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Not great news out last week which explains the drop. Hopefully they don't convert too much at once to disrupt the long term charts because this keeps making higher lows and institutions and insiders keep buying.
Intraday charts look pretty good for a move and the daily chart looks bullish around 2.28, so expect a surge of that switch comes. If it breaks 2.28, I could see it easily running to test the 2.5 area again, at which case, one of these times bears won't be able to hold it down.
Still think she will pop ?
Ipi about to pop imo. Another 2.5 test could be coming soon
Next 2.5 test coming today
I'm thinking three! Once this breaks through the $2.6 region with authority, it will go to new 52w highs. Consolidation above 2 and below 2.5 first, then maybe it'll test 2.5-2.6 area. But once it breaks through definitely I think itll see a whole new trading range become established well above 2.5$ IMO.
I'm thinking too...
FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LTD/ CAN has filed a new 13G, reporting 13.6% ownership in $IPI - https://fintel.io/so/us/ipi
Clearway Capital Management Ltd. has filed a new 13G, reporting 6.96% ownership in $IPI - https://fintel.io/so/us/ipi
Ipi will do very well in long-term as fertilizer stocks will progress as china fert backs off.
IPI consolidating again here at around 2.2-2.3
Charts looks great and has a pretty clear trend line. Could test 3$ soon IMO
Nice bounce off of uptrend. Looking for new highs in the next few days
Here’s One Industry Where the U.S. Is Already Catching China—Fertilizers
Low gas prices are the key factor in a surge in U.S. fertilizer output
By LUCY CRAYMER in Hong Kong and RHIANNON HOYLE in Sydney
Updated Feb. 12, 2017 8:53 p.m. ET
While President Donald Trump vows to reinvigorate struggling American industries and regain ground lost to rivals like China, the process is already under way in the U.S.’s booming fertilizer industry.
U.S. output of urea, a key nitrogen-based fertilizer, surged by around 10% last year, boosted by a number of new and expanded plants in states from Iowa to Louisiana that helped increase total capacity by 24%. Meanwhile, output in China, the world’s No. 1 fertilizer producer, slumped by 7% in 2016, and its exports dropped by more than a third.
These shifting fortunes aren’t due to government intervention such as higher import tariffs or entreaties to “buy American.” Instead, they are largely due to trends in global energy markets.
U.S. fertilizer producers are benefiting from the long-brewing shale revolution. The combination of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling has significantly boosted production, bringing down the cost of gas.
And in the U.S., gas is the key ingredient of nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea—which is mainly applied directly to soils—and ammonia, which is typically mixed with other products, or further refined to make urea.
Meanwhile, their rivals in China have suffered from a sharp rise in the price of coal following Beijing’s decision to limit production last year, restricting normally ample supplies of the fuel. Roughly three-quarters of China’s urea is produced by first turning coal into gas.
U.S. Fertilizer Industry SproutingProduction is growing in the U.S. while China's exports are declining.
Estimates of top global urea capacity additions in 2017
“Low-cost shale gas in the U.S. has transformed the competitiveness of a number of industries for which energy accounts for a high share of input costs,” said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at IHS Global Insight. “One of the biggest winners has been the U.S. chemicals industry.”
The surge in U.S. fertilizer production will likely continue this year, as a number of long-planned new plants—which typically take around four years to build—come online. U.S. ammonia production capacity could jump by 2 million metric tons this year to around 11.4 million metric tons, Rajesh Singla, head of agriculture research at Société Générale, estimates.
Urea production capacity could also rise by 4.1 million metric tons this year, with at least five massive new plants or expansions due to start operating, according to ICIS, a market-information provider, put-ting the U.S. on track to have 50% more capacity by 2020 from 2015.
Illinois-based fertilizer manufacturer CF Industries has just finished one of these projects, an expansion of its Port Neal nitrogen plant in Sioux City, Iowa, the heart of the U.S. cornbelt.
“Given where we viewed the long-term cost of gas in the U.S., we thought this is the right place to invest,” said Chief Executive Tony Will. The plant is expected to produce 816,466 metric tons of ammonia and 1.27 million metric tons of urea annually, employing around 100 people.
As more fertilizer output moved to the U.S., urea imports in 2016 slumped, dropping by 34% last year. Although China remains the largest exporter, its share of global urea production fell to 39% in 2016 from 43% a year earlier, according to CRU Group, a commodities consultancy.
The U.S.’s cost advantage is crucial. Producing a metric ton of urea using gas in the U.S. costs $130 on average, CRU estimates. That same trailer load costs between $180 and $210 a metric ton using anthracite coal in China. Gas makes up about 60% to 80% of production costs, depending on the efficiency of a plant and the price of gas, according to producer OCI Americas Inc.
“Many inefficient [Chinese] plants have quit from the industry…12.6 million [metric] tons of urea capacity have been closed from the industry from 2013 through to 2016,” said Gavin Ju, a senior consultant for CRU in Beijing.
Cheap energy costs have enticed foreign companies like Australia’s Incitec Pivot Ltd., which decided in 2013 to set up an $850 million ammonia plant in Waggaman, La. The plant, which has a capacity of 800,000 metric tons, started operating in October and will ramp up this year.
“Because of the energy advantage through the shale gas revolution, U.S. fertilizer producers are globally among the most competitive,” said Incitec Pivot Chief Executive James Fazzino, who said the Waggaman investment now stacks up even better than when it was approved.
“If the current [Trump] administration delivers on the commitments around energy advantage, cutting unnecessary red tape and developing an attractive taxation environment, that advantage will become even more pronounced,” he said.
Dutch-owned OCI Americas is meantime near completion on a 1.5-million-to-2-million-metric-ton nitrogen fertilizer plant in Wever, Iowa, that alone will increase U.S. urea capacity by more than 10%. Proximity to U.S. customers, primarily the country’s 2.1 million farmers, is another important factor.
“Foreign producers have significant logistical costs to deliver product to the U.S., including ocean and land freight, storage and throughput fees, which can amount to over $100 a [metric] ton depending on the product,” said Ahmed El-Hoshy, chief executive of OCI Americas.
Rising urea prices as Chinese exports decline are another positive for the fertilizer industry.
For sure, higher selling prices, coupled with lower coal prices and a weaker yuan, could reinvigorate Chinese shipments of nitrogen-rich fertilizer into the global market.
Still, U.S. producers should continue enjoying margins better than most rivals elsewhere, keeping the industry boom intact and leading the U.S. to significantly cut its import balance in the years ahead, analysts at Citigroup Inc. said.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/heres-one-industry-where-the-u-s-is-already-catching-chinafertilizers-1486938901
Up trend will be tested tomorrow. Almost guaranteed to go up UNLESS IPI falls flat on its face haha
Consolidation is going fast with these drops. This could rally late today once weak hands are out and bullish divergence occurs
Got worried for a few days in the 1.8$ region but IPI looks very nicely set up. Gap and run tomorrow? Could see 3$...
Does Trump will cut subsidies to farmers...if so half of corn won"t be planted ,so demand will be cut extremely for fertilizers...saludos
What makes you say that?
$IPI think it's about to pop and start the next wave of new highs
Round two about to happen here again. Flushing weak hands
I will keep purchasing until $3 per share....Thank you, come again!
And boom goes the dynamite. Let's see where this closes
$2.55 zone about to break IMO. Run to 3+ coming IMO
ipi is bankrupt dont buy this stock
ipi is bankrupt dont buy this stock
A 200k AH buy yesterday and another 150k today. Chart looks really nice for round two here IMO. Would love to see what would happen if it pushes above 3$
Reversal in progress. Looking nice here
Agreed. Roughly 150k buy in AH
Agreed! IPI is a good stock to buy.
Go IPI $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
If this breaks 2.5 solidly we'll see a run to 3+ easily
IPI a real runner today. Certian materials stocks took off today IPI is one of them. There is a good possibility we could see an extended run. As this is part of the Trump rally.
* * $IPI Video Chart 12-07-16 * *
Link to Video - click here to watch the technical chart video
Agriculture Fertilizer
http://marketrealist.com/analysis/stock-analysis/materials/agriculture-materials/
Weekly Fertilizer Review:
http://farmprogressdaily.com/story-weekly-fertilizer-review-0-30765
I think so too. That's why I started a position today. I'll be buying on Dips.
POT and IPI have basically the same chart pattern. I wanted to be in IPI back in the lower 1.00's.missed it. POT is up near resistance a clear break above $1.45 for IPI is in the same boat.
The biggest potash producer in the USA
Will never go bankrupt
ipi $$$$ 5 dollars a share is the least you can ask for
5 $ a share on the way $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
The Stock Market Could be Underestimating This Company’s Value
http://centsandsense.com/investment/intrepid-potash-1/
By Jason In INVESTMENT, MAKING CENTS 25 Sep 2016
Before going into today’s post, I want to remind you not only about the disclosures of this site, but also that you should always do your own due diligence when making your own investment decisions.
One of the main holdings in my personal portfolio is a small company called Intrepid Potash (IPI). IPI produces potash and langbeinite — both primarily used in the agricultural industry as a fertilizer but which also has other uses in the animal feed and oil and gas drilling markets.
I heard about this company from a close college friend, Tarik, who conducted his own original research on the company and I subsequently ran through my own diligence process.
At a very high level, the company’s financial statements indicate an accounting value to shareholders of $396 million, and yet the current market capitalization is only $81 million. In theory, if you were to buy the stock at the current market price of $1.06 per share, you would be receiving 4.89x that in shareholder value (one heck of a safety or profit margin).
However, potash prices are at multi-year lows and the company has been losing money as it seeks to reduce its costs. The question is — will the company lose $300 million or more for shareholders to lose equity in the company from today’s market prices?
There are a couple interesting points about the company.
1. The shareholder accounting value (aka “book value”) of $5.22/share was written down from $12.47/share in December 31, 2014. As potash prices have fallen, the company wrote down or wrote off over $6.83/share in net property, plant, equipment and mineral properties, and non-current deferred tax assets alone.
This write down potentially indicates that the company’s assets are valued conservatively — and that there is potential to add back lost value if potash prices improve and/or the company becomes profitable and realizes lost value in its $150 million in lost deferred tax assets or $450 million in reduced value of its net property, plant, equipment and mineral properties.
2. With such a huge discount to book value, the market is implying that 1) the company’s assets are still overblown despite a huge write down in 2015, 2) the company may never achieve profitability, and/or 3) that the company should be priced for bankruptcy.
I find it hard to believe that the company could rationally have zero other options except losing over $300 million before returning capital to shareholders. Even if the company sold its current properties for half its accounting value, at these levels shareholders could make a 100% or more return after all liabilities are paid off.
Interestingly, on the liabilities front, major debt payments aren’t due until 2020, giving the company more than 3.25 years to find a path to profitability, monetize its inventory or other assets, or for potash prices to recover, although the company does need to renegotiate some debt covenants (more on this later).
And on the point about potash prices, there are indications that potash prices could have hit a bottom — having increased in price these past couple weeks, as producers shutter or idle production facilities, and as players in the industry consolidate or take steps to rationalize supply and demand.
3. Interestingly, the CEO, President and Executive Chair of the company has been a huge buyer of IPI shares since September 2015 when the stock was trading at $7.29 per share. If this insider has been purchasing shares at multiples of the current stock price, and continues to purchase shares (most recently in May 2016), then perhaps he is signaling that he believes the stock is worth more than what the market price is at and he is willing to back it up with personal capital. In my mind, actions speak louder than words.
On a side note, there is a potential catalyst this week that could alleviate the market’s concerns over any bankruptcy possibility. The company has announced that it anticipates revising the terms of its senior notes by September 30, 2016.
Other positive catalysts include: continued increase in potash prices, further cost cutting initiatives from the company, improvement in the agricultural or oil and gas drilling industries, or a potential acquisition or merger offer.
That said, smaller companies have a greater likelihood for fraud compared to larger corporations who are more prominently followed by analysts and major news outlets, potash prices can continue to decrease, the company could be mismanaged, or the company can issue a capital raise and severely dilute existing shareholders.
However, not to downplay the potential downside, but a capital raise would strengthen the company financially and reduce bankruptcy concerns and the fact that the CEO has been acquiring shares gives him less incentive to lie or mismanage the company.
In future posts I will continue to monitor the performance of IPI and may include more components of my investment research process.
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