chain issues (domestic and abroad)
The most obvious obstacle for the S&P 500 is the ongoing spread of coronavirus variants, of which omicron is now the most predominant in the United States. The issue is that there's no unified global approach as to how best to curtail omicron. Whereas some countries are now mandating vaccines, others are imposing few restrictions, if any.
With a wide variance of mitigation measures being deployed, the single greatest risk to Wall Street is continued or brand-new supply chain issues. From tech and consumer goods to industrial companies, most sectors are at risk of operating shortfalls if global logistics continue to be tied into knots by the pandemic.
2. QE winding down
Another fairly obvious high-risk factor for Wall Street is the Federal Reserve going on the offensive against inflation. As a reminder, the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 6.8% in November, which marked a 39-year high for inflation.
Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the nation's central bank would expedite the winding down of its quantitative easing (QE) program. QE is the umbrella program responsible for buying long-term Treasury bonds (buying T-bonds pushes up their price and weighs down long-term yields) and mortgage-backed securities.
Reduced bond buying should equate to higher borrowing rates, which in turn can slow the growth potential of previously fast-paced stocks.
3. Margin calls
Wall Street should also be deeply concerned about rapidly rising levels of margin debt, which is the amount of money that's been borrowed by institutions or investors with interest to purchase or short-sell securities.
Over time, it's perfectly normal for the nominal amount of outstanding margin debt to climb. But since the March 2020 low, the amount of outstanding margin debt has come close to doubling, and now sits at nearly $919 billion, according to November data from the independent Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
There have only been three instances in the last 26 years where margin debt outstanding rose by at least 60% in a single year. It happened just months before the dot-com bubble burst, almost immediately ahead of the financial crisis, and in 2021. If stocks drift lower to begin the year, a margin-call wave could really accelerate things to the downside.
4. Sector rotation
Sometimes, the stock market dives for purely benign reasons. One such possibility is if we witness sector rotation in January. Sector rotation refers to investors moving money from one sector of the market to another.
On the surface, you'd think a broad-based index like the S&P 500 wouldn't be fazed by sector rotation. But it's no secret that growth stocks in the technology and healthcare sectors have been primarily leading this rally from the March 2020 bear market bottom. Now that we're well past the one-year mark since this bottom, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see investors locking in some profits on companies with valuation premiums and migrating some of their cash to safer/value investments or dividend plays.
If investors do begin to choose value and dividends over growth stocks, there's little question the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 will find itself under pressure.
5. Meme stock reversion
A fifth reason the stock market could crash in January is the potential for a dive in meme stocks, such as AMC Entertainment Holdings and GameStop.
Even though these are grossly overvalued companies that have become detached from their respectively poor operating performances, the Fed noted in its semiannual Financial Stability Report that near- and long-term risks exist with the way young and novice investors have been putting their money to work.
In particular, the report highlights that households invested in these social-media-driven stocks tend to have more-leveraged balance sheets. If common sense prevails and these bubble-like stocks begin to deflate, these leveraged investors may have no choice but to retreat, leading to increased market volatility.
6. Valuation
Even though valuation is rarely ever enough, by itself, to send the S&P 500 screaming lower, historic precedents do suggest Wall Street may be in trouble come January.
As of the closing bell on Dec. 21, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 39. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. Though the Shiller P/E multiple for the S&P 500 has risen a bit since the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s, the current Shiller P/E is more than double its 151-year average of 16.9.
What's far more worrisome is that the S&P 500 has declined at least 20% in each of the previous four instances when the Shiller P/E surpassed 30. Wall Street simply doesn't have a good track record of supporting extreme valuations for long periods of time.
7. History makes its presence felt
Lastly, investors can look to history as another reason to be concerned about the broader market.
Since 1960, there have been nine bear market declines (20% or more) for the S&P 500. Following each of the previous eight bear market bottoms (i.e., not including the coronavirus crash), the S&P 500 underwent either one or two double-digit percentage declines in the subsequent 36 months. We're now 21 months removed from the March 2020 bear market low and haven't come close to a double-digit correction in the broad-market index.
Keep in mind that if a stock market crash or correction does occur in January, it would represent a fantastic buying opportunity for long-term investors. Just be aware that crashes and corrections are the price of admission to one of the world's greatest wealth creators.
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>>> Diversify your portfolio the right way ?— here are 5 assets with little connection to the stock market’s wild swings
MoneyWise
by Clayton Jarvis
December 19, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/diversify-portfolio-way-5-assets-140000363.html
Diversify your portfolio the right way ?— here are 5 assets with little connection to the stock market’s wild swings
If your idea of a diversified portfolio is one that only needs growth and value stocks, it’s a good thing you’re reading this.
With prominent investors like Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham and Charlie Munger expecting a historic correction to hit the stock market, it’s an opportune time to take a long, thoughtful look at your portfolio.
Specifically, you need to make sure it holds the kinds of assets that can help offset any potential losses associated with your stock market exposure.
Let’s look at five assets that can help grow your portfolio, even in the midst of market chaos. We’ll start with three traditional asset classes and then dig into two overlooked examples that show just how interesting — and profitable — alternative investments can be.
1. Bonds
When inflation is making short work of fixed-income returns, bonds can seem even less attractive than usual.
But elevated inflation won’t be around forever, and if the stock market truly is in for a reckoning, the guaranteed income associated with bonds, modest as it is, may be easier to stomach than a historic decline in share values.
In addition to the lower risk, investors also opt for bonds at times of economic uncertainty because decreases in consumer spending can lead to weakening profits and lower share prices.
The bond market is vast, so you should be able to find products that meet your needs as an investor.
U.S. savings bonds, mortgage-backed securities and emerging market bonds are a few examples. And getting exposure is now as easy as purchasing established bond ETFs such as the iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF, SPDR Long Term Corporate Bond ETF, and VanEck Investment Grade Floating Rate ETF.
2. Real estate
Real estate is detached from the stock market to such an extent that it provides one of the best hedges against falling share prices.
There hasn’t been a period in recent American history where millions of people weren’t willing to pay for shelter, either by renting or buying properties of their own.
Demand for housing may fluctuate from neighborhood to neighborhood, but its overall ceaselessness should continue to push prices and rent higher, no matter what’s happening on Wall Street.
Purchasing an investment property — a condo, a detached home, a triplex — is the ideal for most investors. Others are happy to keep updating their own residence with an eye toward a future sale.
You can also purchase shares in a real estate investment trust, or REIT, which distributes rental income to shareholders. Names like Realty Income, Digital Realty Trust, and Public Storage should provide a good starting point for investors who'd like to investigate the space.
3. Commodities
Commodities can help shield your portfolio from a declining stock market, but they come with their own unique risks.
When investing in commodities, you’re buying the raw materials used to produce consumer goods and reselling them at (hopefully) a higher price. Cotton, coffee, metals, cattle and petroleum products all qualify as commodities.
Commodity prices are a reflection of supply and demand dynamics in individual markets, so their performance isn’t tied to the stock market. Commodities tend to have a low to negative correlation to both stocks and bonds.
That said, commodities investing is inherently volatile. Unfavorable weather could ruin an investment in chickpeas; new regulations could kill your investment in coal. But if everything falls into place, the returns can be great.
These days, a practical way to invest in commodities is through well-established, broad-based commodity ETFs, such as the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund.
If you want to invest in a specific commodity, there are ETFs for that too. For instance, gold bugs have long loved the SPDR Gold Shares ETF for easy access to the market.
Meanwhile, gold mining companies like Barrick Gold and Newmont should also do well if the price of the yellow metal goes up.
4. Fine art
Like commodities, art values depend on supply and demand; it’s just that supply, when it comes to art, means a one-of-a-kind display of genius — something people regularly pay millions for.
In addition to being uncorrelated with the stock market, fine art has the ability to kick off healthy returns.
Between 1995 and 2020, contemporary art has outperformed the S&P 500 by 174% — that’s nearly three times the returns — according to the Citi Global Art Market chart.
Fine art used to be an investment for wealthy aficionados with access to the capital and insight required to make smart purchases.
But new platforms are helping everyday investors get into the fine art market by selling shares in modern masterpieces that could one day be sold for solid gains.
“Those artists tend to appreciate at single-digit to low-double-digit rates, but they're very good stores of value,” says Scott Lyn, CEO of art investing platform Masterworks. “It's very unlikely that you lose money investing in one of those paintings.”
5. Sports cards
In the same investable, collectible vein as fine art lie sports cards, some of which can be worth a fortune.
In October, a rare Michael Jordan Upper Deck card was auctioned off for $2.7 million. Earlier this year, a Tom Brady rookie card was sold for $2.25 million.
Social media and a whole lot of pandemic-related free time spent digging through old collections have helped trigger a new wave of interest in sports cards.
They’re like a meme stock alternative — they don’t always pay off, but when they do, look out.
You can play the sports card game in many ways:
Buy individual cards you think will maintain their value.
Buy boxes of cards and go hunting for one-of-a-kind items that can sell for ridiculous amounts.
Pool your money with other investors to purchase high value cards and resell them at some point in the future.
Find a broker who, for a fee, will help you buy, sell and trade sports cards like stocks.
Just be careful.
The bottom fell out of the sports card market in the mid-90s — too many companies, too many cards. With all the money the space is attracting today, expect more companies to try and get a piece of it.
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>>> As U.S. inflation hits a 39-year high, pros share 7 things to do with your money to help protect yourself from high inflation
Dec. 15, 2021
MarketWatch
By Alisa Wolfson
https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/as-u-s-inflation-hits-a-39-year-high-pros-share-7-things-to-do-with-your-money-to-help-protect-yourself-from-high-inflation-01639577364?siteid=yhoof2
As consumer prices post their biggest yearly gain since 1982, here’s investment advice on TIPS, I bonds, stocks, crypto and more.
U.S. inflation hit a 39-year high in November, according to government data, with consumer prices rising 6.8% in November, as compared to the same month in 2020. This is the fastest rise in consumer prices since 1982, and November was the sixth consecutive month that inflation was over 5%. These changes, no doubt, have many Americans worried about their money — and more specifically, what they can do with their money to help protect against inflation.
“For those that keep their savings in a traditional savings account, it’s unlikely the interest rate they are earning will outpace inflation, and what can happen is inflation can eat into your purchasing power of money as a result,” says Leanna Devinney, certified financial planner and vice president and branch leader of Fidelity Investments. So while you still need an emergency fund (you’ll want at least three months worth of income in there) in savings, investing is going to be key to helping you weather inflation better, pros say. Here’s their advice on where to put your money.
Stocks and diversification are key, says Snigdha Kumar, head of product operations at investment app Digit
Investors should continue to be invested in stocks because they generally hold up better during times of inflation, explains Kumar, who adds that “diversification is our north star.” Suze Orman shared a similar sentiment about stocks recently, noting that: “Bonds and cash struggle to keep pace with inflation; only stocks have a track record of earning more than inflation.”
Consider value stocks in the consumer staples space, says Kumar. “Value stocks that are in the consumer staples space, like food and energy, do well during inflation because demand for staples is inelastic and that gives these companies higher pricing power as they are able to increase their prices with inflation better than other industries,” Kumar says.
Think about TIPS and high-yield bonds, says Devinney
“Consider different types of inflation-resistant fixed income investments such as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and high-yield bonds,” says Devinney. Kumar also recommends TIPS. “Since diversification is our north star, one could also acquire some lower risk securities that are inflation linked,” Kumar says. “TIPS securities carry a similar risk as other fixed income investments, but they add an adjusted principal amount if inflation increases.”
Look into I bonds
I bonds are inflation-protected U.S. savings bonds, and I bonds purchased before the end of April offer a 7.12% yield. But, there’s a catch: An individual can only purchase up to $10,000 of I bonds per year electronically or $5,000 in paper. Here’s a guide on I bonds.
Consider crypto, says Michael Wilkerson, executive vice chairman of Helios Fairfax Partners
Wilkerson says Bitcoin and Ethereum provide the most liquid ways to invest in crypto. “This may yet prove to be the most efficient inflation hedge in this environment. Regulatory interference will remain the main risk for the crypto utopia,” says Wilkerson. That said, read this guide on how much of your portfolio to put in crypto.
Consider alternative investments like gold and real estate, says Kumar. In the theme of diversification, Kumar says she always suggests having 5% to 10% of a portfolio in alternatives or hedges, like gold and real estate, during inflation. “The rationale for buying gold is that its asset value isn’t damaged by the eroding value of cash so it’s a good anti-inflationary hedge,” Kumar says. “Real-estate platforms, especially retail real estate, do well during inflation because landlords and property owners see the value of their property increase,” she says, noting that: “We’re already seeing that in the real estate market in the United States right now.” For his part, Warren Buffett has also spoken of real estate as something to consider to hedge against inflation.
Reduce exposure to certain types of investments, says Devinney
“It may also help to reduce exposure to investments that are more sensitive to inflation such as certain Treasury bonds. Treasury bonds typically have lower yields than the equivalent duration investment grade bonds and that is why treasury bonds aren’t as inflation resistant,” says Devinney. You may also want to steer clear or some CDs, savings accounts and more.
And Kumar doesn’t recommend investing too much in growth stocks during times of inflation because those companies expect to earn a bulk of their cash flow in the future. As inflation increases, those future cash flows are worth less and therefore they lose stock value.
And finally, you should do an honest review of your expenses. Kelly LaVigne, vice president of consumer insights at Allianz Life, says most people think they can combat rising costs simply by cutting back on some aspect of their current expenses, but it’s impossible to do this in a logical way without a clear understanding of what you’re currently spending. “You might think you can make an impact by spending less on a few grocery items or limiting daily trips to the coffee shop, but those might be relatively useless endeavors if you are paying significantly more in other places where inflation is taking a bigger chunk of your budget,” says LaVigne.
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>>> The Best And Worst Sectors For Rising Interest Rates
Mar 31, 2021
Seeking Alpha
by Kevin Means
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416978-best-worst-sectors-etfs-for-rising-interest-rates
Summary
Current monetary and fiscal policies risk an overheated and inflationary economy.
Increased interest rates already begun are a likely result.
Using an objective statistical model, I calibrate the current sensitivity of sectors and industries to rising interest rates.
Sector recommendations are to buy financials (XLF) and energy (XLE) and avoid/sell technology (XLK).
Interest rates are notoriously difficult to forecast. However, if you believe that rates will continue to rise (as I do), it may be helpful to know which market sectors are likely to be most affected, for good or ill.
Four-Factor Risk Model
At Sapient Investments, we use a proprietary risk model to measure the risks of a stock, bond, fund, or portfolio. It is described more fully in an article on our website entitled “How Much Risk is in My Portfolio?” The four risk factors are:
MKT – stock market risk (S&P 500 Index)
LTB – interest rate risk (10-Year Treasury Index)
DLR – currency risk (U.S. Dollar Index)
OIL – commodity risk (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Index)
These four major risk factors are the most important in explaining the behavior of most investments. Although the focus of today’s article is LTB risk, to get an accurate measure, it is important to control for the other risk effects at the same time. That is why our risk model uses multiple regression analysis in which we regress monthly returns against monthly changes in all four risk factors simultaneously. That allows us to disentangle the various risk effects from each other and present a more accurate picture of the true risk factor sensitivities.
Also important is the fact that our risk model uses exponentially-weighted regressions, which weight more recent monthly returns more heavily than those further back in time. Specifically, our regressions use the most recent 36 months, with half of the weight on the most recent 12 months.
10 Major Sectors
In the graph below, we show the LTB betas of the 10 major economic sectors into which U.S. stocks are generally grouped.
Source: Graph created by author using data from FactSet
Perhaps the most important thing to remember when thinking about the effects of interest rate changes is that bond prices and returns move in the opposite direction of interest rate changes. When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. So, assets that have a positive LTB beta will also go down when rates go up.
In the graphs above and below, we use color as a reminder about this relationship. Assets with the most negative sensitivity to LTB changes are in green—they will go up in price if interest rates rise, the opposite reaction from bonds. Assets with the most positive sensitivity to LTB changes are in orange—they will go down in price if interest rates rise, just like bonds.
When trying to understand the effects of LTB risk on various sectors, it is helpful to understand why interest rates might be changing. The fact that our risk model emphasizes what has been happening recently is particularly helpful. For example, energy stocks have not historically had a strong relationship with the 10-Year Treasury Bond, either positive or negative. However, recently, energy stocks have been exhibiting a decidedly more negative relationship to bonds than has been typical in the past because of the extremely depressed levels from which energy stocks have been rebounding as hopes for an economic recovery have been emerging. Rising interest rates are often associated with a strengthening economy, which is good for all economically-sensitive stocks. Energy stocks have been behaving with very heightened sensitivity to the outlook for a post-pandemic recovery.
Financial stocks have historically had a slightly negative relationship to the 10-Year Treasury Bond, but they have recently exhibited a much stronger inverse relationship, probably because interest rates have been so low and the yield curve so flat that it has been difficult for financial institutions, particularly banks, to earn normal profits using their traditional model of “borrowing short and lending long.” Rising long-term bond yields help financial stocks to earn a positive spread on their assets.
Technology has not traditionally been known for a high level of sensitivity to changes in interest rates. However, interest rates are so low that mathematically speaking, even relatively small changes in interest rates can have a dramatic effect on the current value of high growth stocks.
All financial assets are valued by discounting future cash flows. This relationship is easier to calculate for bonds because all of their cash flows are known in advance—the coupon interest payments and the return of principal are contractual. Bonds with longer maturities have more of their cash flows in the distant future. A bond’s “duration” measures its sensitivity to changes in interest rates, which is exactly what LTB beta measures. The difference is that duration can be calculated exactly ahead of time, but stock LTB beta is estimated using time-series regression analysis. But the underlying rationale is the same. High growth stocks with little or no present earnings are expected to have the bulk of their cash flows occur in the distant future, making their present values much more sensitive to changes in interest rates. They are, in effect, “high duration stocks.”
Industries Most Affected
The graph below shows some of the industries that have unusually extreme LTB betas, either positive or negative.
Source: Graph created by author using data from FactSet
Those on the left side could be described as economic recovery industries. They typically suffered poor returns in 2020 and are only recently seeing their stock prices recover. They are also most often considered value industries as opposed to growth industries.
The industries on the right side are a varied lot. Some are clearly associated with the “winners” in 2020, especially software, medical equipment, and solar. These are all growth industries in which a large portion of the expected cash flows are many years down the road. Consequently, they have been hurt by rising rates through the mechanism of the increased discount rate.
Other industries on the right side are sensitive to changes in interest rates through the economics of how their businesses operate. For example, the demand for real estate and home construction is strongly influenced by mortgage interest rates—when rates move up, demand falls. Similarly, gold miners are affected by the price of gold, which in turn is affected by interest rates because gold does not provide any interest or dividend income, and when interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of owning gold increases, making it a less attractive store of value.
Will Rates Keep Rising?
The graph below depicts the history of the 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield since 1979. It had been on a downtrend since 1981 when it peaked at 15.8%. Last summer, the yield hit an all-time low of .5%. Since then, the yield has increased over 1% to 1.7%.
Source: Graph created by author using data from FactSet
Two observations can be made from this graph. One is that the short-term trend has clearly been up. The other is that if there is a tendency for long-term reversion to the mean, it will be an upward gravitational pull.
What has caused the 10-Year Treasury Yield to move up? Certainly not Fed tightening. The Fed has maintained its unprecedentedly easy money approach, holding short-term rates close to zero and buying huge amounts of longer-term bonds to try to push rates lower all along the yield curve. It appears that the “bond market vigilantes” are back. If bond market participants fear that inflation will devalue their investments, they will naturally sell. They may not wait for the Fed to tighten to stave off inflation or trust that it will, and in fact, given the mindset of the current Fed, the central bank appears much more willing to tolerate much more inflation than would have been the case even a few years ago, in the interest of fostering “full employment.”
With the change in control of both houses of Congress as well as the executive branch, another potentially inflationary element has been added to the policy mix—aggressively expansionary fiscal policy. Blowout deficit spending now looks like it will be the new normal. Historically, when governments have overspent, rather than raise taxes, the easier route has been to weaken the value of the currency through inflation, making repayment of government borrowing easier. Add a propensity towards anti-business, pro-union, and environmental tax and regulatory changes, which are likely to dampen productivity and economic growth, and the mix looks a lot like the policies that led to the “stagflation” conditions of the 1970s.
Inflation has not shown up in the CPI yet, but the bond market is clearly worried about it, and rightly so. The present trends seem unlikely to go away any time soon, and if anything, they seem likely to intensify.
Prepare your portfolio for higher interest rates.
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>>> Wholesale inflation jumps record 9.6% over past 12 months
Yahoo Finance
MARTIN CRUTSINGER
December 14, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wholesale-inflation-jumps-record-9-134429918.html
WASHINGTON (AP) — Prices at the wholesale level surged by a record 9.6% in November from a year earlier, an indication of on-going inflation pressures.
The Labor Department said Tuesday that its producer price index, which measures inflation before it reaches consumers, rose 0.8% in November after a 0.6% monthly gain in October. It was the highest monthly reading in four months.
Food prices, which had fallen 0.3% in October, jumped 1.2% in November. Energy prices rose 2.6% after a 5.3% percent rise October.
The 12-month increase in wholesale inflation set a new record, surpassing the old records for 12-month increases of 8.6% set in both September and October. The records on wholesale prices go back to 2010.
Core inflation at the wholesale level, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 0.8% in November with core prices were up 9.5% over the past 12 months.
The increase in wholesale prices was widespread, led by a 1.2% increase in the cost of goods and a 0.7% rise in the price of services.
In the goods category, the price of iron and steel scrap rose 10.7% while the price for gasoline, jet fuel and industrial chemicals all moved higher. In the food category, the price of fresh fruits and vegetables rose while the price of chickens fell.
The surge in wholesale prices followed news Friday that consumer prices shot up 6.8% for the 12 months ending in November, the biggest increase in 39 years, as the price of energy, food and many other items shot up.
The Federal Reserve, holding its last meeting of the year this week, is expected to announce Wednesday that it will accelerate the pace at which it reduces its monthly bond purchases, preparing the way to begin raising its key benchmark interest rate, possibly by mid-2022 as it seeks to demonstrate its resolve to bring inflation under control.
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>>> Twenty Central Banks Hold Meetings as Inflation Forces Split
Bloomberg
By Enda Curran, Jana Randow, Rich Miller, and Philip Aldrick
December 11, 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-11/twenty-central-banks-hold-meetings-as-inflation-forces-split?srnd=premium
Fed is expected to taper support while others are still easing
Bank of England’s hiking hints undermined by omicron
The world’s top central banks are diverging, as some turn to tackling surging inflation while others keep stoking demand, a split that looks set to widen in 2022.
The differences will be on full display this week with the final decisions for 2021 due at the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, which are together responsible for monetary policy in almost half of the world economy. They won’t be alone -- about 16 counterparts also meet this week, including those in Switzerland, Norway, Mexico and Russia.
Central Bank Decisions This Week
The latest wild-card is the omicron coronavirus variant -- how severe its impact proves to be on growth and inflation will be a crucial consideration for officials into the new year. The worry is that a strain more resistant to vaccines would force governments to impose new restrictions on business and keep consumers at home.
A shift in policy always carries risks. Tightening and then discovering the inflation threat was temporary all along -- as many central bankers have said all along -- could derail recoveries; waiting and finding that price pressures are persistent could require more aggressive tightening than otherwise.
“The likelihood of policy slip-ups is now much much greater,” said Freya Beamish, head of macro research at TS Lombard. The inflation outlook is confused by “the presence of an endemic virus,” she said.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is tipped to confirm on Wednesday that he’ll deliver a quicker withdrawal of stimulus than planned just a month ago. He may even hint at being open to raising interest rates sooner than expected in 2022 if inflation persists near its highest in four decades.
The outlook for his central banking peers is less clear, marking an end of two years in which they largely synchronized their efforts to tackle the coronavirus recession, only to find inflation surging back stronger than anticipated in many key economies.
Stimulus at Fed, ECB, BOJ has vastly increased their balance sheets
Although she’s likely to end emergency stimulus, ECB President Christine Lagarde will stick to an expansionary policy stance on Thursday as she insists soaring prices are due to factors that won’t endure, such as energy costs, supply snags and statistical quirks. Lagarde has indicated she doesn’t expect to raise rates in 2023.
Subdued price pressures in Japan are also allowing BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to hold onto a doggedly dovish stance, even as the government rolls out another round of record spending. Japanese policy makers convene Friday.
Perhaps most strikingly, Governor Andrew Bailey’s Bank of England is now cooling on the need to hike rates, having not long ago flirted with a shift. In contrast, Norway’s central bank may hike again.
Elsewhere, while the People’s Bank of China has started to ease policy as a property-market downturn threatens to hamper growth, other emerging economies such as Brazil and Russia are aggressively tightening.
Russia may do so again this week, as may Mexico, Chile, Colombia and Hungary. Still, Turkey is set to cut again at the urging of President Recip Tayyip Erdogan.
“We are set for increasing monetary policy divergence,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis SA.
What Bloomberg Economics Says...
“Rising global inflation, higher commodity prices and weaker currencies likely synchronized rate movements in emerging markets this year. Tighter U.S. monetary policy will probably provide another global force for more rate hikes next year.”
-- Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist
Even if the path of rates differs, a wide-scale slowing of bond-buying programs will reduce support for economies. BofA Global Research strategists predict liquidity will peak in the first quarter of 2022, and that the Fed, ECB and BOE are on course to shrink their balance sheets to $18 trillion by the end of next year from above $20 trillion at the start of the year.
The implications for divisions in global policy could also include a rising dollar against a weakening euro and yuan, potentially stoking currency tensions as China’s exports get another lift. A stronger greenback would also lure money away from emerging markets, undermining their own fragile recoveries.
“The increase in the Fed fund rates next year and a stronger U.S. dollar will be a testing time for emerging markets,” said Jerome Jean Haegeli, chief economist at Swiss Re AG in Zurich, and previously of the International Monetary Fund. “The fault lines opened up by Covid-19 are looking more persistent.”
At the Fed, a widely-anticipated decision to wind up its bond-buying more quickly could leave it in a position to raise rates as early as March, should it deem that necessary to stem surging inflation.
U.S. consumer prices rose the fastest in almost four decades, government data showed Friday.
Fed watchers expect the central bank’s new economic forecasts to show for the first time that a majority of policy makers project at least one rate increase in 2022.
ECB’s Stimulus Exit Path Emerges With Inflation at Record Pace
Inflation Near 40-Year High Shocks Americans, Spooks Washington
Fed Seen on Track to Quicken Taper After Latest Inflation Print
The Bank of England Needs One Million Missing Workers to Return
In the U.K., traders convinced of a liftoff this year pared bets after the emergence of omicron, and they’ll likely be proved right if comments from the BOE’s most hawkish official serve as a guide. Michael Saunders recently highlighted the benefits of waiting before raising rates from 0.1% to assess the economic impact of the variant.
The U.K.’s tight labor market is nevertheless driving up wage growth, and officials are concerned that high inflation, expected to hit a decade high of 5% next year, is seeping into expectations. Unlike the Fed, the BOE’s mandate keeps it focused on prices.
At the ECB, Lagarde is also sticking to the narrative that record-high inflation will eventually subside -- even though officials acknowledge that persistent supply bottlenecks mean it may take longer than initially thought, and some policy makers are getting uncomfortable just standing by.
With the European economy close to pre-crisis levels, the institution is set to confirm that bond-buying under its signature 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.1 trillion) pandemic program will end in March as planned. Regular asset purchases will continue. Rate hikes, economists surveyed by Bloomberg agree, won’t be on the agenda until 2023.
Ultimately, the severity of omicron will play a huge role in the monetary policy story next year. Two weeks after the variant’s discovery, there are plenty of unknowns.
“If the variant dampens demand more than it exacerbates supply-chain disruptions, it could prove disinflationary,” said economist Sian Fenner of Oxford Economics. “But the reverse is equally true.”
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>>> It’s not just Elon Musk: Corporate insiders sell stocks at historic levels as market soars
Wall Street Journal
Dec. 11, 2021
By Tripp Mickle , Theo Francis
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-not-just-elon-musk-corporate-insiders-sell-stocks-at-historic-levels-as-market-soars-11639091560
So far this year, 48 top executives have collected more than $200 million each from stock sales
Microsoft CEO Satya Narayana Nadella sold about half of his Microsoft shares in late November, yielding about $285 million.
Company founders and leaders are unloading their stock at historic levels, with some selling shares in their businesses for the first time in years, amid soaring market valuations and ahead of possible changes in U.S. and some state tax laws.
So far this year, 48 top executives have collected more than $200 million each from stock sales, nearly four times the average number of insiders from 2016 through 2020, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from the research firm InsiderScore.
The wave has included super sellers such as cosmetics billionaire Ronald Lauder and Google GOOGL, +0.25% co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, who have sold shares for the first time in four years or more as the economic recovery fueled strong growth in sales and profit. Other high-profile insiders—including the Walton family, heirs to the Walmart Inc. WMT, +1.83% fortune, and Mark Zuckerberg, chief executive of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. FB, -0.02% —have accelerated sales and are on track to break recent records for the number of shares they have sold.
Read: Elon Musk exercises more options, sells another $1 billion of Tesla stock
Across the S&P 500, insiders have sold a record $63.5 billion in shares through November, a 50% increase from all of 2020, driven both by stock-market gains and an increase in sales by some big holders. The technology sector has led with $41 billion in sales across the entire market, up by more than a third, with a smaller amount but an even bigger increase in financial services.
Read: CEO Satya Nadella sells about half of his Microsoft shares
“What you’re seeing is unprecedented” in recent years, said Daniel Taylor, an accounting professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School who studies trading by executives and directors. He said 2021 marks the most sales he can recall by insiders in a decade, resembling waves of sales during the twilight of the early 2000s dot-com boom.
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>>> Warren Buffett is holding these stocks for the huge free cash flow — with inflation at a 31-year high, you should too
MoneyWise
by Brian Pacampara, CFA
December 7, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-holding-stocks-huge-175400129.html
Warren Buffett is holding these stocks for the huge free cash flow — with inflation at a 31-year high, you should too
Wall Street pays a ton of attention to company earnings.
But reported earnings are often manipulated through aggressive or even fraudulent accounting methods.
That’s why risk-averse investors need to focus on companies that generate gobs of free cash flow.
Cold, hard cash is real, and can be used by shareholder-friendly management teams to:
Pay inflation-fighting dividends.
Repurchase shares.
Grow the business organically.
Investing legend and Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett is famous for his love of cash flow-producing businesses.
Let’s take a look at three stocks in Berkshire’s portfolio that boast double-digit free cash flow margins (free cash flow as a percentage of sales).
Chevron (CVX)
Leading off our list is oil and gas giant Chevron, which has generated $13.9 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months and consistently posts free cash flow margins in the ballpark of 10%.
The shares have been hot in recent months on the strong rebound in energy prices, but with inflation continuing to heat up, there might be plenty of room left to run.
Management’s recent initiatives to cut costs and improve efficiency are starting to take hold and should be able to fuel shareholder-friendly actions for the foreseeable future.
Just last week, Chevron announced that it would boost its buyback program to as much as $5 billion a year, about 60% higher than previous guidance.
The stock still offers an attractive dividend yield of 4.7%, which investors can pounce on using some extra cash.
Moody’s (MCO)
With whopping free cash flow margins above 30%, credit ratings leader Moody’s is next up on our list.
Moody’s shares held up incredibly well during the height of the pandemic and are up nearly 290% over the past five years, suggesting that it’s a recession-proof business worth betting on.
Specifically, the company’s well-entrenched leadership position in credit ratings, which leads to outsized cash flow and returns on capital, should continue to limit Moody’s long-term downside
Moody’s has generated about $2.4 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow. And over the first nine months of 2021, the company has returned $975 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.
Moody’s has a dividend yield of 0.6%.
Coca-Cola (KO)
Rounding out our list is beverage giant Coca-Cola, which has produced $8.1 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow and habitually delivers free cash flow margins above 20%.
The stock has had plenty of ups and downs in recent months, but patient investors should look to take advantage of the short-term uncertainty. Coca-Cola’s long-term investment case continues to be backed by an unrivaled brand presence, massive scale efficiencies, and still-attractive geographic growth tailwinds.
And the company is back to operating at pre-pandemic levels.
In the most recent quarter, Coca-Cola posted revenue of $10 billion, up 16% from the year-ago period, driven largely by a 6% increase in unit case volume.
Coca-Cola shares offer a dividend yield of 3.1%.
Generate income outside of the shaky stock market
Even if you don't like these specific stock picks, you should still look to implement Buffett's time-tested strategy of investing in real assets that produce cold, hard cash.
And you don't have to limit yourself to the stock market.
For instance, some popular investing services make it possible to lock in a passive income stream by investing in a wide variety of alternative assets — including fine art, commercial real estate, and even luxury vehicle finance.
You’ll gain diversified exposure to alternative asset classes that big-time investment moguls usually have access to, and you’ll receive regular payouts in the form of monthly or quarterly dividend distributions.
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>>> Bill Gates is using these dividend stocks to generate a giant inflation-fighting income stream ?— you might want to do the same
MoneyWise
by Clayton Jarvis
December 8, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-using-dividend-stocks-194300892.html
With elite investors like Michael Burry and Jeremy Grantham predicting a reckoning for today’s overheated stock market, it might be time to look at dividend stocks.
Dividend stocks are a way to diversify a portfolio that may be chasing growth a little too obsessively. They generate income in good times, bad times and, particularly important today, times of high inflation.
They also tend to outdo the S&P 500 over the long run.
One prominent portfolio that’s heavy on dividend stocks belongs to The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust. With the trust being used to pay for so many initiatives, income needs to keep flowing into it.
Dividend stocks help make this happen.
Here are three dividend stocks that occupy significant space in the foundation’s holdings. You may even be able to follow in its footsteps with some of your spare change.
Waste Management (WM)
Waste Management Inc, is an American waste management & environmental services company. It’s not the most glamorous of industries, but waste management is an essential one.
No matter what happens with the economy, municipalities have little choice but to pay companies to get rid of our mountains of garbage, even if those costs increase.
As one of the biggest players in the space, Waste Management remains in an entrenched position.
The shares have more than doubled over the past five years and are up about 42% year to date. Management is projecting 15% revenue growth this year.
Currently offering a yield of 1.4%, Waste Management’s dividend has increased 18 years in a row.
The company has paid out almost $1 billion in dividends over the last year, and its roughly $2.5 billion in free cash flow for 2021 means investors shouldn’t have to worry about receiving their checks.
Caterpillar (CAT)
As a company whose fortunes typically follow that of the larger economy — that’ll happen when your equipment is a fixture on building sites the world over — Caterpillar is in an intriguing post-pandemic position.
The company’s revenues are feeling the effects of a paralyzed global supply chain, but still-historically low interest rates and President Joe Biden’s recently passed $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill mean there could be an awful lot of building going on in the U.S. in the near future.
Caterpillar’s mining and energy businesses also provide exposure to commodities, which tend to do well during times of high inflation.
The company’s stock has ridden higher raw material and petroleum prices to an almost 15% increase this year.
After announcing an 8% increase in June, Caterpillar’s quarterly dividend is currently at $1.11 per share and offers a yield of 2.2%. The company has increased its annual dividend 27 years straight.
Walmart (WMT)
With grocery stores deemed essential businesses, Walmart was able to keep its more than 1,700 stores in the U.S. open throughout the pandemic.
Not only has the company increased both profits and market share since COVID coughed its way across the planet, but its reputation as a low-cost haven makes Walmart many consumers’ go-to retailer when prices are rising.
Walmart has steadily increased its dividends over the past 45 years. Its annual payout is currently $2.20 per share, translating into a dividend yield of 1.6%.
After trending slightly downward over the past month, Walmart currently trades at roughly $136 per share. If that's still too steep, you can get a smaller piece of the company using a popular app that lets you to buy fractions of shares with as much money as you are willing to spend.
Look beyond the stock market
Aerial side view head of cargo ship carrying container and running near international sea port for export.
At the end of the day, stocks are inherently volatile — even those that provide dividends. And not everyone feels comfortable holding assets that swing wildly every week.
If you want to invest in something that has little correlation with the ups and downs of the stock market, take a look at some unique alternative assets.
Traditionally, investing in fine art or commercial real estate or even marine finance have only been options for the ultra rich, like Gates.
But with the help of new platforms, these kinds of opportunities are now available to retail investors, too.
<<<
>>> Billionaire George Soros Loads Up on These 3 “Strong Buy” Stocks
TipRanks
November 29, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-george-soros-loads-3-144712924.html
Wall Street has known its share of legends, but few of them have made as big a splash as “the Man Who Broke the Bank of England.” That nickname belongs to George Soros who earned the tag after famously betting against the British Pound in 1992; following the Black Wednesday crash, the hedge fund manager pocketed $1 billion in a single day. This is the stuff that Wall Street legends are made of.
By then Soros was already incredibly successful and in the midst of steering his Quantum Fund to decades-long average annual returns of 30%.
Today, Soros remains the chair of Soros Fund Management and is thought to be worth over $8 billion, a figure which would have been far greater but for the billionaire’s extensive philanthropic work.
So, when Soros takes out new positions for his stock portfolio, it is only natural for investors to sit up and take notice. With this in mind, we decided to take a look at three stocks his fund has recently loaded up on. Soros is not the only one showing confidence in these names; according to the TipRanks database, Wall Street’s analysts rate all three as Strong Buys and see plenty of upside on the horizon too.
EQT Corporation (EQT)
We’ll start with the largest natural gas producer in the US. EQT is an $8 billion industry giant, operating in the gas-rich Appalachian states of Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. With 1 million acres of land holdings in the Marcellus and Utica shale deposits, and 19 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, the company is well-positioned to gain from the current regime of rising gas prices, even as the Biden Administration pushes an anti-fossil fuel strategy.
One clear sign of EQT’s strong position: the stock is up 65% year-to-date, even after some late-summer volatility. In the most recent quarterly report, for Q3, the company’s revenue came in at $1.79 billion, reversing the year-ago quarter’s $255 million revenue loss, while the EPS of 12 cents was up from a year-ago loss of 15 cents per share. Looking forward, management has boosted this year’s guidance on free cash flow upward by $200 million.
From Soros’ position, it’s clear that he sees profit potential in natural gas. His fund pulled the trigger on 534,475 shares, giving it a new position in EQT. At current prices these shares are now worth over $11.4 million.
Soros isn’t the only one giving this resource stock some love. Wall Street analyst Vincent Lovaglio, writing from Mizuho Securities, points out several strong points from 3Q21.
“Gas realizations were better than expected, low end of full year capex guidance is down slightly, full year operating cash flow guide is higher on the commodity rally and in line with our full-year forecast, and the company optimized firm-transport agreements expected to lower unit gathering while improving realizations.”
In addition, Lovaglio isn’t shy in setting forth his opinion that the company will start returning cash to shareholders, sooner rather than later, believing EQT is “positioned to announce a cash return framework early next year.”
In line with these comments, Lovaglio rates EQT stock a Buy and his $35 price target points toward 68% upside in the next 12 months. (To watch Lovaglio’s track record, click here)
Overall, the Strong Buy consensus rating on this stock is supported by 11 recent reviews, which include 9 Buys against just 2 Holds. The shares are selling for $21.35 and the $29.64 average price target suggests an upside of 42%. (See EQT stock analysis on TipRanks)
Fisker (FSR)
The next stock we’ll look at is Fisker, an electric vehicle (EV) maker based in LA, California. Fisker is preparing to jump full-on into the consumer automotive segment, and unveiled its Ocean fully electric SUV earlier this month at the 2021 Los Angeles Auto Show. The company has already been taking pre-orders on the vehicle; with the unveiling, Fisker is now putting its money where its mouth is. The Ocean, with – among other features – a solar-panel roof capable of generating battery charging power, is scheduled to start its regular production run in November of next year.
In recent weeks, Fisker has met some other important milestones for investors to consider. First, on November 2, the company announced an agreement with the European battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology to receive two separate battery supply options for the Ocean, with a total of 5 gigawatt-hours annual battery capacity over the years 2023 to 2025. And one day later, Fisker noted that its prototype Body Shop at the Austria Fisker Ocean assembly plant, is now fully operational and that production has begun on the Ocean’s prototype run, allowing the vehicle to enter the next phase of testing.
Constant progress toward a deliverable product is a clear positive marker for a pre-production auto maker, and Soros clearly agrees; he picked up 317,300 shares of Fisker, opening his position in the company with a holding now worth $6.26 million.
Giving Fisker an Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating, with a $32 target price indicating room for ~57% one-year upside, Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy is also clearly bullish, and he bases his conclusion on the recent unveil.
Backing his stance, Levy writes, “FSR’s unveil of the production version of the Ocean at the LA Auto Show last week reinforces our bull thesis on FSR – with EV uptake sharply inflecting and the market lacking sufficient model options, FSR offers a compelling value proposition – sleek product at a high-volume price point, and with a de-risked path to market.”
Going on, Levy lays out the key point: “Reaching start-of-production for Ocean next year, even if the vehicle isn’t profitable initially, may be enough to drive significant upside for the stock.” (To watch Levy’s track record click here)
Wall Street appears to be in broad agreement with Levy, as FSR shares maintain a Strong Buy rating from the analyst consensus. There have been 8 recent reviews, including 6 Buys and 2 Holds. Meanwhile, the stock’s $26 average implies 27% upside potential from the $20.44 trading price. (See FSR stock analysis on TipRanks)
SoFi Technologies (SOFI)
Last on our list is SoFi, short for Social Finance, a San Francisco-based personal finance company. The company uses social media modes to connect its members with loan funding sources. SoFi offers a full range of loan products, from student loans to home financing, and maintains a solid commitment to its ‘no fee’ policy; the only cost to borrowers is the interest on the loan. And with SoFi’s non-traditional underwriting approach, it is able to offer borrowers lower rates than are available with banks.
Founded 10 years ago, SoFi only entered the public trading markets this year. Like many firms in recent years, the company took advantage of the rising market environment to enter a SPAC transaction, merging with Social Capital Hedosophia V in the early summer and putting the SOFI ticker on the NASDAQ on June 1.
Earlier this month, SoFi published its 3Q21 financial data, showing strong growth, especially in membership numbers. The company recorded year-over-year member growth of 96%, reaching a total of 2.9 million. Of that growth, 377,000 new members were added in Q3, making the quarter the company’s second-best ever for member increase. For the quarter, adjusted net revenue came in at $277 million, beating the company’s previously published guidance high end of $255 million by 9%. Management is predicting further acceleration of revenue growth in Q4, and is guiding toward $272 million to $282 million in net revenue. Achieving this would bring 49% to 55% yoy revenue growth. For the full year, the company expects revenues in the range of $1.002 billion to $1.012 billion.
Also looking ahead, the company has applied for a national bank charter, a move that will take it into the traditional banking industry. The move would bring the lender under the auspices of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, a plus for account holders. SoFi management has indicated that its charter application is in line with regulatory expectations.
A finance company with sound underwriting and bright prospects, working in an environment flush with cash, is sure to attract investors – and Soros bought in heavily. He opened his position at 177,500 shares, valued at $3.22 million given current prices.
Wall Street, like Soros, sees plenty to appreciate here. Rosenblatt analyst Sean Horgan says, “We continue to be buyers on SOFI here." His Buy rating is backed by a $30 price target indicating his confidence in a one-year upside of 65%. (To watch Horgan’s track record, click here)
Looking at the company's latest earnings, the analyst highlights several positive developments: "1) Digital influencer partnerships led to 400mn impressions and 775k engagements with SOFI content, and SOFI's TikTok campaign drove more than 8bn views and more than 1mn uses of SOFI's branded hashtag #SoFiMoneyMoves; 2) 18% of member growth (up from 3% in 2Q) was driven by the successful launch of SOFI's new and enhanced referral programs, including 'Refer the App'; 3) 73% of cross buying was driven by money/invest members (85% including relay); 4) Galileo accounts totaled 88.9mn (80%y/y) vs. consensus of 85.1mn; 5) the lending segment adj. revenue hit a record of $215mn,which was driven by growth in SOFI's personal loan business originations (+167% y/y to$1.6bn); 6) total members grew 96% y/y to 2.9mn in 3Q21."
Once again, we’re looking at a Strong Buy stock, with the Buys outweighing the Holds by a 5 to 1 margin. The shares have a current trading price of $18.11 and an average price target of $26.33, indicative of a ~46% one-year upside. (See SOFI stock analysis on TipRanks)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
<<<
>>> Never Mind Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s Stock Sales. Look What Microsoft’s CEO Just Did.
Barron's
By Al Root
Nov. 30, 2021
https://www.barrons.com/articles/microsoft-ceo-stock-sale-tesla-elon-musk-51638284642
A lot has been made of Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s stock sales, but Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently sold a chunk of stock that is a much larger portion of his total holdings.
Nadella sold about half his stake in Microsoft (ticker: MSFT), according to recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The CEO unloaded 838,584 shares on Nov. 22 and 23, netting him about $285 million. He has about 831,000 Microsoft shares left, worth roughly $280 million.
“Satya sold approximately 840,000 shares of his holdings of Microsoft stock for personal financial planning and diversification reasons,” a Microsoft spokesperson told Barron’s in an emailed statement. “He is committed to the continued success of the company and his holdings significantly exceed the holding requirements set by the Microsoft Board of Directors.”
Nadella is required to hold stock worth 15 times his base salary. That amounts to about $38 million. Nadella’s salary is $2.5 million. That’s cash compensation.
Planning and diversification are two reasons. Still, investors are left to debate why he might choose to diversify now, or if state or federal capital-gains taxes changes weighed in Nadell’a decision.
Regardless of the details, the sale is significant. It represents a large portion of his total pay and holdings. Nadella’s total reported compensation over the past three years amounts to about $137 million, including more than $93 million worth of stock.
Microsoft doesn’t award stock options any longer. The company has shifted to performance stock awards that are earned when certain time or performance milestones are hit.
He has been CEO since early 2014. Microsoft stock has returned about 35% a year on average since then, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have returned about 16% and 14% a year on average, respectively, over the same span.
The Nadella sales take the CEO pay-and-taxation spotlight away from Musk for the moment. Musk started selling Tesla stock after asking Twitter (TWTR) followers if he should sell 10% of his holdings to accelerate paying taxes on unrealized capital gains. Twitter voted yes and the sales commenced.
Musk has sold about 8.6 million shares worth $9.2 billion in recent weeks. He appears to be about half way through the 10% sale his Twitter followers voted for. It’s hard to say exactly, however. Some sales have been stock received as Musk has exercised stock options, while other sales have been from his existing holdings.
Most of Musk’s pay comes in the form of management stock options. Musk, excluding his options, owns about 17% of Tesla stock. Nadella owns about 0.01% of Microsoft stock outstanding.
Microsoft shares aren’t doing much in response to the news. Shares were 1.4% lower in late trading Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Dow were down about 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively.
<<<
>>> Investor Ackman says U.S. facing 'classic bubble' fueled by Fed's easy money policy
Reuters
November 18, 2021
By Svea Herbst-Bayliss
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investor-ackman-says-u-facing-173150771.html
(Reuters) - Investor William Ackman, whose views are widely watched on Wall Street, said on Thursday that the U.S. central bank's ultra-easy monetary policy has created a "classic bubble" and that he thinks the Federal Reserve will need to tighten rates more quickly to fight inflation.
"We are in a classic bubble which has been driven by the Fed," Ackman, who runs hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, said at a conference sponsored by S&P Global Ratings.
Ackman was speaking days after the government announced that U.S. consumer prices in October surged 6.2% over the last 12 months, outpacing many economists' forecasts.
"Every indicator is flashing red," Ackman said, citing surging prices in real estate, the art market and the stock market.
He called inflation the biggest risk for his hedge fund this year and said he expects the central bank will have to raise rates soon, echoing warnings he made on Twitter several weeks ago.
"I think the Fed will be forced to tighten much more quickly," Ackman said, adding that he does not see much reason to keep interest rates at their current low levels, arguing that easy monetary policy was not bringing people back into the workforce.
He also said higher prices are being fueled by structural changes and that recent increases may not be transitory, as some policy makers, economists and many corporations have said.
ESG initiatives, including a switch to cleaner energy and demands for higher wages, are here to stay and are costly, Ackman said, noting they will fuel higher prices for some time.
Ackman said on Twitter last month that he had been invited to give a presentation to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to share his views on inflation and that he said policy makers should "taper immediately and begin raising rates as soon as possible."
He said again on Thursday that he has hedged his portfolio, fearing higher rates could negatively impact the hedge fund's long-only equity portfolio. Ackman's Pershing Square Holdings Fund has returned 26.1% since January after a 70.2% gain last year.
<<<
>>> Gladstone Land Corporation (LAND) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript
LAND earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2021.
Motley Fool
Gladstone Land Corporation (NASDAQ:LAND)
Q3 2021 Earnings Call
Nov 10, 2021, 8:30 a.m. ET
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2021/11/10/gladstone-land-corporation-land-q3-2021-earnings-c/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
Contents:
Prepared Remarks
Questions and Answers
Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to Gladstone Land Third Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions].
I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, David Gladstone, Chief Executive Officer and President. Thank you. You may begin.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Well, thank you for that nice introduction. This is David Gladstone, and welcome to the quarterly conference call for Gladstone Land. And again, thank you all for calling in today. We appreciate you take time out of your day to listen to our presentation. We're first going to start with Erich. Erich Hellmold is in the office today for Michael LiCalsi. Erich is our Deputy General Counsel, and he is also the -- one of the big guns in administration side of our business and that's the administrator for all the Gladstone funds. Erich, why don't you start?
Erich Hellmold -- Deputy General Counsel
Thanks, David, and good morning. Today's report may include forward-looking statements under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, including those regarding our future performance. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that are based upon our current plans, which we believe to be reasonable.
Many factors may cause our actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including all risk factors in our Forms 10-K and other documents we file with the SEC. Those can be found on our website, www.gladstoneland.com, specifically the Investor's page or on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Today we will discuss FFO, which is Funds From Operations. FFO is a non-GAAP accounting term defined as net income excluding the gains or losses from the sale of real estate and any impairment losses from property, plus depreciation and amortization of real estate assets. We will also discuss core FFO, which we generally define as FFO adjusted for certain non-recurring revenues and expenses, and adjusted FFO which further adjusts core FFO for certain non-cash items, such as converting GAAP rents to normalized cash rents. We believe these are better indications of our operating results and allow better comparability of our period-over-period performance.
Please take the opportunity to visit our website, www.gladstoneland.com, and sign up for our email notification service, so you can stay up to date on the Company. You can also find us on Facebook, keyword-The Gladstone Companies, and we have our own Twitter handle @GladstoneComps.
Today's call is an overview of our results, so we ask you to review our press release and Form 10-Q, both issued yesterday for more detailed information. Again, those can be found on the Investors page of our website.
Now, I'll turn the presentation back to David Gladstone.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
All right. Thank you, Erich. I always start with a brief recap of the current farmland holdings. We currently own about 108,000 acres on 160 farms and about 45,000 acre-feet of banked water. All those together total about $1.4 billion in assets that we own. Our farms are located in 14 different states, and more importantly in 28 different growing regions, and our farms continue to be 100% occupied and are leased to 82 different tenant farmers, all of whom are unrelated to us. And the tenants on these farms are growing over 60 different types of crops.
Given the number of different growing regions, tenants, types of crops, our farms -- on our farms, we think this is sufficient diversification to provide for safety and security of the cash flows coming from the rents. And we believe this diversification helps protect the dividends that we're paying to our preferred as well as our common shareholders. There are no guarantees in this world, anything can happen in this life. But right now, we're feeling pretty good about getting the money in from rents and paying it out as dividends.
We had another strong quarter from the acquisition standpoint and we continued to see a decent number of buying opportunities come our way. And in the fourth quarter, we've gotten off to a nice start. We still have a few farms that we're working on to close before the end of the year. Hopefully, we'll get them all done. It has been kind of a slow year in terms of the pandemic has kept people out of the office and that always slows things down.
We continue to be able to renew all the expiring leases without incurring any downtime on any of our farms and notable increase in these renewals reflects the positive trends in all the rental rates that we're currently seeing in many regions.
Overall operations on our farms remained strong and demand for products that are grown in most of our farms remains relatively strong. And these are products like berries and vegetables and nuts. And as anybody who goes to the grocery store these days, tell you, there are many of these types of food that continue to increase in price and that's good for our farmers and good for us long-term.
During the third quarter, the team acquired five farms, 5,000 acre-feet of banked water for total price of about $62 million. In addition, right after the quarter-end, we acquired two more farms, approximately 2,000 more acre-feet of banked water or total about $46 million. So we have new investments of about $108,000 -- $108 million from last time.
Overall, initial net cash yield to us on these are about 5.5%. In addition, all the leases on these farms contain certain provisions such as participation rents or annual escalations that should push that figure higher as we go forward in the future. As a reminder, this banked water is water that we own, but is stored in a local water district. We can use the water that's in these districts on the farmland located in Kern County that sub-basin where the water is, where we have several farms and we can sell it to a third-party, or we can use it on our farms.
Our plan is to hold the water to keep as a safeguard for our own assets in the region. Currently, we are not using any of it. We're using the water that we have from the wells that we have on the farms in the past. They say they have not used any of it, they kept buying a little bit. So when it came time to sell, they wanted to sell us the same insurance for water that we have in these wells. All of our farms currently have enough water, but we like the security of having extra water.
On the leasing front, since the beginning of the third quarter, we executed ten lease renewals on properties located in California, Colorado, Florida and Michigan.
Overall, these lease renewals are expected to result in an increase in annual net operating income of about $227,000 or about 8% over the prior leases that we had. Looking ahead, we only have three leases scheduled to expire in the next six months that make up less than 2% of our total annualized lease revenue. We are in discussion with the existing tenants on these farms, as well as some potential new tenants and we aren't expecting any downturn -- downtime on these farms.
Overall, we continue to expect the new leases on these farms to be relatively flat from where they are today. There are few other items I'd like to touch on before we move on. The first one is going -- the ongoing drought in the West, despite some recent record-breaking rainfall parts of California. Certainly in Oregon and Washington, they've gotten a good amount of water down on the farms, but they also have gotten many feet of snow in the mountains, and when that snow melts, it feeds all the farms in the valley. However, all our properties continued to be in a position where there is currently ample water to complete both the current crop and next year's crop. Where we have farms located in water districts, those districts have stored water or other supplemental sources that cover our farms for the short-term.
Almost all of the farms out West have well sites and most of them rely on groundwater as their main source of the irrigation. For these properties, we are seeing a typical seasonal dropping of the water table levels, and we haven't had any, of course, that have gone dry. And all of our farms currently have pumping capacity to cover their crop needs.
One thing you should know is that wet and dry weather cycles are the norm out West. Those of you here in the Midwest or in the South, this is something that you would know how to handle most likely, but it's very difficult in the West, especially California. Throughout any long-term investment, we know that we're going to have both drought periods and wet periods. So when we underwrite a potential investment out West, we look for properties with multiple sources of water, we build in drought scenarios in our projections, and we also take into account potential government regulations because sometimes they just come in and say we'd like you to pump 25% less water out of the ground. We've done that and we've done a good job keeping the government happy with our water.
We continue to expect a strong year in terms of participation rents. I think this will be the largest year we've ever had. You know, we recorded about $2.4 million in participation rents each of the past two years and we are expecting a sizable increase in that amount for 2021. No guarantees, but that's what we're projecting right now. And this is mainly due to having several more farms with participation rents this year. We recorded about $1.8 million of participation rents so far through the third quarter. People have begun to pay and give us good projection, so we're bringing in that money now.
Regarding the progress on our ESG policy, we continue to work on developing a formal policy related to disclosures that we continue to think are relevant and we will continue to update you on this as we get closer to finalizing these policies. One of our problems on ESG is just finding someone who can identify and say we've done it correctly. There is a lot of fighting on Europe over what constitutes some of the ESG policies.
Finally, I want to again briefly mention that Gladstone Acquisition, it's our SPAC that recently filed and reiterate the relationship to Gladstone Land. It has a little over $100 million in cash in it now. And as mentioned in previous calls, we sometimes come across farm owners who don't want to sell just their land, they want to sell both their farmland and their operations as a package deal.
As you know, a REIT like Gladstone Land is limited in the ability to own operating companies because operating income is generally not permitted in a Real Estate Investment Trust. So Gladstone Acquisition was created to potentially take advantage of such opportunities. We're looking at a couple now, we've not signed anything, and so, there has been no press releases on it, but stay tuned, you'll hear what we do there.
I'm going to stop at this point on operations. I'll turn it over to our Chief Financial Officer, Lewis Parrish, to talk to you more about the numbers that he published last night.
Lewis Parrish -- Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Treasurer
Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone.
I'll begin with our balance sheet. During the third quarter our total assets increased by about $60 million, due to new acquisitions which were financed with a mix of debt and equity proceeds. During the quarter, we secured about $31 million of new long-term borrowings at a weighted average rate of 2.75%, which is fixed for the next ten years.
On the equity side, since the beginning of the third quarter, we've raised about $86 million of net proceeds through sales of our common stock under the ATM Program, representing a net cost of capital of 2.35% with our recently increased dividend. And over the same time period, we've also raised about $22 million of net proceeds from sales of the Series C Preferred Stock.
Moving on to our operating results, first, I'll note that for the third quarter we had net income of about $1.5 million and a net loss to common shareholders of $1.6 million or $0.052 per common share. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, adjusted FFO for the third quarter was approximately $5.3 million compared to $3.7 million in the second quarter, an increase of about 41%. AFFO per share was $0.166 in the third quarter versus $0.126 in the second quarter, an increase of 32%. Dividends declared per share were about $0.135 in each quarter. The primary driver behind the increase in AFFO was additional participation rent recorded. This was partially offset by incentive fee earned by advisor during the current quarter.
During the third quarter, we recorded about $1.8 million of participation rents versus only $19,000 in the previous quarter. Fixed base cash rents increased by about $1 million or 6% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, primarily driven by additional revenue earned from recent acquisitions.
On the expense side, excluding reimbursable expenses and certain non-recurring or non-cash expenses, our core operating expenses increased by about $1.1 million, which is driven by higher related party fees. The quarter-over-quarter increase in related party fees is reflective of a higher rate used to determine the base management fee rate, which became effective from July 1 and includes an incentive fee of $945,000 earned by our advisor during the current quarter versus none earned in the prior quarter.
Removing related party fees, our core operating expenses decreased by about $250,000. This decrease was primarily driven by lower property operating expenses, which was largely due to less water costs incurred in one of our properties in Colorado and reduced annual filing fees as well as a decrease in our general and administrative expenses due to the additional costs incurred in the prior quarter related to our annual shareholders meeting.
Regarding the additional water costs in Colorado, the impact on the current quarter's numbers was about $260,000 or $0.01 per share, down from about $350,000 in the prior quarter. We currently anticipate incurring an additional $100,000 to $150,000 during the fourth quarter for these water costs, but we do not currently anticipate continuing to incur these costs beyond 2021.
Moving on to net asset value, we had 37 farms revalued during the quarter, all via third-party appraisals except for three farms that we revalued internally. Overall, these farms increased in value by about $2 million over their previous valuations from a year ago. So as of September 30, our portfolio was valued at just over $1.3 billion all of which was supported by third-party appraisals or the actual purchase prices.
And based on these updated valuations and including the fair value of our debt and all preferred stock, our net asset value per common share at September 30 was $13.80, which is up by $0.64 from last quarter.
Turning to our capital makeup and overall liquidity, from a leverage standpoint and with respect to our borrowings, our loan-to-value ratio on our total farmland holdings on a fair value basis and net of cash was about 44% at September 30. Over 99% of our borrowings are currently at fixed rates, and on a weighted average basis, these rates are fixed at 3.35% for another six years out. So we believe we are currently well protected on the debt side against any future interest rate volatility. In addition, the weighted average maturity of these borrowings is about ten years out.
Regarding upcoming debt maturities, we have about $43 million coming due over the next 12 months. However, about $27 million of that represents maturities of eight loans coming due. The eight properties collateralizing these loans have increased in value by a total of $14 million since their respective acquisitions. So we do not foresee any problems refinancing any of these loans if and when we choose to do so.
So removing these maturities, we only have about $16 million of amortizing principal payments coming due over the next 12 months, or about 2% of our total debt outstanding. From a liquidity standpoint, including availability on our lines of credit and other undrawn notes, we currently have over $125 million of dry powder, in addition to over $100 million of unpledged properties. We have ample availability under our two largest borrowing facilities and we continue to be in discussions with these and other lenders for new borrowings and credit facilities. But overall, credit continues to be readily available to us from multiple vendors and at very favorable terms.
Finally, I will touch on our common distributions. We recently raised our common dividend again to $0.0452 per share per month. Over the past 27 quarters, we've raised our dividend -- our common dividend 24 times resulting in an overall increase of 50.7% in our monthly common distributions over this time. Since 2013, we've paid 105 consecutive monthly dividends to common shareholders totaling $5.39 per share in total distributions. Paying dividends to our shareholders is paramount to our business plan and our goal is to continue to increase the dividend at regular intervals.
When considering the relative stability and security of the underlying assets and the related cash flows, we believe the stock continues to offer a compelling investment alternative especially in light of today's inflationary concerns.
And with that, I'll turn the program back over to David.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
All right. Thank you, Lewis. That's a nice report and Erich gave us a nice introduction. So we're gliding along here. Acquisition activity remains good for us. We continue to see buying opportunities, we continue to make offers, we sign up people and get them into a position that we can go forward and close -- little bit slow in the marketplace out there simply because people are still reacting to the COVID-19.
Just a few final points before -- that I'd like to make before we move too far on. We believe that investing in farmland, growing crops that contribute to healthy lifestyle such as fruits and vegetables and nuts is following the trend that we're seeing in the marketplace today. Currently, about 85% of our total crop revenues come from farms growing the types of food that you'd find in either the produce section or the nut section of your local grocery store.
So if you want to see what we grow, just go to the grocery store and you will see it. We consider these foods to be among the healthiest type foods, and we continue to see a growing trend toward organic among these food groups. About 40% of our fresh produce acreage is either organic or transitioning to become organic and about 15% of the permanent crop acreage falls into this organic category.
We believe the organic sector would continue to be strong -- as very strong growth area. And in addition, more than 95% of the crops that are grown on our farmland is classified as being non-GMO.
Another major reason our business strategy is to focus on farmland growing fresh produce is due to the effect of inflation on the particular segment. According to the Bureau of Labor -- the Bureau of Labor, the overall annual food CPI generally keeps pace with inflation. This is why so many financial advisors tell their clients to invest in farmland because it acts as the hedge against inflation. However, over the 40-plus years, the fresh fruit and vegetable segment of the food category has outpaced total food CPI by a multiple of 1.5 times. And this is a large reason why we like being in this segment as well.
And while prices of commodity grain crops such as corn and wheat are typically more volatile and susceptible to global supply and demand, fresh produce is mostly insulated from global volatility mainly because the crops are generally consumed locally and within a short time after harvest. You've got about 14 days to get a strawberry off the vine and into somebody's mouth before it goes bad.
I'm telling you this because we are often confused with owning farms where farmers grow corn, soy, wheat and we have mostly stayed clear of these crops because we have to compete, they have to compete with other countries like Brazil, Argentina, the Ukraine, where cost of production, even after shipping cost, is very low. And those farmers can undercut the prices of grain farmers in the US. This year, grain prices have been much higher in the United States. But one reason and that's because Brazil and Argentina are in a very difficult drought situation. Farms in these countries, largely depend on rain for water.
So overall demand for prime farmland growing berries and vegetables remains stable to strong in almost all of the areas where our farms are located, particularly along the West Coast, including most of California, Oregon and Washington. And not to forget East Coast especially Florida and some of the other states on the East Coast, everything is going along at a good pace. And overall, farmland continues to perform well compared to other assets. There is an association called NCREIF and it has a farmland index and is currently made up of about $13.2 billion worth of agricultural properties including all of ours and that's averaged return of about 12.3% over the last 20 years compared to 11% for the overall REIT index and lower for the S&P index.
And during those 20 years, the Farmland Index has not had a single negative year yield, whereas the REIT Index and the S&P Index have had four negative years over that same period. Farmland has generally provided investors with a safe haven during turbulent times and in financial marketplaces as both land prices and food prices, especially for fresh produce have continued to rise steadily.
So just in closing, please remember that purchasing stock in this Company is a long-term investment in farmland. I think, an investment in our stock really has two parts. It's similar to gold in the sense that it's a hard asset, farmland or dirt, and it's the good farmland that can grow food. It has an intrinsic value because there's a limited amount of good farmland and it's being used up by urban development especially in California and Florida, where we have many farms.
Second, I'd like to compare gold and other alternative assets because it's better than those because it's an active investment with cash flows to investors. And we believe that's better than a bond fund because we keep increasing the dividend. We expect inflation, particularly in the food sector to increase and increase to values that pump up the value of underlying farmland to increase as a result. And we expect this especially be true of fresh produce food sector, the trends are more people in the US are eating healthy foods continuing to grow such products for distribution through.
And Gladstone Land would not be anything without the good people we have operating and managing it. Buying and leasing farmland is a complex business. So if you like, what we're doing, please buy some stock and keep eating fresh fruits and vegetables and nuts.
Now we will stop and have some questions from those who follow us. Operator, would you please come on and tell these people how they can ask us some questions?
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Rob Stevenson with Janney. Please proceed.
Robert Stevenson -- Janney Montgomery Scott LLC -- Analyst
Good morning. David, where is pricing for farmland today versus a couple of years ago pre-pandemic? When you look at similar properties, are we up 5%, 10% flattish? How do you sort of characterize it across your various sort of property types and markets?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Yeah. If you're looking at the Midwest, which is most often the one that's published, it's gone up pretty substantially this year simply because people are making money. They're also buying lots of tractors and those kind of equipment. In the areas that we're in, there has been sort of a steady increase over the last ten years and certainly over the last three or four years as people have realized that there is other things, other than corn and wheat that are growing. And I would say, there has been a good 15% increase over the last three years.
Robert Stevenson -- Janney Montgomery Scott LLC -- Analyst
Okay. And then given how hot the housing market is, have you guys thought about selling some of your land to homebuilders in some markets where it's bumping up against the farms?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
We have a few farms that are inside of the areas like, in California, you can't just sell your land to a developer and the developer goes off and builds where he wants to on it. In California, you need to get the local city -- you have to be inside the city districts. So if you're in Watsonville, you need to be inside of the town limits for Watsonville, and then the local government officials can make that decision.
If you're outside of that, you have to put it on the ballot for voting. And if you've ever seen a ballot for California, they are about four-feet long. There are really a lot of things on those ballots. And one of those would be I want to take that lot that's right next to the -- right next to this one or that one and build houses on it. And they always get shot down. Californians are not interested in building more houses. And so, you have California pushing now to take neighborhoods and tear down the houses and build apartment buildings or condos, something in order to increase the net amount of land that's being used for that.
And it's really rough in California. They're probably 15% under house built or places to live and they just can't seem to get out of their own way in terms of regulations. And I know a lot of farms will be there. We have one right inside of Watsonville. It's a small, mostly blueberries, no mostly strawberries in that. And I think some day someone will show up and want to buy that. But that's not going to be a big hit, it's going to be a nice hit. But they haven't shown up yet. And one reason is quite frankly the strawberry fields are in an area that is not the best part of town. So as a result, they have a lot of old houses around it and they haven't done much changes. And unlike a lot of cities in California, there's not a lot of people moving to Watsonville. So as a result, we haven't had the pressures that you'd have if we were next to Los Angeles or San Francisco or even some of the other large cities.
So I would say, one day someone will show up in one of our big farm, which is -- it's probably 500 acres, and it's right next to the ocean. And somebody is going to be able to get that through and build on it because it's an hour and 20 minutes to LAX, and that's going to be a big one. We paid about $25,000 in total for everything on that farm. It's probably worth $80,000 an acre today. And if you could zone it, it would be worth $1.5 million an acre if you could put townhouses on it.
So, yes, someday all you lucky people after I'm gone are going to enjoy the benefits of us selling some of these farms. Right now, we're not interested in selling anything. What we want to do is build an incredible Company with lots of farms and try to catch up with some of the other big farmers in the United States.
As you well know, there is a man that is in the -- really not in the business anymore, but he is buying up a lot of land around the country. He has got about 230,000 acres and he is the largest farmer and we need to catch him. It's going to be a while because there is issues in tax-free dollars to buy farms. But I think we are in good shape, Rob, and I think we're just going to continue doing the same thing every day for the next ten years until we get a really big farming operation going.
Robert Stevenson -- Janney Montgomery Scott LLC -- Analyst
Okay. And then last one from me. The acquisition vehicle, I mean, are the opportunities which you're looking at there going to be too big for taxable REIT subsidiary? Is that the reason why you're going that route rather than just putting any of the operations into a taxable REIT subsidiary for the time being?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Yeah. They are too big and they would overshadow everything. And as you know, if we bust that regulation, we are out of the REIT business for five years. So I don't want to break it in. So that's why we're there and we keep getting these opportunities showing up and saying we'd like to sell the whole thing, and we say, well, hang on, as soon as we get public, we will be able to distribute some of the $100 million that we have in that SPAC, and also give you some publicly traded stock. We are working on some now. We've got some in here. And when is our acquisition call? Did we have a date? Anybody know?
Lewis Parrish -- Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Treasurer
We don't yet.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
We don't have a date yet. Okay. I know he's filing next week. Is it...?
Erich Hellmold -- Deputy General Counsel
Isn't it filed?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
No.
Lewis Parrish -- Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Treasurer
It hasn't been.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
It's the case, so it will happen soon. You'll get a copy of it obviously, Rob, and maybe by then, we'll have something little more firmed up. I don't think it's going to be a problem finding things to buy. We've seen a lot of those. And what we want to do is buy several relatively large ones and start out as a diversified group rather than one that just does one thing and then continue to buy smaller farms and operations and have a good operating team. We don't have an operating team now. We'd have to tap one of our tenants to do some of that. But I don't -- I don't know how all of that's going to work out until we buy the first couple of farms.
Robert Stevenson -- Janney Montgomery Scott LLC -- Analyst
Okay. Thanks, David. Guys, I appreciate it.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Okay. Next question?
Operator
Our next question comes from Eddie Reilly with EF Hutton. Please proceed.
Eddie Reilly -- EF Hutton -- Analyst
Hey guys, congrats on a strong quarter. It's like this is the second quarter on a row where our lease renewals will contribute over 10% in growth in net operating income. Is this more indicative of the individual farms whose leases were renewed? Or is this indicative of the general environment we're in, in terms of inflation you think?
Lewis Parrish -- Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Treasurer
We think it's a little bit of both. I mean, obviously there are certain pockets in the country where if we were renewing leases in those regions, it might be a more muted increase or maybe even flat. But with a couple of the farms that we've negotiated, where those negotiations have taken place, in Northern California, Michigan, parts of -- some parts of Florida, Midwest and that's where we're seeing rents in those particular areas are increasing slightly, particularly in the Midwest as David mentioned, with the commodity prices this year. But Florida has been a pretty strong market consistently, Central and Northern California has -- Southern California cap rates have compressed a little bit there, but none of our lease renewals have been in that area lately. So it's a little bit of both.
Eddie Reilly -- EF Hutton -- Analyst
Got you, got you. And where are most of the lease renewals say in upcoming year taking place?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
In the rest of 2021, it's just one farm. We have three leases in '21 that are expiring over the next -- well I guess, actually over the next six months, three leases, but two of them are tenant termination options that are exercisable within the next five days. We do not believe the tenants want to exercise the option on either one of those. So it's really just one renewal that we're working on. And it's on a farm in Colorado that we're close to finalizing negotiations with a tenant. The gross rent is likely to remain flat. But we are expecting a significant decrease in the amount of operating expenses we will be on the hook for. So we would expect hopefully an increase in NOI for us there.
Eddie Reilly -- EF Hutton -- Analyst
Got it, got it. Turning to the financing, it seems like you guys have a pretty healthy loan-to-value ratio right now. Can you just talk a little bit about your plan of action for funding new deals going forward?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Well, we have three ways of generating funds for that. One, of course, we've touched on and that's the borrowing. There are lots of lenders in the agricultural space. In the US, we have -- I think, there's five federal large banks that do lending and we've used them pretty much every time. We also have a couple of large institutions. Rabobank is the largest in the world in terms of agricultural lending. We've done a little bit with them, but not a lot. And in addition to that, we've got -- MetLife is the largest lender in the United States and we've done deals with them.
So there is plenty of leverage, and it doesn't seem to be impacted by banks that might have problems. So we're in good shape there. We also sell some preferred stock. We've got a number of those outstanding and we participate by selling non-traded preferred. That's more expensive. It's about 6%, but we use it when we need a little extra leverage. So it's that kind of situation.
And quite frankly, the ATM Program has been very strong. What have you got from that?
Lewis Parrish -- Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Treasurer
We've got about $86 million over the past four months or so.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
So we've been selling stock through that ATM Program and using it to buy farms that are generating 5%, 6%. And so after leverage, we've got a good ratio. And the nice thing about leverage is that it doesn't go up until the end of it, and we've got long-term mortgages on these things. So as a result, the spread is sort of locked in for years and years and years. And so for us, the next movement for us is going to be to raise money in some other way. And I don't have any other way right now. But all of those that I mentioned are just wonderful places to get leverage now. That's going to change over time and that will reduce how much we can pay for a farm. And all of these farmers know that. So we've had good transaction with them. And as you probably know, we do from time to time have people that will take UPREIT shares that is -- and that's a non-taxable transaction whereby we give them shares of our stock and they give us their farm and it's quite nice for them and for us, because that's another way of raising equity. So we are in good shape on the financial side. We don't see any problems unless something blows up and I don't see that happening in the economy right now.
Eddie Reilly -- EF Hutton -- Analyst
Got you. Thank you.
Lewis Parrish -- Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Treasurer
And I will add regarding the use of some of the sources that David mentioned, in the past where we would almost always get a loan simultaneously with the acquisition, with all the equity proceeds that we've been able to bring in. What we've been doing and what we probably will continue to do is buy these farms with equity proceeds and then close on a loan, but not draw it until later. We want to close on it now because interest rates are very attractive. As we said earlier, we got 2.75% fixed debt for next ten years this quarter, but we want to lock in these rates, but not drawn them yet until late down the road when we actually need the additional proceeds.
Eddie Reilly -- EF Hutton -- Analyst
Okay, great. That makes sense. Thank you, guys.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Other questions?
Operator
Our next question comes from Eric Borden with Berenberg Capital. Please proceed.
Eric Borden -- Berenberg Capital -- Analyst
Hey, guys, good morning.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Good morning.
Eric Borden -- Berenberg Capital -- Analyst
Kind of -- can you talk about the volumes in the quarter? What was the mix in terms of deal size there? And then kind of maybe going forward given your favorable cost of capital, what's the appetite to target larger deals or maybe portfolios out there in terms of farmland?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Yeah, there are not that many that come up with big farms, other than the fact that the farms continue to go up in price in some areas. So I think we'd love to get some big farms, 5,000 acres would be great. We can find acreage here and there and everywhere. We also want diversification. So getting one huge farm like we have in Southern California. There are not that many people that can lease it. We've leased it to one of the largest strawberry operators in the country. And they are strong, big and lots of cash flow. So we like that.
But to get to these much larger farms, there aren't that many farmers that can take down that much. So we have to be very careful not to get in a vine whereby we have a large farm, we don't have a tenant. So we like the onesie, twosies. There not a lot of players there. And that's our forte as being able to negotiate those and offer the seller a good price for the farm, but also tax-free if they want to do the right transaction. So we'll keep doing what we're doing and the diversification is really important for me. I don't want to get into a situation where we've got a couple of big farms that are going to hurt us.
Eric Borden -- Berenberg Capital -- Analyst
No, I appreciate that. And then maybe on the acquisition front, kind of historically Q4 seems to be the key time to acquire farms, but given constraints as it relates to COVID, do you think you'll see more farmers come to market in Q1 or will there be some rollover there into the New Year?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Probably, I would guess. We never know if they're going to be able to close on time. We had one situation in which after the review of everything, we found that we were about a half a acre or maybe it was more on somebody else's farm that we were -- that the farmer was farming, and we had to get that undone before we close. And of course that's got to go through the government in California. So that's always a pain. Not that they're bad people, it's just that COVID has messed up their scheduling. And so as a result, we get -- we don't get really quick response on that. So you sit for a while waiting for it to close.
I think the bottom line, Eric, is that we are known in the marketplace now. We were not known five years ago very much. And so now everybody knows who we are, that's going to sell our farm, and so they show up on our doorstep. And we are just sitting there working with them, trying to get them to move to a point where we can get the deal done.
And unfortunately a lot of these farms are tied up in history that is it's been in the family for five, six generations. And there is a lot of emotional in the sale of that. It just is one of those things that it's been in our family for six generations or three generations, whatever it is and they don't want to let it go for what it's really worth to somebody who's farming it. And while we can always agree to look at somebody doing -- some third-party doing the review, it doesn't mean you're going to get the farm just because you got the review at the [Technical Issues] there is a lot of things bundled up into that.
There is a lot of farms out there in California. It's massive in terms of the areas that we like which is berries and most of the nut trees are out there. Certainly, almonds and pistachios, and we've picked up a lot of pistachio farms because there weren't a lot of people buying those, and it's a wonderful product. So, I don't know, acquisitions are going to go at the pace that people want us -- want to go. And I know, I talked to a guy ten years ago, trying to buy his farm, and unfortunately for him, he died and we bought it from his sister, who inherited that and she didn't have the same emotional impact and that went back to 1938, where they sold off the oil and gas underneath the farm. And so it was a little bit different transaction.
I just think there is the time when people decide to sell. The pandemic pushed some people along. Others once you talk to them and say, look you're 65 years old, do you have a plan for your farm? And they don't usually. So we show them how they can do it. We talk with some of the people that advise farmers on what to do and they see the non-taxable way of going, and here's the difference between that program that we have, is that farms that might be 200 or 300 acres are broken into maybe six or eight different tax districts. And so as a result, each one of those taxable pieces is considered a farm by the IRS, and so they can sell us three or four of those and take cash, and sell the other two or three in the form of cash, non-cash and be a shareholder.
We've had a number of those, where they want to take some cash out. And this is one of the only places that I know that works like that because if you're buying a warehouse some place, it's one unit. And so you've got to be very careful how you do that, because I think there is only a 10% amount that you can pay in cash, if the other part of it is in non-taxable.
The pressure that's been put on the marketplace by the reduction in 1031's value, because the government has changed the way that works, has been good for us. And I think we'll see more of that as time goes on. Anyway, if you talk to some of these advisors, farmland is where you want to be, but having a whole lot of money tied up in one farm is not where you want to be, as there's little -- only a few things you can do with it.
The other question?
Eric Borden -- Berenberg Capital -- Analyst
Yeah. Last one for me and then -- kind of relates to potential development opportunities. I know in the past you kind of talked about potential deforestation around the farmlands, certain farms, and I was just curious, is that potential -- does that arable land give you an opportunity to increase the acreage per farm or is that really not how I should be thinking about it?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Probably not the way to think about it, only because the deforestation is up in the mountains and we don't grow anything in the mountains. So we're not part of that whole problem. And it's really sad people have burned down houses and a lot of trees have been lost that were up in the mountains. But at the end of the day, problem for us is we just need good flat farmland and that's what we're looking forward.
So I think from our standpoint, you shouldn't look at it that way, you should consider it, gee, they've got some farmland, the farmer is going to sell it. If you sometimes have taken a small plane from Watsonville down to Oxnard, the two small airports you can go through, and as you fly over that part of the world, it's just everything is in farmland that isn't in houses. And so over time, there is no doubt in my mind that over time those places will go away.
There used to be -- in Watsonville, there was a company that you probably know, it's that sparkling apple juice, and a lot of non-alcoholic drinkers drink that in place of champagne. And they've been around forever and a day, and all of that farmland that we farm there in Watsonville plus thousands of other acres used to be, filled with apple trees. And those all got chopped down and put into berries and some of the other ground crops because it was much more profitable. And they now get a lot of their apples from up in the mountains of Washington and maybe some of the other apple tree makers. And so it's just a changing thing that goes on almost every day out there. And we are seeing more and more people needing place to live. And so it's going to continue with pressure on all of those places.
So, I don't know, Eric, we just are following huge transition in land from agricultural to places to live. It won't happen in my lifetime completely, but I'd say 50 years, a lot of that will be gone, and it will be cashed in by us and other people who own farms. So, hang in there.
Eric Borden -- Berenberg Capital -- Analyst
Sounds good. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Okay. We have any more questions?
Operator
Our next question comes from James Villard with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed.
James Villard -- Ladenburg Thalmann -- Analyst
Good morning, guys.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Good morning.
James Villard -- Ladenburg Thalmann -- Analyst
Just one quick one. How do you think inflation expectations were impacting your acquisition volume?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Yeah, maybe some there. Obviously, inflation in berries and other ground crops are pretty steep right now. And so the farmer is making good money and he wants more money than he wanted before. So, yes, it's following through. The difference is that a lot of the leases that we have in place now go up in price when inflation goes up. So, it helps us. We have stopping points as we call it, where in three years or five years, we assess the marketplace, and to the extent that the marketplace has gone up, we are able to push up the price of our rents. We also have, as we've mentioned many times now, the ownership in some of the crop. And as the crop prices go up, we benefit as well on that.
So it's kind of sheltered ourselves from inflation. We're not in the crops that people rent by the year. For example, a lot of the corn crops are rented on an annual basis, and they, of course, have a chance to jack up the rent every year. We've tried to stay away from that and just put some bumps in there for us, and all of others have some kind of way of the price going up and it's worked very well.
I think there is always a tension between what you want to do on something like that, and because if the prices of the crop go down, our rent doesn't go down. So we only have a chance to move rents up rather than any other method. And like many other REITs, we have built into our leases 2% increases every year, 3% increases every year, and that pretty much takes care of the way inflation is going.
However, at the rate of the last six months, that would be stripped away pretty quick. So inflation could hurt us, unlikely at some point in time, we will regain our strength back because the lease will come due and that's when we push up the price. I think the acquisition side -- inflation on the acquisition side is taken care of by the fact that people want to sell, they want to sell for no taxes or they want to sell and lease it back with some kind of inflation protection for us and for them that they know what they're going to have to pay over the next five to ten years, in the sense that they have a base rent and an inflated piece of the rent.
I don't know, there is not many ways to protect yourself. We go through that with our other REIT which is in the business of buying warehouses and office buildings that are leased to tenants. And those are all long-term leases with bumps every year. That seems to be OK, but I think you're right, there is some herd [Phonetic] against us being able to buy some properties, we looked at a farm in Oxnard, not too long ago that was growing some very inflated types of crops. And so as a result, they wanted more money for it and they also were in an area -- if you're in Oxnard, you're within striking distance of LA. And I think all of that land will be sold over time.
I remember going over from LA some years ago and I arrived in the afternoon and the twinkling lights were very few ten years ago. Today you come over that hill that's just before you get to Oxnard, and there are a lot of lights, so they're building houses there, they're building this, that and the other. And so it's going to -- it's going to grow, it's just too close to LA not to grow. So we're going to see that pressure on those properties as well.
Anything else I can answer for you?
James Villard -- Ladenburg Thalmann -- Analyst
Yeah. I guess just kind of following up on that, are you seeing any -- I guess, in the negotiations you're having on new potential leases, are you seeing more push back on your ability to get percentage rent agreements?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
No, I don't think so. I think we always -- there is a dance that goes on between buyers and sellers, and we are no different from anybody else. They're pushing whatever they think they can get, and which they should do. But I think the negotiations go pretty straightforward. Most people have already heard about us, they've already read about us, they are probably some shareholders that come with their land. But having negotiations go pretty straightforward, and some sellers as I mentioned in another part of the presentation have an emotional attachment to their land. And they just don't want to sell it at the average price that's going on.
They have their whole history. I know when we bought a farm in Oxnard, it had an old fashioned house on it. We ended up tearing down the house. And after we tore it down, I realized that one of the families there, all of their children who were in their 60s now had grown up in that house, and I regretted it from that standpoint, but we had to get rid of it because we were afraid they were going to come in and tell us, it's one of those protected areas that we couldn't tear down the house. It was a beautiful old farm house, but it didn't fit in the farm. They had been lived in for years and years and years. So it was not in good shape.
Anyway, I think there is a lot of people in the California areas that I went -- recently there was a family with 24 members in the family that had come over about 100 years ago. And each of those 24 people have the right to stop any sale. I had 23 of them lined up -- I'm sorry, 22 of them lined up, but they were two hold-outs and we couldn't get them to agree. So it's still sitting out there, I guess, it's ready for somebody else to take over at some point in time and sell it off. But it will get sold. There is just nobody there that wants to do it. Besides it's in -- it's growing garlic and how many people can grow garlic. Any other question?
James Villard -- Ladenburg Thalmann -- Analyst
I mean, I guess just following up on that, I mean, is there -- have you seen a change -- I'm guessing, where I'm getting at it, is there a change in what's versus pre -- I guess pre-inflation scare looking back to a year?
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
No, we haven't seen anybody say, gee, it's worth more this year because of inflation. I mean, I'm sure somebody argues that. We don't spend a lot of time on it. We usually have an appraisal. We need to keep the -- within the confines of the appraisal because that's what we borrow against this, whatever the appraiser says, the banks will usually give us 60% of that in terms of a long-term mortgage. So we don't have a lot of room to go outside of that appraised relationship, but we're in every time we do a deal.
So, yeah, they know what we can -- and we tell them, here's what we can pay. And they either keep coming back and negotiating or they stop and go away. And at this -- as we call it the smaller end of the spectrum, there just aren't that many people out there bidding against us. I'm sure we'll see somebody come and do the same thing we're doing at some point in time. So far, no one is there. And as you probably know, we have a huge team of people in both Florida -- not a huge team in Florida, but a huge team in California, just everywhere there, everybody knows us.
James Villard -- Ladenburg Thalmann -- Analyst
Yeah, thank you for the color. Great answer.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Okay, thank you. Any other questions?
Operator
There are no further questions in queue at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Gladstone for closing comments.
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Well, thank you all for asking questions. Hope you come with a lot of questions next time. It's always great just to chat about things that are on your mind. And we'll see you next quarter. That's the end of this call.
Operator
[Operator Closing Remarks].
Duration: 59 minutes
Call participants:
David J. Gladstone -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President
Erich Hellmold -- Deputy General Counsel
Lewis Parrish -- Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Treasurer
Robert Stevenson -- Janney Montgomery Scott LLC -- Analyst
Eddie Reilly -- EF Hutton -- Analyst
Eric Borden -- Berenberg Capital -- Analyst
James Villard -- Ladenburg Thalmann -- Analyst
<<<
>>> 'Stagflation is the message' as prices spike to 30-year highs: Morning Brief
Yahoo Finance
Javier E. David
November 11, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stagflation-is-the-message-of-spiking-prices-yields-morning-brief-100608345.html
Forget a 'taper tantrum' — 'inflation indignation' is here
After Thursday’s bad news that consumer prices in October ran hotter — at over 6%, the hottest they’ve been since the first Bush administration, to be exact — than Wall Street expected, most of the emphasis has been on the reaction in stock markets, where frothy prices pulled back from record highs.
However, as the Morning Brief has pointed out at least a couple of times in the last week, the more interesting reaction has taken place in government bond markets. Since the Federal Reserve announced its plans to taper its massive bond purchases, yields have been unusually calm, showing little if any signs of a tantrum.
Yet the white hot price data clearly upset the bond market’s equipoise. Rates spiked and spilled over into a tepid 30-year bond auction, where bidders drove up government borrowing costs on longer-dated paper by over 10 basis points. It reflected growing investor demands to be compensated at a premium in the face of spiraling prices across a range of sectors.
“I think this inflation is going to be pretty persistent,” Satori Fund founder and portfolio manager Dan Niles told Yahoo Finance Live. “I think we’re going to have a big problem, especially given where valuations are. I expect multiple rate hikes next year from the Fed.”
A market once braced for a "taper tantrum" is now in the throes of what I’d like to call inflation indignation. A convergence of strong pandemic-era demand, skyrocketing energy costs and the worsening supply chain crisis is creating the worst of all possible outcomes.
“The world’s debt levels, asset price valuations and current level of extraordinarily low interest rates, including negative ones overseas, is just not positioned for a bout of high inflation that we are clearly in,” Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, said.
With growth decelerating sharply from stratospheric pandemic-era levels, “stagflation is the bond market’s message,” the veteran Wall Street watcher warned.
The wags at BlackRock think the dreaded ‘s’ word isn’t warranted, writing in a research note to clients that “while many facile comparisons have been made to other historical periods of elevated inflation (such as the 1970s/early-1980s), and the term ‘stagflation’ has been bandied about quite a bit of late, we do not think the data warrants such worries.”
However, as we’ve noted in these digital pages more than once, stagflation has been a widening worry over the last several months, with Google searches for the term having spiked recently — alongside prices for just about everything (especially food, gas and rent: October’s price data showed tenant costs jumping by nearly half a percentage point).
“It has not just an impact on the consumer, it’ll start to have an impact on how asset prices reflect the change in the inflationary environment,” Vaughan Nelson Investment Management CEO Chris Wallis told Yahoo Finance Live.
“More importantly, we are starting to see it play out in the political realm as well,” he added.
That’s at least partly why President Joe Biden, sensing the dual political peril of ships marooned in the Pacific and spiking prices, vowed to make inflation his administration’s top priority.
He may want to move quickly, because the more inflation shoots, the grumpier the general public — already in a foul mood — is expected to get. Voter unease with the pandemic-era economy was at least partly a motivating factor behind the political earthquake of Virginia’s gubernatorial race, and the near-political death experience of New Jersey Democratic governor Phil Murphy, in what should have been a cakewalk reelection.
Moreover, political betting markets, which have become a more reliable barometer than public polling, are starting to trend in the wrong direction for Biden and his party. After the Virginia and NJ elections, US-Bookies.com shows Republican odds to win majority control of both chambers of Congress are rising sharply.
“With a string of poor approval ratings for the Biden administration, the Republicans’ odds improved to the point that bookies favored them to win control of Congress,” US-Bookies said. “And with Donald Trump being the favorite to win in 2024, the odds are now predicting a clean sweep for the GOP.”
Indeed. What a difference a year makes.
<<<
>>> 3 Ways to Earn Big Returns Without the Shaky Stock Market
Don't limit yourself to the stock market. These alternatives can trounce the S&P 500.
MoneyWise
by Rona RichardsonBy Rona Richardson
Oct. 28, 2021
https://moneywise.com/investing/investing-basics/3-ways-to-invest-outside-of-the-stock-market?utm_source=syn_oath_mon&utm_medium=B&utm_campaign=19414&utm_content=oath_mon_19414_new+investing+platform
We adhere to strict standards of editorial integrity to help you make decisions with confidence. Please be aware that some (or all) products and services linked in this article are from our sponsors.
Investment ideas are plentiful — but most of them involve the stock market or flipping homes.
If you’re looking for a way to invest without the violent swings of stocks or the headaches of being a landlord, this article is for you.
While most of these ideas can have big profit potential, please remember to always do your due diligence.
1. Invest in farmland and help drive agriculture towards sustainability on a massive scale
You can now invest in one of human civilization’s oldest and most reliable sources of wealth: U.S. farmland.
Unlike many other types of investments, farmland is intrinsically valuable — whether boom or bust, people still need to eat.
And with the global population poised to hit 10 billion by 2050, there will be no shortage of mouths to feed.
Between 1992 and 2020, farmland returned an average of 11% per year. Over the same time frame, the S&P 500 returned only 8%. And when considered on a risk-adjusted basis, farmland outperforms the stock market by a wide margin.
FarmTogether is an all-in-one investment platform that lets accredited investors buy stakes in U.S. farmland.
You can get a cut from both the leasing fees and crop sales, providing you with an income stream. And you can also benefit from the long-term appreciation of the land.
Start by opening a FarmTogether account free of charge. Review their past offerings, visit their extensive learning center, and review a sampling of the data and tools that active investors have access to prior to making your first investment.
2. Build a real estate empire without being a landlord
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Investing in real estate is another money move that might seem out of reach unless you’re already wealthy.
But Fundrise makes it easy for anyone to get into the real estate game, no matter how big (or small) your budget is.
Using Fundrise is a lot like buying stocks, only instead of getting a piece of a company, you get a share of real estate.
And Fundrise lets you invest in all sorts of properties across the country, from single-family homes in rural Texas to high rise apartments in New York City.
There are no transaction fees or sales commissions, and the standard fees are just 1% a year.
Set up an account in a few minutes, and you can start building your real estate empire with as little as ten bucks.
3. Jump into the crypto boom starting with $1
Once considered a niche asset, Bitcoin has entered the mainstream.
Even big names like Elon Musk and Mark Cuban now hold millions of dollars worth of it in their portfolios.
Here's the main allure of cryptocurrencies: Unlike fiat money, most cryptos have a limited supply of tokens specified by mathematical algorithms. So no matter how much money the Fed prints, cryptos don’t get diluted through inflation.
Some even call cryptos “digital gold.”
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin has returned an astronomical 8,667% over the past five years. Had you invested just $500 in Bitcoin five years ago, you'd be sitting on more than $43,000 today.
Thanks to Robinhood, investing in cryptocurrencies is easier (and cheaper) than ever.
Other big crypto exchanges charge up to 4% per transaction when buying or selling crypto.
Robinhood, on the other hand, charges 0%. And it allows you to trade not only Bitcoin, but also Ethereum, Dogecoin, Litecoin, Ethereum classic, Bitcoin Cash, and Bitcoin SV.
There’s no need to buy a whole coin. You can start with as little as $1. So set up an account and start investing today.
Final Thoughts
You don’t need to limit yourself to the stock market in order to invest successfully.
These three investment ideas aren’t typical, but nonetheless real. Maybe reading about these alternatives will inspire you to think outside of the box when looking for interesting places to invest your own money.
Always remember to consult with a financial advisor to discuss the merits of your ideas and associated risks.
<<<
>>> In a market full of wild valuations, Bill Gates holds these stocks for the stable income growth
by Clayton Jarvis
October 28, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-full-wild-valuations-bill-172300805.html
In a market full of wild valuations, Bill Gates holds these stocks for the stable income growth
Having sold most of his shares in Microsoft, Bill Gates doesn’t stand to gain nearly as much from the company’s market-topping Q2 as some of the other big shareholders.
But it’s safe to say that both Gates and his well-known charity will be just fine.
Gates is still worth more than $135 billion, according to Forbes, while the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust remains loaded with winning dividend stocks.
Dividend stocks are a solid way to diversify a portfolio that may be chasing growth a little too fervently. They generate income in both good times and bad, and tend to outdo the S&P 500 over the long-run.
Here are three dividend stocks that occupy significant space in the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust. It might make sense to follow in its footsteps with some of your spare change.
FedEx Corporation (FDX)
At a time when the global supply chain is bogged down from end-to-end, FedEx’s expertise in providing logistics solutions is more valuable than ever.
And with consumers getting used to having their products delivered to their doors, FedEx has been able to increase both shipping volumes and prices.
After increasing its dividend by almost 37% over the past three years, FedEx now pays investors an annual dividend of $3.00 per share.
The foundation’s portfolio included almost 1.5 million shares of FedEx in the second quarter of 2021. The shares have slipped since then, but Gates’ stake in the company is still worth about $354 million. They’re in line for a roughly $4.5 million dividend payout this year.
FedEx currently offers a dividend yield of 1.3%.
Walmart Inc. (WMT)
With grocery stores deemed essential businesses, Walmart was able to keep its more than 4,700 stores in the U.S. largely open throughout the pandemic.
Not only has the company increased both profits and market share since COVID coughed its way across the country, it has also established itself as a safe bet for investors come the next planet-wide catastrophe.
Gates owns a pile of Walmart shares — about 7.6 million of them. That accounts for about 4.5% of the foundation’s entire stock portfolio.
Walmart has steadily increased its dividends over the past 45 years. Its annual payout is currently $2.20 per share, so the foundation can expect a payment in the neighborhood of $16.7 million from the company in 2021.
Walmart currently trades at roughly $148 per share after a strong rally over the past month. But if you’re on the fence about jumping at such a high price, some investing apps might give you a free share of Walmart just for signing up.
Canadian National Railway Company
Canadian National Railway, or CN, has a 20,000-mile-plus rail network that spans from Canada to Central America. The company has access to all three North American coastlines — the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico — making it unique among North American rail companies.
It’s been a very good 2021 for CN.
In Q2, operating income rose by 76% year over year to $1.1 billion. Meanwhile, revenue reached $2.9 billion.
The Gates foundation owns almost 14 million shares of CN. The company’s quarterly dividend is 61.5 cents, 7% higher than it was last year.
CN shares currently sport a dividend yield of 1.5%.
Gates’ secret weapon
In January of 2021, Bill and Melinda Gates owned more U.S. farmland than anyone else in America. And it’s not hard to see why.
Between 1992 and 2020, farmland returned an average of 11% per year. Over the same time frame, the S&P 500 returned only 8%. And with the global population poised to hit 10 billion by 2050, there will be no shortage of mouths to feed.
Farmland used to be off-limits to the average investor. That’s no longer the case.
A new investing platform can help you plant your money in a variety of thriving U.S. farmland opportunities and watch it grow.
No green thumb required.
<<<
>>> Bill Gates is hanging on to these stocks for steady income — you can too
MoneyWise
by Brian Pacampara
September 23, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-hanging-stocks-steady-205400370.html
In a world of historically low interest rates, investors would be wise to look out for dividend stocks offering solid — but stable — dividend yields.
Bill Gates is hanging on to these stocks for steady income — you can too
Healthy dividend stocks have the potential to:
Offer a plump income stream in both good times and bad times.
Provide much-needed diversification to growth-oriented portfolios.
Outperform the S&P 500 over the long haul.
Today, let’s take a look at three dividend plays that represent sizeable positions in the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust.
After all, investment legend and BIll’s good pal Warren Buffett is a trustee of the foundation, so it might make sense to follow along — maybe with some of your spare change.
1. Caterpillar (CAT)
With a healthy dividend yield of 2.3%, Caterpillar leads off our list.
According to its most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Gates Foundation owns more than 18.6 million shares of the construction equipment giant representing 9.3% of the portfolio.
Caterpillar shares have slumped in recent months, down more than 25% from their 52-week highs, but now might be an opportune time for bargain hunters to jump in. Competitors like John Deere and Cummins have also been punished.
Despite the bearish sentiment surrounding heavy machinery stocks, Caterpillar’s dividend continues to be backed by unmatched brand credibility, scale advantages, and massive free cash flow generation.
In the most recent quarter, Caterpillar’s revenue jumped 29% to $12.9 billion. More importantly, management returned $800 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
2. United Parcel Service (UPS)
Next up, we have UPS, which currently offers a dividend yield of 2.2%.
The Gates Foundation owns about 2.8 million shares of the small-parcel delivery leader, accounting for 2.4% of its total portfolio. Gates also owns 1.5 million shares of rival FedEx, so it’s clear that he’s fond of the space.
UPS’ dividend, in particular, is supported by a massive air and delivery fleet that allows the company to earn above-average margins. In fiscal 2020, UPS handled 21.1 million average parcels daily.
More recently, operating profit spiked 47% in Q2 to $3.3 billion as revenue increased 14.5%. And year-to-date, free cash flow clocked in at $6.8 billion representing a jump of 75% from the year-ago period.
With e-commerce tailwinds continuing to blow heavily in UPS’ favor, the stock’s forward P/E of 15 seems reasonable.
To be sure, UPS trades at $187 per share. But you can get a piece of UPS using a popular stock trading app that allows you to buy fractions of shares with as much money as you’re willing to spend.
3. Crown Castle International (CCI)
Rounding out our list is cell tower REIT Crown Castle International, which currently offers a solid dividend yield of 2.8%.
Crown Castle leases its more than 40,000 cell towers to major wireless carriers including Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, so its dividend is backed by a highly reliable revenue stream and still-very attractive mobile data usage trends.
In the company’s latest quarter, management saw its “highest level of tower activity in history” fueled by a robust 5G leasing environment. Adjusted funds from operations — a key metric in the real estate industry — increased 18%.
Thanks to that momentum, Crown Castle paid common stock dividends of roughly $575 million, an increase of 11% over the year-ago period.
Crown Castle shares are down 6% in September.
Bill's preferred personal investment
There you have it: three attractive dividend stocks sitting in the Gates Foundation portfolio.
While growth stocks make most of the financial headlines, generating steady returns with stable assets should be a top priority for risk-averse investors.
Of course, you don’t have to limit yourself to the stock market to do that.
In fact, Bill Gates is partial to investing in U.S. farmland with his own personal money.
Gates is America's largest private owner of farmland and for good reason: Over the years, agriculture has been shown to offer higher risk-adjusted returns than both stocks and real estate.
<<<
Downside targets to watch for the S+P 500 -
5% correction = 4310. Today it dropped to 4306 intraday, so a 5% correction before bouncing in the last half hour.
10% correction = 4083, which is very close to the 200 MA (4106 and rising). So 4100 is a key target area to watch in the months ahead.
20% correction = 3630, which would also correspond to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (3644)
(numbers are approximate)
>>> The Taper That Will Really Bite Into U.S. Growth Isn’t the Fed’s
Bloomberg
By Rich Miller
September 19, 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-19/the-taper-that-will-really-bite-into-u-s-growth-isn-t-the-fed-s?srnd=premium
Pullback of budget aid could drive sharp slowdown in late 2022
At least some stimulus got stashed away, limiting fiscal drag
In the coming Year of the Taper, it’s the fiscal version that will really bite.
The chatter in U.S. financial markets is all about the Federal Reserve’s yet-to-be-announced reduction of its bond purchases. That’s obscuring something important: the already-under-way cutback of the federal government’s budgetary support -- which is likely to have a much bigger impact on economic growth next year.
Becoming a Drag
The U.S. government spent historic sums to support the economy in the pandemic. Its withdrawal will create an unusually big fiscal cliff
The U.S. expansion looks set to slow sharply in the second half of 2022 as measures that propped up the economy during the pandemic -- from stimulus checks for households to no-cost financing for small companies -- fade from view.
That will be the case even if President Joe Biden manages to win Congressional approval for the bulk of his $3.5 trillion Build Back Better agenda. The spending will stretch over years, with limited impact in 2022. It will also be at least partly paid for by tax increases that slow the economy down rather than speed it up.
‘Moves Sideways’
“We’re in for some very low growth rates” in late 2022 and into 2023, said Wendy Edelberg, director of the Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project. “It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a quarter here or there where the economy basically moves sideways.”
She’s not alone in forecasting a steep slowdown. Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., expects the U.S. to be expanding at a 1.5% pace by the end of next year, down from 5.7% over the course of 2021.
The coming deceleration would be unwelcome news for investors, who have bid up stock prices to record levels.
It could also spell trouble for Biden and his fellow Democrats in Congress, as they seek to retain slim majorities in November 2022’s mid-term elections -- especially if it’s accompanied by a rise in unemployment, though most economists don’t expect one.
There is a potential benefit: lower inflation. Prices have surged this year on the back of snarled supply chains and fiscally-fueled consumer demand. “We’ll need to come off the boil,” Edelberg said, because the rapid U.S. rebound will push the labor market and the economy to their limits by the middle of next year.
‘Wildly Overstated’
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are expected to discuss taper plans at this week’s policy meeting. Powell has said they could begin scaling back bond-buying this year. The central bank will still be providing the economy and financial markets with stimulus until the purchase program ends, likely sometime in 2022.
Not so with fiscal policy, which has already begun to act as a drag. The Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center calculates that the economic impact from federal, state and local-government taxes and spending turned negative in the second quarter and will remain that way into 2023.
And even if Biden gets all the additional expenditures he’s seeking, the contractionary swing in the federal government’s budget balance over the coming year will still be one of the largest on record, White House figures show.
Biggest Cliffs
The coming budget retrenchment will be among the sharpest in history
There are some mitigating factors.
U.S. households boosted their savings in the pandemic by some $2 trillion or more. That “cushions any so-called fiscal drag that might appear to be on the books,” said former CBO Director Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who is now president of the American Action Forum. He’s skeptical that budget swings will slow the economy dramatically, calling the idea “wildly overstated.”
State and local governments also have been slow to spend some of the help they’ve gotten from Washington, leaving them with firepower for the future.
‘Running for the Door’
But none of that is likely to fully offset the contractionary impact from fading budget support.
“The tailwind from fiscal policy is now beginning to turn into a headwind that is going to blow very hard by spring of next year,” said Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. “Without any additional fiscal support the economy will feel a bit fragile toward election day 2022.”
Investors, for their part, are starting to fret about a coming slowdown. They turned markedly less optimistic about the economic outlook in Bank of America’s latest global fund-manager survey, entitled “Fiscal Frenzy Flips to Fiscal Flop.”
At the same time, they’ve remained all-in on equities. That disconnect leaves stock prices vulnerable, said David Jones, director of global investment strategy for BofA Securities.
“The longer this dissonance between the fundamentals and the positioning lasts, the more it raises the specter of a violent, disorderly market event in which everyone is running for the door,” he said.
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>>> Big investors are starting to get worried: BofA survey
Yahoo Finance
by Brian Sozzi
September 14, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-investors-are-starting-to-get-worried-bof-a-survey-105901320.html
Big investors are beginning to worry about several key fundamentals that underpin the stock market.
Global growth expectations have continued to "fall markedly" in September, according to the latest survey of fund managers out of Bank of America. The survey found that economic growth expectations are at their lowest level since April 2020.
Expectations for economic growth plunged 14 percentage points from BofA's August survey. BofA said in the report that macroeconomic optimism is "tanking."
The sharp month-to-month decline comes on the heels of a lackluster August jobs report and an increase in earnings warnings from corporate America as the likes of 3M Company and others contend with the impact of the Delta variant on demand and costs.
The dimming outlook for growth has raised concerns among fund managers on corporate bottom lines.
Profit expectations appear to be dimming among those on Wall Street.
BofA points out that global profit expectations have also fallen "markedly" this month. Profit expectations are at their lowest level since May 2020. The September survey marked a 29 percentage point drop in profit expectations compared to August.
Further, a net 22% of those surveyed by BofA expect profit margins of companies to continue to worsen in coming months. That is up from 15% in August.
Amid the gloomier outlook for economic growth and profits, Wall Street handicappers are beginning to voice fresh worries about the path for stocks in the near-term.
“The bottom line for us... is the risk reward is not particularly great at the index level from here, no matter what the outcome is. That’s why we don’t have any upside to the S&P for the rest of the year," said Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer, on Yahoo Finance Live.
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>>> When the Fed finally steps back, can the U.S. stock and bond markets stand on their own legs?
Market Watch
9-11-21
By Joy Wiltermuth
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-the-fed-finally-steps-back-can-the-u-s-stock-and-bond-markets-stand-on-their-own-legs-11631321996?mod=mw_more_headlines
“I think concerns around tapering are a little overplayed,” says U.S. Bank’s co-head of the credit fixed income
The Federal Reserve is expected to follow the ECB and begin reducing its arsenal of support for markets during the pandemic.
Financial markets have staged a dramatic turnaround in the roughly 18 months since global central banks sent in the cavalry, with U.S. stocks climbing to dizzying heights and corporations raking in record profit.
The big question heading into this fall is whether markets can stand on their own legs once the Federal Reserve starts to pull back its pandemic firepower.
For its part, the European Central Bank this week announced plans to recall some of its pandemic monetary support for financial markets, raising expectations for the Fed to soon follow in its footsteps.
While ECB President Christine Lagarde said the pullback didn’t amount to a “tapering,” but was instead a mere recalibration of stimulus efforts, the decision was still viewed as a significant step.
When the pandemic struck the global economy in 2020 central banks embarked on large-scale asset purchases and vowed to keep interest rates near historically low levels to help heal their economies and keep credit flowing during the COVID crisis.
“The ECB has throwing down the gauntlet,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes, in a phone interview. “We are expecting a Fed taper announcement this year.”
“To narrow it down, we are suggesting it is going to come on Nov. 3, which is the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day November meeting.”
He also expects a quick tapering process that ends by June of 2022, followed by a 75 basis point increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate by the end of 2023, up from the current 0% to 0.25% range.
Vaccines, jobs, free markets
Fed Chairman Powell often has tied the pace of the U.S. economic recovery, and levels of central bank support, to the coronavirus, vaccinations and labor market conditions.
As a result Federated Hermes’ Orlando expects no decision on tapering the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly asset purchases at the central bank’s Sept. 21-22 policy meeting. “The reason for that is that the August jobs report was terrible. It missed by a half million jobs relative to consensus,” he said.
Labor market conditions are expected to improve in the next few months, given the expiration of the extra $300 a week in unemployment benefits and record job openings.
BofA Global summed up “perhaps the most underappreciated statistic in the jobs market” in this Friday chart, showing how job openings now outpace people seeing work.
“The Fed is pointing to the labor market statistics as a reason to delay tapering,” Ethan Harris and BofA’s global rates and currencies research team wrote. “We don’t agree.”
“If demand is red hot, their job is to lean against it regardless of whether it shows up as surging payrolls or surging excess demand for labor.”
The recent bullishness in the U.S. stock market has come as the U.S. faces its highest daily death count from COVID in six months, with nearly a quarter of the U.S. population still refusing to get vaccinated despite widespread availability in America.
In a renewed push to halt COVID’s toll, President Joe Biden in a Thursday White House speech unveiled a 6-part plan to defeat “the pandemic of the unvaccinated,” which has been filling up hospital emergency rooms and leaving others without access to medical care.
Rough patch
While it has been smooth sailing for investors this year, with the S&P 500 index up almost 19%, a rough patch likely lies ahead.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.78% shed 2.2% for the week, while the S&P 500 Index SPX ended the week down 1.7%, booking the ugliest weekly declines since June 18. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP retreated by 1.6%.
With stock-market valuations at “historically extreme” levels, a Deutsche Bank analyst said on Friday that the risk of a “hard” correction is growing.
In addition, there could be several waves of the coronavirus’ delta variant and the threat of other strains to follow, but also the potential for a significant leadership change when Chairman Powell’s term expires in January.
Since August, Orlando has been bracing for a 5% to 10% pullback in stocks through October, something which has not happened since November 2020 and which could take the S&P 500 down below its 200-day moving average of about 4,000. However, after that clears, he expects the index to top 4,800 around year-end, with a 5,300 forecast for 2022.
Debt test
Another test of U.S. financial conditions has been playing out in real time for borrowers in the near $11 trillion corporate bond market, where the first part of a September financing blitz has been going off without a hitch.
The week of the U.S. Labor Day holiday smashed daily records for the number of investment-grade companies LQD, -0.29% borrowing in the bond market, mainly with an eye to lock in cheap funding ahead of any volatility before year-end.
“It really speaks to the resilience of the market in terms of its ability to digest this volume of corporate credit transactions, despite the deluge,” said U.S. Bank’s James Whang, co-head of the credit fixed income and the municipal product group.
Spreads in both the U.S. investment-grade and high-yield, or “junk bond,” market have been hovering near all-time lows, even as the Fed sells the remainder of its pandemic holdings of corporate bonds.
“I think concerns around tapering are a little overplayed,” Whang told MarketWatch. “I don’t think the Fed would do anything to constrain economic growth, when there still is a fair amount of uncertainty around delta.”
In the week ahead, U.S. economic data will be focused on Tuesday’s cost of living reading via the Consumer Price Index and Core CPI for August. Then, it is more jobs data on Thursday, while Friday brings the preliminary University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for Sept.
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Procter + Gamble, Pepsico, Garmin - >>> 3 Shockingly Cheap Dividend Stocks
They pay cash to investors, and have trailed the market in recent months.
Motley Fool
by Demitri Kalogeropoulos
Aug 19, 2021
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/19/3-shockingly-cheap-dividend-stocks/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article
Values can be hard to find on the stock market, especially after the rally we've had since early 2020. But a few niches have been left out of that surge as Wall Street chases seemingly more exciting growth in areas like cloud computing and e-commerce.
That preference has created some surprising deals for income investors willing to buy an unloved, but still impressive, dividend stock. And a few of the best discounts in that arena today are Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP), and Garmin (NASDAQ:GRMN).
1. Procter & Gamble
Procter & Gamble was a strong business before the pandemic struck, and it has only boosted its value since then. The owner of several blockbuster consumer staples brands added billions to its sales footprint in 2020 by extending its market share lead in niches like laundry care, skin care, and baby care. And P&G's early 2021 has been a softer landing than that of rivals like Kimberly Clark (NYSE: KMB), with sales rising 6% through late June. Kimberly Clark's fell 3% in the same period.
Despite industry-leading growth and profitability, plus a dividend yield currently over 2.3%, P&G's stock has dramatically underperformed the market over the last year. Income investors might consider capitalizing on that (likely temporary) situation by adding the blue-chip giant to their watch lists.
2. PepsiCo
You wouldn't know it by looking at its stock price chart, but PepsiCo is stronger than it has ever been. Organic sales were up by double digits in its most recent report, which trounced expectations thanks to booming demand across its snack food and beverage portfolio. Profitability is steady, and gushing cash flow is allowing CEO Ramon Laguarta and his team to direct resources into high-return areas like the supply and manufacturing chains, advertising, and innovation.
That elevated spending has many investors looking elsewhere for growth, but that's a mistake. Capital investments Pepsi is making now should lay the groundwork for even faster gains than the roughly 4.5% annual sales uptick it has managed in each of the past two years. Toss in dividend reinvestments and expanding margins, and you have a recipe for market-beating returns over time.
3. Garmin
Garmin's stock has almost doubled the market's performance so far in 2021, but it has more room to run. The GPS navigation device giant just hiked its annual outlook across the board, with sales on track to reach $4.9 billion compared to $4.2 billion in 2020. Garmin's latest product introductions demonstrate a knack for wowing customers, whether it's with consumer fitness trackers, smartwatches, aviation, or boat navigation platforms.
Unlike other companies on this list, Garmin hasn't been left out of the recent stock market rally. Its dividend yield is relatively low for that reason, at below 2%. But investors who want to add more growth into their dividend-heavy portfolios might want to consider this stellar business.
Operating margins have been expanding for several years and should continue climbing thanks to growth in areas like aviation and boating. Its wider portfolio, meanwhile, protects against the types of sales slumps that have plagued less diversified consumer tech peers. These factors make Garmin seem cheap, considering its expanding earnings power.
You might want to watch this stock in hopes of scoring a discount as part of a wider market correction. Or you could establish a smaller position now and simply look to dollar-cost-average into the stock over time.
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>>> More Strategists Say a Storm Is Brewing in the U.S. Stock Market
Bloomberg
by Ksenia Galouchko and Joanna Ossinger
September 10, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-team-sees-risk-hard-025920070.html
(Bloomberg) -- Strategists from almost all the top Wall Street banks have come out this week with a nervous message about the U.S. stock market.
The latest views hail from Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and echo earlier pronouncements from Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp.
While investment banks tend to be measured in their outlooks, there are common threads that underpin their predictions that the market is vulnerable. Valuations are at historical extremes, stocks have rallied non-stop for seven months, the economy looks soft and the Federal Reserve is preparing to taper stimulus.
“The risk that the correction is hard is growing,” wrote Deutsche Bank equity strategists including Binky Chadha. “Valuation corrections don’t always require market pullbacks, but they do constrain returns.”
Wall Street Braces for Stumble in U.S. Stocks on Relentless Tear
Some of the market strain is already showing up. The S&P 500 has fallen about 1% in the past three sessions, though U.S. futures were indicated higher on Friday morning. The index has soared 100% since the March 2020 lows.
Here’s a rundown of commentary this week:
Binky Chadha, equity strategist at Deutsche Bank
“Equity valuations at the market level are historically extreme on almost any metric.” Trailing and forward price-earnings ratios, as well as valuation metrics based on enterprise value and cash flow, are all in the 90th percentiles, he said.
James Congdon, co-head of Canaccord Genuity’s research division Quest
“Global stock markets may be entering a period of turmoil.” He added that investors should favor stronger businesses with robust cash flows over weaker and more speculative companies.
Dominic Wilson, strategist in economics research at Goldman Sachs
“While the broad U.S. market outlook is solid in our central case, we think peak cyclical optimism in the U.S. may be behind us.” The strategists said hedges look attractive, especially on a shorter time horizon.
Andrew Sheets, cross-asset strategist at Morgan Stanley
“We are going to have a period where data is going to be weak in September at the time when you have a heightened risk of delta variant and school reopening.” The bank cut U.S. equities to underweight and global stocks to equal-weight on Tuesday.
Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America
“The S&P 500 has essentially turned into a 36-year, zero-coupon bond,” she said. “If you look at the duration of the market today, it’s basically longer duration than it’s ever been. This is what scares me.”
The threat is that “any move higher in the cost of capital via interest rates, credit spreads, equity risk premia, that’s basically going to be a huge knock on the market relative to the sensitivity we’ve seen in the past,” she said.
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>>> Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI) is an internally managed real estate company that owns and seeks to acquire high-quality North American farmland and makes loans to farmers secured by farm real estate. As of the date of this release, the Company owns approximately 155,000 acres in 16 states, including Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota and Virginia. We have approximately 26 crop types and over 100 tenants. The Company elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust, or REIT, for U.S. federal income tax purposes, commencing with the taxable year ended December 31, 2014.
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>>> Founded in 1997, Gladstone Land (LAND) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that acquires and owns farmland and farm-related properties located in major agricultural markets in the U.S. and leases its properties to unrelated third-party farmers. The Company, which reports the aggregate fair value of its farmland holdings on a quarterly basis, currently owns 127 farms, comprised of approximately 94,000 acres in 13 different states, valued at approximately $1.0 billion.
Gladstone Land's farms are predominantly located in regions where its tenants are able to grow fresh produce annual row crops, such as berries and vegetables, which are generally planted and harvested annually. The Company also owns farms growing permanent crops, such as almonds, apples, figs, olives, pistachios, and other orchards, as well as blueberry groves and vineyards, which are generally planted every 10 to 20-plus years and harvested annually.
The Company may also acquire property related to farming, such as cooling facilities, processing buildings, packaging facilities, and distribution centers. The Company pays monthly distributions to its stockholders and has paid 93 consecutive monthly cash distributions on its common stock since its initial public offering in January 2013. The Company has increased its common distributions 20 times over the prior 23 quarters, and the current per-share distribution on its common stock is $0.0449 per month, or $0.5388 per year.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LAND/profile?p=LAND
>>> How to Invest In Farming Without Owning a Farm
Investopedia
By JOHN LINTON
Jan 11, 2021
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091615/how-invest-farming-without-owning-farm.asp
TABLE OF CONTENTS -
Farm REITs
Agriculture Stocks
Ag ETFs
Ag Mutual Funds
Soft Commodities
The Bottom Line
Investing in farming can seem like a good strategic move. After all, whether the overall economy's in a recession or booming, people still have to eat. Because of this, many investors regard agriculture and farming investments as being recession-proof. Further, as the world's population increases, farming will play an increasingly important role in sustaining global societies.
That said, literally buying a farm isn't a feasible strategy for the average investor. Buying a farm can require a large capital commitment and the time and costs of operating or leasing a farm are often substantial. Fortunately, investors have many other means to gain exposure to the sector beyond sinking money into a farm.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Investing in agriculture means putting your money behind food and crop production, processing, and distribution.
As the world needs to feed a growing population and with less land, interest in agriculture production as an investment has grown right along with the world population.
There are several ways to invest indirectly in agriculture, from farm REITs to agricultural ETFs to the commodities markets.
Farm REITs
The closest that an investor can get to owning a farm without actually doing so is by investing in a farming-focused real estate investment trust (REIT). Some examples include Farmland Partners Inc. (FPI) and Gladstone Land Corporation (LAND).
These REITs typically purchase farmland and then lease it to farmers. Farmland REITs offer many benefits. For one thing, they provide much more diversification than buying a single farm, as they allow an investor to have interests in multiple farms across a wide geographic area.
Farmland REITs also offer greater liquidity than does owning physical farmland, as shares in most of these REITs can be quickly sold on stock exchanges. And farmland REITs also decrease the amount of capital needed to invest in farmland, as a minimum investment is just the price of one REIT share.
Agriculture Stocks
Investors also have access to an assortment of publicly-traded companies that operate in the farming sector. These companies range from those that directly grow and produce crops to those working in a variety of industries that support farmers.
Crop Production
One potential investment opportunity is in firms that plant, grow, and harvest crops. Many of these firms also engage in such supporting activities as distribution, processing, and packaging. Unfortunately, there are a limited number of publicly-traded crop production firms, which include Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. (FDP), Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO), and Cresud (CRESY).
Supporting Industries
Investors can also buy shares in a variety of industries that support farming. Three of the largest industries are companies that sell fertilizer and seeds, farm equipment manufacturers, and crop distributors and processors.
Fertilizer and seeds.
Many firms are involved in the production and sale of fertilizer and seeds, and investors will want to determine how much of each firm's revenue is actually derived from agriculture, as some also service a number of other sectors. Among the publicly-traded companies selling fertilizer or seeds are Nutrien Limited (NTR) and The Mosaic Co. (MOS).
Equipment
Farming's an equipment-intensive activity, so investors can gain exposure to the sector by making investments in equipment manufacturers with an agricultural focus. Two firms heavily involved in farming equipment are Deere & Co. (DE) and AGCO Corp. (AGCO).
Distribution and processing. Many companies provide the infrastructure that moves crops from the farm to the local grocery store. Among those that transport, process, and distribute crops are Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) and Bunge Limited (BG). As with equipment manufacturers, some of these distributors only derive a portion of their revenues from agriculture-related activities.
Ag ETFs
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are a good tool for investors to gain diversified exposure to the agriculture sector. The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO), for example, offers access to a diversified set of businesses, investing in companies that derive at least 50% of their revenues from agriculture. The best-performing agricultural commodity ETF, based on performance over the 2020 performance is the Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB).
Like investing in any type of ETF, investors should carefully consider each ETF's management fees and the performance of the index that the fund tracks.
Ag Mutual Funds
There are also mutual funds that invest in the farming and agriculture industries. If this sounds appealing, you should first determine whether the fund invests in agriculture-related firms or invests in commodities. Also, keep in mind that many of these funds have exposure to other sectors along with agriculture. So if you're more interested in making a pure farming or agriculture investment, you're likely better off going with other types of asset classes.
When investing in mutual funds, investors need to consider fees and past performance, and compare these to those of ETFs, for example. Mutual funds with exposure to agricultural firms or commodities include the Fidelity Global Commodity Stock Fund (FFGCX) and the North Square Oak Ridge Global Resources & Infrastructure Fund (INNAX).
Soft Commodities
More speculative investors may be intrigued by the idea of directly investing in commodities, hoping to take advantage of price changes in the marketplace. While you can gain exposure to commodities just by purchasing futures contracts, there are also a number of ETFs and exchange traded notes (ETNs) that provide more diverse access to commodities.
While some ETFs and ETNs give investors exposure to a specific commodity (such as corn (CORN), livestock (COW), coffee (JO), grains (GRU), cocoa (NIB), and sugar (SGG)), others offer a basket of commodities. As an example of the latter, the Invesco DB Agriculture ETF (DBA) invests in corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar futures contracts.
There's also the iPath Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex ETN (JJA), which invests in corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar, coffee, and cotton futures contracts, and the Rogers International Commodity Agriculture ETN (RJA), which invests in a basket of 20 agricultural commodity futures contracts.
The Bottom Line
Investors looking to invest in the farming sector have plenty of alternatives to actually purchasing a farm. Investors who hope to most closely replicate the returns of owning farmland can purchase a farmland REIT. For those looking for wider exposure to the agriculture sector, making equity investments in crop producers, supporting firms or ETFs could be their best option. And those looking to profit from price changes in agricultural commodities have a range of futures contracts, ETFs, and ETNs at their disposal. With all of these options, investors should be able to find an investment vehicle and strategy that fits their needs.
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>>> The 3 Best Low Volatility ETFs
Optimized Portfolio
https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/best-low-volatility-etfs/
Below are the 3 best low volatility ETFs for conservative investors to participate in stock returns while limiting downside risk.
USMV – iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
The iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (USMV) is the most popular fund in this space with over $34 billion in assets. This ETF is unique in that it uses a special algorithmic optimization to hold a basket of low-volatility stocks in aggregate while also attempting to keep factor and sector exposure diversified. The fund seeks to track the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Index. It has over 194 holdings and an expense ratio of 0.15%.
SPLV – Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF
The Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) holds the 100 least volatile stocks of the S&P 500 that comprise the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index. Compared to USMV above, SPLV provides a basket of individual low-volatility stocks as opposed to a low-volatility portfolio in aggregate. SPLV does not run any sort of optimization like USMV does. As such, SPLV’s holdings and sector exposure are considerably different than those of USMV. Historically, USMV has delivered greater returns and lower volatility than SPLV. SPLV has over $8 billion in assets and an expense ratio of 0.25%.
EFAV – iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol EAFE ETF
Those seeking international exposure can use the iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol EAFE ETF (EFAV) to capture low volatility stocks in developed markets outside of North America. The fund seeks to track the MSCI EAFE Minimum Volatility Index. It has over $10 billion in assets and an expense ratio of 0.20%.
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Bill Gates - Investment portfolio -
Microsoft -------------------------- (26.6 Bil)
Republic Services -------------- (11.9 Bil)
Deere ------------------------------- (10.2 Bil)
Canadian Natl Railroad -------- (9.6 Bil)
Ecolab ------------------------------ (6.5 Bil)
Fomento Economico ----------- (2.4 Bil)
Waste Management ------------- (2.3 Bil)
Diageo ------------------------------ (1.8 Bil)
AutoNation ------------------------ (1.5 Bil)
Sika ---------------------------------- (1.4 Bil)
Arch Capital ----------------------- (1.3 Bil)
Grupo Televisa -------------------- (446 mil)
Liberty Global --------------------- (241 mil)
Fomento de Construcy Contra - (200 mil)
Western Assets Infl-link OPPS - (177 mil)
Otter Tail ------------------------------ (172 mil)
Coca Cola ---------------------------- (133 mil)
Orascom Construction ---------- (33 mil)
Coca Cola Femsa - (130 mil) (All went to Melinda)
Private Companies -
************************
Convoy Inc
Ginkgo Bioworks
Delos Living LLC
CoGen Lyondell Power Generation Facility
Signature Aviation PLC
268,984 Acres of land (largest private farmland owner in the US)
Four Seasons - (3.4 Bil) (47.5% stake bought in 2007, Saudi prince owns the rest)
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-bill-gates-melinda-french-gates-divorce-fortune-split/?srnd=premium
>>> Why women investors outperform men in the long run
Yahoo Finance
Jared Blikre
March 12, 2021
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-women-investors-outperform-men-in-the-long-run-trader-205931074.html
When it comes to investing, women tend to outperform men over time, according to several studies.
"We're wired differently. Women have strong activity in planning and self-control. I think that lends themselves to be better traders," says Kathy Donnelly, proprietary trader and co-author of "The Lifecycle Trade."
Donnelly cites a 2017 Fidelity Investments study that concluded women earn higher returns than men when investing — to the tune of 40 basis points, or 0.4% — and that women save more. Over time, these small differences add up, notes Fidelity.
Of the findings, Donnelly says, "[The study] basically tied to trading less, saving more and willing to learn — I think that fits me to a T."
A separate study in the U.K. found that men outperform the country's benchmark FTSE 100 (^FTSE) index by 0.14%, but women tend to beat it by 1.94% — a difference of 1.8 percentage points. Warwick Business School conducted the study with the assistance of Barclays and found that men trade more often than women — 13 times per year versus nine times over the same period.
The Warwick study also found men are more likely to take profits on winning trades while holding onto the losers — concluding that female investors tend to avoid "lottery style" speculation. Men are more likely to buy lower-priced shares, which helps explain the modern meme stock phenomenon. Many of the targeted stocks like GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) are considered to be penny stocks (or at least they used to be when they traded at lower prices).
A Nasdaq report adds: "Generally speaking, women are more patient and allow their investments to grow. This is important because frequently trading and acting on short term fluctuations cultivate negative outcomes. In this regard, men could borrow a page from women."
When asked about her experience as a female investor, Alissa Coram, multimedia content editor at Investor’s Business Daily, says, "I think that the market doesn't really care what I look like, where I'm from, my age. I look at it as being optimistic ... [T]here are endless opportunities out there, as long as you have a great set of rules and strategies that you are abiding by when you're investing, and making sure you don't blow up your account. I think that the opportunity out there is for everyone, and that females out there should just go for it, and not let stereotypes of Wall Street or the financial world get in their way."
Trading in stocks has historically been male-dominated, but there are signs that cryptocurrencies are helping to disrupt that hegemony. Robinhood recently reported that among its customers, the number of female crypto traders has grown seven-fold this year — with 40% of their active women customers trading in crypto assets, such as bitcoin (BTC-USD), ethereum (ETH-USD) and dogecoin (DOGE-USD). “These figures are encouraging and prove that crypto can be a powerful tool in decentralizing power in finance," Robinhood says.
Donnelly wraps it all up, saying, "It’s all in the brain: Men are on a mission, women are on a journey."
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>>> New York’s MTA Poised for Fare Hike Debate Amid Ridership Drop
Bloomberg
By Michelle Kaske
January 5, 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05/new-york-s-mta-poised-for-fare-hike-debate-amid-ridership-drop?srnd=premium
Agency faces estimated $500 million gap even with federal aid
Board set to meet Jan. 21 to discuss, and maybe vote on, hike
New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority faces a showdown on Jan. 21 on whether or not the debt-ridden agency should boost fares as riders struggle during the coronavirus pandemic.
The nation’s largest mass-transit system is set to discuss, and potentially vote on, anticipated fare and toll increases at its next board meeting after Congress last month agreed to send the MTA another $4 billion of aid as part of the latest federal coronavirus relief package.
Even with additional federal money, the MTA’s $17 billion budget for 2021 assumes a 4% increase in fares and tolls that the agency implements every two years. But that jump still requires board approval. Several board members have pushed back against raising those fees this year as New York City’s jobless rate more than tripled to 12.1% in November from 3.6% the year before, according to New York’s Department of Labor.
“This is not the time to raise fares because our riders can’t afford it,” board member Neal Zuckerman, a senior partner and managing director at Boston Consulting Group, said during the MTA’s last board meeting on Dec. 16. “And there’s no way we’re going to close the gap on ridership whether with a 4% increase or a 40% increase.”
While making subways, buses and commuter trains more expensive during the pandemic places stress on riders, the MTA needs additional revenue. It still estimates a budget deficit this year of nearly $500 million, with an $8 billion shortfall through 2024 even after the $4 billion of federal funds and factoring in planned 4% increases on fares and tolls in 2021 and 2023.
A 4% fare hike would bring in a projected $48 million of additional revenue in 2021. The MTA would need to find that money elsewhere if the board chose to delay fare increases this year.
MTA’s board typically votes on fare hikes in January before approving toll increases a month later, and the agency then implements those changes in late March or early April.
Boosting fares could discourage people from using the system, where ridership on subways, buses and commuter rail lines has fallen to about one-quarter of what was projected before the coronavirus outbreak. It will be difficult for the MTA to return to pre-pandemic ridership levels while imposing higher fees, board members have warned.
“While the MTA’s standard biennial review of fare and toll policy has been in effect since 2009, we know this year is anything but standard,” Abbey Collins, an MTA spokesperson, said in an email. “We recognize our customers are facing unprecedented hardship and the MTA board will take all this into consideration as well as the thousands of public comments received after eight virtual hearings when making its decision.”
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>>> Apple is taking control, and a risky bet, with its M1 chip
Yahoo Finance
by Daniel Howley
Technology Editor
November 11, 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-m1-chip-taking-control-and-a-risky-bet-205657151.html
Apple is trying what no other computer company has been able to pull off
Apple’s most widely known product, by a country mile, is its iPhone. It’s the device that has helped turn the company into an empire and pushed its market valuation past the $2 trillion mark in August, a first for a publicly traded U.S. company.
And while the new iPhone 12 lineup is expected to kickstart a major increase in device upgrades and sales, the biggest news out of Apple (AAPL) in 2020 has little to do with its popular smartphone. Instead, the company’s most significant advancement in years comes in the form of its new M1 system on a chip, or SoC.
Apple CEO Tim Cook introduced a trio of new Mac products powered by the company's first M1 chip, replacing Intel's processors in its laptops and desktop products.
The tiny piece of silicon, which Apple debuted during a virtual press conference out of its Cupertino, California, headquarters on Tuesday, is the first of its own design to power its Mac line of products. As Wedbush analyst Dan Ives puts it, the chip “has been a vision 15 years in the making in Cupertino.”
With the new chip, Apple isn’t just signaling that it’s no longer willing to remain beholden to Intel’s (INTC) product pipelines and delays. It’s telling the world that it’s about to transform everything from how users interact with their favorite apps to what they should expect of their laptops and desktops.
But it’s a risky bet. Other companies have tried to use Arm-based chips in laptops before, but couldn’t squeeze out the kind of power Apple is touting. If it fails, the firm’s carefully laid plans could crumble beneath the weight of its goals.
Apple is making some big promises
During its announcement, Apple said that its new M1 chip offers improvements over leading PC processors in terms of both CPU and GPU performance, hitting right at the heart of Intel and AMD (AMD). In a statement, the firm said the M1 has “the fastest integrated GPU in the world,” and features “the world’s fastest CPU cores in low-power silicon.”
From a practical standpoint that means, as Apple tells it, that its new MacBook Air will offer 3.5 times the CPU performance and 5 times the GPU performance of the previous generation Air, all while extending battery life from 12 hours of video playback to a whopping 18 hours. What’s more, the Air won’t have an internal fan, so you won’t have to listen to the annoying whir of your laptop as it struggles to cool itself down while streaming Netflix.
The MacBook Pro, meanwhile, gets a 2.8 times faster CPU thanks to the M1 chip and a 5 times faster GPU. That’s a massive gain for a system that professionals rely on for things like high-end video and photo editing. Oh, and it gets, according to Apple, 20 hours of battery life when using video playback.
What makes this all the more impressive is that Apple is doing this using what’s referred to as a 5-nanometer process, which generally refers to the size of the transistors packed into a chip. Transistors are, more or less, on/off gates on a processor that allow it to perform instructions. The smaller the transistor, the more tightly it can be packed onto a chip alongside other transistors, allowing for greater energy efficiency and power. Apple’s chip, for instance, holds 16 billion transistors.
With the M1, Apple has jumped past both Intel and AMD in terms of sophistication. Intel still hasn’t delivered its 10-nm processors for desktops and, in its latest earnings report, announced delays for its 7-nm chips, sending its stock price plummeting. AMD, meanwhile, is currently using 7-nm chips.
If that weren’t enough, Apple is doing something that no other laptop or desktop maker has done before: using Arm-based processors, which have been traditionally found in low-power machines like smartphones and tablets, to power full-fledged laptops and desktops.
We’ve seen companies like HP and Microsoft (MSFT) use Arm-based Qualcomm (QCOM) processors to power their own laptops before, and while they’ve provided impressive battery life, the performance just wasn’t there.
That’s what makes Apple’s bet so massive. It’s aiming to do something other firms simply haven’t been able to accomplish: taking its own Arm-based chips and crushing the likes of Intel in terms of performance and power efficiency. If it fails, it will sour some of the company’s most loyal fans and could push them to Intel and AMD-based Windows PCs.
And the three Macs the company unveiled are just the beginning. Apple is going to use Arm-based chips throughout its entire laptop and desktop lineup by 2022.
And what about those apps?
So, Apple wants to make its chips its own secret sauce. But what does that have to do with apps? Well, since Apple is leaning on the same style of chip used in its iPhone and iPad, that means the majority of iOS and iPadOS apps will be usable on Macs.
That opens up Apple’s laptops and desktops to the millions of apps available through the App Store. That could be a game changer for Apple, which would bring users access to their favorite apps to the very laptops and desktops they’re now using more than ever due to the pandemic.
Those apps aren’t just going to be the same version from your smartphone slapped onto your Mac’s display with loads of distortions, either. They’ll function as full Mac apps complete with their own windows.
The App Store has been a goldmine for Apple, and to open it up to even more devices could allow for use cases that developers haven’t imagined before.
“We view the chip announcement as the first step of many more on the horizon in our opinion as Cupertino takes the reigns of its architecture and the cross pollination between software and hardware become ubiquitous over the coming years,” Ives wrote in a research note following Apple’s announcement.
Apple is taking control
Of course, it’s important to point out that Apple’s move is also a pragmatic one. Apple coughed up $2.9 billion for Intel’s processors in 2019. By ditching Intel, it cuts out the need to pay the firm for its chips, and allows it to create desktop and laptop experiences more akin to what you’d expect from an iPhone and iPad.
That means a more seamless user experience with advanced features like instantly waking from sleep like the iPhone. How that plays out down the line remains to be seen. But for now, Apple is clearly taking control of its own future — and placing some big bets on it.
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>>> Is MSCI a Buy?
The company leverages its knowledge and expertise to provide exceptional products to the financial industry while growing its subscription-based revenues year after year.
Motley Fool
by Courtney Carlsen
Sep 11, 2020
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/11/is-msci-a-buy/
MSCI (NYSE:MSCI) provides investment products and financial data to some of the largest asset managers in the world. You might be more familiar with it for its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) than for its own business. But its business is a strong one, and it's been a big winner for investors, up almost 500% over the past five years.
The company has built up years of experience in the industry and an extensive collection of historical data, proprietary equity index data, risk algorithms, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data, along with strong intellectual property protection on its indexes. As a result, it has been able to effectively leverage this data and expertise to continually improve the index and ETF products it provides for its clients.
MSCI capitalizes on this domain knowledge through a subscription-based revenue model. In fact, subscription-based revenues make up 74% of its $1.6 billion in total revenue since June 30, 2019. Not only that, but the company is able to keep clients satisfied, as seen by its 90%-plus retention rate over the past five years. All of these factors make MSCI a great company to consider adding to your portfolio.
ETF investing is a strength of MSCI's.
A staple in the financial community
MSCI's global reach attracts many big-name clients, most notably BlackRock. The company provides support tools and services for the global investment community including indexes, portfolio construction, and risk management analytics. MSCI's goal is to help clients understand key drivers of risk and return, which in turn help them build better portfolios.
MSCI's stock market indexes make up about 60% of the company's total business. An index can focus on a general basket of stocks, such as the S&P 500, or on investments that fit a very specific criteria such as ESG stocks. MSCI uses its expertise to continuously innovate its ETF and index products. For example, it offers indexes that target systemic style factors, including volatility, size, momentum, and value. It also offers newer indexes for clients that will track ESG companies as well as ETFs based on on-trend factors, such as smart cities, the digital economy, and other disruptive technologies.
In total, MSCI calculates 226,000 indexes daily and 12,000 indexes in real time, and serves 7,800 clients across 90 countries.
Subscription-based revenues are a key growth driver
MSCI's principal business model is to license annual, recurring subscriptions for the majority of its index, analytics, and ESG products and services for a fee due in advance of the service period. For its index segment specifically, the company sells index data subscriptions that give clients access to MSCI index-linked investment products on a contractual basis, rather than on a usage basis.
In its most recent quarterly earnings report, MSCI reported total 12-month revenue of $1.6 billion, 74% of which came from recurring subscription services. Since the end of 2015, it has seen revenues growth at a compounded annual growth rate of 10%. During that same time period, adjusted earnings per share grew even faster, at a compounded annual rate of 28%.
Recurring subscription revenues continue growing, as well. In the second quarter of this year, the company reported recurring subscription revenue of $309.9 million, a 7.2% increase over the same period last year. This increase was driven thanks to 10% growth in recurring revenue from index products and a 22.7% increase in ESG products. Subscription revenue has continued to grow despite the challenges the economy has faced with COVID-19.
A look at the competition
MSCI has a number of competitors, depending on which operating segment you're looking at. In its index segment, the company competes with S&P Dow Jones Indices -- which is jointly owned by S&P Global and the CME Group -- as well as with FTSE Russell, a subsidiary of the London Stock Exchange Group. In analytics, the company finds competition from Qontigo, BlackRock Solutions, Bloomberg Finance L.P., and FactSet Research Systems.
What sets MSCI apart from its competitors is its extensive database on global markets, proprietary equity indexes, risk algorithms, and ESG. The company relies strongly on intellectual property rights to keep many aspects of its products and services proprietary. Also, its strong relationships with its clients gives it an advantage over competitors, especially since happy clients stay with MSCI for years.
A happy client base
MSCI's retention rate, a metric that tracks the company's ability to retain its customers over time, is consistently 90% and higher over the past five years.
MSCI also continues to grow its subscription run rate. This metric provides an estimate at a particular point in time of the annualized value of the company's recurring revenues under its client contracts for the next 12 months, assuming all contracts are renewed. The subscription run rate is a key operating metric for MSCI because a change in its run rate would ultimately impact its operating revenue over time. New subscription sales have an effect of increasing the company's run rate and operating revenues over time. In the past five years, the subscription run rate has consistently grown between 7% and 10%, and its subscription run rate has actually grown over 10% in each of the past three quarters.
MSCI does a good job of maintaining clientele, a sign that its customers are clearly satisfied with its services and products. Maintaining a high retention rate is essential for its subscription-based revenue model to work.
Is MSCI a buy at today's valuation?
Investors may be concerned that MSCI is too expensive for its current share price. The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 56, which is much above its recent norm between 30 and 40. But its consistent sales and earnings growth and customer loyalty make a strong argument that it deserves its premium.
MSCI is a great company that continues to thrive -- even in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic -- thanks to its subscription-based business model, which makes it a steady and stable investment choice despite its high valuation.
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Dahaher - >>> For Investors in Danaher Stock, Breaking Up Should Be Hard to Do
This transformative company is wheeling and dealing to deliver a more profitable, predictable future for shareholders.
Motley Fool
Jason Hawthorne
Sep 18, 2020
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/18/for-investors-in-danaher-stock-breaking-up-should/
Frasier, Better Call Saul, Joanie Loves Chachi: TV spinoffs can be beloved connections to the past or outright duds. Corporate spinoffs, luckily, are more predictable; they have long been a source of outperformance for investors.
In a spinoff, the separation of businesses allows each to focus on what it does best. That focus creates an advantage that -- at least until the recent bull market -- had produced market-beating returns for generations. However, over the past decade, companies that were spun out have trailed the market by almost 3% annually.
Danaher (NYSE:DHR) is no stranger to the practice of spinoffs. The company has long been known as an ever-changing portfolio of businesses with a focus on manufacturing excellence and decentralized operations, and it has a history of buying, selling, and spinning off companies -- but its strategic focus has shifted. In 2015, management announced it would split into two businesses, maintaining the faster-growing, higher-margin science-based companies and spinning off its diversified industrial units. With history offering mixed results on spinoffs, curious investors might wonder whether this transaction has created value for shareholders.
Change for the better
The company was an early adopter of "kaizen," a Japanese operational approach based on continuous, methodical improvement driven by employees. Incorporating this process into what it dubbed the "Danaher Business System" provided a common approach for running the various businesses regardless of industry. The system worked: In the years between 1990 and 2015, shareholders were rewarded with a 9,900% return.
After the 2015 announcement, the company followed through with a series of moves. In 2016, Danaher spun off its industrial businesses as Fortive (NYSE:FTV). The company followed up by spinning out its dental business into Envista (NYSE:NVST) at the end of 2019.
Those businesses that remained under the Danaher name were less reliant on one-off transactions in favor of recurring revenue. Businesses with predictable, recurring revenue typically command much higher valuations than more traditional ones with sales that may or may not be repeated.
The apple doesn't fall far from the tree
When it was spun out in 2016, Fortive was quickly dubbed "Danaher 2.0" thanks to its rapid acquisitions of ISC, Landauer, Gordian, Accruent, and ASP. These businesses bolstered Fortive's industrial offerings with such products as on-the-job gas and radiation monitoring and software to manage facilities, assets, and construction costs. The company fulfilled its legacy as a miniature version of its former parent in September 2019, announcing it was also splitting itself into two businesses.
For their part, Fortive investors have seen an 11.3% annual return since its July 2016 debut, compared with 12.7% for the S&P 500. While the shares have only produced market-matching returns, Danaher investors who received them as a tax-free dividend have plenty to appreciate. The spinoff is only one part of the equation.
A rolling stone gathers no moss
Danaher's transactions over the past five years have all demonstrated its effort to concentrate around a portfolio of diagnostics, life sciences, and environmental solutions. The core of this portfolio began with the 2011 acquisition of diagnostics business Beckman Coulter for $6.8 billion. The company has continued building this segment through acquisition, completing a series of deals worth $20 billion since 2015.
To understand not only how investors have fared but how they are positioned for the future, it is instructive to look at two of the metrics that drove the spinoff: revenue growth and profit margins.
Metric Danaher Fortive
Revenue Growth
2019: 5.1%
2018: 9.9%
2019: 13.4%
2018: 12.1%
Operating Margin
2019: 20%
2018: 19.3%
2019: 13.7%
2018: 18.3%
The results are mixed. While Fortive has been growing faster, Danaher does produce higher profit margins. To make a more apt comparison, we can compare Danaher's overall life sciences business as reported by the company to that same business without acquisitions -- the "core" business. This is a better apples-to-apples comparison.
Metric Life Sciences Life Sciences (Core) Fortive
Revenue Growth
2019: 7.5%
2018: 13.5%
2019: 7%
2018: 7.5%
2019: 13.4%
2018: 12.1%
Operating Margin
2019: 20.2%
2018: 19%
The company does not break this out
2019: 13.7%
2018: 18.3%
Once again the results are mixed. It's clear that the retained life sciences unit is more profitable, but Fortive, despite being spun off as the slower-growing business, is expanding faster. Based on the numbers above, you might expect Danaher's stock to be doing no better than, or even lagging, Fortive's. You would be wrong. Danaher stock is up 154%, or 25% annually, since the Fortive spinoff.
Recall the effects of recurring revenue? Now let's look at how the market is valuing each company. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is a useful valuation measure that compares the market cap of a company to its annual revenues. Typically, this ratio increases along with the predictability of sales.
Company 2016 P/S 2020 P/S
Fortive 3.0 3.7
Danaher 2.4 8.0
Sealing the deal
Danaher has has bought, sold, and spun off businesses to generate incredible shareholder returns, and it has built a reputation as a home to management gurus. After splitting the business in 2015, management doubled down on faster-growing, more profitable businesses with predictable revenue. Despite mixed financial results, the market has rewarded the moves by significantly increasing the valuation. Management has proven that investing in Danaher is a long-term commitment that pays off; however, given the recent run up, healthcare investors should wait for a better opportunity to acquire shares.
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American Tower, Mastercard - >>> 2 Stocks I'm Never Selling
by Royston Yang
Motley Fool
Sep 18, 2020
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/18/2-stocks-im-never-selling/
Finding great companies to buy is just half of the equation when it comes to investing. The other half is holding on to them through thick and thin as they go on to grow and compound your money over years, or even decades. A big problem I've noticed with many investors is their tendency to sell an investment that's been doing splendidly, only to regret their decision when the stock continues to make multiple new all-time highs as its business booms.
Granted, there may not be many companies out there that are worthy of long-term investment. With the world changing so quickly and technology enabling new business models to emerge, it can be tough to filter out businesses that can stand the test of time. Some attributes I look out for include a strong competitive moat, a recognizable brand, and a track record of adaptability and resilience during crises.
Here are two stocks that I believe possess the above criteria, and both have a great chance of posting consistent multi-year growth.
American Tower
American Tower (NYSE:AMT), which is structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT), owns and operates a portfolio of around 181,000 communication towers that are leased to telecommunication companies and wireless service providers. The company has expanded its portfolio steadily over the years through a combination of acquisitions and organic growth, and has also posted consistent dividend growth of around 20% year over year in the last three years.
The driver for American Tower's growth is the capital expenditure incurred by network operators to increase their coverage and serve customers. With the proliferation of smart phones and mobile devices, these operators need to constantly upgrade their networks to ensure seamless connections. CEO Tom Bartlett mentioned in the company's recent conference call that network service providers in international markets where the REIT operates are expected to spend around $30 billion this year alone, effectively doubling the total addressable market for American Tower's U.S. market.
The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated the shift toward digital applications and led to significant strains on existing mobile networks due to a surge in data usage. American Tower expects to build around 500 new communication sites across Latin America to cater to this increase in demand, while India is expected to spend significant sums of money to improve its networks. These are just some examples of the strategic initiatives investors can look forward to.
And let's not forget that the installation of 5G networks is in the cards for many countries. With speeds up to a hundred times faster than current networks and promising much less lag, this next generation of internet connectivity will push telecommunication giants to incur tremendous spending in the next decade. American Tower is well-poised to enjoy the benefits from this trend and the conversion from 4G to 5G acts as a strong catalyst for the business to continue growing its earnings and dividends.
Mastercard
Mastercard (NYSE:MA) is a financial services giant with over 2.6 billion credit and debit cards in circulation globally. The company's strong brand name and dominance have allowed it to grow steadily over the years as one of the leading players in this industry. Although COVID-19 has led to a plunge in consumer spending since April, the company has been closely monitoring transaction levels on a weekly basis and saw a gradual but sustained improvement in total transaction volume in August.
The company is also pioneering contactless payments for those who are worried about catching the virus. By leveraging its Shop Anywhere technology platform, Mastercard is piloting programs at several well-known retailers to test if this method of payment helps reduce wait times.
Despite the crisis, the payments giant continues to forge partnerships and collaborations with different businesses to expand its reach and garner a larger customer base. In July, the company expanded its cryptocurrency program and invited crypto-card partners to join Mastercard's Accelerate program, giving them access to resources and benefits to enable them to grow. Last month, Mastercard and TransferWise expanded their existing partnership to allow for the company's cards to be issued anywhere around the world that TransferWise is licensed, helping to further broaden Mastercard's reach.
And in a canny move to introduce customized payment solutions for consumers, Mastercard partnered with TSYS, a global payments company, to allow the consumer to have much more flexibility in deciding when to take up an installment plan, be it pre-sale, point of sale, or post-sale. These strategic initiatives will take time to bear fruit, but they demonstrate management's commitment to growing the business steadily, giving investors a lot to anticipate.
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Amazon, Procter & Gamble - 2 Stocks You Can Keep Forever
You should consider making these companies part of your core holdings.
Lawrence Rothman, CFA
Sep 17, 2020
As these turbulent times show, finding companies that show strength through challenging periods is tough. However, this is what separates the great companies from the merely good companies, and when you find one that does well in a variety of environments, you should hold on to the shares for the long haul.
After all, a forever holding period is not something you should take lightly. Here are two stocks that belong in that exclusive group.
1. Amazon
It is hard to believe that Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) was only founded 26 years ago, since the company has become such an integral part of our daily lives. It has certainly become far more than the bookseller it began as, now selling just about everything under the sun.
Amazon says it is looking to become "Earth's most customer-centric company," through tenets like obsessively focusing on the customer and having a long-term view.
There was a time when it was growing sales but not reporting a profit, since management kept investing in growth initiatives. Amazon is still forward-looking, but thankfully for shareholders, it now reports huge profits. In the last five years, its sales have gone from $107 billion to $280.5 billion. Over that same period, Amazon's operating income has grown nearly seven times from $2.2 billion to $14.5 billion.
It is much more than a retail website, though. For starters, there is its popular Amazon Prime subscription service which allows people to get faster delivery without paying an extra charge, plus a streaming service, for an annual fee. It also sells electronic devices like its Kindle and Alexa.
If that isn't enough, there's the Amazon Web Services business, its cloud computing division that helps companies with things like analytics. Accounting for about 12% of Amazon's annual sales, it is smaller than the North American and international retail segments. However, AWS has been growing faster than the other two, with a 35% sales increase last year.
With people staying at home and ordering goods online, Amazon's second-quarter sales growth was 40%, and the company went on a hiring spree. This indicates management believes that the increase in business is more than a temporary phenomenon. Online shopping was growing rapidly before the pandemic, but it has increased even more since governments ordered people to stay at home and forced other retailers to shut their doors.
Undoubtedly, the accelerating trend toward e-commerce will help the company over the long haul. Given what the company has accomplished in a relatively short period of time and its ability to disrupt industries (e.g. grocery) once it enters with its fast delivery and low prices, Amazon's prospects remain strong.
The only possible negative is the valuation. After the share price's 58% increase this year, the trailing price-to-earnings ratio is over 115. But when you are in a stock for the long haul, you can pay up for quality and withstand any short-term corrections.
2. Procter & Gamble
Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) has thrived for 183 years by selling a host of products like shampoo, shaving cream, razors, and laundry detergent. It has well-known, popular brands like Head and Shoulders, Gillette, Crest, Always, and Bounty, to name just a few.
This is a particularly good company if collecting dividends interests you. In fact, it has paid one since 1890 and increased the amount for 64 straight years. This makes Procter & Gamble a Dividend King, a member of the S&P 500 index that has raised its dividends for at least 50 consecutive years. Procter & Gamble's dividend yield is 2.3%. Its ability to increase its payouts through all kinds of economic environments should provide investors with a sense of comfort.
People staying at home boosted Procter & Gamble's results, with fiscal 2020 (ended June 30) adjusted sales increasing by 6%. However, even before COVID-19 started materially affecting results, its first-half sales, excluding acquisitions and divestitures, rose by 5%.
Management has taken steps over the last several years to continue the company's growth, such as selling brands that didn't fit with the overall company, and more recently, focusing on innovation. For instance, it recently launched Microban 24, a line of cleaning products that kill bacteria for 24 hours. The launch was well timed given COVID-19, and it couldn't keep up with demand. Management expects annual sales of about $200 million, which is ahead of its initial projection.
With strong brands, reinvigorated growth, and reliable dividends, this one's a keeper.
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>>> 3 Stocks to Buy and Hold for Decades
These three incredible stocks have multibagger potential if you hold them for decades.
Motley Fool
by Neha Chamaria
Aug 30, 2020
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/30/3-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-decades/
Investing in stocks is one thing, and owning them for decades is another. Studies have shown how some stocks can make investors rich, even millionaires, if investors have had the patience to ignore the day-to-day meanderings of the market and own the stocks for decades.
Of course, stocks that you can own for such a long time must not only have proved their mettle but also must possess major growth catalysts to keep the momentum going. if you're already wondering where to find such stocks today that could make you so wealthy years down the line, check out the following three champions in their respective industries.
An under-the-radar stock with incredible prospects
American Water Works (NYSE:AWK) shares have risen nearly sixfold in the past decade, and almost eightfold with reinvested dividends. While past performance doesn't guarantee future returns, the stock has great chances to be a multibagger in coming decades for three key reasons:
A regulated business.
A well-defined capital expenditure plan for rate base growth.
Dividend growth.
American Water provides water and wastewater services to nearly 15 million customers across 45 states in the U.S. and parts of Canada. Its revenue is regulated, which means public utility commissions set the rates the company can charge customers for its services. That eliminates much of its top-line volatility, allowing American Water to generate stable cash flows and pay regular dividends.
This past April, American Water increased its quarterly dividend by 10%, in line with its dividend policy of aligning "dividend increases with long-term earnings-per-share growth, and to provide for a target payout ratio between 50 to 60 percent of net income." That payout ratio range makes the stock's dividends very safe.
But if you're wondering how a company whose service rates are regulated can grow, here's the thing: A regulated utility is required to regularly upgrade, modernize, and expand its infrastructure to win timely approvals for any proposed rate hikes. American Water has big plans: It plans to pump $20 billion to $22 billion in capital investment over the next decade. In the medium term, the company expects its rate base -- the value of property used to provide services and on which rates are determined -- to grow at a compound annual rate of 7%-8% through 2024.
That rate base growth and capital investment should be good enough to propel American Water's earnings and dividends higher, making it a no-brainer stock to own for decades.
This secular trend could make many millionaires
Mastercard (NYSE:MA) is a fantastic stock to bet on a hugely promising secular trend -- cashless modes of payment (cards, digital wallets, mobile payments) replacing cash all over the world. While e-commerce has been a major trigger for this shift, the coronavirus outbreak could prove to be the biggest impetus yet as customers skip brick-and-mortar shops to increasingly shop online, even forcing many stores to go virtual.
It's a trend that's here to stay, and as one of the world's largest payment processing companies, Mastercard stands to be a major beneficiary.
The key point to understand here is that Mastercard is a payments facilitator and not a lender. In other words, the Mastercard-branded credit and debit cards you and I use are issued by financial institutions and not the company. Mastercard simply facilitates transactions between parties like consumers, banks and financial institutions, and merchants over its payments-processing network. Every time someone uses a Mastercard card to make a purchase, the company earns fees.
It's a sustainable, high-margin business model -- Mastercard's operating margins have ranged well above 50% for several years now. Aside from transaction fees, the fintech company also has earns from ancillary services such as cybersecurity, data analytics, and loyalty reward programs. As of Dec. 31, 2019, Mastercard had 2.6 billion Mastercard- and- Maestro-branded cards issued worldwide, with aggregate purchases made through its cards amounting to a whopping $6.5 trillion during the year.
With an enviable lineup of top global companies as partners, a massive addressable market, and management's focus on technology-driven products, Mastercard is a classic buy-and-hold stock to own.
Healthcare is where real money is
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), the world's largest healthcare conglomerate with a hugely diversified portfolio, aggressive growth plans, and one of the best dividend track records in the sector is most likely to mint investors a lot of money in the decades to come.
Though better known for its consumer health products (think Neutrogena, Listerine, Band-Aid, Benadryl, Nicorette, and its namesake Johnson's brand), Johnson & Johnson generated half its sales from pharmaceuticals and nearly one-third from medical device sales in 2019. Not one to rest on its laurels, the company just made a massive growth move: Johnson & Johnson is all set to acquire Momenta Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:MNTA) in a humongous $6.5 billion all-cash deal to take a huge leap in immunology, one of the several pharma areas the company dabbles in.
Johnson & Johnson strives to create value through research and development spending over the years -- nearly 25% of its sales consistently come from products launched in the past five years. And the company's sales and cash flows have grown rapidly all through, supporting growing dividends that have driven shareholder returns higher.
Johnson & Johnson, in fact, is a Dividend King, or among the few companies to have raised dividends every year for atleast 50 years -- its latest dividend increase of 6.3% in April was its 58th annual increase. The stock currently yields 2.7%.
Johnson & Johnson has an incredible biotech pipeline among other things that should see the company grow leaps and bounds in the years to come. It's also the latest to join the race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. With such an impressive history over its 130 years of existence and tremendous growth prospects, this stock's one for keeps.
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>>> Danaher Appoints Rainer M. Blair As President And CEO
Sept. 1, 2020
http://investors.danaher.com/2020-09-01-Danaher-Appoints-Rainer-M-Blair-As-President-And-CEO
Danaher Corporation (NYSE: DHR) ("Danaher" or "the Company") announced that the Company's Board of Directors has implemented its previously disclosed succession plan and appointed Rainer M. Blair as President and Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors effective today, September 1, 2020. Mr. Blair's predecessor, Thomas P. Joyce, Jr., retired from these positions and will continue to support Danaher as a senior advisor through February 28, 2021.
ABOUT DANAHER
Danaher is a global science and technology innovator committed to helping its customers solve complex challenges and improving quality of life around the world. Its family of world class brands has leadership positions in the demanding and attractive health care, environmental and applied end-markets. With more than 20 operating companies, Danaher's globally diverse team of more than 67,000 associates is united by a common culture and operating system, the Danaher Business System, and its Shared Purpose, Helping Realize Life's Potential. For more information, please visit www.danaher.com. <<<
_______________________________________________________
>>> Rainer Blair is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Danaher Corporation. Beginning September 2020, Rainer has led Danaher’s $21B global, multi-industry portfolio of businesses. With the help of Danaher’s 67,000 global associates, he is focused on further strengthening Danaher’s position as a leading science and technology company.
Rainer is a dedicated leader and practitioner of the Danaher Business System, the company’s pre-eminent operating model and cultural foundation. He is deeply committed to the company’s Core Values and Shared Purpose: Helping Realize Life’s Potential. He has been a principle architect of Danaher’s associate engagement strategy and Diversity + Inclusion journey.
“Throughout Danaher’s history we have focused on exceeding the expectations of our shareholders, customers and associates globally. With a strong portfolio, experienced leadership team, and the power of the Danaher Business System, we have a bright future ahead.”
Rainer brings more than 30 years of deep and diverse experience to his current role. Rainer joined Danaher in 2010 and held leadership roles across several operating companies before being named Executive Vice President of Danaher’s Life Sciences platform in 2014. Through a combination of organic and inorganic growth investments, he helped Danaher build a portfolio of Life Sciences businesses uniquely positioned to reduce time to market and cost of biologic drugs. Under his leadership, the Life Sciences platform annual revenues increased five-fold to approximately $10 billion today.
Prior to Danaher, Rainer was President and CEO for MAPEI Americas, a $2.3 billion global, diversified construction chemical corporation. He previously spent 15 years with BASF Group on three continents with progressively larger leadership roles. He is U.S. Army veteran. He earned his B.A. from the University of Massachusetts - Amherst and his M.S. from Boston University. Rainer and his wife Alaine live in Alexandria, VA, and have three adult children.
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https://www.danaher.com/who-we-are/leadership-team
>>> Is Innovative Industrial Properties a Great Dividend Stock?
The cannabis company raised its payouts by 6% earlier this year.
Motley Fool
David Jagielski
Aug 23, 2020
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/23/is-innovative-industrial-properties-a-great-divide/
Are you looking for a great dividend stock? They're often hard to find, and that's because it takes a lot to be one. The company needs to pay investors an above-average yield, it should increase its payouts regularly, and the dividend payments should also be safe. You want to be able to just buy the stock and not worry about it.
Today, I'll look at whether cannabis-focused Innovative Industrial Properties (NYSE:IIPR) hits all the checkmarks to be considered a great dividend stock. Let's take a close look at not just the company's dividend, but the strength of Innovative's overall operations, to assess whether you should invest in the company today.
Innovative's dividend yield of 3.5% is well above average
Currently, Innovative pays its shareholders a quarterly dividend of $1.06. At a price of about $120 per share, the stock's yielding a little over 3.5% today. If you were to invest in an average stock on the S&P 500, your yield would be closer to 2%. That's a big difference, and it's easier to see when you put it into dollars. A $25,000 investment at a 2% yield would earn you $500 each year. But at a rate of 3.5%, you'd be earning $875, or an extra $275 annually. Imagine you hold the dividend stock for 10 years, and you're now looking at a difference of $2,750. And that's without factoring in any dividend growth along the way.
Innovative has increased its dividend payments by more than 300% in just two years
Even if a dividend stock pays a decent yield today, you also want to consider its growth. If the dividend isn't increasing over the years, that means inflation will erode your payouts over time. Innovative is a real estate investment trust (REIT), meaning it has to pay 90% of its earnings back out to its shareholders. As long as profits continue to rise, so too will the company's dividend payments.
Innovative has been growing its dividend rapidly in recent years. Just two years ago, the San Diego-based company was paying its shareholders a quarterly dividend of $0.25. Payouts have more than quadrupled in value since then, rising 324%. The company's most recent rate hike, from $1.00 to $1.06, is a modest 6% increase and likely much more sustainable over the long term, if investors are wondering what type of increase might be more typical in the future.
However, there are never any guarantees when it comes to dividends. Investors always need to be prepared in the event that a rate hike doesn't happen, or is not as high as they had hoped. For now, at least, Innovative looks like a solid dividend growth stock.
Is Innovative's dividend safe?
On Aug. 5, Innovative released its second-quarter results for fiscal 2020, recording sales of $24.3 million. That's a year-over-year increase of 183% from the prior-year period, when its sales were $8.6 million. The big jump comes primarily as a result of Innovative acquiring and leasing out more properties than it had a year ago.
Since April, Innovative acquired a total of eight properties with rentable square footage totaling 775,000. At the end of June, Innovative owned 58 properties with a total of 4.4 million rentable square feet. A year ago, the company owned just 22 properties, and its rentable square footage then was 1.7 million.
Innovative's strategy involves acquiring distressed assets in the cannabis industry and then leasing them back to marijuana companies. It's been working well for the business and has helped generate strong streams of income. In Q2, Innovative recorded funds from operations (FFO) of $19.7 million -- up 321% from a year ago. FFO is a common substitute for net income when evaluating REITs, as it can give a better picture of the company's overall performance when factoring out depreciation and other adjustments.
FFO per share was $1.12 in Q2, and that suggests that Innovative's quarterly dividend of $1.06 is well supported by the company's current operations.
The dividend is great
With above-average payouts that have increased rapidly in recent years and some impressive sales and profit growth, Innovative checks off all the boxes of a great dividend stock and then some. And with more states potentially legalizing cannabis this year, there may be many more growth opportunities for Innovative to continue adding properties to its portfolio in the near future.
Year to date, the stock's been soaring above not just the Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences ETF (OTC:HMLS.F) but also the S&P 500:
Its incredible growth, along with a top dividend, makes Innovative an appealing investment to add to your portfolio today and hang on to for many years as the cannabis industry continues to expand.
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Danaher - >>> Beckman Coulter Launches SARS-CoV-2 IgM Antibody Test and will begin shipping to U.S. Diagnostics Labs
PR Newswire
August 24, 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/beckman-coulter-launches-sars-cov-120000191.html
Serology test has confirmed 99.9% specificity and 98.3% sensitivity at 15-30 days post-symptom onset and measures antibodies to the receptor binding domain of the spike protein
IgM assay has 95.51% positive predictive value even when disease incidence is only 3%
BREA, Calif., Aug. 24, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Beckman Coulter, a clinical diagnostics leader, today announced the launch of its Access SARS-CoV-2 Immunoglobulin M (IgM) assay. The new IgM antibody test demonstrated 99.9% specificity against 1,400 negative samples and 98.3% sensitivity at 15-30 days post-symptom onset. Of the tests developed by the top four in vitro diagnostic manufacturers capable of delivering high-volume testing to the U.S., Beckman Coulter's test is the only SARS-CoV-2 IgM assay which targets antibodies that recognize the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein which SARS-CoV-2 uses to bind to a human cell receptor. This is significant as antibodies which target the RBD have the potential to be neutralizing and thus prevent future infection by blocking the virus from entering the cell.
"Our new SARS-CoV-2 IgM assay provides information about an individual's immune status with a positive predicative value of 95.5% in a population with disease incidence as low as 3%," said Julie Sawyer Montgomery, president of Beckman Coulter. "As COVID-19 outbreaks continue to grow in intensity in many of our communities, highly accurate tests such as this are critical for providing reliable information for both individual health decisions as well as population-based immunity monitoring."
Shamiram Feinglass, M.D., MPH, chief medical officer for Beckman Coulter, added, "At a time when a number of regions around the country are experiencing long wait times for testing due to shortages of molecular diagnostics (RT-PCR testing), antibody testing may play a key role in helping physicians determine if their patients have had a recent infection. Recent studies have identified asymptomatic individuals with a negative PCR test and a positive IgM test1 suggesting these patients may have had a low viral load or provided inadequate PCR samples. A positive IgM antibody test may help physicians identify some of these patients who received a false negative PCR result and should self-isolate until a follow up PCR test can be administered."
It has recently been reported that there are a number of states experiencing shortages of molecular diagnostics for the novel coronavirus, as well as backlogs on their analyzers due to high demand as infection rates surge. The Access SARS-CoV-2 IgM assay can help to alleviate this issue, as it helps to identify patients with an immune response to SARS-CoV-2.
Beckman Coulter's new IgM assay is part of a suite of testing solutions the company is offering to guide clinical and public health decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic. The company developed separate SARS-CoV-2 IgM and SARS-CoV-2 Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody assays to better help clinicians determine a patient's immune status in response to a recent or past infection. The Beckman Coulter IgM assay detects antibodies that may emerge earlier in the course of infection and then dissipate, while the IgG test detects antibodies associated with the longer-term immune response. Both IgM and IgG assays can identify antibodies in asymptomatic individuals, and since each person's seroconversion process is different, the two tests can be used together to provide the most accurate view into their immune response.
Beckman Coulter is also developing a SARS-CoV-2 quantitative IgG assay, antigen test and currently awaiting FDA Emergency Use Authorization for its interleukin 6 (IL-6) assay. Additionally, Beckman Coulter offers a biomarker that measures monocyte distribution width (MDW), which can be used as an aid in the early detection of sepsis in adult patients presenting to the emergency department. Earlier this year, the company announced that it received government funding to develop a machine learning algorithm to help accurately predict and detect sepsis in COVID-19 patients leveraging its MDW test. The quantitative IgG, antigen, IL-6 and MDW tests, along with the IgG and IgM assays, could provide valuable information in clinical decision making for patients suffering from COVID-19.
"COVID-19 presents as a complex, multi-system disease which requires multiple diagnostic tests to help monitor the disease progression of patients across multiple care settings," continued Sawyer Montgomery. "Our organization is working tirelessly to provide a multitude of high quality tests that help clinicians not only learn about each patient's disease status, but also the disease pathology of SARS-CoV-2 as a whole."
In many parts of the country, diagnostic labs are under immense pressure to be more efficient to meet testing demands. Beckman Coulter's assays can be performed in manual, automated or high-throughput immunoassay formats. The Access SARS-CoV-2 IgM test can also be run on Beckman Coulter's Access 2 analyzer, a compact, table-top analyzer enabling high-quality serology testing to be carried out in small hospitals and clinics. Additionally, this test seamlessly integrates into laboratory workflows making it easy to add serology testing to routine blood tests performed during inpatient and wellness testing.
With the ability to begin delivering more than 15 million tests each month, the company can meet the global demands of its installed customer base including more than 16,000 immunoassay analyzers worldwide, 3,500 of which are in the United States. For more information on Beckman Coulter's suite of testing solutions or its commitment to the fight against COVID-19, visit: www.BeckmanCoulter.com/Coronavirus.
About the Access SARS-CoV-2 IgM Assay
The Access SARS-CoV-2 IgM Assay is a qualitative immunoassay that detects IgM antibodies. The test has confirmed 98.3% positive percent agreement (sensitivity) at 15-30 days post symptom onset and 99.9% negative percent agreement (specificity). The assay utilizes an immunocapture format to bind patient IgM antibodies on the magnetic particle solid phase and a recombinant SARS-CoV-2 protein - enzyme conjugate to detect anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM. The Access SARS-CoV-2 IgM assay can be used in Random Access Mode (RAM), which means that the antibody tests can be run along with other immunoassay tests. The assay can also be used with a variety of Beckman Coulter analyzers, including the high-throughput DxI 800 designed for large labs, to the DxI 600 for mid-sized labs and the DxC 600i and Access 2 analyzers for smaller labs and healthcare clinics.
About Beckman Coulter
Beckman Coulter is committed to advancing healthcare for every person by applying the power of science, technology and the passion and creativity of our teams to enhance the diagnostic laboratory's role in improving healthcare outcomes. Our diagnostic systems are used in complex biomedical testing, and are found in hospitals, reference laboratories and physician office settings around the globe. Beckman Coulter offers a unique combination of people, processes and solutions designed to elevate the performance of clinical laboratories and healthcare networks. We do this by accelerating care with a menu that matters, bringing the benefit of automation to all, delivering greater insights through clinical informatics and unlocking hidden value through performance partnership. An operating company of Danaher Corporation (NYSE: DHR) since 2011, Beckman Coulter is headquartered in Brea, Calif., and has more than 11,000 global associates working diligently to make the world a healthier place.
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>>> Else Nutrition Announces a Second Full-Scale Manufacturing Run and On-boarding of Retail Brokers for North American Launch
ACCESSWIRE
August 20, 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/else-nutrition-announces-second-full-110000217.html
VANCOUVER, BC / ACCESSWIRE / August 20, 2020 / ELSE NUTRITION HOLDINGS INC. (TSXV:BABY)(OTCQB:BABYF) (FSE:0YL) ("Else" or the "Company"), a developer of plant-based alternatives to dairy-based baby nutrition, is pleased to provide an update on its North American product launch of its plant-based Toddler Nutrition product.
Else has engaged with additional retail brokers in order to bring the product to the shelves of natural food retailers (independent and retail chains), and to regional grocers. As a result of the engagements Else now has broker representation covering the entire U.S. West Coast, Arizona and Nevada, and the north East and Mid-Atlantic regions. Additionally, the Company hired a specialized broker for one of the largest U.S. retail chains with 1000 plus stores and a significant share in the baby food space.
Additionally, Else has commenced a second commercial manufacturing run. This manufacturing run will be 300% larger than the initial production run. As a result, Else will generate additional inventory to service the Company's expansion in the U.S. market by adding retail presence and increasing its capacity to generate online sales.
"We are very excited by the early response to our long awaited product launch and equally pleased to have to ramp up our inventory as we continue to see strong demand for our novel, clean-label, plant-based Toddler Nutrition product," said Ms. Hamutal Yitzhak, CEO and Co-Founder of Else. "We are grateful for the overwhelming positive daily feedback from parents all over North America and look forward to bringing the product to store shelves soon."
Else has completed the setup and order automation processes by signing up with a third-party logistics company. This company has warehouses across the U.S. and Canada which will support Else's e-commerce sales. Online order shipments have already commenced.
Else Nutrition's Plant-Based Complete Nutrition for Toddlers & Babies (12+ mo.) is now available for sale on Else's e-store at elsenutrition.com, and will soon be available on Amazon.com. Consumers can order single 22 oz cans and 4-packs.
About Else Nutrition Holdings Inc.
Else Nutrition GH Ltd. is an Israel-based food and nutrition company focused on developing innovative, clean and plant-based food and nutrition products for infants, toddlers, children, and adults. Its revolutionary, plant-based, non-soy, formula is a clean-ingredient alternative to dairy-based formula. Else Nutrition (formerly INDI) won the "2017 Best Health and Diet Solutions" award at the Global Food Innovation Summit in Milan. The holding company, Else Nutrition Holdings Inc., is a publicly traded company, listed as TSX Venture Exchange under the trading symbol BABY and is quoted on the US OTC Markets QX board under the trading symbol BABYF and on the Frankfurt Exchange under the symbol 0YL. Else's Executives includes leaders hailing from leading infant nutrition companies. Many of Else advisory board members had past executive roles in companies such as Mead Johnson, Abbott Nutrition, Plum Organics and leading infant nutrition Societies, and some of them currently serve in different roles in leading medical centers and academic institutes such as Boston Children's Hospital, Pediatrics at Harvard Medical School, USA, Tel Aviv University, Schneider Children's Medical Center of Israel, Rambam Medical Center and Technion, Israel and University Hospital Brussels, Belgium.
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Fortress Value (FVAC) - >>> Electric Vehicles, U.S.-China Trade and Commodities: Play Them All With 1 Stock.
Barron's
By Nicholas Jasinski and Al Root
July 20, 2020
https://www.barrons.com/articles/electric-vehicles-china-rare-earth-minerals-commodities-trade-spacs-merger-51595276024?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Electric-vehicle fever, U.S.-China geopolitics, commodity cycles, and special-purpose acquisition companies. A coming merger—that of Fortress Value Acquisition Corp. and MP Materials, an owner and operator of North America’s largest rare-earths mineral mine—will produce a stock that investors can use to play all of those forces.
Fortress Value (ticker: FVAC) is a special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, backed by private-equity firm Fortress Investment Group. It announced an agreement last week to combine with privately held MP, valuing the miner at about $1 billion before proceeds. The deal will provide MP with the $345 million in the SPAC’s trust, in addition to $200 million from a private investment in public equity, or PIPE, from investors including Social Capital-founder Chamath Palihapitiya and Leon Cooperman’s Omega Advisors. After expenses, the cash will largely go to MP’s balance sheet to be invested in its next stage of growth.
This is a group of sophisticated investors putting real money into MP Materials, which will effectively go public through the transaction.
MP, which refers to the Mountain Pass mine in California, doesn’t produce just any old commodity. Rare-earth metals are 17 obscure elements at the bottom of the periodic table that show up in a variety of industrial, military, and technology applications. Rare earths include elements with strange names such as cerium, praseodymium, and neodymium, as well as superconductor component yttrium.
From time to time, rare earths come up in trade and economic-security arguments, because China dominates the market, producing about 60% of the global total. That is a large share, but rare earths are, well, rare. That 60% amounts to about 132,000 tons, a relatively insignificant quantity in the context of the global economy. The world’s production of copper—not even the metal in widest use—is about 20 million tons annually. The rarity makes them a factor in geopolitical calculations. U.S. officials have more than once referred to China’s heft in the rare-earths supply chain as a strategic threat.
The Mountain Pass site’s recent history involves now-defunct Molycorp, which began investing hundreds of millions of dollars in the mine around 2010. The timing was fortuitous for the fledgling company: Rare-earth metal pricing spiked in 2011 after China restricted exports. But trade restrictions eventually eased, prices fell, and Molycorp ended up filing for bankruptcy in 2015.
MP Materials was founded by part of the creditor group in the Molycorp bankruptcy restructuring. New owners can often acquire capital assets at a discount after the original operator goes bankrupt. That is what happened to satellite communications operator Iridium (IRDM). Also, Tesla (TSLA) bought its U.S. plant in Fremont, Calif., at a discount from General Motors (GM) during the financial crisis.
The growth of Tesla and other EV pioneers are also part of the MP story, but for a different, more important reason. Tesla is now the world’s most valuable car company, dwarfing century-old car makers such as GM, Ford Motor (F), and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU). It has convinced investors that electric vehicles are the future. Nikola (NKLA), Fisker (SPAQ), and Hyliion (SHLL) have jumped on the trend, and are developing electric and hybrid cars and trucks. Each has merged or is planning to merge with a SPAC to go public.
But electricity-powered vehicles can’t move without high-end electric motors, which use magnets with rare-earth metals in them. Electric cars, with less than 2% global penetration of new-car sales in 2019, amounted to about 9% of total demand for MP’s rare-earth materials last year. That penetration of the global car market is expected to increase substantially in coming years, as consumers warm to the technology and governments around the world set EV targets.
James Litinsky is MP Materials’ chairman, and will also become CEO once the transaction closes later this year. He likens MP’s relationship with the EV developers as the entrepreneurs selling pickaxes and shovels to miners in the California gold rush of the mid 19th century. All EVs need electric motors, which need rare-earth elements for the magnets that make them work.
“Regardless of which EV company or battery technology wins out, we believe that rare-earth magnets are the best way to play electrification,” Litinsky says.
It might be, but MP doesn’t benefit directly from EV penetration any more than Alcoa (AA) benefits from the increasing use of aluminum in car bodies. But both companies indirectly benefit as the overall demand for the underlying commodities grows.
Growth is important for pricing and volumes and stock market success, but a miner and chemical processor are still in the commodity business. That means supply-demand dynamics are key. Being a low-cost producer is the best sustainable advantage. MP believes it has that moat, by virtue of having high ore grades, which require less work to get the same amount of metal. A 10% ore grade, for instance, requires 10 tons of material to be moved and processed to get a ton of salable product. A 5% ore grade means a miner is digging up and processing 20 tons of material for the same sales. More processing means more cost.
MP says its ore grade is about 8%. Lynas (LYC.Australia), an Australian rare-earth miner worth roughly $1 billion, says its ore grade at a key project is about 8% as well.
Ore grade is one part of the value equation, along with product mix. Right now, MP sends a concentrated ore to China for final processing. Management’s plan is to take the new capital from the SPAC merger and produce a finished product in the U.S. That would mean higher sales and margins than currently realized.
Business isn’t bad now, and it is cash-flow positive—not something that can be said about many of the newly public EV ventures. MP reported $10 million in adjusted Ebitda, short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and taxes, during the first quarter. The company’s financial projections estimate $250 million in Ebitda by 2023, after the new processing plant is completed. Materials companies in the S&P 500 typically trade for about 10 to 11 times estimated next year’s Ebitda.
The deal with Fortress Value includes an earn-out for the sponsor shares in the SPAC, meaning that the postmerger stock price needs to rise to certain levels before sponsors can benefit. Half of Fortress Value’s 8.6 million postmerger shares—about 23% of the total—will now vest at $12, a quarter at $14, and a quarter at $16. That will reduce dilution for other shareholders, and underlines the fact that Fortress Value believes in the long-term potential of MP Materials, or else it wouldn’t have agreed to the earn-out.
A common fault for many SPACs is that sponsors can have more incentive to get any deal done than getting a good deal done. Fortress Value’s tweak to its sponsor shares is designed to address that criticism directly, and is a good sign for investors.
“When people talk with SPACs, the promote tends to be the elephant in the room,” says Andrew McKnight, CEO of Fortress Value and a managing partner at Fortress. “We wanted to get rid of that, and show that we really do believe in this asset.”
MP Materials’ current owners are also rolling over their entire stakes into the combined company rather than using it as a chance to cash out, another promising signal for investors.
Fortress Value stock spiked 10% on Wednesday after the deal announcement, but fell back slightly on Thursday and closed on Friday at $10.93. Shares rose 3.6% to $11.32 on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up less than 0.1% and the S&P 500 gained 0.8%.
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Global Clean Energy Holdings (GCEH) - >>> Oil Refiners Are Being Forced To Adapt Or Die
MarketWatch
Aug. 17, 2020
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/oil-refiners-are-being-forced-to-adapt-or-die-2020-08-17-61974549?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts&tesla=y
Aug 17, 2020 (Baystreet.ca via COMTEX) -- The International Energy Agency this week revised down its gasoline and jet fuel demand forecast for the rest of the year. In seemingly unrelated news, Philips 66 said that it is turning a San Francisco refinery into a biofuels plant. In separate news, Shell said it would permanently shutter a refinery in the Philippines. These news stories only seem unrelated at first glance. A deeper look shows they point to a changing industry. Refiners were among the worst-hit oil and gas industry segments in this crisis. Usually making their money from the price difference between crude oil and oil derivatives, this time refiners could rely on the usual stable demand for oil derivatives. The coronavirus pandemic slashed oil product demand and, consequently, refiners' margins.
Now, more than ever, refiners need to change to survive.
Consolidation and closures: this was what analysts expected would happen in the downstream industry as a result of the pandemic. It is already happening. Besides Shell, Marathon Petroleum earlier this month said it would idle permanently two refineries with a combined capacity of over 180,000 bpd of crude oil. More will likely follow: despite a strong rebound in gasoline demand in many parts of the world, jet fuel demand is yet to recover. This means the revenues associated with jet fuel sales will be non-existent for another year or two, or possibly more.
In this context, Philips 66's plan to close its Santa Maria refinery and transform the Rodeo refinery into what it says would be the world's largest renewable biodiesel plant makes perfect sense, especially when you add to the equation increasingly stringent fuel standards, particularly in California.
The state plans to reduce carbon emissions from transport by 20 percent over the 20 years from 2010 and 2030, the Wall Street Journal's Rebecca Elliott wrote earlier this week. This offers a strong incentive for refiners to switch to biofuels, and this incentive is crucial for such transformation. On the wider national market, renewable diesel fuel, a fuel produced from various waste oils, which is what Philips 66 will be making at the Rodeo refinery, only makes up about 1 percent of total diesel sales. Yet it seems California would be a lucrative market for it, as Marathon Petroleum and HollyFrontier also have renewable diesel plans for some of their refineries.
But California is just a single market, one might note, not enough to drive the transformation of a whole industry. Accurate as this may be, it is also a growing biodiesel market. None other than Exxon recently inked a renewable diesel supply deal with a company called Global Clean Energy Holdings, under which the supermajor will buy 2.5 million barrels of renewable diesel annually starting in 2022 to sell on the California market and other markets as well. California may be a single market, but it happens to be the world's largest market for renewable diesel. And it is giving away generous subsidies to biodiesel producers.
These developments suggest the pandemic's unprecedented effect on the oil and gas industry as a whole has made sector players wary of more nasty surprises and quick to snap up opportunities as they present themselves. At least, it has made some of them wary and ready to act sooner rather than later. Although many believe the worst is now over and the demand recovery refrain is frequently playing across headlines, all authorities that issue forecasts on oil and gas supply and demand have their own refrain: uncertainty remains; the future is unclear. Some will change and survive. Many will not.
So, besides biofuels plants, how are the refineries of the post-pandemic future likely to look? According to a Wood Mackenzie report from earlier this year, these will be complex facilities with a strong bend to petrochemicals. This is actually a continuation of an already present trend: with demand for crude oil as fuel expected to decline under pressure from EVs and other alternative fuels, petrochemicals are expected by many to become at some point the main profit-maker for refiners.
This future may not be even on the horizon yet as EV sales continue to only make a tiny part of total car sales, but the industry is preparing as governments step up their efforts to cut emissions. These changing fuel demand patterns, as well as the pandemic, have created a refining capacity excess. This excess will either have to be shut down or be repurposed, as a Stratas Advisers analyst told Bloomberg this week. There appears to be no third option, namely a strong recovery in oil demand and equally strong growth in this demand going forward. The adapt-and-survive imperative in refining says, "Convert or shut down your excess capacity".
There will continue to be demand for oil products, of course, including gasoline and diesel, for a long time to come. Demand could even begin growing from pre-pandemic levels at some point, depending on how the world handles the virus. But this is a doubtful scenario. It would be safer to prepare for one that is much more likely: another lower for longer, this time in fuels.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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>>> GrowGeneration Reports Record Financial Results Q2 2020
PR Newswire
August 13, 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/growgeneration-reports-record-financial-results-110000282.html
Record Revenues of $43.5 Million, Adjusted EBITDA of $4.6 Million and Net Income of $2.6 Million
2020 Revenue Guidance Increased to $170-$175M
Adjusted EBITDA Guidance for 2020 is $17.0-$18.0M
GAAP Net Income Guidance for 2020 is $7.0-$8.0M
2021 Revenue Guidance Set at $245-$260M
Adjusted EBITDA Guidance for 2021 is $26.0-$28.0M
DENVER, CO, Aug. 13, 2020 /PRNewswire/ - GrowGeneration Corp. (NASDAQ: GRWG), ("GrowGen" or the "Company"), the largest chain of specialty hydroponic and organic garden centers, with currently 28 locations, today reported record revenues of $43.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $4.6 million for Q2 2020. Q2 2020 was the Company's 10th consecutive quarter of record revenues. The Company also reported record GAAP net income of approximately $2.6 million for Q2 2020 compared to net income of $1.1 Million for Q2 2019. As we continue to outpace guidance, we are increasing 2020 revenue guidance to $170M-$175M and Adjusted EBITDA to $17.0M-$18.0M. Revenue guidance for 2021 is $245M-$260M. Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2021 is $26M-$28M.
GrowGeneration Reports Record Financial Results Q2 2020
Record Revenues of $43.5 Million, Adjusted EBITDA of $4.6 Million and Net Income of $2.6 Million (CNW Group/GrowGeneration)
GrowGeneration Reports Record Financial Results Q2 2020 Record Revenues of $43.5 Million, Adjusted EBITDA of $4.6 Million and Net Income of $2.6 Million (CNW Group/GrowGeneration)
More
Financial Highlights for 2nd Quarter 2020 compared to 2nd Quarter 2019
Revenues up 123% to $43.5 million for Q2 2020 vs $19.5 million for Q2 2019
Same store sales were $25.1 million for Q2 2020 vs $16.9 million for Q2 2019, a 49% increase
Adjusted EBITDA of $4.6 million for Q2 2020 vs $1.7 million for Q2 2019, an increase of 166%, $.12 per share, basic
Gross profit margin % for Q2 2020 was 26.7% vs 29.9% for Q2 2020
Gross profit was $11.6 million for Q2 2020 vs $5.8 million for Q2 2019, an increase of 99%
Store operating costs as a percentage of sales was 9.2% for Q2 2020 vs 14% for Q2 2019, a decrease of 34%
Income from store operations was $7.6 million for Q2 2020 vs $3.1 million for Q2 2019, an increase of 146%
Income from store operations as a percentage of revenue was 17.5% for Q2 2020 vs 15.8% for Q2 2019
Corp Payroll and G&A as a percentage of revenue was 7.2% for Q2 2020 vs 7% for Q2 2019
GAAP net income per share, basic, was $.07 for Q2 2020 vs $.04 for Q2 2019
GAAP net income was $2.6 million for Q2 2020 vs net income of $1.1 million for Q2 2019 2020
Working Capital and Cash
Working capital was $35.2 million on June 30, 2020 vs $30.6 million at December 31, 2019
Cash on June 30, 2020 is $14.8 million, cash on December 31, 2019 was $12.98 million, and cash as of August 12, 2020 was $59.3 million
Proceeds from the sale of common stock and warrants was $282,000 for Q2 2020
On July 2, 2020, the Company completed the offering of 8,625,000 shares of its common stock generating $48.3 million in gross proceeds before deducting the underwriting discounts and commissions and other offering expenses. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. acted as the sole book-running manager for the Offering. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. and Lake Street Capital Markets, LLC acted as co-managers for the Offering
Recent Events
May 12, 2020, we opened our Store Support Center in Denver, CO
On June 16, 2020, the Company purchased the assets of H2O Hydroponics LLC. located in West Lansing, MI, creating a 15,000 sq. ft., $8.0 million operation in West Lansing, MI.
On June 29, 2020 GrowGeneration was added to the Russell 3000Ò Index
On July 2,2020 Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. acted as the sole book-running manager and closed on a $48.3 million Offering. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. and Lake Street Capital Markets, LLC were acting as co-managers for the Offering
The Company surpassed $100 million in year-to-date revenues on August 10, 2020
On August 10,2020, the Company purchased the assets of Emerald City Garden, located in Concord, CA
On August 12, 2020, the Company entered into a partnership with Whole Cites Foundation, committing to donate free product to develop urban farms across the US
Darren Lampert, Co-Founder and CEO, said, "The Company's Q2 2020 record financial results reflect our continued focus on revenue growth and EBITDA expansion. Q2 2020 is the Company's 10th consecutive quarter of record revenues. Revenues were up 123% for Q2 2020 versus Q2 2019, to $43.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $4.6 million for Q2 2020 compared to $1.7 million for Q2 2019, an increase of 166% or $.12 per share, basic. Our same store sales were up 49% for the period Q2 2020 versus Q2 2019. Income from store operations was $7.6 million for Q2 2020 vs $3.1 million for Q2 2019, an increase of 146%.
Our online business increased by 149%, Q2 2020 versus Q2 2019. Our commercial division generated over $9.0 million in revenues, an increase of 142% Q2 2020 versus Q2 2019. The Company added 167 new commercial customer accounts from Q1, 2020 to Q2 2020 and now services over 700 commercial accounts. We continue to see strong demand for our products that include LED lights, nutrients, additives, soils and other products that outfit and feed grower's gardens. Our Sunleaves private-label nutrient and additives line of product is now generating over $100,000 a month in sales. Our weekly walk-in transactions are now 10,000, an increase of 50 %, quarter over quarter. On June 16, the Company successfully acquired H2O Hydroponics LLC, and consolidated it with our West Lansing operations into a new 15,000 sq. ft. super hydroponic garden center. The Company believes that the combined business will generate over $8.0 million in annual revenues in 2020.
Our mergers and acquisitions pipeline is the most active it has been since our inception. We have set a corporate goal to reach 50 stores and 15 states in 2021.
On July 2, 2020 we closed on a $48 million upsized follow-on public offering with Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. acting as the sole book-running manager for the Offering. Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. Inc. and Lake Street Capital Markets, LLC acted as co-managers for the Offering. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the Offering primarily to expand its network of hydroponic/garden centers through organic growth and acquisitions, and for general corporate purposes.
On June 29, 2020, we were added to the Russell 3000® Index. We believe our Russell 3000 listing will increase long-term shareholder value by improving awareness, liquidity and appeal to institutional investors.
While we take this opportunity to announce our quarterly earnings, we are mindful of the COVID-19 plight which is besieging society, leaving no one unaffected. We are thankful for the dedication of health care workers and first responders, as well as the essential workers who are keeping our communities running.
As a result of our first-rate preparedness, all of our personnel have been working since mid-March with complete effectiveness. I have been inspired by the efforts and dedication of GrowGen's team as they have worked tirelessly to service our customers and communities.
The economic road ahead will challenge all businesses, but GrowGen's strong Executive Team, balance sheet and amazing employees put us on excellent footing to overcome adversity.
As we continue to monitor the COVID-19 situation, GrowGen is considered an "essential" supplier to the agricultural industry, suppling the nutrients and nourishment required to feed their plants. Accordingly, we are open during this difficult time and will remain open for the foreseeable future. We have plans and procedures in place to ensure our customers and employees stay safe during this time of uncertainty. All of us at GrowGeneration remain committed to the safety and well-being of our customers and employees and send our prayers and thoughts to all in the growing community.
GrowGeneration has partnered with Whole Cities Foundation and has committed to donate free product to local communities and their urban farms that have been severely affected."
Annual Guidance for 2020 and 2021
Full year 2020
Sales $170M-$175M
Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2020 increased to $17.0M-$18.0M
GAAP pre-tax net income guidance set at $7M-$8M.
Full Year 2021
Sales $245M-$260M.
Adjusted EBITDA for 2021 is $26.0M-$28.0M.
Conference Call
The company will host a conference call on Thursday, August 13, 2020 at 9:00AM Eastern Time.
Participant Dial-In Numbers:
Toll-Free: (+1) 888-664-6383
*Participants should request the GrowGeneration Earnings Call or provide confirmation code: 28032517
About GrowGeneration Corp.:
GrowGen owns and operates specialty retail hydroponic and organic gardening stores. Currently, GrowGen has 28 stores, which include 5 locations in Colorado, 6 locations in California, 2 locations in Nevada, 1 location in Washington, 4 locations in Michigan, 1 location in Rhode Island, 4 locations in Oklahoma, 1 location in Oregon, 3 locations in Maine and 1 location in Florida. GrowGen also operates an online superstore for cultivators, located at www.growgen.pro and www.growgeneration.com. GrowGen carries and sells thousands of products, including organic nutrients and soils, advanced lighting technology and state of the art hydroponic equipment to be used indoors and outdoors by commercial and home growers. Our mission is to own and operate GrowGeneration branded stores in all the major states in the US and Canada. Management estimates that roughly 1,000 hydroponic stores are in operation in the US. By 2025, the global hydroponics system market is estimated to reach approximately $16 billion.
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>>> GrowGeneration Corp. Acquires Concord, CA Based Emerald City Garden
PR Newswire
August 11, 2020
Adds 28th Store, Expands Northern CA Footprint
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/growgeneration-corp-acquires-concord-ca-120000199.html
DENVER, Aug. 11, 2020 /PRNewswire/ - GrowGeneration Corp. (NASDAQ: GRWG), ("GrowGen" or the "Company") the largest chain of specialty hydroponic and organic garden centers, with currently 27 locations, is pleased to announce that the company has purchased the assets of Emerald City Garden located in Concord, CA. Concord is located in the " green zone". With the acquisition of Emerald City Garden, GrowGen opens up the East Bay region. Emerald City Garden has been in business since 2012 and is one of the largest hydroponic operations in the region, with 2020 sales estimated to be approximately $4.0 million.
CEO Comments:
Darren Lampert, GrowGeneration CEO stated, "The Emerald City Garden acquisition is our 3rd in 2020,adding a strong team and customer base to our portfolio of hydroponic garden centers. Emerald City Garden, located approximately an hour outside of Oakland and San Francisco, strategically positions GrowGen to capture commercial growers and increase revenue through its sales, marketing and purchasing post our acquisition."
California Market and Projections:
In 2019, legal sales of adult-use cannabis in California topped $2.8 billion.
By 2022, the legal adult-use cannabis market in California is projected to jump to $5 billion – boosted significantly by California's recreational cannabis market. The California cannabis industry's total economic impact could be nearly $10 billion.
As of January 2020, California has issued over 10,000 commercial cannabis licenses. There are 7,551 active licenses, including 4,220 cultivators, 987 manufactures and 910 retailers, delivery services, 944 distributors, 243 microbusinesses, 129 transporters, 86 event organizers and 32 testing laboratories.
About GrowGeneration Corp.:
GrowGen owns and operates specialty retail hydroponic and organic gardening stores. Currently, GrowGen has 28 stores, which include 5 locations in Colorado, 6 locations in California, 2 locations in Nevada, 1 location in Washington, 4 locations in Michigan, 1 location in Rhode Island, 4 locations in Oklahoma, 1 location in Oregon, 3 locations in Maine and 1 location in Florida. GrowGen also operates an online superstore for cultivators, located at www.growgen.pro and www.growgeneration.com. GrowGen carries and sells thousands of products, including organic nutrients and soils, advanced lighting technology and state of the art hydroponic equipment to be used indoors and outdoors by commercial and home growers. Our mission is to own and operate GrowGeneration branded stores in all the major states in the US and Canada. Management estimates that roughly 1,000 hydroponic stores are in operation in the US. By 2025, the global hydroponics system market is estimated to reach approximately $16 billion.
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>>> Hain Celestial's (HAIN) Transformation Strategy Bodes Well
Zacks
July 7, 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hain-celestials-hain-transformation-strategy-225810092.html
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. HAIN appears strong on its sturdy transformational efforts. Its transformation strategy is aimed at simplifying portfolio, identifying additional areas of productivity savings, enhancing margins and improving cash flow. Strength in the company’s Project Terra and Stock Keeping Unit (“SKU”) rationalization also bodes well. Impressively, the natural and organic foods company’s shares have appreciated 42.4% in a year, against its industry’s 3.7% decline. A VGM Score of B further speaks of potentials of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock.
Let’s Explore
As part of its transformation efforts, Hain Celestial remains on track to simplify its business to focus on high-growth areas like core packaged-foods business. The company’s transformation strategy is adding to its solid quarterly performance, and such efforts are expected to help the company continue delivering robust margin performances.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2020, adjusted gross margin expanded 282 basis points (“bps”) to 24.3%, thanks to productivity efforts that resulted in lower supply-chain expenses. While adjusted operating margin rose 120 bps to 5.8%, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 199 bps to 11%.
Additionally, Hain Celestial is on track with Project Terra, which is aimed at identifying global cost savings and cutting complexity. It expects to generate total cost savings worth $350 million through fiscal 2020 and remove complexity from business. To achieve these savings, the company intends to optimize plants, co-packers and procurement, along with rationalizing product portfolio. Meanwhile, the SKU rationalization has helped eliminate SKUs based on lower sales volume or weak margins.
Coming to Hain Celestial’s quarterly performance, the company put up a stellar third-quarter fiscal 2020 performance with a raised view for the fiscal year. In fiscal third quarter, the company delivered its third straight earnings beat and second consecutive positive sales surprise. For fiscal 2020, Hain Celestial expects adjusted EBITDA growth of 15-21% to $190-$200 million compared with the earlier projection of 7-16% growth to $177-$192 million.
Additionally, Hain Celestial envisions adjusted earnings per share of 75-82 cents, which suggests growth of 25-37% from fiscal 2019. Previously, management projected earnings per share of 62-72 cents, which suggested growth of 3-20%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal currently stands at 79 cents.
Given the strong aforesaid factors, we expect Hain Celestial to continue with its robust show in the future.
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>>> Else Nutrition Receives Key Clean Label Certifications Ahead of U.S. Launch of Toddler Nutrition Product
CNW Group
July 7, 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/else-nutrition-receives-key-clean-110000630.html
Plant-based, Clean Label and Soy-Free Certifications Granted
VANCOUVER, BC , July 7, 2020 /CNW/ - ELSE NUTRITION HOLDINGS INC. (BABY.V) (BABYF) (0YL.F) ("Else" or the "Company"), is pleased to announce that its novel, plant-based complete nutrition product for toddlers has received multiple key certifications.
Following successful production, consultations and reviews, the toddler nutrition product is now certified by the following leading independent organizations:
The Clean Label ProjectTM for being a certified clean label product.
NSF International (owned by the Plant-Based Foods Association) for being a Certified Plant-based product.
Beyond Soy for being certified as a soy-free product.
The certifying organizations apply independent and rigorous testing to ensure their certification meets a standard which enables transparency with respect to food and consumer product labelling and to preserve public health and safety for U.S. consumers.
Attaining these product certificates demonstrates Else's commitment towards creating and providing safe, clean label, plant-based, dairy-free and soy-free nutrition products.
This month, customers in the U.S. will be able to pre-order the full-sized Else Nutrition Plant-Based Complete Nutrition for Toddlers on the Else e-store at: www.elsenutrition.com.
"We are excited to be continuing on our pathway to commercialization. Obtaining these certifications is a major step as we prepare for our U.S. launch. This independent validation of our clean label product is a critical element of our go to market strategy and positioning," said Ms. Hamutal Yitzhak , CEO and Co-Founder of Else.
About Else Nutrition Holdings Inc.
Else Nutrition GH Ltd. is an Israel -based food and nutrition company focused on developing innovative, clean and plant-based food and nutrition products for infants, toddlers, children, and adults. Its revolutionary, plant-based, non-soy, formula is a clean-ingredient alternative to dairy-based formula. Else Nutrition (formerly INDI) won the "2017 Best Health and Diet Solutions" award at the Global Food Innovation Summit in Milan . The holding company, Else Nutrition Holdings Inc, is a publicly-traded company, listed as TSX Venture Exchange under the trading symbol BABY and is quoted on the US OTC Markets QB board under the trading symbol BABYF and on the Frankfurt Exchange under the symbol 0YL. Else's Executive and Advisory Board includes leaders hailing from Abbott Nutrition, Mead Johnson, Boston Children's Hospital, ESPGHAN (European Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition). Plum Organics, Tel Aviv University's Sackler Faculty of Medicine, and Gastroenterology & Nutrition Institute of RAMBAM Medical Center.
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